Cut-Off Values in the Prediction of Success in Olympic Distance Triathlon

Race Dynamics in Triathlon Mixed-Team-Relay Meaningfully Changes with The New Regulation Towards Paris 2024

Mixed-Team-Relay (MTR) triathlon is a novel Olympic discipline whose performance determinants and tactical behaviors have barely been studied. Additionally, a regulatory change has been made to the male and female relay order for the Paris 2024 Olympics. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the performance determinants and race dynamics as a function of competitive level on the new regulated MTR triathlon. Results from 129 national teams, (516 elite triathletes) across five MTR World Triathlon Series and two MTR European Championships in 2022 and 2023, were analyzed. Split times, average speeds, time behind the race leader (gap), partial and finishing positions, pack position as well as the rank positions of every segment, relay leg, and overall race were computed. Decision tree analyses were conducted as a predictive method for the overall results, and correspondence analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the different relay legs and segments and the finishing positions. The performance of the fourth leg was the most relevant for overall result (30%), as well as the fourth running leg (16%) and the female legs performance (7%). Medallist relay teams were characterized by displaying a differential speed lower than 0.5 and 0.83 km/h, respectively, from the best-ranking athletes in the Legs 1 and 4. Furthermore, staying in the front pack after the second swimming leg showed a great relationship with achieving a medal position. New MTR triathlon rules shift race dynamics, emphasizing individual efforts in cycling and swimming, while maintaining the crucial importance of running.

Power Profile during Cycling in World Triathlon Series and Olympic Games

This study aimed to analyze the power profile (PP) during the cycling segment of international-level triathletes in the World Triathlon Series (WTS) and Olympics and to evaluate the influence of circuit type, race distance (Sprint or Olympic distance) and race dynamics on the development of the cycling leg and the final race position. Four male triathletes participated in the study. Twenty races were analyzed using geolocation technology and power-meter data to analyze PP, race dynamics, and course characteristics. Before the races, incremental tests of volitional exhaustion with gas analysis were performed to determine power intensity zones. Nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests and correlation analyses were conducted to identify differences and relationships between various variables. A correlation between the time spent above maximal aerobic power (MAP) and dangerous curves per kilometer (r = 0.46; p < 0.05) and bike split result (BSR) (r = -0.50; p < 0.05) was observed. Also, moderate correlation was found between BSR and the final race position (r = 0.46; p < 0.01). No differences were found between sprint and Olympic distance races in any variable. Power output variability, influenced by technical circuit segments, remains the main characteristic in international short-distance races. The results of the present study suggest that the triathletes who are better adapted to intermittent high intensity efforts perform better cycling legs at international high-level races.

Cycling is the most important predictive split discipline in professional Ironman® 70.3 triathletes

Introduction

Our study examined 16,611 records of professional triathletes from 163 Ironman® 70.3 races across 97 countries (2004-2020). The aim was to identify the most predictive discipline-swim, bike, or run-for overall race time.

Methods

We used correlation matrices to compare the dependent variable "finish time" with independent variables "swim time," "bike time," and "run time." This analysis was conducted separately for male and female athletes. Additionally, univariate and multiple linear regression models assessed the strength of these associations.

Results

The results indicated that "bike time" had the strongest correlation with finish time (0.85), followed by "run time" (0.75 for females, 0.82 for males) and "swim time" (0.46 for females, 0.63 for males). Regression models confirmed "bike time" as the strongest predictor of overall race time (R² = 0.8), with "run time" and "swim time" being less predictive.

Discussion

The study concludes that in Ironman 70.3 races, "bike time" is the most significant predictor of overall race performance for both sexes, suggesting a focus on cycling in training and competition strategies. It also highlights a smaller performance gap between genders in swimming than in cycling or running.

What is the Most Important Leg and Discipline in Triathlon Mixed Team Relays?

This study aimed to determine the importance of the different relay legs and sport disciplines in the overall result of the triathlon Mixed Team Relay (MTR) events. The study analysed the results of 80 Mixed Team Relay triathlon teams (n = 320 professional triathletes) corresponding to the top ten finishers at the World Championships in Hamburg from 2013 to 2020. Split times, average speeds, time behind the race leader (gap), partial and finishing positions, as well as the rank positions of every segment, relay leg, and overall race were computed. Decision tree analyses were conducted as a predictive method for the overall results, and correspondence analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the different relay legs and segments and the finishing positions. Running was the variable with the greatest importance (32%) in the overall result, followed by female team members (17%) and the third relay leg (17%). The swimming segments (1%) and the fourth relay leg (1%) had the lowest relevance. Medallist relay teams were characterised by cycling and running faster than 10.99 m/s and 5.59 m/s, respectively, with time gaps of less than 43 seconds by the end of the third relay leg. A reliable and accurate prediction model for the medallists' and finalists' team positions in the Mixed Team Relay triathlon was obtained. The running disciplines and performance of female team members, especially in the third leg, were ascertained to be the most significant determinants for the overall Mixed Team Relay result.

Predicting overall performance in Ironman 70.3 age group triathletes through split disciplines

Knowing which discipline contributes most to a triathlon performance is important to plan race pacing properly. To date, we know that the running split is the most decisive discipline in the Olympic distance triathlon, and the cycling split is the most important discipline in the full-distance Ironman^® triathlon. However, we have no knowledge of the Ironman^® 70.3. This study intended to determine the most crucial discipline in age group athletes competing from 2004 to 2020 in a total of 787 Ironman^® 70.3 races. A total of 823,459 athletes (198,066 women and 625,393 men) from 240 different countries were analyzed and recorded in 5-year age groups, from 18 to 75 + years. Correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and two-way ANOVA were applied, considering p < 0.05. No differences in the regression analysis between the contributions of the swimming, cycling, and running splits could be found for all age groups. However, the correlation analysis showed stronger associations of the cycling and running split times than the swimming split times with overall race times and a smaller difference in swimming performance between males and females in age groups 50 years and older. For age group triathletes competing in Ironman^® 70.3, running and cycling were more predictive than swimming for overall race performance. There was a progressive reduction in the performance gap between men and women aged 50 years and older. This information may aid triathletes and coaches in planning their race tactics in an Ironman^® 70.3 race.

Intensified training before Olympic-distance triathlon in recreational triathletes: "Less pain, more gain"

Objectives

To examine 1) the contribution of physiological performance variables to Olympic-distance (OD) triathlon performance, and 2) the links between an 8-wk intensified training plus competition preceding the main OD triathlon race and the changes in the physiological status in triathletes.

Study Design

An observational longitudinal study.

Methods

Endurance performance variables during maximal incremental running and cycling tests, and average velocity during an all-out 400-m swimming performance test (V400) were assessed before (T1) and after (T2) the intensified training in 7 recreational-level triathletes.

Results

Overall main OD triathlon time was extremely largely (r = -0.94; P = 0.01) correlated with peak running velocity (PRV). Best correlation magnitude between exercise modes' partial race times and the corresponding specific physiological criterion tests was observed for swimming (r = -0.97; P < 0.001). Improvement in V400 (2.9%), PRV (1.5%) and submaximal running blood lactate concentration (17%) was observed along the training period, whereas no changes were observed in the cycling endurance performance variables. Higher volume of training plus competition at high intensity zones during cycling, running and swimming were associated with lower improvements or declines in their corresponding exercise mode-specific criterion performance variables (r = 0.81-0.90; P = 0.005-0.037).

Conclusion

Results indicate that: 1) PRV is highly associated with overall OD triathlon performance, and 2) spending much time at high relative intensities during swimming, cycling or running may lead, in a dose-response manner, to lower improvements or decreases on those exercise-specific physiological performance variables. This may favor the emergence of overreaching or diminished performance.

Elite Triathlete Profiles in Draft-Legal Triathlons as a Basis for Talent Identification

Draft-legal triathlons are the main short-distance races worldwide and are those on which talent-identification programs are usually focused. Performance in these races depends on multiple factors; however, many investigations do not focus on elite triathletes. Therefore, the aim of this narrative review was to carry out a systematic literature search to define the elite female and male triathlete profiles and their competition demands in draft-legal triathlons. This will allow us to summarize the main determinant factors of high-level triathletes as a basis for talent detection. A comprehensive review of Web of Science and Scopus was performed using the search strategy: Triathl* and (performance or competition or profile) and (elite or professional or “high performance” or “high level” or talent). A total of 1325 research documents were obtained, and after screening following the criteria, only 83 articles were selected. After data synthesis, elite triathlete aspects such as age, physiological, anthropometric, and psychosocial profile or competition demands were studied in the scientific literature. Thus, it is essential that when implementing talent identification programs, these factors must be considered. However, constant updating is needed due the continuous regulatory changes and the need of triathletes to adapt to these new competition demands.

The beginning of success: Performance trends and cut-off values for junior and the U23 triathlon categories

Background

This study sought to determine cut-off values for each triathlon discipline to achieve podium in Junior (short distance; 750 m swim, 20 km cycle and 5 km run) and U23 (standard/Olympic distance; 1.5 km swim, 40 km cycle and 10 km run) triathlon events. Additionally, we aimed to investigate which discipline has the largest relationship with overall Junior and U23 triathlon performance, and the effect of sex and time in performance trends.

Methods

We included all data from Junior and U23 official races (International Triathlon Federation; ITU) of Junior (n = 3,314 finishes) and U23 (n = 5,092 finishes) categories held from 1999 to 2018.

Results

Men were significantly faster than women in both Junior (11.13%) and U23 (12.28%) categories. Swimming and cycling times were faster in 2009-2018 than in the 1999-2008 decade for men (3.36%; 6.49%), women junior (6.50%; 7.09%), men (0.15%; 3.46%) and women U23 (1.61%; 3.31%) respectively. Cycling was the discipline with the greatest influence on overall triathlon performance in Junior and U23 categories, regardless of sex or rank position. The cut-off values for the Junior category were (men/women): swimming, 9.2/9.4 min; cycling, 31.9/38.2 min; running, 16.8/18.9 min. U23's cut-off values were (men/women): swim, 18.0/19.4 min, cycling: 63.4/70.1 min; run, 33.9/38.7 min.

Conclusion

Cycling was the discipline with the greatest influence on overall performance for both men and women in Junior and U23 categories. Moreover, swimming and cycling performances increased over the years for both sexes.

Contribution of Segments to Overall Result in Elite Triathletes: Sprint Distance

As an alternative to analysing the contribution of performance in specific segments of a triathlon to the overall result as measured in terms of time or position, which has several limitations, previous studies have instead analysed the performance indicator in triathlon. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to analyse the relationship between performance in specific segments and overall performance in terms of sprint distance in elite triathletes through the triathlon performance indicator, instead of using time or position. The official sprint distance results from World Triathlon Series elite events from 2012 to 2019 were examined. In total, 2144 entries were considered, 1143 of which were men and 1001 were women. Performance in the cycling segment presents the best concordance with the overall performance for both elite men (ICC_a = 0.871, IC95% = (0.711–0.927)) and elite women (ICC_a = 0.907, IC95% = (0.875–0.929)). Although the performance in the running segment does not show the best concordance with the overall performance, the position in this segment does better explain the overall position, especially in elite men and in draft-legal races. These results can support coaches and athletes to identify a specific profile of the strengths and weaknesses of triathletes in competitions, in comparison to their rivals, over a specific distance.

What Is the Best Discipline to Predict Overall Triathlon Performance? An Analysis of Sprint, Olympic, Ironman® 70.3, and Ironman® 140.6

Objective: To analyze the proportion of dedication in each triathlon discipline (swimming, cycling, and running) and the importance of each separate discipline to predict overall performance of elite triathletes across different triathlon distances.

Methods: Data from 2015 to 2020 (n = 16,667) from official races and athletes in Sprint, Olympic distance, IM 70.3 (Half-Ironman distance), and IM 140.6 (Full-Ironman distance) competitions were included. The proportion of each discipline was calculated individually and compared using general linear models by event distance, sex, and performance level. Automatic linear regression models were applied for each distance considering overall performance as the dependent variable.

Results: A within-distance analysis showed that the best predictor for Sprint is cycling, for Olympic is swimming, for IM 70.3 is cycling, and for IM 140.6 is running. A between-distance analysis revealed that swimming is a better predictor in Olympic distance than in other triathlon distances. Cycling is a poor predictor for overall performance in IM 140.6, and the importance of running to predict overall performance is the highest in IM 140.6 and diminishes with decreasing race distance.

Conclusion: Each discipline represents a different relative portion and importance to predict overall performance depending on the triathlon distance. Swimming is the most important predictor discipline in Sprint- and Olympic-distance triathlon, cycling in IM 70.3, and running in IM 140.6.