Risk Factors for Mortality and Respiratory Support in Elderly Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 in Korea

Clinical Manifestations and Outcomes of Older Patients with COVID-19: A Comprehensive Review

The consequences of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly severe in older adults with a disproportionate number of severe and fatal outcomes. Therefore, this integrative review aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the clinical characteristics, management approaches, and prognosis of older patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Common clinical presentations in older patients include fever, cough, and dyspnea. Additionally, preexisting comorbidities, especially diabetes and pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases, were frequently observed and associated with adverse outcomes. Management strategies varied, however, early diagnosis, vigilant monitoring, and multidisciplinary care were identified as key factors for enhancing patient outcomes. Nonetheless, the prognosis remains guarded for older patients, with increased rates of hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. However, timely therapeutic interventions, especially antiviral and supportive treatments, have demonstrated some efficacy in mitigating the severe consequences in this age group. In conclusion, while older adults remain highly susceptible to severe outcomes from COVID-19, early intervention, rigorous monitoring, and comprehensive care can play a pivotal role in improving their clinical outcomes.

The Association of Hypertension with Increased Mortality Rate During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Update with Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The impact of multiple risk factors on COVID-19 mortality has been previously reported in multiple systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive update on the association between hypertension (HTN) and mortality in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed and followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) guidelines. A search was achieved using PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Databases for research publications on hypertension, COVID-19, and mortality published between December 2019 and August 2022.

RESULTS

A total of 23 observational studies involving 611,522 patients from 5 countries (China, Korea, the UK, Australia, and the USA) were included in our study. The confirmed number of COVID-19 with HTN cases in each study ranged from 5 to 9964. The mortality ranged from 0.17% to 31% in different studies. Pooled results show that the mortality rate of COVID-19 among the included studies ranges from a minimum of 0.39 (95% CI 0.13-1.12) to a maximum of 5.74 (95% CI 3.77-8.74). Out of the 611,522 patients, 3119 died which resulted in an overall mortality prevalence of 0.5%. Subgroup analyses indicated that patients with COVID-19 who have hypertension and male patients had slightly less risk of mortality than female patients [the percentage of men > 50%; OR 1.33: 95% CI (1.01, 1.76); the percentage of men ≤ 50%: OR 2.26; and 95% CI (1.15, 4.48)]. Meta-regression analysis results also showed a statistically significant association between hypertension and COVID-19 mortality.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that hypertension may not be the only risk factor associated with the increased mortality rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, a combination of other comorbidities and old age appears to increase the risk of mortality from COVID-19. The impact of hypertension on mortality rate among COVID-19 patients.

Risk factors associated with mortality among elderly patients with COVID-19: Data from 55 intensive care units in Spain

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Critically-ill elderly ICU patients with COVID-19 have poor outcomes. We aimed to compare the rates of in-hospital mortality between non-elderly and elderly critically-ill COVID-19 ventilated patients, as well as to analyze the characteristics, secondary outcomes and independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality of elderly ventilated patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a multicentre, observational cohort study including consecutive critically-ill patients admitted to 55 Spanish ICUs due to severe COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation (non-invasive respiratory support [NIRS; include non-invasive mechanical ventilation and high-flow nasal cannula] and invasive mechanical ventilation [IMV]) between February 2020 and October 2021.

RESULTS

Out of 5,090 critically-ill ventilated patients, 1,525 (27%) were aged ≥70 years (554 [36%] received NIRS and 971 [64%] received IMV. In the elderly group, median age was 74 years (interquartile range 72-77) and 68% were male. Overall in-hospital mortality was 31% (23% in patients <70 years and 50% in those ≥70 years; p<0.001). In-hospital mortality in the group ≥70 years significantly varied according to the modality of ventilation (40% in NIRS vs. 55% in IMV group; p<0.001). Factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly ventilated patients were age (sHR 1.07 [95%CI 1.05-1.10], p<0.001); previous admission within the last 30 days (sHR 1.40 [95%CI 1.04-1.89], p = 0.027); chronic heart disease (sHR 1.21 [95%CI 1.01-1.44], p = 0.041); chronic renal failure (sHR 1.43 [95%CI 1.12- 1.82], p = 0.005); platelet count (sHR 0.98 [95% CI 0.98-0.99], p<0.001); IMV at ICU admission (sHR 1.41 [95% CI 1.16- 1.73], p<0.001); and systemic steroids (sHR 0.61 [95%CI 0.48- 0.77], p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Amongst critically-ill COVID-19 ventilated patients, those aged ≥70 years presented significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality than younger patients. Increasing age, previous admission within the last 30 days, chronic heart disease, chronic renal failure, platelet count, IMV at ICU admission and systemic steroids (protective) all comprised independent factors for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients.

Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Mortality in Critical COVID-19 Patients Aged 50 Years or Younger During Omicron Wave in Korea: Comparison With Patients Older Than 50 Years of Age

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused the death of thousands of patients worldwide. Although age is known to be a risk factor for morbidity and mortality in COVID-19 patients, critical illness or death is occurring even in the younger age group as the epidemic spreads. In early 2022, omicron became the dominant variant of the COVID-19 virus in South Korea, and the epidemic proceeded on a large scale. Accordingly, this study aimed to determine whether young adults (aged ≤ 50 years) with critical COVID-19 infection during the omicron period had different characteristics from older patients and to determine the risk factors for mortality in this specific age group.

METHODS

We evaluated 213 critical adult patients (high flow nasal cannula or higher respiratory support) hospitalized for polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 in nine hospitals in South Korea between February 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022. Demographic characteristics, including body mass index (BMI) and vaccination status; underlying diseases; clinical features and laboratory findings; clinical course; treatment received; and outcomes were collected from electronic medical records (EMRs) and analyzed according to age and mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, 71 critically ill patients aged ≤ 50 years were enrolled, and 142 critically ill patients aged over 50 years were selected through 1:2 matching based on the date of diagnosis. The most frequent underlying diseases among those aged ≤ 50 years were diabetes and hypertension, and all 14 patients who died had either a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m² or an underlying disease. The total case fatality rate among severe patients (S-CFR) was 31.0%, and the S-CFR differed according to age and was higher than that during the delta period. The S-CFR was 19.7% for those aged ≤ 50 years, 36.6% for those aged > 50 years, and 38.1% for those aged ≥ 65 years. In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.084; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.043-1.127), initial low-density lipoprotein > 600 IU/L (OR, 4.782; 95% CI, 1.584-14.434), initial C-reactive protein > 8 mg/dL (OR, 2.940; 95% CI, 1.042-8.293), highest aspartate aminotransferase > 200 IU/L (OR, 12.931; 95% CI, 1.691-98.908), and mechanical ventilation implementation (OR, 3.671; 95% CI, 1.294-10.420) were significant independent predictors of mortality in critical COVID-19 patients during the omicron wave. A similar pattern was shown when analyzing the data by age group, but most had no statistical significance owing to the small number of deaths in the young critical group. Although the vaccination completion rate of all the patients (31.0%) was higher than that in the delta wave period (13.6%), it was still lower than that of the general population. Further, only 15 (21.1%) critically ill patients aged ≤ 50 years were fully vaccinated. Overall, the severity of hospitalized critical patients was significantly higher than that in the delta period, indicating that it was difficult to find common risk factors in the two periods only with a simple comparison.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the S-CFR of critically ill COVID-19 patients in the omicron period was higher than that in the delta period, especially in those aged ≤ 50 years. All of the patients who died had an underlying disease or obesity. In the same population, the vaccination rate was very low compared to that in the delta wave, indicating that non-vaccination significantly affected the progression to critical illness. Notably, there was a lack of prescription for Paxlovid for these patients although they satisfied the prescription criteria. Early diagnosis and active initial treatment was necessary, along with the proven methods of vaccination and personal hygiene. Further studies are needed to determine how each variant affects critically ill patients.

Development and validation of a prediction model for mechanical ventilation based on comorbidities in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

Background

Timely recognition of respiratory failure and the need for mechanical ventilation is crucial in managing patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and reducing hospital mortality rate. A risk stratification tool could assist to avoid clinical deterioration of patients with COVID-19 and optimize allocation of scarce resources. Therefore, we aimed to develop a prediction model for early identification of patients with COVID-19 who may require mechanical ventilation.

Methods

We included patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in United States. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from the records of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database in 2020. Model construction involved the use of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariable logistic regression. The model's performance was evaluated based on discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

Results

The training set comprised 73,957 patients (5,971 requiring mechanical ventilation), whereas the validation set included 10,428 (887 requiring mechanical ventilation). The prediction model incorporating age, sex, and 11 other comorbidities (deficiency anemias, congestive heart failure, coagulopathy, dementia, diabetes with chronic complications, complicated hypertension, neurological disorders unaffecting movement, obesity, pulmonary circulation disease, severe renal failure, and weight loss) demonstrated moderate discrimination (area under the curve, 0.715; 95% confidence interval, 0.709-0.722), good calibration (Brier score = 0.070, slope = 1, intercept = 0) and a clinical net benefit with a threshold probability ranged from 2 to 34% in the training set. Similar model's performances were observed in the validation set.

Conclusion

A robust prognostic model utilizing readily available predictors at hospital admission was developed for the early identification of patients with COVID-19 who may require mechanical ventilation. Application of this model could support clinical decision-making to optimize patient management and resource allocation.

High potential of technology to face new respiratory viruses: mechanical ventilation devices for effective healthcare to next pandemic emergencies

Some countries in the presence of unforeseen Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have experienced lower total deaths, though higher numbers of COVID-19 related infections. Results here suggest that one of the explanations is the critical role of ventilator technology in clinical health environment to cope with the initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Statistical evidence shows that a large number of ventilators or breathing devices in countries (26.76 units per 100,000 inhabitants) is associated with a fatality rate of 1.44% (December 2020), whereas a higher fatality rate given by 2.46% is in nations with lower numbers of ventilator devices (10.38 average units per 100,000 people). These findings suggest that a large number of medical ventilators in clinical setting has a high potential for more efficient healthcare and improves the effective preparedness of crisis management to cope with new respiratory pandemic diseases in society. Hence, a forward-thinking and technology-oriented strategy in healthcare sector, based on investments in high-tech ventilator devices and other new medical technologies, can help clinicians deliver effective care and reduce negative effects of present and future respiratory infectious diseases, in particular when new drugs and appropriate treatments are missing in clinical environment to face unknown respiratory viral agents .

Effectiveness of high-flow nasal cannula therapy on clinical outcomes in adults with COVID-19: A systematic review

Introduction/Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has high transmissibility and mortality rates. High-flow nasal cannula therapy (HFNC) might reduce the need for orotracheal intubation, easing the burden on the health system caused by COVID-19. The objective of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of HFNC in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Specifically, the present study explores the effects of HFNC on rates of mortality, intubation and intensive care units (ICU) length of stay. The present study also seeks to define predictors of success and failure of HFNC.

Methods

A systematic literature search was conducted in the PubMed, EMBASE and SCOPUS databases, and the study was prepared according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Study quality was assessed using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Study Quality Assessment Tools.

Results

The search identified 1,476 unique titles; 95 articles received full-text reviews and 40 studies were included in this review. HFNC was associated with a reduction in the rate of orotracheal intubation, notably when compared to conventional oxygen therapy. Studies reported inconsistency in whether HFNC reduced ICU length of stay or mortality rates. Among the predictors of HFNC failure/success, a ratio of oxygen saturation index of approximately 5 or more was associated with HFNC success.

Conclusion

In adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19, HFNC may prove effective in reducing the rate of orotracheal intubation. The ratio of the oxygen saturation index was the parameter most examined as a predictor of HFNC success. Low-level research designs, inherent study weaknesses and inconsistent findings made it impossible to conclude whether HFNC reduces ICU length of stay or mortality. Future studies should employ higher level research designs.

The global case fatality rate due to COVID-19 in hospitalized elderly patients by sex, year, gross domestic product, and continent: A systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

Background

Although elderly people are at a huge risk of mortality due to COVID-19, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in hospitalized elderly patients is poorly investigated. This meta-analysis and meta-regression aimed to generate pooled CFR due to COVID-19 in hospitalized elderly patients by sex, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), year, and continent and also to explain the potential source of the heterogeneity and variations in the pooled estimation of COVID-19 CFR.

Methods

We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Embase up to 31 July 2022. Eligibility assessment of records was performed independently in a blinded, standardized way by two reviewers. Meta-analysis and Meta-regression analysis were carried out to estimate pooled CFR and the potential sources of the heterogeneity.

Results

The study included 5683 confirmed hospitalized elderly COVID-19 patients, 1809 deaths, and 19 original articles from 10 countries. The pooled estimate of the overall CFR, and by male and female sexes were 29%, 34%, and 24%, respectively. We found CFR was decreased by increasing female sex proportion, GDP, and year of publication. Multivariate meta-regression analysis indicated that the age and sex of patients, continent, GDP, and year of the publication together explained the majority of the heterogeneity and variations in the pooled estimate of the hospitalized elderly COVID-19 CFR.

Conclusions

This review provided reliable pooled CFR measures for hospitalized elderly patients with COVID-19. Although COVID-19 fatality has decreased in hospitalized elderly patients over time, it is still high in hospitalized elderly patients and needs advanced treatment support.

Catastrophic COVID-19 Delta Variant Surge in French West Indies: Report of an ICU Triage Policy

OBJECTIVES

Here, we report the management of a catastrophic COVID-19 Delta variant surge, which overloaded ICU capacity, using crisis standards of care (CSC) based on a multiapproach protocol.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

University Hospital of Guadeloupe.

PATIENTS

This study retrospectively included all patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia between August 11, 2021, and September 10, 2021, and were eligible for ICU admission.

INTERVENTION

Based on age, comorbidities, and disease severity, patients were assigned to three groups: Green (ICU admission as soon as possible), Orange (ICU admission after the admission of all patients in the Green group), and Red (no ICU admission).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Among the 328 patients eligible for ICU admission, 100 (30%) were assigned to the Green group, 116 (35%) to the Orange group, and 112 (34%) to the Red group. No patient in the Green group died while waiting for an ICU bed, whereas 14 patients (12%) in the Orange group died while waiting for an ICU bed. The 90-day mortality rates were 24%, 37%, and 78% in the Green, Orange, and Red groups, respectively. A total of 130 patients were transferred to the ICU, including 79 from the Green group, 51 from the Orange group, and none from the Red group. Multivariate analysis revealed that among patients admitted to the ICU, death was independently associated with a longer time between ICU referral and ICU admission, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, and the number of comorbidities, but not with triage group.

CONCLUSIONS

CSC based on a multiapproach protocol allowed admission of all patients with a good prognosis. Higher mortality was associated with late admission, rather than triage group.

Predictors of Intensive Care Unit Admission in Patients with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become the leading source of pneumonia outbreaks in the world. The present study aimed to compare the condition of intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU COVID-19 patients in terms of epidemiological and clinical features, laboratory findings, and outcomes in three cities across Iran.

Methods

In a cross-sectional study, 195 COVID-19 patients admitted to five hospitals across Iran during March-April 2020 were recruited. Collected information included demographic data, laboratory findings, symptoms, medical history, and outcomes. Data were analyzed using SPSS software with t test or Mann-Whitney U test (continuous data) and Chi square test or Fisher's exact test (categorical variables). P<0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Of the 195 patients, 57.4% were men, and 67.7% had at least one comorbidity. The prevalence of stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and autoimmune diseases was higher in ICU than in non-ICU patients (P=0.042, P=0.020, and P=0.002, respectively). Compared with non-ICU, ICU patients had significantly higher white blood cell (WBC) count (P=0.008), cardiac troponin concentrations (P=0.040), lactate dehydrogenase levels (P=0.027), erythrocyte sedimentation rates (P=0.008), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (P=0.029), but lower hematocrit levels (P=0.001). The mortality rate in ICU and non-ICU patients was 48.1% and 6.1%, respectively. The risk factors for mortality included age>40 years, body mass index<18 Kg/m², hypertension, coronary artery disease, fever, cough, dyspnea, ST-segment changes, pericardial effusion, and a surge in WBC and C-reactive protein, aspartate aminotransferase, and BUN.

Conclusion

A high index of suspicion for ICU admission should be maintained in patients with positive clinical and laboratory predictive factors.

In-hospital mortality prediction using frailty scale and severity score in elderly patients with severe COVID-19

Background

Elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a high disease severity and mortality. However, the use of the frailty scale and severity score to predict in-hospital mortality in the elderly is not well established. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the use of these scores in COVID-19 cases in the elderly.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective study included severe COVID-19 patients admitted to seven hospitals in Korea from February 2020 to February 2021. We evaluated patients’ Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score; confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years of age and older (CURB-65) score; modified early warning score (MEWS); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; clinical frailty scale (CFS) score; and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We evaluated the predictive value using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

The study included 318 elderly patients with severe COVID-19 of whom 237 (74.5%) were survivors and 81 (25.5%) were non-survivors. The non-survivor group was older and had more comorbidities than the survivor group. The CFS, CCI, APACHE II, SOFA, CURB-65, and MEWS scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. When analyzed using the ROC curve, SOFA score showed the best performance in predicting the prognosis of elderly patients (area under the curve=0.766, P<0.001). CFS and SOFA scores were associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

The SOFA score is an efficient tool for assessing in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with severe COVID-19.

Impact of Mediastinal Lymphadenopathy on the Severity of COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Nationwide Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

We analyzed the differences between clinical characteristics and computed tomography (CT) findings in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to establish potential relationships with mediastinal lymphadenopathy and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We compared the clinical characteristics and CT findings of COVID-19 patients from a nationwide multicenter cohort who were grouped based on the presence or absence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy. Differences between clinical characteristics and CT findings in these groups were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the impact of mediastinal lymphadenopathy on clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Of the 344 patients included in this study, 53 (15.4%) presented with mediastinal lymphadenopathy. The rate of diffuse alveolar damage pattern pneumonia and the visual CT scores were significantly higher in patients with mediastinal lymphadenopathy than in those without (P < 0.05). A positive correlation between the number of enlarged mediastinal lymph nodes and visual CT scores was noted in patients with mediastinal lymphadenopathy (Spearman's ρ = 0.334, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that mediastinal lymphadenopathy was independently associated with a higher risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (odds ratio, 95% confidence interval; 3.25, 1.06-9.95) but was not significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death in patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 patients with mediastinal lymphadenopathy had a larger extent of pneumonia than those without. Multivariate analysis adjusted for clinical characteristics and CT findings revealed that the presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy was significantly associated with ICU admission.

Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Mortality in Critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients 50 Years of Age or Younger During the Delta Wave: Comparison With Patients > 50 Years in Korea

BACKGROUND

Numerous patients around the globe are dying from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While age is a known risk factor, risk analysis in the young generation is lacking. The present study aimed to evaluate the clinical features and mortality risk factors in younger patients (≤ 50 years) with a critical case of COVID-19 in comparison with those among older patients (> 50 years) in Korea.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of adult patients only in critical condition (requiring high flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy or higher respiratory support) hospitalized with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 at 11 hospitals in Korea from July 1, 2021 to November 30, 2021 when the delta variant was a dominant strain. Patients' electronic medical records were reviewed to identify clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

During the study period, 448 patients were enrolled. One hundred and forty-two were aged 50 years or younger (the younger group), while 306 were above 50 years of age (the older group). The most common pre-existing conditions in the younger group were diabetes mellitus and hypertension, and 69.7% of the patients had a body mass index (BMI) > 25 kg/m². Of 142 younger patients, 31 of 142 patients (21.8%, 19 women) did not have these pre-existing conditions. The overall case fatality rate among severity cases was 21.0%, and it differed according to age: 5.6% (n = 8/142) in the younger group, 28.1% in the older group, and 38% in the ≥ 65 years group. Age (odds ratio [OR], 7.902; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.754-18.181), mechanical ventilation therapy (OR, 17.233; 95% CI, 8.439-35.192), highest creatinine > 1.5 mg/dL (OR, 17.631; 95% CI, 8.321-37.357), and combined blood stream infection (OR, 7.092; 95% CI, 1.061-18.181) were identified as independent predictors of mortality in total patients. Similar patterns were observed in age-specific analyses, but most results were statistically insignificant in multivariate analysis due to the low number of deaths in the younger group. The full vaccination rate was very low among study population (13.6%), and only three patients were fully vaccinated, with none of the patients who died having been fully vaccinated in the younger group. Seven of eight patients who died had a pre-existing condition or were obese (BMI > 25 kg/m²), and the one remaining patient died from a secondary infection.

CONCLUSION

About 22% of the patients in the young critical group did not have an underlying disease or obesity, but the rate of obesity (BMI > 25 kg/m²) was high, with a fatality rate of 5.6%. The full vaccination rate was extremely low compared to the general population of the same age group, showing that non-vaccination has a grave impact on the progression of COVID-19 to a critical condition. The findings of this study highlight the need for measures to prevent critical progression of COVID-19, such as vaccinations and targeting young adults especially having risk factors.

COVID‐19 mortality and its predictors in the elderly: A systematic review

Background and Aims

Older people have higher rates of comorbidities and may experience more severe inflammatory responses; therefore, are at higher risk of death. Herein, we aimed to systematically review the mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) patients and its predictors in this age group.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct using relevant keywords. Retrieved records underwent a two‐step screening process consisting of title/abstract and full‐text screenings to identify the eligible studies.

Results

Summarizing findings of 35 studies demonstrated that older patients have higher mortality rates compared to the younger population. A review of articles revealed that increasing age, body mass index, a male gender, dementia, impairment or dependency in daily activities, presence of consolidations on chest X‐ray, hypoxemic respiratory failure, and lower oxygen saturation at admission were risk factors for death. High d‐dimer levels, 25‐hydroxy vitamin D serum deficiencies, high C‐reactive protein (≥5 mg/L) levels plus any other abnormalities of lymphocyte, higher blood urea nitrogen or lactate dehydrogenase, and higher platelet count were predictors of poor prognosis and mortality in the elderly. Studies have also shown that previous treatment with renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system inhibitors, pharmacological treatments of respiratory disorders, antibiotics, corticosteroids, vitamin K antagonist, antihistamines, azithromycin, Itolizumab (an anti‐CD6 monoclonal antibody) in combination with other antivirals reduces COVID‐19 worsening and mortality. Vaccination against seasonal influenza might also reduce COVID‐19 mortality.

Conclusion

Overall, a critical consideration is necessary for the care and management of COVID‐19 in the aged population considering the drastic contrasts in manifestation and prognosis compared to other age groups. Mortality from COVID‐19 is independently associated with the patient's age. Elderly patients with COVID‐19 are more vulnerable to poor outcomes. Thus, strict preventive measures, timely diagnosis, and aggressive therapeutic/nontherapeutic care are of great importance to reduce acute respiratory distress syndrome and severe complications in older people.

Impact of diabetes on COVID-19 mortality and hospital outcomes from a global perspective: An umbrella systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

To date, COVID-19 has claimed 4.9 million lives. Diabetes has been identified as an independent risk factor of serious outcomes in people with COVID-19 infection. Whether that holds true across world regions uniformly has not been previously assessed.

METHODS

This study offers the first umbrella systematic review and meta-analysis to analyse the collective and geographically stratified mortality, ICU admission, ventilation requirement, illness severity and discharge rate amongst patients with diabetes. Five databases (EMBASE, MEDLINE, CAB Abstracts, PsychInfo and Web of Science) and 3 additional sources (SSRN's eLibrary, Research Square and MedRxiv) were searched from inception to 30 August 2021. Prospective and retrospective cohort studies, reporting the association between diabetes and one or more COVID-19 hospitalization outcomes, were included. This meta-analysis was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42021278579. Abbreviated MeSH terms used for search were as follows: (Diabetes) AND (2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease), adapted per database requirements. Exclusion criteria exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) none of the primary or secondary outcomes of meta-analysis reported, (2) no confirmed COVID-19 infection (laboratory or clinical) and (3) no unexposed population (solely patients with diabetes included). Quality of the included studies were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) whilst quality of evidence by the GRADE framework. Studies that were clinically homogeneous were pooled. Summative data and heterogeneity were generated by the Cochrane platform RevMan (V. 5.4).

RESULTS

Overall, 158 observational studies were included, with a total of 270,212 of participants, median age 59 [53-65 IQR] of who 56.5% were male. A total of 22 studies originated from EU, 90 from Far East, 16 from Middle East and 30 from America. Data were synthesized with mixed heterogeneity across outcomes. Pooled results highlighted those patients with diabetes were at a higher risk of COVID-19-related mortality, OR 1.87 [95%CI 1.61, 2.17]. ICU admissions increased across all studies for patients with diabetes, OR 1.59 [95%CI 1.15, 2.18], a result that was mainly skewed by Far East-originating studies, OR 1.94 [95%CI 1.51, 2.49]. Ventilation requirements were also increased amongst patients with diabetes worldwide, OR 1.44 [95%CI 1.20, 1.73] as well as their presentation with severe or critical condition, OR 2.88 [95%CI 2.29, 3.63]. HbA1C levels under <70 mmol and metformin use constituted protective factors in view of COVID-19 mortality, whilst the inverse was true for concurrent insulin use.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst diabetes constitutes a poor prognosticator for various COVID-19 infection outcomes, variability across world regions is significant and may skew overall trends.

COVID-19 mortality and its predictors in the elderly: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Older people have higher rates of comorbidities and may experience more severe inflammatory responses; therefore, are at higher risk of death. Herein, we aimed to systematically review the mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and its predictors in this age group.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct using relevant keywords. Retrieved records underwent a two-step screening process consisting of title/abstract and full-text screenings to identify the eligible studies.

RESULTS

Summarizing findings of 35 studies demonstrated that older patients have higher mortality rates compared to the younger population. A review of articles revealed that increasing age, body mass index, a male gender, dementia, impairment or dependency in daily activities, presence of consolidations on chest X-ray, hypoxemic respiratory failure, and lower oxygen saturation at admission were risk factors for death. High d-dimer levels, 25-hydroxy vitamin D serum deficiencies, high C-reactive protein (≥5 mg/L) levels plus any other abnormalities of lymphocyte, higher blood urea nitrogen or lactate dehydrogenase, and higher platelet count were predictors of poor prognosis and mortality in the elderly. Studies have also shown that previous treatment with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors, pharmacological treatments of respiratory disorders, antibiotics, corticosteroids, vitamin K antagonist, antihistamines, azithromycin, Itolizumab (an anti-CD6 monoclonal antibody) in combination with other antivirals reduces COVID-19 worsening and mortality. Vaccination against seasonal influenza might also reduce COVID-19 mortality.

CONCLUSION

Overall, a critical consideration is necessary for the care and management of COVID-19 in the aged population considering the drastic contrasts in manifestation and prognosis compared to other age groups. Mortality from COVID-19 is independently associated with the patient's age. Elderly patients with COVID-19 are more vulnerable to poor outcomes. Thus, strict preventive measures, timely diagnosis, and aggressive therapeutic/nontherapeutic care are of great importance to reduce acute respiratory distress syndrome and severe complications in older people.

COVID-19 Trials: Who Participates and Who Benefits?

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on older adults and racial and ethnic minority individuals in the United States. This article reviews a COVID-19 therapeutics trial conducted at the authors’ institution to examine the low enrollment of groups particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. They reflect on the potential lack of impact that effective COVID-19 therapeutics may have on mortality if vulnerable groups are not enrolled in trials.

Objectives

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disproportionately afflicted vulnerable populations. Older adults, particularly residents of nursing facilities, represent a small percentage of the population but account for 40% of mortality from COVID-19 in the United States. Racial and ethnic minority individuals, particularly Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous Americans have experienced higher rates of infection and death than the White population. Although there has been an unprecedented explosion of clinical trials to examine potential therapies, participation by members of these vulnerable communities is crucial to obtaining data generalizable to those communities.

Methods

We undertook an open-label, factorial randomized clinical trial examining hydroxychloroquine and/or azithromycin for hospitalized patients.

Results

Of 53 screened patients, 11 (21%) were enrolled. Ten percent (3/31) of Black patients were enrolled, 33% (7/21) of White patients, and 50% (6/12) of Hispanic patients. Forty-seven percent (25/53) of patients declined participation despite eligibility; 58%(18/31) of Black patients declined participation. Forty percent (21/53) of screened patients were from a nursing facility and 10% (2/21) were enrolled. Enrolled patients had fewer comorbidities than nonenrolled patients: median modified Charlson comorbidity score 2.0 (interquartile range 0–2.5), versus 4.0 (interquartile range 2–6) for nonenrolled patients (P = 0.006). The limitations of the study were the low participation rate and the multiple treatment trials concurrently recruiting at our institution.

Conclusions

The high rate of nonparticipation in our trial of nursing facility residents and Black people emphasizes the concern that clinical trials for therapeutics may not target key populations with high mortality rates.

Why do men have worse COVID-19-related outcomes? A systematic review and meta-analysis with sex adjusted for age

We aimed to study the mechanism behind worse coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) outcomes in men and whether the differences between sexes regarding mortality as well as disease severity are influenced by sex hormones. To do so, we used age as a covariate in the meta-regression and subgroup analyses. This was a systematic search and meta-analysis of observational cohorts reporting COVID-19 outcomes. The PubMed (Medline) and Cochrane Library databases were searched. The primary outcome was COVID-19-associated mortality and the secondary outcome was COVID-19 severity. The study was registered at PROSPERO: 42020182924. For mortality, men had a relative risk of 1.36 (95%CI: 1.17 to 1.59; I2 63%, P for heterogeneity <0.01) compared to women. Age was not a significant covariate in meta-analysis heterogeneity (P=0.393) or subgroup analysis. For disease severity, being male was associated with a relative risk of 1.29 (95%CI: 1.19 to 1.40; I2 48%, P for heterogeneity <0.01) compared to the relative risk of women. Again, age did not influence the outcomes of the meta-regression (P=0.914) or subgroup analysis. Men had a higher risk of COVID-19 mortality and severity regardless of age, decreasing the odds of hormonal influences in the described outcomes.

Non-invasive respiratory support in the management of acute COVID-19 pneumonia: considerations for clinical practice and priorities for research

Non-invasive respiratory support (NIRS) has increasingly been used in the management of COVID-19-associated acute respiratory failure, but questions remain about the utility, safety, and outcome benefit of NIRS strategies. We identified two randomised controlled trials and 83 observational studies, compromising 13 931 patients, that examined the effects of NIRS modalities-high-flow nasal oxygen, continuous positive airway pressure, and bilevel positive airway pressure-on patients with COVID-19. Of 5120 patients who were candidates for full treatment escalation, 1880 (37%) progressed to invasive mechanical ventilation and 3658 of 4669 (78%) survived to study end. Survival was 30% among the 1050 patients for whom NIRS was the stated ceiling of treatment. The two randomised controlled trials indicate superiority of non-invasive ventilation over high-flow nasal oxygen in reducing the need for intubation. Reported complication rates were low. Overall, the studies indicate that NIRS in patients with COVID-19 is safe, improves resource utilisation, and might be associated with better outcomes. To guide clinical decision making, prospective, randomised studies are needed to address timing of intervention, optimal use of NIRS modalities-alone or in combination-and validation of tools such as oxygenation indices, response to a trial of NIRS, and inflammatory markers as predictors of treatment success.

Case fatality, mortality, socio-demographic, and screening of COVID-19 in the elderly population: A population-based registry study in Iran

We aimed to investigate COVID‐19 case fatality rate (CFR), mortality, and screening in the older population of East Azerbaijan Province. We conducted a population‐based registry study from Death Registration System in the elderly population (N = 433 445) from the outbreak that emerged up to May 30, 2021 (before vaccination). We analyzed CFR and mortality rates due to COVID‐19 as well as the case findings and characteristics in the elderly population. Logistic regression analysis was carried out for the association between COVID‐19 mortality and effective factors. During the study, the province had 18 079 confirmed cases and 4390 deaths. The male to female CFR risk ratio was 3.2. The overall CFR and mortality rates were 24% and 1%, respectively. CFR and mortality ranged from 9.56% to 0.37% in the 60–64 age group to 70% and 2.6% in the age group ≥85 years, respectively. We found a significant trend in CFR and mortality of COVID‐19 with advanced age. Male sex, advanced age, marital status, and living alone were associated with an increased risk of COVID‐19 fatality. COVID‐19 mortality measures were higher in the older population of this province. Advanced treatment supports and interventions are needed to reduce mortality rates of COVID‐19 in the elderly population.

Quantifying mortality measures due to COVID‐19 infection among older people is an essential step in COVID‐19 prevention and planning for health managers and policymakers. In the aging population, mortality measures and characteristics of COVID‐19 are poorly understood at the population level.

The overall case fatality and mortality rates were 24% and 1% in the elderly population, respectively. Case fatality rate ranged from 9.56% in the 60–64 age group to 70% in the age group ≥85. The male to female case fatality risk ratio was 3.2. Male sex, advanced age, marital status, and living alone were associated with an increased risk of COVID‐19 fatality.

Advanced treatment supports and interventions are needed to reduce mortality rates of COVID‐19 in the aging population.

Diabetes, Metformin and the Clinical Course of Covid-19: Outcomes, Mechanisms and Suggestions on the Therapeutic Use of Metformin

Objectives: Pre-existing or new diabetes confers an adverse prognosis in people with Covid-19. We reviewed the clinical literature on clinical outcomes in metformin-treated subjects presenting with Covid-19. Methods: Structured PubMed search: metformin AND [covid (ti) OR covid-19 (ti) OR covid19 (ti) OR coronavirus (ti) OR SARS-Cov2 (ti)], supplemented with another PubMed search: "diabetes AND [covid OR covid-19 OR covid19 OR coronavirus (i) OR SARS-Cov2 (ti)]" (limited to "Clinical Study", "Clinical Trial", "Controlled Clinical Trial", "Meta-Analysis", "Observational Study", "Randomized Controlled Trial", "Systematic Review"). Results: The effects of metformin on the clinical course of Covid-19 were evaluated in retrospective analyses: most noted improved clinical outcomes amongst type 2 diabetes patients treated with metformin at the time of hospitalisation with Covid-19 infection. These outcomes include reduced admission into intensive care and reduced mortality in subgroups with versus without metformin treatment. Conclusion: The pleiotropic actions of metformin associated with lower background cardiovascular risk may mediate some of these effects, for example reductions of insulin resistance, systemic inflammation and hypercoagulability. Modulation by metformin of the cell-surface ACE2 protein (a key binding target for SARS-CoV 2 spike protein) via the AMP kinase pathway may be involved. While pre-existing metformin treatment offers potentially beneficial effects and can be continued when Covid-19 infection is not severe, reports of increased acidosis and lactic acidosis in patients with more severe Covid-19 disease remind that metformin should be withdrawn in patients with hypoxaemia or acute renal disease. Prospective study of the clinical and metabolic effects of metformin in Covid-19 is warranted.

Clinical Outcomes of Older Persons and Persons with Dementia Admitted for Coronavirus Disease 2019: Findings from the Philippine CORONA Study

INTRODUCTION

The Philippine CORONA Study was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study of 10,881 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) admissions between February and December 2020.

METHODS

Subgroup analysis was done on clinical outcomes of mortality, respiratory failure, duration of ventilator dependence, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, length of ICU stay, and length of hospital stay among older persons and persons with dementia.

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard ratios for mortality among the mild and severe cases were significantly higher by 3.93, 95% CI [2.81, 5.50] and by 1.81, 95% CI [1.43, 2.93], respectively, in older persons compared to younger adults. The adjusted hazard ratios for respiratory failure in older persons were increased by 2.65, 95% CI [1.92, 3.68] and by 1.27, 95% CI [1.01, 1.59] among the mild and severe cases, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for ICU admission in older persons was higher by 1.95, 95% CI [1.47, 2.59] among the mild cases. The adjusted hazard ratios for mortality and ICU admission in persons with dementia were higher by 7.25, 95% CI [2.67, 19.68] and by 4.37, 95% CI [1.08, 17.63], respectively, compared to those without dementia.

CONCLUSION

Older age and dementia significantly increased the risk of mortality, respiratory failure, and ICU admission among COVID-19 patients.

Factors Associated for Mortality of Older People With COVID 19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background

Whilst people of all ages are affected in some way by COVID-19 virus, older people are at a high mortality risk. This study aimed to systematically review the numerous factors associated with mortality among COVID-19 infected older people.

Method

PubMed and Science Direct were searched from inception to the April 15, 2021. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 statement and Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool to assess the methodological quality of the included studies.

Results

Of the 4957 studies identified, 20 were included in the qualitative analysis, while 10 were included in the quantitative analysis. Male sex (OR = 2.22, 95% CI = 1.23-3.99), age (over 75 years old) (OR = 3.36, 95% CI = 2.30-4.90), Dementia (OR = 3.69, 95% CI = 1.99-6.83) and Dyspnoea (OR = 3.16, 95% CI = 2.61-3.82), were found to be significantly associated with mortality. There is no significant association between Diabetes, or Hypertension.

Conclusion

Older age, male gender, dyspnoea and dementia were associated with a greater risk of death of older people from COVID-19 infection. These findings may help health care professionals to identify high-risk groups, facilitate appropriate remedial measures, and control mortality among older people.

Age-related mortality in 61,993 confirmed COVID-19 cases over three epidemic waves in Aragon, Spain. Implications for vaccination programmes

BACKGROUND

Risk for severe COVID-19 increases with age. Different vaccination strategies are currently being considered, including those aimed at slowing down transmission and those aimed at providing direct protection to those most at risk.

METHODS

The objectives of the current study were i) to assess age-related incidence and survival between PCR-diagnosed COVID-19 cases (n = 61,993) in the Autonomous Community of Aragon from March to November 2020, and ii) to characterize age differences regarding the course of the disease in hospitalized patients in a tertiary university hospital.

RESULTS

We found a similar incidence of COVID-19 in individuals between 10 and 79 years. Incidence increased in those over 80 years possibly because of the elevated transmission within the nursing homes. We observed a profound disparity among age groups; case fatality rates (CFRs) were near 0 in cases younger than 39 years throughout different waves. In contrast, there was an age-dependent and progressive increase in the CFRs, especially during the first pandemic wave. SARS-CoV-2 infection caused a more severe and rapid progression in older patients. The elderly required faster hospitalization, presented more serious symptoms on admission, and had a worse clinical course. Hospitalized older individuals, even without comorbidities, had an increased mortality risk directly associated with their age. Lastly, the existence of comorbidities dramatically increased the CFRs in the elderly, especially in males.

CONCLUSION

The elevated incidence of COVID-19 and the vulnerability of the elderly call for their prioritization in vaccination and targeted prevention measures specifically focused on this aged population.

Comparison of Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Younger and Elderly Patients with Severe COVID-19 in Korea: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

Old age is associated with disease severity and poor prognosis among coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases; however, characteristics of elderly patients with severe COVID-19 are limited. We aimed to assess the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 at tertiary care centers in South Korea. This retrospective multicenter study included patients with severe COVID-19 who were admitted at seven hospitals in South Korea from 2 February 2020 to 28 February 2021. The Cox regression analyses were performed to assess factors associated with the in-hospital mortality. Of 488 patients with severe COVID-19, 318 (65.2%) were elderly (≥65 years). The older patient group had more underlying diseases and a higher severity score than the younger patient group. The older patient group had a higher in-hospital mortality rate than the younger patient group (25.5% versus 4.7%, p-value < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality risk factors among patients with severe COVID-19 included age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score, presence of diabetes and chronic obstructive lung disease, high white blood cell count, low neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and platelet count, do-not-resuscitate order, and treatment with invasive mechanical ventilation. In addition to old age, disease severity and examination results must be considered in treatment decision-making.

Comparison of the Characteristics of Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Korea

PURPOSE

This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the baseline characteristics of asymptomatic patients with coronavirus disease 2019 at admission and to follow-up their clinical manifestations and radiological findings during hospitalization.

METHODS

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who were asymptomatic at admission were divided into two groups-those with no symptoms until discharge (group A) and those who developed symptoms after admission (group B). Patients who could not express their own symptoms were excluded.

RESULTS

Overall, 127 patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 19 and 108 were assigned to groups A and B, respectively. The mean age and median C-reactive protein level were higher in group B than in group A. All patients in group A and one-third of patients in group B had normal initial chest radiographs; 15.8% and 48.1% of patients in groups A and B, respectively, had pneumonia during hospitalization. One patient in group B, whose condition was not severe at the time of admission, deteriorated due to aggravated pneumonia and was transferred to a tertiary hospital.

CONCLUSION

We summarize the clinical characteristics during hospitalization of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who were purely asymptomatic at the time of admission. The majority of asymptomatic patients with coronavirus disease 2019 were discharged without significant events during hospitalization. However, it may be difficult to predict subsequent events from initial chest radiographs or oxygen saturation at admission.

Improving the early identification of COVID-19 pneumonia: a narrative review

Delayed presentation of COVID-19 pneumonia increases the risk of mortality and need for high-intensity healthcare. Conversely, early identification of COVID-19 pneumonia grants an opportunity to intervene early and thus prevent more complicated, protracted and less successful hospital admissions. To improve the earlier detection of COVID-19 pneumonia in the community we provide a narrative review of current evidence examining the clinical parameters associated with early disease progression. Through an evolving literature review, we examined: the symptoms that may suggest COVID-19 progression; the timing of deterioration; the utility of basic observations, clinical examination and chest X-ray; the value of postexertion oxygen saturations; and the use of CRP to monitor disease progression. We go on to discuss the challenges in monitoring the COVID-19 patient in the community and discuss thresholds for further assessment. Confusion, persistent fever and shortness of breath were identified as worrying symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 disease progression necessitating urgent clinical contact. Importantly, a significant proportion of COVID-19 pneumonia patients appear not to suffer dyspnoea despite severe disease. Patients with this asymptomatic hypoxia seem to have a poorer prognosis. Such patients may present with other signs of hypoxia: severe fatigue, exertional fatigue and/or altered mental status. We found duration of symptoms to be largely unhelpful in determining risk, with evidence of deterioration at any point in the disease. Basic clinical parameters (pulse, respiratory rate, blood pressure, temperature and oxygen saturations (SpO₂)) are likely of high value in detecting the deteriorating community COVID-19 patient and/or COVID-19 mimickers/complications (eg, sepsis, bacterial pneumonia and pulmonary embolism). Of these, SpO₂ carried the greatest utility in detecting COVID-19 progression. CRP is an early biochemical parameter predictive of disease progression and used appropriately is likely to contribute to the early identification of COVID-19 pneumonia. Identifying progressive COVID-19 in the community is feasible using basic clinical questions and measurements. As such, if we are to limit the mortality, morbidity and the need for complicated, protracted admissions, monitoring community COVID-19 cases for signs of deterioration to facilitate early intervention is a viable strategy.

Diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, smoking and COVID-19-related mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of observational studies to investigate the association between diabetes, hypertension, body mass index (BMI) or smoking with the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 and to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to these conditions.

METHODS

Relevant observational studies were identified by searches in the PubMed, Cochrane library and Embase databases through 14 November 2020. Random-effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks (SRRs) and 95% CIs. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Cochrane methods and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations framework.

RESULTS

A total of 186 studies representing 210 447 deaths among 1 304 587 patients with COVID-19 were included in this analysis. The SRR for death in patients with COVID-19 was 1.54 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.64, I2=92%, n=145, low certainty) for diabetes and 1.42 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.54, I2=90%, n=127, low certainty) for hypertension compared with patients without each of these comorbidities. Regarding obesity, the SSR was 1.45 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.61, I2=91%, n=54, high certainty) for patients with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 compared with those with BMI <30 kg/m2 and 1.12 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.17, I2=68%, n=25) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. There was evidence of a J-shaped non-linear dose-response relationship between BMI and mortality from COVID-19, with the nadir of the curve at a BMI of around 22-24, and a 1.5-2-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality with extreme obesity (BMI of 40-45). The SRR was 1.28 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.40, I2=74%, n=28, low certainty) for ever, 1.29 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.62, I2=84%, n=19) for current and 1.25 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.42, I2=75%, n=14) for former smokers compared with never smokers. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death was increased by 14%, 11%, 12% and 7% for diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking, respectively. The proportion of deaths attributable to diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking was 8%, 7%, 11% and 2%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking were associated with higher COVID-19 mortality, contributing to nearly 30% of COVID-19 deaths.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020218115.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Inpatient Mortality Associated With Nosocomial and Community COVID-19 Exposes the Vulnerability of Immunosuppressed Adults

Background

Little is known about the mortality of hospital-acquired (nosocomial) COVID-19 infection globally. We investigated the risk of mortality and critical care admission in hospitalised adults with nosocomial COVID-19, relative to adults requiring hospitalisation due to community-acquired infection.

Methods

We systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed and pre-print literature from 1/1/2020 to 9/2/2021 without language restriction for studies reporting outcomes of nosocomial and community-acquired COVID-19. We performed a random effects meta-analysis (MA) to estimate the 1) relative risk of death and 2) critical care admission, stratifying studies by patient cohort characteristics and nosocomial case definition.

Results

21 studies were included in the primary MA, describing 8,251 admissions across 8 countries during the first wave, comprising 1513 probable or definite nosocomial COVID-19, and 6738 community-acquired cases. Across all studies, the risk of mortality was 1.3 times greater in patients with nosocomial infection, compared to community-acquired (95% CI: 1.005 to 1.683). Rates of critical care admission were similar between groups (Relative Risk, RR=0.74, 95% CI: 0.50 to 1.08). Immunosuppressed patients diagnosed with nosocomial COVID-19 were twice as likely to die in hospital as those admitted with community-acquired infection (RR=2.14, 95% CI: 1.76 to 2.61).

Conclusions

Adults who acquire SARS-CoV-2 whilst already hospitalised are at greater risk of mortality compared to patients admitted following community-acquired infection; this finding is largely driven by a substantially increased risk of death in individuals with malignancy or who had undergone transplantation. These findings inform public health and infection control policy and argue for individualised clinical interventions to combat the threat of nosocomial COVID-19, particularly for immunosuppressed groups.

Systematic Review Registration

PROSPERO CRD42021249023.

Mental and neurological disorders and risk of COVID-19 susceptibility, illness severity and mortality: A systematic review, meta-analysis and call for action

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has evolved into a worldwide pandemic, and has been found to be closely associated with mental and neurological disorders. We aimed to comprehensively quantify the association between mental and neurological disorders, both pre-existing and subsequent, and the risk of susceptibility, severity and mortality of COVID-19.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, and Cochrane library databases for studies published from the inception up to January 16, 2021 and updated at July 7, 2021. Observational studies including cohort and case-control, cross-sectional studies and case series that reported risk estimates of the association between mental or neurological disorders and COVID-19 susceptibility, illness severity and mortality were included. Two researchers independently extracted data and conducted the quality assessment. Based on I2 heterogeneity, we used a random effects model to calculate pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Subgroup analyses and meta-regression analysis were also performed. This study was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD 42021230832).

FINDING

A total of 149 studies (227,351,954 participants, 89,235,737 COVID-19 patients) were included in this analysis, in which 27 reported morbidity (132,727,798), 56 reported illness severity (83,097,968) and 115 reported mortality (88,878,662). Overall, mental and neurological disorders were associated with a significant high risk of infection (pre-existing mental: OR 1·67, 95% CI 1·12-2·49; and pre-existing neurological: 2·05, 1·58-2·67), illness severity (mental: pre-existing, 1·40, 1·25-1·57; sequelae, 4·85, 2·53-9·32; neurological: pre-existing, 1·43, 1·09-1·88; sequelae, 2·17, 1·45-3·24), and mortality (mental: pre-existing, 1·47, 1·26-1·72; neurological: pre-existing, 2·08, 1·61-2·69; sequelae, 2·03, 1·66-2·49) from COVID-19. Subgroup analysis revealed that association with illness severity was stronger among younger COVID-19 patients, and those with subsequent mental disorders, living in low- and middle-income regions. Younger patients with mental and neurological disorders were associated with higher mortality than elders. For type-specific mental disorders, susceptibility to contracting COVID-19 was associated with pre-existing mood disorders, anxiety, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); illness severity was associated with both pre-existing and subsequent mood disorders as well as sleep disturbance; and mortality was associated with pre-existing schizophrenia. For neurological disorders, susceptibility was associated with pre-existing dementia; both severity and mortality were associated with subsequent delirium and altered mental status; besides, mortality was associated with pre-existing and subsequent dementia and multiple specific neurological diseases. Heterogeneities were substantial across studies in most analysis.

INTERPRETATION

The findings show an important role of mental and neurological disorders in the context of COVID-19 and provide clues and directions for identifying and protecting vulnerable populations in the pandemic. Early detection and intervention for neurological and mental disorders are urgently needed to control morbidity and mortality induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there was substantial heterogeneity among the included studies, and the results should be interpreted with caution. More studies are needed to explore long-term mental and neurological sequela, as well as the underlying brain mechanisms for the sake of elucidating the causal pathways for these associations.

FUNDING

This study is supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program of China, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, Special Research Fund of PKUHSC for Prevention and Control of COVID-19, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Baricitinib reduces 30-day mortality in older adults with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Older adults are at the highest risk of severe disease and death due to COVID-19. Randomized data have shown that baricitinib improves outcomes in these patients, but focused stratified analyses of geriatric cohorts are lacking. Our objective was to analyze the efficacy of baricitinib in older adults with COVID-19 moderate-to-severe pneumonia.

METHODS

This is a propensity score [PS]-matched retrospective cohort study. Patients from the COVID-AGE and Alba-Score cohorts, hospitalized for moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia, were categorized in two age brackets of age <70 years old (86 with baricitinib and 86 PS-matched controls) or ≥70 years old (78 on baricitinib and 78 PS-matched controls). Thirty-day mortality rates were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Mean age was 79.1 for those ≥70 years and 58.9 for those <70. Exactly 29.6% were female. Treatment with baricitinib resulted in a significant reduction in death from any cause by 48% in patients aged 70 or older, an 18.5% reduction in 30-day absolute mortality risk (n/N: 16/78 [20.5%] baricitinib, 30/78 [38.5%] in PS-matched controls, p < 0.001) and a lower 30-day adjusted fatality rate (HR 0.21; 95% CI 0.09-0.47; p < 0.001). Beneficial effects on mortality were also observed in the age group <70 (8.1% reduction in 30-day absolute mortality risk; HR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03-0.64; p = 0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

Baricitinib is associated with an absolute mortality risk reduction of 18.5% in adults older than 70 years hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Chronic Diseases as a Predictor for Severity and Mortality of COVID-19: A Systematic Review With Cumulative Meta-Analysis

Introduction: Given the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the consequent global healthcare crisis, there is an urgent need to better understand risk factors for symptom deterioration and mortality among patients with COVID-19. This systematic review aimed to meet the need by determining the predictive value of chronic diseases for COVID-19 severity and mortality.

Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Complete to identify studies published between December 1, 2019, and December 31, 2020. Two hundred and seventeen observational studies from 26 countries involving 624,986 patients were included. We assessed the risk of bias of the included studies and performed a cumulative meta-analysis.

Results: We found that among COVID-19 patients, hypertension was a very common condition and was associated with higher severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and mortality. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was the strongest predictor for COVID-19 severity, admission to ICU, and mortality, while asthma was associated with a reduced risk of COVID-19 mortality. Patients with obesity were at a higher risk of experiencing severe symptoms of COVID-19 rather than mortality. Patients with cerebrovascular disease, chronic liver disease, chronic renal disease, or cancer were more likely to become severe COVID-19 cases and had a greater probability of mortality.

Conclusions: COVID-19 patients with chronic diseases were more likely to experience severe symptoms and ICU admission and faced a higher risk of mortality. Aggressive strategies to combat the COVID-19 pandemic should target patients with chronic diseases as a priority.

New Scoring System for Predicting Mortality in Patients with COVID-19

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a novel mortality scoring system for inpatients with COVID-19 based on simple demographic factors and laboratory findings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed and analyzed data from patients who were admitted and diagnosed with COVID-19 at 10 hospitals in Daegu, South Korea, between January and July 2020. We randomized and assigned patients to the development and validation groups at a 70% to 30% ratio. Each point scored for selected risk factors helped build a new mortality scoring system using Cox regression analysis. We evaluated the accuracy of the new scoring system in the development and validation groups using the area under the curve.

RESULTS

The development group included 1232 patients, whereas the validation group included 528 patients. In the development group, predictors for the new scoring system as selected by Cox proportional hazards model were age ≥70 years, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, dementia, C-reactive protein levels >4 mg/dL, infiltration on chest X-rays at the initial diagnosis, and the need for oxygen support on admission. The areas under the curve for the development and validation groups were 0.914 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.891-0.937] and 0.898 (95% CI 0.854-0.941), respectively. According to our scoring system, COVID-19 mortality was 0.4% for the low-risk group (score 0-3) and 53.7% for the very high-risk group (score ≥11).

CONCLUSION

We developed a new scoring system for quickly and easily predicting COVID-19 mortality using simple predictors. This scoring system can help physicians provide the proper therapy and strategy for each patient.

Mortality-related risk factors of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 42 studies and 423,117 patients

Background

Mortality rates of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) continue to rise across the world. The impact of several risk factors on coronavirus mortality has been previously reported in several meta‐analyses limited by small sample sizes. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarize available findings on the association between comorbidities, complications, smoking status, obesity, gender, age and D-dimer, and risk of mortality from COVID-19 using a large dataset from a number of studies.

Method

Electronic databases including Google Scholar, Cochrane Library, Web of Sciences (WOS), EMBASE, Medline/PubMed, COVID-19 Research Database, and Scopus, were systematically searched till 31 August 2020. We included all human studies regardless of language, publication date or region. Forty-two studies with a total of 423,117 patients met the inclusion criteria. To pool the estimate, a mixed-effect model was used. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated.

Results

The findings of the included studies were consistent in stating the contribution of comorbidities, gender, age, smoking status, obesity, acute kidney injury, and D-dimer as a risk factor to increase the requirement for advanced medical care. The analysis results showed that the pooled prevalence of mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was 17.62% (95% CI 14.26–21.57%, 42 studies and 423,117 patients). Older age has shown increased risk of mortality due to coronavirus and the pooled odds ratio (pOR) and hazard ratio (pHR) were 2.61 (95% CI 1.75–3.47) and 1.31 (95% CI 1.11–1.51), respectively. A significant association were found between COVID-19 mortality and male (pOR = 1.45; 95% CI 1.41–1.51; pHR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.07–1.41), and current smoker (pOR = 1.42; 95% CI 1.01–1.83). Furthermore, risk of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients is highly influenced by patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Cardiovascular Disease (CVD), diabetes, hypertension, obese, cancer, acute kidney injury and increase D-dimer.

Conclusion

Chronic comorbidities, complications, and demographic variables including acute kidney injury, COPD, diabetes, hypertension, CVD, cancer, increased D-dimer, male gender, older age, current smoker, and obesity are clinical risk factors for a fatal outcome associated with coronavirus. The findings could be used for disease’s future research, control and prevention.

High-Flow Nasal Cannula Oxygenation in Older Patients with SARS-CoV-2-Related Acute Respiratory Failure

We aimed to compare the mortality and comfort associated with high-flow nasal cannula oxygenation (HFNCO) and high-concentration mask (HCM) in older SARS-CoV-2 infected patients who were hospitalized in non-intensive care units. In this retrospective cohort study, we included all consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who were hospitalized for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in either an acute geriatric unit or an acute pulmonary care unit, and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We compared the in-hospital prognosis between patients treated with HFNCO and patients treated with HCM. To account for confounders, we created a propensity score for HFNCO, and stabilizing inverse probability of treatment weighting (SIPTW) was applied. From March 2020 to January 2021, 67 patients (median age 87 years, 41 men) were hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2-related ARF, of whom 41 (61%) received HFNCO and 26 (39%) did not. Age and comorbidities did not significantly differ in the two groups, whereas clinical presentation was more severe in the HFNCO group (NEW2 score: 8 (5-11) vs. 7 (5-8), p = 0.02, and Sp02/Fi02: 88 (98-120) vs. 117 (114-148), p = 0.03). Seven (17%) vs. two (5%) patients survived at 30 days in the HFNCO and HCM group, respectively. Overall, after SIPTW, HFNCO was significantly associated with greater survival (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 0.57, 95% CI 0.33-0.99; p = 0.04). HFNCO use was associated with a lower need for morphine (AHR 0.39, 95% CI 0.21-0.71; p = 0.005), but not for midazolam (AHR 0.66, 95% CI 0.37-1.19; p = 0.17). In conclusion, HFNCO use in non-intensive care units may reduce mortality and discomfort in older inpatients with SARS-CoV-2-related ARF.

Mortality in chronic kidney disease patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

At the beginning of 2020, the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to a worldwide pandemic and mass panic. The number of infected people has been increasing exponentially since, and the mortality rate has also been concomitantly increasing. At present, no study has summarized the mortality risk of COVID-19 in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Therefore, the aim of the present study was to conduct a literature review and meta-analysis to understand the frequency of mortality among CKD patients infected with COVID-19. A comprehensive systematic search was conducted on the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases to find articles published until May 15, 2020. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. After careful screening based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 3,867,367 patients from 12 studies were included. The mortality rate was significantly higher among CKD patients with COVID-19 infection than among CKD patients without COVID-19 infection, as indicated by a pooled OR of 5.81 (95% CI 3.78-8.94, P < 0.00001, I2 = 30%). The patients were then stratified into ≥ 70 and < 70 years, and subgroup analysis revealed that among CKD patients with COVID-19 infection, the mortality rate was higher in the < 70 years group (OR 8.69, 95% CI 7.56-9.97, P < 0.0001) than in the ≥ 70 years group (OR 2.44, 95% CI 0.75-6.63, P = 0.15). Thus, COVID-19 patients with CKD have a high mortality risk and require a comprehensive multidisciplinary management strategy.

Predicting hospital mortality in COVID-19 hemodialysis patients with developed scores

Various risk scores such as COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score (COVID-GRAM), quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) have been developed to determine critical illness in hospitalized patients. None of these risk scoring systems was evaluated in HD patients who indeed carry the highest risk of developing critical illnesses. We aimed to evaluate, in hemodialysis (HD) patients with COVID-19, the performance of these scoring systems for the need of intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality. The qCSI, COVID-GRAM, and SII scores of the patients at admission to hospital were calculated and grouped according to the scoring results. The primary outcome of the study was mortality and need of ICU. Critical illness was described as a composition of admission to the ICU, invasive ventilation, or death. It was determined that when the qCSI is over 6.5, the need for ICU increased 13.8 times and mortality increased 21.3 times. When the COVID-GRAM score is >157, the ICU need increased 14.7 times and the mortality increased 33.7 times. We found that the need for ICU increased 4.2 times and mortality increased 3.1 times when the SII score was >1145. These tests, which can be easily calculated, could be used to estimate the risk of developing critical illness among COVID-19 HD patients. Estimating the risk of critical illness could help to reduce mortality in HD patients.

Comparison of Associations Between Glucocorticoids Treatment and Mortality in COVID-19 Patients and SARS Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The response to glucocorticoids treatment may be different between coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched studies on Medline, Embase, EBSCO, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform from 2002 to October 7, 2020. We used fixed-effects and random-effects models to compute the risk ratio of death in the group receiving glucocorticoids treatment and the control group for COVID-19 and SARS, respectively.

RESULTS

Ten trials and 71 observational studies, with a total of 45,935 patients, were identified. Glucocorticoids treatment was associated with decreased all-cause mortality both in COVID-19 (risk ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.94; I2 = 26%) and SARS (0.48; 0.29-0.79; 10%), based on high-quality evidence, as well as decreased all-cause mortality-including composite outcome of COVID-19 (0.89; 0.82-0.98; 0%). In subgroup analyses, all-cause mortality was significantly lower among COVID-19 patients being accompanied by severe ARDS but not mild ARDS, taking low-dose or pulse glucocorticoids, being critically severe but not only severe, being of critical severity and old but not young, being of critical severity and men but not women, non-early taking glucocorticoids, taking dexamethasone or methylprednisolone, and with the increased inflammatory state; but for SARS, lower mortality was observed among those who were taking medium-high dose glucocorticoids, being severe or critically severe, early taking glucocorticoids, and taking methylprednisolone or prednisolone.

CONCLUSIONS

Glucocorticoids treatment reduced mortality in COVID-19 and SARS patients of critical severity; however, different curative effects existed between the two diseases among subpopulations, mainly regarding sex- and age-specific effects, optimal doses, and use timing of glucocorticoids.

The dynamics of inflammatory markers in coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic and high mortality rate among severe or critical COVID-19 is linked with SARS-CoV-2 infection-induced hyperinflammation of the innate and adaptive immune systems and the resulting cytokine storm. This paper attempts to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles, to evaluate the association of inflammatory parameters with the severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

A comprehensive systematic literature search of medical electronic databases including Pubmed/Medline, Europe PMC, and Google Scholar was performed for relevant data published from January 1, 2020 to June 26, 2020. Observational studies reporting clear extractable data on inflammatory parameters in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients were included. Screening of articles, data extraction and quality assessment were carried out by two authors independently. Standardized mean difference (SMD)/mean difference (MD/WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random or fixed-effects models.

RESULTS

A total of 83 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Of which, 54 studies were grouped by severity, 25 studies were grouped by mortality, and 04 studies were grouped by both severity and mortality. Random effect model results demonstrated that patients with severe COVID-19 group had significantly higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-10 (IL-10), interleukin-2R (IL-2R), serum amyloid A (SAA) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) compared to those in the non-severe group. Similarly, the fixed-effect model revealed significant higher ferritin level in the severe group when compared with the non-severe group. Furthermore, the random effect model results demonstrated that the non-survivor group had significantly higher levels of CRP, PCT, IL-6, ferritin, and NLR when compared with the survivor group.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the measurement of these inflammatory parameters could help the physicians to rapidly identify severe COVID-19 patients, hence facilitating the early initiation of effective treatment.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020193169.

Diabetes prevalence and mortality in COVID-19 patients: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) are at high risk of fatal outcomes. This meta-analysis quantifies the prevalence of mortality among (1) diabetic and (2) non-diabetic, and (3) the prevalence of DM, in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Published studies were retrieved from four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and medRxiv) and appraised critically utilizing the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's tool. Meta-analyses were performed using the random-effects model. The measures of heterogeneity were ascertained by I- squared (I 2 ) and Chi-squared (Chi 2 ) tests statistics. Predictors of heterogeneity were quantified using meta-regression models.

RESULTS

Of the reviewed 475 publications, 22 studies (chiefly case series (59.09 %)), sourcing data of 45,775 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, were deemed eligible. The weighted prevalence of mortality in hospitlized COVID-19 patients with DM (20.0 %, 95 % CI: 15.0-26.0; I 2 , 96.8 %) was 82 % (1.82-time) higher than that in non-DM patients (11.0 %, 95 % CI: 5.0-16.0; I 2 , 99.3 %). The prevalence of mortality among DM patients was highest in Europe (28.0 %; 95 % CI: 14.0-44.0) followed by the United States (20.0 %, 95 % CI: 11.0-32.0) and Asia (17.0 %, 95 % CI: 8.0-28.0). Sample size and severity of the COVID-19 were associated (p < 0.05) with variability in the prevalence of mortality. The weighted prevalence of DM among hospitalized COVID-19 patients was 20 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 15-25, I 2 , 99.3 %). Overall, the quality of the studies was fair.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalized COVID-19 patients were appreciably burdened with a high prevalence of DM. DM contributed to the increased risk of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients compared to non-DM patients, particularly among critically ill patients. Registration: PROSPERO (registration no. CRD42020196589).

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-021-00779-2.

Aging and Options to Halt Declining Immunity to Virus Infections

Immunosenescence is a process associated with aging that leads to dysregulation of cells of innate and adaptive immunity, which may become dysfunctional. Consequently, older adults show increased severity of viral and bacterial infections and impaired responses to vaccinations. A better understanding of the process of immunosenescence will aid the development of novel strategies to boost the immune system in older adults. In this review, we focus on major alterations of the immune system triggered by aging, and address the effect of chronic viral infections, effectiveness of vaccination of older adults and strategies to improve immune function in this vulnerable age group.

Update Breast Cancer 2021 Part 1 - Prevention and Early Stages

This review summarises not only the latest evidence on prevention, but also the current research on the treatment of early-stage breast cancer patients. Recent years have seen a growing body of evidence on the risk of high- and moderate-penetrance breast cancer susceptibility genes. A large international consortium has now been able to further refine the answer to the question of the significance of the so-called panel genes. Moreover, the data on treatment selection regarding endocrine efficacy and the decision for or against chemotherapy have also been advanced markedly. There is also new data on adjuvant CDK4/6 (cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6) inhibitors, which are standard in first-line treatment in patients with metastatic HER2-negative, hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer. For other therapies such as immune checkpoint inhibitors, which have successfully improved the rate of pathologic complete response (pCR) in neoadjuvant treatment settings for patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), there is a growing understanding of the quality of life and side effects. This is especially important in situations where patients could possibly be cured without such a regimen.

Mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19: a systematic review

Introduction: The use of mechanical ventilation associated with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure, the most common complication in critically ill COVID-19 patients, defines a high risk population that requires specific consideration of outcomes and treatment practices.Areas covered: This review evaluates existing information about mortality rates and effectiveness of antiviral, immune-modulating, and anticoagulation treatments in COVID-19 patients who received mechanical ventilation. The mortality rate and follow-up periods in patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged widely. Antivirals, including remdesivir and convalescent plasma, have shown no definitive mortality benefit in this population despite positive results in other COVID-19 patients. Dexamethasone was associated with an absolute reduction in 28-day mortality by 12.3% (95% CI, 6.3 to 17.6), after adjusting for age. Reduced mortality has been demonstrated with tocilizumab use alongside corticosteroids. Evidence is inconclusive for therapeutic anticoagulation, and further studies are needed to determine the comparative benefit of prophylactic anticoagulation.Expert opinion: Significant variation and high mortality rates in mechanically ventilated patients necessitate more standardized outcome measurements, increased consideration of risk factors to reduce intubation, and improved treatment practices. Anticoagulation and dexamethasone should be incorporated in the treatment of patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation, while more rigorous studies are required for other potential treatments.

Deep learning model to predict the need for mechanical ventilation using chest X-ray images in hospitalised patients with COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

There exists a wide gap in the availability of mechanical ventilator devices and their acute need in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. An initial triaging method that accurately identifies the need for mechanical ventilation in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 is needed. We aimed to investigate if a potentially deteriorating clinical course in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 can be detected using all X-ray images taken during hospitalisation.

METHODS

We exploited the well-established DenseNet121 deep learning architecture for this purpose on 663 X-ray images acquired from 528 hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Two Pulmonary and Critical Care experts blindly and independently evaluated the same X-ray images for the purpose of validation.

RESULTS

We found that our deep learning model predicted the need for mechanical ventilation with a high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity (90.06%, 86.34% and 84.38%, respectively). This prediction was done approximately 3 days ahead of the actual intubation event. Our model also outperformed two Pulmonary and Critical Care experts who evaluated the same X-ray images and provided an incremental accuracy of 7.24%-13.25%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our deep learning model accurately predicted the need for mechanical ventilation early during hospitalisation of patients with COVID-19. Until effective preventive or treatment measures become widely available for patients with COVID-19, prognostic stratification as provided by our model is likely to be highly valuable.

Factors affecting the survival of early COVID-19 patients in South Korea: An observational study based on the Korean National Health Insurance big data

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify the survival rate and explore factors affecting survival among early COVID-19 patients in South Korea.

METHODS

Data reported by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), up to 15 July, when COVID-19 was confirmed were used as research data in connection with the National Health Insurance Service's (NHIS) national health information database. The final analysis targets were 12,646 confirmed patients and 303 deaths. The survival rate of patients with COVID-19 was estimated through Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to search for factors affecting survival.

RESULTS

When looking at the survival rate by age group for men and women, the 28-day survival rate for men aged >80 years was 77% and 73% at 42 days, while 83% and 81% for women. Men had a worse survival rate than women. For chronic diseases, the highest risk of mortality was observed in malignant neoplasms of the respiratory and urogenital systems, followed by diseases of the urinary system and diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of COVID-19 deaths was highest the next day after initial diagnosis. The case fatality rate was high in males, older age, and chronic diseases.

Semi-supervised learning for an improved diagnosis of COVID-19 in CT images

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spread out all over the world. Although a real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test has been used as a primary diagnostic tool for COVID-19, the utility of CT based diagnostic tools have been suggested to improve the diagnostic accuracy and reliability. Herein we propose a semi-supervised deep neural network for an improved detection of COVID-19. The proposed method utilizes CT images in a supervised and unsupervised manner to improve the accuracy and robustness of COVID-19 diagnosis. Both labeled and unlabeled CT images are employed. Labeled CT images are used for supervised leaning. Unlabeled CT images are utilized for unsupervised learning in a way that the feature representations are invariant to perturbations in CT images. To systematically evaluate the proposed method, two COVID-19 CT datasets and three public CT datasets with no COVID-19 CT images are employed. In distinguishing COVID-19 from non-COVID-19 CT images, the proposed method achieves an overall accuracy of 99.83%, sensitivity of 0.9286, specificity of 0.9832, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.9192. The results are consistent between the COVID-19 challenge dataset and the public CT datasets. For discriminating between COVID-19 and common pneumonia CT images, the proposed method obtains 97.32% accuracy, 0.9971 sensitivity, 0.9598 specificity, and 0.9326 PPV. Moreover, the comparative experiments with respect to supervised learning and training strategies demonstrate that the proposed method is able to improve the diagnostic accuracy and robustness without exhaustive labeling. The proposed semi-supervised method, exploiting both supervised and unsupervised learning, facilitates an accurate and reliable diagnosis for COVID-19, leading to an improved patient care and management.

Evaluation of the Current Therapeutic Approaches for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and a Meta-analysis

Background: Limited data on the efficacy and safety of currently applied COVID-19 therapeutics and their impact on COVID-19 outcomes have raised additional concern. Objective and Methods: To estimate the efficacy and safety of COVID-19 therapeutics, we performed meta-analyses of the studies reporting clinical features and treatments of COVID-19 published from January 21 to September 6, 2020. Results: We included 136 studies that involved 102,345 COVID-19 patients. The most prevalent treatments were antibiotics (proportion: 0.59, 95% CI: [0.51, 0.67]) and antivirals (proportion: 0.52, 95% CI: [0.44, 0.60]). The combination of lopinavir/ritonavir and Arbidol was the most effective in treating COVID-19 (standardized mean difference (SMD) = 0.68, 95% CI: [0.15, 1.21]). The use of corticosteroids was associated with a small clinical improvement (SMD = -0.40, 95% CI: [-0.85, -0.23]), but with a higher risk of disease progression and death (mortality: RR = 9.26, 95% CI: [4.81, 17.80]; hospitalization length: RR = 1.54, 95% CI: [1.39, 1.72]; severe adverse events: RR = 2.65, 95% CI: [2.09, 3.37]). The use of hydroxychloroquine was associated with a higher risk of death (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: [1.18, 2.38]). The combination of lopinavir/ritonavir, ribavirin, and interferon-β (RR = 0.34, 95% CI: [0.22, 0.54]); hydroxychloroquine (RR = 0.58, 95% CI: [0.39, 0.58]); and lopinavir/ritonavir (RR = 0.72, 95% CI: [0.56, 0.91]) was associated with reduced hospitalization length. Hydrocortisone (RR = 0.05, 95% CI: [0.03, 0.10]) and remdesivir (RR = 0.74, 95% CI: [0.62, 0.90]) were associated with lower incidence of severe adverse events. Dexamethasone was not significant in reducing disease progression (RR = 0.45, 95% CI: [0.16, 1.25]) and mortality (RR = 0.90, 95% CI: [0.70, 1.16]). The estimated combination of corticosteroids with antivirals was associated with a better clinical improvement than antivirals alone (SMD = -1.09, 95% CI: [-1.64, -0.53]). Conclusion: Antivirals are safe and effective in COVID-19 treatment. Remdesivir cannot significantly reduce COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization length, while it is associated with a lower incidence of severe adverse events. Corticosteroids could increase COVID-19 severity, but it could be beneficial when combined with antivirals. Our data are potentially valuable for the clinical treatment and management of COVID-19 patients.

Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Mortality in Very Old Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in Spain

Background

Advanced age is a well-known risk factor for poor prognosis in COVID-19. However, few studies have specifically focused on very old inpatients with COVID-19. This study aims to describe the clinical characteristics of very old inpatients with COVID-19 and identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality at admission.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide, multicenter, retrospective, observational study in patients ≥ 80 years hospitalized with COVID-19 in 150 Spanish hospitals (SEMI-COVID-19) Registry (March 1–May 29, 2020). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. A uni- and multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess predictors of mortality at admission.

Results

A total of 2772 consecutive patients (49.4% men, median age 86.3 years) were analyzed. Rates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dementia, and Barthel Index < 60 were 30.8%, 25.6%, 30.5%, and 21.0%, respectively. The overall case-fatality rate was 46.9% (n: 1301) and increased with age (80–84 years: 41.6%; 85–90 years: 47.3%; 90–94 years: 52.7%; ≥95 years: 54.2%). After analysis, male sex and moderate-to-severe dependence were independently associated with in-hospital mortality; comorbidities were not predictive. At admission, independent risk factors for death were: oxygen saturation < 90%; temperature ≥ 37.8°C; quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score ≥ 2; and unilateral–bilateral infiltrates on chest x-rays. Some analytical findings were independent risk factors for death, including estimated glomerular filtration rate < 45 mL/min/1.73 m²; lactate dehydrogenase ≥ 500 U/L; C-reactive protein ≥ 80 mg/L; neutrophils ≥ 7.5 × 10³/μL; lymphocytes < 0.8 × 10³/μL; and monocytes < 0.5 × 10³/μL.

Conclusions

This first large, multicenter cohort of very old inpatients with COVID-19 shows that age, male sex, and poor preadmission functional status—not comorbidities—are independently associated with in-hospital mortality. Severe COVID-19 at admission is related to poor prognosis.

Understanding Demographic Risk Factors for Adverse Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients: Explanation of a Deep Learning Model

This study was to understand the impacts of three key demographic variables, age, gender, and race, on the adverse outcome of all-cause hospitalization or all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using a deep neural network (DNN) analysis. We created a cohort of Veterans who were tested positive for COVID-19, extracted data on age, gender, and race, and clinical characteristics from their electronic health records, and trained a DNN model for predicting the adverse outcome. Then, we analyzed the association of the demographic variables with the risks of the adverse outcome using the impact scores and interaction scores for explaining DNN models. The results showed that, on average, older age and African American race were associated with higher risks while female gender was associated with lower risks. However, individual-level impact scores of age showed that age was a more impactful risk factor in younger patients and in older patients with fewer comorbidities. The individual-level impact scores of gender and race variables had a wide span covering both positive and negative values. The interaction scores between the demographic variables showed that the interaction effects were minimal compared to the impact scores associated with them. In conclusion, the DNN model is able to capture the non-linear relationship between the risk factors and the adverse outcome, and the impact scores and interaction scores can help explain the complicated non-linear effects between the demographic variables and the risk of the outcome.