Mortality Related to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Multiple Causes of Death through Different Epidemic Waves in Veneto, Italy

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Healthcare Use, Exacerbations, and Mortality: A Population Study

Rationale: Existing work suggests that patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (pwCOPD) presented less frequently to the emergency department and were less likely to be hospitalized during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, but it is unclear if this was due to improved health and disease management or to increased barriers and/or avoidance of health care. Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the pandemic on inpatient and outpatient healthcare use, disease incidence, and mortality rates in pwCOPD. Methods: A retrospective population-based analysis using linked administrative datasets from Alberta, Canada 18 months before and after March 12, 2020 was conducted to measure hospitalization, emergency department and outpatient visits, and COPD outpatient exacerbations during these time periods. Mortality data were also analyzed before versus after the pandemic, taking confirmed COVID-19 infection within 30 days into account. Subgroup analysis based on COPD exacerbation risk stratification was undertaken to determine if healthcare use differed based on exacerbation risk. Finally, sex-based analysis of healthcare use during the pandemic was also completed. Results: Hospitalization or emergency department visits and outpatient treatment for acute exacerbations of COPD dropped, whereas total outpatient COPD visits, including both virtual and in person, increased during the pandemic for pwCOPD. The mortality rate increased even after adjusting for COVID-19-associated deaths. Sex-based subgroup analysis showed a greater drop in acute care use for females, but the rise in mortality was seen for both sexes, with men experiencing a greater rate of mortality than women. Conclusions: Overall, pwCOPD accessed acute care resources less during the pandemic, which may have contributed to a rise in non-COVID-19 all-cause mortality.

Unrecognised COVID-19 deaths in central Europe: The importance of cause-of-death certification for the COVID-19 burden assessment

OBJECTIVE

In Central Europe, the increase in mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic exceeded the number of deaths registered due to coronavirus disease. Excess deaths reported to causes other than COVID-19 may have been due to unrecognised coronavirus disease, the interruptions in care in the overwhelmed health care facilities, or socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and lockdowns. Death certificates provide exhaustive medical information, allowing us to assess the extent of unrecognised COVID-19 deaths.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 187,300 death certificates with a COVID-19 mention from Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Czechia, Lithuania and Poland, 2020-2021, was used. The two step analysis uses Cause of Death Association Indicators (CDAIs) and Contributing CDAIs to identify and measure the statistical strength of associations between COVID-19 and all other medical mentions.

RESULTS

15,700 deaths were reported with COVID-19 only as a contributing condition (comorbidity). In three cases out of four, a typical, statistically significant coronavirus complication or pre-existing condition was registered as the underlying causes of death. In Austria, Bavaria, Czechia and Lithuania the scale of COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18-27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death. Unrecognised coronavirus deaths were equivalent to the entire surplus of excess mortality beyond registered COVID-19 deaths in Austria and the Czech Republic, and its large proportion (25-31%) in Lithuania and Bavaria.

CONCLUSIONS

Death certificates with typical coronavirus complications or comorbidities as the underlying causes of death and contributing COVID-19 mentions were plausibly unrecognized coronavirus deaths.

Comparison of Azvudine and Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir and Combined Use in Patients with COVID-19

Purpose

To compare the effectiveness of azvudine and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir for the treatment of coronavirus disease (COVID-19).

Patients and Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from 576 patients with COVID-19, comprising 195 patients without antiviral therapy, 226 patients treated with azvudine, 114 patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 41 patients were treated with azvudine and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir concurrently. We compared their symptoms, mortality rates, and the length and cost of hospitalization.

Results

The incidence of symptoms was similar in patients treated with azvudine and in those treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. However, among patients experiencing weakness, the duration of weakness was significantly shorter in the azvudine group than in the nirmatrelvir/ritonavir group (P=0.029). Mortality did not differ significantly between the azvudine group and the nirmatrelvir/ritonavir group (18.14% vs.10.53%, P=0.068). Among "severe patients", the mortality rate was markedly lower in patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir than in patients treated with azvudine (16.92% vs.32.17%, P=0.026). In patients with hepatic insufficiency, those treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir had substantially lower mortality than those treated with azvudine (15.09% vs.34.25%, P=0.016). In addition, patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir had longer hospital stays (P=0.002) and higher hospital costs (P<0.001) than those receiving azvudine. Compared with patients treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir or azvudine alone, patients taking nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and azvudine concurrently had no significant improvement in survival (P>0.05), length of stay (P>0.05), or hospital costs (P>0.05).

Conclusion

Azvudine is recommended for patients with non-severe COVID-19 with weakness. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is recommended for patients with severe COVID-19, to reduce mortality, and it could be the best choice for patients with hepatic insufficiency. The concurrent use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and azvudine in patients with COVID-19 could be not recommended.

COPD-Related Mortality before and after Mass COVID-19 Vaccination in Northern Italy

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Little is known about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality from COPD at the population level. The objective was to investigate COPD-related mortality throughout different epidemic waves in Italy before and after the vaccination campaign, which started in late December 2020 and initially targeted the population aged ≥80 years.

METHODS

Death certificates of residents in Veneto (Northeastern Italy) aged ≥40 years between 2008 and 2021 were analyzed. Age-standardized morality rates were computed for death certificates with any mention of COPD. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were fitted to estimate the expected mortality during the pandemic. The results were stratified by age groups of 40-79 and ≥80 years, main comorbidities, and place of death.

RESULTS

COPD was mentioned in 3478 death certificates in 2020 (+14% compared to the 2018-2019 average) and in 3133 in 2021 (+3%). Age-standardized mortality rates increased in all age and sex groups in 2020; in 2021, mortality returned to pre-pandemic levels among the elderly but not in the population aged 40-79 years (+6%). GEE models confirmed this differential trend by age. COPD-related mortality peaks were observed, especially in the first pandemic waves, with COVID-19 identified as the underlying cause of death in a relevant proportion (up to 35% in November 2020-January 2021). Mortality with comorbid diabetes and hypertensive diseases slightly increased during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

COPD-related mortality increased at the beginning of the pandemic, due to deaths from COVID-19. The start of the vaccination campaign was associated with an important decline in COPD-related mortality, especially among the elderly, who first benefited from COVID-19 vaccines. The study findings show the role of mass vaccination in reducing COPD-related deaths during the later phases of the pandemic.

Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared

During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has been reported worldwide, but its magnitude has varied depending on methodological differences that hinder between-study comparability. Our aim was to estimate variability attributable to different methods, focusing on specific causes of death with different pre-pandemic trends. Monthly mortality figures observed in 2020 in the Veneto Region (Italy) were compared with those forecasted using: (1) 2018-2019 monthly average number of deaths; (2) 2015-2019 monthly average age-standardized mortality rates; (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models; (4) Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models. We analyzed deaths due to all-causes, circulatory diseases, cancer, and neurologic/mental disorders. Excess all-cause mortality estimates in 2020 across the four approaches were: +17.2% (2018-2019 average number of deaths), +9.5% (five-year average age-standardized rates), +15.2% (SARIMA), and +15.7% (GEE). For circulatory diseases (strong pre-pandemic decreasing trend), estimates were +7.1%, -4.4%, +8.4%, and +7.2%, respectively. Cancer mortality showed no relevant variations (ranging from -1.6% to -0.1%), except for the simple comparison of age-standardized mortality rates (-5.5%). The neurologic/mental disorders (with a pre-pandemic growing trend) estimated excess corresponded to +4.0%/+5.1% based on the first two approaches, while no major change could be detected based on the SARIMA and GEE models (-1.3%/+0.3%). The magnitude of excess mortality varied largely based on the methods applied to forecast mortality figures. The comparison with average age-standardized mortality rates in the previous five years diverged from the other approaches due to the lack of control over pre-existing trends. Differences across other methods were more limited, with GEE models probably representing the most versatile option.