Assessments of Drought Impacts on Vegetation in China with the Optimal Time Scales of the Climatic Drought Index

Crucial roles of the optimal time-scale of water condition on grassland biomass estimation on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The effect of the time-scale of water conditions on vegetation productivity has been widely studied by the academic community. However, the relationship between the time-scale of water conditions and the vegetation growth rhythm and the effect of this relationship on vegetation biomass estimation have rarely been discussed. Here, we analyzed the occurrence times of major phenological events on alpine grasslands using the widely distributed "site-dominant species" dataset and set a series of time-scales for accumulated precipitation and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index based on phenological information. Then, we combined large-scale aboveground/belowground biomass datasets to evaluate the role of the optimal time-scale for water conditions in aboveground/belowground biomass estimation. The results showed that (1) the optimal time-scale for water conditions with the greatest effects on aboveground biomass was on the month before the end of flowering or the onset of fruit maturity. The optimal time-scale for water condition effects on belowground biomass was earlier and longer than that for the aboveground biomass. The optimal time-scales for accumulated precipitation and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index effects on belowground biomass were at five months before the end of flowering or the beginning of fruit ripening and the three months before the first flowering, respectively. (2) The aboveground and belowground biomass were underestimated by 11 % and 9 %, respectively, when the water conditions at the optimal time-scales were ignored. (3) The interannual variability in aboveground/belowground biomass was more effectively captured by considering the optimal time-scales of water conditions, especially in water-restricted areas. Overall, this study indicated that terrestrial carbon cycle models should incorporate information on the lag-effects of the water conditions in previous periods. In the future, increasing the number of belowground biomass observations and conducting monthly belowground biomass monitoring sooner will be key to revealing the mechanisms of the belowground biomass response to climate change.

Compensatory response of ecosystem carbon-water cycling following severe drought in Southwestern China

Climate change has increased the frequency and length of droughts, but many uncertainties remain regarding the impacts of this aridification on terrestrial ecosystem function. Vegetation water use efficiency and carbon sequestration capacity are crucial determinants that both respond to and mediate the effects of drought. However, it is important to note that the consequences of drought on these processes can persist for years. A deeper exploration of these "drought legacy effects" will help improve our understanding of how climate change alter ecosystem carbon-water cycling. Here, we investigate the spatial patterns of drought legacy effects on remotely-sensed vegetation greenness (NDVI), net primary productivity (NPP) and water use efficiency (WUE) in southwestern China, a biodiversity hotspot that was impacted by an extreme drought in 2009-2010, with a particular focus on the tradeoff between WUE and NPP. Despite widespread negative drought legacy effects in NDVI (impacting 61.26 % of the study region), there was a general increase in NPP (58.68 %) and a decrease in WUE (67.53 %) in the year following drought (2011). This drought legacy effect was most evident in forests, while drought legacies in grasslands were less common. Drought legacies were also most apparent in relatively warm and humid areas. During the study period (2002 to 2018), we found that drought impacts on WUE also lagged behind changes in NPP by 1-2 years in forests, which highlights how drought legacies may manifest differently across ecosystem processes. Our study demonstrated that severe drought conditions may significantly affect the carbon sequestration capacity and water use efficiency of vegetation in southwestern China, and that forests may compensate for the detrimental effects of water stress by increasing water use and biomass growth after drought episodes.

Three-dimensional linkage between meteorological drought and vegetation drought across China

Advance knowledge of the linkage between meteorological drought and vegetation drought is relevant for the risk of droughts and the impacts on vegetation health. This study employs a 3-dimensional clustering identification method to capture drought events and their characteristics (i.e., drought severity, intensity, area, center, and trajectory) in vegetated regions of China during 1982-2018. The probability of vegetation droughts, triggered by different types of drought events, is investigated by using a K-means trajectory clustering method and copula with the vegetation health index (VHI). Moreover, the impacts of moisture deficit and high temperature caused by drought on vegetation are examined with the vegetation condition index (VCI) and temperature condition index (TCI). The analysis has identified a total of 93 drought events in 1982-2018. The drought occurrences have become more concentrated in space along the time and droughts frequently occur in spring and summer. Drought events are categorized into three types, and droughts in type 1 lead to vegetation droughts with larger area, droughts in type 2 lead to vegetation droughts with stronger intensity, droughts in type 3 pose the least threat to vegetation. Additionally, the impacts of moisture deficit and high temperature have significant seasonal difference and contradictory trends over time. For example, grassland is most sensitive to moisture deficit in summer, while forest is the most sensitive to moisture deficit in spring and winter. The complex response of vegetation to drought is resulted from the combined effects of moisture and heat stress and different regional climate and vegetation types.

The impacts of wildfires of different burn severities on vegetation structure across the western United States rangelands

Large wildfires have increased in western US rangelands over the last three decades. There is limited information on the impacts of wildfires with different severities on the vegetation in these rangelands. This study assessed the impacts of large wildfires on rangeland fractional cover including annual forbs and grasses (AFG), perennial forbs and grasses (PFG), shrubs (SHR) and trees (TREE) across the western US, and explored relationships between changes in fractional cover and prefire soil moisture conditions. The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was used to group wildfires into nine clusters based on the prefire rangeland fractional cover extracted from the Rangeland Analysis Platform. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with various lag scales from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (GRIDMET) dataset was used to represent antecedent soil moisture conditions. The results showed generally that fractional cover decreased most for AFG and PFG during the fire year, one year postfire for SHR, and two years postfire for TREE. High severity wildfires led to the greatest decrease in cover for all plant functional types, while low severity wildfires caused the least decrease in the functional type cover in most cases, though some variations existed. Furthermore, the impacts of wildfires on vegetation cover were greater in woody (SHR and TREE) types than in herbaceous (AFG and PFG) types. Significant negative correlation existed between percent changes in AFG and PFG cover and SPEI indicating higher prefire soil moisture conditions likely increased fine fuel loads and led to a larger decrease in AFG and PFG cover following wildfires. Significant positive correlation existed between percent changes in SHR and TREE cover and SPEI indicating drier prefire conditions resulted in larger decreases in SHR and TREE cover following wildfires. These findings help better understand the impacts of wildfires on rangelands and provide insights for rangeland management.

Assessing Role of Drought Indices in Anticipating Pine Decline in the Sierra Nevada, CA

Tree mortality in Sierra Nevada’s 2012–2015 drought was unexpectedly excessive: ~152 million trees died. The relative performance of five drought indices (DIs: SPEI, AI, PDSI, scPDSI, and PHDI) was evaluated in the complex, upland terrain which supports the forest and supplies 60% of Californian water use. We tested the relative performance of DIs parameterized with on-site and modeled (PRISM) meteorology using streamflow (linear correlation), and modeled forest stand NDVI and tree basal area increment (BAI) with current and lagged year DI. For BAI, additional co-variates that could modify tree response to the environment were included (crown vigor, point-in-time rate of bole growth, and tree to tree competition). On-site and modeled parameterizations of DIs were strongly correlated (0.9), but modeled parameterizations overestimated water availability. Current year DIs were well correlated (0.7–0.9) with streamflow, with physics-based DIs performing better than pedologically-based DIs. DIs were poorly correlated (0.2–0.3) to forest stand NDVI in these variable-density, pine-dominated forests. Current and prior year DIs significantly predicted BAI but accounted for little of the variation in the model. In this ecosystem where trees shift seasonally between near-surface to regolithic water, DIs were poorly suited for anticipating the observed tree decline.

Assessing Vegetation Ecosystem Resistance to Drought in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Basin, China

The frequency and intensity of droughts are increasing in many parts of the world as a result of global climate change and human activity, posing a serious threat to regional ecological security. The climate in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (MRYRB) has been warm and dry in recent years, with frequent droughts. In order to investigate the temporal trend of drought, and reveal the resistance of vegetation to drought in the MRYRB, this study used remotely-sensed vegetation index products (MODIS-NDVI and SPOT-NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results indicated that: (1) drought intensity showed a weak upward trend in the study area from 2000 to 2018, with linear growth rates of SPEI at temporal scales of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of -0.002, 0.0034, 0.0198, 0.0234, and 0.0249, respectively; (2) drought was positively correlated with vegetation in most areas (97.6%), and vegetation was most affected by drought on long-term time scales (9 and 12 months); (3) with the extension of drought, vegetation resistance index decreased, then gradually recovered after the end of the drought. Forest had the longest resistance duration of 260 days, while grassland and cultivated land had resistance durations of only 170 days. This study adds to the understanding of vegetation's ability to withstand drought, and these findings provide evidence to support drought response in the MRYRB.

Natural and anthropogenic forcings lead to contrasting vegetation response in long-term vs. short-term timeframes

Understanding vegetation response to natural and anthropogenic forcings is vital for managing watersheds as natural ecosystems. We used a novel integrated framework to separate the impacts of natural factors (e.g. drought, precipitation and temperature) from those of anthropogenic factors (e.g. human activity) on vegetation cover change at the watershed scale. We also integrated several datasets including satellite remote sensing and in-situ measurements for a twenty-year time period (2000-2019). Our results show that despite no significant trend being observed in temperature and precipitation, vegetation indices expressed an increasing trend at both the control and treated watersheds. The vegetation cover was not significantly affected by the natural factors whereas the watershed management practice (as a human activity) had significant impacts on vegetation change in the long-term. Further, the vegetation cover long-term response to watershed management practice was mainly linear. We also found that the vegetation indices values in the 2011-2019 period (as the treated period in treated watershed) were significantly higher than those in the 2000-2010 period. In the short-term, however, the drought condition and decreased precipitation (as natural factors) explained the majority of the change in vegetation cover. For example, the majority of the breakpoints occurred in 2008, and it was related to a widespread extreme drought in the area. The watershed management practice as a human activity along with extreme climatic events could explain a large part of the vegetation changes observed in the treated and control watersheds.

Dual Roles of Water Availability in Forest Vigor: A Multiperspective Analysis in China

Water availability is one of the most important resources for forest growth. However, due to its complex spatio-temporal relationship with other climatic factors (e.g., temperature and solar radiation), it paradoxically shows both positive and negative correlations (i.e., dual roles) with forest vigor for unknown reasons. In this study, a multiperspective analysis that combined the deficit of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (dNDVI) and multitimescale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was conducted for the forests in China, from which their correlation strengths and directions (positive or negative) were linked with spatio-temporal patterns of environmental temperature (T) and water balance (WB) (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). In this way, the reasons for the inconsistent roles of water were revealed. The results showed that the roles of water availability greatly depended on T, WB, and seasonality (i.e., growing or pregrowing season) for both planted and natural forests. Specifically, a negative role of water availability mainly occurred in regions of T below its specific threshold (i.e., T ≤ Tthreshold) during the pregrowing season. In contrast, a positive role was mainly observed in warm environments (T > Tthreshold) during the pregrowing season and in dry environments where WB was below its specific threshold (i.e., WB ≤ WBthreshold) during the growing season. The values of Tthreshold and WBthreshold were related to the vegetation type, with Tthreshold ranging from 1.3 to 4.7 °C and WBthreshold ranging from 129.1 to 238.8 mm/month, respectively. Our study revealed that the values of Tthreshold and WBthreshold for a specific forest were stable, and did not change with the SPEI time-scales. Our results reveal the dual roles of water availability in forest vigor and highlight the importance of environmental climate and seasonality, which jointly affect the roles of water availability in forest vigor. These should be considered when monitoring and/or predicting the impacts of drought on forests in the future.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought Events and Their Effects on Vegetation: A Case Study in Southern Tibet, China

Frequent droughts in a warming climate tend to induce the degeneration of vegetation. Quantifying the response of vegetation to variations in drought events is therefore crucial for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using the precipitation data sourced from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD), and then the drought events in southern Tibet from 1982 to 2015 were identified based on the SPI index. The results showed that the frequency, severity, and intensity of drought events in southern Tibet decreased from 1982 to 2015, and the highest frequency of drought was found between 1993 and 2000. To evaluate the impact of drought events on vegetation, the vegetation characteristic indexes were developed based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the drought characteristics. The assessment of two drought events showed that the alpine grasslands and alpine meadows had high vegetation vulnerability (AI). The assessment of multiple drought events showed that responses of vegetation to drought were spatially heterogeneous, and the total explain rate of environmental factors to the variations in AI accounted for 40%. Among the many environmental factors investigated, the AI were higher at middle altitudes (2000–3000 m) than low altitudes (<2000 m) and high altitudes (3000–4500 m). Meanwhile, the silt soil fraction in the upper soil layer (0–30 cm) had the greatest positive correlation with AI, suggesting that areas with a high silt soil fraction were more sensitive to drought. The relative contribution rates of environmental factors were predicted by a multivariate linear regression (MLR) model. The silt soil fraction was found to make the greatest relative contribution (23.3%) to the changes in AI.

Climate Change Affected Vegetation Dynamics in the Northern Xinjiang of China: Evaluation by SPEI and NDVI

Drought and vegetation dynamics in the northern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China (NXC), the centre of Asia with arid climate, were assessed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Analyses were performed through the use of Sen’s method and Spearman’s correlation to investigate variations in the NDVI and the impacts of drought on vegetation from 1998 to 2015. The severity of droughts in the NXC was assessed by the SPEI, which was revealed to increase over the last 60 years at a rate of 0.017 per decade. This indicates that an alleviating tendency of drought intensity occurred in the NXC. Specifically, the spatial pattern of drought intensity increased gradually from the north-western to south-eastern regions. The average yearly NDVI was 0.28 and increased slightly by 0.001 yr−1 (r = 0.94, p = 3.64) between 1998 and 2015. Additionally, the NDVI showed an obviously spatial heterogeneity, with greater values in the west and small values in the east. Significantly, positive correlations between SPEI and NDVI were observed, while drought exerted a five-year lag effect on vegetation.

How ecologists define drought, and why we should do better

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of "an abnormal deficiency of water." We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated "dry conditions" with "drought" and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long-term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought-monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought.

Dynamic responses of tree-ring growth to multiple dimensions of drought

Droughts, which are characterized by multiple dimensions including frequency, duration, severity, and onset timing, can impact tree stem radial growth profoundly. Different dimensions of drought influence tree stem radial growth independently or jointly, which makes the development of accurate predictions a formidable challenge. Measurement-based tree-ring data have obvious advantages for studying the drought responses of trees. Here, we explored the use of abundant tree-ring records for quantifying regional response patterns to key dimensions of drought. Specifically, we designed a series of regional-scaled "natural experiments," based on 357 tree-ring chronologies from Southwest USA and location-matched monthly water balance anomalies, to reveal how tree-ring responds to each dimension of drought. Our results showed that tree-ring was affected significantly more by the water balance condition in the current hydrological year than that in the prior hydrological year. Within the current hydrological year, increased drought frequency (number of dry months) and duration (maximum number of consecutive dry months) resulted in "cumulative effects" which amplified the impacts of drought on trees and reduced the drought resistance of trees. Drought events that occurred in the pregrowing seasons strongly affected subsequent tree stem radial growth. Both the onset timing and severity of drought increased "legacy effects" on tree stem radial growth, which reduced the drought resilience of trees. These results indicated that the drought impact on trees is a dynamic process: even when the total water deficits are the same, differences among the drought processes could lead to considerably different responses from trees. This study thus provides a conceptual framework and probabilistic patterns of tree-ring growth response to multiple dimensions of drought regimes, which in turn may have a wide range of implications for predictions, uncertainty assessment, and forest management.

The impact of drought on vegetation conditions within the Damqu River Basin, Yangtze River Source Region, China

Drought and vegetation conditions within the Damqu River Basin, part of the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR), are assessed here using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the leaf area index (LAI). We utilized Sen’s method, least squares regression method, linear regression and Pearson’s correlation analysis to study variations in drought and vegetation indices and the drought effect on vegetation between 1988 and 2015. Results reveal that droughts occurred at a 25% frequency over this period; SPI and SPEI analyses show that 1994, 1999, 2005, and 2010 were change points and that the basin was characterized by varying drought and humidity trends. Subsequent to 2010, both SPI and SPEI decreased within the basin, while 1995, 2000, 2004, and 2010 were change points for NDVI and LAI while the watershed exhibited variable trends in vegetation reduction and increase. The NDVI-annual values of 63.36% regions and the LAI-summer values of 68.39% areas within the basin were decreased during 1988–2015 and 2000–2015, respectively. Subsequent to 2010, both NDVI and LAI decreased within the basin and significant positive correlations at inter-annual and inter-summer time scales were seen in both drought and vegetation indices; drought has exerted a lag effect on vegetation as shown by significant positive correlations between annual SPI/SPEI values and following year NDVI/LAI values.