European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases

Population genetic structure of Schistosoma bovis and S. curassoni collected from cattle in Mali

Schistosomiasis is of medical and veterinary importance. Despite the critical situation of schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa, few molecular epidemiological studies have been carried out to determine the role of animals in its transmission. In Mali, it has been over three decades since the last molecular study of animal schistosomes was carried out. It is now urgent to identify circulating strains of the parasite because of potential interactions with other schistosome species, which could complicate disease control. The aim of our work was to study the composition and genetic structure of schistosome populations collected from cattle. The prevalence of schistosome was 23.9%, with the prevalences of Schistosoma bovis (Sb) and S. curassoni (Sc) estimated at 12.6% and 9.8%, respectively. No hybrid strains or S. haematobium were found. The parasites displayed distinct geographical distribution with Sb dominant in Bamako (78.8% and 98% in Central Bamako Slaughterhouse and Sabalibougou Slaughterhouses, respectively) and Sc dominant in Kayes (95.3%). Of the 476 parasites with a complete genetic profile, 60.4% were pure Sc, and were mainly from Kayes. We identified two clusters at the site level (Fst of 0.057 and 0.042 for Sb and Sc, respectively). Cluster 1 was predominantly composed of pure Sb parasites and cluster 2 was mainly composed of pure Sc parasites, from Bamako and Kayes, respectively. Our study shows that cattle schistosomiasis remains endemic in Mali with S. bovis and S. curassoni. A robust genetic structure between the different schistosome populations was identified, which included two clusters based on the geographical distribution of the parasites.

Climate change and infectious disease surveillance in Nepal: qualitative study exploring social, cultural, political and institutional factors influencing disease surveillance

BACKGROUND

To explore the impacts of contextual issues encompassing social, cultural, political and institutional elements, on the operation of public health surveillance systems in Nepal concerning the monitoring of infectious diseases in the face of a changing climate.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews (n = 16) were conducted amongst key informants from the Department of Health Services, Health Information Management System, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, World Health Organization, and experts working on infectious disease and climate change in Nepal, and data were analysed using thematic analysis technique.

RESULTS

Analysis explicates how climate change is constructed as a contingent risk for infectious diseases transmission and public health systems, and treated less seriously than other 'salient' public health risks, having implications for how resources are allocated. Further, analysis suggests a weak alliance among different stakeholders, particularly policy makers and evidence generators, resulting in the continuation of traditional practices of infectious diseases surveillance without consideration of the impacts of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

We argue that along with strengthening systemic issues (epidemiological capacity, data quality and inter-sectoral collaboration), it is necessary to build a stronger political commitment to urgently address the influence of climate change as a present and exponential risk factor in the spread of infectious disease in Nepal.

Genomic evidence of contemporary hybridization between Schistosoma species

Hybridization between different species of parasites is increasingly being recognised as a major public and veterinary health concern at the interface of infectious diseases biology, evolution, epidemiology and ultimately control. Recent research has revealed that viable hybrids and introgressed lineages between Schistosoma spp. are prevalent across Africa and beyond, including those with zoonotic potential. However, it remains unclear whether these hybrid lineages represent recent hybridization events, suggesting hybridization is ongoing, and/or whether they represent introgressed lineages derived from ancient hybridization events. In human schistosomiasis, investigation is hampered by the inaccessibility of adult-stage worms due to their intravascular location, an issue which can be circumvented by post-mortem of livestock at abattoirs for Schistosoma spp. of known zoonotic potential. To characterise the composition of naturally-occurring schistosome hybrids, we performed whole-genome sequencing of 21 natural livestock infective schistosome isolates. To facilitate this, we also assembled a de novo chromosomal-scale draft assembly of Schistosoma curassoni. Genomic analyses identified isolates of S. bovis, S. curassoni and hybrids between the two species, all of which were early generation hybrids with multiple generations found within the same host. These results show that hybridization is an ongoing process within natural populations with the potential to further challenge elimination efforts against schistosomiasis.

Approaches in scaling up schistosomiasis intervention towards transmission elimination in Africa: Leveraging from the Chinese experience and lessons

Schistosoma japonicum, differs from the African species including S. mansoni and S. haematobium, is a zoonotic parasite as it infects both human and animals including domestic ruminant animals such as cattle and animals from the wild. Considering China's success story in the elimination of schistosomiasis, the China-Africa collaboration on schistosomaisis elimination in Africa is an important cooperative health development initiative. This review examines the importance of China-Africa collaboration on schistosomiasis elimination using effective surveillance-response intervention strategy as the platform to effectively drive the elimination of schistosomiasis in Africa. Three conclusions were made after reviewing the similarity and differences in schistososmiasis control programmes between China and African continent as follows: (i) Politically, China's lessons is that leveraging on the integrated control strategies and the recognition that schistosomiasis is a public health problem which prompted the interest of government in China. It is necessary for African leaders and governments to recognize schistosomiasis as a public health challenge that must be given serious attention in terms of funding and setting up frameworks to complement control efforts. (ii) Technically, efficient monitoring and surveillance system mechanism will facilitate contextual and effective management of schistosomiasis elimination across different environment, and African programme managers should embrace the use of appropriate diagnostic tools to guide treatment strategies at different thresholds of schistosomiasis control. (iii) Strategically, effective control of snail intermediate hosts and precision mapping of snail distribution should be prioritized for successful schistosomiasis elimination in Africa.

Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach

The spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation.

Unexplored Opportunities: Use of Climate- and Weather-Driven Early Warning Systems to Reduce the Burden of Infectious Diseases

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Weather and climate influence multiple aspects of infectious disease ecology. Creating and applying early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data can identify where and when outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases could occur and can be used by decision makers to allocate resources. Whether an outbreak actually occurs depends heavily on other social, political, and institutional factors.

RECENT FINDINGS

Improving the timing and confidence of seasonal climate forecasting, coupled with knowledge of exposure-response relationships, can identify prior conditions conducive to disease outbreaks weeks to months in advance of outbreaks. This information could then be used by public health professionals to improve surveillance in the most likely areas for threats. Early warning systems are well established for drought and famine. And while weather- and climate-driven early warning systems for certain diseases, such as dengue fever and cholera, are employed in some regions, this area of research is underdeveloped. Early warning systems based on temperature, precipitation, and other environmental data provide an opportunity for early detection leading to early action and response to potential pathogen threats, thereby reducing the burden of disease when compared with passive health indicator-based surveillance systems.

Using Open Street Map Data in Environmental Exposure Assessment Studies: Eastern Massachusetts, Bern Region, and South Israel as a Case Study

There is an increase in the awareness of the importance of spatial data in epidemiology and exposure assessment (EA) studies. Most studies use governmental and ordnance surveys, which are often expensive and sparsely updated, while in most developing countries, there are often no official geo-spatial data sources. OpenStreetMap (OSM) is an open source Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) mapping project. Yet very few environmental epidemiological and EA studies have used OSM as a source for road data. Since VGI data is either noncommercial or governmental, the validity of OSM is often questioned. We investigate the robustness and validity of OSM data for use in epidemiological and EA studies. We compared OSM and Governmental Major Road Data (GRD) in three different regions: Massachusetts, USA; Bern, Switzerland; and Beer-Sheva, South Israel. The comparison was done by calculating data completeness, positional accuracy, and EA using traditional exposure methods. We found that OSM data is fairly complete and accurate in all regions. The results in all regions were robust, with Massachusetts showing the best fits (R² 0.93). Results in Bern (R² 0.78) and Beer-Sheva (R² 0.77) were only slightly lower. We conclude by suggesting that OSM data can be used reliably in environmental assessment studies.

Beyond Climate Change and Health: Integrating Broader Environmental Change and Natural Environments for Public Health Protection and Promotion in the UK

Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of “critical friends” has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health.

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses

BACKGROUND

To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known.

METHODS

Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory.

RESULTS

There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall), based on the cases where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was within 20 km, still exhibited tails somewhat longer than the corresponding exponential fits suggesting modest small scale variations in temperature and rainfall.

CONCLUSION

The findings confirm that, for the purposes of studying the relationships between meteorological variables and infectious diseases using data based on laboratory postcodes, the weather results are sufficiently similar to justify the use of laboratory postcode as a surrogate for domestic postcode. Exclusion of the small percentage of cases where there is a large distance between the residence and the laboratory could increase the precision of estimates, but there are generally strong associations between daily weather parameters at residence and laboratory.

Differentiating snail intermediate hosts of Schistosoma spp. using molecular approaches: fundamental to successful integrated control mechanism in Africa

Background

Snail intermediate hosts play active roles in the transmission of snail-borne trematode infections in Africa. A good knowledge of snail-borne diseases epidemiology particularly snail intermediate host populations would provide the necessary impetus to complementing existing control strategy.

Main body

This review highlights the importance of molecular approaches in differentiating snail hosts population structure and the need to provide adequate information on snail host populations by updating snail hosts genome database for Africa, in order to equip different stakeholders with adequate information on the ecology of snail intermediate hosts and their roles in the transmission of different diseases. Also, we identify the gaps and areas where there is need for urgent intervention to facilitate effective integrated control of schistosomiasis and other snail-borne trematode infections.

Conclusions

Prioritizing snail studies, especially snail differentiation using molecular tools will boost disease surveillance and also enhance efficient schistosomaisis control programme in Africa.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0401-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Potential Impact of Border Security Upon Prevalence of Infectious Disease

In the U.S., migration has been documented to affect the prevalence of infectious disease. As a mitigation entity, border security has been recorded by numerous scholarly works as being essential to the support of the health of the U.S. population. Consequently, the lack of current health care monitoring of the permeable U.S. border places the U.S. population at risk in the broad sectors of infectious disease and interpersonal violence. Visualizing border security in the context of public health mitigation has significant potential to protect migrant health as well as that of all populations on both sides of the border. Examples of how commonly this philosophy is held can be found in the expansive use of security-focused terms regarding public health. Using tools such as GIS to screen for disease in people before their entrance into a nation would be more efficient and ethical than treating patients once they have entered a population and increased the impact on the healthcare system. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:554-562).

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

BACKGROUND

Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios.

METHODS

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

RESULTS

The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.

CONCLUSIONS

This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.

The cross-cutting contribution of the end of neglected tropical diseases to the sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for an integrated response, the kind that has defined Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) efforts in the past decade.NTD interventions have the greatest relevance for SDG3, the health goal, where the focus on equity, and its commitment to reaching people in need of health services, wherever they may live and whatever their circumstances, is fundamentally aligned with the target of Universal Health Coverage. NTD interventions, however, also affect and are affected by many of the other development areas covered under the 2030 Agenda. Strategies such as mass drug administration or the programmatic integration of NTD and WASH activities (SDG6) are driven by effective global partnerships (SDG17). Intervention against the NTDs can also have an impact on poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2), can improve education (SDG4), work and economic growth (SDG8), thereby reducing inequalities (SDG10). The community-led distribution of donated medicines to more than 1 billion people reinforces women's empowerment (SDG5), logistics infrastructure (SDG9) and non-discrimination against disability (SDG16). Interventions to curb mosquito-borne NTDs contribute to the goals of urban sustainability (SDG11) and resilience to climate change (SDG13), while the safe use of insecticides supports the goal of sustainable ecosystems (SDG15). Although indirectly, interventions to control water- and animal-related NTDs can facilitate the goals of small-scale fishing (SDG14) and sustainable hydroelectricity and biofuels (SDG7).NTDs proliferate in less developed areas in countries across the income spectrum, areas where large numbers of people have little or no access to adequate health care, clean water, sanitation, housing, education, transport and information. This scoping review assesses how in this context, ending the epidemic of the NTDs can impact and improve our prospects of attaining the SDGs.

Hybridizations within the Genus Schistosoma: implications for evolution, epidemiology and control

Hybridization of parasites is an emerging public health concern in our changing world. Hybridization and introgression in parasites and pathogens can have major impacts on the host and the epidemiology and evolution of disease. Schistosomiasis is a Neglected Tropical Disease of profound medical and veterinary importance across many parts of the world, with the greatest human burden within sub-Saharan Africa. Here we review how early phenotypic identification and recent confirmation through molecular studies on naturally occurring infections, combined with experimental manipulations, have revealed evidence of viable hybridization and introgressions within and between human and animal schistosome species. Environmental and anthropogenic changes in selective pressures following, for instance, new dam constructions, altered agricultural practices, together with mass drug administration programmes, may all be predicted to further impact the availability of suitable definitive and intermediate hosts for schistosomes. It is therefore imperative to understand the distribution and role of such novel zoonotic hybrid schistosomes on host range, drug efficacy, and hence ultimately transmission potential, if we are to achieve and maintain sustainable control.

New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases

Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats.

Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe

Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

Development of Disease-specific, Context-specific Surveillance Models: Avian Influenza (H5N1)-Related Risks and Behaviours in African Countries

Avian influenza virus (H5N1) is a rapidly disseminating infection that affects poultry and, potentially, humans. Because the avian virus has already adapted to several mammalian species, decreasing the rate of avian-mammalian contacts is critical to diminish the chances of a total adaptation of H5N1 to humans. To prevent the pandemic such adaptation could facilitate, a biology-specific disease surveillance model is needed, which should also consider geographical and socio-cultural factors. Here, we conceptualized a surveillance model meant to capture H5N1-related biological and cultural aspects, which included food processing, trade and cooking-related practices, as well as incentives (or disincentives) for desirable behaviours. This proof of concept was tested with data collected from 378 Egyptian and Nigerian sites (local [backyard] producers/live bird markets/village abattoirs/commercial abattoirs and veterinary agencies). Findings revealed numerous opportunities for pathogens to disseminate, as well as lack of incentives to adopt preventive measures, and factors that promoted epidemic dissemination. Supporting such observations, the estimated risk for H5N1-related human mortality was higher than previously reported. The need for multidimensional disease surveillance models, which may detect risks at higher levels than models that only measure one factor or outcome, was supported. To develop efficient surveillance systems, interactions should be captured, which include but exceed biological factors. This low-cost and easily implementable model, if conducted over time, may identify focal instances where tailored policies may diminish both endemicity and the total adaptation of H5N1 to the human species.

International dispersal of dengue through air travel: importation risk for Europe

Background

The worldwide distribution of dengue is expanding, in part due to globalized traffic and trade. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for dengue viruses (DENV) and is now established in numerous regions of Europe. Viremic travellers arriving in Europe from dengue-affected areas of the world can become catalysts of local outbreaks in Europe. Local dengue transmission in Europe is extremely rare, and the last outbreak occurred in 1927–28 in Greece. However, autochthonous transmission was reported from France in September 2010, and from Croatia between August and October 2010.

Methodology

We compiled data on areas affected by dengue in 2010 from web resources and surveillance reports, and collected national dengue importation data. We developed a hierarchical regression model to quantify the relationship between the number of reported dengue cases imported into Europe and the volume of airline travellers arriving from dengue-affected areas internationally.

Principal Findings

In 2010, over 5.8 million airline travellers entered Europe from dengue-affected areas worldwide, of which 703,396 arrived at 36 airports situated in areas where Ae. albopictus has been recorded. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for imported dengue into European countries was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01–1.17) for every increase of 10,000 travellers; in August, September, and October the rate ratios were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.23–2.35), 1.46 (95%CI: 1.02–2.10), and 1.35 (95%CI: 1.01–1.81), respectively. Two Italian cities where the vector is present received over 50% of all travellers from dengue-affected areas, yet with the continuing vector expansion more cities will be implicated in the future. In fact, 38% more travellers arrived in 2013 into those parts of Europe where Ae. albopictus has recently been introduced, compared to 2010.

Conclusions

The highest risk of dengue importation in 2010 was restricted to three months and can be ranked according to arriving traveller volume from dengue-affected areas into cities where the vector is present. The presence of the vector is a necessary, but not sufficient, prerequisite for DENV onward transmission, which depends on a number of additional factors. However, our empirical model can provide spatio-temporal elements to public health interventions.

The global disease burden of dengue is staggering. Continuous expansion and vaccine failures illustrate the limitations of current dengue control efforts. Novel approaches and additional tools are required to combat and contain the disease. In Europe, dengue infections are rare and the last outbreak of dengue occurred in the late 1920s, in Greece. In 2010, however, local transmission occurred in France and Croatia. Based on 2010 data, we present a novel quantitative model of the risk of dengue importation for Europe. The 2010 model predicts the risk of dengue importation to be greatest for Milan, Rome and Barcelona in August, September and October, precisely when vector activity is the highest. With the current expansion of the vector in Europe, more cities are projected to be at risk in the future. Thus, the model based on 2010 data quantifies the likelihood and timing of importation. This approach employs global travel data to assess dengue importation risk in the EU and illustrates how quantitative models could tailor infectious disease control to certain regions and time periods.