The Effect of Ambient Environmental Conditions on COVID-19 Mortality: A Systematic Review

Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? evidence from cell-phone data

There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting. We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021. We also evaluated the evidence for seasonal effect modification by comparing the results of all-season (using season as a covariate) to season-stratified models. Four weather conditions were associated with both time spent indoors away-from-home and 12-day lagged COVID-19 hospital admissions in one or more season: high minimum temperature (all-season), low maximum temperature (spring), low minimum absolute humidity (winter), and high solar radiation (all-season & winter). In our mediation analyses, we found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, as well as other seasonal respiratory pathogens.

Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data

Background

There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting.

Objectives

We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility.

Methods

We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021.

Results

We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions.

Discussion

Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens.

Indoor air humidity revisited: Impact on acute symptoms, work productivity, and risk of influenza and COVID-19 infection

Recent epidemiological and experimental findings reconfirm that low indoor air humidity (dry air) increases the prevalence of acute eye and airway symptoms in offices, result in lower mucociliary clearance in the airways, less efficient immune defense, and deteriorate the work productivity. New epidemiological and experimental research also support that the environmental conditions for the risk of infection of influenza and COVID-19 virus is lowest in the Goldilocks zone of 40-60% relative humidity (RH) by decrease of the airways' susceptibility, which can be elevated by particle exposure. Furthermore, low RH increases the generation of infectious virus laden aerosols exhaled from infected people. In general, elevation of the indoor air humidity from dry air increases the health of the airways concomitantly with lower viability of infectious virus. Thus, the negative effects of ventilation with dry outdoor air (low absolute air humidity) should be assessed according to 1) weakened health and functionality of the airways, 2) increased viability and possible increased transmissibility of infectious virus, and 3) evaporation of virus containing droplets to dry out to droplet nuclei (also possible at high room temperature), which increases their floating time in the indoor air. The removal of acid-containing ambient aerosols from the indoor air by filtration increases pH, viability of infectious viruses, and the risk of infection, which synergistically may further increase by particle exposure. Thus, the dilution of indoor air pollutants and virus aerosols by dry outdoor air ventilation should be assessed and compared with the beneficial health effects by control of the center zone of 40-60% RH, an essential factor for optimal functionality of the airways, and with the additional positive impact on acute symptoms, work productivity, and reduced risk of infection.

Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding the effectiveness of these interventions due to data quality issues, methodological challenges, and differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation of their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness.

METHODS

To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes the impact of NPIs and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted the model to comprehensive epidemiological data in France from March 2020 to October 2021. With the same model, we simulated scenarios of vaccine rollout.

RESULTS

The first lockdown was the most effective, reducing transmission by 84 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished effectiveness (reduction of 74 % (69-77) and 11 % (9-18), respectively). A 6 pm curfew was more effective than one at 8 pm (68 % (66-69) vs. 48 % (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced transmission by 15 % (12-18). In a scenario without vaccines before November 2021, we predicted 159,000 or 168 % (95 % prediction interval (PI) 70-315) more deaths and 1,488,000 or 300 % (133-492) more hospitalizations. If a vaccine had been available after 100 days, over 71,000 deaths (16,507-204,249) and 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could have been averted.

CONCLUSION

Our results highlight the substantial impact of NPIs, including lockdowns and curfews, in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate the value of the 100 days objective of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative for vaccine availability.

The effect of the urban exposome on COVID-19 health outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The global severity of SARS-CoV-2 illness has been associated with various urban characteristics, including exposure to ambient air pollutants. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to synthesize findings from ecological and non-ecological studies to investigate the impact of multiple urban-related features on a variety of COVID-19 health outcomes.

METHODS

On December 5, 2022, PubMed was searched to identify all types of observational studies that examined one or more urban exposome characteristics in relation to various COVID-19 health outcomes such as infection severity, the need for hospitalization, ICU admission, COVID pneumonia, and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 38 non-ecological and 241 ecological studies were included in this review. Non-ecological studies highlighted the significant effects of population density, urbanization, and exposure to ambient air pollutants, particularly PM2.5. The meta-analyses revealed that a 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a higher likelihood of COVID-19 hospitalization (pooled OR 1.08 (95% CI:1.02-1.14)) and death (pooled OR 1.06 (95% CI:1.03-1.09)). Ecological studies, in addition to confirming the findings of non-ecological studies, also indicated that higher exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO), as well as lower ambient temperature, humidity, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and less green and blue space exposure, were associated with increased COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review has identified several key vulnerability features related to urban areas in the context of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the importance of improving policies related to urban exposures and implementing measures to protect individuals from these harmful environmental stressors.

Covid-19 outbreak associated with demographic-meteorological factors in the arid and semi-arid region Iran: case study Gonabad city, 2020-2021

Since the (Covid-19) pandemic outbreak, questioning regarding climate and incident of Covid-19 infection rates has been debated, while there is no clear research evidence until now in Iran. This study has focused on investigating the association between Covid-19 cases and demographic -meteorological factors in arid and semi-arid zones of Iran (from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022) by analyzing with Via Poisson and negative binomial regression. As a result, the incidence rate of both Covid-19 hospitalization and mortality cases reached peaks in the summer followed by the autumn. Interestingly, Covid-19 hospitalization cases are associated with humidity, temperature, and wind factors seasonally and monthly, but mortality cases are just associated with wind. In conclusion, the result demonstrated that demographicand meteorological factorsare positively and negatively associated with Covid-19 cases. Therefore, identifying the environmental factors contributing to the excess Covid-19 can help to prevent future pandemic waves in Iranian arid and semi-arid zone.

Normo- or Hypo-Fractionated Photon or Proton Radiotherapy in the Management of Locally Advanced Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer: A Systematic Review

LAPC is associated with a poor prognosis and requires a multimodal treatment approach. However, the role of radiation therapy in LAPC treatment remains controversial. This systematic review aimed to explore the role of proton and photon therapy, with varying radiation techniques and fractionation, in treatment outcomes and their respective toxicity profiles.

METHODS

Clinical studies published from 2012 to 2022 were systematically reviewed using PubMed, MEDLINE (via PubMed) and Cochrane databases. Different radiotherapy-related data were extracted and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 31 studies matched the inclusion criteria. Acute toxicity was less remarkable in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) compared to conventionally fractionated radiotherapy (CFRT), while in proton beam therapy (PBT) grade 3 or higher acute toxicity was observed more commonly with doses of 67.5 Gy (RBE) or higher. Late toxicity was not reported in most studies; therefore, comparison between groups was not possible. The range of median overall survival (OS) for the CFRT and SBRT groups was 9.3-22.9 months and 8.5-20 months, respectively. For the PBT group, the range of median OS was 18.4-22.3 months.

CONCLUSION

CFRT and SBRT showed comparable survival outcomes with a more favorable acute toxicity profile for SBRT. PBT is a promising new treatment modality; however, additional clinical studies are needed to support its efficacy and safety.

The influence of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in Italy during the first and second wave

The relation between meteorological factors and COVID-19 spread remains uncertain, particularly with regard to the role of temperature, relative humidity and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To assess this relation, we investigated disease spread within Italy during 2020. The pandemic had a large and early impact in Italy, and during 2020 the effects of vaccination and viral variants had not yet complicated the dynamics. We used non-linear, spline-based Poisson regression of modeled temperature, UV and relative humidity, adjusting for mobility patterns and additional confounders, to estimate daily rates of COVID-19 new cases, hospital and intensive care unit admissions, and deaths during the two waves of the pandemic in Italy during 2020. We found little association between relative humidity and COVID-19 endpoints in both waves, whereas UV radiation above 40 kJ/m² showed a weak inverse association with hospital and ICU admissions in the first wave, and a stronger relation with all COVID-19 endpoints in the second wave. Temperature above 283 K (10 °C/50 °F) showed a strong non-linear negative relation with COVID-19 endpoints, with inconsistent relations below this cutpoint in the two waves. Given the biological plausibility of a relation between temperature and COVID-19, these data add support to the proposition that temperature above 283 K, and possibly high levels of solar UV radiation, reduced COVID-19 spread.

Health Benefits of Residence at Moderate Altitude Do Not Reduce COVID-19 Mortality

Moderate altitude (1000−2000 m above sea level) residence is emerging as a protective factor from the mortality of various causes, including of cardiovascular diseases. Conversely, mortality from certain respiratory diseases is higher at these altitudes than in lowlands. These divergent outcomes could indicate either beneficial or detrimental effects of altitude on the mortality of COVID-19 that primarily infects the respiratory tract but results in multi-organ damage. Previous epidemiological data indeed suggest divergent outcomes of moderate to high altitude residence in various countries. Confounding factors, such as variations in the access to clinical facilities or selection biases of investigated populations, may contribute to the equivocation of these observations. We interrogated a dataset of the complete population of an Alpine country in the center of Europe with relatively similar testing and clinical support conditions across altitude-levels of residence (up to around 2000 m) to assess altitude-dependent mortality from COVID-19 throughout 2020. While a reduced all-cause mortality was confirmed for people living higher than 1000 m, no differences in the mortality from COVID-19 between the lowest and the highest altitude regions were observed for the overall population and the population older than 60 years as well. Conversely, COVID-19 mortality seems to have been reduced in the very old (>85 years) women at moderate altitudes.

Role of meteorological factors on SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in Italy and Spain before the vaccination campaign. A multi-city time series study

Numerous studies have been conducted worldwide to investigate if an association exists between meteorological factors and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection incidence. Although research studies provide conflicting results, which can be partially explained by different methods used, some clear trends emerge on the role of weather conditions and SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially for temperature and humidity. This study sheds more light on the relationship between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence in 23 Italian and 52 Spanish cities. For the purposes of this study, daily air temperature, absolute and relative humidity, wind speed, ultraviolet radiation, and rainfall are considered exposure variables. We conducted a two-stage meta-regression. In the first stage, we estimated the exposure-response association through time series regression analysis at the municipal level. In the second stage, we pooled the association parameters using a meta-analytic model. The study demonstrates an association between meteorological factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection incidence. Specifically, low levels of ambient temperatures and absolute humidity were associated with an increased relative risk. On the other hand, low and high levels of relative humidity and ultraviolet radiation were associated with a decreased relative risk. Concerning wind speed and rainfall, higher values contributed to the reduction of the risk of infection. Overall, our results contribute to a better understanding of how the meteorological factors influence the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 and should be considered in a wider context of existing robust literature that highlight the importance of measures such as social distancing, improved hygiene, face masks and vaccination campaign.

Application of Nanopore Sequencing in the Detection of Foodborne Microorganisms

Foodborne pathogens have become the subject of intense interest because of their high incidence and mortality worldwide. In the past few decades, people have developed many methods to solve this challenge. At present, methods such as traditional microbial culture methods, nucleic acid or protein-based pathogen detection methods, and whole-genome analysis are widely used in the detection of pathogenic microorganisms in food. However, these methods are limited by time-consuming, cumbersome operations or high costs. The development of nanopore sequencing technology offers the possibility to address these shortcomings. Nanopore sequencing, a third-generation technology, has the advantages of simple operation, high sensitivity, real-time sequencing, and low turnaround time. It can be widely used in the rapid detection and serotyping of foodborne pathogens. This review article discusses foodborne diseases, the principle of nanopore sequencing technology, the application of nanopore sequencing technology in foodborne pathogens detection, as well as its development prospects.

Seasonality of influenza and other respiratory viruses

In virology, the term seasonality describes variations in virus prevalence at more or less regular intervals throughout the year. Specifically, it has long been recognized that outbreaks of human influenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and human coronaviruses occur in temperate climates during the winter season, whereas low activity is detected during the summer months. Other human respiratory viruses, such as parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumoviruses, and rhinoviruses, show highest activity during the spring or fall season in temperate regions, depending on the virus and subtype. In tropical climates, influenza viruses circulate throughout the year and no distinct seasonal patterns are observed, although virus outbreaks tend to spike during the rainy season. Overall, seasonality is more pronounced with greater distance from the equator, and tends to be less pronounced in regions closer to the equator (Li et al, 2019).

Healthcare-acquired clusters of COVID-19 across multiple wards in a Scottish health board

Background

Healthcare-acquired COVID-19 has been an additional burden on hospitals managing increasing numbers of patients with SARS-CoV-2. One acute hospital (W) among three in a Scottish healthboard experienced an unexpected surge of COVID-19 clusters.

Aim

To investigate possible causes of COVID-19 clusters at Hospital W.

Methods

Daily surveillance provided total numbers of patients and staff involved in clusters in three acute hospitals (H, M and W) and care homes across the healthboard. All clusters were investigated and documented, along with patient boarding, community infection rates and outdoor temperatures from October 2020 to March 2021. Selected SARS-CoV-2 strains were genotyped.

Findings

There were 19 COVID-19 clusters on 14 wards at Hospital W during the six-month study period, lasting from two to 42 days (average, five days; median, 14 days) and involving an average of nine patients (range 1–24) and seven staff (range 0–17). COVID-19 clusters in Hospitals H and M reflected community infection rates. An outbreak management team implemented a control package including daily surveillance; ward closures; universal masking; screening; restricting staff and patient movement; enhanced cleaning; and improved ventilation. Forty clusters occurred across all three hospitals before a January window-opening policy, after which there were three during the remainder of the study.

Conclusion

The winter surge of COVID-19 clusters was multi-factorial, but clearly exacerbated by moving trauma patients around the hospital. An extended infection prevention and control package including enhanced natural ventilation helped reduce COVID-19 clusters in acute hospitals.

Current State of COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa: Lessons for Today and the Future

This study is a cross-sectional, observational analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa, to understand the progression of the disease across the continent. Published data on COVID-19 from 20 January 2020 to 21 June 2021 were obtained and analyzed. Case fatality ratios, as well as case growth rates and other indices were computed. On 21 June 2021, a total of 178,210,532 confirmed cases and 3,865,978 deaths had been recorded worldwide. While the Americas recorded the highest number of cases, Southern Africa recorded the majority of African cases. Fatality rate since from 20 February 2020 to 21 June 2021 was highest in the Americas (2.63%) and low in the South Eastern Asia region (1.39%), globally increasing from 2.17% at the end of January to 6.36% in May 2020 and decreasing to a range between 2.14% to 2.30% since January 2021. In Africa, the infection rate per 100,000 persons was up to 3090.18, while deaths per 100,000 and case fatality ratio were as high as 119.64 and 5.72%, respectively, among the 20 most-affected countries. The testing rate per million population was highest in Botswana (512,547.08). Fatality appears to be increasing in some regions of Africa. The rate of infection and fatality in Africa could still likely take an upward turn. Strict control measures are required, considering the continent's weak healthcare systems.