A Simple Prognostic Score for Critical COVID-19 Derived from Patients without Comorbidities Performs Well in Unselected Patients

Personalized Assessment of Mortality Risk and Hospital Stay Duration in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Treated with Remdesivir: A Machine Learning Approach

Background: Despite advancements in vaccination, early treatments, and understanding of SARS-CoV-2, its impact remains significant worldwide. Many patients require intensive care due to severe COVID-19. Remdesivir, a key treatment option among viral RNA polymerase inhibitors, lacks comprehensive studies on factors associated with its effectiveness. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study in 2022, analyzing data from 252 hospitalized COVID-19 patients treated with remdesivir. Six machine learning algorithms were compared to predict factors influencing remdesivir's clinical benefits regarding mortality and hospital stay. Results: The extreme gradient boost (XGB) method showed the highest accuracy for both mortality (95.45%) and hospital stay (94.24%). Factors associated with worse outcomes in terms of mortality included limitations in life support, ventilatory support needs, lymphopenia, low albumin and hemoglobin levels, flu and/or coinfection, and cough. For hospital stay, factors included vaccine doses, lung density, pulmonary radiological status, comorbidities, oxygen therapy, troponin, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and asthenia. Conclusions: These findings underscore XGB's effectiveness in accurately categorizing COVID-19 patients undergoing remdesivir treatment.

Risk factors for the in‑hospital and 1‑year mortality of elderly patients hospitalized due to COVID‑19‑related pneumonia

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by poor outcomes and a high mortality rate, particularly among elderly patients. Since the beginning of the pandemic, an older age has been recognized as a critical risk factor for disease severity, with increasing mortality rates in each decade of life. This phenomenon may be a consequence of a poor previous health status, with a higher prevalence of pre-existing comorbidities and a higher degree of frailty. The majority of studies on the outcomes and risk factors of elderly patients refer to the first waves of the pandemic and the predictors of in-hospital mortality in these patients. The aim of the present study was to provide a detailed description of the clinical characteristics and management of a cohort of elderly patients (≥65 years of age) who were hospitalized with COVID-19-related pneumonia in all phases of the pandemic, presenting their outcomes, and investigating predictors of in-hospital and out-of-hospital mortality over a period of 1 year in this particularly vulnerable population. A total of 1,124 elderly patients (603 males, 53.7%) with a mean age of 78.51±7.42 years and a median Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) of 5 were included in the study. Of these patients, 104 (9.3%) were hospitalized during the period of prevalence of the original strain Wuhan, 385 (34.3%) were hospitalized during the period of prevalence of the Alpha variant, 221 (19.7%) were hospitalized during the period of prevalence of the Delta variant, and 414 (36.8%) were hospitalized during the period of prevalence of the Omicron variant. Overall, the in-hospital mortality rate was 33.4% (375 patients), and the 1-year mortality rate was 44.7% (502 patients). The majority of patients had not been vaccinated or had not completed full vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (843 patients, 75%), given the period of infection. Age, immature granulocytes, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, ferritin levels, chest X-ray score, as well as the absence of full vaccination, cough and fatigue, were statistically significantly and independently associated with in-hospital mortality, while age, LDH levels, ferritin levels, alanine aminotransferase levels, CCI, chest X-ray score, the absence of cough and fatigue, and a history of dementia were statistically significantly and independently associated with 1-year mortality. On the whole, the present study demonstrates that both the in-hospital mortality and 1-year mortality rates of elderly patients hospitalized due to COVID-19-related pneumonia are high.

Effectiveness of Oral Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir vs. Intravenous Three-Day Remdesivir in Preventing Progression to Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center, Prospective, Comparative, Real-Life Study

BACKGROUND

Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r) and three-day course remdesivir (3RDV) have been approved as early treatments for COVID-19 outpatients not requiring supplemental oxygen. Real-life data on the efficacy of antivirals among immunocompromised patients or directly comparing their effectiveness in preventing hospitalization and/or death are scarce.

METHODS

Prospective, observational study conducted in a tertiary care hospital, from 1 January 2022 until 15 March 2023, during the prevalence of the Omicron variant. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to account for differences between treatment groups.

RESULTS

We included 521, mainly immunocompromised (56%), patients in our analysis; 356 (68.3%) received 3RDV and 165 (31.7%) NMV/r. Overall, 15/521 (2.9%) patients met the primary end-point of hospitalization at 30 days (3RDV arm: 10/356, 2.8% vs. NMV/r arm: 5/165, 3%, p = 1). On IPTW-adjusted univariable analysis, the choice of treatment did not affect outcomes. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, we found that one (OR 0.26, 95%CI 0.07-0.99, p = 0.049) or two (OR 0.06, 95%CI 0.01-0.55, p = 0.014) vaccine booster shots reduced the risk for adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

In our patient population of high-risk, mainly immunocompromised, vaccinated patients during the prevalence of the Omicron variant, NMV/r and 3RDV were equally effective early treatments for the prevention of hospitalization and/or death.

Distinct type I interferon responses between younger women and older men contribute to the variability of COVID-19 outcomes: Hypothesis generating insights from COVID-19 convalescent individuals

Background/Objective

Older age and male sex have been consistently found to be associated with dismal outcomes among COVID-19 infected patients. In contrast, premenopausal females present the lowest mortality among adults infected by SARS-CoV-2. The goal of the present study was to investigate whether peripheral blood type I interferon (IFN) signature and interleukin (IL)-6 serum levels -previously shown to contribute to COVID-19-related outcomes in hospitalized patients- is shaped by demographic contributors among COVID-19 convalescent individuals.

Patients and Methods

Type I IFN-inducible genes in peripheral blood, as well as serum IL-6 levels were quantified in 61 COVID-19 convalescent healthy individuals (34 females, 27 males; age range 18–70 years, mean 35.7 ± 15.9 years) who recovered from COVID-19 without requiring hospitalization within a median of 3 months prior to inclusion in the present study. Among those, 17 were older than 50 years (11 males, 6 females) and 44 equal to or less than 50 years (16 males, 28 females). Expression analysis of type I IFN-inducible genes (MX-1, IFIT-1, IFI44) was performed by real time PCR and a type I IFN score, reflecting type I IFN peripheral activity, was calculated. IL-6 and C-reactive protein levels were determined by a commercially available ELISA.

Results

COVID-19 convalescent individuals older than 50 years exhibited significantly decreased peripheral blood type I IFN scores along with significantly increased IL-6 serum levels compared to their younger counterparts less than 50 years old (5.4 ± 4.3 vs 16.8 ± 24.7, p = 0.02 and 10.6 ± 16.9 vs 2.9 ± 8.0 ng/L, p = 0.03, respectively). Following sex stratification, peripheral blood type I IFN score was found to be significantly higher in younger females compared to both younger and older males (22.9 ± 29.2 vs 6.3 ± 4.6 vs 4.5 ± 3.7, p = 0.01 and p = 0.002, respectively). Regarding IL-6, an opposite pattern was observed, with the highest levels being detected among older males and the lowest levels among younger females (11.6 ± 18.9 vs 2.5 ± 7.8 ng/L, p = 0.03).

Conclusion

Constitutive higher type I IFN responses and dampened IL-6 production observed in younger women of premenopausal age, along with lower type I IFN responses and increased IL-6 levels in older males, could account for the discrete clinical outcomes seen in the two population groups, as consistently revealed in COVID-19 epidemiological studies.