Global Transmission Dynamics of Measles in the Measles Elimination Era

Complex interplay of science reasoning and vaccine hesitancy among parents in Shanghai, China

The psychosocial underpinnings of vaccine hesitancy are complex. Research is needed to pinpoint the exact reasons why people hesitate to vaccinate themselves or their children against vaccine-preventable diseases. One possible reason are concerns that arise from a misunderstanding of vaccine science. We examined the impact of scientific reasoning on vaccine hesitancy and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination intent through a cross-sectional study of parents of vaccine-eligible children (N = 399) at immunization clinics in Shanghai, China. We assessed the relationship between science reasoning and both vaccine hesitancy and HPV vaccine acceptance using general additive models. We found a significant association between scientific reasoning and education level, with those with less than a high school education having a significantly lower scientific reasoning that those with a college education (ß = -1.31, p-value = 0.002). However, there was little evidence of a relationship between scientific reasoning and vaccine hesitancy. Scientific reasoning therefore appears not to exert primary influence on the formation of vaccine attitudes among the respondents surveyed. We suggest that research on vaccine hesitancy continues working to identify the styles of reasoning parents engage in when determining whether or not to vaccinate their children. This research could inform the development and implementation of tailored vaccination campaigns.

Mind your Ps: A probabilistic model to aid the interpretation of molecular epidemiology data

Background

Assessing relatedness of pathogen sequences in clinical samples is a core goal in molecular epidemiology. Tools for Bayesian analysis of phylogeny, such as the BEAST software package, have been typically used in the analysis of sequence/time data in public health. However, they are computationally-, time-, and knowledge-intensive, demanding resources that many laboratories do not have available or cannot allocate frequently.

Methods

To evaluate a faster and simpler alternative method to support the routine interpretation of sequence data for epidemiology, we obtained sequences for two regions in the measles virus genome, N-450 and MF-NCR, from patient samples of genotypes B3, D4 and D8 taken between 2011 and 2017 in the UK and Romania. A mathematical model incorporating time, possible shared ancestry and the Poisson distribution describing the number of expected substitutions at a given time point was developed to exclude epidemiological relatedness between pairs of sequences. The model was validated against the commonly used Bayesian phylogenetic method using an independent dataset collected in 2017–19.

Findings

We demonstrate that our model, using time and sequence information to predict whether two samples may be related within a given time frame, minimises the risk of erroneous exclusion of relatedness. An easy-to-use implementation in the form of a guide and spreadsheet is provided for convenient application.

Interpretation

The proposed model only requires a previously calculated substitution rate for the locus and pathogen of interest. It allows for an informed but quick decision on the likelihood of relatedness between two samples within a time frame, without the need for phylogenetic reconstruction, thus facilitating rapid epidemiological interpretation of sequence data.

Funding

This work was funded by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA). The World Health Organization European Regional Office funded Aurora Fernández-García and Mihaela Lazar training visits to UKHSA.

[Comprehensive understanding of viral diseases by field, molecular, and theoretical studies]

Viral diseases are responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality and continue to be of great concern. To ensure better control of viral infections, I have been tackling the issue as a medical doctor, an academic researcher, and a public health officer. Especially, I have studied respiratory viruses, such as the influenza virus, from the perspectives of molecular virology, theoretical modeling, and field epidemiology. RNA biology and its involvement with viral life-cycle and pathogenicity are central topics of molecular study, while mathematical models of transmission dynamics and phylogenetics are major components of theoretical research. As a field epidemiologist, I work with public health authorities during viral disease outbreaks. I was deployed to West Africa for viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak responses as a WHO consultant, and I have served the Japanese Government as an advisor for COVID-19 countermeasures. I would like to integrate various approaches from clinical medicine to epidemiology, theoretical modeling, evolutionary biology, genetics, and molecular biology in my research. In that way, we could gain a more comprehensive understanding of viral diseases. I hope these findings will help ease the disease burden of viral infections around the world.

Sustaining Transmission in Different Host Species: The Emblematic Case of Sarcoptes scabiei

Some pathogens sustain transmission in multiple different host species, but how this epidemiologically important feat is achieved remains enigmatic. Sarcoptes scabiei is among the most host generalist and successful of mammalian parasites. We synthesize pathogen and host traits that mediate sustained transmission and present cases illustrating three transmission mechanisms (direct, indirect, and combined). The pathogen traits that explain the success of S. scabiei include immune response modulation, on-host movement capacity, off-host seeking behaviors, and environmental persistence. Sociality and host density appear to be key for hosts in which direct transmission dominates, whereas in solitary hosts, the use of shared environments is important for indirect transmission. In social den-using species, combined direct and indirect transmission appears likely. Empirical research rarely considers the mechanisms enabling S. scabiei to become endemic in host species—more often focusing on outbreaks. Our review may illuminate parasites’ adaptation strategies to sustain transmission through varied mechanisms across host species.

Epidemiological and molecular characteristics of a measles outbreak in northern Vietnam, 2013-2014

BACKGROUND

A nationwide measles outbreak occurred in Vietnam between 2013 and 2014.

OBJECTIVES

To provide an overview on the 2013-2014 measles outbreak in northern Vietnam using epidemiological and molecular analysis of the measles virus (MeV).

STUDY DESIGN

Epidemiological information was collected from all suspected cases of measles/rubella. Serum and/or throat swabs were collected for laboratory confirmation of measles. MeV genomes were detected and sequenced for phylogenetic analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 9577 confirmed measles cases were reported in northern Vietnam with an incidence rate of 116.4/1,000,000 population. Of these, approximately 76.3% had unvaccinated or unknown vaccination history and 55.7% were under five years old. The outbreak started in a minority population from the mountainous area bordering Lao PDR and China and exploded in high-density population areas. Molecular analysis of MeV revealed co-circulation of genotypes H1 and D8, with H1 as the predominant strain, and divided into two clusters: cluster 1, sharing high similarity with those detected in China and Lao PDR, and cluster 2, circulating locally with unidentified origin. The minor D8 strains belonged to the D8-Frankfurt cluster.

CONCLUSION

The outbreak originated in and spread from a population with limited access to vaccines. Molecular analysis revealed co-circulation of MeVs with three different origins during the outbreak. This is the first report to provide an overview of the 2013-2014 measles outbreak in northern Vietnam, demonstrating the need for vaccination strategies against measles that are tailored to local conditions with enhanced molecular surveillance to achieve measles elimination.

Viruses That Can and Cannot Coexist With Humans and the Future of SARS-CoV-2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has become a worldwide pandemic. Many projections concerning the outbreak, such as the estimated number of cases and deaths in upcoming months, have been made available. However, what happens to the virus after the pandemic subsides has not been fully explored. In this article, we discuss the ways that past and present human viruses have emerged via zoonotic transmission, the mechanisms that they have acquired the ability for effective transmission among humans, the process to sustain a chain of transmission to coexist with humans, and the factors important for complete containment leading to eradication of viruses. These aspects of viral disease may provide clues for the future path that SARS-CoV-2 might take in relation to human infection.

Measles vaccination of young infants in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Although global progress in measles control has been realized, achieving elimination has proven difficult in many regions of the world. China has adopted a goal of measles elimination but recent outbreaks predominantly affecting children <8 months who are ineligible for vaccination and incompletely protected by maternal antibodies has impeded progress. We assess the cost-effectiveness of adding an initial measles vaccine dose in China to earlier than the currently recommended 8 months of age.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing the costs and health benefits associated with adding a measles vaccine dose to the routine schedule at 4, 5, 6 or 7 months compared to the current recommendation for the first dose at age 8 months. A decision analytic model was developed in Microsoft Excel, including five non-severe and two fatal health outcomes associated with measles infection. Model parameters were informed by the literature and surveillance data. Future costs and health benefits were discounted at 3%. Primary outcomes included costs, Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime time horizon.

RESULTS

Lowering the recommended age for initiating the measles vaccination series to address susceptibility in children <8 months provided incremental health gains compared to minimal costs at the individual-level. The ICER was most favorable ($232.70 per QALY gain) for administering an initial dose at 4 months of age due to fewer incremental program costs when shifting measles administration to an immunization visit already established under the Chinese vaccination program.

CONCLUSION

We found potential beneficial health gains at a minimum cost associated with adding an earlier measles dose <8 months of age in China. Further investigation about disease transmission dynamics is required to more fully assess the tradeoffs of administering measles at a younger age to infants in China.

The Role of Autophagy and Autophagy Receptor NDP52 in Microbial Infections

Autophagy is a general protective mechanism for maintaining homeostasis in eukaryotic cells, regulating cellular metabolism, and promoting cell survival by degrading and recycling cellular components under stress conditions. The degradation pathway that is mediated by autophagy receptors is called selective autophagy, also named as xenophagy. Autophagy receptor NDP52 acts as a ‘bridge’ between autophagy and the ubiquitin-proteasome system, and it also plays an important role in the process of selective autophagy. Pathogenic microbial infections cause various diseases in both humans and animals, posing a great threat to public health. Increasing evidence has revealed that autophagy and autophagy receptors are involved in the life cycle of pathogenic microbial infections. The interaction between autophagy receptor and pathogenic microorganism not only affects the replication of these microorganisms in the host cell, but it also affects the host’s immune system. This review aims to discuss the effects of autophagy on pathogenic microbial infection and replication, and summarizes the mechanisms by which autophagy receptors interact with microorganisms. While considering the role of autophagy receptors in microbial infection, NDP52 might be a potential target for developing effective therapies to treat pathogenic microbial infections.

Epidemiology and features of the measles course in children during the outbreak of 2018–2019 in the city of Mariupol

In 2017, Ukraine ranked in the top three among European countries in terms of measles incidence, and ranked first in measles growth in 2018. High morbidity, mortality and development of complications make the problem of knowing features of the measles clinical course, timely diagnosis and active prevention highly relevant. The purpose of the research is to study the dynamics of the incidence and clinical features of measles in children during the outbreak of 2018–2019 in the city of Mariupol, Donetsk region. A peculiarity of the measles outbreak in 2018–2019 in Mariupol is prevalence of the disease in preschool children (60.4%), inclu­ding 30.2% – those under one year of age; low vaccination rate: 52.3% of children unvaccinated; only 22.2% of children were vaccinated twice, according to the schedule. In all age groups, a moderately severe measles course prevailed (69.8%). The clinical course of measles in preschool and school age children had definitive features. Thus, Belsky–Filatov–Koplik spots were observed three times more frequently in preschool children than in schoolchildren (63.9% and 23.3%, respectively). Abdominal pain and diarrhea were only observed in children under 6 years of age (30.2%). Skin pigmentation was absent in children under one year of age and was detected in preschool and school-age children (69.8%). Skin sloughing was only observed in schoolchildren (10.4%). Severe disease course occurred in patients of all ages (29.3%), but children aged under one year and preschool children with severe disease were two times more numerous than those of the school age. Among the observed complications, the vast majority were associated with the respiratory organs: pneumonia (38.3%), subcutaneous emphysema (1.7%), bronchitis (53.2%), laryngitis (3.3%), otitis media (5%). No fatalities were observed. The city should form a commitment to immunization, restore public trust in vaccination, using all forms and means of information, and develop a program to implement the vaccination schedule into practice.

Causes and Consequences of Spatial Within-Host Viral Spread

The spread of viral pathogens both between and within hosts is inherently a spatial process. While the spatial aspects of viral spread at the epidemiological level have been increasingly well characterized, the spatial aspects of viral spread within infected hosts are still understudied. Here, with a focus on influenza A viruses (IAVs), we first review experimental studies that have shed light on the mechanisms and spatial dynamics of viral spread within hosts. These studies provide strong empirical evidence for highly localized IAV spread within hosts. Since mathematical and computational within-host models have been increasingly used to gain a quantitative understanding of observed viral dynamic patterns, we then review the (relatively few) computational modeling studies that have shed light on possible factors that structure the dynamics of spatial within-host IAV spread. These factors include the dispersal distance of virions, the localization of the immune response, and heterogeneity in host cell phenotypes across the respiratory tract. While informative, we find in these studies a striking absence of theoretical expectations of how spatial dynamics may impact the dynamics of viral populations. To mitigate this, we turn to the extensive ecological and evolutionary literature on range expansions to provide informed theoretical expectations. We find that factors such as the type of density dependence, the frequency of long-distance dispersal, specific life history characteristics, and the extent of spatial heterogeneity are critical factors affecting the speed of population spread and the genetic composition of spatially expanding populations. For each factor that we identified in the theoretical literature, we draw parallels to its analog in viral populations. We end by discussing current knowledge gaps related to the spatial component of within-host IAV spread and the potential for within-host spatial considerations to inform the development of disease control strategies.

Global spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of measles virus clade D genotypes in the context of the measles elimination goal 2020 in India

Measles viruses (MeV) circulating in India mainly belong to genoypes D4 and D8 of clade D. In the context of measles elimination goal 2020 in India, molecular clock and phylogeography studies would help to identify the timescales of evolution and track the transmission pathways of MeV. We used nucleoprotein gene sequences (n = 756) from GenBank, representing 86 countries (1973-2016), to study the spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of clade D. Genotype D4 was introduced into India around 1991 and genotype D8 around 1994. Recent transmissions of the D4 genotype of measles virus (MeV) were noted from India to the United States of America and East Asia region while D8 genotype importations from North America were noted in recent years.

Measles during arbovirus outbreak: a diagnostic challenge

Introduction.

Dengue fever is a major public health problem in New Caledonia, like in many Pacific Islands Countries and territories. In 2017 New Caledonia faced multiple circulations of arboviruses with a major outbreak of dengue and a co-circulating Zika virus. New Caledonia is considered as a non-endemic territory for measles since the mid 1990’s.

Case presentation.

A 41-year-old male presented fever, headache, sinusitis and exanthematous maculopapular rash. A clinical diagnosis of arbovirus was first suspected due to the local epidemic context. A few days later the patient was admitted to the main hospital. The real time RT-PCR for dengue and Zika virus were negative on the first blood sample. A drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) syndrome and other infectious diseases including measles were then suspected. ELISA tests for measles were positive for IgM and equivocal for IgG. A throat swab was immediately shipped to a reference laboratory for measles nucleic acid testing. After a week, the patient recovered and the presence of measles RNA was confirmed. No secondary cases were reported among contacts of the patient and the source of his infection could not be ascertained.

Conclusion.

Diagnosis of measles during an arbovirus outbreak in a country where measles disease is rare can be a pitfall for healthcare professionals. The introduction of measles via returned travellers or tourists from areas where measles remains endemic is a real threat to countries with high vaccine coverage.

A Recombinant Measles Vaccine with Enhanced Resistance to Passive Immunity

Current measles vaccines suffer from poor effectiveness in young infants due primarily to the inhibitory effect of residual maternal immunity on vaccine responses. The development of a measles vaccine that resists such passive immunity would strongly contribute to the stalled effort toward measles eradication. In this concise communication, we show that a measles virus (MV) with enhanced hemagglutinin (H) expression and incorporation, termed MVvac2-H2, retained its enhanced immunogenicity, previously established in older mice, when administered to very young, genetically modified, MV-susceptible mice in the presence of passive anti-measles immunity. This immunity level mimics the sub-neutralizing immunity prevalent in infants too young to be vaccinated. Additionally, toward a more physiological small animal model of maternal anti-measles immunity interference, we document vertical transfer of passive anti-MV immunity in genetically-modified, MV susceptible mice and show in this physiological model a better MVvac2-H2 immunogenic profile than that of the parental vaccine strain. In sum, these data support the notion that enhancing MV hemagglutinin incorporation can circumvent in vivo neutralization. This strategy merits additional exploration as an alternative pediatric measles vaccine.