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Lovell RSL, Collins S, Martin SH, Pigot AL, Phillimore AB. Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2023; 98:2243-2270. [PMID: 37558208 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rebecca S L Lovell
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Sinead Collins
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Simon H Martin
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Albert B Phillimore
- Ashworth Laboratories, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
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2
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Duchardt CJ, Augustine DJ, Porensky LM, Beck JL, Hennig JD, Pellatz DW, Scasta JD, Connell LC, Davidson AD. Disease and weather induce rapid shifts in a rangeland ecosystem mediated by a keystone species (Cynomys ludovicianus). ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2712. [PMID: 36404372 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Habitat loss and changing climate have direct impacts on native species but can also interact with disease pathogens to influence wildlife communities. In the North American Great Plains, black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a keystone species that create important grassland habitat for numerous species and serve as prey for predators, but lethal control driven by agricultural conflict has severely reduced their abundance. Novel disease dynamics caused by epizootic plague (Yersinia pestis) within prairie dog colonies have further reduced prairie dog abundances, in turn destabilizing associated wildlife communities. We capitalized on a natural experiment, collecting data on prairie dog distributions, vegetation structure, avian abundance, and mesocarnivore and ungulate occupancy before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2019) a plague event in northeastern Wyoming, USA. Plague decimated black-tailed prairie dog populations in what was then the largest extant colony complex, reducing colony cover in the focal area from more than 10,000 ha to less than 50 ha. We documented dramatic declines in mesocarnivore occupancy and raptor abundance post-plague, with probability of occupancy or abundance approaching zero in species that rely on prairie dogs for a high proportion of their diet (e.g., ferruginous hawk [Buteo regalis], American badger [Taxidea taxus], and swift fox [Vulpes velox]). Following the plague outbreak, abnormally high precipitation in 2018 hastened vegetation recovery from prairie dog disturbance on colonies in which constant herbivory had formerly maintained shortgrass structure necessary for certain colony-associates. As a result, we observed large shifts in avian communities on former prairie dog colonies, including near-disappearance of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) and increases in mid-grass associated songbirds (e.g., lark bunting [Calamospiza melanocorys]). Our research highlights how precipitation can interact with disease-induced loss of a keystone species to induce drastic and rapid shifts in wildlife communities. Although grassland taxa have co-evolved with high spatiotemporal variation, fragmentation of the remaining North American rangelands paired with higher-than-historical variability in climate and disease dynamics are likely to destabilize these systems in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Courtney J Duchardt
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | | | | | - Jeffrey L Beck
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | - Jacob D Hennig
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | - David W Pellatz
- Thunder Basin Grassland Prairie Ecosystem Association, Bill, Wyoming, USA
| | - J Derek Scasta
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | | | - Ana D Davidson
- Colorado Natural Heritage Program, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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3
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Daugaard U, Munch SB, Inauen D, Pennekamp F, Petchey OL. Forecasting in the face of ecological complexity: Number and strength of species interactions determine forecast skill in ecological communities. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1974-1985. [PMID: 35831269 PMCID: PMC9540476 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2022] [Revised: 06/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
The potential for forecasting the dynamics of ecological systems is currently unclear, with contrasting opinions regarding its feasibility due to ecological complexity. To investigate forecast skill within and across systems, we monitored a microbial system exposed to either constant or fluctuating temperatures in a 5-month-long laboratory experiment. We tested how forecasting of species abundances depends on the number and strength of interactions and on model size (number of predictors). We also tested how greater system complexity (i.e. the fluctuating temperatures) impacted these relations. We found that the more interactions a species had, the weaker these interactions were and the better its abundance was predicted. Forecast skill increased with model size. Greater system complexity decreased forecast skill for three out of eight species. These insights into how abundance prediction depends on the connectedness of the species within the system and on overall system complexity could improve species forecasting and monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Uriah Daugaard
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Stephan B Munch
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - David Inauen
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Frank Pennekamp
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Owen L Petchey
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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4
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Changes in precipitation patterns can destabilize plant species coexistence via changes in plant-soil feedback. Nat Ecol Evol 2022; 6:546-554. [PMID: 35347257 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-022-01700-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
Climate change can alter species coexistence through changes in biotic interactions. By describing reciprocal interactions between plants and soil microbes, plant-soil feedback (PSF) has emerged as a powerful framework for predicting plant species coexistence and community dynamics, but little is known about how PSF will respond to changing climate conditions. Hence, the context dependency of PSF has recently gained attention. Water availability is a major driver of all biotic interactions, and it is expected that precipitation patterns will change with ongoing climate change. We tested how soil water content affects PSF by conducting a full factorial pairwise PSF experiment using eight plant species common to southeastern United States coastal prairies under three watering treatments. We found coexistence-stabilizing negative PSF at drier-than-average conditions shifted to coexistence-destabilizing positive PSF under wetter-than-average conditions. A simulation model parameterized with the experimental results supports the prediction that more positive PSF accelerates the erosion of diversity within communities while decreasing the predictability in plant community composition. Our results underline the importance of considering environmental context dependency of PSF in light of a rapidly changing climate.
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5
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Lloret F, Jaime LA, Margalef-Marrase J, Pérez-Navarro MA, Batllori E. Short-term forest resilience after drought-induced die-off in Southwestern European forests. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:150940. [PMID: 34699836 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2021] [Revised: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/08/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Drought-induced die-off in forests is becoming a widespread phenomenon across biomes, but the factors determining potential shifts in taxonomic and structural characteristics following mortality are largely unknown. We report on short-term patterns of resilience after drought-induced episodes of tree mortality across 48 monospecific forests from Morocco to Slovenia. Field surveys recorded plants growing beneath a canopy of dead, defoliated and healthy trees. Site-level structural characteristics and management legacy were also recorded. Resilience was assessed with reference to forest composition (self-replacement), structure, and changes in the climatic suitability of the replacing community relative to the climatic suitability of the dominant pre-drought species. Species climatic suitability was estimated from species distribution models calculated for the baseline 1970-2000 period. Short-term resilience decreased under higher levels of drought-induced damage to the dominant species and with evidences of management legacy. Greater resilience of structural features (fewer gaps, greater canopy height) was observed overall in forests with a larger basal area. Less gaps were also associated with greater woody species richness after drought. Overall, Fagaceae-dominated forests exhibited greater structural resilience than conifer-dominated ones. On those sites that were more climatically suited to the dominant pre-drought species, replacing communities tended to exhibit lower climatic suitability than pre-drought dominant species. There was a greater loss of climatic suitability under a legacy of management and drought intensity, but less so in the replacing communities with higher woody species richness. Our study reveals that short-term forest resilience is determined by pre-drought stand characteristics, often reflecting previous management legacies, and by the impact of drought on both the dominant pre-drought species and post-drought replacing species in terms of their climatic suitability.
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Affiliation(s)
- F Lloret
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain; Unitat d'Ecologia, Departament de Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecologia, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - L A Jaime
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - J Margalef-Marrase
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - M A Pérez-Navarro
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - E Batllori
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain; Unitat de Botànica i Micologia, Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
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6
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Barnagaud J, Brockerhoff EG, Mossion R, Dufour P, Pavoine S, Deconchat M, Barbaro L. Trait‐habitat associations explain novel bird assemblages mixing native and alien species across New Zealand landscapes. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Eckehard G. Brockerhoff
- Scion (New Zealand Forest Research Institute) Christchurch New Zealand
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
| | - Raphaël Mossion
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier CNRS, EPHE‐PSL University, IRD Montpellier France
| | - Paul Dufour
- Laboratoire d’Écologie Alpine CNRS Univ. Savoie Mont BlancCNRSLECAUniv. Grenoble Alpes Grenoble France
| | - Sandrine Pavoine
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)Sorbonne Université Paris France
| | - Marc Deconchat
- DYNAFOR INRA Université de Toulouse Castanet‐Tolosan France
| | - Luc Barbaro
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)Sorbonne Université Paris France
- DYNAFOR INRA Université de Toulouse Castanet‐Tolosan France
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7
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Barbour MA, Gibert JP. Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change. J Anim Ecol 2021; 90:1814-1830. [PMID: 34028791 PMCID: PMC8453762 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 05/17/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales. We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems. We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose. By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew A Barbour
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Jean P Gibert
- Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
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8
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Gaüzère P, Devictor V. Mismatches between birds' spatial and temporal dynamics reflect their delayed response to global changes. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.08289] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Gaüzère
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine Grenoble France
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9
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Schweiger AH, Nürk NM, Beckett H, Liede-Schumann S, Midgley GF, Higgins SI. The eco-evolutionary significance of rainfall constancy for facultative CAM photosynthesis. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2021; 230:1653-1664. [PMID: 33533483 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2020] [Accepted: 01/28/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
A flexible use of the crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) has been hypothesised to represent an intermediate stage along a C3 to full CAM evolutionary continuum, when relative contributions of C3 vs CAM metabolism are co-determined by evolutionary history and prevailing environmental constraints. However, evidence for such eco-evolutionary interdependencies is lacking. We studied these interdependencies for the leaf-succulent genus Drosanthemum (Aizoaceae, Southern African Succulent Karoo) by testing for relationships between leaf δ13 C diagnostic for CAM dependence (i.e. contribution of C3 and CAM to net carbon gain), and climatic variables related to temperature and precipitation and their temporal variation. We further quantified the effects of shared phylogenetic ancestry on CAM dependence and its relation to climate. CAM dependence is predicted by rainfall and its temporal variation, with high predictive power of rainfall constancy (temporal entropy). The predictive power of rainfall seasonality and temperature-related variables was negligible. Evolutionary history of the tested clades significantly affected the relationship between rainfall constancy and CAM dependence. We argue that higher CAM dependence might provide an adaptive advantage in increasingly unpredictable rainfall environments when the anatomic exaptation (succulence) is already present. These observations might shed light on the evolution of full CAM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas H Schweiger
- Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology, Department of Plant Ecology, University of Hohenheim, Ottilie-Zeller-Weg 2, Stuttgart, 70599, Germany
| | - Nicolai M Nürk
- Plant Systematics, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447, Germany
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447, Germany
| | - Heath Beckett
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, SUN, Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa
| | - Sigrid Liede-Schumann
- Plant Systematics, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447, Germany
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447, Germany
| | - Guy F Midgley
- Department of Botany and Zoology, Stellenbosch University, SUN, Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa
| | - Steven I Higgins
- Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447, Germany
- Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstr. 30, Bayreuth, 95447, Germany
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10
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Pérez‐Navarro MÁ, Serra‐Diaz JM, Svenning J, Esteve‐Selma MÁ, Hernández‐Bastida J, Lloret F. Extreme drought reduces climatic disequilibrium in dryland plant communities. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.07882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Josep M. Serra‐Diaz
- Univ. de Lorraine, AgroParisTech, Inra, Silva Nancy France
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Dept of Bioscience, Aarhus Univ. Aarhus C Denmark
| | - Jens‐Christian Svenning
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Dept of Bioscience, Aarhus Univ. Aarhus C Denmark
- Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Dept of Bioscience, Aarhus Univ. Aarhus C Denmark
| | | | - Joaquin Hernández‐Bastida
- Dept of Agricultural Chemistry, Geology and Soil Science, Univ. of Murcia, Campus de Espinardo Murcia Spain
| | - Francisco Lloret
- CREAF, Bellaterra (Cerdanyola del Vallès) Catalonia Spain
- Univ. Autonomous of Barcelona, Bellaterra (Cersanyola del Valès) Catalonia Spain
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11
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Fourcade Y, WallisDeVries MF, Kuussaari M, van Swaay CAM, Heliölä J, Öckinger E. Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:950-957. [PMID: 33694308 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoan Fourcade
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.,Univ Paris Est Creteil, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement, IEES, Creteil, F-94010, France
| | - Michiel F WallisDeVries
- De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands.,Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Chris A M van Swaay
- De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Erik Öckinger
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
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12
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Vaughan IP, Gotelli NJ. Using Climatic Credits to Pay the Climatic Debt. Trends Ecol Evol 2020; 36:104-112. [PMID: 33129587 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2020.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Revised: 08/13/2020] [Accepted: 10/01/2020] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Many organisms are accumulating climatic debt as they respond more slowly than expected to rising global temperatures, leading to disequilibrium of species diversity with contemporary climate. The resulting transient dynamics are complex and may cause overoptimistic biodiversity assessments. We propose a simple budget framework to integrate climatic debt with two classes of intervention: (i) climatic credits that pay some of the debt, reducing the overall biological change required to reach a new equilibrium; and (ii) options to adjust the debt repayment rate, either making a system more responsive by increasing the rate or temporarily reducing the rate to buy more time for local adaptation and credit implementation. We illustrate how this budget can be created and highlight limitations and challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian P Vaughan
- School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.
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13
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Pilotto F, Kühn I, Adrian R, Alber R, Alignier A, Andrews C, Bäck J, Barbaro L, Beaumont D, Beenaerts N, Benham S, Boukal DS, Bretagnolle V, Camatti E, Canullo R, Cardoso PG, Ens BJ, Everaert G, Evtimova V, Feuchtmayr H, García-González R, Gómez García D, Grandin U, Gutowski JM, Hadar L, Halada L, Halassy M, Hummel H, Huttunen KL, Jaroszewicz B, Jensen TC, Kalivoda H, Schmidt IK, Kröncke I, Leinonen R, Martinho F, Meesenburg H, Meyer J, Minerbi S, Monteith D, Nikolov BP, Oro D, Ozoliņš D, Padedda BM, Pallett D, Pansera M, Pardal MÂ, Petriccione B, Pipan T, Pöyry J, Schäfer SM, Schaub M, Schneider SC, Skuja A, Soetaert K, Spriņģe G, Stanchev R, Stockan JA, Stoll S, Sundqvist L, Thimonier A, Van Hoey G, Van Ryckegem G, Visser ME, Vorhauser S, Haase P. Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe. Nat Commun 2020; 11:3486. [PMID: 32661354 PMCID: PMC7359034 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17171-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2019] [Accepted: 06/16/2020] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising ~6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesca Pilotto
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany.
- Environmental Archaeology Lab, Department of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.
| | - Ingolf Kühn
- Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Halle, Germany
- Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Halle, Germany
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle - Jena - Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Rita Adrian
- Department of Ecosystem Research, Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries & Department of Biology, Chemistry and Pharmacy, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Renate Alber
- Biological Laboratory, Agency for Environment and Climate Protection, Bolzano, Italy
| | - Audrey Alignier
- UMR 0980 BAGAP, INRAE - Institut Agro - ESA, Rennes, France
- LTSER Zone Atelier Armorique, 35042, Rennes, France
| | | | - Jaana Bäck
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth system Research, Department of Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Luc Barbaro
- Dynafor, INRAE, University of Toulouse, France & CESCO, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne-Univ, Paris, France & LTSER Zone Atelier Pyrénées Garonne, Auzeville-Tolosane, France
| | | | - Natalie Beenaerts
- Centre for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
| | | | - David S Boukal
- University of South Bohemia, Faculty of Science, Department of Ecosystem Biology & Soil and Water Research Infrastructure, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
- Czech Academy of Sciences, Biology Centre, Institute of Entomology, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
| | - Vincent Bretagnolle
- CEBC, UMR7372, CNRS & La Rochelle University, 79360, Villiers en bois, France
- LTSER Zone Atelier Plaine & Val de Sèvre, 79360, Beauvoir sur Niort, France
| | - Elisa Camatti
- Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice, Italy
| | - Roberto Canullo
- School of Biosciences and Veterinary Medicine, unit Plant Diversity and Ecosystems Management, University of Camerino, Camerino, Italy
| | - Patricia G Cardoso
- CIIMAR, Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research of the University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Bruno J Ens
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Vesela Evtimova
- Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Heidrun Feuchtmayr
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, UK
| | | | | | - Ulf Grandin
- Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Jerzy M Gutowski
- Department of Natural Forests, Forest Research Institute, Białowieża, Poland
| | | | - Lubos Halada
- Institute of Landscape Ecology SAS, Branch Nitra, Slovakia
| | - Melinda Halassy
- MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Institute of Ecology and Botany, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Herman Hummel
- Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, and Utrecht University, Yerseke, The Netherlands
| | - Kaisa-Leena Huttunen
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Oulanka Research Station, University of Oulu Infrastructure Platform, Kuusamo, Finland
| | - Bogdan Jaroszewicz
- Białowieża Geobotanical Station, Faculty of Biology, University of Warsaw, Białowieża, Poland
| | | | | | - Inger Kappel Schmidt
- Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ingrid Kröncke
- Senckenberg am Meer, Marine Research Department, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Reima Leinonen
- Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, Kajaani, Finland
| | - Filipe Martinho
- Centre For Functional Ecology (CFE), Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
| | | | - Julia Meyer
- Senckenberg am Meer, Marine Research Department, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Stefano Minerbi
- Forest Services, Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol, Bolzano, Italy
| | - Don Monteith
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster, UK
| | - Boris P Nikolov
- Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Daniel Oro
- CEAB (CSIC), 17300, Blanes, Spain
- IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), 07190, Esporles, Spain
| | - Dāvis Ozoliņš
- Institute of Biology, University of Latvia, Salaspils, Latvia
| | - Bachisio M Padedda
- Dipartimento di Architettura, Design e Urbanistica, Università degli Studi di Sassari, Sassari, Italy
| | | | - Marco Pansera
- Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Venice, Italy
| | - Miguel Ângelo Pardal
- Centre For Functional Ecology (CFE), Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Bruno Petriccione
- Carabinieri, Biodiversity and Park Protection Department, Castel di Sangro Biodiversity Unit, L'Aquila, Italy
| | - Tanja Pipan
- ZRC SAZU Karst Research Institute, Ljubljana & UNESCO Chair on Karst Education University of Nova Gorica, Vipava, Slovenia
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Biodiversity Centre, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Marcus Schaub
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Agnija Skuja
- Institute of Biology, University of Latvia, Salaspils, Latvia
| | - Karline Soetaert
- Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, and Utrecht University, Yerseke, The Netherlands
| | - Gunta Spriņģe
- Institute of Biology, University of Latvia, Salaspils, Latvia
| | - Radoslav Stanchev
- Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Jenni A Stockan
- Ecological Sciences, James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Stefan Stoll
- University of Applied Sciences Trier, Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, Birkenfeld, Germany
- University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Lisa Sundqvist
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Anne Thimonier
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Gert Van Hoey
- Flanders Research Institute for Agriculture, Fishery and Food, Oostende, Belgium
| | | | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Samuel Vorhauser
- Biological Laboratory, Agency for Environment and Climate Protection, Bolzano, Italy
| | - Peter Haase
- Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, Gelnhausen, Germany.
- University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
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14
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Rees WG, Hofgaard A, Boudreau S, Cairns DM, Harper K, Mamet S, Mathisen I, Swirad Z, Tutubalina O. Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change? GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3965-3977. [PMID: 32281711 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2019] [Accepted: 03/28/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.
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Affiliation(s)
- W Gareth Rees
- Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Stéphane Boudreau
- Département de biologie, Centre d'études Nordiques, Université Laval, QC, Canada
| | - David M Cairns
- Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
| | - Karen Harper
- School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Steven Mamet
- College of Agriculture and Bioresources, Department of Soil Science, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
| | | | - Zuzanna Swirad
- Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Olga Tutubalina
- Faculty of Geography, M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
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