Early Recognition of High Risk of Bipolar Disorder and Psychosis: An Overview of the ZInEP "Early Recognition" Study

Mismatch negativity generation in subjects at risk for psychosis: source analysis is more sensitive than surface electrodes in risk prediction

Background

Deficits of mismatch negativity (MMN) in patients with schizophrenia have been demonstrated many times and there is growing evidence that alterations of MMN already exist in individuals at risk for psychosis. The present study examines differences in MMN between subjects fulfilling ultra-high risk (UHR) or only basic symptoms criteria and it addresses the question, if MMN source analysis can improve prediction of transition to psychosis.

Methods

The MMN to duration, frequency, and intensity deviants was recorded in 50 healthy controls and 161 individuals at risk for psychosis classified into three subgroups: only basic symptoms (n = 74), only ultra-high risk (n = 13) and persons who fulfill both risk criteria (n = 74). Based on a three-source model of MMN generation, we conducted an MMN source analysis and compared the amplitudes of surface electrodes and sources among the three groups.

Results

Significant differences in MMN generation among the four groups were revealed at surface electrodes Cz and C4 (p < 0.05) and at the frontal source (p < 0.001) for duration deviant stimuli. The 15 subjects from the risk groups who subsequently developed a manifest psychosis had a significantly lower MMN amplitude at frontal source (p = 0.019) without showing significant differences at surface electrodes. Low activity at frontal MMN source increased the risk of transition to manifest disease by the factor 3.12 in UHR subjects.

Conclusion

MMN activity differed significantly between subjects presenting only basic symptoms and subjects which additionally meet UHR criteria. The largest differences between groups as well as between individuals with and without transition were observed at the frontal source. The present results suggest that source analysis is more sensitive than surface electrodes in psychosis risk prediction by MMN.

Predicting the emergence of full-threshold bipolar I, bipolar II and psychotic disorders in young people presenting to early intervention mental health services

BACKGROUND

Predictors of new-onset bipolar disorder (BD) or psychotic disorder (PD) have been proposed on the basis of retrospective or prospective studies of 'at-risk' cohorts. Few studies have compared concurrently or longitudinally factors associated with the onset of BD or PDs in youth presenting to early intervention services. We aimed to identify clinical predictors of the onset of full-threshold (FT) BD or PD in this population.

METHOD

Multi-state Markov modelling was used to assess the relationships between baseline characteristics and the likelihood of the onset of FT BD or PD in youth (aged 12-30) presenting to mental health services.

RESULTS

Of 2330 individuals assessed longitudinally, 4.3% (n = 100) met criteria for new-onset FT BD and 2.2% (n = 51) met criteria for a new-onset FT PD. The emergence of FT BD was associated with older age, lower social and occupational functioning, mania-like experiences (MLE), suicide attempts, reduced incidence of physical illness, childhood-onset depression, and childhood-onset anxiety. The emergence of a PD was associated with older age, male sex, psychosis-like experiences (PLE), suicide attempts, stimulant use, and childhood-onset depression.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying risk factors for the onset of either BD or PDs in young people presenting to early intervention services is assisted not only by the increased focus on MLE and PLE, but also by recognising the predictive significance of poorer social function, childhood-onset anxiety and mood disorders, and suicide attempts prior to the time of entry to services. Secondary prevention may be enhanced by greater attention to those risk factors that are modifiable or shared by both illness trajectories.

White matter microstructure and the clinical risk for psychosis: A diffusion tensor imaging study of individuals with basic symptoms and at ultra-high risk

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This DTI cross-sectional study compared UHR, basic symptom & control groups (n = 112).

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The splenium of UHR individuals exhibited differences in fractional anisotropy (FA).

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Basic symptoms alone were not associated with white matter microstructure changes.

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Large differences in FA & radial diffusivity were found in converters to psychosis.

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Regional FA was inversely correlated with the general psychopathology domain.

Background

Widespread white matter abnormalities are a frequent finding in chronic schizophrenia patients. More inconsistent results have been provided by the sparser literature on at-risk states for psychosis, i.e., emerging subclinical symptoms. However, considering risk as a homogenous construct, an approach of earlier studies, may impede our understanding of neuro-progression into psychosis.

Methods

An analysis was conducted of 3-Tesla MRI diffusion and symptom data from 112 individuals (mean age, 21.97 ± 4.19) within two at-risk paradigm subtypes, only basic symptoms (n = 43) and ultra-high risk (n = 37), and controls (n = 32). Between-group comparisons (involving three study groups and further split based on the subsequent transition to schizophrenia) of four diffusion-tensor-imaging-derived scalars were performed using voxelwise tract-based spatial statistics, followed by correlational analyses with Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes responses.

Results

Relative to controls, fractional anisotropy was lower in the splenium of the corpus callosum of ultra-high-risk individuals, but only before stringent multiple-testing correction, and negatively correlated with General Symptom severity among at-risk individuals. At-risk participants who transitioned to schizophrenia within 3 years, compared to those that did not transition, had more severe WM differences in fractional anisotropy and radial diffusivity (particularly in the corpus callosum, anterior corona radiata, and motor/sensory tracts), which were even more extensive compared to healthy controls.

Conclusions

These findings align with the subclinical symptom presentation and more extensive disruptions in converters, suggestive of severity-related demyelination or axonal pathology. Fine-grained but detectable differences among ultra-high-risk subjects (i.e., with brief limited intermittent and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms) point to the splenium as a discrete site of emerging psychopathology, while basic symptoms alone were not associated with altered fractional anisotropy.

Polygenic risk scores across the extended psychosis spectrum

As early detection of symptoms in the subclinical to clinical psychosis spectrum may improve health outcomes, knowing the probabilistic susceptibility of developing a disorder could guide mitigation measures and clinical intervention. In this context, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) quantifying the additive effects of multiple common genetic variants hold the potential to predict complex diseases and index severity gradients. PRSs for schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) were computed using Bayesian regression and continuous shrinkage priors based on the latest SZ and BD genome-wide association studies (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, third release). Eight well-phenotyped groups (n = 1580; 56% males) were assessed: control (n = 305), lower (n = 117) and higher (n = 113) schizotypy (both groups of healthy individuals), at-risk for psychosis (n = 120), BD type-I (n = 359), BD type-II (n = 96), schizoaffective disorder (n = 86), and SZ groups (n = 384). PRS differences were investigated for binary traits and the quantitative Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Both BD-PRS and SZ-PRS significantly differentiated controls from at-risk and clinical groups (Nagelkerke's pseudo-R2: 1.3-7.7%), except for BD type-II for SZ-PRS. Out of 28 pairwise comparisons for SZ-PRS and BD-PRS, 9 and 12, respectively, reached the Bonferroni-corrected significance. BD-PRS differed between control and at-risk groups, but not between at-risk and BD type-I groups. There was no difference between controls and schizotypy. SZ-PRSs, but not BD-PRSs, were positively associated with transdiagnostic symptomology. Overall, PRSs support the continuum model across the psychosis spectrum at the genomic level with possible irregularities for schizotypy. The at-risk state demands heightened clinical attention and research addressing symptom course specifiers. Continued efforts are needed to refine the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of PRSs in mental healthcare.

Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression

IMPORTANCE

Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems.

RESULTS

A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.

Establishing a clinical service to prevent psychosis: What, how and when? Systematic review

The first rate-limiting step to successfully translate prevention of psychosis in to clinical practice is to establish specialised Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P) services. This study systematises the knowledge regarding CHR-P services and provides guidelines for translational implementation. We conducted a PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant (PROSPERO-CRD42020163640) systematic review of Web of Science to identify studies until 4/05/2020 reporting on CHR-P service configuration, outreach strategy and referrals, service user characteristics, interventions, and outcomes. Fifty-six studies (1998-2020) were included, encompassing 51 distinct CHR-P services across 15 countries and a catchment area of 17,252,666 people. Most services (80.4%) consisted of integrated multidisciplinary teams taking care of CHR-P and other patients. Outreach encompassed active (up to 97.6%) or passive (up to 63.4%) approaches: referrals came mostly (90%) from healthcare agencies. CHR-P individuals were more frequently males (57.2%). Most (70.6%) services accepted individuals aged 12-35 years, typically assessed with the CAARMS/SIPS (83.7%). Baseline comorbid mental conditions were reported in two-third (69.5%) of cases, and unemployment in one third (36.6%). Most services provided up to 2-years (72.4%), of clinical monitoring (100%), psychoeducation (81.1%), psychosocial support (73%), family interventions (73%), individual (67.6%) and group (18.9%) psychotherapy, physical health interventions (37.8%), antipsychotics (87.1%), antidepressants (74.2%), anxiolytics (51.6%), and mood stabilisers (38.7%). Outcomes were more frequently ascertained clinically (93.0%) and included: persistence of symptoms/comorbidities (67.4%), transition to psychosis (53.5%), and functional status (48.8%). We provide ten practical recommendations for implementation of CHR-P services. Health service knowledge summarised by the current study will facilitate translational efforts for implementation of CHR-P services worldwide.

Cortical Volume Differences in Subjects at Risk for Psychosis Are Driven by Surface Area

In subjects at risk for psychosis, the studies on gray matter volume (GMV) predominantly reported volume loss compared with healthy controls (CON). However, other important morphological measurements such as cortical surface area (CSA) and cortical thickness (CT) were not systematically compared. So far, samples mostly comprised subjects at genetic risk or at clinical risk fulfilling an ultra-high risk (UHR) criterion. No studies comparing UHR subjects with at-risk subjects showing only basic symptoms (BS) investigated the differences in CSA or CT. Therefore, we aimed to unravel the contribution of the 2 morphometrical measures constituting the cortical volume (CV) and to test whether these groups inhere different morphometric features. We conducted a surface-based morphometric analysis in 34 CON, 46 BS, and 39 UHR to examine between-group differences in CV, CSA, and CT vertex-wise across the whole cortex. Compared with BS and CON, UHR individuals presented increased CV in frontal and parietal regions, which was driven by larger CSA. These groups did not differ in CT. Yet, at-risk subjects who later developed schizophrenia showed thinning in the occipital cortex. Furthermore, BS presented increased CSA compared with CON. Our results suggest that volumetric differences in UHR subjects are driven by CSA while CV loss in converters seems to be based on cortical thinning. We attribute the larger CSA in UHR to aberrant pruning representing a vulnerability to develop psychotic symptoms reflected in different levels of vulnerability for BS and UHR, and cortical thinning to a presumably stress-related cortical decomposition.

Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Background:

The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics.

Methods:

A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23).

Results:

Altogether n = 24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65, P < .05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC = 0.52, P = .730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC = 0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC = 0.62 (sensitivity = 0.42; specificity = 0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC = 0.85; sensitivity = 0.86; specificity = 0.85; positive predictive value = 0.54; negative predictive value = 0.97).

Conclusions:

We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders.

Frontal brain activity in individuals at risk for schizophrenic psychosis and bipolar disorder during the emotional Stroop task - an fNIRS study

OBJECTIVES

The emotional Stroop effect is defined as increased reaction times to emotional stimuli compared to neutral ones. It has been often reported in the literature, on both behavioral and neurophysiological level. The goal of this study was to investigate the frontal brain activation in individuals at risk for schizophrenic psychosis and bipolar disorder during an emotional Stroop task. We expected to observe decreased activation in the at-risk individuals compared to the healthy controls.

METHODS

Individuals at high risk for psychosis (HR), at ultra-high risk for psychosis (UHR), at risk for bipolar disorder (BIP) and healthy controls (HC) performed an emotional Stroop task, which included positively, negatively and neutrally valenced words. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) was used to measure levels of oxygenated hemoglobin (O2Hb) representing brain activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal and frontotemporal cortex.

RESULTS

Results showed significantly decreased levels of O2Hb in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) in the HR and UHR groups compared to the HC, indicating lower activity. Even though the decrease was independent from the valence of the words, it was the most visible for the negative ones. Moreover, significantly lower O2Hb levels in the frontotemporal cortex (FTC) were observed in all at risk groups compared to the HC.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower activity in the FTC in groups at risk for psychosis and bipolar disorder reflects unspecific dysfunctions. Decreased activity in the DLPFC in the HR and UHR groups indicates that hypofrontality can be found already in individuals at risk for schizophrenic psychosis.

Rare copy number variants in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis: Enrichment of synaptic/brain-related functional pathways

Schizophrenia is a complex and chronic neuropsychiatric disorder, with a heritability of around 60-80%. Large (>100 kb) rare (<1%) copy number variants (CNVs) occur more frequently in schizophrenia patients compared to controls. Currently, there are no studies reporting genome-wide CNVs in clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of rare genome-wide CNVs in 84 CHR-P individuals and 124 presumably healthy controls. There were no significant differences in all rare CNV frequencies and sizes between CHR-P individuals and controls. However, brain-related CNVs and brain-related deletions were significantly more frequent in CHR-P individuals than controls. In CHR-P individuals, significant associations were found between brain-related CNV carriers and attenuated positive symptoms syndrome or cognitive disturbances (OR = 3.07, p = .0286). Brain-related CNV carriers experienced significantly higher negative symptoms (p = .0047), higher depressive symptoms (p = .0175), and higher disturbances of self and surroundings (p = .0029) than noncarriers. Furthermore, enrichment analysis of genes was performed in the regions of rare CNVs using three independent methods, which confirmed significant clustering of predefined genes involved in synaptic/brain-related functional pathways in CHR-P individuals. These results suggest that rare CNVs might affect synaptic/brain-related functional pathways in CHR-P individuals.

Triple Network Model Dynamically Revisited: Lower Salience Network State Switching in Pre-psychosis

Emerging evidence has attributed altered network coordination between the default mode, central executive, and salience networks (DMN/CEN/SAL) to disturbances seen in schizophrenia, but little is known for at-risk psychosis stages. Moreover, pinpointing impairments in specific network-to-network interactions, although essential to resolve possibly distinct harbingers of conversion to clinically diagnosed schizophrenia, remains particularly challenging. We addressed this by a dynamic approach to functional connectivity, where right anterior insula brain interactions were examined through co-activation pattern (CAP) analysis. We utilized resting-state fMRI in 19 subjects suffering from subthreshold delusions and hallucinations (UHR), 28 at-risk for psychosis with basic symptoms describing only self-experienced subclinical disturbances (BS), and 29 healthy controls (CTR) matched for age, gender, handedness, and intelligence. We extracted the most recurring CAPs, compared their relative occurrence and average dwell time to probe their temporal expression, and quantified occurrence balance to assess the putative loss of competing relationships. Our findings substantiate the pivotal role of the right anterior insula in governing CEN-to-DMN transitions, which appear dysfunctional prior to the onset of psychosis, especially when first attenuated psychotic symptoms occur. In UHR subjects, it is longer active in concert with the DMN and there is a loss of competition between a SAL/DMN state, and a state with insula/CEN activation paralleled by DMN deactivation. These features suggest that abnormal network switching disrupts one's capacity to distinguish between the internal world and external environment, which is accompanied by inflexibility and an excessive awareness to internal processes reflected by prolonged expression of the right anterior insula-default mode co-activation pattern.

Evaluation of the Combined Treatment Approach "Robin" (Standardized Manual and Smartphone App) for Adolescents at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

Introduction: The prevention of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders has led researchers to focus on early identification of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to treat the at-risk symptoms in the pre-psychotic period. Although at-risk symptoms such as attenuated hallucinations or delusions are common in adolescents and associated with a marked reduction in global functioning, the evidence base of effective interventions for adolescents at CHR state and even first-episode psychosis is limited. Thus, the present protocol describes a study design that combines therapy modules for CHR adolescents with a smartphone application supporting the young individuals between the therapy sessions. The treatment approach "Robin" is based on existing therapy strategies for adolescents with first episode of psychosis and the available recommendations for adults with at-risk symptoms. Methods: The evaluation aims firstly to compare the efficacy of Robin in 30 CHR adolescents aged 14-18 to an active control group (treatment as usual) from a previous study. Primary outcome measures will be at-risk symptomatology, comorbid diagnosis, functioning, self-efficacy, and quality of life. For the prospective intervention condition (16 weekly individual sessions + a minimum 4 family sessions), help-seeking adolescents with CHR for psychosis, aged 14-18, will be recruited over 3 years. At-risk and comorbid symptoms, functioning, self-efficacy, and quality of life are monitored at six time points (baseline, during the treatment period; immediately after intervention; and 6, 12, and 24 months later) and compared with the respective measures of the active control group. Discussion: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first controlled trial to test the efficacy of a specific early psychosis treatment in combination with a smartphone application for adolescents at CHR for developing psychosis. The results of the study are expected to add information that may substantially decrease the burden of CHR adolescents and increase their resilience. It may offer age-adapted and targeted strategies to guide clinicians in the treatment of these vulnerable individuals. Furthermore, research in the field of early intervention will be enriched by our findings. Clinical Trial Registration: www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT03829527.

Early Somatosensory Processing Over Time in Individuals at Risk to Develop Psychosis

Objective: Somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) enable the investigation of thalamocortical and early cortical processing. Previous studies reported alterations of SEPs in patients with schizophrenia as well as in individuals in the prodromal stage. Moreover, cannabis use as an environmental risk factor for the development of schizophrenia has been demonstrated to influence SEP parameters in individuals at risk to develop psychosis. The aim of this study was to explore the course of SEP changes and the impact of concomitant cannabis use in individuals at risk to develop psychosis who sought medical help. Methods: Median nerve SEPs including high-frequency oscillations (HFOs) superimposed on the primary cortical response (N20) were investigated using multichannel EEG in individuals (n = 54 at baseline) remaining at risk to develop psychosis at follow-up after 1 year (high-risk: n = 19; ultra-high-risk: n = 27) vs. subjects with conversion to psychosis (n = 8) and a healthy control group (n = 35). Longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses of SEP components as estimated by dipole source analysis were performed. Results: The longitudinal development of the N20 strength depended on cannabis use. In cannabis non-users, a greater decrease of N20 strengths over time was associated with more negative symptoms at baseline. At baseline, converters did not differ from subjects remaining at risk. At follow-up, converters showed increased low- and high-frequency activity than at-risk subjects and did not differ from controls. Conclusion: The results of this study lead to the suggestion that the deficits in early somatosensory processing in individuals at risk to develop psychosis may not represent a marker for a genetic risk for psychosis but rather reflect state-dependent factors such as negative symptoms. On the other hand, the transition to psychosis seems to represent an interstage between reduced sensory registration from the at-risk state and gating deficits in the chronic state.

Borderline Personality Pathology in an At Risk Mental State Sample

Introduction: Transient psychotic symptoms in patients with borderline personality disorder seem to be similar to those in patients with psychotic disorders. Especially in the field of early detection of psychosis, this might lead to individuals with borderline personality disorder being wrongly classified as subjects at risk for developing a manifest psychosis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of borderline symptoms in a sample of subjects at risk for psychosis as well as possible effects on the transition rate. Methods: Seventy help-seeking individuals of an early psychosis recognition center were additionally examined for borderline symptoms by the borderline symptom checklist. Results: We found a significant correlation between borderline symptomatology and positive symptoms assessed by the structured interview for prodromal symptoms. There were no associations between basic symptoms for psychosis and borderline symptoms. In addition, there was no influence of borderline symptomatology on the rate of transition into a manifest schizophrenic disease. Summary: In conclusion, borderline personality disorder should not be an exclusion criterion for the screening for psychosis or for an early intervention treatment. On the other hand, not every patient with borderline personality disorder, (especially those not suffering from hallucinations, unusual thought content, or persecutory ideas) should automatically be screened for the risk of developing a psychotic disorder.

Neuregulin 1 (NRG1) gene expression predicts functional outcomes in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Little is known about valid predictive markers for functional outcomes in an at-risk for psychosis population. In a cohort of 185 individuals (age: 13-35 years) at high risk (HR) and ultra-high risk (UHR), we assessed pan-NRG1 mRNA levels across good functional status (GFS) and poor functional status (PFS) at baseline, and good functional outcome (GFO) and poor functional outcome (PFO) at 12-month follow-up. NRG1 mRNA levels were significantly higher in individuals with PFO than individuals with GFO at 12-month follow-up. Our findings suggest that NRG1 might emerge as a predictive marker for functional outcomes in at-risk for psychosis population.

Course of psychotic symptoms, depression and global functioning in persons at clinical high risk of psychosis: Results of a longitudinal observation study over three years focusing on both converters and non-converters

The aim of this study was to test the validity of the CHR state by focusing on the course of psychosis spectrum symptoms, depression and global functioning in converters and non-converters. A total of 188 CHR-positive subjects (60.2% men) aged between 13 and 35years (mean=20.5) at study outset were assessed five times (t0-t4) over a total observation period of 36months. Conversion to manifest psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Measures of positive and negative symptoms were assessed with the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), depression with the Calgary Depression Scale (CDS), and global functioning with the Global Assessment of Functioning Scale (GAF). Converters scored higher over time on all SIPS scales apart from grandiosity (Cohen's d: 0.5-0.7; all p<0.001), higher on the CDS (d=0.43, p=0.001) and lower on the GAF (d=0.69, p<0.001) than did non-converters. Positive and negative symptoms as well as depression were most severe at study outset (t0) and then declined sharply following a linear function over the three-year observation period (t1-t4) across groups (all linear contrasts p<0.001). In conclusion, converters showed significantly more psychopathological symptoms and poorer functioning before crossing the diagnostic threshold for manifest psychosis. CHR-subjects who convert to manifest psychosis during follow-up appear to be recovering from illness rather than becoming ill. Major issues involve the poor discrimination of CHR state and psychosis as well as the dichotomous definition of both at-risk and disease states. Further examination in other CHR-samples is warranted.

Utility of risk-status for predicting psychosis and related outcomes: evaluation of a 10-year cohort of presenters to a specialised early psychosis community mental health service

Psychosis transition rates by those at clinical high risk have been highly variable and few studies have compared service presenters across the full psychosis risk spectrum with respect to medium-term outcomes. A 10-year service cohort was examined (N=1997), comprising all presentations to an early psychosis service for young people experiencing a recent psychotic episode or at increased risk ('Psychological Assistance Service', Newcastle, Australia). Baseline and longitudinal service data (median follow-up =7.3 years) were used in a series of logistic regressions to examine relationships between psychosis risk-status and subsequent illness episodes, hospital admissions, and community contacts. Six baseline groups were identified: existing (14.5%) and recent psychosis (19.8%); ultra-high risk (UHR, 9.6%); non-psychotic disorders without (35.4%, the reference group) and with psychiatric admissions (8.3%); and incomplete assessments (12.5%). High comorbidity levels were reported by the cohort (psychosocial problems, 61.1%; depression, 54.1%; substance misuse, 40.7%). UHR clients experienced similar psychosis transition rates to the reference group (17.3% vs. 14.6%; 8.9% vs. 9.1% within 2-years) and comparable rates of subsequent non-psychosis outcomes. A 25.9% conversion rate from early psychosis to schizophrenia was detected. However, among transitioning individuals, UHR clients faired relatively better, particularly with respect to changes in comorbidity and mental health contacts. Interventions tailored to current problems, recovery and psychological strengthening may be more appropriate than those based on estimated psychosis risk, which currently lacks clinical utility.

Prediction Analysis for Transition to Schizophrenia in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: The Relationship of DAO, DAOA, and NRG1 Variants with Negative Symptoms and Cognitive Deficits

Schizophrenia is characterized by positive and negative symptoms and cognitive dysfunction. The glutamate hypothesis of schizophrenia has been hypothesized to explain the negative symptoms and cognitive deficits better than the dopamine hypothesis alone. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate whether glutamatergic variants such as d-amino acid oxidase (DAO), DAO activator (DAOA)/G72, and neuregulin 1 (NRG1) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their mRNA levels predicted (i) transition to schizophrenia spectrum disorders and (ii) research domain criteria (RDoC) domains, mainly negative valence and cognitive systems. In a 3-year prospective study cohort of 185 individuals (age: 13-35 years) at high risk and ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis, we assessed DAO (rs3918347, rs4623951), DAOA (rs778293, rs3916971, rs746187), and NRG1 (rs10503929) SNPs and their mRNA expression. Furthermore, we investigated their association with RDoC domains, mainly negative valence (e.g., anxiety, hopelessness) and cognitive (e.g., perception disturbances, disorganized symptoms) systems. NRG1 rs10503929 CC + CT versus TT genotype carriers experienced significantly more disorganized symptoms. DAOA rs746187 CC versus CT + TT genotype, DAOA rs3916971 TT versus TC + CC genotype, and DAO rs3918347 GA + AA versus GG genotype carriers experienced nominally more hopelessness, visual perception disturbances, and auditory perception disturbances, respectively. The schizophrenia risk G-allele of DAO rs3918347 nominally increased risk for those UHR individuals with attenuated positive symptoms syndrome. No association between DAO, DAOA, NRG1 SNPs, and conversion to schizophrenia spectrum disorders was observed. Our findings suggest that DAO, DAOA, and NRG1 polymorphisms might influence both RDoC negative valence and cognitive systems, but not transition to schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

Neurocognition in help-seeking individuals at risk for psychosis: Prediction of outcome after 24 months

An important aim in schizophrenia research is to optimize the prediction of psychosis and to improve strategies for early intervention. The objectives of this study were to explore neurocognitive performance in individuals at risk for psychosis and to optimize predictions through a combination of neurocognitive and psychopathological variables. Information on clinical outcomes after 24 months was available from 118 subjects who had completed an extensive assessment at baseline. Subjects who had converted to psychosis were compared with subjects who had not. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine which baseline measure best predicted a conversion to psychosis. The premorbid IQ and the neurocognitive domains of processing speed, learning/memory, working memory and verbal fluency significantly discriminated between converters and non-converters. When entered into multivariate regression analyses, the combination of PANSS positive/negative symptom severity and IQ best predicted the clinical outcomes. Our results confirm previous evidence suggesting moderate premorbid cognitive deficits in individuals developing full-blown psychosis. Overall, clinical symptoms appeared to be a more sensitive predictor than cognitive performance. Nevertheless, the two might serve as complementary predictors when assessing the risk for psychosis.

Stigma and suicidal ideation among young people at risk of psychosis after one year

Suicidality is common among individuals at risk of psychosis. Emerging findings suggest that mental illness stigma contributes to suicidality. However, it is unclear whether stigma variables are associated with suicidality among young people at risk of psychosis. This longitudinal study assessed perceived public stigma and the cognitive appraisal of stigma as a stressor (stigma stress) as predictors of suicidal ideation among individuals at risk of psychosis over the period of one year. One hundred and seventy-two participants between 13 and 35 years of age were included who were at high or ultra-high risk of psychosis or at risk of bipolar disorder. At one-year follow-up, data were available from 73 completers. In multiple logistic regressions an increase of stigma stress (but not of perceived stigma) over one year was significantly associated with suicidal ideation at one-year follow-up, controlling for age, gender, symptoms, comorbid depression and suicidal ideation at baseline. Interventions to reduce public stigma and stigma stress could therefore improve suicide prevention among young people at risk of psychosis.

Alterations in the hippocampus and thalamus in individuals at high risk for psychosis

Reduction in hippocampal volume is a hallmark of schizophrenia and already present in the clinical high-risk state. Nevertheless, other subcortical structures, such as the thalamus, amygdala and pallidum can differentiate schizophrenia patients from controls. We studied the role of hippocampal and subcortical structures in clinical high-risk individuals from two cohorts. High-resolution T₁-weighted structural MRI brain scans of a total of 91 clinical high-risk individuals and 64 healthy controls were collected in two centers. The bilateral volume of the hippocampus, the thalamus, the caudate, the putamen, the pallidum, the amygdala, and the accumbens were automatically segmented using FSL-FIRST. A linear mixed-effects model and a prospective meta-analysis were applied to assess group-related volumetric differences. We report reduced hippocampal and thalamic volumes in clinical high-risk individuals compared to healthy controls. No volumetric alterations were detected for the caudate, the putamen, the pallidum, the amygdala, or the accumbens. Moreover, we found comparable medium effect sizes for group-related comparison of the thalamus in the two analytical methods. These findings underline the relevance of specific alterations in the hippocampal and subcortical volumes in the high-risk state. Further analyses may allow hippocampal and thalamic volumes to be used as biomarkers to predict psychosis.

Pathways between stigma and suicidal ideation among people at risk of psychosis

Mental illness stigma may contribute to suicidality and is associated with social isolation and low self-esteem among young people at risk of psychosis. However, it is unclear whether mental illness stigma contributes to suicidality in this population. We therefore examined the associations of self-labeling and stigma stress with suicidality among young people at risk. Self-labeling as "mentally ill", stigma stress, social isolation, self-esteem, symptoms and suicidal ideation were assessed in 172 individuals at risk of psychosis. Self-labeling and stigma stress were examined as predictors of suicidality by path analysis. Increased self-labeling as "mentally ill" was associated with suicidality, directly as well as indirectly mediated by social isolation. More stigma stress was related to social isolation which in turn was associated with low self-esteem, depression and suicidal ideation. Social isolation fully mediated the link between stigma stress and suicidal ideation. Interventions to reduce the public stigma associated with risk of psychosis as well as programs to facilitate non-stigmatizing awareness of at-risk mental state and to reduce stigma stress among young people at risk of psychosis might strengthen suicide prevention in this population.

Adolescents and adults at clinical high-risk for psychosis: age-related differences in attenuated positive symptoms syndrome prevalence and entanglement with basic symptoms

BACKGROUND

The attenuated positive symptoms syndrome (APSS) is considered an at-risk indicator for psychosis. However, the characteristics and developmental aspects of the combined or enriched risk criteria of APSS and basic symptom (BS) criteria, including self-experienced cognitive disturbances (COGDIS) remain under-researched.

METHOD

Based on the Structured Interview of Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), the prevalence of APSS in 13- to 35-year-old individuals seeking help in an early recognition program for schizophrenia and bipolar-spectrum disorders was examined. BS criteria and COGDIS were rated using the Schizophrenia Proneness Instrument for Adults/Children and Youth. Participants meeting APSS criteria were compared with participants meeting only BS criteria across multiple characteristics. Co-occurrence (APSS+/BS+, APSS+/COGDIS+) was compared across 13-17, 18-22 and 23-35 years age groups.

RESULTS

Of 175 individuals (age = 20.6 ± 5.8, female = 38.3%), 94 (53.7%) met APSS criteria. Compared to BS, APSS status was associated with suicidality, higher illness severity, lower functioning, higher SIPS positive, negative, disorganized and general symptoms scores, depression scores and younger age (18.3 ± 5.0 v. 23.2 ± 5.6 years, p < 0.0001) with age-related differences in the prevalence of APSS (ranging from 80.3% in 13- to 17-year-olds to 33.3% in 23- to 35-year-olds (odds ratio 0.21, 95% confidence interval 0.11-0.37). Within APSS+ individuals, fewer adolescents fulfilled combined risk criteria of APSS+/BS+ or APSS+/COGDIS+ compared to the older age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

APSS status was associated with greater suicidality and illness/psychophathology severity in this help-seeking cohort, emphasizing the need for clinical care. The age-related differences in the prevalence of APSS and the increasing proportion of APSS+/COGDIS+ may point to a higher proportion of non-specific/transient, rather than risk-specific attenuated positive symptoms in adolescents.

Self-labelling and stigma as predictors of attitudes towards help-seeking among people at risk of psychosis: 1-year follow-up

Mental health service use is helpful but rare among young people at risk of psychosis. The label and stigma associated with mental illness may affect attitudes towards help-seeking. We examined 67 individuals at risk of psychosis over the course of 1 year. An increase of self-labelling as "mentally ill" predicted more positive attitudes towards psychiatric medication, while increased perceived stigma and the cognitive appraisal of stigma as a stressor predicted poorer attitudes towards psychotherapy after 1 year. Early intervention could improve non-stigmatizing awareness of at-risk mental state and reduce the public stigma associated with at-risk status to facilitate help-seeking.

The Loudness Dependence of Auditory Evoked Potentials (LDAEP) in individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders and schizophrenia

OBJECTIVES

The Loudness Dependence of Auditory Evoked Potentials (LDAEP) is considered as an indicator of central serotonergic activity. Alteration of serotonergic neurotransmission was reported in bipolar disorders and schizophrenia. In line with previous reports on clinically manifest disorders, we expected a weaker LDAEP in subjects at risk for bipolar disorders and schizophrenia compared to healthy controls.

METHODS

We analyzed LDAEP of individuals at risk for developing bipolar disorders (n=27), with high-risk status (n=74) and ultra-high-risk status for schizophrenia (n=86) and healthy controls (n=47).

RESULTS

The LDAEP did not differ between subjects at risk for schizophrenia or bipolar disorders and controls. Among subjects without medication (n=122), the at-risk-bipolar group showed a trend towards a weaker LDAEP than both the high-risk and the ultra-high-risk groups for schizophrenia.

CONCLUSIONS

The LDAEP did not appear as a vulnerability marker for schizophrenia or bipolar disorders. This suggests that an altered LDAEP may not be measurable until the onset of clinically manifest disorder. However, the hypothesis that pathogenic mechanisms leading to bipolar disorders may differ from those leading to schizophrenia is supported.

SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first study investigating LDAEP in a population at risk for bipolar disorders.

Stigma as a stressor and transition to schizophrenia after one year among young people at risk of psychosis

According to stress-vulnerability models, social stressors contribute to the onset of schizophrenia. Stigma and discrimination associated with mental illness may be a stressor for young people at risk of psychosis even prior to illness onset, but quantitative longitudinal data on this issue are lacking. We examined the cognitive appraisal of stigma-related stress as predictor of transition to schizophrenia among young people at risk of psychosis. In Zürich, Switzerland, 172 participants between 13 and 35years old and with either high or ultra-high risk of psychosis or risk of bipolar disorder were included. With 71 dropouts, transition was assessed during 12months among 101 participants of whom 13 converted to schizophrenia. At baseline, the cognitive appraisal of stigma as a stressor was measured by self-report, based on the primary appraisal of stigma as harmful and the secondary appraisal of resources to cope with stigma. Positive and negative symptoms were examined using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Compared with participants who did not convert to schizophrenia, converters had significantly more positive (p<.001) and negative (p<.001) symptoms and reported higher levels of stigma-related harm (p=.003) and stress (p=.009) at baseline. More perceived harm due to stigma at baseline predicted transition to schizophrenia (odds ratio 2.34, 95%-CI 1.19-4.60) after adjusting for age, gender, symptoms and functioning. Stigma stress may increase the risk of transition to schizophrenia. Research is needed on interventions that reduce public negative attitudes towards young people at risk and that support individuals at risk to cope with stigma-related stress.