Assessing Heat-Related Mortality Risks among Rural Populations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Evidence

A scoping review of the impact of extreme weather events on health outcomes and healthcare utilization in rural and remote areas

BACKGROUND

Extreme weather events affect health by directly and indirectly increasing illness burdens and changing healthcare usage patterns. These effects can be especially severe in rural and remote areas, exacerbating existing health disparities, and necessitating urgent mitigation or adaptation strategies. Despite increased research on health and climate change, studies focusing on rural and remote populations remain limited. This study aimed to review the relationships among extreme weather events, healthcare utilization, and health outcomes in rural and remote populations, identify research gaps, and inform policy development for adaptation and disaster management in these settings.

METHODS

A systematic scoping review was registered and conducted following the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. The search databases included PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, ProQuest, and the WHO IRIS. The included studies were primary research, focused on rural or remote areas, and investigated the effects of extreme weather events on either health outcomes or healthcare utilization. There were no methodological, date or language restrictions. We excluded protocols, reviews, letters, editorials, and commentaries. Two reviewers screened and extracted all data, other reviewers were invited to resolve conflicts. Findings are presented numerically or narratively as appropriate.

RESULTS

The review included 135 studies from 31 countries, with most from high-income countries. Extreme weather events exacerbate communicable and noncommunicable diseases, including cardiorespiratory, mental health, and malnutrition, and lead to secondary impacts such as mass migration and increased poverty. Healthcare utilization patterns changed during these events, with increased demand for emergency services but reduced access to routine care due to disrupted services and financial constraints.

CONCLUSIONS

The results highlighted the essential role of community and social support in rural and remote areas during extreme weather events and the importance of primary healthcare services in disaster management. Future research should focus on developing and implementing effective mitigation and adaptation programs tailored to the unique challenges faced by these populations.

Prediction of heatwave related mortality magnitude, duration and frequency with climate variability and climate change information

Given the link between climatic factors on one hand, such as climate change and low frequency climate oscillation indices, and the occurrence and magnitude of heat waves on the other hand, and given the impact of heat waves on mortality, these climatic factors could provide some predictive skill for mortality. We propose a new model, the Mortality-Duration-Frequency (MDF) relationship, to relate the intensity of an extreme summer mortality event to its duration and frequency. The MDF model takes into account the non-stationarities observed in the mortality data through covariates by integrating information concerning climate change through the time trend and climate variability through climate oscillation indices. The proposed approach was applied to all-cause mortality data from 1983 to 2018 in the metropolitan regions of Quebec and Montreal in eastern Canada. In all cases, models introducing covariates lead to a substantial improvement in the goodness-of-fit in comparison to stationary models without covariates. Climate change signal is more important than climate variability signal in explaining maximum summer mortality. However, climate indices successfully explain a part of the interannual variability in the maximum summer mortality. Overall, the best models are obtained with the time trend and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) used as covariates. No country has yet integrated teleconnection information in their heat-health watch and warning systems or adaptation plans. MDF modeling has the potential to be useful to public health managers for the planning and management of health services. It allows predicting future MDF curves for adaptive management using the values of the covariates.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-024-02813-0.

Heat vulnerability: health impacts of heat on older people in urban and rural areas in Europe

Exposure to extreme heat is associated with both increased morbidity and mortality, especially in older people. Health burdens associated with heat include heat stroke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, ischemic heart diseases, heart failure and arrhythmia, pulmonary diseases but also injuries, problems with activities of daily living, and mental disorders. In Europe, there are remarkable spatial differences in heat exposure between urban and less populated areas. In Austria, for example, there is a significant gradual association between population density and the number of heat days, where the gradient of urbanization also follows the gradient of sea level. The European population is continuously ageing, especially in rural areas. Older adults are especially vulnerable to negative health consequences resulting from heat exposure, due to a lack of physiological, social, cognitive, and behavioral resources. Older people living in urban areas are particularly at risk, due to the urban heat island effect, the heat-promoting interplay between conditions typically found in cities, such as a lack of vegetation combined with a high proportion of built-up areas; however, older people living in rural regions often have less infrastructure to cope with extreme heat, such as fewer cooling centers and emergency services. Additionally, older adults still engaged in agricultural or forestry activities may be exposed to high temperatures without adequate protection or hydration. More research is required to examine factors responsible for heat vulnerability in older adults and the interactions and possibilities for increasing resilience in older urban and rural populations to the health consequences of heat.

Analyzing effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality relationship in the Paris region to identify social and environmental levers for more effective adaptation to heat

Adaptation to heat is a major challenge for the Paris region (France). Based on fine-scale data for the 1,287 municipalities of the region over 2000-2017, we analyzed (time-serie design) the temperature-mortality relationship by territories (urban, suburban, rural), age (15-64 and ≥ 65) and sex, and explored how it was modified by vegetation and socio-economic indicators. Heat was associated with an increased mortality risk for all territories, age groups, sex, and mortality causes. Women aged 65 and over residing in the most deprived municipalities had a relative risk (RR) of deaths at 29.4 °C (compared to 16.6 °C) of 4.2 [3.8:4.5], while the RR was 3.4 [3.2:3.7] for women living in less deprived municipalities. Actions to reduce such sex and social inequities should be central in heat adaptation policy.

Management of Heat-Related Illness and Injury in the ICU: A Concise Definitive Review

OBJECTIVES

The increasing frequency of extreme heat events has led to a growing number of heat-related injuries and illnesses in ICUs. The objective of this review was to summarize and critically appraise evidence for the management of heat-related illnesses and injuries for critical care multiprofessionals.

DATA SOURCES

Ovid Medline, Embase, Cochrane Clinical Trials Register, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched from inception through August 2023 for studies reporting on heat-related injury and illness in the setting of the ICU.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language systematic reviews, narrative reviews, meta-analyses, randomized clinical trials, and observational studies were prioritized for review. Bibliographies from retrieved articles were scanned for articles that may have been missed.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data regarding study methodology, patient population, management strategy, and clinical outcomes were qualitatively assessed.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Several risk factors and prognostic indicators for patients diagnosed with heat-related illness and injury have been identified and reported in the literature. Effective management of these patients has included various cooling methods and fluid replenishment. Drug therapy is not effective. Multiple organ dysfunction, neurologic injury, and disseminated intravascular coagulation are common complications of heat stroke and must be managed accordingly. Burn injury from contact with hot surfaces or pavement can occur, requiring careful evaluation and possible excision and grafting in severe cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of heat-related illness and injury is increasing, and rapid initiation of appropriate therapies is necessary to optimize outcomes. Additional research is needed to identify effective methods and strategies to achieve rapid cooling, the role of immunomodulators and anticoagulant medications, the use of biomarkers to identify organ failure, and the role of artificial intelligence and precision medicine.

The effects of summer ambient temperature on total mortality in Serbia

In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (Ta) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June-August) period of 2001-2015. In order to quantify the Ta-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between Ta and CDR in four areas. The effect of Ta on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in Ta at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to Ta (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991-1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of Ta mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.

Assessing heat effects on respiratory mortality and location characteristics as modifiers of heat effects at a small area scale in Central-Northern Europe

Background

Heat effects on respiratory mortality are known, mostly from time-series studies of city-wide data. A limited number of studies have been conducted at the national level or covering non-urban areas. Effect modification by area-level factors has not been extensively investigated. Our study assessed the heat effects on respiratory mortality at a small administrative area level in Norway, Germany, and England and Wales, in the warm period (May-September) within 1996-2018. Also, we examined possible effect modification by several area-level characteristics in the framework of the EU-Horizon2020 EXHAUSTION project.

Methods

Daily respiratory mortality counts and modeled air temperature data were collected for Norway, Germany, and England and Wales at a small administrative area level. The temperature-mortality association was assessed by small area-specific Poisson regression allowing for overdispersion, using distributed lag non-linear models. Estimates were pooled at the national level and overall using a random-effect meta-analysis. Age- and sex-specific models were also applied. A multilevel random-effects model was applied to investigate the modification of the heat effects by area-level factors.

Results

A rise in temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile was associated with a 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19%, 34%) increase in respiratory mortality, with higher effects for females. Increased population density and PM2.5 concentrations were associated with stronger heat effects on mortality.

Conclusions

Our study strengthens the evidence of adverse heat effects on respiratory mortality in Northern Europe by identifying vulnerable subgroups and subregions. This may contribute to the development of targeted policies for adaptation to climate change.

Exploring vulnerability to heat and cold across urban and rural populations in Switzerland

Heat- and cold-related mortality risks are highly variable across different geographies, suggesting a differential distribution of vulnerability factors between and within countries, which could partly be driven by urban-to-rural disparities. Identifying these drivers of risk is crucial to characterize local vulnerability and design tailored public health interventions to improve adaptation of populations to climate change. We aimed to assess how heat- and cold-mortality risks change across urban, peri-urban and rural areas in Switzerland and to identify and compare the factors associated with increased vulnerability within and between different area typologies. We estimated the heat- and cold-related mortality association using the case time-series design and distributed lag non-linear models over daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality series between 1990-2017 in each municipality in Switzerland. Then, through multivariate meta-regression, we derived pooled heat and cold-mortality associations by typology (i.e. urban/rural/peri-urban) and assessed potential vulnerability factors among a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic, topographic, climatic, land use and other environmental data. Urban clusters reported larger pooled heat-related mortality risk (at 99th percentile, vs. temperature of minimum mortality (MMT)) (relative risk=1.17(95%CI:1.10;1.24, vs peri-urban 1.03(1.00;1.06), and rural 1.03 (0.99;1.08)), but similar cold-mortality risk (at 1st percentile, vs. MMT) (1.35(1.28;1.43), vs rural 1.28(1.14;1.44) and peri-urban 1.39 (1.27-1.53)) clusters. We found different sets of vulnerability factors explaining the differential risk patterns across typologies. In urban clusters, mainly environmental factors (i.e. PM2.5) drove differences in heat-mortality association, while for peri-urban/rural clusters socio-economic variables were also important. For cold, socio-economic variables drove changes in vulnerability across all typologies, while environmental factors and ageing were other important drivers of larger vulnerability in peri-urban/rural clusters, with heterogeneity in the direction of the association. Our findings suggest that urban populations in Switzerland may be more vulnerable to heat, compared to rural locations, and different sets of vulnerability factors may drive these associations in each typology. Thus, future public health adaptation strategies should consider local and more tailored interventions rather than a one-size fits all approach. size fits all approach.

The Association between Apparent Temperature and Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Disease in Limpopo Province, South Africa

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have a high disease burden both globally and in South Africa. They have also been found to be temperature-sensitive globally. The association between temperature and CVD morbidity has previously been demonstrated, but little is known about it in South Africa. It is important to understand how changes in temperature in South Africa will affect CVD morbidity, especially in rural regions, to inform public health interventions and adaptation strategies. This study aimed to determine the short-term effect of apparent temperature (T_app) on CVD hospital admissions in Mopani District, Limpopo province, South Africa. A total of 3124 CVD hospital admissions records were obtained from two hospitals from 1 June 2009 to 31 December 2016. Daily T_app was calculated using nearby weather station measurements. The association was modelled using a distributed lag non-linear model with a negative binomial regression over a 21-day lag period. The fraction of morbidity attributable to non-optimal T_app, i.e., cold (6-25 °C) and warm (27-32 °C) T_app was reported. We found an increase in the proportion of admissions due to CVDs for warm and cold T_app cumulatively over 21 days. Increasing CVD admissions due to warm T_app appeared immediately and lasted for two to four days, whereas the lag-structure for the cold effect was inconsistent. A proportion of 8.5% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.1%, 13.7%) and 1.1% (95% CI: -1.4%, 3.5%) of the total CVD admissions was attributable to cold and warm temperatures, respectively. Warm and cold T_app may increase CVD admissions, suggesting that the healthcare system and community need to be prepared in the context of global temperature changes.

Systematic review of the impact of heatwaves on health service demand in Australia

OBJECTIVES

Heatwaves have been linked to increased levels of health service demand in Australia. This systematic literature review aimed to explore health service demand during Australian heatwaves for hospital admissions, emergency department presentations, ambulance call-outs, and risk of mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

A systematic review to explore peer-reviewed heatwave literature published from 2000 to 2020.

DATA SOURCES

Articles were reviewed from six databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, PsychINFO, ProQuest, Science Direct). Search terms included: heatwave, extreme heat, ambulance, emergency department, and hospital. Studies were included if they explored heat for a period of two or more consecutive days. Studies were excluded if they did not define a threshold for extreme heat or if they explored data only from workers compensation claims and major events.

DATA SYNTHESIS

This review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (# CRD42021227395 ). Forty-five papers were included in the final review following full-text screening. Following a quality assessment using the GRADE approach, data were extracted to a spreadsheet and compared. Significant increases in mortality, as well as hospital, emergency, and ambulance demand, were found across Australia during heatwave periods. Admissions for cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, mental and behavioural conditions exhibited increases during heatwaves. The most vulnerable groups during heatwaves were children (< 18 years) and the elderly (60+).

CONCLUSIONS

Heatwaves in Australia will continue to increase in duration and frequency due to the effects of climate change. Health planning is essential at the community, state, and federal levels to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves on health and health service delivery especially for vulnerable populations. However, understanding the true impact of heatwaves on health service demand is complicated by differing definitions and methodology in the literature. The Excess Heat Factor (EHF) is the preferred approach to defining heatwaves given its consideration of local climate variability and acclimatisation. Future research should explore evidence-based and spatially relevant heatwave prevention programs. An enhanced understanding of heatwave health impacts including service demand will inform the development of such programs which are necessary to promote population and health system resilience.

Supporting Design to Develop Rural Revitalization through Investigating Village Microclimate Environments: A Case Study of Typical Villages in Northwest China

China has the largest number of villages in the world, and research on rural microclimate will contribute to global climate knowledge. A three-by-three grid method was developed to explore village microclimates through field measurement and ENVI-met simulation. A regression model was used to explore the mechanistic relationship between microclimate and spatial morphology, and predicted mean vote (PMV) was selected to evaluate outdoor thermal comfort. The results showed that ENVI-met was able to evaluate village microclimate, as Pearson’s correlation coefficient was greater than 0.8 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was from 2.16% to 3.79%. Moreover, the air temperature of west–east road was slightly higher than that of south–north, especially in the morning. The height-to-width ratio (H/W) was the most significant factor to affect air temperature compared to percentage of building coverage (PBC) and wind speed. In addition, H/W and air temperature had a relatively strong negative correlation when H/W was between 0.52 and 0.93. PMV indicated that the downwind edge area of prevailing wind in villages was relatively comfortable. This study provides data support and a reference for optimizing village land use, mediating the living environment, and promoting rural revitalization.

Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological literature on the health risks associated with non-optimal temperature has mostly reported average estimates across large areas or specific population groups. However, the heterogeneous distribution of drivers of vulnerability can result in local differences in health risks associated with heat and cold. We aimed to analyse the association between ambient air temperature and all-cause mortality across England and Wales and characterise small scale patterns in temperature-related mortality risks and impacts.

METHODS

We performed a country-wide small-area analysis using data on all-cause mortality and air temperature for 34 753 lower super output areas (LSOAs) within 348 local authority districts (LADs) across England and Wales between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2019. We first performed a case time series analysis of LSOA-specific and age-specific mortality series matched with 1 × 1 km gridded temperature data using distributed lag non-linear models, and then a repeated-measure multivariate meta-regression to pool LAD-specific estimates using area-level climatological, socioeconomic, and topographical predictors.

FINDINGS

The final analysis included 10 716 879 deaths from all causes. The small-area assessment estimated that each year in England and Wales, there was on average 791 excess deaths (empirical 95% CI 611-957) attributable to heat and 60 573 (55 796-65 145) attributable to cold, corresponding to standardised excess mortality rates of 1·57 deaths (empirical 95% CI 1·21-1·90) per 100 000 person-years for heat and 122·34 deaths (112·90-131·52) per 100 000 person-years for cold. The risks increased with age and were highly heterogeneous geographically, with the minimum mortality temperature ranging from 14·9°C to 22·6°C. Heat-related mortality was higher in urban areas, whereas cold-related mortality showed a more nuanced geographical pattern and increased risk in areas with greater socioeconomic deprivation.

INTERPRETATION

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of excess mortality related to non-optimal outdoor temperature, with several risk indicators reported by age and multiple geographical levels. The analysis provides detailed risk maps that are useful for designing effective public health and climate policies at both local and national levels.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Natural Environment Research Council, EU Horizon 2020 Programme, National Institute of Health Research.

Knowledge Gaps and Research Priorities on the Health Effects of Heatwaves: A Systematic Review of Reviews

Although extreme weather events have played a constant role in human history, heatwaves (HWs) have become more frequent and intense in the past decades, causing concern especially in light of the increasing evidence on climate change. Despite the increasing number of reviews suggesting a relationship between heat and health, these reviews focus primarily on mortality, neglecting other important aspects. This systematic review of reviews gathered the available evidence from research syntheses conducted on HWs and health. Following the PRISMA guidelines, 2232 records were retrieved, and 283 reviews were ultimately included. Information was extracted from the papers and categorized by topics. Quantitative data were extracted from meta-analyses and, when not available, evidence was collected from systematic reviews. Overall, 187 reviews were non-systematic, while 96 were systematic, of which 27 performed a meta-analysis. The majority evaluated mortality, morbidity, or vulnerability, while the other topics were scarcely addressed. The following main knowledge gaps were identified: lack of a universally accepted definition of HW; scarce evidence on the HW-mental health relationship; no meta-analyses assessing the risk perception of HWs; scarcity of studies evaluating the efficacy of adaptation strategies and interventions. Future efforts should meet these priorities to provide high-quality evidence to stakeholders.

Analysis of vulnerability to heat in rural and urban areas in Spain: What factors explain Heat's geographic behavior?

INTRODUCTION

There is currently little knowledge and few published works on the subject of vulnerability to heat in rural environments at the country level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine whether rural areas are more vulnerable to extreme heat than urban areas in Spain. This study aimed to analyze whether a pattern of vulnerability depends on contextual, environmental, demographic, economic and housing variables.

METHODS

An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out based on time series data between January 01, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in 42 geographic areas in 10 provinces in Spain. We first analyzed the functional relationship between the mortality rate per million inhabitants and maximum daily temperature (Tmax). We then determined the summer temperature threshold (Pthreshold) (June-September) at which increases in mortality are produced that are attributable to heat. In a second phase, based on Pthreshold, a vulnerability variable was calculated, and its distribution was analyzed using mixed linear models from the Poisson family (link = log). In these models, the dependent variable was vulnerability, and the independent variables were exposure to high temperatures, aridity of the climate, deprivation index, percentage of people over age 65, rurality index, percentage of housing built prior to 1980 and condition of dwellings.

RESULTS

Rurality was a protective factor, and vulnerability in urban areas was six times greater. In contrast, risk factors included aridity (RR = 5.89 (2.26 15.36)), living in cool summer zones (2.69 (1.23, 5.91)), poverty (4.05 (1.91 8.59)) and the percentage of dysfunctional housing (1.13 (1.04 1.24)).

CONCLUSIONS

Rural areas are less vulnerable to extreme heat than the urban areas analyzed. Also, population groups with worse working conditions and higher percentages of dwellings in poor conditions are more vulnerable.

Health effects of climate change: an overview of systematic reviews

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a systematic synthesis of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change, by synthesising studies' characteristics, climate impacts, health outcomes and key findings.

DESIGN

We conducted an overview of systematic reviews of health impacts of climate change. We registered our review in PROSPERO (CRD42019145972). No ethical approval was required since we used secondary data. Additional data are not available.

DATA SOURCES

On 22 June 2019, we searched Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included systematic reviews that explored at least one health impact of climate change.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

We organised systematic reviews according to their key characteristics, including geographical regions, year of publication and authors' affiliations. We mapped the climate effects and health outcomes being studied and synthesised major findings. We used a modified version of A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews-2 (AMSTAR-2) to assess the quality of studies.

RESULTS

We included 94 systematic reviews. Most were published after 2015 and approximately one-fifth contained meta-analyses. Reviews synthesised evidence about five categories of climate impacts; the two most common were meteorological and extreme weather events. Reviews covered 10 health outcome categories; the 3 most common were (1) infectious diseases, (2) mortality and (3) respiratory, cardiovascular or neurological outcomes. Most reviews suggested a deleterious impact of climate change on multiple adverse health outcomes, although the majority also called for more research.

CONCLUSIONS

Most systematic reviews suggest that climate change is associated with worse human health. This study provides a comprehensive higher order summary of research on health impacts of climate change. Study limitations include possible missed relevant reviews, no meta-meta-analyses, and no assessment of overlap. Future research could explore the potential explanations between these associations to propose adaptation and mitigation strategies and could include broader sociopsychological health impacts of climate change.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between daily mean temperature and mortality in China

PURPOSE

We summarized the evidence on the effects of heat and cold exposures on mortality in China. We included studies published on this topic in both Chinese and English, thereby filling a gap in knowledge using data from a country that consists of one-fifth of the world's population.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of peer-reviewed studies on the association between daily mean temperature and mortality published from 2001 up to July 2018. We searched one Chinese database (China National Knowledge infrastructure, http://www.cnki.net) and three English databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science). We converted the effect estimates of heat/cold to rate ratios (RRs) associated with 1° increase/decrease beyond the heat/cold reference temperatures. For studies that provided lag-specific estimates, we used both the maximum and minimum of RR estimates. We calculated summary effect estimates for all-cause and cause-specific mortalities, as well as RRs stratified by sex, age, and socioeconomic status. We also investigated patterns of heat and cold adaptation at different latitudes, and at different reference temperatures.

RESULTS

In total, 45 articles were included in this systematic review. For every 1° temperature increase/decrease beyond reference points, the rate of non-accidental mortality increased by 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% confidence interval (95% CI [1.01-1.02]) for heat and 4% (RR, 1.04; 95% CI [1.03-1.04]) for cold, respectively; the rate of cardiovascular mortality increased 3% (RR, 1.03; 95% CI [1.03-1.04]) for heat and 6% (RR, 1.06; 95% CI [1.04-1.07]) for cold; the rate of respiratory mortality increased 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% CI [1.01-1.03]) for heat and 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% CI [1.00-1.04]) for cold; the rate of cerebrovascular mortality increased 2% (RR, 1.02; 95% CI [1.02-1.03]) for heat and 3% (RR, 1.03; 95% CI [1.02-1.04]) for cold. We identified a variation in optimal temperature range related to latitude of the residential area, and differences in people's capability to adapt to heat versus cold.

CONCLUSION

We found consistent evidence of the association between temperature and mortality, as well as evidence of patterns in human adaptation, and we discussed the implications of our findings.

Estimation of work-related injury and economic burden attributable to heat stress in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Climate change has exacerbated the health effects of high ambient temperatures on occupational health and safety; however, to what extent heat stress can induce workplace injuries and economic costs is poorly studied. This study aimed to quantify the attributable fractions of injury claims and subsequent insurance payouts using data from work-related injury insurance system in Guangzhou, China.

METHODS

Individual workers' injury claims data were collected for the period of 2011-2012, including demographic characteristics and work-related information. Daily maximum wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT, °C) was calculated from meteorological data. To examine the association between WBGT index and work-related injury, we fit a quasi-Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear model. Then we calculated the numbers of injury claims and costs of insurance compensations attributable to days with WBGT above the heat stress limit according to the national occupational health standards.

RESULTS

There were 9550 work-related injury claims, resulting in an insurance payout of 282.3 million Chinese Yuan. The risks of injury claims increased with rising WBGT. 4.8% (95% eCI: 2.9%-6.9%) of work-related injuries and 4.1% (95% eCI: 0.2%-7.7%) of work-related injury insurance payouts were attributed to heat exposure for WBGT threshold above the heat stress limit. Male workers, those in small enterprises and with low educational attainment were especially sensitive to the effects of heat exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Heat stress can contribute to higher risk of work-related injury and substantial economic costs. Quantified the impacts of injuries and related economic costs should be considered to develop targeted preventive measures in the context of climate change.