Tuberculosis and Non-Communicable Disease Multimorbidity: An Analysis of the World Health Survey in 48 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Tuberculosis and diabetes mellitus: The complexity of the comorbid interactions

The double burden of tuberculosis (TB) and diabetes mellitus (DM) represents a major public health challenge that demands urgent and integrated approaches. The interplay between these two chronic conditions presents unique clinical and public health management challenges, as well as social and economic implications. We explored the bidirectional relationship between TB and DM, emphasizing how DM increases susceptibility to TB and complicates its management, while TB may exacerbate glycaemic control in diabetic patients. This review underscores the challenges associated with the management of both diseases, obstacles in screening TB patients for DM and TB preventive therapy for DM since inadequate glycaemic control can impact treatment outcomes. Several studies have investigated the disease interplay; however, the results have been equivocal, and this may be exerting negative impacts on the disease prevention and treatment. TB-diabetes comorbidity has been linked to poor treatment outcomes whereas TB prevention in people with DM at present is a dilemma. In addition to highlighting how urgent it is to address this comorbidity, this review offers a road map for better prevention, treatment, and control of several factors underlying the TB-diabetes syndemic interaction.

Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

Landscaping tuberculosis multimorbidity: findings from a cross-sectional study in India

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity, the concurrent presence of two or more chronic conditions is an emerging public health challenge. Till date, most of the research have focused on the presence and interaction of selected co-morbidities in tuberculosis (TB). There exist a critical knowledge gap on the magnitude of multimorbidity among TB patients and its impact on health outcomes.

METHODS

We undertook a cross-sectional study to assess the prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity among newly diagnosed TB patients in two states of India. A total of 323 patients were interviewed using a structured multimorbidity assessment questionnaire for primary care (MAQ-PC). MAQ-PC is already validated for Indian population and elicits 22 chronic conditions. We defined TB multimorbidity as the co-existence of TB with one or more chronic conditions and identified commonly occurring dyads (TB + single condition) and triads (TB + two conditions).

RESULTS

More than half (52%) of TB patients reported multimorbidity. Among dyads, depression, diabetes mellitus (DM), acid peptic disease (APD), hypertension, chronic alcoholism, arthritis and chronic back ache (CBA) were the most common co-occurring conditions while 'DM + arthritis', 'depression + APD', 'depression + DM' were the most commonly occurring triads among TB patients. Factors such as increasing age, low levels of education, alcohol abusers, drug-resistant TB and having health insurance were significantly associated with multimorbidity among TB patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest high prevalence of multimorbidity among newly diagnosed TB patients in India. The presence of concordant and discordant conditions with TB may increase the health complexity, thus necessitating appropriate care protocols. Given, the current situation, wherein TB and non-communicable diseases (NCD) services are delivered through collaborative framework between programmes, there is a need for addressing multimorbidity at the healthcare delivery level.

Comorbidity increases the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis: a nested case-control study using multi-source big data

BACKGROUND

Some medical conditions may increase the risk of developing pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB); however, no systematic study on PTB-associated comorbidities and comorbidity clusters has been undertaken.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was conducted from 2013 to 2017 using multi-source big data. We defined cases as patients with incident PTB, and we matched each case with four event-free controls using propensity score matching (PSM). Comorbidities diagnosed prior to PTB were defined with the International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10). The longitudinal relationships between multimorbidity burden and PTB were analyzed using a generalized estimating equation. The associations between PTB and 30 comorbidities were examined using conditional logistic regression, and the comorbidity clusters were identified using network analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4265 cases and 17,060 controls were enrolled during the study period. A total of 849 (19.91%) cases and 1141 (6.69%) controls were multimorbid before the index date. Having 1, 2, and ≥ 3 comorbidities was associated with an increased risk of PTB (aOR 2.85-5.16). Fourteen out of thirty comorbidities were significantly associated with PTB (aOR 1.28-7.27), and the associations differed by sex and age. Network analysis identified three major clusters, mainly in the respiratory, circulatory, and endocrine/metabolic systems, in PTB cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Certain comorbidities involving multiple systems may significantly increase the risk of PTB. Enhanced awareness and surveillance of comorbidity are warranted to ensure early prevention and timely control of PTB.

Distinct healthcare utilization profiles of high healthcare use tuberculosis survivors: A latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

Recent data have demonstrated that healthcare use after treatment for respiratory tuberculosis (TB) remains elevated in the years following treatment completion. However, it remains unclear which TB survivors are high healthcare users and whether any variation exists within this population. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to identify distinct profiles of high healthcare-use TB survivors to help inform post-treatment support and care.

METHODS

Using linked health administrative data from British Columbia, Canada, we identified foreign-born individuals who completed treatment for incident respiratory TB between 1990 and 2019. We defined high healthcare-use TB survivors as those in the top 10% of annual emergency department visits, hospital admissions, or general practitioner visits among the study population during the five-year period immediately following TB treatment completion. We then used latent class analysis to categorize the identified high healthcare-use TB survivors into subgroups.

RESULTS

Of the 1,240 people who completed treatment for respiratory TB, 258 (20.8%) people were identified as high post- TB healthcare users. Latent class analysis results in a 2-class solution. Class 1 (n = 196; 76.0%) included older individuals (median age 71.0; IQR 59.8, 79.0) with a higher probability of pre-existing hypertension and diabetes (41.3% and 33.2%, respectively). Class 2 (n = 62; 24.0%) comprised of younger individuals (median age 31.0; IQR 27.0, 41.0) with a high probability (61.3%) of immigrating to Canada within five years of their TB diagnosis and a low probability (11.3%) of moderate to high continuity of primary care.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that foreign-born high healthcare-use TB survivors in a high-resource setting may be categorized into distinct profiles to help guide the development of person-centred care strategies targeting the long-term health impacts TB survivors face.

Managing Comorbidities, Determinants and Disability at Start and End of TB Treatment under Routine Program Conditions in China

Many patients with tuberculosis (TB) have comorbidities, risk determinants and disability that co-exist at diagnosis, during and after TB treatment. We conducted an observational cohort study in 11 health facilities in China to assess under routine program conditions (i) the burden of these problems at the start and end of TB treatment and (ii) whether referral mechanisms for further care were functional. There were 603 patients registered with drug-susceptible TB who started TB treatment: 84% were symptomatic, 14% had diabetes, 14% had high blood pressure, 19% smoked cigarettes, 10% drank excess alcohol and in 45% the 6 min walking test (6MWT) was abnormal. Five patients were identified with mental health disorders. There were 586 (97%) patients who successfully completed TB treatment six months later. Of these, 18% were still symptomatic, 12% had diabetes (the remainder with diabetes failed to complete treatment), 5% had high blood pressure, 5% smoked cigarettes, 1% drank excess alcohol and 25% had an abnormal 6MWT. Referral mechanisms for the care of comorbidities and determinants worked well except for mental health and pulmonary rehabilitation for disability. There is need for more programmatic-related studies in other countries to build the evidence base for care of TB-related conditions and disability.

Multimorbidity prevalence and chronic disease patterns among tuberculosis survivors in a high-income setting

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity is the presence of two or more chronic health conditions. Tuberculosis (TB) survivors are known to have higher prevalence of multimorbidity, although prevalence estimates from high-income low-TB incidence jurisdictions are not available and potential differences in the patterns of chronic disease among TB survivors with multimorbidity are poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to (1) compare the prevalence of multimorbidity among TB survivors with matched non-TB controls in a high-income setting; (2) assess the robustness of aim 1 analyses to different modelling strategies, unmeasured confounding, and misclassification bias; and (3) among people with multimorbidity, elucidate chronic disease patterns specific to TB survivors.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study of people immigrating to British Columbia, Canada, 1985-2015, using health administrative data. Participants were divided into two groups: people diagnosed with TB (TB survivors) and people not diagnosed with TB (non-TB controls) in British Columbia. Coarsened exact matching (CEM) balanced demographic, immigration, and socioeconomic covariates between TB survivors and matched non-TB controls. Our primary outcome was multimorbidity, defined as ≥2 chronic diseases from the Elixhauser comorbidity index.

RESULTS

In the CEM-matched sample (n=1962 TB survivors; n=1962 non-TB controls), we estimated that 21.2% of TB survivors (n=416), compared with 12% of non-TB controls (n=236), had multimorbidity. In our primary analysis, we found a double-adjusted prevalence ratio of 1.74 (95% CI: 1.49-2.05) between TB survivors and matched non-TB controls for multimorbidity. Among people with multimorbidity, differences were observed in chronic disease frequencies between TB survivors and matched controls.

CONCLUSION

TB survivors had a 74% higher prevalence of multimorbidity compared with CEM-matched non-TB controls. TB-specific multimorbidity patterns were observed through differences in chronic disease frequencies between the matched samples. These findings suggest a need for TB-specific multimorbidity interventions in high-income settings such as Canada. We suggest TB survivorship as a framework for developing person-centred interventions for multimorbidity among TB survivors.

Multimorbidity of cardiometabolic diseases: a cross-sectional study of patterns, clusters and associated risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

To determine the patterns of cardiometabolic multimorbidity and associated risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

DESIGN

We used data from the WHO STEPwise approach to non-communicable disease risk factor surveillance cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2014 and 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

The participants comprised 39, 658 respondents aged 15-69 years randomly selected from nine SSA countries using a multistage stratified sampling design.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Using latent class analysis and agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms, we analysed the clustering of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) including high blood sugar, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) such as heart attack, angina and stroke. Clusters of lifestyle risk factors: harmful salt intake, physical inactivity, obesity, tobacco and alcohol use were also computed. Prevalence ratios (PR) from modified Poisson regression were used to assess the association of cardiometabolic multimorbidity with sociodemographic and lifestyle risk factors.

RESULTS

Two distinct classes of CMDs were identified: relatively healthy group with minimal CMDs (95.2%) and cardiometabolic multimorbidity class comprising participants with high blood sugar, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension and CVDs (4.8%). The clusters of lifestyle risk factors included alcohol, tobacco and harmful salt consumption (27.0%), and physical inactivity and obesity (5.8%). The cardiometabolic multimorbidity cluster exhibited unique sociodemographic and lifestyle risk profiles. Being female (PR=1.7, 95% CI (1.5 to 2.0), middle-aged (35-54 years) (3.9 (95% CI 3.2 to 4.8)), compared with age 15-34 years, employed (1.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.4)), having tertiary education (2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 3.3)), vs no formal education and clustering of physical inactivity and obesity (2.4 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.8)) were associated with a higher likelihood of cardiometabolic multimorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and lifestyle risk factors cluster in distinct patterns with a disproportionate burden among women, middle-aged, persons in high socioeconomic positions, and those with sedentary lifestyles and obesity. These results provide insights for health systems response in SSA to focus on these clusters as potential targets for integrated care.

Gender differences in tuberculosis patients with comorbidity: A cross-sectional study using national surveillance data and national health insurance claims data in South Korea

The coexistence of tuberculosis and other chronic diseases complicates disease management. Particularly, the lack of information on the difference in the prevalence of chronic diseases in tuberculosis based on age and gender can hinder the establishment of appropriate public health strategies. This study aimed to identify age- and gender-based differences in the prevalence of chronic diseases as comorbidities in patients with tuberculosis. An anonymized data source was established by linking the national health insurance claims data to the Korean national tuberculosis surveillance data from 2014 to 2018. The prevalence of chronic diseases was stratified by gender and age (age groups: ≤64, 65-74, and ≥75 years), and the differences in the prevalence of chronic diseases were analyzed by multinomial logistic regression and classified using the Charlson Comorbidity Index. A total of 148,055 patients with tuberculosis (61,199 women and 86,856 men) were included in this study. Among the patients aged ≥65 years, 48.2% were female and 38.1% were male. In this age group, the probability of chronic disease comorbidity was higher in female patients than in male patients. The prevalence of congestive heart failure and dementia as comorbidities in patients with tuberculosis increased more drastically with age in women than in men. Thus, the present study confirmed gender and age differences in the distribution of comorbidities among patients with tuberculosis. A more comprehensive gender-responsive approach for patients with tuberculosis and chronic diseases is required to alleviate the double burden of infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases in an aging society.

Prevalence and risks of tuberculosis multimorbidity in low-income and middle-income countries: a meta-review

OBJECTIVES

Co-occurrence of tuberculosis (TB) with other chronic conditions (TB multimorbidity) increases complexity of management and adversely affects health outcomes. We aimed to map the prevalence of the co-occurrence of one or more chronic conditions in people with TB and associated health risks by systematically reviewing previously published systematic reviews.

DESIGN

Systematic review of systematic reviews (meta-review).

SETTING

Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

PAPERS

We searched in Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Social Sciences Citation Index, Science Citation Index, Emerging Sources Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation Index, and the WHO Global Index Medicus from inception to 23 October 2020, contacted authors and reviewed reference lists. Pairs of independent reviewers screened titles, abstracts and full texts, extracted data and assessed the included reviews' quality (AMSTAR2). We included systematic reviews reporting data for people in LMICs with TB multimorbidity and synthesised them narratively. We excluded reviews focused on children or specific subgroups (eg, incarcerated people).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence or risk of TB multimorbidity (primary); any measure of burden of disease (secondary).

RESULTS

From the 7557 search results, 54 were included, representing >6 296 000 people with TB. We found that the most prevalent conditions in people with TB were depression (45.19%, 95% CI: 38.04% to 52.55%, 25 studies, 4903 participants, I²=96.28%, high quality), HIV (31.81%, 95% CI: 27.83% to 36.07%, 68 studies, 62 696 participants, I²=98%, high quality) and diabetes mellitus (17.7%, 95% CI: 15.1% to 20.0.5%, 48 studies, 48,036 participants, I²=98.3%, critically low quality).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several chronic conditions that co-occur in a significant proportion of people with TB. Although limited by varying quality and gaps in the literature, this first meta-review of TB multimorbidity highlights the magnitude of additional ill health burden due to chronic conditions on people with TB.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020209012.

Hepatitis B Virus and Tuberculosis Are Associated with Increased Noncommunicable Disease Risk among Treatment-Naïve People with HIV: Opportunities for Prevention, Early Detection and Management of Comorbidities in Sierra Leone

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are a growing public health concern in low- and middle-income countries and disproportionately affect people living with HIV (PWH). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and tuberculosis (TB) coinfection are presumed risk factors in endemic settings; however, supporting evidence is conflicting. We analyzed baseline data of newly diagnosed PWH prospectively enrolled in the Sierra Leone HIV Cohort Study in Freetown, Sierra Leone, from March to September 2021. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between NCDs, HBV and TB. A total of 275 PWH aged ≥18 years were studied (55% female, median age 33 years, median CD4 307 cells/mm3, 15.3% HIV/HBV, 8.7% HIV/TB). NCDs were bimodally distributed, with 1 in 4 PWH clustered around liver disease (fibrosis/cirrhosis), diabetes/prediabetes and obesity/preobesity, while 1 in 8 had renal impairment or hypertension (HTN). Overall, 41.5% had ≥1 NCD, while 17.5% were multimorbid (≥2 NCDs). After adjusting for age, sex, sociodemographic factors and CD4 count, liver fibrosis/cirrhosis was strongly associated with HBV (aOR 8.80, 95% CI [2.46−31.45]; p < 0.001) and diabetes/prediabetes (aOR 9.89, 95% CI [1.14−85.67]; p < 0.037). TB independently predicted diabetes/prediabetes (aOR 7.34, 95% CI [1.87−28.74]; p < 0.004), while renal impairment was associated with proteinuria (aOR 9.34, 95% CI [2.01−43.78]; p < 0.004) and HTN (aOR 6.00, 95% CI [1.10−35.39]; p < 0.049). Our findings warrant the implementation of NCD-aware HIV programs for the prevention, early detection and management of comorbidities.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Pulmonary Rehabilitation: From Novel Pharmacotherapeutic Approaches to Management of Post-Tuberculosis Sequelae

Tuberculosis (TB) is still a worldwide public health burden, as more than 1.3 million deaths are expected to be reported in 2021. Even though almost 20 million patients have completed specific anti-TB treatment and survived in 2020, little information is known regarding their pulmonary sequelae, quality of life, and their need to follow rehabilitation services as researchers shifted towards proper diagnosis and treatment rather than analyzing post-disease development. Understanding the underlying immunologic and pathogenic mechanisms during mycobacterial infection, which have been incompletely elucidated until now, and the development of novel anti-TB agents could lead to the proper application of rehabilitation care, as TB sequelae result from interaction between the host and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This review addresses the importance of host immune responses in TB and novel potential anti-TB drugs’ mechanisms, as well as the assessment of risk factors for post-TB disease and usefulness of guidance and optimization of pulmonary rehabilitation. The use of rehabilitation programs for patients who successfully completed anti-tuberculotic treatment represents a potent multifaceted measure in preventing the increase of mortality rates, as researchers conclude that a patient with a TB diagnosis, even when properly completing pharmacotherapy, is threatened by a potential life loss of 4 years, in comparison to healthy individuals. Dissemination of pulmonary rehabilitation services and constant actualization of protocols could strengthen management of post-TB disease among under-resourced individuals.

Non-communicable disease co-morbidity and associated factors in tuberculosis patients: A cross-sectional study in Gabon

BACKGROUND

There are only limited data from resource-limited settings available on the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and associated risk factors of tuberculosis patients. This study investigated non-communicable disease co-morbidity in tuberculosis patients from Moyen Ogooué Province, Gabon.

METHODS

All patients aged 18 years or older consulting for tuberculosis (TB) symptoms in Gabon's Moyen Ogooué province and neighbouring provinces from November 2018 to November 2020 were screened for diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and risk factors thereof (obesity, dyslipidaemia, smoking and alcohol consumption). Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with TB-diabetes and TB-hypertension co-morbidities.

FINDINGS

Of 583 patients included, 227 (39%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis. In tuberculosis-confirmed patients, the prevalences of hypertension and diabetes were 16·3% and 12·8%, respectively. The prevalence of diabetes was twice as high in tuberculosis patients compared to non-tuberculosis patients. Factors independently associated with hypertension-tuberculosis co-morbidity were age >55 years (aOR=8·5, 95% CI 2·43, 32·6), age 45-54 years (aOR=4.9, 95%CI 1.3-19.8), and moderate alcohol consumption (aOR=2·4; 95% CI 1·02- 5·9), respectively. For diabetes-tuberculosis co-morbidity, age >55 years was positively (aOR=9·13; 95% CI 2·4-39·15), and moderate alcohol consumption inversely associated (aOR=0·26, 95% CI 0·08- 0·73). One-hundred-and-four (46%) of the tuberculosis patients had at least either dyslipidaemia, hypertension, diabetes, or obesity with a majority of newly-diagnosed hypertension and diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

Integration of screening of non-communicable diseases and their risk factors during TB assessment for early diagnosis, treatment initiation and chronic care management for better health outcomes should be implemented in all tuberculosis healthcare facilities.

FUNDING

This study was supported by WHO AFRO/TDR/EDCTP (2019/893,805) and Deutsches Zentrum für Infektiologie (DZIF/ TTU 02.812).

Integrating tuberculosis and noncommunicable diseases care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs): A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are facing a combined affliction from both tuberculosis (TB) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which threatens population health and further strains the already stressed health systems. Integrating services for TB and NCDs is advantageous in tackling this joint burden of diseases effectively. Therefore, this systematic review explores the mechanisms for service integration for TB and NCDs and elucidates the facilitators and barriers for implementing integrated service models in LMIC settings.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A systematic search was conducted in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Bibliography of Asian Studies, and the Global Index Medicus from database inception to November 4, 2021. For our search strategy, the terms "tuberculosis" AND "NCDs" (and their synonyms) AND ("delivery of healthcare, integrated" OR a range of other terms representing integration) were used. Articles were included if they were descriptions or evaluations of a management or organisational change strategy made within LMICs, which aim to increase integration between TB and NCD management at the service delivery level. We performed a comparative analysis of key themes from these studies and organised the themes based on integration of service delivery options for TB and NCD services. Subsequently, these themes were used to reconfigure and update an existing framework for integration of TB and HIV services by Legido-Quigley and colleagues, which categorises the levels of integration according to types of services and location where services were offered. Additionally, we developed themes on the facilitators and barriers facing integrated service delivery models and mapped them to the World Health Organization's (WHO) health systems framework, which comprises the building blocks of service delivery, human resources, medical products, sustainable financing and social protection, information, and leadership and governance. A total of 22 articles published between 2011 and 2021 were used, out of which 13 were cross-sectional studies, 3 cohort studies, 1 case-control study, 1 prospective interventional study, and 4 were mixed methods studies. The studies were conducted in 15 LMICs in Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Our synthesised framework explicates the different levels of service integration of TB and NCD services. We categorised them into 3 levels with entry into the health system based on either TB or NCDs, with level 1 integration offering only testing services for either TB or NCDs, level 2 integration offering testing and referral services to linked care, and level 3 integration providing testing and treatment services at one location. Some facilitators of integrated service include improved accessibility to integrated services, motivated and engaged providers, and low to no cost for additional services for patients. A few barriers identified were poor public awareness of the diseases leading to poor uptake of services, lack of programmatic budget and resources, and additional stress on providers due to increased workload. The limitations include the dearth of data that explores the experiences of patients and providers and evaluates programme effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of TB and NCD services encourages the improvement of health service delivery across disease conditions and levels of care to address the combined burden of diseases in LMICs. This review not only offers recommendations for policy implementation and improvements for similar integrated programmes but also highlights the need for more high-quality TB-NCD research.

Research on the action mechanism of circular economy development and green finance based on entropy method and big data

Purpose

By calculating the information entropy of the indicator and measuring the amount of information in the data, this paper determines the weight of the indicator according to the impact of the relative change of the indicator on the whole.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to study the action mechanism of circular economy development and green finance, based on the entropy method, this paper constructs a system analysis model based on event research.

Findings

Moreover, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to obtain subjective weights based on expert opinions and then uses the entropy method to obtain objective weights and finally combines the two. In addition, an intelligent model is constructed based on the action mechanism of circular economy development and green finance to improve the system structure.

Originality/value

Finally, this paper designs experiments to verify the performance of the system model. The research results show that the system model constructed in this paper meets the actual situation.