Long-Term Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China 1990-2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Association of HBeAg decline rate from mid-pregnancy to delivery with HBeAg seroconversion after delivery in hepatitis B virus-infected mothers

There is still controversy about whether to continue antiviral therapy (AVT) after delivery, especially for pregnant women in the immune tolerance (IT) phase. In this study, a retrospective cohort study was conducted to explore the relationship between hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) decline rate (%) from mid-pregnancy to delivery and HBeAg seroconversion postpartum among patients using nucleos(t)ide analogs (NAs) to prevent mother-to-child transmission (MTCT), with the goal of identifying the ideal candidates for postpartum AVT continuation. This retrospective cohort study included 151 postpartum women. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the association between the HBeAg decline rate (%) from mid-pregnancy to delivery and HBeAg seroconversion postpartum. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was utilized to evaluate the predictive capacity of the HBeAg decline rate (%) and determine the optimal cut-off point. The univariate analysis revealed a significant association between the HBeAg decline rate (%) and HBeAg seroconversion postpartum (OR 1.068, 95% CI: 1.034-1.103, p < .001). In the multivariate regression analysis, adjusting for age, hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) titre (log10 IU/mL) at mid-pregnancy, HBeAg titre (log10 S/CO) at mid-pregnancy, and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA load decline rate (%) from mid-pregnancy to delivery, the HBeAg decline rate(%) remained significantly associated with HBeAg seroconversion postpartum (OR 1.050, 95% CI: 1.015-1.093, p = .009). Then HBeAg decline rate (%) was treated as a categorical variable (tertiles) for sensitivity analysis. In the three distinct models, taking Tertile1 as a reference, women in Tertile3 still had a 4.201-fold (OR 4.201, 95% CI: 1.382-12.773, p = .011) higher risk of developing HBeAg seroconversion (p for trend <.05) after adjusting above covariates. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.723 (95% CI: 0.627-0.819). The optimal cut-off value was 5.43%, with a sensitivity of 0.561, specificity of 0.791, and Youden's index of 0.352.A higher HBeAg decline rate (%) from mid-pregnancy to delivery independently correlated with an increased risk of HBeAg seroconversion postpartum. This decline rate can serve as a valuable clinical indicator for predicting HBeAg seroconversion.

"Treat-all" Strategy for Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection in China: Are We There Yet?

Chronic hepatitis B remains the primary cause of liver-related events in China. The World Health Organization set a goal to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, achieving this goal appears challenging due to the current low rates of diagnosis and treatment. The "Treat-all" strategy, which proposes treating all patients with detectable hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA or even all patients with positive HBsAg, has been suggested to simplify anti-HBV treatment. In 2022, the Chinese Society of Hepatology and the Chinese Society of Infectious Diseases updated the guidelines for the prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B in China, expanding antiviral indications and simplifying the treatment algorithm. According to this latest guideline, nearly 95% of patients with detectable HBV DNA are eligible for antiviral treatment. This review aimed to provide a detailed interpretation of the treatment indications outlined in the Chinese Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B (version 2022) and to identify gaps in achieving the "Treat-all" strategy in China.

Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China

Introduction

Liver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

Data were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period.

Results

The age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively.

Conclusions

The early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

Time trends in liver cancer mortality rates in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018

OBJECTIVE

Liver cancer is the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Hepatitis B and C infections are the main factors affecting mortality. During recent years, Montenegro conducted activities on eradication of viral hepatitis according to the global strategy for the primary prevention of liver cancer mortality. The objective of this study was to assess the liver cancer mortality trend in Montenegro for the period of 1990-2018 using regression techniques.

METHODS

liver cancer mortality data in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018 were collected. Mortality rates were age standardized to the World Standard Population. The joinpoint, linear and Poisson regressions were used to assess liver cancer mortality trends both overall and gender specific.

RESULTS

The mortality trend was constant, with no significant increase or decrease in mortality rates both at the overall level and by gender. The number of cases, however, increases significantly at the overall level by an average of 1.4% per year [average annual percentage change (AAPC) (95% confidence interval, CI): 1.4 (0.5-2.3); P  = 0.004] and in women by 1.9% per year [AAPC (95% CI): 1.9 (0.8-3.1); P  = 0.002]. In men, there was no change in the number of cases. The three age groups most burdened by mortality from liver cancer were 65-74 (34.9%), 75-84 (26.6%) and 55-64 (25.8%).

CONCLUSION

The consistent implementation of prevention measures and hepatitis virus infection treatment has played a role in partially favorable liver cancer mortality trends in Montenegro. It is crucial to closely monitor guidelines for this cancer and give particular attention to the elderly population as the most affected.

Long-term trends in incidence, mortality and burden of liver cancer due to specific etiologies in Hubei Province

Liver cancer, a chronic non-communicable disease, represents a serious public health problem. Long-term trends in the burden of liver cancer disease are heterogeneous across regions. Incidence and mortality of liver cancer, based on the Global Burden of Disease, were collected from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-period-cohort model was utilized to reveal the secular trends and estimate the age, period and cohort effects on primary liver cancer due to specific etiologies. Both the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate of liver cancer in Hubei province were on the rise, although there were discrepancies between gender groups. From age-period-cohort analysis, both incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to Hepatitis B virus were the highest in all age groups. The incidence of all liver cancer groups increased with time period in males, while this upward trend was observed in females only in liver cancer due to alcohol use group. Cohort effects indicated the disease burden of liver cancer decreased with birth cohorts. Local drifts showed that the incidence of liver cancer due to specific etiologies was increasing in the age group of males between 40 and 75 years old. The impact of an aging population will continue in Hubei Province. the disease burden of liver cancer will continue to increase, and personalized prevention policies must be adopted to address these changes.

The mortality of oral cancer attributable to tobacco in China, the US, and India

PURPOSE

Assessing the mortality rates associated with tobacco-related oral cancer (OC) is crucial for effective allocation of resources within healthcare and economic systems.

METHODS

In this study, data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 were utilized to analyze the burden of tobacco-attributable OC in China, the United States (US), and India from 1990 to 2019. Descriptive statistics and an age-period-cohort model were employed to examine and compare the effects on OC mortality.

RESULTS

1. Attributable to tobacco, the deaths remained stable in the US, but increased in China and India. The trend of age-standardized mortality rate of OC increased in China, and decreased in the US and India, whereas the rate in India was the highest. 2. According to the APC model, the risk of death increased with age in all three countries. The period and later birth cohort effects were identified as risk factors in China and India, while in the US, the previous cohorts were identified as a risk factor. Except for India, males faced higher death risk than females in China and the US.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of OC attributable to tobacco remains substantial in China and India. Public health officials in these countries should implement prevention and treatment strategies for OC, and interventions aimed at regulating the tobacco industry. The elderly is at an elevated risk for OC, and medical resources and policies should be directed toward this population. The successes experience in tobacco control and OC prevention in the US may serve as a model for other countries.

Guidelines for the Prevention and Treatment of Chronic Hepatitis B (version 2022)

To facilitate the achieving of the goal of "eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health threat by 2030" set by the World Health Organization, the Chinese Society of Hepatology together with the Chinese Society of Infectious Diseases (both are branches of the Chinese Medical Association) organized a panel of experts and updated the guidelines for prevention and treatment of chronic hepatitis B in China (version 2022). With the support of available evidence, this revision of the guidelines focuses on active prevention, large scale testing, and expansion of therapeutic indication of chronic hepatitis B with the aim of reducing the hepatitis B related disease burden.

Age-Period-Cohort Study of Breast Cancer Mortality in Brazil in State Capitals and in Non-Capital Municipalities from 1980 to 2019

Breast cancer was identified as the cancer with the highest mortality rate among women in Brazil. This study analyzed the effects of age, period and birth cohort on the breast cancer mortality rate for Brazilian women, comparing state capitals and non-capital municipalities. Population and deaths data were extracted from the Brazilian Unified Health System database for women aged 30 years or older, for the years between 1980 and 2019. The effects were analyzed using the age-period-cohort model. Age effect on breast cancer mortality is observed in the model through higher mortality rates at older ages. Period effect is similar in all regions in the form of a marked increase in the rate ratio (RR) in non-capital municipalities by period than in state capitals. The RR of birth cohorts in the state capitals remained stable (north, northeast and central-west regions) or decreased followed by an increase in the most recent cohorts (Brazil as a whole and the southeast and south regions). The RR for the other municipalities, however, showed a progressive increase in the cohorts for all regions. Policies and actions focused on breast cancer in women should consider these differences among Brazilian regions, state capitals and other municipalities.

Cancer morbidity and mortality trends in Trinidad and Tobago (2008-2018)

PURPOSE

Cancer is a leading cause of death in the Caribbean, and the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is no exception. Evidence suggests that cancer incidence and mortality may vary based on demographic factors across the different cancer types. This study aimed to investigate the incidence and mortality trends associated with cancer cases in Trinidad and Tobago for the period 2008-2018, across different age groups, gender, and ethnicity.

METHODS

Data on 15,029 incident cancer cases were reported to the Dr. Elizabeth Quamina Cancer Registry between 2008 and 2018. The retrospective data were analyzed by sex, ancestry, and age, and were reported using Trinidad and Tobago population statistics for the period 2008-2018.

RESULTS

The incidence of prostate and breast cancers was high among males and females, respectively. Among males, the highest cancer mortality was associated with prostate, lung, colon, blood, and pancreatic cancers, respectively. Among females, the highest cancer mortality was associated with breast, ovary, colon, blood, and pancreatic cancers. The frequency of occurrence of the top five cancer sites was the highest among Afro-Trinidadians followed by Indo-Trinidadians. Most females diagnosed with breast cancer were at a localized stage, while most males diagnosed with breast cancer were at a distant or regional stage. Most individuals diagnosed with blood cancer were at a distant stage. For lung and colon cancer, the stage of diagnosis for most males and females was either distant or unknown. Majority of males are diagnosed with prostate cancer at an unknown stage.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate highest cancer incidence and mortality occur among Afro-Trinidadians. The stage at diagnosis varies across cancer types and gender.

Long-term trends in the burden of edentulism in China over three decades: A Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019

Background

To investigate secular trends in edentulism incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) rates in Chinese men and women from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percentage change and average annual percentage change were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The age-period-cohort (APC) analysis estimated the independent age, period, and cohort effects.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the crude incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of edentulism in the Chinese population increased year by year, while the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs decreased, and the latter was higher in women than in men. The APC analysis showed that the age effect increased in men and women from age 20 to 74 and decreased thereafter. The risk of tooth loss increased with age. However, the relationship was not linear. The temporal effect showed a gradual increase; the risk of missing teeth gradually increased with the changing modern living environment. The cohort effect showed a single decreasing trend, with the early birth cohort having a higher risk of tooth loss than the later birth cohort population. The age, period, and cohort effects were consistent for both sexes.

Conclusion

Although the standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLD rate and cohort effect of dentition loss in China are declining, they are still causing a severe burden to China due to the continued aging of the population and the rising period effect. Despite the decreasing trends of the standardized incidence and prevalence of dentition loss and the rate of YLDs, China should develop more effective oral disease prevention and control strategies to reduce the increasing burden of edentulism in the older adult, especially in older women.

Secular Trends of Liver Cancer Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Wuhan, China 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

Liver cancer has caused a heavy burden worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the trends in the mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to liver cancer and decompose the total deaths into three contributors: population growth, population aging, and mortality change.

METHODS

Our study used data from the cause-of-death surveillance system in Wuhan. The mortality and YLL rates were standardized according to the sixth national population census in China. This study calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to estimate the trends in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized YLL rate (ASYR). Meanwhile, a decomposition analysis was used to explore the effect of population growth, population aging, and age-specific mortality change on the change in liver cancer deaths.

RESULTS

The ASMR of liver cancer declined at an annual rate of 4.6% from 30.87 per 100,000 people in 2010 to 20.29 per 100,000 people in 2019, while the ASYR was at an annual rate of 5.6% from 969.35 per 100,000 people in 2010 to 581.82 per 100,000 people in 2019. Similar downward trends were seen in men and women. The decomposition analysis found that total deaths number changed by -12.42% from 2010 to 2019, of which population growth and population aging caused the total death numbers to increase by 9.75% and 21.15%, while the age-specific mortality change caused the total death numbers to decrease by 43.32%.

CONCLUSION

Although the ASMR of liver cancer has declined in recent years in Wuhan, it still causes a heavy burden with the increasing population and rapid population aging and remains an essential public health issue. The government should take measures to reduce the burden of liver cancer, especially among men.

Efficacy and Safety of TKI Plus PD-1 Inhibitors in Elderly uHCC Patients: A Retrospective Study

PURPOSE

To explore the efficacy and safety of sorafenib- or lenvatinib-based combination therapy with PD-1 inhibitors in elderly patients aged ≥75 years with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Systemic therapy-naïve uHCC patients who received first-line sorafenib- or lenvatinib-based combination therapy with PD-1 inhibitors were continually reviewed. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and the secondary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR), and disease control rate (DCR) in accordance with the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1. Adverse events (AEs) and immune-related AEs (irAEs) were also evaluated. Groups and subgroups were separated at the ages of 65 and 75 years and compared with 1:1 matching.

RESULTS

Total 169 eligible patients were enrolled, including 24 aged ≥75 years. Median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in these 24 elderly patients were 4.6 (95% CI: 2.6-6.6) months, and 17.0 (95% CI: 11.2-22.8) months, with 3-, 6-, 12-month OS rate at 82.90%, 73.70%, and 57.50%. Age ≥75 years was confirmed to be a risk factor influencing PFS among patients aged ≥65 years. Adverse events (AEs) were recorded in all these 24 elderly patients, with seven patients experiencing immune-mediated AEs (irAEs). Nearly 30% of elderly patients stopped treatment due to AEs (16% of these due to irAEs). No statistical differences were found in all efficacy endpoints at the cutoff age of 65 years.

CONCLUSION

For patients aged ≥75 years, application of PD-1 inhibitors in combination with sorafenib or lenvatinib is promising, but this has to be done with caution and needs to be confirmed by future prospective studies.

Spatial and temporal analysis of liver cancer mortality in Yunnan province, China, 2015-2019

Liver cancer is a major public health challenge. Few published studies reported temporal trend and geographical distribution of liver cancer mortality in China, especially in less developed southwest regions with higher liver cancer incidence. In the current study, we obtained liver cancer mortality data from population-based death surveillance system in Yunnan province in 2015-2019. The mortality of liver cancer was analyzed by using the joinpoint regression model. The space distribution of liver cancer mortality in 129 counties and districts in Yunnan province was illustrated by using the ArcGIS software. Moran's I method was used to estimate the global and local spatial autocorrelation of liver cancer mortality. Analytical results revealed that from 2015 to 2019, the average mortality rate of liver cancer in Yunnan province was 12.96/100,000, with an average annual growth rate of 6.26% (p < 0.05). Higher liver cancer mortality was found in rural areas and in males. Moreover, people aged 45-50 years experienced a steep increase in liver cancer mortality rate. High-high cluster was mainly consisted of areas with higher hepatitis virus infection rate or severe intravenous drug use problem. Our study results suggest a heavy burden of liver cancer in southwest China Yunnan province. Comprehensive intervention measures need to be developed and implemented.

Willingness to pay for packaging cancer screening of Chinese rural residents

BACKGROUND

This study examined the acceptance and willingness to pay (WTP) of rural residents toward packaging cancer screening (PCS) to provide a reference basis for promoting the screening sustainable development.

METHODS

A face-to-face questionnaire survey was conducted among rural residents aged 40-69. The combination of double-bounded dichotomous choices and open-ended questions in the Contingent Valuation Method was used to guide participants' WTP. Logistic regression was used to explore the influencing factors of participants' screening acceptance, and Tobit model was used to analyze the associated factors of WTP.

RESULTS

Of the 959 respondents, 89.36% were willing to accept PCS, but 10.64% stated unwillingness for the dominant reason that they did not attend clinics until symptom onset. Willingness to accept screening was significantly associated with region (Dongchangfu, OR = 0.251, 95%CI: 0.113~0.557; Linqu, OR = 0.150, 95%CI: 0.069~0.325), age with 60-69 (OR = 0.321, 95%CI: 0.126~0.816), annual income with 10,000-30,000 (OR = 1.632, 95%CI: 1.003~2.656) and having cancer-screening experience (OR = 0.581, 95%CI: 0.371~0.909). And 57.66% of participants were willing to pay part of the screening cost among those willing to accept PCS. The residents' average WTP was ¥622, accounting for 20.73% of the total cost (¥3000). Willingness to pay for PCS was positively correlated with male gender, self-employed occupation, residence in Feicheng (than Linqu), higher income, and having cancer-screening experience.

CONCLUSIONS

Most rural residents were willing to accept free PCS, more than half of them were willing to pay part of the ¥3000 total cost, but their WTP-values were low. It is necessary to carry out PCS publicity activities to improve public awareness and participation in precancerous screening. Additionally, for expanding the coverage and sustainability of screening, the appropriate proportion of rural residents to pay for screening costs should be controlled at about 20%, and governments, insurance and other sources are encouraged to actively participate to cover the remaining costs.

Global pattern of trends in incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratio rates related to liver cancer, 1990-2019: a longitudinal analysis based on the global burden of disease study

Background

Liver cancer (LC) is considered as one of the most dominant malignant tumors which ranked 4^th and 6^th in terms of global mortality and incidence, respectively. This work aimed to investigate the global temporal trends in LC mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and its components, with a particular focus on examining long-term effect of human development index (HDI) on these metrics in a 30-year follow-up.

Methods

The age-standardized LC incidence and mortality data were derived from the global burden of disease (GBD) study 2019. We first leveraged joinpoint piecewise linear regression analysis to ascertain time trends in LC incidence, mortality, and MIR complement [1-MIR] and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the rates over the period 1990–2019. Then, the association between the metrics and HDI was explored through longitudinal multilevel models (LMMs).

Results

The incidence rates paralleled the mortality rates worldwide and they had similar significant monotonic decrementing trends with AAPC values of − 1.10% (95% confidence interval (CI): − 1.40, − 0.90%) and − 1.40% (− 1.50, − 1.30%), respectively from 1990 to 2019. The [1-MIR] rates were around 0 and showed an increasing pattern from 1.70 to 8.10 per 100,000 people (AAPC, 4.90%) at the same period of time. Results from the LMMs displayed that the majority of the variation lies at the country level accounted for about 88% of the total variance. Moreover, our analysis supported that the HDI was negatively associated with either incidence or mortality over time (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Our findings highlighted that the global long-term temporal trends of LC incidence and mortality decreased slightly during 1990–2019 which may reflect improved therapeutic strategies and public health interventions. Besides, the low rates of [1-MIR] revealed the five-year relative survival rate was poor implying LC is diagnosed late in its development. Thereby, the policymakers’ focus must be on early screening and detection of liver cancer.

Influence of Demographic Factors on Long-Term Trends of Premature Mortality and Burden Due to Liver Cancer: Findings From a Population-Based Study in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019

Objective

Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer-related death. Understanding how demographic factors influence mortality due to liver cancer is crucial for optimizing disease-control strategies. We aimed to characterize the long-term trends in the mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of liver cancer in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019, and quantitatively analyze the contributions of demographic and non-demographic factors on the mortality of liver cancer.

Methods

Using mortality data from the Mortality Registration System of Pudong New Area, the largest district of Shanghai with a population of permanent resident of 5.68 million, during 1973–2019, we analyzed the temporal trends for the mortality rates and YLL by Joinpoint Regression Program. The difference decomposition method was employed to estimate the increasing mortality rates related to demographic and non-demographic factors.

Results

A total of 21,530 deaths from liver cancer occurred from 1973 to 2019. The crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate by Segi's world standard population (ASMRW) of liver cancer were 26.73/10⁵ person-years and 15.72/10⁵ person-years, respectively. The CMR, ASMRW, and YLL rates of liver cancer showed significantly decreasing trends in males, females and the total population from 1973 to 2019, whereas the upward trends in the YLL were seen in males, females and the total population (all P < 0.05). A significant upward trend was observed in the increased CMR caused by demographic factors, but the changing rate caused by non-demographic factors decreased.

Conclusions

The CMR and ASMRW of liver cancer continually decreased although YLL increased during 1973–2019 in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. The demographic factors, especially aging, might be responsible for the increase in the mortality of liver cancer. More effective prevention strategies tailored to liver cancer are needed to further reduce its disease burden in the elderly population.

Historical Trends in Incidence of Breast Cancer in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Los Angeles, 1973-2012: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of breast cancer incidence in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Los Angeles (LA).

Methods: Data were obtained from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was conducted by joinpoint regression analysis, and the age, period and cohort effects were estimated by age-period-cohort (APC) analysis.

Results: The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) in LA were higher than Shanghai and Hong Kong. During 1988–2012, the ASIRs significantly decreased in white women in LA (AAPC = −0.6%, 95% CI: −0.9% to −0.4%) while increased in Shanghai (2.5%: 2.1%–2.9%) and Hong Kong (2.2%: 2.0%–2.5%). The APC analysis revealed significantly increased effects of age and period, and decreased effect of birth cohort.

Conclusion: Although age and cohort effects were relatively strong, the period effect may be the key factor affecting trends of incidence, which may be caused by increasing exposures to carcinogens and risk factors. Therefore, more effective measures should be carried out promptly to protect high-risk populations such as elder women, to avoid exposures to risk factors of breast cancer.

Long-term trends in the incidence of endometriosis in China from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Trends in the incidence of endometriosis in China remain unknown. The purpose of this study was to examine the trends in the incidence of endometriosis and the effects of age, period, and cohort on them.

METHODS

Trends in endometriosis incidence were estimated using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort on these trends. Endometriosis incidences in China (1990-2019) were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Annual percentage change and average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by joinpoint regression, and relative risks were analyzed using an age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) declined between 1990 and 2019 in China, with an overall AAPC of -1.2% (95% CI: -1.20, -1.10). Compared to 1990, the ASIR in 2019 decreased by almost 30%. Moreover, the joinpoint regression analysis revealed that endometriosis ASIRs showed a downward trend across all age groups. A significant age-related effect was seen for endometriosis incidence among young women aged 15-24 years, which then decreased with advancing age. Consistently, the effect of the period on endometriosis incidence showed a declining trend, and the effect of birth cohort decreased by 0.53 (42.7%) from 1938-1942 to 1998-2002.

CONCLUSIONS

Endometriosis ASIRs declined from 1990 to 2019. The effects of period and birth cohort on endometriosis incidence exhibited a declining trend across all age groups. The effect of age on endometriosis incidence showed an increasing trend before the age of 24, followed by a decreasing trend with subsequent advancing age.

The Benefit of Apparent Diffusion Coefficient in Evaluating the Invasiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

This study aimed to evaluate hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) invasiveness using the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC).

Methods

Eighty-one patients with HCC confirmed by pathology and examined by preoperative magnetic resonance imaging diffusion-weighted imaging from January 2015 to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical and pathological data were recorded. The minimum ADC (ADCmin), average ADC (ADCmean), and the ratio of ADCmean to normal-appearing hepatic parenchyma ADC (ADCnahp) were assessed. The associations between clinical information, ADC value, and HCC invasiveness (microvascular invasion [MVI], tumor differentiation, and Ki-67 expression) were evaluated statistically. Independent risk factors related to HCC invasiveness were screened using binary logistic regression, and the diagnostic efficiency was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and its area under the curve (AUC) value.

Results

Tumor size was related to HCC MVI and tumor differentiation (P < 0.05). HCC MVI was associated with ADCmin, ADCmean, and the ADCmean-to-ADCnahp ratio (all P < 0.05) with AUC values of 0.860, 0.860, and 0.909, respectively. If these were combined with tumor size, the AUC value increased to 0.912. The degree of tumor differentiation was associated with ADCmin, ADCmean, and the ADCmean-to-ADCnahp ratio (all P < 0.05) with AUC values of 0.719, 0.708, and 0.797, respectively. If these were combined with tumor size, the AUC value increased to 0.868. Ki-67 expression was associated with ADCmin, ADCmean, and the ADCmean-to-ADCnahp ratio (all P < 0.05) with AUC values of 0.731, 0.747, and 0.746, respectively. Combined them, the AUC value increased to 0.763.

Conclusions

The findings indicated that the ADC value has significant potential for the non-invasive preoperative evaluation of HCC invasiveness.

An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005-2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model

This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20-35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20-35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.

Analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Zhejiang, China based on the age-period-cohort model (2004-2018)

Objective

To predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China.

Methods

The data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes.

Results

The AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20–35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend.

Conclusions

The results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11050-x.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effects on the Prevalence, Incidence and Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma from 2008 to 2017 in Tianjin, China

Objectives: China is the country most afflicted by hepatocellular carcinoma in the world. However, little is known about the epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma in China. This study aimed to examine the trends of the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma in China, and to investigate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the epidemiological trend. Methods: The data were obtained from the Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance claims database (2003-2017) in Tianjin, China, which covers 5.95 million individuals. The average annual percentage change of the prevalence, incidence, and mortality were accessed using joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were produced to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort. Results: The hepatocellular carcinoma prevalence rate increased by 5.13% annually from 20.12/100,000 in 2008 to 30.49/100,000 in 2017, and the incidence rate was almost unchanged, from 13.91/100,000 in 2008 to 14.09/100,000 in 2017, but mortality decreased by 1.80% annually from 8.18/100,000 in 2008 to 7.34/100,000 in 2017. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed that the prevalence rate was remarkably increased from age 25, peaked in age 60, and decreased at age 70 and over. In the period index, the prevalence rate increased gradually from 2008 to 2016, and decreased a little in 2017. In the cohort index, the prevalence rate decreased approximately linearly from the 1925 cohort to the 1990 cohort. The result for the incidence was similar to the prevalence. The mortality rate increased approximately linearly from age 45 to 85, decreased from the 1925 cohort to the 1990 cohort, but it changed a little with the change of period. Conclusions: The findings of this study could inform the necessity of conducting earlier screening for high-risk individuals and improving the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma, which may also help to predict future changes in hepatocellular carcinoma epidemiology.

Temporal Trends in Notification and Mortality of Tuberculosis in China, 2004-2019: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in China and worldwide. In this article, we used a joinpoint regression model to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) of TB notification and mortality in China from 2004 to 2019. We also used an age–period–cohort (APC) model based on the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to simultaneously distinguish the age, period and cohort effects on TB notification and mortality in China. A statistically downward trend was observed in TB notification and mortality over the period, with AAPCs of −4.2% * (−4.9%, −3.4%) and −5.8% (−7.5%, −4.0%), respectively. A bimodal pattern of the age effect was observed, peaking in the young adult (aged 15–34) and elderly (aged 50–84) groups. More specifically, the TB notification risk populations were people aged 20–24 years and 70–74 years; the TB mortality risk population was adults over the age of 60. The period effect suggested that TB notification and mortality risks were nearly stable over the past 15 years. The cohort effect on both TB notification and mortality presented a continuously decreasing trend, and it was no longer a risk factor after 1978. All in all, the age effect should be paid more attention.

Correlation and Survival Analysis of Distant Metastasis Site and Prognosis in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

To investigate the prognostic factors and survival analysis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with distant metastasis.

Methods

The clinical data of 3,126 patients with distant metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma from 2010 to 2015 were extracted from SEER database, and the correlation between the location of distant metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma and prognosis was retrospectively analyzed. Patients were grouped according to different metastatic sites. The clinical characteristics of each group were compared by chi-square test, the survival curve was drawn by Kaplan-Meier method, Log-rank test was used for univariate analysis, and Cox regression for multivariate analysis. And use propensity score matching (PSM) to reduce differences in baseline characteristics.

Results

Before PSM, the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma with lung metastasis is worse than that of patients without lung metastasis. And there was no statistically significant difference with or without bone metastases.Patients with one type of organ metastasis had better prognosis than those with multiple organ metastasis. Among patients with organ metastasis, bone metastasis has a better prognosis than patients with lung metastasis. After PSM, patients with HCC with bone metastases had a worse prognosis than those without bone metastases (P<0.05). Univariate analysis showed that the degree of tumor differentiation, T stage, N stage, primary tumor and metastatic surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, tumor size, single organ metastasis, the number of metastatic organs, and the combination of metastatic organs were related to the prognosis of patients with distant metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma (P < 0.05). Multiariate analysis showed that age ≥52 years old, male, low degree of tumor differentiation, N1 stage, no primary surgery, no chemoradiotherapy, tumor size > 6cm, and multi-organ metastasis were independent influencing factors for poor prognosis in patients with metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.

Conclusion

The lung is the most common site of distant metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma. Single organ metastasis has better prognosis than multiple organ metastasis. Age ≥52 years old, male, low degree of tumor differentiation, N1 stage, no primary surgery, no chemoradiotherapy, tumor size > 6cm, and multi-organ metastasis were independent influencing factors for poor overall survival and cancer-specific survival prognosis in patients with metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma.

Biejiajian Pill Inhibits Carcinogenesis and Metastasis via the Akt/GSK-3β/Snail Signaling Pathway in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is among the most usual cancers globally. In China, Biejiajian pill (BJJP), Traditional Chinese Medicine clinical prescription, is broadly utilized for the prevention and therapy of HCC. However, the mechanisms by which BJJP exerts its effects on the prevention of tumor invasion and metastasis are still largely unknown. In this study, in vitro multiple hepatic cancer cell lines and an in vivo xenograft mice model were used to validate the preventive effects and molecular mechanisms of BJJP in HCC. We established that BJJP significantly repressed the proliferation, metastasis and infiltration of HCC cells. Furthermore, BJJP remarkably suppressed HCC cell migration, as well as invasion via epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) by modulating Snail expression, which was associated with the repression of Akt/GSK-3β/Snail signaling axis activation. In vivo HCC xenograft results indicated that BJJP delayed HCC development and efficiently inhibited lung metastasis. Taken together, BJJP was shown to be an effective therapeutic agent against HCC through repression of the Akt/GSK-3β/Snail signaling cascade and EMT.

Liver cancer mortality over six decades in an epidemic area: what we have learned

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Liver cancer is one of the most dominant malignant tumors in the world. The trends of liver cancer mortality over the past six decades have been tracked in the epidemic region of Qidong, China. Using epidemiological tools, we explore the dynamic changes in age-standardized rates to characterize important aspects of liver cancer etiology and prevention.

METHODS

Mortality data of liver cancer in Qidong from 1958 to 1971 (death retrospective survey) and from 1972 to 2017 (cancer registration) were tabulated for the crude rate (CR), and age-standardized rate and age-birth cohorts. The average annual percentage change was calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

RESULTS

The natural death rate during 1958-2017 decreased from 9‰ to 5.4‰ and then increased to 8‰ as the population aged; cancer mortality rates rose continuously from 57/105 to 240/105. Liver cancer mortality increased from 20/105 to 80/105, and then dropped to less than 52/105 in 2017. Liver cancer deaths in 1972-2017 accounted for 30.53% of all cancers, with a CR of 60.48/105, age-standardized rate China (ASRC) of 34.78/105, and ASRW (world) of 45.71/105. Other key features were the CR for males and females of 91.86/105 and 29.92/105, respectively, with a sex ratio of 3.07:1. Period analysis showed that the ASRs for mortality of the age groups under 54 years old had a significant decreasing trend. Importantly, birth cohort analysis showed that the mortality rate of liver cancer in 40-44, 35-39, 30-34, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19 years cohort decreased considerably, but the rates in 70-74, and 75+ increased.

CONCLUSIONS

The crude mortality rate of liver cancer in Qidong has experienced trends from lower to higher levels, and from continued increase at a high plateau to most recently a gradual decline, and a change greatest in younger people. Many years of comprehensive prevention and intervention measures have influenced the decline of the liver cancer epidemic in this area. The reduction of intake levels of aflatoxin might be one of the most significant factors as evidenced by the dramatic decline of exposure biomarkers in this population during the past three decades.

Trend of the mortality of major liver diseases and its impact on life expectancy in China from 2006 to 2017

BACKGROUND

Liver diseases are the serious cause of death in China. We aim to describe the trends and disparities of major liver disease mortality rates and the loss of life expectancy (LLE) in China.

METHODS

Annual percentage change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model. LLE was calculated using cause eliminated life table.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2017, the overall age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of liver cirrhosis lightly declined (AAPC: -2.97%), whereas the ASMR of viral hepatitis and liver cancer remained stable. Viral hepatitis (AAPC: -4.36%) and liver cirrhosis (AAPC: -4.35%) ASMRs both declined for females. The highest ASMRs of viral hepatitis and liver cirrhosis were in the west region, while that of liver cancer was in the middle region. The ASMRs of liver cirrhosis in the middle region and liver cancer in the east region significantly decreased. The means of LLE on viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer were 0.05, 0.1 and 0.46 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of liver diseases is still severe and there are disparities between genders and different regions in China. Accurate early diagnostic approaches for high-risk populations should be established to eliminate the burden of liver diseases.

Transcription factor YY1 enhances the stemness of lung cancer cells by stabilizing hypoxia factor HIF-1α under a hypoxic microenvironment

The hypoxic microenvironment can facilitate the tumor progression, and transcription factor YY1 holds promoting effects in various tumors. This work aims to investigate whether YY1 is involved in hypoxia-induced stemness of lung cancer cells. We showed that hypoxic microenvironment induced the expression of HIF-1α and YY1, and the stemness of lung cancer cells, which was attenuated by YY1 knockdown. Additionally, we found that YY1 regulates the hypoxia-induced stemness in a HIF-1α-dependent manner, but independent on p53 expression. Further analysis revealed that YY1 physically interacted with HIF-1α protein and stabilized HIF-1α protein. Our work indicates a novel YY1/HIF-1α axis regulating the stemness of lung cancer cells.

The mortality of lung cancer attributable to smoking among adults in China and the United States during 1990-2017

Background

Statistical data on the burden and relevant risk factors of lung cancer are valuable for policy‐making. This study aimed to compare the mortality of lung cancer attributable to smoking stratified by sex and age among adults in China and the United States (US).

Methods

We extracted age‐standardized mortality rates of lung cancer during 1990‐2017 using the comparative risk assessment framework of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. We performed an age‐period‐cohort analysis to estimate time trend of lung cancer mortality attributable to smoking.

Results

During 1990‐2017, the age‐standardized mortality rate of lung cancer was increasing in China but decreasing in the US for both sexes. The mortality attributable to smoking in China showed a generally increasing trend, while a continuous decrease was observed in the US. The age‐period‐cohort analysis showed a similar trend of age effect among adults between China and the US: the mortality substantially increased from the 30‐34 to 80‐84 age group and subsequently decreased in the 90‐94 age group. However, the period effect rapidly increased in Chinese adults during 1990‐2017, while it tended to be stable in the US although it was still slightly increasing in women. The cohort effect generally peaked in the earlier cohort born in 1902‐1906 in the two countries.

Conclusions

During 1990‐2017, the lung cancer mortality attributable to smoking and the period effect are generally increasing in Chinese adults; the mortality attributable to smoking is decreasing in the US adults, but the period effect tends to be stable. The rapid aging and prevalence of smoking may intensify the increasing mortality of lung cancer in China.