US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths

Increased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults

BACKGROUND

If US adults who smoke cigarettes are switching to e-cigarettes, the effect may be observable at the population level: smoking prevalence should decline as e-cigarette prevalence increases, especially in sub-populations with highest e-cigarette use. This study aimed to assess such effects in recent nationally-representative data.

METHODS

We updated a prior analysis with the latest available National Health Interview Survey data through 2022. Data were cross-sectional estimates of the yearly prevalence of smoking and e-cigarette use, respectively, among US adults and among specific age, race/ethnicity, and sex subpopulations. Non-linear models were fitted to observed smoking prevalence in the pre-e-cigarette era, with a range of 'cut-off' years explored (i.e., between when e-cigarettes were first introduced to when they became widely available). These trends were projected forward to predict what smoking prevalence would have been if pre-e-cigarette era trends had continued uninterrupted. The difference between actual and predicted smoking prevalence ('discrepancy') was compared to e-cigarette use prevalence in each year in the e-cigarette era to investigate whether the observed decline in smoking was statistically associated with e-cigarette use.

RESULTS

Observed smoking prevalence in the e-cigarette era was significantly lower than expected based on pre-e-cigarette era trends; these discrepancies in smoking prevalence grew as e-cigarette use prevalence increased, and were larger in subpopulations with higher e-cigarette use, especially younger adults aged 18-34. Results were robust to sensitivity tests varying the analysis design.

CONCLUSIONS

Population-level data continue to suggest that smoking prevalence has declined at an accelerated rate in the last decade in ways correlated with increased uptake of e-cigarette use.

Measures of youth e-cigarette use: strengths, weaknesses and recommendations

This perspective discusses how to best define "e-cigarette use" among youth in a way that is relevant to individual and human health. Commonly-used definitions of youth e-cigarette use have been adapted from measures validated for tobacco cigarette smoking among adults, but may not carry the same meaning for a different product (with a much lower risk profile and very different patterns of use) and a different population (whose use is more often transient and experimental, rather than frequent and persistent). We discuss strengths and weaknesses of different definitions, and recommend improvements in defining youth e-cigarette use. We find that current literature employs a range of definitions of e-cigarette use, from lifetime use ("even a puff") to daily use. More lenient measures capture more potentially at-risk youth, but much of this is transient experimentation that has negligible risks in and itself, if not persistent. More stringent measures such as daily use are more relevant to individual and public health. Future research should examine possible improvements to definitions which include intensity of use (e.g., number of puffs per day) and persistence/duration of use, either via self-report or technology-assisted data capture.

Evaluating trends in cigarette and HTP use in Japan and measurement issues in the National Health and Nutrition Survey

INTRODUTION

Studies have reported that the rapid rise in heated tobacco product (HTP) sales in Japan accompanied an accelerated decline in cigarette sales. However, these studies do not distinguish whether those who previously smoked cigarettes became dual users with HTPs (smoking fewer cigarettes) or instead switched completely to HTPs. If HTPs present lower health risks than cigarettes, replacing cigarettes with HTPs is more likely to improve public health than cigarette users continuing as dual users.

METHODS

To evaluate the role of HTP introduction relative to smoking prevalence, we examine trends in cigarette prevalence as related to trends in HTP use using Japan's National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHNS) from 2011 to 2019. We develop measures of relative changes in smoking prevalence use by age and gender in the pre-HTP and post-HTP periods. We then analyse prevalence data by year using joinpoint regression to statistically distinguish changes in trend.

RESULTS

Compared with the pre-HTP 2011-2014 period, cigarette prevalence decreased more rapidly during the post-HTP 2014-2017 period, particularly among younger age groups. However, the changing format of NHNS questions limits our ability to determine the impact on smoking prevalence, particularly after 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

While suggesting that HTPs helped some people who smoke to quit smoking, this study also shows the difficulties in eliciting accurate survey responses about product use and distinguishing the impact of a potentially harm-reducing product in an environment subject to rapidly evolving patterns of use.

Informing Public Health Policies with Models for Disease Burden, Impact Evaluation, and Economic Evaluation

Conducting real-world public health experiments is often costly, time-consuming, and ethically challenging, so mathematical models have a long-standing history of being used to inform policy. Applications include estimating disease burden, performing economic evaluation of interventions, and responding to health emergencies such as pandemics. Models played a pivotal role during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing early detection of SARS-CoV-2's pandemic potential and informing subsequent public health measures. While models offer valuable policy insights, they often carry limitations, especially when they depend on assumptions and incomplete data. Striking a balance between accuracy and timely decision-making in rapidly evolving situations such as disease outbreaks is challenging. Modelers need to explore the extent to which their models deviate from representing the real world. The uncertainties inherent in models must be effectively communicated to policy makers and the public. As the field becomes increasingly influential, it needs to develop reporting standards that enable rigorous external scrutiny.

E-cigarette Use and Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis

E-cigarettes have been known to cause varied poor health outcomes prior to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but after the impact of COVID-19, evidence came out that was, in some instances, not as expected regarding the severity of COVID-19 among e-cigarette users (vapers). A meta-analysis was performed on the available evidence to comprehensively find the effect of COVID-19 on existing or past e-cigarette users (vapers). The Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines were used to perform this meta-analysis. PubMed was searched for observational studies that described outcomes after COVID-19 positivity from December 1, 2019, to December 2023. Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) keywords were used for searching the relevant studies highlighting the relationship between COVID-19 and e-cigarette users. Calculations for pooled prevalence, 95% confidence interval (95% CI), weights for current e-cigarette users and vapers, and outcomes (events) were made. To analyze the data, Review Manager V.5.4 was used. The I² statistic was used to assess statistical heterogeneity. The I² statistic of >50% was considered significant heterogeneity. The "leave-one-out" method was used for sensitivity analysis. Out of 3231 studies, four studies reported data on vaping and non-vaping status and composite outcomes, resulting in a sample size of 653 COVID-19-positive cases. The pooled prevalence of being COVID-19 positive, having symptoms, or visiting an emergency room was 7.78% (653/8392). COVID-19 patients with current vaping status had decreased odds of poor outcomes compared to non-smokers, with a pooled odds ratio (OR) of 0.09 (95% CI 0.00-2.42; p>0.05) with heterogeneity between studies (I²=99%, p=0.15). Because of difficulties related to data collection and other factors, this meta-analysis was unable to conclusively establish the correlation between e-cigarette usage and severe COVID-19 outcomes such as hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit, and fatality. Additional research using more detailed data is necessary to fully understand this correlation.

Differences in Normative Beliefs and Tobacco Product Use by Age Among Adults Who Smoke: Cross-Sectional Analysis of a Nationally Representative Sample

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of combusted cigarette (CC) smoking among older adults is stagnant, with 0 declines attributable to e-cigarette (EC) use. Given that normative beliefs are associated with quitting and switching to ECs, we assessed cross-sectional associations between age, CC, and EC descriptive and injunctive norms and potential interactions with tobacco use behavior.

METHODS

Data are from people with current, established (≥100 lifetime CCs) CC use (n = 8072) at Wave 5 (2018-2019) of the adult Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. We used adjusted multivariable logistic regressions to model social norms as a function of age (18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, ≥65 years). We also dichotomized age (≥55 vs 18-54) to investigate interactions between age and social norms on past 12-month CC quit attempts and past-month EC use.

RESULTS

Older age was positively associated with pro- and anti-CC norms and anti-EC norms. Significant interactive effects revealed that being advised to quit smoking by a healthcare provider was more strongly associated with CC quit attempts among adults ≥55 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] [95% CI]: 2.12 [1.66, 2.71]) than adults <55 years (aOR: 1.63 [1.34, 2.00]). Reporting people close to you use ECs was also more strongly associated with EC use among adults ≥55 years (aOR: 4.37 [3.35, 5.69]) than among adults <55 years (aOR: 3.43 [2.89, 4.08]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified modifiable risk factors for tobacco use that may be particularly beneficial for older adults. Behavioral and communication interventions that target normative beliefs may maximize smoking cessation, or harm reduction when cessation is not possible.

Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model

OBJECTIVES

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to complex transitions between NVP and cigarette use. To circumvent the data limitations and parameter instability challenges in modeling transitions, we indirectly estimate NVPs' impact on smoking prevalence and resulting smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

METHODS

Canada SimSmoke uses age- and sex-specific data on Canadian population, smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies. The model incorporates the impact of cigarette-oriented policies on smoking prevalence but not the explicit contribution of NVPs. The model was calibrated from 1999 to 2012, thereby projecting smoking prevalence before NVPs were widely used in Canada. The NVP impact on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing projected 2012-2020 smoking trends absent NVPs to corresponding trends from two Canadian national surveys. We further distinguish impacts before and after NVPs became regulated in 2018 and more available.

RESULTS

Comparing 2012-2020 survey data of post-NVP to SimSmoke projected smoking prevalence trends, one survey indicated an NVP-related relative reduction of 15% (15%) for males (females) age 15+, but 32% (52%) for those ages 15-24. The other survey indicated a 14% (19%) NVP-related smoking reduction for ages 18+, but 42% (53%) for persons ages 18-24. Much of the gain occurred since Canada relaxed NVP restrictions. NVP-related 2012-2020 smoking reductions yielded 100,000 smoking-attributable deaths averted from 2012 to 2060.

CONCLUSION

Smoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

Do Tobacco Companies Have an Incentive to Promote "Harm Reduction" Products?: The Role of Competition

INTRODUCTION

Some cigarette companies have started to talk about replacing cigarettes with less harmful alternatives, which might include nicotine vaping products (NVPs), heated tobacco products (HTPs), and oral nicotine delivery products. We consider market competition as a primary driver of whether cigarette companies follow through on their stated intentions.

AIMS AND METHODS

We focus on the behavior of cigarette companies in the United States. We compare competition in the pre- and post-2012 time periods, analyze the impact of the growth in NVPs on smoking prevalence and cigarette company profits, and examine the potential future role of competition.

RESULTS

Since 2006, consumers have broadened their use of non-combustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs) to include, inter alia, NVPs, HTPs, and oral nicotine pouches. U.S. cigarette companies have acquired major stakes in each of these product categories which corresponds to a period of rapidly declining adult smoking prevalence, especially among younger adults (ages 18-24 years). The shifting dynamics of the nicotine product marketplace are also reflected in cigarette company stock prices. While cigarette companies are likely to promote HTPs and nicotine delivery products over NVPs, their incentives will be directly related to competition from independent firms, which in turn will depend on government regulation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although cigarette companies will back alternatives to combusted tobacco when threatened by competition, the prospects for their lasting conversion to NCNDPs will depend on the extent of such competition, which will be influenced by government regulation of tobacco products.

IMPLICATIONS

Regulations that limit competition from independent firms while also protecting cigarette company profits risk slowing or even reversing recent declines in smoking, especially among youth and young adults. Regulations that reduce the appeal and addictiveness of combusted tobacco products, such as higher cigarette taxes or a reduced nicotine standard, will encourage smokers to quit and/or switch to less harmful non-combusted forms of tobacco. The regulation of non-combustible nicotine delivery products and cigarettes should be proportionate to their relative risks, so that smokers have incentives to switch from combustibles to safer alternatives, and cigarette companies have incentives to promote safer products.

Potential Implications for Tobacco Industry Transformation of the Acquisition of Swedish Match by Philip Morris International

Philip Morris International's recent purchase of Swedish Match may prove to be a vital tobacco industry development. We focus on PMIs potential progress in moving from primarily selling cigarettes toward primarily selling noncombustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs). We also consider the potential contribution of the acquisition to industry transformation whereby other cigarette firms may potentially move toward primarily selling NCNDPs. We examine the potential impact on noncombustible nicotine delivery product use, including nicotine pouches (a major Swedish Match product), e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and, most importantly, on sales of the industry's staple, combustible cigarettes. We focus on the United States as a special case, where PMI is limited from entering the cigarette market. Implications: Philip Morris International's purchase of Swedish Match and policies regarding nicotine pouches (NPs) have been overlooked in the tobacco control literature. The acquisition indicates the importance of the NP market to the largest nonstate-owned tobacco company. The acquisition has the potential through pricing and marketing tactics to either encourage or discourage the use of NPs, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and most importantly cigarettes. Due to its inability to sell cigarettes in the United States, PMI will have incentives to use its alternative nicotine delivery products, including its newly acquired NPs, to reduce the sale of cigarettes by other companies. However, the potential effects in other countries, where PMI does sell cigarettes, are less clear. Monitoring and analyzing tobacco company acquisitions is essential to studying future transitions in using different kinds of tobacco products, especially from cigarettes to lower-risk alternative nicotine delivery products.

Modeling the future of tobacco control: Using SimSmoke to explore the feasibility of the tobacco endgame in Korea

INTRODUCTION

We used a simulation model to assess the feasibility of reaching the tobacco endgame target (reducing the smoking prevalence to below 5% by 2050) and explored potential implementation strategies.

METHODS

The impact of strengthened tobacco-control policies on smoking prevalence was analyzed using Korea SimSmoke, a discrete-time Markov process. We considered the effects of various scenarios from 2023 and predictions were conducted until 2050. To confirm the stability of the results, deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out by increasing and decreasing parameter estimates.

RESULTS

The implementation of tobacco-control policies in accordance with the WHO MPOWER (Μonitor tobacco use and prevention policies; Protect people from tobacco smoke; Offer help to quit tobacco smoking; Warn of the dangers of tobacco; Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship; Raise taxes on tobacco) measures were insufficient to achieve the tobacco endgame objective of 5% by 2050. The overall predicted smoking prevalence in 2050 is 4.7% if all policies are fully implemented in accordance with the FCTC guidelines together with a complete ban on the sale of cigarettes to people born after 2003 and annual 10% increases in price. Sensitivity analyses using the varying policy effect assumptions demonstrated the robustness of the simulation results.

CONCLUSIONS

For a substantive reduction in smoking prevalence, it is essential to strongly implement the MPOWER strategy. Beyond this foundational step, the eradication of smoking requires a paradigm shift in the perception of conventional tobacco-control policies, including a tobacco-free generation strategy and radical increases in the price of tobacco products.

Effects of reduced-risk nicotine-delivery products on smoking prevalence and cigarette sales: an observational study

Background

It is not currently clear what impact alternative nicotine-delivery products (electronic cigarettes, heated tobacco products and snus) have on smoking rates and cigarette sales.

Objective

To assess whether access to these products promotes smoking in the population.

Design and data sources

We examined associations of alternative nicotine product use and sales with smoking rates and cigarette sales overall, and in different age and socioeconomic groups, and compared smoking prevalence over time in countries with contrasting regulations of these products. For electronic cigarettes, we examined data from countries with historically similar smoking trajectories but differing current electronic cigarette regulations (United Kingdom and United States of America vs. Australia, where sales of nicotine-containing electronic cigarettes are banned); for heated tobacco, we used data from countries with state tobacco monopolies, where cigarette and heated tobacco sales data are available (Japan, South Korea), and for snus we used data from Sweden.

Analysis methods

We pre-specified dynamic time series analyses to explore associations between use and sales of alternative nicotine-delivery products and smoking prevalence and cigarette sales, and time series analyses to compare trends of smoking prevalence in countries with different nicotine product policies.

Results

Because of data and analysis limitations (see below), results are only tentative and need to be interpreted with caution. Only a few findings reached statistical significance and for most results the Bayes factor indicated inconclusive evidence. We did not find an association between rates of smoking and rates of the use of alternative nicotine products. The increase in heated tobacco product sales in Japan was accompanied by a decrease in cigarette sales. The decline in smoking prevalence seems to have been slower in Australia than in the United Kingdom overall, and slower than in both the United Kingdom and the United States of America among young people and also in lower socioeconomic groups. The decline in cigarette sales has also accelerated faster in the United Kingdom than in Australia.

Limitations

Most of the available data had insufficient data points for robust time series analyses. The assumption of our statistical approach that causal interactions are more likely to be detected when longer-term changes are screened out may not apply for short time series and in product interaction scenarios, where short-term fluctuations can be caused by, for example, fluctuations in prosperity or product supplies. In addition, due to dual use, prevalence figures for smoking and alternative product use overlap. The ecological study design limits the causal inferences that can be made. Longer time periods are needed for any effects of exclusive use of the new products on smoking prevalence to emerge.

Conclusions

We detected some indications that alternative nicotine products are competing with cigarettes rather than promoting smoking and that regulations that allow their sales are associated with a reduction rather than an increase of smoking, but the findings are inconclusive because of insufficient data points and issues with the assumptions of the pre-specified statistical analyses.

Future work

As further prevalence and sales data emerge the analyses will become more informative. Accessing sales figures in particular is the current research priority.

Study registration

The project is registered on Open Science Framework https://osf.io/bd3ah.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR129968) and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Follow the money: a closer look at US tobacco industry marketing expenditures

INTRODUCTION

While much of the concern with tobacco industry marketing has focused on direct media advertising, a less explored form of marketing strategy is to discount prices. Price discounting is important because it keeps the purchase price low and can undermine the impact of tax increases.

METHODS

We examine annual US marketing expenditures from 1975 to 2019 by the largest cigarette and smokeless tobacco companies as reported to the Federal Trade Commission. We consider three categories: direct advertising, promotional allowances and price discounting. In addition to considering trends in these expenditures, we examine how price discounting expenditures relate to changes in product prices and excise taxes.

RESULTS

US direct advertising expenditures for cigarettes fell from 80% of total industry marketing expenditures in 1975 to less than 3% in 2019, while falling from 39% in 1985 to 6% in 2019 for smokeless tobacco. Price discounting expenditures for cigarettes became prominent after the Master Settlement Agreement and related tax increases in 2002. By 2019, 87% of cigarette marketing expenditures were for price discounts and 7% for promotional allowances. Smokeless marketing expenditures were similar: 72% for price promotions and 13% for promotional allowances. Price discounting increased with prices and taxes until reaching their currently high levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1975 and 2019, direct advertising dramatically fell while price discounting and promotional expenditures increased. Local, state and federal policies are needed that apply non-tax mechanisms to increase tobacco prices and restrict industry contracts to offset industry marketing strategies. Further study is needed to better understand industry decisions about marketing expenditures.

How cigarette excise tax pass-through to prices responds to the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs)

BACKGROUND

How excise taxes are passed through to prices determines whether tax policies will be effective in changing smoking behaviours. Though previous literature has documented that cigarette taxes are overly shifted to prices, there is limited evidence on how cigarette tax pass-through to prices is affected by the uptake and evolution of e-cigarettes (ECs) in the US market.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigates how cigarette excise tax pass-through rate varied by price levels (the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile prices) and the uptake and evolution of ECs.

METHODS

Tax pass-through rates were assessed using ordinary least squares regressions while controlling for state, year and month fixed effects. Different trends were then tested for the pre-EC uptake era (2006-2011), EC uptake era (2012-2016) and the evolution of nicotine salt-based ECs era (2017 and later).

FINDINGS

Cigarette excise taxes were fully shifted to the 25th and 50th percentile prices and overly shifted to the 75th percentile prices at a 1:1.1 rate. While cigarette excise taxes had a continuous impact on raising prices, the tax pass-through rates were lower for lower priced cigarettes, and states imposed lower taxes.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing to raise cigarette taxes may be needed to create financial incentives to encourage people who smoke to switch to ECs. In addition, continuing to raise cigarette taxes and additional pricing policies such as price promotion restrictions are needed to increase retail prices and reduce price minimisation opportunities.

Predicting the long-term effects of electronic cigarette use on population health: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and synthesise the findings of modelling studies on the population impacts of e-cigarette use and to identify potential gaps requiring future investigation.

DATA SOURCE AND STUDY SELECTION

Four databases were searched for modelling studies of e-cigarette use on population health published between 2010 and 2023. A total of 32 studies were included.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on study characteristics, model attributes and estimates of population impacts including health outcomes and smoking prevalence were extracted from each article. The findings were synthesised narratively.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The introduction of e-cigarettes was predicted to lead to decreased smoking-related mortality, increased quality-adjusted life-years and reduced health system costs in 29 studies. Seventeen studies predicted a lower prevalence of cigarette smoking. Models that predicted negative population impacts assumed very high e-cigarette initiation rates among non-smokers and that e-cigarette use would discourage smoking cessation by a large margin. The majority of the studies were based on US population data and few studies included factors other than smoking status, such as jurisdictional tobacco control policies or social influence.

CONCLUSIONS

A population increase in e-cigarette use may result in lower smoking prevalence and reduced burden of disease in the long run, especially if their use can be restricted to assisting smoking cessation. Given the assumption-dependent nature of modelling outcomes, future modelling studies should consider incorporating different policy options in their projection exercises, using shorter time horizons and expanding their modelling to low-income and middle-income countries where smoking rates remain relatively high.

Older age is associated with greater misperception of the relative health risk of e-cigarettes and cigarettes among US adults who smoke

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of cigarette smoking among adults aged ≥55 has remained stagnant over the past decade. National data modelling suggests no reduction in cigarette smoking prevalence attributable to e-cigarette use in the USA among people aged ≥45. Misperceptions about the absolute risks (ie, cigarettes are not harmful) and relative risks (ie, e-cigarettes are more harmful than cigarettes) of tobacco products may contribute to sustained smoking prevalence and hesitancy to switch from cigarettes to e-cigarettes among older adults.

METHODS

Participants reported cigarette use (n=8072) at Wave 5 (2018-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Weighted multivariable logistic regressions included six age categories (independent variable) and cigarette and e-cigarette risk perceptions (outcomes). Additional models assessed the associations between dichotomous age (≥55 vs 18-54), risk perceptions and an interaction term (independent variables) with past 12-month quit attempts and past-month e-cigarette use (outcomes).

RESULTS

Adults aged ≥65 were less likely than adults aged 18-24 to rate cigarettes as very/extremely harmful (p<0.05). Odds of rating e-cigarettes as more harmful than cigarettes among adults aged 55-64 and ≥65 were 1.71 (p<0.001) and 1.43 (p=0.024) greater than for adults aged 18-24. This misperception was negatively associated with past-month e-cigarette use and was stronger among adults aged ≥55 (p<0.001) than adults aged <55 (p<0.001).

DISCUSSION

Adults aged ≥55 are more likely to have misperceptions about the absolute and relative risks of tobacco products, which may contribute to continued smoking. Health communications targeting this age group could modify beliefs about the perceived harms of tobacco products.

Population-level counterfactual trend modelling to examine the relationship between smoking prevalence and e-cigarette use among US adults

BACKGROUND

Studies have suggested that some US adult smokers are switching away from smoking to e-cigarette use. Nationally representative data may reflect such changes in smoking by assessing trends in cigarette and e-cigarette prevalence. The objective of this study is to assess whether and how much smoking prevalence differs from expectations since the introduction of e-cigarettes.

METHODS

Annual estimates of smoking and e-cigarette use in US adults varying in age, race/ethnicity, and sex were derived from the National Health Interview Survey. Regression models were fitted to smoking prevalence trends before e-cigarettes became widely available (1999-2009) and trends were extrapolated to 2019 (counterfactual model). Smoking prevalence discrepancies, defined as the difference between projected and actual smoking prevalence from 2010 to 2019, were calculated, to evaluate whether actual smoking prevalence differed from those expected from counterfactual projections. The correlation between smoking discrepancies and e-cigarette use prevalence was investigated.

RESULTS

Actual overall smoking prevalence from 2010 to 2019 was significantly lower than counterfactual predictions. The discrepancy was significantly larger as e-cigarette use prevalence increased. In subgroup analyses, discrepancies in smoking prevalence were more pronounced for cohorts with greater e-cigarette use prevalence, namely adults ages 18-34, adult males, and non-Hispanic White adults.

CONCLUSION

Population-level data suggest that smoking prevalence has dropped faster than expected, in ways correlated with increased e-cigarette use. This population movement has potential public health implications.

A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products

Markets for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have grown as these products became positioned as harm-reduction alternatives to combusted tobacco products. Herein, we present a public health decision-theoretic framework incorporating different patterns of HTP, NVP, and cigarette use to examine their impacts on population health. Our framework demonstrates that, for individuals who would have otherwise smoked, HTP use may provide public health benefits by enabling cessation or by discouraging smoking initiation and relapse. However, the benefits are reduced if more harmful HTP use replaces less harmful NVP use. HTP use may also negatively impact public health by encouraging smoking by otherwise non-smokers or by encouraging initiation or relapse into smoking. These patterns are directly influenced by industry behavior as well as public policy towards HTPs, NVPs, and cigarettes. While substantial research has been devoted to NVPs, much less is known about HTPs. Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products. While our analysis provides a framework for gaining that information, it also illustrates the complexities in distinguishing key factors.

The Australia Smoking and Vaping Model: The Potential Impact of Increasing Access to Nicotine Vaping Products

BACKGROUND

We model the potential impact of relaxing current nicotine vaping product (NVP) restrictions on public health in Australia.

AIMS AND METHODS

A Restricted NVP Scenario was first developed to project current smoking and vaping rates, where a U.S. smoking model was calibrated to recent Australian trends. To model less restrictive NVP policies, a Permissive NVP Scenario applied rates of switching from smoking to vaping, initiation into NVP and cigarette use, and cessation from smoking and vaping based on U.S. trends. The model measures vaping risk relative to the excess mortality rate of smoking. The public health impacts are measured as the difference between smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life years lost (LYLs) in the Restricted and Permissive NVP Scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted regarding the NVP excess risk and other factors.

RESULTS

Assuming an NVP excess risk of 5% that of smoking, 104.2 thousand SVADs (7.7% reduction) and 2.05 million LYLs (17.3% reduction) are averted during 2017-2080 in the Permissive NVP Scenario compared to the Restricted NVP Scenario. Assuming 40% NVP excess risk, 70 thousand SVADs and 1.2 million LYLs are averted. The impact is sensitive to the rate at which smokers switch to NVPs and quit smoking, and relatively insensitive to the smoking initiation and NVP initiation and cessation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests the potential for public health gains to be achieved by relaxing NVP access regulations. However, the model would benefit from better information regarding the impact of NVPs on smoking under a relaxation of current restrictions.

IMPLICATIONS

Australia has implemented a strong array of cigarette-oriented policies, but has restricted access to NVPs. The Smoking and Vaping Model offers a framework for modeling hypothetical policy scenarios. The Australian model shows the potential for public health gains by maintaining cigarette-oriented policies while relaxing the current restrictive NVP policy. Modeling results under a permissive NVP policy are particularly sensitive to the estimated rates of smoking cessation and switching to vaping, which are not well established and will likely depend on past and future cigarette-oriented policies and the specific NVP policies implemented in Australia.