The Role of Phylogenetics in Unravelling Patterns of HIV Transmission towards Epidemic Control: The Quebec Experience (2002-2020)

AUTO-TUNE: selecting the distance threshold for inferring HIV transmission clusters

Molecular surveillance of viral pathogens and inference of transmission networks from genomic data play an increasingly important role in public health efforts, especially for HIV-1. For many methods, the genetic distance threshold used to connect sequences in the transmission network is a key parameter informing the properties of inferred networks. Using a distance threshold that is too high can result in a network with many spurious links, making it difficult to interpret. Conversely, a distance threshold that is too low can result in a network with too few links, which may not capture key insights into clusters of public health concern. Published research using the HIV-TRACE software package frequently uses the default threshold of 0.015 substitutions/site for HIV pol gene sequences, but in many cases, investigators heuristically select other threshold parameters to better capture the underlying dynamics of the epidemic they are studying. Here, we present a general heuristic scoring approach for tuning a distance threshold adaptively, which seeks to prevent the formation of giant clusters. We prioritize the ratio of the sizes of the largest and the second largest cluster, maximizing the number of clusters present in the network. We apply our scoring heuristic to outbreaks with different characteristics, such as regional or temporal variability, and demonstrate the utility of using the scoring mechanism's suggested distance threshold to identify clusters exhibiting risk factors that would have otherwise been more difficult to identify. For example, while we found that a 0.015 substitutions/site distance threshold is typical for US-like epidemics, recent outbreaks like the CRF07_BC subtype among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China have been found to have a lower optimal threshold of 0.005 to better capture the transition from injected drug use (IDU) to MSM as the primary risk factor. Alternatively, in communities surrounding Lake Victoria in Uganda, where there has been sustained heterosexual transmission for many years, we found that a larger distance threshold is necessary to capture a more risk factor-diverse population with sparse sampling over a longer period of time. Such identification may allow for more informed intervention action by respective public health officials.

HIV subtypes and molecular transmission characteristics among elderly HIV-infected individuals aged 50 and above: a cross-sectional study in Huzhou City, Eastern China

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the HIV-1 subtypes and molecular transmission characteristics of HIV-infected older individuals aged 50 and above in Huzhou City, and provide a scientific basis for prevention and treatment strategies for them.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study with clustered molecular transmission network cases was performed, and basic epidemiological information was retrieved from the Chinese Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) Information System.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A molecular epidemiological study was conducted in 899 newly diagnosed HIV-infected individuals from January 2019 and March 2023 in Huzhou city, Zhejiang province, Eastern China. Out of these, HIV sequences were successfully obtained from 673 individuals, including 274 who were older individuals aged 50 and above.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and nested PCR were used to amplify the polymerase gene of HIV-1, and gene sequencing was performed. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to describe the association of clustered molecular transmission network cases.

RESULTS

In total, 274 valid HIV sequences of older individuals were obtained, which revealed 14 subtypes. Circulating recombinant forms (CRF) 07_BC accounted for 55.8% and CRF01_AE accounted for 20.1% of the subtypes. Data of 150 older individuals were included in the molecular transmission network, and the proportion of elderly individuals in clustered cases is 52.26% (150/287). The results of multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the older age group (60-82 years) and CRF07_BC subtype were associated with case clustering (transmission risk).

CONCLUSIONS

The key high-risk transmission network was mainly composed of the older age group (60-82 years) and CRF07_BC subtype. It is necessary to further strengthen AIDS health promotion and education for individuals aged 60 years and above, as well as for patients with the CRF07_BC subtype, to reduce HIV transmission and clustering risk.

Assessing transmission attribution risk from simulated sequencing data in HIV molecular epidemiology

BACKGROUND

HIV molecular epidemiology (ME) is the analysis of sequence data together with individual-level clinical, demographic, and behavioral data to understand HIV epidemiology. The use of ME has raised concerns regarding identification of the putative source in direct transmission events. This could result in harm ranging from stigma to criminal prosecution in some jurisdictions. Here we assessed the risks of ME using simulated HIV genetic sequencing data.

METHODS

We simulated social networks of men-who-have-sex-with-men, calibrating the simulations to data from San Diego. We used these networks to simulate consensus and next-generation sequence (NGS) data to evaluate the risks of identifying direct transmissions using different HIV sequence lengths, and population sampling depths. To identify the source of transmissions, we calculated infector probability and used phyloscanner software for the analysis of consensus and NGS data, respectively.

RESULTS

Consensus sequence analyses showed that the risk of correctly inferring the source (direct transmission) within identified transmission pairs was very small and independent of sampling depth. Alternatively, NGS analyses showed that identification of the source of a transmission was very accurate, but only for 6.5% of inferred pairs. False positive transmissions were also observed, where one or more unobserved intermediaries were present when compared to the true network.

CONCLUSION

Source attribution using consensus sequences rarely infers direct transmission pairs with high confidence but is still useful for population studies. In contrast, source attribution using NGS data was much more accurate in identifying direct transmission pairs, but for only a small percentage of transmission pairs analyzed.

AUTO-TUNE: SELECTING THE DISTANCE THRESHOLD FOR INFERRING HIV TRANSMISSION CLUSTERS

Molecular surveillance of viral pathogens and inference of transmission networks from genomic data play an increasingly important role in public health efforts, especially for HIV-1. For many methods, the genetic distance threshold used to connect sequences in the transmission network is a key parameter informing the properties of inferred networks. Using a distance threshold that is too high can result in a network with many spurious links, making it difficult to interpret. Conversely, a distance threshold that is too low can result in a network with too few links, which may not capture key insights into clusters of public health concern. Published research using the HIV-TRACE software package frequently uses the default threshold of 0.015 substitutions/site for HIV pol gene sequences, but in many cases, investigators heuristically select other threshold parameters to better capture the underlying dynamics of the epidemic they are studying. Here, we present a general heuristic scoring approach for tuning a distance threshold adaptively, which seeks to prevent the formation of giant clusters. We prioritize the ratio of the sizes of the largest and the second largest cluster, maximizing the number of clusters present in the network. We apply our scoring heuristic to outbreaks with different characteristics, such as regional or temporal variability, and demonstrate the utility of using the scoring mechanism's suggested distance threshold to identify clusters exhibiting risk factors that would have otherwise been more difficult to identify. For example, while we found that a 0.015 substitutions/site distance threshold is typical for US-like epidemics, recent outbreaks like the CRF07_BC subtype among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China have been found to have a lower optimal threshold of 0.005 to better capture the transition from injected drug use (IDU) to MSM as the primary risk factor. Alternatively, in communities surrounding Lake Victoria in Uganda, where there has been sustained hetero-sexual transmission for many years, we found that a larger distance threshold is necessary to capture a more risk factor-diverse population with sparse sampling over a longer period of time. Such identification may allow for more informed intervention action by respective public health officials.

Molecular epidemiology to aid virtual elimination of HIV transmission in Australia

The Global UNAIDS 95/95/95 targets aim to increase the percentage of persons who know their HIV status, receive antiretroviral therapy, and have achieved viral suppression. Achieving these targets requires efforts to improve the public health response to increase access to care for those living with HIV, identify those yet undiagnosed with HIV early, and increase access to prevention for those most at risk of HIV acquisition. HIV infections in Australia are among the lowest globally having recorded significant declines in new diagnoses in the last decade. However, the HIV epidemic has changed with an increasing proportion of newly diagnosed infections among those born outside Australia observed in the last five years. Thus, the current prevention efforts are not enough to achieve the UNAIDS targets and virtual elimination across all population groups. We believe both are possible by including molecular epidemiology in the public health response. Molecular epidemiology methods have been crucial in the field of HIV prevention, particularly in demonstrating the efficacy of treatment as prevention. Cluster detection using molecular epidemiology can provide opportunities for the real-time detection of new outbreaks before they grow, and cluster detection programs are now part of the public health response in the USA and Canada. Here, we review what molecular epidemiology has taught us about HIV evolution and spread. We summarize how we can use this knowledge to improve public health measures by presenting case studies from the USA and Canada. We discuss the successes and challenges of current public health programs in Australia, and how we could use cluster detection as an add-on to identify gaps in current prevention measures easier and respond quicker to growing clusters. Lastly, we raise important ethical and legal challenges that need to be addressed when HIV genotypic data is used in combination with personal data.

HantaNet: A New MicrobeTrace Application for Hantavirus Classification, Genomic Surveillance, Epidemiology and Outbreak Investigations

Hantaviruses zoonotically infect humans worldwide with pathogenic consequences and are mainly spread by rodents that shed aerosolized virus particles in urine and feces. Bioinformatics methods for hantavirus diagnostics, genomic surveillance and epidemiology are currently lacking a comprehensive approach for data sharing, integration, visualization, analytics and reporting. With the possibility of hantavirus cases going undetected and spreading over international borders, a significant reporting delay can miss linked transmission events and impedes timely, targeted public health interventions. To overcome these challenges, we built HantaNet, a standalone visualization engine for hantavirus genomes that facilitates viral surveillance and classification for early outbreak detection and response. HantaNet is powered by MicrobeTrace, a browser-based multitool originally developed at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to visualize HIV clusters and transmission networks. HantaNet integrates coding gene sequences and standardized metadata from hantavirus reference genomes into three separate gene modules for dashboard visualization of phylogenetic trees, viral strain clusters for classification, epidemiological networks and spatiotemporal analysis. We used 85 hantavirus reference datasets from GenBank to validate HantaNet as a classification and enhanced visualization tool, and as a public repository to download standardized sequence data and metadata for building analytic datasets. HantaNet is a model on how to deploy MicrobeTrace-specific tools to advance pathogen surveillance, epidemiology and public health globally.

Not all clusters are equal: dynamics of molecular HIV-1 clusters in a statewide Rhode Island epidemic

OBJECTIVES

Molecular epidemiology is a powerful tool to characterize HIV epidemics and prioritize public health interventions. Typically, HIV clusters are assumed to have uniform patterns over time. We hypothesized that assessment of cluster evolution would reveal distinct cluster behavior, possibly improving molecular epidemic characterization, towards disrupting HIV transmission.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

METHODS

Annual phylogenies were inferred by cumulative aggregation of all available HIV-1 pol sequences of individuals with HIV-1 in Rhode Island (RI) between 1990 and 2020, representing a statewide epidemic. Molecular clusters were detected in annual phylogenies by strict and relaxed cluster definition criteria, and the impact of annual newly-diagnosed HIV-1 cases to the structure of individual clusters was examined over time.

RESULTS

Of 2153 individuals, 31% (strict criteria) - 47% (relaxed criteria) clustered. Longitudinal tracking of individual clusters identified three cluster types: normal, semi-normal and abnormal. Normal clusters (83-87% of all identified clusters) showed predicted growing/plateauing dynamics, with approximately three-fold higher growth rates in large (15-18%) vs. small (∼5%) clusters. Semi-normal clusters (1-2% of all clusters) temporarily fluctuated in size and composition. Abnormal clusters (11-16% of all clusters) demonstrated collapses and re-arrangements over time. Borderline values of cluster-defining parameters explained dynamics of non-normal clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Comprehensive tracing of molecular HIV clusters over time in a statewide epidemic identified distinct cluster types, likely missed in cross-sectional analyses, demonstrating that not all clusters are equal. This knowledge challenges current perceptions of consistent cluster behavior over time and could improve molecular surveillance of local HIV epidemics to better inform public health strategies.

Disruptions of sexually transmitted and blood borne infections testing services during the COVID-19 pandemic: accounts of service providers in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 in Canada, the availability of sexual health services including sexually transmitted and blood-borne infection (STBBI) testing has been negatively impacted in the province of Ontario due to their designation as "non-essential" health services. As a result, many individuals wanting to access sexual healthcare continued to have unmet sexual health needs throughout the pandemic. In response to this, sexual health service providers have adopted alternative models of testing, such as virtual interventions and self-sampling/testing. Our objective was to investigate service providers' experiences of disruptions to STBBI testing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada, and their acceptability of alternative testing services.

METHODS

Between October 2020-February 2021, we conducted semi-structured virtual focus groups (3) and in-depth interviews (11) with a diverse group of sexual health service providers (n = 18) including frontline workers, public health workers, sexual health nurses, physicians, and sexual health educators across Ontario. As part of a larger community-based research study, data collection and analysis were led by three Peer Researchers and a Community Advisory Board was consulted throughout the research process. Transcripts were transcribed verbatim and analysed with NVivo software following grounded theory.

RESULTS

Service providers identified the reallocation of public health resources and staff toward COVID-19 management, and closures, reduced hours, and lower in-person capacities at sexual health clinics as the causes for a sharp decline in access to sexual health testing services. Virtual and self-sampling interventions for STBBI testing were adopted to increase service capacity while reducing risks of COVID-19 transmission. Participants suggested that alternative models of testing were more convenient, accessible, safe, comfortable, cost-effective, and less onerous compared to traditional clinic-based models, and that they helped fill the gaps in testing caused by the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Acceptability of virtual and self-sampling interventions for STBBI testing was high among service providers, and their lived experiences of implementing such services demonstrated their feasibility in the context of Ontario. There is a need to approach sexual health services as an essential part of healthcare and to sustain sexual health services that meet the needs of diverse individuals.

Community Insights in Phylogenetic HIV Research: The CIPHR Project Protocol

Inferring HIV transmission networks from HIV sequences is gaining popularity in the field of HIV molecular epidemiology. However, HIV sequences are often analyzed at distance from those affected by HIV epidemics, namely without the involvement of communities most affected by HIV. These remote analyses often mean that knowledge is generated in absence of lived experiences and socio-economic realities that could inform the ethical application of network-derived information in 'real world' programmes. Procedures to engage communities are noticeably absent from the HIV molecular epidemiology literature. Here we present our team's protocol for engaging community activists living in Nairobi, Kenya in a knowledge exchange process - The CIPHR Project (Community Insights in Phylogenetic HIV Research). Drawing upon a community-based participatory approach, our team will (1) explore the possibilities and limitations of HIV molecular epidemiology for key population programmes, (2) pilot a community-based HIV molecular study, and (3) co-develop policy guidelines on conducting ethically safe HIV molecular epidemiology. Critical dialogue with activist communities will offer insight into the potential uses and abuses of using such information to sharpen HIV prevention programmes. The outcome of this process holds importance to the development of policy frameworks that will guide the next generation of the global response.

RNA Viruses, Pandemics and Anticipatory Preparedness

RNA viruses are likely to cause future pandemics and therefore we must create and organize a deep knowledge of these viruses to prevent and manage this risk. Assuming prevention will fail, at least once, we must be prepared to manage a future pandemic using all resources available. We emphasize the importance of having safe vaccine candidates and safe broad-spectrum antivirals ready for rapid clinical translation. Additionally, we must have similar tools to be ready for outbreaks of RNA viruses among animals and plants. Finally, similar coordination should be accomplished for other pathogens with pandemic potential.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 among Prisoners in Central Brazil and Evidence of Transmission Clusters

Higher rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection have been detected in prisoners when compared with the general population, but research into HIV molecular epidemiology and its transmission network has been lacking among them. Thus, this study aimed to verify potential HIV molecular transmission networks among prisoners. In addition, we aimed to describe the mutations related to antiretroviral resistance in these isolates. Thus, we conducted a cross-sectional survey from 2013 to 2018 in prisons in Central-Western Brazil, and the final sampling composed of 84 prisoners. Proviral DNA was extracted from each whole blood sample followed by amplification of the partial polymerase gene and sequencing. Forty-nine sequences (58.3%) were classified as subtype B, followed by C (14.3%), D, and F1 (2.4% each). A complex and dynamic HIV-1 epidemic is observed in the prisons, as 25% of the sequences were recombinant forms. We detected 15 HIV transmission clusters composed of at least two sequences, that included not only prisoners but also individuals from the general population from the same State with a variety of risk behaviors. Thirty-two percent (32.0%) of treatment-experienced prisoners had at least one drug resistance mutation (DRM), while transmitted DRMs were found in 5.9% of the prisoners. We highlight the urgent need for routine surveillance of HIV-1 infection including resistance genotypic tests considering the high disease burden, risky behaviors inside prisons, and the dynamic relationship of prisoners with the outside community.