Prediction of Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Using MRI and Structural Network Features

Combined cognitive assessment and automated MRI volumetry improves the diagnostic accuracy of detecting MCI due to Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) confers a high annual risk of 10-15 % of conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. MRI atrophy patterns derived from automated ROI analysis, particularly hippocampal subfield volumes, were reported to be useful in diagnosing early clinical stages of Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to combine automated ROI MRI morphometry of hippocampal subfield volumes and cortical thickness estimates using FreeSurfer 6.0 with cognitive measures to predict disease progression and time to conversion from MCI to AD dementia.

METHODS

Baseline (Neuropsychology, MRI) and clinical follow-up data from 62 MCI patients were analysed retrospectively. Individual cortical thickness and volumetric measures were obtained from T1-weighted MRI. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) of both, cognitive measures and MRI measures (hippocampal subfields, temporal and parietal lobe volumes), were performed to differentiate MCI converters from stable MCI patients.

RESULTS

Out of 62 MCI patients 21 (34 %) converted to AD dementia within a mean follow-up time of 74.7 ± 36.8 months (mean ± SD, range 12 to 130 months). LDA identified temporal lobe atrophy and hippocampal subfield volumes in combination with cognitive measures of verbal memory, verbal fluency and executive functions to correctly classify 71.4.% of MCI subjects converting to AD dementia and 92.7 % with stable MCI. Lower baseline GM volume of the subiculum and the superior temporal gyrus was associated with faster disease progression of MCI converters.

CONCLUSION

Combining cognitive assessment with automated ROI MRI morphometry is superior to using a single test in order to distinguish MCI due to AD from non converting MCI patients.

Prediction of future dementia among patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by integrating multimodal clinical data

Efficiently and objectively analyzing the complex, diverse multimodal data collected from patients at risk for dementia can be difficult in the clinical setting, contributing to high rates of underdiagnosis or misdiagnosis of this serious disorder. Patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are especially at risk of developing dementia in the future. This study evaluated the ability of multi-modal machine learning (ML) methods, especially the Ensemble Integration (EI) framework, to predict future dementia development among patients with MCI. EI is a machine learning framework designed to leverage complementarity and consensus in multimodal data, which may not be adequately captured by methods used by prior dementia-related prediction studies. We tested EI's ability to predict future dementia development among MCI patients using multimodal clinical and imaging data, such as neuroanatomical measurements from structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) scans, from The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) challenge. For predicting future dementia development among MCI patients, on a held out test set, the EI-based model performed better (AUC = 0.81, F-measure = 0.68) than the more commonly used XGBoost (AUC = 0.68, F-measure = 0.57) and deep learning (AUC = 0.79, F-measure = 0.61) approaches. This EI-based model also suggested MRI-derived volumes of regions in the middle temporal gyrus, posterior cingulate gyrus and inferior lateral ventricle brain regions to be predictive of progression to dementia.

Predicting long-term progression of Alzheimer's disease using a multimodal deep learning model incorporating interaction effects

BACKGROUND

Identifying individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at risk of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) provides a unique opportunity for early interventions. Therefore, accurate and long-term prediction of the conversion from MCI to AD is desired but, to date, remains challenging. Here, we developed an interpretable deep learning model featuring a novel design that incorporates interaction effects and multimodality to improve the prediction accuracy and horizon for MCI-to-AD progression.

METHODS

This multi-center, multi-cohort retrospective study collected structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), clinical assessments, and genetic polymorphism data of 252 patients with MCI at baseline from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Our deep learning model was cross-validated on the ADNI-1 and ADNI-2/GO cohorts and further generalized in the ongoing ADNI-3 cohort. We evaluated the model performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score.

RESULTS

On the cross-validation set, our model achieved superior results for predicting MCI conversion within 4 years (AUC, 0.962; accuracy, 92.92%; sensitivity, 88.89%; specificity, 95.33%) compared to all existing studies. In the independent test, our model exhibited consistent performance with an AUC of 0.939 and an accuracy of 92.86%. Integrating interaction effects and multimodal data into the model significantly increased prediction accuracy by 4.76% (P = 0.01) and 4.29% (P = 0.03), respectively. Furthermore, our model demonstrated robustness to inter-center and inter-scanner variability, while generating interpretable predictions by quantifying the contribution of multimodal biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed deep learning model presents a novel perspective by combining interaction effects and multimodality, leading to more accurate and longer-term predictions of AD progression, which promises to improve pre-dementia patient care.

Prospective classification of Alzheimer's disease conversion from mild cognitive impairment

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is emerging as a serious problem with the rapid aging of the population, but due to the unclear cause of the disease and the absence of therapy, appropriate preventive measures are the next best thing. For this reason, it is important to early detect whether the disease converts from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) which is a prodromal phase of AD. With the advance in brain imaging techniques, various machine learning algorithms have become able to predict the conversion from MCI to AD by learning brain atrophy patterns. However, at the time of diagnosis, it is difficult to distinguish between the conversion group and the non-conversion group of subjects because the difference between groups is small, but the within-group variability is large in brain images. After a certain period of time, the subjects of conversion group show significant brain atrophy, whereas subjects of non-conversion group show only subtle changes due to the normal aging effect. This difference on brain atrophy makes the brain images more discriminative for learning. Motivated by this, we propose a method to perform classification by projecting brain images into the future, namely prospective classification. The experiments on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset show that the prospective classification outperforms ordinary classification. Moreover, the features of prospective classification indicate the brain regions that significantly influence the conversion from MCI to AD.

Generative adversarial network constrained multiple loss autoencoder: A deep learning-based individual atrophy detection for Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment

Exploring individual brain atrophy patterns is of great value in precision medicine for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). However, the current individual brain atrophy detection models are deficient. Here, we proposed a framework called generative adversarial network constrained multiple loss autoencoder (GANCMLAE) for precisely depicting individual atrophy patterns. The GANCMLAE model was trained using normal controls (NCs) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort, and the Xuanwu cohort was employed to validate the robustness of the model. The potential of the model for identifying different atrophy patterns of MCI subtypes was also assessed. Furthermore, the clinical application potential of the GANCMLAE model was investigated. The results showed that the model can achieve good image reconstruction performance on the structural similarity index measure (0.929 ± 0.003), peak signal-to-noise ratio (31.04 ± 0.09), and mean squared error (0.0014 ± 0.0001) with less latent loss in the Xuanwu cohort. The individual atrophy patterns extracted from this model are more precise in reflecting the clinical symptoms of MCI subtypes. The individual atrophy patterns exhibit a better discriminative power in identifying patients with AD and MCI from NCs than those of the t-test model, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.867 (95%: 0.837-0.897) and 0.752 (95%: 0.71-0.790), respectively. Similar findings are also reported in the AD and MCI subgroups. In conclusion, the GANCMLAE model can serve as an effective tool for individualised atrophy detection.

Application of 3D Whole-Brain Texture Analysis and the Feature Selection Method Based on within-Class Scatter in the Classification and Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are a high-risk group for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Thus, a reliable prediction of the conversion from MCI to AD based on three-dimensional (3D) texture features of MRI images could help doctors in developing effective treatment protocols.

METHODS

The 3D texture features of the whole-brain were deduced based on the gray-level co-occurrence matrix. Then, the embedded feature selection method based on least squares loss and within-class scatter (LSWCS) was employed to select the optimal subsets of features that were used for binary classification (AD, MCI_C, MCI_S, normal control in pairs) based on SVM. A tenfold cross validation was repeated ten times for each classification. LASSO, fused_LASSO, and group LASSO are used in feature selection step for comparison.

RESULTS

The accuracy and the selected features are the focus of clinical diagnosis reports, indicating that the feature selection algorithm is effective.

The Coupled Representation of Hierarchical Features for Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease Classification

Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features have played an increasingly crucial role in discriminating patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from normal controls (NC). However, the large number of structural MRI studies only extracted low-level neuroimaging features or simply concatenated multitudinous features while ignoring the interregional covariate information. The appropriate representation and integration of multilevel features will be preferable for the precise discrimination in the progression of AD. In this study, we proposed a novel inter-coupled feature representation method and built an integration model considering the two-level (the regions of interest (ROI) level and the network level) coupled features based on structural MRI data. For the intra-coupled interactions about the network-level features, we performed the ROI-level (intra- and inter-) coupled interaction within each network by feature expansion and coupling learning. For the inter-coupled interaction of the network-level features, we measured the coupled relationships among different networks via Canonical correlation analysis. We evaluated the classification performance using coupled feature representations on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. Results showed that the coupled integration model with hierarchical features achieved the optimal classification performance with an accuracy of 90.44% for AD and NC groups, with an accuracy of 87.72% for the MCI converter (MCI-c) and MCI non-converter (MCI-nc) groups. These findings suggested that our two-level coupled interaction representation of hierarchical features has been the effective means for the precise discrimination of MCI-c from MCI-nc groups and, therefore, helpful in the characterization of different AD courses.

Alzheimer's Disease Diagnosis and Biomarker Analysis Using Resting-State Functional MRI Functional Brain Network With Multi-Measures Features and Hippocampal Subfield and Amygdala Volume of Structural MRI

Accurate diagnosis of the initial phase of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential and crucial. The objective of this research was to employ efficient biomarkers for the diagnostic analysis and classification of AD based on combining structural MRI (sMRI) and resting-state functional MRI (rs-fMRI). So far, several anatomical MRI imaging markers for AD diagnosis have been identified. The use of cortical and subcortical volumes, the hippocampus, and amygdala volume, as well as genetic patterns, has proven to be beneficial in distinguishing patients with AD from the healthy population. The fMRI time series data have the potential for specific numerical information as well as dynamic temporal information. Voxel and graphical analyses have gained popularity for analyzing neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's and its prodromal phase, mild cognitive impairment (MCI). So far, these approaches have been utilized separately for the diagnosis of AD. In recent studies, the classification of cases of MCI into those that are not converted for a certain period as stable MCI (MCIs) and those that converted to AD as MCIc has been less commonly reported with inconsistent results. In this study, we verified and validated the potency of a proposed diagnostic framework to identify AD and differentiate MCIs from MCIc by utilizing the efficient biomarkers obtained from sMRI, along with functional brain networks of the frequency range .01-.027 at the resting state and the voxel-based features. The latter mainly included default mode networks (amplitude of low-frequency fluctuation [ALFF], fractional ALFF [ALFF], and regional homogeneity [ReHo]), degree centrality (DC), and salience networks (SN). Pearson's correlation coefficient for measuring fMRI functional networks has proven to be an efficient means for disease diagnosis. We applied the graph theory to calculate nodal features (nodal degree [ND], nodal path length [NL], and between centrality [BC]) as a graphical feature and analyzed the connectivity link between different brain regions. We extracted three-dimensional (3D) patterns to calculate regional coherence and then implement a univariate statistical t-test to access a 3D mask that preserves voxels showing significant changes. Similarly, from sMRI, we calculated the hippocampal subfield and amygdala nuclei volume using Freesurfer (version 6). Finally, we implemented and compared the different feature selection algorithms to integrate the structural features, brain networks, and voxel features to optimize the diagnostic identifications of AD using support vector machine (SVM) classifiers. We also compared the performance of SVM with Random Forest (RF) classifiers. The obtained results demonstrated the potency of our framework, wherein a combination of the hippocampal subfield, the amygdala volume, and brain networks with multiple measures of rs-fMRI could significantly enhance the accuracy of other approaches in diagnosing AD. The accuracy obtained by the proposed method was reported for binary classification. More importantly, the classification results of the less commonly reported MCIs vs. MCIc improved significantly. However, this research involved only the AD Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort to focus on the diagnosis of AD advancement by integrating sMRI and fMRI. Hence, the study's primary disadvantage is its small sample size. In this case, the dataset we utilized did not fully reflect the whole population. As a result, we cannot guarantee that our findings will be applicable to other populations.

A Tensorized Multitask Deep Learning Network for Progression Prediction of Alzheimer's Disease

With the advances in machine learning for the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), most studies have focused on either identifying the subject's status through classification algorithms or on predicting their cognitive scores through regression methods, neglecting the potential association between these two tasks. Motivated by the need to enhance the prospects for early diagnosis along with the ability to predict future disease states, this study proposes a deep neural network based on modality fusion, kernelization, and tensorization that perform multiclass classification and longitudinal regression simultaneously within a unified multitask framework. This relationship between multiclass classification and longitudinal regression is found to boost the efficacy of the final model in dealing with both tasks. Different multimodality scenarios are investigated, and complementary aspects of the multimodal features are exploited to simultaneously delineate the subject's label and predict related cognitive scores at future timepoints using baseline data. The main intent in this multitask framework is to consolidate the highest accuracy possible in terms of precision, sensitivity, F1 score, and area under the curve (AUC) in the multiclass classification task while maintaining the highest similarity in the MMSE score as measured through the correlation coefficient and the RMSE for all time points under the prediction task, with both tasks, run simultaneously under the same set of hyperparameters. The overall accuracy for multiclass classification of the proposed KTMnet method is 66.85 ± 3.77. The prediction results show an average RMSE of 2.32 ± 0.52 and a correlation of 0.71 ± 5.98 for predicting MMSE throughout the time points. These results are compared to state-of-the-art techniques reported in the literature. A discovery from the multitasking of this consolidated machine learning framework is that a set of hyperparameters that optimize the prediction results may not necessarily be the same as those that would optimize the multiclass classification. In other words, there is a breakpoint beyond which enhancing further the results of one process could lead to the downgrading in accuracy for the other.

A Transformer-based Multi-features Fusion Model for Prediction of Conversion in Mild Cognitive Impairment

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is usually considered the early stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Therefore, the accurate identification of MCI individuals with high risk in converting to AD is essential for the potential prevention and treatment of AD. Recently, the great success of deep learning has sparked interest in applying deep learning to neuroimaging field. However, deep learning techniques are prone to overfitting since available neuroimaging datasets are not sufficiently large. Therefore, we proposed a deep learning model fusing cortical features to address the issue of fusion and classification blocks. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, we compared seven different models on the same dataset in the literature. The results show that our proposed model outperformed the competing models in the prediction of MCI conversion with an accuracy of 83.3% in the testing dataset. Subsequently, we used deep learning to characterize the contribution of brain regions and different cortical features to MCI progression. The results revealed that the caudal anterior cingulate and pars orbitalis contributed most to the classification task, and our model pays more attention to volume features and cortical thickness features.

Analysis of Hippocampus Evolution Patterns and Prediction of Conversion in Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Multivariate Morphometry Statistics

Background: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI), which is generally regarded as the prodromal stage of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), is associated with morphological changes in brain structures, particularly the hippocampus. However, the indicators for characterizing the deformation of hippocampus in conventional methods are not precise enough and ignore the evolution information with the course of disease. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the temporal evolution pattern of MCI and predict the conversion of MCI to AD by using the multivariate morphometry statistics (MMS) as fine features. Methods: First, we extracted MMS features from MRI scans of 64 MCI converters (MCIc), 81 MCI patients who remained stable (MCIs), and 90 healthy controls (HC). To make full use of the time information, the dynamic MMS (DMMS) features were defined. Then, the areas with significant differences between pairs of the three groups were analyzed using statistical methods and the atrophy/expansion were identified by comparing the metrics. In parallel, patch selection, sparse coding, dictionary learning and maximum pooling were used for the dimensionality reduction and the ensemble classifier GentleBoost was used to classify MCIc and MCIs. Results: The longitudinal analysis revealed that the atrophy of both MCIc and MCIs mainly distributed in dorsal CA1, then spread to subiculum and other regions gradually, while the atrophy area of MCIc was larger and more significant. And the introduction of longitudinal information promoted the accuracy to 91.76% for conversion prediction. Conclusion: The dynamic information of hippocampus holds a huge potential for understanding the pathology of MCI.

A Role for Prior Knowledge in Statistical Classification of the Transition from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

BACKGROUND

The transition from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to dementia is of great interest to clinical research on Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. This phenomenon also serves as a valuable data source for quantitative methodological researchers developing new approaches for classification. However, the growth of machine learning (ML) approaches for classification may falsely lead many clinical researchers to underestimate the value of logistic regression (LR), which often demonstrates classification accuracy equivalent or superior to other ML methods. Further, when faced with many potential features that could be used for classifying the transition, clinical researchers are often unaware of the relative value of different approaches for variable selection.

OBJECTIVE

The present study sought to compare different methods for statistical classification and for automated and theoretically guided feature selection techniques in the context of predicting conversion from MCI to dementia.

METHODS

We used data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) to evaluate different influences of automated feature preselection on LR and support vector machine (SVM) classification methods, in classifying conversion from MCI to dementia.

RESULTS

The present findings demonstrate how similar performance can be achieved using user-guided, clinically informed pre-selection versus algorithmic feature selection techniques.

CONCLUSION

These results show that although SVM and other ML techniques are capable of relatively accurate classification, similar or higher accuracy can often be achieved by LR, mitigating SVM's necessity or value for many clinical researchers.

Predicting MCI to AD Conversation Using Integrated sMRI and rs-fMRI: Machine Learning and Graph Theory Approach

BACKGROUND

Graph theory and machine learning have been shown to be effective ways of classifying different stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Most previous studies have only focused on inter-subject classification with single-mode neuroimaging data. However, whether this classification can truly reflect the changes in the structure and function of the brain region in disease progression remains unverified. In the current study, we aimed to evaluate the classification framework, which combines structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging (sMRI) and resting-state functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (rs-fMRI) metrics, to distinguish mild cognitive impairment non-converters (MCInc)/AD from MCI converters (MCIc) by using graph theory and machine learning.

METHODS

With the intra-subject (MCInc vs. MCIc) and inter-subject (MCIc vs. AD) design, we employed cortical thickness features, structural brain network features, and sub-frequency (full-band, slow-4, slow-5) functional brain network features for classification. Three feature selection methods [random subset feature selection algorithm (RSFS), minimal redundancy maximal relevance (mRMR), and sparse linear regression feature selection algorithm based on stationary selection (SS-LR)] were used respectively to select discriminative features in the iterative combinations of MRI and network measures. Then support vector machine (SVM) classifier with nested cross-validation was employed for classification. We also compared the performance of multiple classifiers (Random Forest, K-nearest neighbor, Adaboost, SVM) and verified the reliability of our results by upsampling.

RESULTS

We found that in the classifications of MCIc vs. MCInc, and MCIc vs. AD, the proposed RSFS algorithm achieved the best accuracies (84.71, 89.80%) than the other algorithms. And the high-sensitivity brain regions found with the two classification groups were inconsistent. Specifically, in MCIc vs. MCInc, the high-sensitivity brain regions associated with both structural and functional features included frontal, temporal, caudate, entorhinal, parahippocampal, and calcarine fissure and surrounding cortex. While in MCIc vs. AD, the high-sensitivity brain regions associated only with functional features included frontal, temporal, thalamus, olfactory, and angular.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that our proposed method could effectively predict the conversion of MCI to AD, and the inconsistency of specific brain regions provides a novel insight for clinical AD diagnosis.

Predicting Conversion from MCI to AD Combining Multi-Modality Data and Based on Molecular Subtype

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative brain disease in the elderly. Identifying patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who are more likely to progress to AD is a key step in AD prevention. Recent studies have shown that AD is a heterogeneous disease. In this study, we propose a subtyping-based prediction strategy to predict the conversion from MCI to AD in three years according to MCI patient subtypes. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data and multi-omics data, including genotype data and gene expression profiling derived from peripheral blood samples, from 125 MCI patients were used in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)-1 dataset and from 98 MCI patients in the ADNI-GO/2 dataset. A variational Bayes approximation model based on the multiple kernel learning method was constructed to predict whether an MCI patient will progress to AD within three years. In internal fivefold cross-validation within ADNI-1, we achieved an overall AUC of 0.83 (79.20% accuracy, 81.25% sensitivity, 77.92% specificity) compared to the model without subtyping, which achieved an AUC of 0.78 (76.00% accuracy, 77.08% sensitivity, 75.32% specificity). In external validation using ADNI-1 as a training set and ADNI-GO/2 as an independent test set, we attained an AUC of 0.78 (74.49% accuracy, 74.19% sensitivity, 74.63% specificity). Identifying MCI patient subtypes with omics data would improve the accuracy of predicting the conversion from MCI to AD. In addition to evaluating statistics, obtaining the significant sMRI, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and mRNA expression data from peripheral blood of MCI patients is noninvasive and cost-effective for predicting conversion from MCI to AD.

Deep recurrent model for individualized prediction of Alzheimer's disease progression

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is known as one of the major causes of dementia and is characterized by slow progression over several years, with no treatments or available medicines. In this regard, there have been efforts to identify the risk of developing AD in its earliest time. While many of the previous works considered cross-sectional analysis, more recent studies have focused on the diagnosis and prognosis of AD with longitudinal or time series data in a way of disease progression modeling. Under the same problem settings, in this work, we propose a novel computational framework that can predict the phenotypic measurements of MRI biomarkers and trajectories of clinical status along with cognitive scores at multiple future time points. However, in handling time series data, it generally faces many unexpected missing observations. In regard to such an unfavorable situation, we define a secondary problem of estimating those missing values and tackle it in a systematic way by taking account of temporal and multivariate relations inherent in time series data. Concretely, we propose a deep recurrent network that jointly tackles the four problems of (i) missing value imputation, (ii) phenotypic measurements forecasting, (iii) trajectory estimation of a cognitive score, and (iv) clinical status prediction of a subject based on his/her longitudinal imaging biomarkers. Notably, the learnable parameters of all the modules in our predictive models are trained in an end-to-end manner by taking the morphological features and cognitive scores as input, with our circumspectly defined loss function. In our experiments over The Alzheimers Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) challenge cohort, we measured performance for various metrics and compared our method to competing methods in the literature. Exhaustive analyses and ablation studies were also conducted to better confirm the effectiveness of our method.

Using machine intelligence to uncover Alzheimer’s disease progression heterogeneity

Aim: Research suggests that Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is heterogeneous with numerous subtypes. Through a proprietary interactive ML system, several underlying biological mechanisms associated with AD pathology were uncovered. This paper is an introduction to emerging analytic efforts that can more precisely elucidate the heterogeneity of AD. Methods: A public AD data set (GSE84422) consisting of transcriptomic data of postmortem brain samples from healthy controls (n = 121) and AD (n = 380) subjects was analyzed. Data were processed by an artificial intelligence platform designed to discover potential drug repurposing candidates, followed by an interactive augmented intelligence program. Results: Using perspective analytics, six perspective classes were identified: Class I is defined by TUBB1, ASB4, and PDE5A; Class II by NRG2 and ZNF3; Class III by IGF1, ASB4, and GTSE1; Class IV is defined by cDNA FLJ39269, ITGA1, and CPM; Class V is defined by PDE5A, PSEN1, and NDUFS8; and Class VI is defined by DCAF17, cDNA FLJ75819, and SLC33A1. It is hypothesized that these classes represent biological mechanisms that may act alone or in any combination to manifest an Alzheimer’s pathology. Conclusions: Using a limited transcriptomic public database, six different classes that drive AD were uncovered, supporting the premise that AD is a heterogeneously complex disorder. The perspective classes highlighted genetic pathways associated with vasculogenesis, cellular signaling and differentiation, metabolic function, mitochondrial function, nitric oxide, and metal ion metabolism. The interplay among these genetic factors reveals a more profound underlying complexity of AD that may be responsible for the confluence of several biological factors. These results are not exhaustive; instead, they demonstrate that even within a relatively small study sample, next-generation machine intelligence can uncover multiple genetically driven subtypes. The models and the underlying hypotheses generated using novel analytic methods may translate into potential treatment pathways.

Classification and Graphical Analysis of Alzheimer's Disease and Its Prodromal Stage Using Multimodal Features From Structural, Diffusion, and Functional Neuroimaging Data and the APOE Genotype

Graphical, voxel, and region-based analysis has become a popular approach to studying neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and its prodromal stage [mild cognitive impairment (MCI)]. These methods have been used previously for classification or discrimination of AD in subjects in a prodromal stage called stable MCI (MCIs), which does not convert to AD but remains stable over a period of time, and converting MCI (MCIc), which converts to AD, but the results reported across similar studies are often inconsistent. Furthermore, the classification accuracy for MCIs vs. MCIc is limited. In this study, we propose combining different neuroimaging modalities (sMRI, FDG-PET, AV45-PET, DTI, and rs-fMRI) with the apolipoprotein-E genotype to form a multimodal system for the discrimination of AD, and to increase the classification accuracy. Initially, we used two well-known analyses to extract features from each neuroimage for the discrimination of AD: whole-brain parcelation analysis (or region-based analysis), and voxel-wise analysis (or voxel-based morphometry). We also investigated graphical analysis (nodal and group) for all six binary classification groups (AD vs. HC, MCIs vs. MCIc, AD vs. MCIc, AD vs. MCIs, HC vs. MCIc, and HC vs. MCIs). Data for a total of 129 subjects (33 AD, 30 MCIs, 31 MCIc, and 35 HCs) for each imaging modality were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) homepage. These data also include two APOE genotype data points for the subjects. Moreover, we used the 2-mm AICHA atlas with the NiftyReg registration toolbox to extract 384 brain regions from each PET (FDG and AV45) and sMRI image. For the rs-fMRI images, we used the DPARSF toolbox in MATLAB for the automatic extraction of data and the results for REHO, ALFF, and fALFF. We also used the pyClusterROI script for the automatic parcelation of each rs-fMRI image into 200 brain regions. For the DTI images, we used the FSL (Version 6.0) toolbox for the extraction of fractional anisotropy (FA) images to calculate a tract-based spatial statistic. Moreover, we used the PANDA toolbox to obtain 50 white-matter-region-parcellated FA images on the basis of the 2-mm JHU-ICBM-labeled template atlas. To integrate the different modalities and different complementary information into one form, and to optimize the classifier, we used the multiple kernel learning (MKL) framework. The obtained results indicated that our multimodal approach yields a significant improvement in accuracy over any single modality alone. The areas under the curve obtained by the proposed method were 97.78, 96.94, 95.56, 96.25, 96.67, and 96.59% for AD vs. HC, MCIs vs. MCIc, AD vs. MCIc, AD vs. MCIs, HC vs. MCIc, and HC vs. MCIs binary classification, respectively. Our proposed multimodal method improved the classification result for MCIs vs. MCIc groups compared with the unimodal classification results. Our study found that the (left/right) precentral region was present in all six binary classification groups (this region can be considered the most significant region). Furthermore, using nodal network topology, we found that FDG, AV45-PET, and rs-fMRI were the most important neuroimages, and showed many affected regions relative to other modalities. We also compared our results with recently published results.

A novel conversion prediction method of MCI to AD based on longitudinal dynamic morphological features using ADNI structural MRIs

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a pre-existing state of Alzheimer's disease (AD). An accurate prediction on the conversion from MCI to AD is of vital clinical significance for potential prevention and treatment of AD. Longitudinal studies received widespread attention for investigating the disease progression, though most studies did not sufficiently utilize the evolution information. In this paper, we proposed a cerebral similarity network with more progression information to predict the conversion from MCI to AD efficiently. First, we defined the new dynamic morphological feature to mine longitudinal information sufficiently. Second, based on the multiple dynamic morphological features the cerebral similarity network was constructed by sparse regression algorithm with optimized parameters to obtain better prediction performance. Then, leave-one-out cross-validation and support vector machine (SVM) were employed for the training and evaluation of the classifiers. The proposed methodology obtained a high accuracy of 92.31% (Sensitivity = 100%, Specificity = 82.86%) in a three-year ahead prediction of MCI to AD conversion. Experiment results suggest the effectiveness of the dynamic morphological feature, serving as a more sensitive biomarker in the prediction of MCI conversion.

Structural magnetic resonance imaging for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with mild cognitive impairment

BACKGROUND

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to Alzheimer's disease is the symptomatic predementia phase of Alzheimer's disease dementia, characterised by cognitive and functional impairment not severe enough to fulfil the criteria for dementia. In clinical samples, people with amnestic MCI are at high risk of developing Alzheimer's disease dementia, with annual rates of progression from MCI to Alzheimer's disease estimated at approximately 10% to 15% compared with the base incidence rates of Alzheimer's disease dementia of 1% to 2% per year.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diagnostic accuracy of structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia as a reference standard (delayed verification). To investigate sources of heterogeneity in accuracy, such as the use of qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements, including manual or automatic (MRI) techniques, or the length of follow-up, and age of participants. MRI was evaluated as an add-on test in addition to clinical diagnosis of MCI to improve early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI.

SEARCH METHODS

On 29 January 2019 we searched Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement's Specialised Register and the databases, MEDLINE, Embase, BIOSIS Previews, Science Citation Index, PsycINFO, and LILACS. We also searched the reference lists of all eligible studies identified by the electronic searches.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered cohort studies of any size that included prospectively recruited people of any age with a diagnosis of MCI. We included studies that compared the diagnostic test accuracy of baseline structural MRI versus the clinical follow-up diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia (delayed verification). We did not exclude studies on the basis of length of follow-up. We included studies that used either qualitative visual assessment or quantitative volumetric measurements of MRI to detect atrophy in the whole brain or in specific brain regions, such as the hippocampus, medial temporal lobe, lateral ventricles, entorhinal cortex, medial temporal gyrus, lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, and cortical grey matter.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four teams of two review authors each independently reviewed titles and abstracts of articles identified by the search strategy. Two teams of two review authors each independently assessed the selected full-text articles for eligibility, extracted data and solved disagreements by consensus. Two review authors independently assessed the quality of studies using the QUADAS-2 tool. We used the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model to fit summary ROC curves and to obtain overall measures of relative accuracy in subgroup analyses. We also used these models to obtain pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity when sufficient data sets were available.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 33 studies, published from 1999 to 2019, with 3935 participants of whom 1341 (34%) progressed to Alzheimer's disease dementia and 2594 (66%) did not. Of the participants who did not progress to Alzheimer's disease dementia, 2561 (99%) remained stable MCI and 33 (1%) progressed to other types of dementia. The median proportion of women was 53% and the mean age of participants ranged from 63 to 87 years (median 73 years). The mean length of clinical follow-up ranged from 1 to 7.6 years (median 2 years). Most studies were of poor methodological quality due to risk of bias for participant selection or the index test, or both. Most of the included studies reported data on the volume of the total hippocampus (pooled mean sensitivity 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64 to 0.80); pooled mean specificity 0.71 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.77); 22 studies, 2209 participants). This evidence was of low certainty due to risk of bias and inconsistency. Seven studies reported data on the atrophy of the medial temporal lobe (mean sensitivity 0.64 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.73); mean specificity 0.65 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.76); 1077 participants) and five studies on the volume of the lateral ventricles (mean sensitivity 0.57 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.65); mean specificity 0.64 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.70); 1077 participants). This evidence was of moderate certainty due to risk of bias. Four studies with 529 participants analysed the volume of the total entorhinal cortex and four studies with 424 participants analysed the volume of the whole brain. We did not estimate pooled sensitivity and specificity for the volume of these two regions because available data were sparse and heterogeneous. We could not statistically evaluate the volumes of the lateral temporal lobe, amygdala, medial temporal gyrus, or cortical grey matter assessed in small individual studies. We found no evidence of a difference between studies in the accuracy of the total hippocampal volume with regards to duration of follow-up or age of participants, but the manual MRI technique was superior to automatic techniques in mixed (mostly indirect) comparisons. We did not assess the relative accuracy of the volumes of different brain regions measured by MRI because only indirect comparisons were available, studies were heterogeneous, and the overall accuracy of all regions was moderate.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The volume of hippocampus or medial temporal lobe, the most studied brain regions, showed low sensitivity and specificity and did not qualify structural MRI as a stand-alone add-on test for an early diagnosis of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease in people with MCI. This is consistent with international guidelines, which recommend imaging to exclude non-degenerative or surgical causes of cognitive impairment and not to diagnose dementia due to Alzheimer's disease. In view of the low quality of most of the included studies, the findings of this review should be interpreted with caution. Future research should not focus on a single biomarker, but rather on combinations of biomarkers to improve an early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Disruption of white matter connectivity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Mild cognitive impairment is a common systemic manifestation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, its pathophysiological origins are not understood. Since, cognitive function relies on efficient communication between distributed cortical and subcortical regions, we investigated whether people with COPD have disruption in white matter connectivity.

Methods

Structural networks were constructed for 30 COPD patients (aged 54–84 years, 57% male, FEV₁ 52.5% pred.) and 23 controls (aged 51–81 years, 48% Male). Networks comprised 90 grey matter regions (nodes) interconnected by white mater fibre tracts traced using deterministic tractography (edges). Edges were weighted by the number of streamlines adjusted for a) streamline length and b) end-node volume. White matter connectivity was quantified using global and nodal graph metrics which characterised the networks connection density, connection strength, segregation, integration, nodal influence and small-worldness. Between-group differences in white matter connectivity and within-group associations with cognitive function and disease severity were tested.

Results

COPD patients’ brain networks had significantly lower global connection strength (p = 0.03) and connection density (p = 0.04). There was a trend towards COPD patients having a reduction in nodal connection density and connection strength across the majority of network nodes but this only reached significance for connection density in the right superior temporal gyrus (p = 0.02) and did not survive correction for end-node volume. There were no other significant global or nodal network differences or within-group associations with disease severity or cognitive function.

Conclusion

COPD brain networks show evidence of damage compared to controls with a reduced number and strength of connections. This loss of connectivity was not sufficient to disrupt the overall efficiency of network organisation, suggesting that it has redundant capacity that makes it resilient to damage, which may explain why cognitive dysfunction is not severe. This might also explain why no direct relationships could be found with cognitive measures. Smoking and hypertension are known to have deleterious effects on the brain. These confounding effects could not be excluded.

Classification of Early and Late Mild Cognitive Impairment Using Functional Brain Network of Resting-State fMRI

Using the Pearson correlation coefficient to constructing functional brain network has been evidenced to be an effective means to diagnose different stages of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) disease. In this study, we investigated the efficacy of a classification framework to distinguish early mild cognitive impairment (EMCI) from late mild cognitive impairment (LMCI) by using the effective features derived from functional brain network of three frequency bands (full-band: 0.01-0.08 Hz; slow-4: 0.027-0.08 Hz; slow-5: 0.01-0.027 Hz) at Rest. Graphic theory was performed to calculate and analyze the relationship between changes in network connectivity. Subsequently, three different algorithms [minimal redundancy maximal relevance (mRMR), sparse linear regression feature selection algorithm based on stationary selection (SS-LR), and Fisher Score (FS)] were applied to select the features of network attributes, respectively. Finally, we used the support vector machine (SVM) with nested cross validation to classify the samples into two categories to obtain unbiased results. Our results showed that the global efficiency, the local efficiency, and the average clustering coefficient were significantly higher in the slow-5 band for the LMCI-EMCI comparison, while the characteristic path length was significantly longer under most threshold values. The classification results showed that the features selected by the mRMR algorithm have higher classification performance than those selected by the SS-LR and FS algorithms. The classification results obtained by using mRMR algorithm in slow-5 band are the best, with 83.87% accuracy (ACC), 86.21% sensitivity (SEN), 81.21% specificity (SPE), and the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.905. The present results suggest that the method we proposed could effectively help diagnose MCI disease in clinic and predict its conversion to Alzheimer's disease at an early stage.

Prediction of Conversion From Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Based on the Brain Structural Connectome

Background: Early prediction of disease progression in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is important for early diagnosis and intervention of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Previous brain network studies have suggested topological disruptions of the brain connectome in aMCI patients. However, whether brain connectome markers at baseline can predict longitudinal conversion from aMCI to AD remains largely unknown.

Methods: In this study, 52 patients with aMCI and 26 demographically matched healthy controls from a longitudinal cohort were evaluated. During 2 years of follow-up, 26 patients with aMCI were retrospectively classified as aMCI converters and 26 patients remained stable as aMCI non-converters based on whether they were subsequently diagnosed with AD. For each participant, diffusion tensor imaging at baseline and deterministic tractography were used to map the whole-brain white matter structural connectome. Graph theoretical analysis was applied to investigate the convergent and divergent connectivity patterns of structural connectome between aMCI converters and non-converters.

Results: Disrupted topological organization of the brain structural connectome were identified in both aMCI converters and non-converters. More severe disruptions of structural connectivity in aMCI converters compared with non-converters were found, especially in the default-mode network regions and connections. Finally, a support vector machine-based classification demonstrated the good discriminative ability of structural connectivity in differentiating aMCI patients from controls with an accuracy of 98%, and in discriminating converters from non-converters with an accuracy of 81%.

Conclusion: Our study provides potential structural connectome/connectivity-based biomarkers for predicting disease progression in aMCI, which is important for the early diagnosis of AD.

microRNA diagnostic panel for Alzheimer's disease and epigenetic trade-off between neurodegeneration and cancer

microRNAs (miRNAs) have been extensively studied as potential biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Their profiles have been analyzed in blood, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and brain tissue. However, due to the high variability between the reported data, stemming from the lack of methodological standardization and the heterogeneity of AD, the most promising miRNA biomarker candidates have not been selected. Our literature review shows that out of 137 miRNAs found to be altered in AD blood, 36 have been replicated in at least one independent study, and out of 166 miRNAs reported as differential in AD CSF, 13 have been repeatedly found. Only 3 miRNAs have been consistently reported as altered in three analyzed specimens: blood, CSF and the brain (hsa-miR-146a, hsa-miR-125b, hsa-miR-135a). Nonetheless, all 36 repeatedly differential miRNAs in AD blood are promising as components of the diagnostic panel. Given their predicted functions, such miRNA panel may report multiple pathways contributing to AD pathology, enabling the design of personalized therapies. In addition, the analysis revealed that the miRNAs dysregulated in AD overlap highly with miRNAs implicated in cancer. However, the directions of the miRNA changes are usually opposite in cancer and AD, indicative of an epigenetic trade-off between the two diseases.

Multiplex Networks for Early Diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease

Analysis and quantification of brain structural changes, using Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI), are increasingly used to define novel biomarkers of brain pathologies, such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). Several studies have suggested that brain topological organization can reveal early signs of AD. Here, we propose a novel brain model which captures both intra- and inter-subject information within a multiplex network approach. This model localizes brain atrophy effects and summarizes them with a diagnostic score. On an independent test set, our multiplex-based score segregates (i) normal controls (NC) from AD patients with a 0.86±0.01 accuracy and (ii) NC from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects that will convert to AD (cMCI) with an accuracy of 0.84±0.01. The model shows that illness effects are maximally detected by parceling the brain in equal volumes of 3, 000 mm3 ("patches"), without any a priori segmentation based on anatomical features. The multiplex approach shows great sensitivity in detecting anomalous changes in the brain; the robustness of the obtained results is assessed using both voxel-based morphometry and FreeSurfer morphological features. Because of its generality this method can provide a reliable tool for clinical trials and a disease signature of many neurodegenerative pathologies.

Individual Morphological Brain Network Construction Based on Multivariate Euclidean Distances Between Brain Regions

Morphological brain network plays a key role in investigating abnormalities in neurological diseases such as mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, most of the morphological brain network construction methods only considered a single morphological feature. Each type of morphological feature has specific neurological and genetic underpinnings. A combination of morphological features has been proven to have better diagnostic performance compared with a single feature, which suggests that an individual morphological brain network based on multiple morphological features would be beneficial in disease diagnosis. Here, we proposed a novel method to construct individual morphological brain networks for two datasets by calculating the exponential function of multivariate Euclidean distance as the evaluation of similarity between two regions. The first dataset included 24 healthy subjects who were scanned twice within a 3-month period. The topological properties of these brain networks were analyzed and compared with previous studies that used different methods and modalities. Small world property was observed in all of the subjects, and the high reproducibility indicated the robustness of our method. The second dataset included 170 patients with MCI (86 stable MCI and 84 progressive MCI cases) and 169 normal controls (NC). The edge features extracted from the individual morphological brain networks were used to distinguish MCI from NC and separate MCI subgroups (progressive vs. stable) through the support vector machine in order to validate our method. The results showed that our method achieved an accuracy of 79.65% (MCI vs. NC) and 70.59% (stable MCI vs. progressive MCI) in a one-dimension situation. In a multiple-dimension situation, our method improved the classification performance with an accuracy of 80.53% (MCI vs. NC) and 77.06% (stable MCI vs. progressive MCI) compared with the method using a single feature. The results indicated that our method could effectively construct an individual morphological brain network based on multiple morphological features and could accurately discriminate MCI from NC and stable MCI from progressive MCI, and may provide a valuable tool for the investigation of individual morphological brain networks.

Conversion and time-to-conversion predictions of mild cognitive impairment using low-rank affinity pursuit denoising and matrix completion

In this paper, we aim to predict conversion and time-to-conversion of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients using multi-modal neuroimaging data and clinical data, via cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. However, such data are often heterogeneous, high-dimensional, noisy, and incomplete. We thus propose a framework that includes sparse feature selection, low-rank affinity pursuit denoising (LRAD), and low-rank matrix completion (LRMC) in this study. Specifically, we first use sparse linear regressions to remove unrelated features. Then, considering the heterogeneity of the MCI data, which can be assumed as a union of multiple subspaces, we propose to use a low rank subspace method (i.e., LRAD) to denoise the data. Finally, we employ LRMC algorithm with three data fitting terms and one inequality constraint for joint conversion and time-to-conversion predictions. Our framework aims to answer a very important but yet rarely explored question in AD study, i.e., when will the MCI convert to AD? This is different from survival analysis, which provides the probabilities of conversion at different time points that are mainly used for global analysis, while our time-to-conversion prediction is for each individual subject. Evaluations using the ADNI dataset indicate that our method outperforms conventional LRMC and other state-of-the-art methods. Our method achieves a maximal pMCI classification accuracy of 84% and time prediction correlation of 0.665.

Machine Learning-based Individual Assessment of Cortical Atrophy Pattern in Alzheimer's Disease Spectrum: Development of the Classifier and Longitudinal Evaluation

To develop a new method for measuring Alzheimer's disease (AD)-specific similarity of cortical atrophy patterns at the individual-level, we employed an individual-level machine learning algorithm. A total of 869 cognitively normal (CN) individuals and 473 patients with probable AD dementia who underwent high-resolution 3T brain MRI were included. We propose a machine learning-based method for measuring the similarity of an individual subject's cortical atrophy pattern with that of a representative AD patient cohort. In addition, we validated this similarity measure in two longitudinal cohorts consisting of 79 patients with amnestic-mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) and 27 patients with probable AD dementia. Surface-based morphometry classifier for discriminating AD from CN showed sensitivity and specificity values of 87.1% and 93.3%, respectively. In the longitudinal validation study, aMCI-converts had higher atrophy similarity at both baseline (p < 0.001) and first year visits (p < 0.001) relative to non-converters. Similarly, AD patients with faster decline had higher atrophy similarity than slower decliners at baseline (p = 0.042), first year (p = 0.028), and third year visits (p = 0.027). The AD-specific atrophy similarity measure is a novel approach for the prediction of dementia risk and for the evaluation of AD trajectories on an individual subject level.

Classification of Alzheimer's Disease, Mild Cognitive Impairment, and Cognitively Unimpaired Individuals Using Multi-feature Kernel Discriminant Dictionary Learning

Accurate classification of either patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) or patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), the prodromal stage of AD, from cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals is important for clinical diagnosis and adequate intervention. The current study focused on distinguishing AD or MCI from CU based on the multi-feature kernel supervised within-Class-similar discriminative dictionary learning algorithm (MKSCDDL), which we introduced in a previous study, demonstrating that MKSCDDL had superior performance in face recognition. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET), and florbetapir-PET data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database were all included for classification of AD vs. CU, MCI vs. CU, as well as AD vs. MCI (113 AD patients, 110 MCI patients, and 117 CU subjects). By adopting MKSCDDL, we achieved a classification accuracy of 98.18% for AD vs. CU, 78.50% for MCI vs. CU, and 74.47% for AD vs. MCI, which in each instance was superior to results obtained using several other state-of-the-art approaches (MKL, JRC, mSRC, and mSCDDL). In addition, testing time results outperformed other high quality methods. Therefore, the results suggested that the MKSCDDL procedure is a promising tool for assisting early diagnosis of diseases using neuroimaging data.

Application of machine learning classification for structural brain MRI in mood disorders: Critical review from a clinical perspective

Mood disorders are a highly prevalent group of mental disorders causing substantial socioeconomic burden. There are various methodological approaches for identifying the underlying mechanisms of the etiology, symptomatology, and therapeutics of mood disorders; however, neuroimaging studies have provided the most direct evidence for mood disorder neural substrates by visualizing the brains of living individuals. The prefrontal cortex, hippocampus, amygdala, thalamus, ventral striatum, and corpus callosum are associated with depression and bipolar disorder. Identifying the distinct and common contributions of these anatomical regions to depression and bipolar disorder have broadened and deepened our understanding of mood disorders. However, the extent to which neuroimaging research findings contribute to clinical practice in the real-world setting is unclear. As traditional or non-machine learning MRI studies have analyzed group-level differences, it is not possible to directly translate findings from research to clinical practice; the knowledge gained pertains to the disorder, but not to individuals. On the other hand, a machine learning approach makes it possible to provide individual-level classifications. For the past two decades, many studies have reported on the classification accuracy of machine learning-based neuroimaging studies from the perspective of diagnosis and treatment response. However, for the application of a machine learning-based brain MRI approach in real world clinical settings, several major issues should be considered. Secondary changes due to illness duration and medication, clinical subtypes and heterogeneity, comorbidities, and cost-effectiveness restrict the generalization of the current machine learning findings. Sophisticated classification of clinical and diagnostic subtypes is needed. Additionally, as the approach is inevitably limited by sample size, multi-site participation and data-sharing are needed in the future.

Application of Concordance Probability Estimate to Predict Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease

Subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) have a substantially increased risk of developing dementia due to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Identifying MCI subjects who have high progression risk to AD is important in clinical management. Existing risk prediction models of AD among MCI subjects generally use either the AUC or Harrell's C-statistic to evaluate predictive accuracy. AUC is aimed at binary outcome and Harrell's C-statistic depends on the unknown censoring distribution. Gönen & Heller's K-index, also known as concordance probability estimate (CPE), is another measure of overall predictive accuracy for Cox proportional hazards (PH) models, which does not depend on censoring distribution. As a comprehensive example, using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, we built a Cox PH model to predict the conversion from MCI to AD where the prognostic accuracy was evaluated using K-index.

Early identification of MCI converting to AD: a FDG PET study

PURPOSE

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a transitional pathological stage between normal ageing (NA) and Alzheimer's disease (AD). Although subjects with MCI show a decline at different rates, some individuals remain stable or even show an improvement in their cognitive level after some years. We assessed the accuracy of FDG PET in discriminating MCI patients who converted to AD from those who did not.

METHODS

FDG PET was performed in 42 NA subjects, 27 MCI patients who had not converted to AD at 5 years (nc-MCI; mean follow-up time 7.5 ± 1.5 years), and 95 MCI patients who converted to AD within 5 years (MCI-AD; mean conversion time 1.8 ± 1.1 years). Relative FDG uptake values in 26 meta-volumes of interest were submitted to ANCOVA and support vector machine analyses to evaluate regional differences and discrimination accuracy.

RESULTS

The MCI-AD group showed significantly lower FDG uptake values in the temporoparietal cortex than the other two groups. FDG uptake values in the nc-MCI group were similar to those in the NA group. Support vector machine analysis discriminated nc-MCI from MCI-AD patients with an accuracy of 89% (AUC 0.91), correctly detecting 93% of the nc-MCI patients.

CONCLUSION

In MCI patients not converting to AD within a minimum follow-up time of 5 years and MCI patients converting within 5 years, baseline FDG PET and volume-based analysis identified those who converted with an accuracy of 89%. However, further analysis is needed in patients with amnestic MCI who convert to a dementia other than AD.

Mindboggling morphometry of human brains

Mindboggle (http://mindboggle.info) is an open source brain morphometry platform that takes in preprocessed T1-weighted MRI data and outputs volume, surface, and tabular data containing label, feature, and shape information for further analysis. In this article, we document the software and demonstrate its use in studies of shape variation in healthy and diseased humans. The number of different shape measures and the size of the populations make this the largest and most detailed shape analysis of human brains ever conducted. Brain image morphometry shows great potential for providing much-needed biological markers for diagnosing, tracking, and predicting progression of mental health disorders. Very few software algorithms provide more than measures of volume and cortical thickness, while more subtle shape measures may provide more sensitive and specific biomarkers. Mindboggle computes a variety of (primarily surface-based) shapes: area, volume, thickness, curvature, depth, Laplace-Beltrami spectra, Zernike moments, etc. We evaluate Mindboggle's algorithms using the largest set of manually labeled, publicly available brain images in the world and compare them against state-of-the-art algorithms where they exist. All data, code, and results of these evaluations are publicly available.

High avidity HSV-1 antibodies correlate with absence of amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment conversion to Alzheimer's disease

Amnestic Mild Cognitive Impairment (aMCI) is an alteration in cognitive abilities that can progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD), a condition in which herpes simplex type 1 (HSV-1) infection might play a pathogenetic role. Prognostic indexes capable of predicting aMCI conversion to AD are only partially understood. The objective of the present work is to verify whether HSV-1 immune responses is involved in conversion of aMCI to AD and correlate with grey matter brain morphometry. Two homogeneous groups of individuals who did or did not convert to AD over a 24-months period were selected after retrospective analysis of a cohort of patients with a diagnosis of aMCI. The selection of subjects was based on: a) clinical follow-up; b) neurocognitive evaluation at baseline and after 24months; c) availability of serum and DNA samples at baseline. 36 aMCI individuals, 21 of whom did (aMCI-converters) and 15 of whom did not (aMCI-non-converters) convert to AD, were included in the study. HSV-1 antibody (Ab) titers, avidity index and APOE genotyping were performed in all the enrolled individuals at baseline. Brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by 1.5T scanner results at baseline were available as well in most (29/36) of these individuals. HSV-1-specific Ab titers were increased at baseline in aMCI-non-converters, and the avidity of these Ab was significantly higher in aMCI-non-converter compared to aMCI-converter (p=0.0018). Receiver operating characteristics analysis showed that HSV-1 avidity had a predictive value in distinguishing between aMCI-non-converters and aMCI-converters (p<0.0001). Notably, a positive correlation was detected as well between HSV-1 antibody titers and MRI-evaluated cortical volumes in the left hippocampus and amigdala (p_corr<0.05). In conclusion, stronger HSV-1-specific humoral responses associate with protection against AD conversion and better-preserved cortical volumes. These results reinforce the hypothesis for a role for HSV-1 in the pathogenesis of AD.