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Han W, Han K, Hwang SG, Ahn SH, Kim MN. Association of physical activity, including amount and maintenance, with the risk of HCC among patients with type 2 diabetes. JHEP Rep 2024; 6:101166. [PMID: 39314549 PMCID: PMC11418104 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2024.101166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2023] [Revised: 07/01/2024] [Accepted: 07/01/2024] [Indexed: 09/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Background & Aims We investigated the association of physical activity (PA) levels and changes with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods Patients with type 2 diabetes who had undergone health examinations in 2009 and 2011 were enrolled. In total, 1,439,152 patients were included in the analysis. The level of PA was classified as inactive (<500 metabolic equivalent task [MET]-min/week), moderately active (500-1,500 MET-min/week), and active (≥1,500 MET-min/week). Change in PA was categorized as persistently inactive PA, newly active PA, active PA quitter, and persistently active PA according to change of PA between 2009 and 2011. Results During a median of 5.2 years of follow-up, 22,686 patients developed HCC. Compared to the inactive group, the risk of HCC was significantly lower in the moderately active (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99), and active (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99) groups. The patients in the persistently active PA group had a significantly lower risk of HCC than those in the persistently inactive PA group (aHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.84-0.98). Conclusions Physical activity exhibited a dose-responsive preventive effect against HCC in patients with diabetes. Impact and implications Our study investigated the impact of physical activity (PA) levels and changes on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes. PA was associated with a dose-responsive preventive effect against HCC. Patients in the persistently active PA group had a significantly lower risk of HCC than those in the persistently inactive PA group, while newly active patients and PA quitters had similar risks to the persistently inactive group. Our study highlighted the importance of maintaining regular PA as a preventive strategy against HCC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wonkyung Han
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University School of Medicine, Seongnam, Republic of Korea
| | - Kyungdo Han
- Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seong Gyu Hwang
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University School of Medicine, Seongnam, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Mi Na Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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Han JW, Sohn W, Choi GH, Jang JW, Seo GH, Kim BH, Choi JY. Evolving trends in treatment patterns for hepatocellular carcinoma in Korea from 2008 to 2022: a nationwide population-based study. JOURNAL OF LIVER CANCER 2024; 24:274-285. [PMID: 39187270 PMCID: PMC11449573 DOI: 10.17998/jlc.2024.08.13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2024] [Revised: 08/09/2024] [Accepted: 08/13/2024] [Indexed: 08/28/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUNDS/AIMS The treatment landscape for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has significantly evolved over the past decade. We aimed to analyze trends in treatment patterns for HCC using a nationwide claims database from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. METHODS This retrospective population-based cohort study analyzed 171,002 newly diagnosed HCC patients between 2008 and 2022. Etiologies and treatment modalities were categorized based on the ICD-10 codes and insurance data. RESULTS The annual incidence decreased from 11,814 in 2008 to 10,443 in 2022. However, patients aged ≥70 increased noticeably, with those aged ≥80 rising from 3.8% in 2008 to 13.1% in 2022. From 2008 to 2022, the predominant cause of hepatitis B virus decreased from 68.9% to 59.7%, whereas nonalcoholic fatty liver disease increased from 8.9% to 15.8%. The initial treatment trends shifted: surgical resection and systemic therapy increased from 12.2% to 21.3% and from 0.2% to 9.6%, whereas transarterial therapy decreased from 49.9% to 36.6%. Best supportive care decreased from 31.7% to 21.3%. In the subgroup analysis, laparoscopic resection rate increased from 10.6% to 60.6% among the surgical resections. Sorafenib initially accounted for 100%, lenvatinib peaked at 36.5% in 2021, and atezolizumab-bevacizumab became the most widely used (63.1%) by 2022 among the systemic therapies. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates the temporal changes in the treatment patterns of Korean HCC patients. Surgical resection, particularly laparoscopic liver resection, and systemic therapy has increased significantly. These changes may have been influenced by reimbursement policies and advances in clinical research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ji Won Han
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- The Catholic University Liver Research Center, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Won Sohn
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Gwang Hyeon Choi
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam, Korea
| | - Jeong Won Jang
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- The Catholic University Liver Research Center, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
| | - Gi Hyeon Seo
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, Seoul, Korea
| | - Bo Hyun Kim
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- Center for Liver and Pancreatobiliary Cancer, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
| | - Jong Young Choi
- The Korean Liver Cancer Association, Seoul, Korea
- The Catholic University Liver Research Center, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea
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Hong J, Eun JW, Baek GO, Cheong JY, Park S, Kim SS, Cho HJ, Lim SB. Multiomics profiling of buffy coat and plasma unveils etiology-specific signatures in hepatocellular carcinoma. Clin Mol Hepatol 2024; 30:360-374. [PMID: 38486508 PMCID: PMC11261225 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2024.0042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. Despite identification of several biomarkers for HCC diagnosis, challenges such as low sensitivity and intratumoral heterogeneity have impeded early detection, highlighting the need for etiology-specific blood biomarkers. METHODS We generated whole-transcriptome sequencing (WTS) and targeted proteome data from buffy coat and plasma samples from HCC patients. By integrating etiological information on viral infection, we investigated the etiology-specific gene expression landscape at the blood level. Validation of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) was performed using publicly available RNA-seq datasets and qRT‒PCR with AUC analyses. RESULTS Differential expression analyses with multiomics data revealed distinct gene expression profiles between HBV-associated HCC and nonviral HCC, indicating the presence of etiology-specific blood biomarkers. The identified DEGs were validated across multiple independent datasets, underscoring their utility as biomarkers. Additionally, single-cell RNA-seq analysis of HCC confirmed differences in DEG expression across distinct immune cell types. CONCLUSION Our buffy coat WTS data and plasma proteome data may serve as reliable sources for identifying etiology-specific blood biomarkers of HCC and might contribute to discovery of therapeutic targets for HCC across different etiologies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiwon Hong
- Department of Biochemistry & Molecular Biology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Graduate School of Ajou University, Suwon, Korea
| | - Jung Woo Eun
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Geum Ok Baek
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Jae Youn Cheong
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Seryoung Park
- Department of Biochemistry & Molecular Biology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Soon Sun Kim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Hyo Jung Cho
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
| | - Su Bin Lim
- Department of Biochemistry & Molecular Biology, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Korea
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Graduate School of Ajou University, Suwon, Korea
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Giannitrapani L, Amodeo S, Mirarchi L, Terranova A, Seidita A, Mozzini C, Cabibi D, Brancatelli G, Licata A, Soresi M. Changes in the ultrasound presentation of hepatocellular carcinoma: a center's three decades of experience. J Ultrasound 2024; 27:383-391. [PMID: 38583119 PMCID: PMC11178752 DOI: 10.1007/s40477-024-00888-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 02/25/2024] [Indexed: 04/08/2024] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE Ultrasound (US) surveillance is a cornerstone for early diagnosis of HCC, anyway US presentation has undergone significant changes. With the aim of evaluating the effects of US surveillance program in the real-world clinical practice, we wanted to evaluate US presentation of HCCs over the last 30 years and the differences of HCCs presentation according to etiology. METHODS 174 patients diagnosed between 1993 and 98 (G1), 96 between 2003 and 08 (G2), 102 between 2013 and 18 (G3), were compared. US patterns were: single, multiple or diffuse nodules. The echo-patterns: iso-, hypo-, hyper-echoic, or mixed. In G1, the HCC diagnosis was mainly histologic; in G2 by EASL 2001 and AASLD 2005, in G3 AASLD 2011, EASL 2012, and AISF 2013 guidelines. RESULTS HCV was the most frequent etiology, dropping between G1 (81%) and G3 (66%) (P < 0.01), metabolic increased between G1 (5%) and G3 (14%) (P < 0.01). Single HCC was more prevalent in G3 vs G1 (65.6% vs 40%) (P < 0.0001), multiple nodules in G1 (50%) vs G3 (33.3%) (P < 0.02) and diffuse in G1 (16%) vs G2 (2%) and vs G3 (1%) (P < 0.001). The most frequent echo-pattern was hypo-echoic G1 (50%) vs G2 (79%) and G1 vs G3 (65%) (P < 0.01). Iso-echoic pattern was the least frequent (7-12%). Mixed pattern decreased from G1 (28%) to G3 (12%) (P < 0.002). In G3 there were more multiple or diffuse HCCs in metabolic (P < 0.03). CONCLUSION US presentation became less severe due to surveillance programs. HCV remains the most frequent cause, an increase in metabolic etiology has been shown throughout the decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lydia Giannitrapani
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
- Institute for Biomedical Research and Innovation (IRIB), National Research Council, Palermo, Italy
| | - Simona Amodeo
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Luigi Mirarchi
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Antonino Terranova
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Aurelio Seidita
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Chiara Mozzini
- Department of Medicine, ASST Mantova, C. Poma Hospital, Mantua, Italy
| | - Daniela Cabibi
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Brancatelli
- Department of Biomedicine, Neuroscience and Advanced Diagnostic (Bi.N.D.) Section of Radiological Sciences, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Anna Licata
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy
| | - Maurizio Soresi
- Department of Health Promotion Sciences, Maternal and Infant Care, Internal Medicine and Medical Specialties (PROMISE), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
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Chun HS, Papatheodoridis GV, Lee M, Lee HA, Kim YH, Kim SH, Oh YS, Park SJ, Kim J, Lee HA, Kim HY, Kim TH, Yoon EL, Jun DW, Ahn SH, Sypsa V, Yurdaydin C, Lampertico P, Calleja JL, Janssen HLA, Dalekos GN, Goulis J, Berg T, Buti M, Kim SU, Kim YJ. PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B. J Hepatol 2024; 80:20-30. [PMID: 37734683 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2023.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2023] [Revised: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 09/05/2023] [Indexed: 09/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection. METHODS This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n = 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n = 1,218) were performed. RESULTS Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ho Soo Chun
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - George V Papatheodoridis
- Department of Gastroenterology, Medical School of National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, General Hospital of Athens "Laiko", Athens, Greece
| | - Minjong Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University Medical Center, Seoul, Korea.
| | - Hye Ah Lee
- Clinical Trial Center, Ewha Womans University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yeong Hwa Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Seo Hyun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yun-Seo Oh
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Su Jin Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jihye Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Han Ah Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Hwi Young Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Tae Hun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Eileen L Yoon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Dae Won Jun
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Vana Sypsa
- Department of Gastroenterology, Medical School of National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, General Hospital of Athens "Laiko", Athens, Greece
| | - Cihan Yurdaydin
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Koc University Medical School, Istanbul, Turkey
| | - Pietro Lampertico
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, CRC "A. M. and A. Migliavacca" Center for Liver Disease, Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | | | - Harry LA Janssen
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - George N Dalekos
- Department of Medicine and Research Laboratory of Internal Medicine, National Expertise Center of Greece in Autoimmune Liver Diseases, General University Hospital of Larissa, Larissa, Greece
| | - John Goulis
- 4th Department of Internal Medicine, Αristotle University of Thessaloniki Medical School, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Thomas Berg
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Medicine II, Leipzig University Medical Center, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Maria Buti
- Hospital General Universitario Vall Hebron and Ciberehd, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
| | - Yoon Jun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
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Kim BK, Ahn SH. Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy. J Formos Med Assoc 2023; 122:1238-1246. [PMID: 37330305 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2023.05.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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Jang S, Jin YJ, Lee JW, Kwon D, Yu JH. Risk factors associated with late hepatocellular carcinoma detection in patients undergoing regular surveillance. Medicine (Baltimore) 2023; 102:e34637. [PMID: 37565915 PMCID: PMC10419803 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000034637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2023] [Indexed: 08/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a very poor prognosis with a 5-year survival rate of < 20%; hence, early diagnosis is crucial. Despite regular checkups for high-risk groups of HCC, there are a few cases in which it is discovered as a late-stage HCC. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the characteristics of patients with delayed HCC detection during regular surveillance. Between January 2010 and December 2020, we analyzed patients with newly diagnosed HCCs who underwent HCC surveillance by ultrasound or computed tomography scan at least twice and were followed up for more than 1 year for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and chronic liver disease. The mean age of 223 HCC patients was 70 years, of which 152 were male, accounting for 68.1%. Among them, 196 patients (87%) were diagnosed with Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage 0 or A, while 27 (13%) were diagnosed with Barcelona clinic liver cancer stages B and C. When classified according to the TNM criteria, 154 patients (69%) were in stage I, and 69 (31%) were in stage II or higher. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify the risk factors for patients diagnosed with late-stage HCC. The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score was identified as a highly significant factor (P = .002, HR 1.547, 95% CI 1.177-2.032), whereas the presence of cirrhosis, body mass index, and sex had no significant effect. We found that in patients with chronic liver disease who were screened regularly, those with higher CTP scores were more likely to be diagnosed with HCC in the late-stages. Therefore, although the presence of cirrhosis is also important for HCC surveillance, careful attention is needed in patients with high CTP scores.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sangmi Jang
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea
| | - Young-Joo Jin
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea
| | - Jin-Woo Lee
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea
| | - Dam Kwon
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea
| | - Jung Hwan Yu
- Digestive Disease Center, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, South Korea
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Wang H, Cao J, Fan H, Huang J, Zhang H, Ling W. Compared with CT/MRI LI-RADS, whether CEUS LI-RADS is worth popularizing in diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma?-a direct head-to-head meta-analysis. Quant Imaging Med Surg 2023; 13:4919-4932. [PMID: 37581040 PMCID: PMC10423374 DOI: 10.21037/qims-22-1383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 08/16/2023]
Abstract
Background Until now, there has been no systematic review or meta-analysis of direct head-to-head studies that compare two liver imaging reporting and data system (LI-RADS) algorithms, contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) LI-RADS and contrast-enhanced computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging (CT/MRI) LI-RADS, for the diagnostic efficacy of hepatocellular carcinoma. The purpose of this study was to identify and head-to-head compare the diagnostic performance of both LI-RADS algorithms for hepatocellular carcinoma. Methods We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases from the inception of each database to April 26, 2022, to find the comparative study of both LI-RADS algorithms for hepatocellular carcinoma at risk of patients who underwent both LI-RADS algorithms. Eligibility criteria included only studies published in English, full reports published, both retrospective and prospective studies. Liver histology or imaging follow-up results served as the reference standard. We analyzed the sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, and summary receiver operating characteristic curve to determine summary estimates. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies was utilized to assess the methodological quality. Results In 5 included studies (831 patients, 877 lesions), the pooled sensitivity and pooled specificity of CEUS LR-5 were 0.79, 0.81, and 0.78, 0.79 in CT/MRI LR-5, respectively. The pooled sensitivity and pooled specificity of CEUS LR-4/5 were 0.86, 0.70, and 0.93, 0.59 in CT/MRI LR-4/5, respectively. There was no obvious difference between the two LI-RADS algorithms for hepatocellular carcinoma, and there was no significant statistical difference between two LR-M algorithms for non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancies. Conclusions The results of our analysis demonstrated that CEUS LI-RADS has satisfactory diagnostic performance similar to that of CT/MRI LI-RADS, which provides a theoretical basis for the popularization of CEUS LI-RADS for diagnosing HCC. This work was supported by Sichuan Science and Technology Program (No. 2020YFS0211). We registered this study on the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO, CRD42022328107) before the search step.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong Wang
- Department of Ultrasound, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jiazhi Cao
- Department of Ultrasound, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Hongxia Fan
- Department of Ultrasound, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Jianbo Huang
- Department of Ultrasound, Laboratory of Ultrasound Medicine, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Huan Zhang
- Department of Ultrasound, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Wenwu Ling
- Department of Ultrasound, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
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Lee HW, Kim H, Park T, Park SY, Chon YE, Seo YS, Lee JS, Park JY, Kim DY, Ahn SH, Kim BK, Kim SU. A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Liver Int 2023; 43:1813-1821. [PMID: 37452503 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). METHODS Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses. RESULTS The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hye Won Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Hwiyoung Kim
- Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Center for Clinical Imaging Data Science (CCIDS), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Artificial Intelligence, Yonsei University, College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Taeyun Park
- Department of Artificial Intelligence, Yonsei University, College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Soo Young Park
- Department of Internal medicine, Kyungpook National University School of Medicine, Daegu, Republic of Korea
| | - Young Eun Chon
- Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Bundang, Republic of Korea
| | - Yeon Seok Seo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae Seung Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jun Yong Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Do Young Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
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10
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Zhang S, Wang C, Liu B, Lu QB, Shang J, Zhou Y, Jia J, Xu X, Rao H, Han B, Zhao T, Chen L, Xie M, Cui J, Du J, zeng J, huang N, Liu Y, Zhang L, Zhuang H, Cui F. Cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral treatment for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation. THE LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. WESTERN PACIFIC 2023; 35:100738. [PMID: 37424693 PMCID: PMC10326688 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100738] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2022] [Revised: 02/17/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/21/2023]
Abstract
Background China, which has the largest chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) burden, may expand antiviral therapy to attain the World Health Organization (WHO)-2030 goal of 65% reduction in mortality. We evaluated health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of chronic HBV infection treatments based on alanine transaminase (ALT) antiviral treatment initiation thresholds and coverage in China to identify an optimal strategy. Methods A decision-tree Markov state-transition model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of expanded antiviral treatment for chronic HBV infection by simulating 136 scenarios by ALT treatment initiation thresholds (40 U/L, 35 U/L for males and 25 U/L for females, 30 U/L for males and 19 U/L for females, and treating HBsAg+ individuals regardless of ALT values), population age groups (18-80, 30-80, and 40-80 years), implementation durations (2023, 2028, and 2033) under and treatment coverages (20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored model uncertainty. Findings Besides the status quo, we finally simulated 135 treatment-expanding scenarios based on the cross combination of different thresholds of ALT, treatment coverages, population's age groups and implementation time. For the status quo, a cumulative incidence of 16,038-42,691 HBV-related complications and 3116-18,428 related deaths will happened between 2030 and 2050. When the treatment threshold is expanded to 'ALT > 35 in males & ALT > 25 in females' immediately without expanding treatment coverage, it will save 2554 HBV-related complications and 348 related deaths compared to the status quo among the whole cohort by 2030, and US$ 156 million more will be costed for gaining 2962 more QALYs. If we just expand the ALT threshold to ALT > 30 in males & ALT > 19 in females, 3247 HBV-related complications and 470 related deaths will be prevented by 2030 under the current treatment coverage of 20%, which will cost US$ 242 million, US$ 583 million or US$ 606 million more by the year of 2030, 2040 or 2050, respectively. Treatment expanded to HBsAg+ will save the largest number of HBV-related complications and death. This expanding strategy also results in large complications or death reduction when it is limited to patients older than 30 years or 40 years. Under this strategy, four scenarios (Treating HBsAg+ with coverage of 60% or 80% for patients older than 18 years or 30 years) showed the effectiveness in reaching the target before the year 2030. Among all the strategies, treatment expanded to HBsAg+ would cost the most while providing the highest total QALYs compared to other strategies with similar implementation scenarios. ALT thresholds of 30 U/L and 19 U/L for males and females, respectively, with 80% coverage for 18-80 years, can attain the goal by 2043. Interpretation Treating HBsAg+ individuals with 80% coverage for 18-80 years is optimal; earlier implementation of expanded antiviral treatment with a modified ALT threshold could decrease HBV-related complications and deaths to support the global target of 65% reduction in viral hepatitis B deaths. Funding This study was funded by Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research (BMU2022XY030); Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group (BMU2022XY030); The Chinese Foundations for Hepatitis Control and Prevention (2021ZC032); National Science and Technology Project on Development Assistance for Technology, Developing China-ASEAN Public Health Research and Development Collaborating Center (KY202101004); in part by National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC2505100).
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Affiliation(s)
- Sihui Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Chao Wang
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Bei Liu
- Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Qing-Bin Lu
- Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research & Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Jia Shang
- Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, 450000, PR China
| | - Yihua Zhou
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, 210008, PR China
| | - Jidong Jia
- Liver Research Centre, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, PR China
| | - Xiaoyuan Xu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing 100034, PR China
| | - Huiying Rao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Hepatitis C and Immunotherapy for Liver Diseases, Peking University Hepatology Institute, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, 100044, PR China
| | - Bingfeng Han
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Tianshuo Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Linyi Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Mingzhu Xie
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Jiahao Cui
- Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, SW72AZ, UK
| | - Juan Du
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Jing zeng
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Ninghua huang
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Yaqiong Liu
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Lei Zhang
- China-Australia Joint Research Centre for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Centre, Xi'an, 710049, PR China
- Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, 3800, Australia
- Artificial Intelligence and Modelling in Epidemiology Program, Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne 3800, Australia
| | - Hui Zhuang
- Department of Microbiology and Centre for Infectious Diseases, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, 100191, PR China
| | - Fuqiang Cui
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Vaccine Research Center, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Global Center for Infectious Disease and Policy Research & Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
- Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, 100191, PR China
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11
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Mao HD, Zheng SQ, Yang SH, Huang ZY, Xue Y, Zhou M. A new model predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related decompensated liver cirrhosis and long-term antiviral therapy: a prospective study. PeerJ 2023; 11:e15014. [PMID: 36992940 PMCID: PMC10042153 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Background We aimed to evaluate the prediction values of non-invasive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and long-term NA treatment. Methods Patients with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis (DC), who achieved long-term virological response, were enrolled. DC and its stages were defined by the complications including ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, or renal failure. Prediction accuracy of several risk scores, including ALBI, CAMD, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B and aMAP, was compared. Results The median follow-up duration was 37 (28-66) months. Among the 229 patients, 9 (9.57%) patients in the compensated LC group and 39 (28.89%) patients in the DC group developed HCC. The incidence of HCC was higher in the DC group ( X 2 = 12.478, P < 0.01). The AUROC of ALBI, aMAP, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were 0.512, 0.667, 0.638, 0.663, 0.679, respectively. There was no significant difference in AUROC between CAMD, aMAP, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B (all P > 0.05). Univariable analysis showed that age, DC status and platelet were associated with HCC development, and multivariable analysis showed that age and DC status (both P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for HCC development, then Model (Age_DC) was developed and its AUROC was 0.718. Another model, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil was also developed, and its AUROC was larger than that of Model (Age_DC) (0.760 vs. 0.718). Moreover, AUROC of Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) was larger than the other five models (all P < 0.05). With an optimal cut-off value of 0.236, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) achieved 70.83% sensitivity, 76.24% specificity. Conclusion There is a lack of non-invasive risk scores for HCC development in HBV-related DC, and a new model consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil may be an alternative.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao-dan Mao
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Shu-qin Zheng
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Su-hua Yang
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ze-yu Huang
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Yuan Xue
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Min Zhou
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
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12
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Sohn W, Paik YH. Correspondence on Editorial regarding "Impact of nationwide hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance on the prognosis in patients with chronic liver disease". Clin Mol Hepatol 2023; 29:182-184. [PMID: 36417888 PMCID: PMC9845662 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2022.0411] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Accepted: 11/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Won Sohn
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yong-Han Paik
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea,Department of Health Science and Technology, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Science and Technology, Sunkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea,Corresponding author : Yong-Han Paik Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine and Department of Health Science and Technology, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Science and Technology, Sunkyunkwan University, 81 Irwon-ro Gangnam-gu, Seoul 06351, Korea Tel: +82-2-3410-3878, Fax: +82-2-3410-6983, E-mail:
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13
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Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis. Diagnostics (Basel) 2022; 13:diagnostics13010003. [PMID: 36611295 PMCID: PMC9818663 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13010003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2022] [Revised: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.
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14
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Kim BH, Cho Y, Park JW. Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: It is time to move forward. Clin Mol Hepatol 2022; 28:810-813. [PMID: 36064304 PMCID: PMC9597219 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2022.0257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2022] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Bo Hyun Kim
- Center for Liver and Pancreatobiliary Cancer, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
| | - Yuri Cho
- Center for Liver and Pancreatobiliary Cancer, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
| | - Joong-Won Park
- Center for Liver and Pancreatobiliary Cancer, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
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