Flood in a Changing Climate: The Impact on Livelihood and How the Rural Poor Cope in Bangladesh

Changes in the economic value of ecosystem services in rapidly growing urban areas: the case of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Assessing the effects of land use patterns on ecosystem services can provide a conceptual foundation and point of reference for spatial planning strategies. The benefits ecosystems bring to individuals' lives and general well-being are referred to as ecosystem services. Land use/land cover (LULC) could influence various ecosystems and have implications for natural habitats and the quality of life. LULC has changed dramatically in Bangladesh during the past few decades, notably in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. However, no attempt has been made to examine the co-evolution of LULC variations and values of ecosystem services (ESV) in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. The study's objective is to evaluate the impact of LULC changes and different socio-demographic factors on ESV. LULC data sets were extracted from Landsat OLI and TIRS images using maximum likelihood classification. Analyses were conducted on both ESV estimations and driving forces, and the influence of LULC dynamics on the ESV was assessed. Data from 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 were used to estimate ESVs. LULC in the major metropolitan area of Dhaka has seen considerable changes between 1991 and 2021, with the most important change being the declination of water bodies, vegetation, and agricultural land. Vegetation and agricultural land proportions dropped from 22.50% and 19.29%, respectively, to 6.45% and 10.60%. Overall, there was a US$25.11M drop in ESV during 1991-2021. The study emphasizes the value of integrated land use planning for tightly regulating and controlling the growth of built-up regions. This will be essential for maintaining ecological sustainability and contributing to ecosystem resilience.

Flood vulnerability mapping and urban sprawl suitability using FR, LR, and SVM models

Floods are among the most destructive disasters because they cause immense damage to human life, property (land and buildings), and resources. They also slow down a country's economy. Due to the dynamic and complex nature of floods, it is difficult to predict the areas that are prone to flooding. In this study, an attempt was made to create a suitability map for future urban development based on flood vulnerability maps for the catchment area of Taif, Saudi Arabia. Three models were used for this purpose, including bivariate (FR), multivariate (LR), and machine learning (SVM) were used. Thirteen parameters were used as flood-contributing parameters. The inventory map was constructed using field surveys, historical data, analysis of RADAR (Sentinel-1A), and Google Earth imagery collected between 2013 and 2020. In general, 70% flood locations were randomly selected from the flood inventory map to generate the flood susceptibility model, and the remaining 30% of the flood locations were used for model validation. The flood susceptibility map was classified into five zones: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The AUC value used to predict the performance of the models showed that the accuracy reached 89.5, 92.0, and 96.2% for the models FR, LR, and SVM, respectively. Accordingly, the flood susceptibility map produced by the SVM model is accurate and was used to produce a flood vulnerability map with the help of urban and road density maps. Then slope and elevation maps were integrated with the flood vulnerability model to produce the final suitability map, which was classified into three zones: isolated zone, low suitability, and high suitability areas. The results showed that the highly suitable areas are located in the east and northeast of the Taif Basin, where the flood risk is low and very low. The results of this work will improve the land use planning of engineers and authorities and take possible measures to reduce the flood hazards in the area.

Protection Motivation Status and Factors Influencing Risk Reduction Measures among the Flood-Prone Households in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a low-lying deltaic country, experiences recurrent floods. To reduce the subsequent losses and damages, self-preparedness measures are imperative. In that context, the present study attempted to assess the flood protection motivation status of local flood-prone households through the evaluation of threat and coping capacities, as well as the identification of the factors that influence preparedness actions. Using Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), this study employed a mixed-method approach at three different flood-prone locations in Bangladesh: (1) Type 1 settlement, an area with 'hard (flood embankment)' flood risk reduction measures; (2) Type 2 settlement, without any risk reduction measure; (3) Type 3 settlement, with 'soft' measures put in place as part of NGO-led disaster risk reduction interventions. The study findings revealed a comparatively higher protection motivation status among the respondents living in the Type 3 settlement, in terms of evaluating the flood risk and capacity to take flood preparedness measures. The correlation analysis further illustrated that the factors of the perceived probability and severity of flooding, coping capacity, previous flood experience, reliance on NGO interventions, and gender status had an influence on the protection motivation of flood-prone households. Remarkably, no such influence was found for socio-economic factors such as education and income. It is hoped that the study findings can support the future decision-making process for designing preparedness interventions for communities in flood-prone areas.

A comprehensive review of heavy metal pollution in the coastal areas of Bangladesh: abundance, bioaccumulation, health implications, and challenges

The coastal zone of Bangladesh, with a population density of 1278 people per square kilometer, is under serious threat due to heavy metal pollution. To date, many studies have been conducted on the heavy metal contamination in soils, water, aquatic animals, and plants in the coastal zone of Bangladesh; however, the available information is dispersed. In this study, previous findings on the contamination levels, distributions, risks, and sources of heavy metals in sediments and organisms were summarized for the first time to present the overall status of heavy metal pollution along coastal regions. Earlier research found that the concentrations of various heavy metals (HMs), particularly Co, Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni in water, sediment, and fish in most coastal locations, were above their permissible limits. High concentrations of HMs were observed in sediments and water, like Cr of 55 mg/kg and 86.93 mg/l in the ship-breaking areas and Karnaphuli River, respectively, in coastal regions of Bangladesh. Heavy metals severely contaminated the Karnaphuli River estuary and ship-breaking area on the Sitakundu coast, where sediments were the ultimate sink of high concentrations of metals. Sedentary or bottom-dwelling organisms like gastropods and shrimp had higher levels of heavy metals than other organisms. As a result, the modified PRISMA review method was used to look at the critical research gap about heavy metal pollution in Bangladesh's coastal areas by analyzing the current research trends and bottlenecks.

A systematic PLS-SEM approach on assessment of indigenous knowledge in adapting to floods; A way forward to sustainable agriculture

The present study was conducted in one of the major agriculture areas to check farmers indigenous knowledge about the impacts of floods on their farming lives, food security, sustainable development, and risk assessment. In the current study, primary data was used to analyze the situation. A semi-structured questionnaire was distributed among farmers. We have collected a cross-sectional dataset and applied the PLS-SEM dual-stage hybrid model to test the proposed hypotheses and rank the social, economic, and technological factors according to their normalized importance. Results revealed that farmers' knowledge associated with adaption strategies, food security, risk assessment, and livelihood assets are the most significant predictors. Farmers need to have sufficient knowledge about floods, and it can help them to adopt proper measurements. A PLS-SEM dual-stage hybrid model was used to check the relationship among all variables, which showed a significant relationship among DV, IV, and control variables. PLS-SEM direct path analysis revealed that AS (b = -0.155; p 0.001), FS (b = 0.343; p 0.001), LA (b = 0.273; p 0.001), RA (b = 0.147; p 0.006), and for FKF have statistically significant values of beta, while SD (b = -0.079NS) is not significant. These results offer support to hypotheses H1 through H4 and H5 being rejected. On the other hand, age does not have any relationship with farmers' knowledge of floods. Our study results have important policy suggestions for governments and other stakeholders to consider in order to make useful policies for the ecosystem. The study will aid in the implementation of effective monitoring and public policies to promote integrated and sustainable development, as well as how to minimize the impacts of floods on farmers' lives and save the ecosystem and food.

Dynamics and Causes of Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Region of Southwest Bangladesh at Global, Regional, and Local Levels

Global greenhouse gas emissions have caused sea level rise (SLR) at a global and local level since the industrial revolution, mainly through thermal expansion and ice melting. Projections indicate that the acceleration of SLR will increase in the near future. This will affect coastal and deltaic populations worldwide, such as in Bangladesh, where almost half of the population resides in regions lower than 5 m above sea level. This study analyzed three coastal tidal gauges and five deltaic gauge stations, which showed increases in SLR at greater rates than the regional and global averages. This research also used satellite altimetry data to analyze regional and global SLR averages in the recent past and the 21st century. There is a trend towards increasing sea level based on results from three tide gauge stations: Char Changa with 7.6 mm/yr, Hiron Point at 3.1 mm/yr from 1993 to 2019, and 14.5 mm/yr at Cox’s Bazar from 1993 to 2011. Based on the linear trend from these time frames, it is projected that SLR in Char Changa will increase by 228 mm cm from 2020 to 2050, and by 608 mm by 2100, at Hiron Point by 93mm in 2050 and 248 mm by 2100, and at Cox’s Bazar by almost 435.7 mm by 2050, and more than 1162 mm by 2100. Based on an average from satellite altimeters, assuming a linear increase in SLR, the Bay of Bengal shows an increase of 0.4 mm compared to the global trend. Other river delta stations in the study area also show increasing SLR, specifically, at Kalaroa, Benarpota, Kaikhali, Tala Magura, and Elarchari. Kalaroa and Benarpota show the highest, with SLR of >40 mm/yr. It is also observed that increasing SLR trends are far higher than coastal tide gauges, indicating that physical processes in the delta region are affecting SLR, further contributing to either an increase in water volume/SLR or activating land subsidence. This is partly due to the subsidence of the delta as a result of natural and anthropomorphic effects, as well as an increase in Himalayan glacier melting due to global warming. This indicates that Bangladesh coastal areas will soon experience a far greater SLR than the rest of the Bay of Bengal or other global coastal areas.

Remote Sensing for Development of Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves at Ungauged Locations of Yangon, Myanmar

This study aims to develop the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Yangon, the economic center of Myanmar, using four satellite precipitation datasets, namely GPM IMERG, TRMM, GSMaP_NRT, and GSMaP_GC. Different probability distribution functions were used to fit the annual rainfall maximum series to determine the best-fit distribution. The estimated parameters of the best-fit distribution were used to fit the rainfall intensities of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods for generating IDF curves using the Sherman equation. The IDF curves were bias-corrected based on the daily rainfall data available only at a location in Yangon. The bias correction factors were then used to estimate IDF curves from satellite rainfall at ungauged locations of Yangon. The results showed that the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution best fit the hourly rainfall distribution of satellite data. Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) is the most suitable for constructing Yangon’s IDF curves. The bias-corrected IDF curve generated at four locations of greater Yangon indicates higher rainfall intensity at the coastal stations than the inland stations. The methodology presented in this study can be used to derive IDF curves for any location in Myanmar.

Implications of Flood Risk Reduction Interventions on Community Resilience: An Assessment of Community Perception in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, a flat densely populated country in a dynamic delta, is vulnerable to recurring flood disasters. Various types of structural and non-structural flood risk reduction interventions have been implemented over the years to safeguard the people and assets. In that context, the present study assesses the community perception about the implications of such diverse interventions on community resilience, in three reasonably proximate settlements, with varying characteristics: the Type 1 settlement has a flood protection embankment; the Type 2 settlement has no flood risk reduction intervention, and the Type 3 settlement has non-structural interventions. Through a mixed-method assessment in selected settlements, the study results reveal both positive and negative implications of these interventions on local communities. While the embankment has contributed towards enhancing infrastructural resilience in the Type 1 settlement, it still reportedly does not provide complete flood safety. On the other hand, the non-structural measures are reported to have increased community competencies in the Type 3 settlement, but the long-term sustainability of these traits is uncertain. Furthermore, the study results uncover “connectedness among local communities” as an inherent characteristic in all three locations, whereas flood risk reduction interventions are stated to be partly associated with social tension and the marginalization of certain socio-economic groups.

Indirect effects of the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage of essential maternal and newborn health services in a rural subdistrict in Bangladesh: results from a cross-sectional household survey

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents the effect of the early phase of COVID-19 on the coverage of essential maternal and newborn health (MNH) services in a rural subdistrict of Bangladesh.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional household survey with random sampling.

SETTING

Baliakandi subdistrict, Rajbari district, Bangladesh.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected from women who were on the third trimester of pregnancy during the early phase of the pandemic (111) and pre-pandemic periods (115) to measure antenatal care (ANC) service coverage. To measure birth, postnatal care (PNC) and essential newborn care (ENC), data were collected from women who had a history of delivery during the early phase of the pandemic (163) and pre-pandemic periods (166).

EXPOSURE

Early phase of the pandemic included a strict national lockdown between April and June 2020, and pre-pandemic was defined as August-October 2019.

OUTCOME OF INTEREST

Changes in the coverage of selected MNH services (ANC, birth, PNC, ENC) during the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic compared with the pre-pandemic period, estimated by two-sample proportion tests.

FINDINGS

Among women who were on the third trimester of pregnancy during the early phase of the pandemic period, 77% (95% CI: 70% to 85%) received at least one ANC from a medically trained provider (MTP) during the third trimester, compared with 83% (95% CI: 76% to 90%) during the pre-pandemic period (p=0.33). Among women who gave birth during the early phase of the pandemic period, 72% (95% CI: 66% to 79%) were attended by an MTP, compared with 63% (95% CI: 56% to 71%) during the pre-pandemic period (p=0.08). Early initiation of breast feeding was practised among 38% (95% CI: 31% to 46%) of the babies born during the early phase of the pandemic period. It was 37% (95% CI: 29% to 44%) during the pre-pandemic period (p=0.81). The coverage of ANC, birth, PNC and ENC did not differ by months of pandemic and pre-pandemic periods; only the coverage of at least one ANC from an MTP significantly differed among the women who were 7 months pregnant during the early phase of the pandemic (35%, 95% CI: 26% to 44%) and pre-pandemic (49%, 95% CI: 39% to 58%) (p=0.04).

CONCLUSION

The effect of the early phase of the pandemic including lockdown on the selected MNH service coverage was null in the study area. The nature of the lockdown, the availability and accessibility of private sector health services in that area, and the combating strategies at the rural level made it possible for the women to avail the required MNH services.

The link between climate change, food security and fertility: The case of Bangladesh

Climate change is likely to worsen the food security situation through its impact on food production, which may indirectly affect fertility behaviour. This study examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation) via the production of major crops, as well as their short- and long-term effects on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Bangladesh. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to perform path analysis and distinguish the direct influence of climate change on fertility and its indirect influence on fertility through food security. We also applied the error correction model (ECM) to analyze the time-series data on temperature and precipitation, crop production and fertility rate of Bangladesh from 1966 to 2015. The results show that maximum temperature has a direct effect and indirect negative effect–via crop production–on TFR, while crop production has a direct positive effect and indirect negative effect–via infant mortality–on TFR. In the short term, TFR responds negatively to the maximum temperature but positively in the long term. The effect of rainfall on TFR is found to be direct, positive, but mainly short-term. Although indicators of economic development play an important part in the fertility decline in Bangladesh, some climate change parameters and crop production are non-negligible factors.

Livelihood Vulnerability to Flood Hazard: Understanding from the Flood-prone Haor Ecosystem of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is a country of natural disasters and climatic hazards, which frequently affect its inhabitants' lives and livelihoods. Among the various risks and disasters, floods are the most frequent hazard that makes haor households vulnerable. Therefore, this study was undertaken to estimate livelihood vulnerability to flooding within the flood-prone haor ecosystem in Bangladesh. Primary data were collected from 100 haor households each from Kishoreganj, Netrokona, and Sunamganj districts (N = 300) by applying a multistage random sampling technique. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a pretested structured questionnaire. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of vulnerability were applied to compare vulnerabilities among the selected haor-based communities. The empirical results revealed that haor households in Sunamganj district were more vulnerable to flood hazard and natural disaster in terms of food, water, and health than households in the other two districts. Taking into account the major components of the LVI, the IPCC framework of vulnerability indicated that households in Sunamganj district were the most vulnerable due to their lowest adaptive capacity and highest sensitivity and exposure. These findings enable policymakers to formulate and implement effective strategies and programs to minimize vulnerability and enhance resilience by improving the livelihoods of the vulnerable haor households of Bangladesh, especially those in Sunamganj district.

The effects of household's climate-related displacement on delivery and postnatal care service utilization in rural Bangladesh

Exposure to extreme climate events causes population displacement and adversely affects the health of mothers and children in multiple ways. This paper investigates the effects of displacement on whether a child is delivered at a health center, as opposed to at home, and on postnatal care service utilization in Bangladesh. Using cross-sectional survey data from 599 mothers who gave birth in the three years prior to the date of interview, including 278 from households which had previously been displaced and 231 from households which had not been displaced, we use multivariate logistic regression to identify the factors associated with maternal healthcare service utilization. The results show that displaced households' mothers are only about a quarter as likely to deliver at a health center as mothers from non-displaced households. The use of health center-based delivery decreases as the numbers of past displacements increases. Higher number of previous children, lower use of antenatal care during pregnancy, lower household income, and lack of access to radio/television also significantly reduce a mother's likelihood of delivery at a health center. Displaced mothers are also substantially less likely to use postnatal care services for their neonates, especially those supplied by trained providers. Use of health facilities for delivery, use of antenatal care services, and previous number of children are other important predictors of postnatal care service utilization for neonates. In light of these findings, relocation of local health facilities with basic and emergency care provisions to areas in which the displaced have resettled, reinforcement of Family Planning services, and extension of coverage of the Maternity Allowance benefits in the displacement-prone mainland riverine areas are recommended policy responses.

Parents' healthcare-seeking behavior for their children among the climate-related displaced population of rural Bangladesh

In Bangladesh climate change has contributed to a massive displacement of people. This study examines the effects of climate-related displacement, socioeconomic status, availability of healthcare providers and disease-related attributes on the healthcare-seeking behaviors of parents for their children. Using cross-sectional survey data from the parents of 1003 children aged under 15 who were ill in the four weeks prior to the interview, collected from 600 randomly-selected households in climate displacement-susceptible areas and 600 households in non-climate-displacement-susceptible areas in Bangladesh, we use multivariate logistic regression to identify the factors associated with parental healthcare-seeking behaviors. The results show that 15.5% of the children who had been ill receive either no care or curative care at home. Of those receiving care outside the home, only 22.1% are treated by trained providers. Climate-related displaced parents are significantly less likely to seek care or to use provider-prescribed care to manage children's illnesses. Areas lacking local healthcare providers, poorer households, females, child age and mild illness are also associated with a child being significantly less likely to be treated outside the home. The children of climate-related displaced parents are around half as likely as those of non-displaced parents to be treated by a trained provider. The local availability of medical doctors, cost of reaching a healthcare center, household income, type and severity of illness, child's age, and joint parental decision-making about care providers are also important predictors of the selection of trained healthcare providers for children. Thus, climate-related displacement affects the healthcare-seeking behaviors of parents for their children. Policy aimed at improving child health should address the socioeconomic disadvantage and access to healthcare of the displaced, the training of local untrained providers about Primary Health Care service provision, and the numbers of medical doctors in the displacement-prone areas.