On the Nature of Evidence and 'Proving' Causality: Smoking and Lung Cancer vs. Sun Exposure, Vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis

MicroRNAs targeting TGF-β signaling exacerbate central nervous system autoimmunity by disrupting regulatory T cell development and function

Transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β) signaling is essential for a balanced immune response by mediating the development and function of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and suppressing autoreactive T cells. Disruption of this balance can result in autoimmune diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS). MicroRNAs (miRNAs) targeting TGF-β signaling have been shown to be upregulated in naïve CD4 T cells in MS patients, resulting in a limited in vitro generation of human Tregs. Utilizing the murine model experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show that perinatal administration of miRNAs, which target the TGF-β signaling pathway, enhanced susceptibility to central nervous system (CNS) autoimmunity. Neonatal mice administered with these miRNAs further exhibited reduced Treg frequencies with a loss in T cell receptor repertoire diversity following the induction of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in adulthood. Exacerbated CNS autoimmunity as a result of miRNA overexpression in CD4 T cells was accompanied by enhanced Th1 and Th17 cell frequencies. These findings demonstrate that increased levels of TGF-β-associated miRNAs impede the development of a diverse Treg population, leading to enhanced effector cell activity, and contributing to an increased susceptibility to CNS autoimmunity. Thus, TGF-β-targeting miRNAs could be a risk factor for MS, and recovering optimal TGF-β signaling may restore immune homeostasis in MS patients.

Lung Cancer Prevalence in Virginia: A Spatial Zipcode-Level Analysis via INLA

BACKGROUND

Examining lung cancer (LC) cases in Virginia (VA) is essential due to its significant public health implications. By studying demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables, this paper aims to provide insights into the underlying drivers of LC prevalence in the state adjusted for spatial associations at the zipcode level.

METHODS

We model the available VA zipcode-level LC counts via (spatial) Poisson and negative binomial regression models, taking into account missing covariate data, zipcode-level spatial association and allow for overdispersion. Under latent Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) assumptions, our Bayesian hierarchical model powered by Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) considers simultaneous (spatial) imputation of all missing covariates through elegant prediction. The spatial random effect across zip codes follows a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) prior.

RESULTS

Zip codes with elevated smoking indices demonstrated a corresponding increase in LC counts, underscoring the well-established connection between smoking and LC. Additionally, we observed a notable correlation between higher Social Deprivation Index (SDI) scores and increased LC counts, aligning with the prevalent pattern of heightened LC prevalence in regions characterized by lower income and education levels. On the demographic level, our findings indicated higher LC counts in zip codes with larger White and Black populations (with Whites having higher prevalence than Blacks), lower counts in zip codes with higher Hispanic populations (compared to non-Hispanics), and higher prevalence among women compared to men. Furthermore, zip codes with a larger population of elderly people (age ≥ 65 years) exhibited higher LC prevalence, consistent with established national patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

This comprehensive analysis contributes to our understanding of the complex interplay of demographic and socioeconomic factors influencing LC disparities in VA at the zip code level, providing valuable information for targeted public health interventions and resource allocation. Implementation code is available at GitHub.

Gas cooking and respiratory outcomes in children: A systematic review

The most recent meta-analysis of gas cooking and respiratory outcomes in children was conducted by Lin et al. [93] in 2013. Since then, a number of epidemiology studies have been published on this topic. We conducted the first systematic review of this epidemiology literature that includes an in-depth evaluation of study heterogeneity and study quality, neither of which was systematically evaluated in earlier reviews. We reviewed a total of 66 relevant studies, including those in the Lin et al. [93] meta-analysis. Most of the studies are cross-sectional by design, precluding causal inference. Only a few are cohort studies that could establish temporality and they have largely reported null results. There is large variability across studies in terms of study region, age of children, gas cooking exposure definition, and asthma or wheeze outcome definition, precluding clear interpretations of meta-analysis estimates such as those reported in Lin et al. [93]. Further, our systematic study quality evaluation reveals that a large proportion of the studies to date are subject to multiple sources of bias and inaccuracy, primarily due to self-reported gas cooking exposure or respiratory outcomes, insufficient adjustment for key confounders (e.g., environmental tobacco smoke, family history of asthma or allergies, socioeconomic status or home environment), and unestablished temporality. We conclude that the epidemiology literature is limited by high heterogeneity and low study quality and, therefore, it does not provide sufficient evidence regarding causal relationships between gas cooking or indoor NO2 and asthma or wheeze. We caution against over-interpreting the quantitative evidence synthesis estimates from meta-analyses of these studies.

The effects of exposure to solar radiation on human health

This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) evaluates the effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation on human health within the context of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments. We assess work published since our last comprehensive assessment in 2018. Over the last four years gains have been made in knowledge of the links between sun exposure and health outcomes, mechanisms, and estimates of disease burden, including economic impacts. Of particular note, there is new information about the way in which exposure to UV radiation modulates the immune system, causing both harms and benefits for health. The burden of skin cancer remains high, with many lives lost to melanoma and many more people treated for keratinocyte cancer, but it has been estimated that the Montreal Protocol will prevent 11 million cases of melanoma and 432 million cases of keratinocyte cancer that would otherwise have occurred in the United States in people born between 1890 and 2100. While the incidence of skin cancer continues to rise, rates have stabilised in younger populations in some countries. Mortality has also plateaued, partly due to the use of systemic therapies for advanced disease. However, these therapies are very expensive, contributing to the extremely high economic burden of skin cancer, and emphasising the importance and comparative cost-effectiveness of prevention. Photodermatoses, inflammatory skin conditions induced by exposure to UV radiation, can have a marked detrimental impact on the quality of life of sufferers. More information is emerging about their potential link with commonly used drugs, particularly anti-hypertensives. The eyes are also harmed by over-exposure to UV radiation. The incidence of cataract and pterygium is continuing to rise, and there is now evidence of a link between intraocular melanoma and sun exposure. It has been estimated that the Montreal Protocol will prevent 63 million cases of cataract that would otherwise have occurred in the United States in people born between 1890 and 2100. Despite the clearly established harms, exposure to UV radiation also has benefits for human health. While the best recognised benefit is production of vitamin D, beneficial effects mediated by factors other than vitamin D are emerging. For both sun exposure and vitamin D, there is increasingly convincing evidence of a positive role in diseases related to immune function, including both autoimmune diseases and infection. With its influence on the intensity of UV radiation and global warming, the Montreal Protocol has, and will have, both direct and indirect effects on human health, potentially changing the balance of the risks and benefits of spending time outdoors.

Causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies is often inconsistent with intent: A systematic survey

OBJECTIVE

We systematically evaluated causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies and explored the relation between language use and the intent of the investigation.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched Embase, Medline, and Epistemonikos. We randomly selected 199 reviews published in 2019, stratified in a 1:1 ratio by use and non-use of the GRADE approach to rating quality of evidence.

RESULTS

Of 199 reviews of observational studies 56.8% had causal intent. Reviews with causal intent were more likely to investigate therapeutic clinical intervention (33.6% vs 12.8%). While 78.8% of those with causal intent used causal language in one or more sections of the title, abstract, or main text, only 4.4% consistently used causal language throughout the manuscript, and 21.2% did not use causal language at all. Of reviews without causal intent, 51.2% used causal language somewhere in the manuscript.

CONCLUSION

Systematic reviews of observational studies sometimes do and sometimes do not have causal intent. Both those are inconsistent in causal language use and often use language inconsistent with the intent. Journal policies would better serve clarity of thinking and appropriateness of inferences by demanding authors clearly specify their intent and consistently use language consistent with that intent.

A Narrative Review of the Evidence for Variations in Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentration Thresholds for Optimal Health

Vitamin D3 has many important health benefits. Unfortunately, these benefits are not widely known among health care personnel and the general public. As a result, most of the world's population has serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations far below optimal values. This narrative review examines the evidence for the major causes of death including cardiovascular disease, hypertension, cancer, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and COVID-19 with regard to sub-optimal 25(OH)D concentrations. Evidence for the beneficial effects comes from a variety of approaches including ecological and observational studies, studies of mechanisms, and Mendelian randomization studies. Although randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are generally considered the strongest form of evidence for pharmaceutical drugs, the study designs and the conduct of RCTs performed for vitamin D have mostly been flawed for the following reasons: they have been based on vitamin D dose rather than on baseline and achieved 25(OH)D concentrations; they have involved participants with 25(OH)D concentrations above the population mean; they have given low vitamin D doses; and they have permitted other sources of vitamin D. Thus, the strongest evidence generally comes from the other types of studies. The general finding is that optimal 25(OH)D concentrations to support health and wellbeing are above 30 ng/mL (75 nmol/L) for cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality rate, whereas the thresholds for several other outcomes appear to range up to 40 or 50 ng/mL. The most efficient way to achieve these concentrations is through vitamin D supplementation. Although additional studies are warranted, raising serum 25(OH)D concentrations to optimal concentrations will result in a significant reduction in preventable illness and death.

Breast implant illness: scientific evidence of its existence

INTRODUCTION

More than one million breast augmentation procedures using silicone breast implants (SBI) have been performed worldwide. Adverse events of SBI include local complications such as pain, swelling, redness, infections, capsular contracture, implant rupture and gel-bleed. Furthermore, patients experience systemic symptoms such as chronic fatigue, arthralgias, myalgias, pyrexia, sicca, and cognitive dysfunction. These symptoms received different names such as autoimmune/inflammatory syndrome induced by adjuvants (ASIA) due to silicone incompatibility syndrome and breast implant illness (BII). Because of chronic immune activation, BII/ASIA, allergies, autoimmune diseases, immune deficiencies and finally lymphomas may develop in SBI patients.

AREAS COVERED

Causality for SBI-related BII/ASIA is reviewed. To address the role of silicone implants in promoting causality, we utilized the Bradford-Hill criteria, with results highlighted in this article.

EXPERT OPINION

We conclude that there is a causal association between SBIs and BII/ASIA. Using data derived from patients with BII/ASIA and from other medically implanted devices, there appears to be clear pathogenic relationship between SBI and BII/ASIA. Breast implants cause characteristic systemic reactions in certain women, leading to symptoms of sufficient severity to warrant device removal. The morbidity suffered is variable. SBI removal resolves the symptoms in most women and removal is the most effective treatment.

Reflection on modern methods: building causal evidence within high-dimensional molecular epidemiological studies of moderate size

This commentary provides a practical perspective on epidemiological analysis within a single high-dimensional study of moderate size to consider a causal question. In this setting, non-causal confounding is important. This occurs when a factor is a determinant of outcome and the underlying association between exposure and the factor is non-causal. That is, the association arises due to chance, confounding or other bias rather than reflecting that exposure and the factor are causally related. In particular, the influence of technical processing factors must be accounted for by pre-processing measures to remove artefact or to control for these factors such as batch run. Work steps include the evaluation of alternative non-causal explanations for observed exposure-disease associations and strategies to obtain the highest level of causal inference possible within the study. A systematic approach is required to work through a question set and obtain insights on not only the exposure-disease association but also the multifactorial causal structure of the underlying data where possible. The appropriate inclusion of molecular findings will enhance the quest to better understand multifactorial disease causation in modern observational epidemiological studies.

Systematic survey of the causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Sometimes, observational studies may provide important evidence that allow inferences of causality between exposure and outcome (although on most occasions only low certainty evidence). Authors, frequently and perhaps usually at the behest of the journals to which they are submitting, avoid using causal language when addressing evidence from observational studies. This is true even when the issue of interest is the causal effect of an intervention or exposure. Clarity of thinking and appropriateness of inferences may be enhanced through the use of language that reflects the issue under consideration. The objectives of this study are to systematically evaluate the extent and nature of causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies and to relate that to the actual intent of the investigation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a systematic survey of systematic reviews of observational studies addressing modifiable exposures and their possible impact on patient-important outcomes. We will randomly select 200 reviews published in 2019, stratified in a 1:1 ratio by use and non-use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). Teams of two reviewers will independently assess study eligibility and extract data using a standardised data extraction forms, with resolution of disagreement by discussion and, if necessary, by third party adjudication. Through examining the inferences, they make in their papers' discussion, we will evaluate whether the authors' intent was to address causation or association. We will summarise the use of causal language in the study title, abstract, study question and results using descriptive statistics. Finally, we will assess whether the language used is consistent with the intention of the authors. We will determine whether results in reviews that did or did not use GRADE differ.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval for this study is not required. We will disseminate the results through publication in a peer-reviewed journals.

REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework (osf.io/vh8yx).

Vitamin D, Autoimmune Disease and Rheumatoid Arthritis

Vitamin D has been reported to influence physiological systems that extend far beyond its established functions in calcium and bone homeostasis. Prominent amongst these are the potent immunomodulatory effects of the active form of vitamin D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25-(OH)2D3). The nuclear vitamin D receptor (VDR) for 1,25-(OH)2D3 is expressed by many cells within the immune system and resulting effects include modulation of T cell phenotype to suppress pro-inflammatory Th1 and Th17 CD4+ T cells and promote tolerogenic regulatory T cells. In addition, antigen-presenting cells have been shown to express the enzyme 1α-hydroxylase that converts precursor 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25-OHD3) to 1,25-(OH)2D3, so that immune microenvironments are able to both activate and respond to vitamin D. As a consequence of this local, intracrine, system, immune responses may vary according to the availability of 25-OHD3, and vitamin D deficiency has been linked to various autoimmune disorders including rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of this review is to explore the immune activities of vitamin D that impact autoimmune disease, with specific reference to RA. As well as outlining the mechanisms linking vitamin D with autoimmune disease, the review will also describe the different studies that have linked vitamin D status to RA, and the current supplementation studies that have explored the potential benefits of vitamin D for prevention or treatment of RA. The overall aim of the review is to provide a fresh perspective on the potential role of vitamin D in RA pathogenesis and treatment.

Environmental and genetic risk factors for MS: an integrated review

Recent findings have provided a molecular basis for the combined contributions of multifaceted risk factors for the onset of multiple sclerosis (MS). MS appears to start as a chronic dysregulation of immune homeostasis resulting from complex interactions between genetic predispositions, infectious exposures, and factors that lead to pro-inflammatory states, including smoking, obesity, and low sun exposure. This is supported by the discovery of gene-environment (GxE) interactions and epigenetic alterations triggered by environmental exposures in individuals with particular genetic make-ups. It is notable that several of these pro-inflammatory factors have not emerged as strong prognostic indicators. Biological processes at play during the relapsing phase of the disease may result from initial inflammatory-mediated injury, while risk factors for the later phase of MS, which is weighted toward neurodegeneration, are not yet well defined. This integrated review of current evidence guides recommendations for clinical practice and highlights research gaps.

Flammer syndrome in multiple sclerosis: diagnostics, prediction, and personalization of treatments

Background

Flammer syndrome (FS) occurs from well-described signs and symptoms. The syndrome itself is not a disease, but it may be a directive marker for advancing therapeutic approaches by predictive and preventive measures as well as for personalization of treatments. The syndrome is related to many diseases, but FS has been rarely studied in multiple sclerosis (MS). The study aimed to determine whether FS signs and symptoms occur more often in people with MS than in healthy controls, and in order to personalize the treatment, we investigated the possible effect of current therapies on FS signs and symptoms.

Methods

Two hundred twenty-two MS patients and 203 healthy controls answered the questionnaire consisting of 15 signs and symptoms of FS.

Results

MS patients had significantly more complaints in 9 items of FS signs and symptoms (cold hands or/and feet, the reduced feeling of thirst, dizziness, drug side effects, other headaches (tension-type, medication overuse), weight loss, feeling cold, long sleep-onset time, and skin blotches) compared to healthy controls. Six items (low blood pressure, tinnitus, increased odor sensitivity, low pain threshold, and perfectionism) were similar between the two groups. The treatment agents currently used did not have any effect on the signs and symptoms of FS.

Conclusion

This study showed that FS might be associated with MS. Injectable or oral agents are not related to the signs and symptoms of FS. Further studies are needed to validate this association.

Relevance of the article for predictive preventive and personalized medicine

FS is common among MS patients. Being aware of this incidence that might impair the life quality of MS patients is useful to predict the comorbidity and develop preventive strategies and applying personalized treatment options and procedures.