COVID-19 Severity and Mortality in Two Pandemic Waves in Poland and Predictors of Poor Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Hospitalized Young Adults

Predictors of the severity of the course of COVID-19: demographic factors, clinical signs and laboratory markers

Introduction. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global healthcare, with high mortality and severe complications remaining a major concern. Understanding the predictors of COVID-19 severity may improve patient management and outcomes. While considerable research has focused on the pathogenesis of the virus and vaccine development, the identification of reliable demographic, clinical and laboratory predictors of severe disease remains critical.Hypothesis. Specific demographic factors, clinical signs and laboratory markers can reliably predict the severity of COVID-19. A comprehensive analysis integrating these predictors could provide a more accurate prognosis and guide timely interventions.Aim. The aim of this study is to identify and evaluate the demographic, clinical and laboratory factors that can serve as reliable predictors of severe COVID-19, thereby aiding in the prediction and prevention of adverse outcomes.Methodology. The methods of analysis, synthesis, generalization and descriptive statistics were used to achieve this objective.Results. The analysis showed that demographic factors such as age over 60 and male sex are significant predictors of severe COVID-19. Clinical predictors include respiratory symptoms, especially dyspnoea, and comorbidities such as hypertension, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, respiratory failure, asthma, diabetes mellitus and obesity. Laboratory markers with high prognostic value include elevated levels of C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, ferritin, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, d-dimer, aspartate aminotransferase enzyme and decreased lymphocyte count.Conclusion. The study concludes that a holistic approach incorporating demographic, clinical and laboratory data is essential to accurately predict the severity of COVID-19. This integrated model may significantly improve patient prognosis by facilitating early identification of high-risk individuals and allowing timely, targeted interventions. The results highlight the importance of comprehensive patient assessment in managing and mitigating the impact of COVID-19.

Integration of individualized and population-level molecular epidemiology data to model COVID-19 outcomes

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with enhanced transmissibility and immune escape have emerged periodically throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but the impact of these variants on disease severity has remained unclear. In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, we examined the association between SARS-CoV-2 clade and patient outcome over a two-year period in Chicago, Illinois. Between March 2020 and March 2022, 14,252 residual diagnostic specimens were collected from SARS-CoV-2-positive inpatients and outpatients alongside linked clinical and demographic metadata, of which 2,114 were processed for viral whole-genome sequencing. When controlling for patient demographics and vaccination status, several viral clades were associated with risk for hospitalization, but this association was negated by the inclusion of population-level confounders, including case count, sampling bias, and shifting standards of care. These data highlight the importance of integrating non-virological factors into disease severity and outcome models for the accurate assessment of patient risk.

Association of serum vitamin D concentration with the final course of hospitalization in patients with COVID-19

Background

Vitamin D deficiency is a substantial public health problem. The present study evaluated the association between vitamin D concentration and hospitalization and mortality risk in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19).

Methods

This study used the COronavirus in LOwer Silesia (COLOS) dataset collected between February 2020 and June 2021. The medical records of 474 patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, and whose vitamin D concentration was measured, were analyzed.

Results

We determined a significant difference in vitamin D concentration between discharged patients and those who died during hospitalization (p = 0.0096). We also found an effect of vitamin D concentration on the risk of death in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. As vitamin D concentration increased, the odds ratio (OR) for death slightly decreased (OR = 0.978; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.540-0.669). The vitamin D concentration cutoff point was 15.40 ng/ml. In addition, patients with COVID-19 and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations < 30 ng/ml had a lower survival rate than those with serum 25(OH)D ≥ 30 ng/ml (log-rank test p = 0.0018). Moreover, a Cox regression model showed that patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and higher vitamin D concentrations had a 2.8% reduced risk of mortality (hazard ratio HR = 0.972; CI = 0.95-0,99; p = 0.0097).

Conclusions

The results indicate an association between 25(OH)D levels in patients with COVID-19 and the final course of hospitalization and risk of death.

Selected Predictors of COVID-19 Mortality in the Hospitalised Patient Population in a Single-Centre Study in Poland

Background: The correct analysis of COVID-19 predictors could substantially improve the clinical decision-making process and enable emergency department patients at higher mortality risk to be identified. Methods: We retrospectively explored the relationship between some demographic and clinical factors, such as age and sex, as well as the levels of ten selected factors, namely, CRP, D-dimer, ferritin, LDH, RDW-CV, RDW-SD, procalcitonin, blood oxygen saturation, lymphocytes, and leukocytes, and COVID-19 mortality risk in 150 adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Provincial Specialist Hospital in Zgierz, Poland (this hospital was transformed, in March 2020, into a hospital admitting COVID-19 cases only). All blood samples for testing were collected in the emergency room before admission. The length of stay in the intensive care unit and length of hospitalisation were also analysed. Results: The only factor that was not significantly related to mortality was the length of stay in the intensive care unit. The odds of dying were significantly lower in males, patients with a longer hospital stay, patients with higher lymphocyte levels, and patients with higher blood oxygen saturation, while the chances of dying were significantly higher in older patients; patients with higher RDW-CV and RDW-SD levels; and patients with higher levels of leukocytes, CRP, ferritin, procalcitonin, LDH, and D-dimers. Conclusions: Six potential predictors of mortality were included in the final model: age, RDW-CV, procalcitonin, and D-dimers level; blood oxygen saturation; and length of hospitalisation. The results obtained from this study suggest that a final predictive model with high accuracy in mortality prediction (over 90%) was successfully built. The suggested model could be used for therapy prioritization.

Assessing the Outcomes of Patients with Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection after Therapeutic Plasma Exchange by Number of TPE Sessions

The high mortality risk in severe SARS-CoV-2 infections is tightly correlated to the extreme elevation of inflammatory markers. This acute accumulation of inflammatory proteins can be cleared using plasma exchange (TPE), commonly known as plasmapheresis, although the available data on performing TPE in COVID-19 patients is limited regarding the optimal treatment protocol. The purpose for this study was to examine the efficacy and outcomes of TPE based on different treatment methods. A thorough database search was performed to identify patients from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Clinical Hospital of Infectious Diseases and Pneumology between March 2020 and March 2022 with severe COVID-19 that underwent at least one session of TPE. A total of 65 patients satisfied the inclusion criteria and were eligible for TPE as a last resort therapy. Of these, 41 patients received 1 TPE session, 13 received 2 TPE sessions, and the remaining 11 received more than 2 TPE sessions. It was observed that IL-6, CRP, and ESR decreased significantly after all sessions were performed in all three groups, with the highest decrease of IL-6 in those who received >2 TPE sessions (from 305.5 pg/mL to 156.0 pg/mL). Interestingly, there was a significant increase in leucocyte levels after TPE, but there was no significant difference in MAP changes, SOFA score, APACHE 2 score, or the PaO2/FiO2 ratio. The ROX index was significantly higher among the patients who underwent more than two TPE sessions, with an average of 11.4, compared to 6.5 in group 1 and 7.4 in group 2, which increased significantly after TPE. Nevertheless, the mortality rate was very high (72.3%), and the Kaplan-Meier analysis identified no significant difference in survival according to the number of TPE sessions. TPE can be used as last resort salvage therapy that can be regarded as an alternative treatment method when the standard management of these patients fails. It significantly decreases the inflammatory status measured via IL-6, CRP, and WBC, as well as demonstrating an improvement of the clinical status measured via PaO2/FiO2, and duration of hospitalization. However, the survival rate does not seem to change with the number of TPE sessions. Based on the survival analysis, one session of TPE as last resort treatment in patients with severe COVID-19 proved to have the same effect as repeated TPE sessions of 2 or more.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the modified nutrition risk in the critically ill (mNUTRIC) score in critically ill patients affected by COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU)

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is a very harmful pandemic, and its recovery process is highly influenced by nutritional status; however, an appropriate nutritional scale has not yet been proposed for these patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC) score in critically ill patients affected by COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study performed on 204 critically ill patients affected by COVID-19 admitted to the ICU wards. Evaluated indicators include the mNUTRIC Score as well as demographic, and biochemical indicators.

RESULTS

A high percentage of COVID-19 patients (67.2%) had severe disease. Hospital and ICU stay (p > 0.001) and PH (p > 0.001) values were significantly lower in non-survivors than in survivors. mNUTRIC score (p > 0.001), PCO2 (p = 0.003), and CRP levels (p = 0.021) were significantly higher in non-survivors than survivors. mNUTRIC score had a direct correlation with age (p > 0.001), AST (p = 0.000), LDH (p = 0.026), and CRP (p = 0.014) and an inverse correlation with hospital duration (p = 0.031), albumin (p = 0.003) and PH (p < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a non-significant correlation between the mNUTRIC score and mortality chance (OR = 1.085, 95%CI [0.83, 1.42], p = 0.552). While, patients with more severe COVID-19 disease (OR = 8.057, 95%CI [1.33, 48.64], p = 0.023) and higher PCO2 (OR = 1.042, 95%CI [1.01, 1.08], p = 0.023) levels had higher odds of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings revealed that COVID-19 patients with higher CRP levels and lower PH had higher mortality and poor nutritional condition. Moreover, there was a non-significant association between the mNUTRIC score and mortality chance.

The Clinical Course and Outcomes of Patients Hospitalized Due to COVID-19 during Three Pandemic Waves in Poland: A Single Center Observational Study

Background: The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Poland was reported on 4 March 2020. We aim to compare the clinical course and outcomes of patients hospitalized in the Hospital for Infectious Diseases in Warsaw due to COVID-19 during three pandemic waves. Materials and methods: The medical data were collected for all patients diagnosed with COVID-19 hospitalized in our hospital from 6 March 2020 till 30 November 2021. COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed by nasopharyngeal swabs using real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (RT-PCR) or SARS-CoV-2 antigen test. COVID-19 waves were defined based on the number and dynamics of cases. Results: Altogether, 2138 patient medical records were analyzed. The majority of the cohort was male (1235/2138, 57.8%), and the median age was 65 years [IQR: 50−74 years]. Patients hospitalized during the third wave had lower oxygen saturation on admission (p < 0.001) and were more likely to receive oxygen supplementation (p < 0.001). Serious complications, including pneumothorax (p < 0.001) and thromboembolic complications (p < 0.001), intensive care unit admission (p = 0.034), and death (p = 0.003), occurred more often in patients of the third wave. Conclusions: During the third wave, patients in our cohort experienced a more severe course of the disease and poorer outcomes.

Dapsone Lowers Neutrophil to Lymphocyte Ratio and Mortality in COVID-19 Patients Admitted to the ICU

Some physicians use dapsone as part of the standard treatment of severe COVID-19 patients entering the ICU, though some do not. To obtain an indication of whether dapsone is helping or not, we undertook a retrospective chart review of 29 consecutive ICU COVID-19 patients receiving dapsone and 30 not receiving dapsone. As we previously reported, of those given dapsone, 9/29 (30%) died, while of those not given dapsone, 18/30 (60%) died. We looked back on that data set to determine if there might be basic laboratory findings in these patients that might give an indication of a mechanism by which dapsone was acting. We found that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio decreased in 48% of those given dapsone and in 30% of those not given dapsone. We concluded that dapsone might be lowering that ratio. We then reviewed collected data on neutrophil related inflammation pathways on which dapsone might act as presented here. As this was not a controlled study, many variables prevent drawing any conclusions from this work; a formal, randomized controlled study of dapsone in severe COVID-19 is warranted.