Growth Recovery and Phenological Responses of Juvenile Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Exposed to Spring Warming and Late Spring Frost

Predicting the influence of extreme temperatures on grain production in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains using a spatially-aware deep learning model

Grain crops are vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and extreme temperature events. Despite this, previous studies have often neglected the impact of the spatio-temporal distribution of extreme temperature events on regional grain outputs. This research focuses on the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains and aims to address this gap as well as to provide a renewed projection of climate-induced grain production variability for the rest of the century. The proposed model performs significantly superior to the benchmark multilinear grain production model. By 2100, grain production in the MLYP is projected to decrease by over 100 tons for the low-radiative-forcing/sustainable development scenario (SSP126) and the medium-radiative-forcing scenario (SSP245), and about 270 tons for the high-radiative-forcing/fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP585). Grain production may experience less decline than previously projected by studies using Representative Concentration Pathways. This difference is likely due to a decrease in coldwave frequency, which can offset the effects of more frequent heatwaves on grain production, combined with alterations in supply-side policies. Notably, the frequency of encoded heatwaves and coldwaves has a stronger impact on grain production compared to precipitation and labor indicators; higher levels of projected heatwaves frequency correspond with increased output variability over time. This study emphasizes the need for developing crop-specific mitigation/adaptation strategies against heat and cold stress amidst global warming.

Climate legacy in seed and seedling traits of European beech populations

Tree species' ability to persist within their current distribution ranges is determined by seed germination and seedling growth. Exploring variation in these traits in relation to climatic conditions helps to understand and predict tree population dynamics, and to support species management and conservation under future climate. We analyzed seeds and seedlings of 26 European beech populations from the northeastern boundary of the species range to test whether: 1) adaptation to climatic conditions is reflected in depth of dormancy and germination of seeds; 2) climatic characteristics of origin predictably affect seedling traits. The variation in seed dormancy and germination in a laboratory test, and seedling growth and morphology traits in a nursery common-garden test was examined. Populations originating from warmer and drier sites (mostly from the northern region), compared to those from the opposite end of climatic gradient, germinated later, with a lower success, and produced seedlings with shorter and tougher roots. They had deeper dormancy and poorer seed germination capacity, and are likely more vulnerable to environmental changes. The climatic conditions at the origin shape the intraspecific variation of seed germination and seedling traits, and may limit regeneration from seed and affect adaptation potential of beech to increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Local adaptation shapes functional traits and resource allocation in black spruce

Climate change is rapidly altering weather patterns, resulting in shifts in climatic zones. The survival of trees in specific locations depends on their functional traits. Local populations exhibit trait adaptations that ensure their survival and accomplishment of growth and reproduction processes during the growing season. Studying these traits offers valuable insights into species responses to present and future environmental conditions, aiding the implementation of measures to ensure forest resilience and productivity. This study investigates the variability in functional traits among five black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) provenances originating from a latitudinal gradient along the boreal forest, and planted in a common garden in Quebec, Canada. We examined differences in bud phenology, growth performance, lifetime first reproduction, and the impact of a late-frost event on tree growth and phenological adjustments. The findings revealed that trees from northern sites exhibit earlier budbreak, lower growth increments, and reach reproductive maturity earlier than those from southern sites. Late-frost damage affected growth performance, but no phenological adjustment was observed in the successive year. Local adaptation in the functional traits may lead to maladaptation of black spruce under future climate conditions or serve as a potent evolutionary force promoting rapid adaptation under changing environmental conditions.

Stimulation, Reduction and Compensation Growth, and Variable Phenological Responses to Spring and/or Summer–Autumn Warming in Corylus Taxa and Cornus sanguinea L

Understanding species-specific responses to climate change allows a better assessment of the possible impact of global warming on forest growth. We studied the responses of the shrub species Corylus avellana L., Corylus maxima Mill. and intermediate forms, together stated as the Corylus taxa, and Cornus sanguinea L. upon periodically elevated temperatures in spring and/or in summer–autumn. Experiments were performed in a common garden, with Belgian and Pyrenean provenances for Corylus avellana and Cornus sanguinea. In the Corylus taxa, a warmer spring resulted in a reduction in height and diameter growth. Remarkably, the reduced diameter increment was restored with full compensation in the following year. The height increment for Cornus sanguinea was larger upon a warmer summer–autumn, concurring with a later leaf senescence. Our results suggest that Corylus is more sensitive to spring warming, influencing growth negatively, whereas Cornus is more sensitive to summer–autumn warming, influencing height growth positively. These deviating responses can be explained, at least partly, by their diverging ecological niches, with the Corylus taxa being more shade-tolerant compared to Cornus sanguinea. The warm spring conditions advanced bud burst in all studied taxa, whereas the warm summer–autumn advanced leaf senescence but prolonged its duration in the Corylus taxa, as well as delayed this phenophase in Cornus sanguinea. Little to no after-effects of the temperature treatments were detected. Although Corylus avellana and Cornus sanguinea plants originated from similar origins, their growth and phenological responses in the common garden diverged, with Corylus being more stable and Cornus displaying more variation between the Belgian and Pyrenean provenances.

Direct Phenological Responses but Later Growth Stimulation upon Spring and Summer/Autumn Warming of Prunus spinosa L. in a Common Garden Environment

Future predictions of forest ecosystem responses are a challenge, as global temperatures will further rise in the coming decades at an unprecedented rate. The effect of elevated temperature on growth performance and phenology of three Prunus spinosa L. provenances (originating from Belgium, Spain, and Sweden) in a common garden environment was investigated. One-year-old seedlings were grown in greenhouse conditions and exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures in the spring (on average 5.6 °C difference) and in the late summer/autumn of 2018 (on average 1.9 °C difference), while they were kept hydrated, in a factorial design. In the following years, all plants experienced the same growing conditions. Bud burst, leaf senescence, height, and diameter growth were recorded. Height and radial growth were not affected in the year of the treatments (2018) but were enhanced the year after (2019), whereas phenological responses depended on the temperature treatments in the year of the treatments (2018) with little carry-over effects in the succeeding years. Spring warming enhanced more height growth in the succeeding year, whereas summer/autumn warming stimulated more radial growth. Spring warming advanced bud burst and shortened the leaf opening process whereas summer/autumn warming delayed leaf senescence and enlarged the duration of this phenophase. These results can help predict the putative shifts in species composition of future forests and woody landscape elements.