Changing Trends in Liver Cirrhosis Etiology and Severity in Korea: the Increasing Impact of Alcohol

Global, Regional, and National Trends in Liver Disease-Related Mortality Across 112 Countries From 1990 to 2021, With Projections to 2050: Comprehensive Analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

BACKGROUND

Liver disease causes over two million deaths annually worldwide, comprising approximately 4% of all global fatalities. We aimed to analyze liver disease-related mortality trends from 1990 to 2021 using the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database and forecast global liver disease-related mortality rates up to 2050.

METHODS

This study examined age-standardized liver disease-related death rates from 1990 to 2021, employing data from the WHO Mortality Database across 112 countries across five continents. The rates over time were calculated using a locally weighted scatter plot smoother curve, with weights assigned based on the population of each country. Furthermore, this study projected liver disease-related mortality rates up to 2050 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Additionally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to discern influencing factors such as population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes.

RESULTS

The estimated global age-standardized liver disease-related mortality rates surged significantly from 1990 to 2021 across 112 countries, rising from 103.4 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.16, 118.74) in 1990 to 173.0 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 155.15, 190.95) in 2021. This upward trend was particularly pronounced in low- and middle-income countries, in Africa, and in populations aged 65 years and older. Moreover, age-standardized liver disease-related mortality rates were correlated with a lower Human Development Index (P < 0.001) and sociodemographic index (P = 0.001). According to the BAPC model, the projected trend indicated a sustained and substantial decline in liver disease-related mortality rates, with an estimated decrease from 185.08 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 179.79, 190.63) in 2021 to 156.29 (112.32, 214.77) in 2050. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized liver disease-related deaths surged primarily due to epidemiological changes, whereas from 1990 to 2050, the impact of population aging and growth became the primary contributing factors to the overall increase.

CONCLUSION

Global age-standardized liver disease-related mortality has increased significantly and continues to emerge as a crucial global public health issue. Further investigation into liver disease-related mortality rates in Africa is needed, and updating policies is necessary to effectively manage the global burden of liver disease.

Trends in alcohol use and alcoholic liver disease in South Korea: a nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of national-level research on alcohol consumption and the epidemiology of alcoholic liver disease (ALD) in South Korea. This study aims to address the critical public health issue of ALD by focusing on its trends, incidence, and outcomes, using nationwide claims data.

METHODS

Utilizing National Health Insurance Service data from 2011 to 2017, we calculated the population's overall drinking amount and the incidence of ALD based on ICD-10 diagnosis codes.

RESULTS

From 2011 to 2017 in South Korea, social drinking increased from 15.7% to 16.5%, notably rising among women. High-risk drinking remained around 16.4%, decreasing in men aged 20-39 but not decreased in men aged 40-59 and steadily increased in women aged 20-59. The prevalence of ALD in high-risk drinkers (0.97%) was significantly higher than in social drinkers (0.16%). A 3-year follow-up revealed ALD incidence of 1.90% for high-risk drinkers and 0.31% for social drinkers. Women high-risk drinkers had a higher ALD risk ratio (6.08) than men (4.18). The economic burden of ALD was substantial, leading to higher healthcare costs and increased hospitalization. Progression rates to liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in ALD patients were 23.3% and 2.8%, respectively, with no gender difference in cirrhosis progression.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed a concerning rise in alcohol consumption among South Korean women and emphasizes the heightened health risks and economic burdens associated with high-risk drinking, especially concerning ALD and its complications.

Approach to Liver Transplantation: Is There a Difference between East and West?

Liver transplantation (LT) remains the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease as well as acute liver failure. With the exponential increase in organ demand due to the increasing incidence and prevalence of liver diseases, the need to overcome the supply and demand mismatch has arisen. In this review, we discuss the current universal status of LT, emphasizing various LT practices worldwide.

Model for end-stage liver disease-3.0 vs. model for end-stage liver disease-sodium: mortality prediction in Korea

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) serves as an indicator for short-term mortality among patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis (LC) and is used to prioritize patients for liver transplantation. In 2021, the updated version of MELD, MELD-3.0, was introduced to improve the accuracy of the mortality prediction of MELD. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the efficacy of MELD 3.0 and MELD-Na in predicting mortality among Korean patients with LC.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted using the medical records of patients diagnosed with LC who were admitted to Konkuk University Hospital From 2011 to 2021. The study calculated the predictive values of MELD-Na and MELD-3.0 for 3- and 6-months mortality using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and compared the results using the DeLong test.

RESULTS

Of the 3,034 patients enrolled in the study, 339 (11.2%) died within 3 months and 421 (14.4%) died within 6 months. The AUROCs values for predicting 3 months mortality were 0.846 for MELD-Na and 0.851 for MELD-3.0. The corresponding AUROC values for predicting 6 months mortality were 0.843 for MELD-Na and 0.848 for MELD-3.0. MELD-3.0 exhibited better discrimination ability than MELD-Na for both 3 (p = 0.03) and 6 months mortality (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our study found a significant difference between the performance of MELD-3.0 and MELD-Na in Korean patients with LC.

Prevalence and outcomes of chronic comorbid conditions in patients with sepsis in Korea: a nationwide cohort study from 2011 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Chronic comorbid conditions are common in patients with sepsis and may affect the outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence and outcomes of common comorbidities in patients with sepsis.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study. Using data from the National Health Insurance Service of Korea. Adult patients (age ≥ 18 years) who were hospitalized in tertiary or general hospitals with a diagnosis of sepsis between 2011 and 2016 were analyzed. After screening of all International Classification of Diseases 10th revision codes for comorbidities, we identified hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), liver cirrhosis (LC), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and malignancy as prevalent comorbidities.

RESULTS

Overall, 373,539 patients diagnosed with sepsis were hospitalized in Korea between 2011 and 2016. Among them, 46.7% had hypertension, 23.6% had DM, 7.4% had LC, 13.7% had CKD, and 30.7% had malignancy. In-hospital mortality rates for patients with hypertension, DM, LC, CKD, and malignancy were 25.5%, 25.2%, 34.5%, 28.0%, and 33.3%, respectively, showing a decreasing trend over time (P < 0.001). After adjusting for baseline characteristics, male sex, older age, use of mechanical ventilation, and continuous renal replacement therapy, LC, CKD, and malignancy were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is the most prevalent comorbidity in patients with sepsis, and it is associated with an increased survival rate. Additionally, liver cirrhosis, chronic kidney disease, and malignancy result in higher mortality rates than hypertension and DM, and are significant risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with sepsis.

Addition of Kidney Dysfunction Type to MELD-Na for the Prediction of Survival in Cirrhotic Patients Awaiting Liver Transplantation in Comparison with MELD 3.0 with Albumin

It is well known that renal dysfunction has a devastating effect on the prognosis of liver cirrhosis. In this study, the aim was to assess whether the incorporation of the kidney dysfunction type into the MELD-Na score enhances its predictive capacity for outcomes in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT), compared to utilizing the MELD 3.0 score with albumin. In total, 2080 patients awaiting the LT were enrolled at two tertiary care institutions in Korea. Discrimination abilities were analyzed by using Harrell's c-index and iAUC values between MELD-Na-kidney dysfunction type (MELD-Na-KT) and MELD 3.0 with albumin. Clinical endpoints encompassed 3-month survival, 3-month transplant-free survival (TFS), overall survival (OS), and total TFS. Out of the total of 2080 individuals, 669 (32.16%) were male. Regarding the types of renal function impairment, 1614 (77.6%) were in the normal group, 112 (5.38%) in the AKD group, 320 (15.35%) in the CKD group, and 34 (1.63%) were in the AKD on CKD group. MELD 3.0 with albumin showed better discrimination (c-index = 0.714) compared to MELD-Na-KT (c-index = 0.708) in predicting 3-month survival. Similar results were observed for OS, 3-month TFS, and total TFS as well. When divided by sex, MELD 3.0 with albumin showed the comparable prediction of 3-month survival to MELD-Na-KT (c-index 0.675 vs. 0.671, p-value 0.221) in males. However, in the female group, MELD 3.0 with albumin demonstrated better results compared to MELD-Na-KT (c-index 0.733 vs. 0.723, p-value 0.001). The integration of kidney dysfunction types into the MELD-Na did not yield superior prognostic results compared to the MELD 3.0 score with albumin. Rather, in the female group, the MELD 3.0 score with albumin was better able to predict survival. These findings suggest that laboratory values pertaining to liver dysfunction or creatinine levels may be more significant than the type of kidney dysfunction when predicting the short-term prognosis of LT candidates.

MELD-GRAIL-Na Is a Better Predictor of Mortality Than MELD in Korean Patients with Cirrhosis

Background and Objectives: The Child–Pugh (CP) score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are classical systems for predicting mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). The MELD-GFR assessment in liver disease–sodium (MELD-GRAIL-Na) was designed to better reflect renal function and, therefore, provide better mortality predictions. This study aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of MELD-GRAIL-Na compared to CP and MELD in predicting short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients. Materials and Methods: Medical records of patients with LC admitted to the Konkuk University Hospital from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive values of the CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na for 1-month and 3-month mortality were calculated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and were compared using DeLong’s test. Results: In total, 1249 patients were enrolled; 102 died within 1 month, and 146 within 3 months. AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.831, 0.847, and 0.857 for 1-month mortality and 0.837, 0.827, and 0.835 for 3-month mortality, respectively, indicating no statistical significance. For patients with CP classes B and C, AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.782, 0.809, and 0.825 for 1-month mortality and 0.775, 0.769, and 0.786 for 3-month mortality, respectively. There was a significant difference between CP and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month mortality (p = 0.0428) and between MELD and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month (p = 0.0493) and 3-month mortality (p = 0.0225). Conclusions: Compared to CP and MELD, MELD-GRAIL-Na was found to be a better and more useful system for evaluating short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis, especially those with advanced cirrhosis (CP class B and C).

Factors predicting mortality in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis visiting the emergency department

Liver cirrhosis (LC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and is becoming a regional and healthcare burden. South Korea is one of the 10 countries with the highest age standardized prevalence of decompensated LC. Moreover, the proportion of patients with alcoholic LC is increasing and there has been no decrease in the incidence of decompensated alcoholic LC. Patients with decompensated LC frequently visit the emergency department (ED). Several studies focused on patients with LC who visited the ED, but the studies about alcoholic LC were limited. This study aimed to identify predicting factors for mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED. This was a retrospective study of alcoholic LC patients who visited an ED between November 2017 and June 2021. The baseline characteristics, complications of LC, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and laboratory values including lactate were assessed. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In total, 433 patients with alcoholic LC were included for analysis and the in hospital mortality rate was 15.9% (n = 69). Univariate regression analyses identified that MELD score, lactate, platelet, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, creatinine, albumin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) predicted in-hospital mortality. Multivariate regression analysis showed that MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. MELD score, lactate, albumin, and CRP predicted the mortality in alcoholic LC patients visiting the ED.

Alcoholic liver disease in relation to cancer incidence and mortality: Findings from a large, matched cohort study in South Korea

AIM

To estimate the risk of cancer incidence and mortality among patients with alcoholic liver disease in South Korea.

METHODS

A matched cohort study was conducted, including 1,042,185 men (alcoholic liver disease cases: 208,437; controls: 833,748) and 100,400 women (alcoholic liver disease cases: 20,080; controls: 80,320), matched for sex, age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and body mass index at a 1:4 ratio. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality in the alcoholic liver disease group was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models.

RESULTS

Both men and women with alcoholic liver disease had an elevated risk of all-cancer and liver cancer incidence and mortality in comparison with the control group. In men, alcoholic liver disease was associated with a significantly higher risk of development of 10 cancer types, including lip, oral cavity, and pharynx; esophagus; liver; gallbladder and biliary tract; pancreas; larynx; lung; kidney; thyroid gland; and leukemia. Subgroup analysis by hepatitis B and C infection showed increased hazard ratios of all cancer incidences and mortality in the alcoholic liver disease group, regardless of hepatitis B or C infection status. In both sexes, a higher number and more years of hospital or clinic visits for alcoholic liver disease were associated with an increased risk of incidence and mortality from all cancers and liver cancer. A more profound dose-response relationship between alcoholic liver disease and alcohol consumption was observed in women than in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings emphasize the need for a clinical surveillance program and the early detection of cancer in patients with alcoholic liver disease.

Epidemiology of liver cirrhosis and associated complications: Current knowledge and future directions

Cirrhosis causes a heavy global burden. In this review, we summarized up-to-date epidemiological features of cirrhosis and its complications. Recent epidemiological studies reported an increase in the prevalence of cirrhosis in 2017 compared to in 1990 in both men and women, with 5.2 million cases of cirrhosis and chronic liver disease occurring in 2017. Cirrhosis caused 1.48 million deaths in 2019, an increase of 8.1% compared to 2017. Disability-adjusted life-years due to cirrhosis ranked 16th among all diseases and 7th in people aged 50-74 years in 2019. The global burden of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis is decreasing, while the burden of cirrhosis due to alcohol and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing rapidly. We described the current epidemiology of the major complications of cirrhosis, including ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, renal disorders, and infections. We also summarized the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis. In the future, NAFLD-related cirrhosis will likely become more common due to the prevalence of metabolic diseases such as obesity and diabetes, and the prevalence of alcohol-induced cirrhosis is increasing. This altered epidemiology should be clinically noted, and relevant interventions should be undertaken.