Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019

Growing burden of inflammatory bowel disease in China: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and predictions to 2035

BACKGROUND

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) imposes a significant economic and social burden in China. We aim to assess the epidemiological trends of IBD in China, and to predict the burden in the near future.

METHODS

The incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) of IBD from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), average annual percent change, total percent change, and age-period-cohort model were used to access trends. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the risk of incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

In 2021, IBD affected 168,077 people in China, with 24,941 new cases and 5640 deaths. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and death was 1.4 and 0.3, respectively. The incidence and prevalence in China were lower than the global and high socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, but the ASR of incidence and prevalence (EAPC: 2.93 and 2.54, respectively) had rapidly increased from 1990 to 2021. The ASR of death and DALYs had significantly decreased (EAPC: -3.05 and -2.93, respectively). Middle-aged and elderly populations faced a severe burden of incidence and prevalence, while the elderly population faced a severe mortality burden. It is projected that by 2035, the ASR of incidence will continue to rise, whereas the death rate will continue to decline.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of IBD in China is serious and increasingly severe. Establishing a comprehensive disease management system in China will help better control the medical burden of IBD.

Trends of Pathological Findings in Patients with Thyroid Diseases: A Single-center, Retrospective Study

Background

Globally, a rising trend has been observed in the prevalence of thyroid disorders, with many demographic and geographic factors influencing its epidemiology. Nonetheless, some cases often go undetected due to the inconsistent and non-specific nature of the clinical symptoms. Therefore, we aimed to determine the trend and relationship between various pathological findings in thyroid disease patients and their demographic factors to aid clinicians in making a prompt diagnosis and treatment plan.

Methods

A descriptive correlational study was conducted from January 2020 to May 2022 at Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Center, Karachi. We collected data via random sampling from 258 patients suffering from thyroid disorders. We evaluated baseline patient characteristics, along with, thyroid scan and fine needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) reports, and local thyroid gland examination findings.

Results

Out of 258 participants, 192 (74.4%) were females, whereas 66 (25.6%) were males, giving a female: male ratio of 2.9: 1. On local examination, 167 (64.7%) were found to have a solitary nodule, 79 (30.6%) had multinodular goiter. Findings revealed that benign follicular lesions had the highest prevalence (35.3%). Moreover, among the cancerous growth, papillary carcinoma presented the highest cases (12.4%). Of 258 cases, 24 patients had non-surgical interventions, while most (234) had surgical interventions. Total thyroidectomy was the most common procedure opted for by 45.3% (n = 117) of the participants, followed by lobectomy 70 (27.1%), near total thyroidectomy 43 (13.2%), modified radical neck dissection 5 (1.9%).

Conclusion

Our study showed that nearly all thyroid-related pathologies were more prevalent amongst females than males, with the majority having an acute to sub-acute clinical presentation. Multinodular goiter was a prominent finding indicating a greater need for screening tools and access to healthcare facilities, especially in rural areas, to allow future studies to compare provinces accurately.

Global burden of thyroid cancer in 2022: Incidence and mortality estimates from GLOBOCAN

BACKGROUND

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignancy of the endocrine system. This study aimed to assess the global distribution of TC incidence and mortality in 2022, as well as to predict the burden for the year 2050.

METHODS

Data from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database were used to analyze the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TC by sex, age group (<55 years and ≥55 years), country, world region, and level of Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. The predicted incidence and mortality burden for 2050 was calculated based on demographic projections.

RESULTS

In 2022, an estimated 821,214 new TC cases and 47,507 TC-related deaths occurred worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were higher in women (ASIR: 13.60 per 100,000; ASMR: 0.53 per 100,000) than in men (ASIR: 4.60 per 100,000; ASMR: 0.35 per 100,000). The ASIR in high HDI countries was approximately ten times higher than that in low HDI countries for both sexes, with relatively similar ASMR across regions. Among 185 countries, China had the largest number of TC cases (accounting for 56.77% of total cases) and TC-related deaths (accounting for 24.35% of global TC-related deaths), with the highest ASIR in men (13.30 per 100,000). Worldwide, approximately 64.63% of TC cases occurred in populations under 55 years old, while nearly 82.99% of TC-related deaths occurred in populations aged 55 years and above. If the rates stay the same as in 2022, it is projected that approximately 1,100,000 new TC cases and 91,000 TC-related deaths will occur in 2050, indicating a 34.15% and 89.58% increase, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

TC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide with disparities across regions, genders, and age groups. Our results provide light on the worldwide TC disease burden and facilitate regionally customized prevention measures.

Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020-2040

Background

Thyroid cancer, a leading type of endocrine cancer, accounts for 3-4% of all cancer diagnoses. This study aims to analyse and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the Group twenty (G20) countries, and predict these trend for the upcoming two decades.

Methods

This observational longitudinal study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We used metrics including incidence, mortality, mortality-incidence ratio (MIR), age-standardised rate (ASR) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to examine thyroid cancer trends. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and AAPC were investigated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence cases in China increased by 289.6%, with a higher AAPC of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) in men. Contrastingly, the G20 demonstrated a smaller increase, particularly among women over 50. Despite the overall age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was higher in the G20, the increase in mortality was less pronounced than in China. Age-standardised incidence rate increased across all age groups and genders, with a notable rise among men aged 15-49. ASMR decreased in specific age groups and genders, especially among women. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged over 70. The MIR exhibited a declining trend, but this decrease was less noticeable in men and the group aged over 70. Joinpoint analysis pinpointed significant shifts in overall ASIR and ASMR, with the most pronounced increase in ASIR during 2003-2011 in China and 2003-2010 in the G20. Predictions suggested a continual ASIR uptrend, especially in the 50-69 age group, coupled with a predicted ASMR downturn among the elderly by 2040. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths attributable to high body mass index (BMI) escalated, with significant increase in Saudi Arabia and a rise to 7.4% in China in 2019.

Conclusions

Thyroid cancer cases in incidence and mortality are escalating in both China and the G20. The increasing trend may be attributed to factors beyond overdiagnosis, including environmental and genetic factors. These findings emphasise the necessity for augmenting prevention, control, and treatment strategies. They also highlight the significance of international collaboration in addressing the global challenge posed by thyroid cancer.

The growing cancer burden: Age-period-cohort projections in Aotearoa New Zealand 2020-2044

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a major cause of premature death and inequity, and global case numbers are rapidly expanding. This study projects future cancer numbers and incidence rates in Aotearoa New Zealand.

METHODS

Age-period-cohort modelling was applied to 25-years of national data to project cancer cases and incidence trends from 2020 to 2044. Nationally mandated cancer registry data and official historical and projected population estimates were used, with sub-groups by age, sex, and ethnicity.

RESULTS

Cancer diagnoses were projected to increase from 25,700 per year in 2015-2019 to 45,100 a year by 2040-44, a 76% increase (2.3% per annum). Across the same period, age-standardised cancer incidence increased by 9% (0.3% per annum) from 348 to 378 cancers per 100,000 person years, with greater increases for males (11%) than females (6%). Projected incidence trends varied substantially by cancer type, with several projected to change faster or in the opposite direction compared to projections from other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing cancer numbers reinforces the critical need for both cancer prevention and treatment service planning activities. Investment in developing new ways of working and increasing the workforce are required for the health system to be able to afford and manage the future burden of cancer.

Study on the burden of digestive diseases among Chinese residents in the 21st century

Background

The global burden of digestive diseases has increased in recent years. The study aims to comprehend the trend of incidence and death rates related to digestive diseases in China from 2000 to 2020.

Methods

The study collected data on digestive diseases and their causes, such as incidence rates, death rates, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, Disability-Adjusted Life Years and estimated annual percentage change from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease website and the Chinese Health and Wellness Statistical Yearbook spanning. And we employed the age-period-cohort model to analyze the influence of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of death rates associated with digestive diseases.

Results

In contrast to the global burden of digestive disease, China experienced increases in the age-standardized incidence for inflammatory bowel disease, gallbladder and biliary diseases, as well as appendicitis from 2000 to 2019. The corresponding estimated annual percentage change for these diseases were 2.06, 1.74, and 0.99. Females showed a significantly higher incidence of digestive diseases, while males experienced a higher death rate. Moreover, individuals in the age groups under 5 years and over 60 years exhibited higher death rates than those in other age groups.

Conclusion

The findings underscore the ongoing importance of digestive diseases as a substantial public health issue in China. Reducing the disease burden of IBD in China necessitates healthcare systems to enhance their infrastructure and personnel readiness, ensuring an equitable, affordable, and accessible distribution of care for IBD patients. To reduce the occurrence and mortality rates of digestive diseases in China, the government should promote the adoption of early screening policies for individuals under the 5 year and those above the 60 year. These policies should be accompanied by customized preventive measures.