Determinants of survival in adult HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Oromiyaa, Ethiopia

Statistical analysis on the incidence and predictors of death among second-line ART patients in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones, Ethiopia, 2021

Acquired immune deficiency virus, caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, is a significant global health concern. Sub-Saharan Africa particularly Ethiopia faces a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus. In low-income settings like Ethiopia, early mortality rates are elevated due to severe opportunistic infections and advanced disease at Anti-retroviral treatment initiation. Despite available treatments, delayed treatment initiation among Human Immunodeficiency Virus -infected individuals in Africa, including Ethiopia, leads to disease progression and increased mortality risk. This study aimed to identify the factors contributing to the death of HIV patients under treatment at second line regimen in public hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A retrospective cohort study with 474 patients was conducted in selected hospitals of North Wollo and Waghemira Zones. A parametric Weibull regression model was employed, and the adjusted hazard ratio served as the measure of association. Variables significantly affected the outcome of the study was determined at a p-value < 0.05, along with a 95% confidence interval for the variables. The patients were within the average age of 38.6(standard deviation ± 12.5) years and majority (45.57%) had no formal education. The overall death incidence rate among second-line anti-retroviral treatment patients was 1.98 per 100-person years [95% CI 1.4-2.9%]. Poor adherence to antiretroviral treatment, male gender, and being underweight significantly increased the hazard of death. Conversely, increased anti-retroviral treatment duration had a significant and negative impact, reducing the hazard of death among patients. The study reveals a high incidence of death among second line anti-retroviral treatment users. Independent predictors include poor adherence, male gender, and underweight status, all significantly increasing the risk of death. On the positive side, the hazard of death decreases with longer anti-retroviral treatment duration. A critical concern and counseling should be given for better ART adherence, to change their nutritional status and for males.

Survival trends among people living with human immunodeficiency virus on antiretroviral treatment in two rural districts in Ghana

BACKGROUND

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has caused a lot of havoc since the early 1970s, affecting 37.6 million people worldwide. The 90-90-90 treatment policy was adopted in Ghana in 2015 with the overall aim to end new infections by 2030, and to improve the life expectancy of HIV seropositive individuals. With the scale-up of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, the lifespan of People Living with HIV (PLWH) on antiretrovirals (ARVs) is expected to improve. In rural districts in Ghana, little is known about the survival probabilities of PLWH on ARVs. Hence, this study was conducted to estimate the survival trends of PLWH on ARVs.

METHODS

A retrospective evaluation of data gathered across ARV centres within Tatale and Zabzugu districts in Ghana from 2016 to 2020 among PLWH on ARVs. A total of 261 participants were recruited for the study. The data was analyzed using STATA software version 16.0. Lifetable analysis and Kaplan-Meier graph were used to assess the survival probabilities. "Stptime" per 1000 person-years and the competing risk regression were used to evaluate mortality rates and risk.

RESULTS

The cumulative survival probability was 0.8847 (95% CI: 0.8334-0.9209). The overall mortality rate was 51.89 (95% CI: 36.89-72.97) per 1000 person-years. WHO stage III and IV [AHR: 4.25 (95%CI: 1.6-9.71) p = 0.001] as well as age group (50+ years) [AHR: 5.02 (95% CI: 1.78-14.13) p = 0.002] were associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

Survival probabilities were high among the population of PLWH in Tatale and Zabzugu with declining mortality rates. Clinicians should provide critical attention and care to patients at HIV WHO stages III and IV and intensify HIV screening at all entry points since early diagnosis is associated with high survival probabilities.

Survival analysis of PLWHA undergoing combined antiretroviral therapy: exploring long-term prognosis and influencing factors

Introduction

The survival time of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals or patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is influenced by multiple factors. Studying survival and influential factors after antiretroviral therapy (ART) contributes to improving treatment protocols, management strategies, and prognosis for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA).

Methods

This retrospective cohort study collected case data and follow-up records of PLWHA who received ART in Dazu District, Chongqing City, between 2007 and 2022. Cumulative survival rates were calculated using life tables. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method. Uni-variable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models analyzed factors influencing survival.

Results

The study included 5,237 PLWHA receiving ART. Within the first year of ART initiation, 146 AIDS-related deaths occurred, accounting for 29.49% (146/495) of total deaths. Cumulative survival rates at 1, 5, 10, and 15 years were 0.97, 0.90, 0.85, and 0.79, respectively. During the observation period, male patients who received ART had a 1.89 times higher risk of death compared to females (aHR, 1.89; 95%; CI, 1.50-2.37). Patients aged ≥60 years had a 3.44-fold higher risk of death than those aged <30 years (aHR, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.22-9.67). Injection drug users (aHR, 4.95; 95% CI, 2.00-12.24) had a higher risk of death than those with heterosexual (aHR, 1.60; 95% CI, 0.69-3.72) and homosexual transmission. Patients with a baseline CD4+ T lymphocyte count <200 cells/μL (aHR, 8.02; 95% CI, 4.74-13.57) and between 200 and 349 cells/μL (aHR, 2.14; 95% CI, 1.26-3.64) had a higher risk of death than those with ≥350 cells/μL. Patients with ART initiation at WHO clinical stage IV had a 2.48-fold higher risk of death than those at stage I (aHR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.17-5.23).

Conclusion

The first year following ART initiation is critical in HIV/AIDS treatment, emphasizing the need for intensified follow-up and monitoring to facilitate successful immune system reconstruction. Older age, male sex, injection drug use, baseline CD4+ T lymphocyte count <200 cells/μL, and WHO clinical stage IV are associated with an increased risk of death. Tailored treatment and management strategies should be implemented for patient populations at higher risk of mortality and with a poorer prognosis.

Predictors of Survival Time Among HIV-Infected Adults After Initiating Anti-Retroviral Therapy in Kombolcha Town: A 5-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) enhances the survival of HIV-infected patients by reducing viral load and increasing CD4. As CD4 count increases, patients are more protected against opportunistic infections. In developing countries including Ethiopia, there were limited studies about the survival benefit of ART particularly no study in Kombolcha Town. Thus, this study was aimed to address the gap.

Methods

A hospital-based retrospective cohort study was employed in Kombolcha town among 510 patients’ records from January 2015 to December 2019. A systematic random sampling technique was used to select patient records. The collected data were checked, coded, and entered into Epidata version 4.6 and exported to Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 26 for data cleaning and analysis. Kaplan–Meier was used to estimate the probability of category of each predictor and a log rank test was used to compare survival curves. Bivariate and multivariate Cox-regression were employed using a 95% CI and variables with p-value <0.05 were declared as predictors of poor survival time.

Results

In this cohort, out of 510 HIV-infected patients, 39 (7.65%) were died, and 471 (92.35%) were censored. Fair drug adherence (AHR=6.88, 95% CI: 4.31–24.04), Poor drug adherence (AHR=9.58, 95% CI: 8.72–30.97), CD4 count <50 cell/µL (AHR=9.38, 95% CI: 1.48–59.31), CD4 count 50–99 cell/µL (AHR=9.67, 95% CI: 1.80–51.73), bedridden (AHR=9.5, 95% CI: 4.49–18.66), opportunistic infections (AHR=4.58, 95% CI: 1.20–5.65), weight <60kg (AHR=2.48, 95% CI:1.59, 10.38), WHO stage III (AHR=3.56, 95% CI: 1.71–17.89), WHO stage IV (AHR=4.42, 95% CI:1.75–25.93) were predictors of poor survival time.

Conclusion

The Kaplan–Meier result showed that the estimated median survival time of patients after ART initiation in Kombolcha town was higher (32 months) as compared to other studies. Poor drug adherence, WHO stage III & IV, Lower baseline CD4 count, presence of opportunistic infections, weight <60kg, and being bedridden were predictors of poor survival time. Thus, early initiation of ART ought to be encouraged among HIV-infected patients and good patient counseling on the level of adherence should be strengthened.

Predictors of Mortality among Adult People Living with HIV and Its Implications for Appointment Spacing Model Approach Care

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia has been motivated to achieve a goal of "appointment spacing model approach care." However, little has been documented on the predictor of mortality and challenges of sustainable HIV care. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine predictors of mortality among adult people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 676 adult people living with HIV who enrolled to ART clinic from September 01, 2012 - August 30, 2016. Multivariable Cox Regression analysis was done where adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) at P value ≤ 0.05 cut of point was used to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

The total person-time contributed was 28,209 person-months with an overall mortality incidence rate of 11 per 1000 person-months observation. The cumulative mortality incidence among females over the study period was 16.8% (64/382). Severe undernourishment and moderate malnutrition at baseline, younger age, female sex, single, divorced, illiterate, lack of disclosure, advanced WHO clinical stage, seeking treatment outside catchment area, rural residence and immunological failure were found to be independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor nutritional status at baseline, advanced stage of HIV disease, occurrence of treatment failure, female sex, substance abuse, lack of social support, immunological failure, clinical failure, and younger age, low level of education and poor physical access to healthcare facility were found to be important predictors of mortality. Intervening, those factors as routine and part of the appointment spacing model care can improve survival of PLWHA.

Predictors of mortality rate among adult HIV-positive patients on antiretroviral therapy in Metema Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Globally Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is an ongoing public health issue associated with high morbidity and mortality. Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy. However, the incidence and predictors of mortality in border areas like Metema were not investigated. This study aimed to assess predictors of mortality rate among adult HIV-positive patients on antiretroviral therapy at Metema Hospital.

Methods

Retrospective follow-up study was employed among ART patients from January 1, 2013, to December 30, 2018. Data were entered in Epi-data 3.1 and exported to STATA 14 for analysis. Kaplan–Meier and Log-Rank test was used to compare survival differences among categories of different variables. In bi-variable analysis p-values < 0.20 were entered into a multivariable analysis. Multivariate Weibull model was used to measure the risk of death and identify the significant predictors of death. Variables that were statistically significant at p-value < 0.05 were concluded as predictors of mortality.

Result

A total of 542 study participants were included. The overall incidence rate was 6.7 (95% CI: 5.4–8.4) deaths per 100 person-years of observation. Being male (HR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.24–4.62), STAGE IV (HR = 5.64; 95% CI: 2.53–12.56), stage III (HR = 3.31; 95% CI: 1.35–8.10), TB-coinfection (HR = 3.71; 95% CI: 1.59–8.64), low hemoglobin (HR = 4.14; 95% CI: 2.18–7.86), BMI ≤ 15.4 kg/m² (HR = 2.45; 95% CI: 1.17–5.10) and viral load > 1000 copy/ml (HR = 6.70; 95% CI: 3.4–13.22) were found to be a significant predictor for mortality among HIV patients on ART treatment.

Conclusion

The incidence of death was high. Being male, viral load, those with advanced STAGE (III & IV), TB co-infected, low BMI, and low hemoglobin were at a higher risk of mortality. Special attention should be given to male patients and high public interventions needed among HIV patients on ART to reduce the mortality rate.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-021-00353-z.

Prevalence of Cryptococcal Antigenemia and Associated Factors among HIV/AIDS Patients at Felege-Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Cryptococcosis is the most common opportunistic fungal infection. High morbidity and mortality are frequently observed among hospitalized HIV/AIDS patients, particularly having CD4 count ≤100 cells/μl. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the prevalence of cryptococcal antigenemia and associated factors among HIV/AIDS patients.

Methods

A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 140 HIV/AIDS patients. A cryptococcal antigen test was performed for all patients along with medical chart and laboratory registration book review. Cryptococcal antigen was detected from serum by using Remel Cryptococcal Antigen Test Kit. Data related to possible associated factors were extracted from patients' charts and laboratory registration book. Data were coded, entered, and analyzed using SPSS version 20. Logistic regression analysis was done to see the association between dependent and independent variables. A P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Finally, data were presented in the form of texts, figures, and tables.

Result

Among 140 serum cryptococcal antigenemia-tested study subjects, 16 (11.43%) were positive for serum cryptococcal antigen. Of them, 43.8% (7/16) were pulmonary tuberculosis coinfected, 31.2% (5/16) were extrapulmonary tuberculosis positive, and 25% (4/16) had bacterial bloodstream infections. In addition, 68.7% (11/16) had CD4 count less than 100 cells/μl, 18.7% (3/16) had CD4 count 100–150 cells/μl, 50% (8/16) were antiretroviral therapy defaulters, and 31.3% (5/16) were naïve. In this study, the majority, 75% (12/16), of the serum cryptococcal antigen-positive subjects were clinical stage IV. Of the assessed associated factors, tuberculosis coinfection (AOR: 0.04; 95% CI [0.005–0.25]) and antiretroviral therapy status (AOR: 0.02; 95% CI [0.001–0.5]) were significantly associated factors enhancing serum cryptococcal antigenemia.

Conclusion

In this study, the high rate of cryptococcal antigenemia was observed among hospitalized HIV/AIDS patients, and it is alarming and highlights the need for improving CD4 status, expanding serum cryptococcal antigen screening, and strengthening regular cryptococcal antigenemia surveillance systems.

Statistical Joint Modeling for Predicting the Association of CD4 Measurement and Time to Death of People Living with HIV Who Enrolled in ART, Southwest Ethiopia

Background

In much epidemiological HIV research, patients are often followed over a period of time to predict their survival on the basis of repeatedly measured CD4 status. To predict survival, statistical models of the association between mortality and longitudinal CD4 measurement have been conducted widely using time-varying Cox models. However, in the presence of repeated measure, this approach leads to biased estimates. In view of the limitation of time-varying Cox models, in the present study, we considered joint modeling to predict the association of longitudinal CD4 measurement and time to death among patients initiated on ART.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was employed for five years from 2009 to 2014 on a randomly selected 358 samples. Data were collected from patients’ ART and pre-ART follow-up registration book, database and other clinical records. Data were analyzed using joint latent class modeling of repeated CD4 measurement and time-to-event (HIV death).

Results

We have studied a total of 358 HIV-positive patients. The median and interquartile ranges of the age of patients were 30.31 years and 13.82, respectively. Males constitute the larger proportion, 51.68%. The square root of CD4 count has declined on average over time. This has been indicated with the negative sign of the coefficient for the time effect. The deterioration of health of individuals is severe in class 1, it has been observed with a worse decline in CD4 cell counts over time in this class than other classes (β= −0.488). Women had a larger risk rate than men (β=−2.475, p-value=0.013). Besides, the CD4 counts measurement of patients has been revealed to decrease as age increases (β= −0.016, p=0.008).

Conclusion

The finding indicated that the square root CD4 cell measurement dropped over time in the three classes. This clearly suggested deterioration in the health of individuals. Women were found to have a higher hazard rate than men.

Multilevel model on longitudinal data analysis in determinants of CD4 cell count among antiretroviral therapy attendant of HIV infected adults follow up in Gondar Teaching Referral Hospital, Gonder, Ethiopia

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus attacked an immune cell and the CD4 cell which is responsible for the body’s immune to infectious agents. Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is one of the major public health problems in Sub-Saharan Africa including Ethiopia. The main objective of this study to identify the determinants of CD4 cell count among antiretroviral therapy attendants of infected adults follow up in Gonder teaching referral hospital, Gonder, Ethiopia implemented by SAS version 94.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 216 regular follow up patients whose age greater than 14 years from December 1, 2012, to December 30, 2017. A multilevel model was used to identify the factors of CD4 cell count of patients and it considered variability between and within patients.

Results

The mean with a standard deviation of weight, and a hemoglobin level of patients were 55.48 (10.21), and 18.25 (33.028) respectively. This study concluded that the variation for CD4 cell count existed between patients was 63% and the remaining 37% of variation existing within patients. In this study, the random coefficient time-varying covariate model was well fitted which shows weight and hemoglobin level were statistically significant predictors at a 5% level of significance for the log of CD4 cell count of patients.

Conclusion

This study shows the hemoglobin level and weight of patients were statistically significant for the log of CD4 cell count of patients follow up in Gonder teaching referral hospital, Gonder, Ethiopia. Moreover, the result of the study shows that the log of CD4 count of patients increased when hemoglobin level and weight of patients increased. Hence, intervention should be given the ways to increase weight and hemoglobin levels of patients during follow up of antiretroviral therapy.

Epidemiology of survival pattern and its predictors among HIV positive patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy in Southern Ethiopia public health facilities: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In resource poor countries like Ethiopia, little is known about the survival of patients treated with antiretroviral therapy which depends on different factors. Evidence shows that mortality has been high particularly in the first 3 to 6 months of initiating antiretroviral therapy. Hence, the study aimed to assess the Epidemiology of survival pattern and its determinants among adult HIV positive patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study was employed among a total of 455 records of patients who were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy from September 2006 to August 2010. Socio-demographic, clinical, immunological, behavioral, and date of antiretroviral treatment initiation including date of follow up status were extracted. Significant predictor variables were identified by fitting Cox's proportional hazard model using a backward stepwise method and statistical significance variables were declared based on a p-value less than 0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 455 adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART contributed to 886.05-person-year of observation and 65.7% were alive and on treatment, 17.1% were lost to follow up and 7.5% died. The study showed that the estimated mortality was 4.4%, 5.3%, 6.1%, 7%, 7.5% and 7.5% at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months of follow up period, respectively. The overall incidence rate of mortality was 4.2 per 100 person-years of observation. In multivariate analysis age 45 and above (AHR: 3.72, 95% CI 1.21-11.4), bedridden functional status (AHR: 17.4, 95% CI 6.21-48.79), poor ART drug adherence (AHR: 4.52,95% CI 2.05-9.96), Tuberculosis co-infection (AHR: 4.1, 95% CI 1.84-9.13), non-disclosure (AHR: 4.9, 95% CI 1.82-12.89) and severe anemia (AHR: 5.1, 95% CI 1.81-14.21) were found predictors.

CONCLUSION

Patients with older age, tuberculosis infection, bedridden patients and severe anemia were predictors. Tracing poorly adhered patients and giving drug counseling as well as encouraging them for disclosure to their families is crucial to improve their survival.

Immunologic and Clinical Failure of Antiretroviral Therapy in People Living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus within Two Years of Treatment

Background

Early initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) decreases human immunodeficiency virus- (HIV-) related complications, restores patients' immunity, decreases viral load, and substantially improves quality of life. However, antiretroviral treatment failure considerably impedes the merits of HAART.

Objective

This study is aimed at determining the prevalence of immunologic and clinical antiretroviral treatment failure.

Methods

A cross-sectional study design using clinical and immunologic treatment failure definition was used to conduct the study. Sociodemographic characteristics and clinical features of patients were retrieved from patients' medical registry between the years 2009 and 2015. All patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria in the study period were studied. Predictors of treatment failure were identified using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox regression analysis. Data analysis was done using SPSS version 21 software, and the level of statistical significance was declared at a p value < 0.05.

Results

A total of 770 were studied. The prevalence of treatment failure was 4.5%. The AZT-based regimen (AHR = 16.95, 95% CI: 3.02-95.1, p = 0.001), baseline CD4 count ≥ 301 (AHR = 0.199, 95% CI: 0.05-0.76, p = 0.018), and bedridden during HAART initiation (AHR = 0.131, 95% CI: 0.029-0.596, p = 0.009) were the predictors of treatment failure.

Conclusion

The prevalence of treatment failure was lower with the risk being higher among patients on the AZT-based regimen. On the other hand, the risk of treatment failure was lower among patients who started HAART at baseline CD4 count ≥ 301 and patients who were bedridden during HAART initiation. We recommend further prospective, multicenter cohort studies to be conducted to precisely detect the prevalence of treatment failure using viral load determination in the whole country.

How varying CD4 criteria for treatment initiation was associated with mortality of HIV-patients? A retrospective analysis of electronic health records from Andhra Pradesh, India

Background

HIV treatment and care services were scaled up in 2007 in India with objective to increase HIV-care coverage. CD4 count based criteria was mainly used for treatment initiation with increasing threshold in later years. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the survival by varying CD4 criteria for antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation among of HIV-positive patients, and independent factors associated with the mortality.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 127 949 HIV-positive patients aged ≥15 years, who initiated ART between 2007 and 2013 in Andhra Pradesh state, India. The patient’s demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the patient’s health records from electronic Computerized Management Information System Software (CMIS). Incidence of mortality/100 person-years was calculated for CD4 and treatment initiation categories. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox-regression analyses were used to explore the association.

Results

Median CD4 count was 172 (inter-quartile range (IQR) = 102-240) at the time of treatment initiation, and 19.3% of them had ≤ 100 CD4 count. Incidence of mortality for the period 2007-08 (CD4 ≤ 200 cells/mm³) was 8.5/100 person-years compared to 6.4/100 person-years at risk for the period 2012 onwards (CD4 ≤ 350 cells/mm³). Earlier thresholds for treatment initiation showed higher risk of mortality (2007-08 (CD4 ≤ 200 cells/mm³), adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.68-2.07; 2009-11 (CD4 ≤ 250 cells/mm³), HR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.51-1.85) compared to 2012 onwards (CD4 ≤ 350 cells/mm³) criteria for treatment initiation.

Conclusions

Increasing CD4 threshold for treatment initiation over time was independently associated with lower risk of mortality. More efforts are required to detect and treat early, monitoring of follow-ups, promote health education to improve ART adherence, and provide supportive environment that encourages HIV-infected patients to disclose their HIV status in confidence.

The effect of tuberculosis on immune reconstitution among HIV patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy in Adigrat general hospital, eastern Tigrai, Ethiopia; 2019: a retrospective follow up study

Background

Ethiopia initiated antiretroviral therapy early in 2005. Managing and detecting antiretroviral treatment response is important to monitor the effectiveness of medication and possible drug switching for low immune reconstitution. There is less recovery of CD4+ T cells among human immunodeficiency virus patients infected with tuberculosis. Hence, we aimed to assess the effect of tuberculosis and other determinant factors of immunological response among human immunodeficiency virus patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy. A retrospective follow up study was conducted from October to July 2019. A total of 393 participants were enrolled. An interviewer based questionnaire was used for data collection. Patient charts were used to extract clinical data and follow up results of the CD4+ T cell. Current CD4+ T cell counts of patients were performed. STATA 13 software was used to analyze the data. A p-value ≤0.05 was considered a statistically significant association.

Results

The mean age of study participants was 39.2 years (SD: + 12.2 years) with 8.32 mean years of follow up. The overall prevalence of immune reconstitution failure was 24.7% (97/393). Highest failure rate occurred within the first year of follow up time, 15.7 per 100 Person-year. Failure of CD4+ T cells reconstitution was higher among tuberculosis coinfected patients (48.8%) than mono-infected patients (13.7%). Living in an urban residence, baseline CD4+ T cell count ≤250 cells/mm³, poor treatment adherence and tuberculosis infection were significantly associated with the immunological failure.

Conclusions

There was a high rate of CD4+ T cells reconstitution failure among our study participants. Tuberculosis infection increased the rate of failure. Factors like low CD4+ T cell baseline count, poor adherence and urban residence were associated with the immunological failure. There should be strict monitoring of CD4+ T cell counts among individuals with tuberculosis coinfection.

Predictors of mortality among adult people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy at Suhul Hospital, Tigrai, Northern Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia is striving to achieve a goal of "zero human immune deficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS)-related deaths." However, little has been documented on the factors that hamper the progress towards achieving this goal. Therefore, the ultimate aim of this study was to determine predictors of mortality among adult people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

METHODS

A retrospective follow-up study was employed on all adult HIV/AIDS patients who started ART between January 1 and December 30, 2010, at Suhul Hospital, Tigrai Region, Northern Ethiopia. Data were collected by trained fourth-year Public Health students using a checklist. Finally, the collected data were entered into SPSS version 16. Then after, Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate survival probability, the log-rank test was used for comparing the survival status, and Cox proportional hazards model were applied to determine predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 51 months (ranging between 1 and 60 months, inter-quartile range (IQR) = 14 months). At the end of follow-up, 37 (12.5%) patients were dead. The majority of these cumulative deaths, 19 (51.4%) and 29 (78.4%), occurred within 3 and 4 years of ART initiation respectively. Consuming alcohol (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.23, 95% CI = 1.15, 4.32), low body weight (AHR = 2.38, 95% CI = 1.03, 5.54), presence of opportunistic infections (AHR = 2.18, 95% CI = 1.09, 4.37), advanced WHO clinical stage (AHR = 2.75, 95% CI = 1.36, 5.58), and not receiving isoniazid prophylactic therapy (AHR = 3.00, 95% CI = 1.33, 6.74) were found to be independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The overall mortality was very high. Baseline alcohol consumption, low body weight, advanced WHO clinical stage, the presence of opportunistic infections, and not receiving isoniazid prophylactic therapy were predictors of mortality. Strengthening behavioral and nutritional counseling with close clinical follow-up shall be given much more emphasis in the ART care and support program.

Predictors of mortality in adult people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Nepal: A retrospective cohort study, 2004-2013

Background

In Nepal, since 2004, 19,388 people living with HIV (PLHIV) have been enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to measure mortality rate and to identify predictors of mortality in adult (≥15 years) PLHIV who initiated ART between 2004 and 2013 in five large ART centers of Nepal.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study of 3,799 (60.5% male) adult PLHIV uses secondary data collected from standard ART registers. Time from ART initiation (baseline) to death or censoring (loss to follow-up or December 31, 2013) was assessed. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were calculated. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate the probability of mortality over time. Predictors of mortality were determined using Cox-regression models.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 6.98 (95% CI: 6.46–7.54) per 100 person-years, 4.11 (95% CI: 3.53–4.79) in females and 9.14 (95% CI: 8.36–9.99) in males. Mortality rates were higher in early months after ART initiation, particularly in the first three months. Baseline predictors of mortality were ART center, male gender (adjusted HR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.69–2.57), residence outside the ART district (AHR = 1.45, 95% CI:1.19–1.76), World Health Organization clinical stage III (AHR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.13–2.46) and IV (AHR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.45–3.36), bedridden <50% time in the last month (AHR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.52–2.41), bedridden >50% time in the last month (AHR = 3.82, 95% CI: 2.95–4.94), lower bodyweight/kg (AHR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03–1.05), CD4 count <150 cell/mm³ (AHR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.05–4.34) and treatment not switched to second-line regimen (AHR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.35–6.90).

Conclusions

Mortality rates were higher soon after ART initiation, particularly in males and gradually decreased over time. Poor baseline clinical characteristics were significantly associated with higher mortality. Increased ART coverage with decentralization of sites to lower levels including community dispensing, differentiated and improved service delivery and initiation of ART at a less advanced disease stage may reduce early mortality.

Predictors associated with HIV/AIDS patients dropout from antiretroviral therapy at Mettu Karl Hospital, southwest Ethiopia

Objective

The aim of this study was to determine the major risk factors of antiretroviral therapy dropout. The retrospective cohort research design was applied. 1512 HIV patients were included from Mettu Karl Hospital in Illubabor Zone, southwest part of Ethiopia from September 2005 to January 2018. Kaplan–Meier comparison and log-logistic regression accelerated failure time model were used.

Results

From the log-logistic regression result, the risk of dropout for patients with primary education status was 10.58% greater as compared to illiterate (p < 0.0110). The probability of dropout for patients with marital status separated was about 16.82% higher than those patients with marital status divorced (p < 0.0070). Being merchant, farmer and daily labour had a greater risk of dropout as compared to a housewife. Most of the HIV/AIDS patients on ART were dropout in a short period due to patients separated marital status, primary education, CD4, being merchants, farmer and daily labour. Investigation on the cause of antiretroviral therapy dropout from a number of AIDS clinics in the country is highly appreciated.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13104-019-4267-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Survival and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS: A 30-year national survey in Iran

Background:

The survival in Iranian HIV/AIDS patients based on data from Iran National HIV/AIDS Case Registry System has not been evaluated. This study assessed the survival rates and associated factors among people living with HIV/AIDS in Iran.

Materials and Methods:

The population in this observational study included 32168 patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS registered in Iran disease registry system between 1986 and 31 December 2015. Data until June 2016 (the cutoff date of our last data linkage) were investigated to estimate survival and related factors following HIV diagnosis.

Results:

Of registered patients, 17.7% were diagnosed at AIDS stage. By June 2016, 27.2% of study population progressed to AIDS, and 8081 (25.1%) of patients died. The survival rate was 88%, 85%, 77%, and 67% for 1, 2, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Cumulative proportion surviving was significantly lower in males than in females (P = 0.0001). A higher rate of survival was seen in female patients, who diagnosed after 2010, infected in sexual route, and had CD4 cell count more than 500, nonconfected patients with tuberculosis (TB), and those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART). Based on multivariate model, the mortality risk in female patients, those with CD4 cell count more than 500, patients who received ART, and those with TB and injection drug uses (IDUs) was higher.

Conclusion:

The survival in studied patients increased in recent time periods, and ART reduced AIDS-related mortality in these patients. The survival can be increased by focus on improvements in patient care among male patients, IDUs, and patients with TB coinfection.

Early mortality among children and adults in antiretroviral therapy programs in Southwest Ethiopia, 2003-15

Background

Several studies reported that the majority of deaths in HIV-infected people are documented in their early antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-ups. Early mortality refers to death of people on ART for follow up period of below 24 months due to any cause. The current study assessed predictors of early HIV mortality in Southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

We have conducted a retrospective analysis of 5299 patient records dating from June 2003- March 2015. To estimate survival time and compare the time to event among the different groups of patients, we used a Kaplan Meir curve and log-rank test. To identify mortality predictors, we used a cox regression analysis. We used SPSS-20 for all analyses.

Results

A total of 326 patients died in the 12 years follow-up period contributing to 6.2% cumulative incidence and 21.7 deaths per 1000 person-year observations incidence rate. Eighty-nine percent of the total deaths were documented in the first two years follow up—an early-term ART follow up. Early HIV mortality rates among adults were 50% less in separated, divorced or widowed patients compared with never married patients, 1.6 times higher in patients with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/μL compared to baseline CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL, 1.5 times higher in patients with baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 compared to baseline WHO clinical stage 1 or 2, 2.1 times higher in patients with immunologic failure compared with no immunologic failure, 60% less in patients with fair or poor compared with good adherence, 2.9 times higher in patients with bedridden functional status compared to working functional status, and 2.7 times higher with patients who had no history of HIV testing before diagnosis compared to those who had history of HIV testing. Most predictors of early mortality remained the same to the predictors of an overall HIV mortality. When discontinuation was assumed as an event, the predictors of an overall HIV mortality included age between 25–50 years, base line CD4 count, developing immunologic failure, bedridden functional status, and no history of HIV testing before diagnosis.

Conclusions

The great majority of deaths were documented in the first two years of ART, and several predictors of early HIV mortality were also for the overall mortality when discontinuation was assumed as event or censored. Considering the above population, interventions to improve HIV program in the first two years of ART follow up should be improved.

Predictors of Survival among Adult Ethiopian Patients in the National ART Program at Seven University Teaching Hospitals: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

In Ethiopia, the publicly funded antiretroviral treatment (ART) program was started in 2005. Two hundred seventy-five thousand patients were enrolled in the national ART program by 2012. However, there is limited data on mortality and predictors of death among adult patients in the ART program. The study aimed to estimate mortality and risk factors for death among adult, ART-naïve patients, started in the national ART program from January 2009 to July 2013.

Methods

Multi-site, prospective, observational cohort study of adult, age > 18 years, ART-naïve patients, started in the national ART program at seven university-affiliated hospitals from January 2009 – July 2013. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to estimate survival and determine risk factors for death.

Results

A total of 976 patients, 594 females (60.9 %), were enrolled into the study. Median age of the cohort was 33years. The median CD4 count at start of ART was 144 cells/µl (interquartile range (IQR) 78–205), and 34.2% (330/965) had CD4 < 100. Sixty-three percent (536/851) had viral load greater than 5 log copies/ml (IQR 4.7–5.7) at base line. One hundred and one deaths were recorded during follow-up period, all-cause mortality rate 10.3%; 5.4 deaths/100 person years of observation, 95% confidence interval 4.4–6.5. Seventy percent of the deaths occurred within six months of starting ART. Cox regression analyses showed that the following measures independently predicted mortality: age >51 years, (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) 4.01, P=0.003), WHO stages III&IV, (AHR 1.76, p = 0.025), CD4 count, <100, (AHR 2.36, p =0.006), and viral load >5 log copies /ml (CHR 1.71, p = 0.037).

Conclusion

There is high early on- ART mortality in patients presenting with advanced immunodeficiency. Detecting cases and initiating ART before onset of advanced immunodeficiency might improve survival.

Cascade of care among HIV patients diagnosed in 2013 in Georgia: Risk factors for late diagnosis and attrition from HIV care

INTRODUCTION

The major challenge in the HIV epidemic in Georgia is a high proportion of undiagnosed people living with HIV (estimated 48%) as well as a very high proportion of late presentations for care, with 66% presenting for HIV care with CD4 count <350 and 40% with <200 cells/mm3, in 2013. The objectives of this study was to evaluate patient engagement in the continuum of HIV care for HIV patients diagnosed in 2013 and, within this cohort, to evaluate factors associated with late diagnosis and attrition from care.

METHODS

Factors associated with late diagnosis were analyzed through binary logistic regression. Exposure variables were the mode of HIV transmission (injecting drug use, male-to-male contact, and heterosexual contact), gender (male vs female), and age (categorized by median value ≤36 vs >36). In addition, CD4 count at diagnosis (cells/mm3) (≤350 or >350) together with all above factors were tested for the association with attrition through Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 317 patients retained in care, representing 65% of those diagnosed (n = 488). Out of eligible 295 patients, 89.5% were on treatment and 84% of those viral load count was measured after 6 months of antiretroviral treatment initiation had HIV-1 viral load <1000 copies/mL. Patients reporting injecting drug use as a route-of HIV transmission had two times the odds (95% confidence interval = 1.34-3.49) to be diagnosed late and patients reporting male-to-male contact as a way of HIV transmission had half the odds (odds ratio = 0.46 (95% confidence interval = 0.26-0.81)) of late diagnosis compared to patients acquiring HIV through heterosexual contact. Patients older than 36 years were more likely to being diagnosed late.

CONCLUSION

More attention should be given to injecting drug users as they represent the most at-risk population for late diagnosis together with older age and attrition.

Risk Factors for Mortality among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An Assessment through Survival Models

Introduction: Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment. However, HIV patients in resource-poor settings are still dying, even if they are on ART treatment. This study aimed to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Southwestern Ethiopia. Method: A non-concurrent retrospective cohort study which collected data from the clinical records of adult HIV/AIDS patients, who initiated ART treatment and were followed between January 2006 and December 2010, was conducted, to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality at Jimma University Specialized Hospital (JUSH). Survival times (i.e., the time from the onset of ART treatment to the death or censoring) and different characteristics of patients were retrospectively examined. A best-fit model was chosen for the survival data, after the comparison between native semi-parametric Cox regression and parametric survival models (i.e., exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic). Result: A total of 456 HIV patients were included in the study, mostly females (312, 68.4%), with a median age of 30 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 23–37 years). Estimated follow-up until December 2010 accounted for 1245 person-years at risk (PYAR) and resulted in 66 (14.5%) deaths and 390 censored individuals, representing a median survival time of 34.0 months ( IQR: 22.8–42.0 months). The overall mortality rate was 5.3/100 PYAR: 6.5/100 PYAR for males and 4.8/100 PYAR for females. The Weibull survival model was the best model for fitting the data (lowest AIC). The main factors associated with mortality were: baseline age (>35 years old, AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.6–9.1), baseline weight (AHR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90–0.97), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI: 2.2–14.2), and low adherence to ART treatment (AHR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.5–7.1). Conclusion: An effective reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality could be achieved through timely ART treatment onset and maintaining high levels of treatment adherence.

Clinical Outcomes of Tenofovir Versus Zidovudine-based Regimens Among People Living with HIV/AIDS: a Two Years Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Tenofovir (TDF) based regimen is one of the first line agents that has been utilized routinely since 2013 in Ethiopia. Unfortunately, there is limited information regarding the Clinical outcomes and associated risk factors in this setting, where patients generally present late, have high rates of TB and other infectious conditions.

METHODS

A two year retrospective cohort study was conducted from February 10/2015 to March 10/2015 at Jimma University Specialized Hospital. A total of 280 records were reviewed by including data from September 3, 2012 to July 31, 2014. Records were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data was collected on socio-demographic, clinical and drug related variables. Data was analyzed using STATA 13.1. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression were used to compare survival experience and identify independent predictors. Propensity score matching analysis was conducted to elucidate the average treatment effects of each regimen over opportunistic infections.

RESULTS

Of 280 patients, 183(65.36%) were females and 93(33.32%) of females belong to Tenofovir group. Through 24 months analysis, TDF based regimen had a protective effect against death and opportunistic infections (OIs), (AHR=0.79, 95% CI [0.24, 2.62]) and (AHR=0.78, 95%CI [0.43, 1.4] respectively. The average treatment effect of TDF/3TC/EFV was (-71/1000, p=0.026), while it was (+114/1000, p=0.049) for AZT/3TC/EFV. However, TDF/3TC/NVP was associated with statistically insignificant morbidity reduction (-74/1000, p=0.377). Those with body mass-index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (AHR=3.21, 95%CI [0.93, 11.97]) had higher hazard of death. Absence of baseline prophylaxis (AHR=8.22, 95% CI [1.7, 39.77]), Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis alone (AHR=6.15, 95% CI [1.47, 26.67]) and BMI<18.5kg/m2 (AHR=2.06, 95% CI [1.14, 3.73]) had higher hazards of OIs.

CONCLUSION

The survival benefit of TDF based regimen was similar to AZT based regimen and therefore can be used as an alternative for HIV/AIDS patients in resource limited setups. However, since this study was not dealt with toxicity of the regimens, we recommend to conduct high quality design on this issue.

Pre-ART nutritional status and its association with mortality in adult patients enrolled on ART at Fiche Hospital in North Shoa, Oromia region, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) compromises the nutritional status of infected individuals and in turn, malnutrition worsens the effects of the infection itself by weakening the immune system consequently accelerating disease progression and death. However, few studies have examined the association between nutritional status at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and early mortality. Therefore, this study assesses pre-ART nutritional status and other baseline characteristics and mortality among adult patients on ART at Fiche Hospital, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 489 ART enrolled adult patients between August 01, 2006 and September 30, 2013 in Fiche Hospital. Study participants were selected by using systematic random sampling method. Actuarial table was used to estimate survival of patients after ART initiation and log rank test was used to compare the survival curves. Cox proportional-hazard regression was used to determine independent predictors of time to death.

RESULTS

Most of the study subjects were females 254 (51.9%). A total of 489 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 87 died during a median study follow-up of 22 months. The estimated mortality among malnourished was 21, 28, 33, and 38% at 5, 10, 15, and 25 months respectively with mortality incidence density of 5.63 deaths per 100 person years. The independent predictors of mortality were: BMI <18.5 kg/m² (AHR = 5.4 95% CI 3.03-9.58), baseline ambulatory functional status (AHR = 3.84; 95% CI 2.19-6.74), bedridden functional status (AHR = 4.78; 95% CI 2.14-10.65), WHO clinical stage III (AHR 2.21; 95% CI 1.16-4.21), WHO clinical stage IV (AHR 4.05; 95% CI 1.50-10.97) and CD4 count less than 200 cells/μl (AHR = 2.95; 95% CI 1.48-5.88), two and more opportunistic infections (AHR 2.30; 95% CI 1.11-4.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Undernutrition at the time of ART initiation was associated with increased risk of death, particularly during the first 3 months after ART initiation. Interventions to promote earlier HIV diagnosis and treatment and integrating nutrition counseling at all stages of ART implementation may improve ART outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Predictors of mortality in a cohort of tuberculosis/HIV co-infected patients in Southwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis/HIV co-infection is a bidirectional and synergistic combination of two very important pathogens in public health. To date, there have been limited clinical data regarding mortality rates among tuberculosis/HIV co-infected patients and the impact of antiretroviral therapy on clinical outcomes in Ethiopia. This study assessed the incidence and predictors of tuberculosis/HIV co-infection mortality in Southwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study collated tuberculosis/HIV data from Jimma University Teaching Hospital for the period of September 2010 and August 2012. The data analysis used proportional hazards cox regression model at P value of ≤ 0.05 in the final model.

RESULTS

Fifty-five (20.2 %) patients died during the study period and 272 study participants contributed 3 082.7 person month observations. Factors including: being aged between 35-44 years (AHR = 2.9; 95 % CI: 1.08-7.6), being a female sex worker (AHR = 9.1; 95 % CI: 2.7-30.7), being bed ridden as functional status (AHR = 3.2; 95 % CI: 1.2-8.7), and being at World Health Organization HIV disease stages 2 (AHR = 0.2; 95 % CI: 0.06-0.5), 3(AHR = 0.3; 95 % CI: 0.1-0.8) and 4(AHR = 0.2; 95 % CI: 0.04-0.55) were significant predictors of mortality for tuberculosis/HIV co-infected patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to our expectations, the World Health Organization (WHO) HIV disease stage 1 was found to be a significant predictor of mortality. Higher mortality rates were observed in WHO disease stage 1 patients compared to patients in stages 2, 3 and 4. The current study also confirmed and reaffirmed known significant predictors of the mortality for tuberculosis/HIV co-infected patients including being 35-44 years, being a female sex worker and being bed ridden functional status. The occurrence of high death rate among tuberculosis/HIV co-infected cases needs actions to reduce this poor outcome.

Marked sex differences in all-cause mortality on antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

While women and girls are disproportionately at risk of HIV acquisition, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), globally men and women comprise similar proportions of people living with HIV who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy. However, men represent only approximately 41% of those receiving antiretroviral therapy globally. There has been limited study of men’s outcomes in treatment programmes, despite data suggesting that men living with HIV and engaged in treatment programmes have higher mortality rates. This systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis (MA) aims to assess differential all-cause mortality between men and women living with HIV and on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC.

Methods

A SR was conducted through searching PubMed, Ovid Global Health and EMBASE for peer-reviewed, published observational studies reporting differential outcomes by sex of adults (≥15 years) living with HIV, in treatment programmes and on antiretroviral medications in LMIC. For studies reporting hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality by sex, quality assessment using Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (cohort studies) and an MA using a random-effects model (Stata 14.0) were conducted.

Results

A total of 11,889 records were screened, and 6726 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility. There were 31 included studies in the final MA reporting 42 HRs, with a total sample size of 86,233 men and 117,719 women, and total time on antiretroviral therapy of 1555 months. The pooled hazard ratio (pHR) showed a 46% increased hazard of death for men while on antiretroviral treatment (1.35–1.59). Increased hazard was significant across geographic regions (sub-Saharan Africa: pHR 1.41 (1.28–1.56); Asia: 1.77 (1.42–2.21)) and persisted over time on treatment (≤12 months: 1.42 (1.21–1.67); 13–35 months: 1.48 (1.23–1.78); 36–59 months: 1.50 (1.18–1.91); 61 to 108 months: 1.49 (1.29–1.71)).

Conclusions

Men living with HIV have consistently and significantly greater hazards of all-cause mortality compared with women while on antiretroviral therapy in LMIC. This effect persists over time on treatment. The clinical and population-level prevention benefits of antiretroviral therapy will only be realized if programmes can improve male engagement, diagnosis, earlier initiation of therapy, clinical outcomes and can support long-term adherence and retention.

Effects of Antiretroviral Therapy on the Survival of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Adult Patients in Andhra Pradesh, India: A Retrospective Cohort Study, 2007-2013

OBJECTIVES

The survival outcomes of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs have not been systematically evaluated at the state level in India. This retrospective study assessed the survival rates and factors associated with survival among adult human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients in Andhra Pradesh, India.

METHODS

The present study used data from 139 679 HIV patients aged ≥15 years on ART who were registered from 2007 to 2011 and were followed up through December 2013. The primary end point was death of the patient. Mortality densities (per 1000 person-years) were calculated. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used to estimate survival and explore the factors associated with survival.

RESULTS

The overall median follow-up time was 16.0 months (2.0 months for the deceased and 14.0 months for those lost to follow-up). Approximately 13.2% of those newly initiated on ART died during follow-up. Of those deaths, 56% occurred in the first three months. The crude mortality rate was 80.9 per 1000 person-years at risk. The CD4 count (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR],4.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.36 to 5.46 for <100 cells/mm3 vs. >350 cells/mm3), functional status (aHR, 3.05; 95% CI, 2.82 to 3.30 for bedridden vs. normal), and body weight (aHR, 3.69; 95% CI, 3.42 to 3.97 for <45 kg vs. >60 kg) were strongly associated with the survival of HIV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings revealed that high mortality was observed within the first three months of ART initiation. Patients with poor baseline clinical characteristics had a higher risk of mortality. Expanded testing and counseling should be encouraged, with the goal of ensuring early enrollment into the program followed by the initiation of ART in HIV-infected patients.

Comparison of survival in adult antiretroviral treatment naïve patients treated in primary health care centers versus those treated in hospitals: retrospective cohort study; Oromia region, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) service scaling up has been practiced in the Ethiopia since 2006. Regardless of increasing number of primary health care centers providing the service, the existing hospitals are still overcrowded with ART service seeking patients may be because of the common belief that treatment outcome is better for hospital patients than those treated at the primary health centers. However, documented evidence comparing the treatment outcome for the two categories of health facilities is scarce in the study setting. The purpose of the current study was to compare major treatment outcomes among new patients treated at the two health facility categories.

METHOD

Retrospective cohort study was implemented using secondary data from medical records collected between October 2010 and January 2014 in the selected health facilities. All patients (1895) who started the treatment in the facilities during the period were included in the study. Univariate analyses were made using descriptive methods such as frequency distributions and measures of central tendency. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were made using Kaplan Meier and Cox regression models respectively to compare the mean survival time between the two facility categories. P-value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 1895 patient records were followed for 27,990 person-months. Risks of unwanted treatment outcomes (death and lose-to-follow-up) were the same for both categories of patients. The median survival probability was similar to the facility categories (P-value = 0.11). Baseline performance scale III/IV (AHR, 2.4; 95 % CI: 2.0, 3.0), baseline WHO clinical stages III/IV (AHR, 2.8; 95 % CI: 2.3, 3.4), and low adherence (<95 %) to ART drugs (AHR, 3.4; 95 % CI: 2.8, 5.2) were the independent predictors of the unwanted treatment outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Antiretroviral treatment service delivery at primary health care facilities did not compromise the treatment outcomes among adult ART naïve patients. This implies that, ART services decentralization can result in acceptable treatment outcome in less developed settings. Therefore, treatment requiring patients should be encouraged to start the treatment in either of the health facilities as early as possible.

Survival of people on antiretroviral treatment in Zambia: a retrospective cohort analysis of HIV clients on ART

Introduction

Provision of free anti-retroviral therapy in Zambia started in June 2004. There were only 15,000 people on treatment as at December that year, mainly due to lack of access. This number rose to 580,000 people as at December 2013. The general objective of this study was to determine survival of people on ART and to examine associated predictors for survival.

Methods

The study included ART patients enrolled between the year 2002 and 2013 (n=10,395) in 285 health facilities in Zambia. Patient files were analyzed retrospectively. The study used Kaplan Meier and Cox-proportional hazard models to describe the relationship between lost to follow up and age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count and weight.

Results

Results showed that lost to follow up accounted for 90% of the clients that had dropped out, while 10% was to deaths. Low baseline CD4 count (p-value 0.001, HR 0.9994, (95% CI 0.9993, 0.9996) at initiation was associated with lost to follow up together with weight at initiation (p-value 0.031, HR 0.9987 at 95% CI (0.9975, 0.9998)) of ART.

Conclusion

This study has demonstrated that lost to follow up is a substantial contributing factor to drop outs among HIV patients on treatment. Strengthening of community treatment supporters especially immediate family members in emphasizing to the client the need to continue treatment is necessary. The health facility could do more in emphasizing the importance of treatment especially in the initial stages. Further, in order to reduce opportunistic infections and probable deaths during treatment, cotrimoxazole prophylaxis should be maintained so as to raise the CD4 levels. Improved nutritional assessment and counseling to boost the nutritional status of the clients throughout should be encouraged.

Predictors of loss to follow-up in antiretroviral treatment for adult patients in the Oromia region, Ethiopia

Purpose

It is known that antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces mortality from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome related causes. Patient’s lost to follow-up (LTFU) in this treatment poses a paramount problem to the public and health care services. Information on predictors of loss to follow-up is scarce in this study area and similar settings. Therefore, this study aimed at identifying correlates of loss to follow-up in ART among adult patients in the Oromia region of Ethiopia.

Methods

A case–control study was conducted between February 2015 and April 2015 using medical records. The stratified sampling technique was used to select health facilities. The number of patient records to be included in the study was proportionally allocated to each stratum based on their patient proportion in the regional data. Specific health facilities from which to include the records were randomly selected from a list of the health facilities per stratum. All adult patient records registered as LTFU (416) in the selected health facilities during the 12-month period prior to the data collection date, and 832 patients with good adherence to ART were included. Data were double-entered into Epi Info 7 and analyzed using SPSS 20. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were used to report the results. Qualitative data were thematically analyzed using open code computer software.

Results

Age 15–24 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 19.82 95% CI: 6.80, 57.73); day laborers (AOR, 5.36; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.23, 8.89), rural residents (AOR, 2.35; 95% CI: 1.45, 3.89), World Health Organization clinical stage IV (AOR, 2.29; 95% CI: 1.45, 3.62), baseline CD4 <350 cells/mL (AOR, 2.06; 95% CI: 1.36, 3.13), suboptimal adherence to ART (AOR, 7.42; 95% CI: 1.87, 29.41), were factors which increased the risk of loss to follow-up in ART.

Conclusion

Multiple risk factors, both socioeconomic and clinical, were associated with loss to follow-up. Attention is required to address these factors during patient preparation for the treatment and follow-up counseling by practitioners. We recommend that other studies identify what happened to the patients registered as LTFU as the current study could not address this issue.

Predictors of Loss to Follow-up Among HIV-infected Patients in a Rural South-Eastern Nigeria Hospital: A 5-year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background:

Patient attrition has been a challenge in managing HIV programs in resource-limited settings.

Aim:

This study reviews the predictors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in our hospital and suggests the best practices for dealing with the issue.

Subjects and Methods:

A 5-year retrospective cohort study of 1256 HIV-infected patients. Baseline CD4 counts, age, gender, year of enrolment, and antiretroviral therapy combination regimen were considered in this study. Kaplan–Meier models were used to estimate the univariate time-to-LTFU and Cox proportional hazards models to identify the multivariate predictors of LTFU.

Results:

Twenty-four percent (23.9% [301/1256]) of patients were lost to follow-up. Baseline CD4 count, year of enrolment, and drug combination were significant predictors of LTFU. Patients enrolled earlier (2008/2009) were twice as likely to be LTFU compared with those enrolled later (2010–2013). Gender and age did not significantly predict LTFU nor confound other predictors.

Conclusion:

The program showed higher LTFU rates than most studies in Nigeria and Africa, maybe due to difficulties with the access to the hospital and possible treatment fatigue. This study recommends the provision of transportation subsidies and proactive patient follow-up with “peer-tracking” to reduce LTFU among HIV infected patients, especially in resource-limited settings.

Survival and determinants of mortality in adult HIV/Aids patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Somali Region, Eastern Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Studies have shown high initial mortality in Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) programs from resource-limited settings. However, there is dearth of evidence on treatment outcomes and associated determinant factors in public hospitals. Therefore, the objective of this study is to assess survival and identify predictors of death in adult HIV-infected patients initiating ART at a public hospital in Eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted by reviewing baseline and follow-up records of patients who started ART between December 1, 2007 and December 31, 2011 at Kharamara hospital. Time to death was the main outcome measure. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate mortality and Cox proportional hazards models to identify predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 784 patients (58.4% females) were followed for a median of 60 months. There were 87 (11.1%) deaths yielding an overall mortality rate of 5.15/100 PYO (95% CI: 4.73-6.37). The estimated mortality was 8.4%, 9.8%, 11.3%, 12.7% and 14.1% at 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months respectively. The independent predictors of death were single marital status (AHR: 2.31; 95%CI: 1.18-4.50), a bedridden functional status (AHR: 5.91; 95%CI: 2.87-12.16), advanced WHO stage (AHR: 7.36; 95%CI: 3.17-17.12), BMI < 18.5 Kg/m2 (AHR: 2.20; 95%CI: 1.18-4.09), CD4 count < 50 cells/µL (AHR: 2.70; 95%CI: 1.26-5.80), severe anemia (AHR: 4.57; 95%CI: 2.30-9.10), and TB co-infection (AHR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.28-4.11).

CONCLUSION

Improved survival was observed in patients taking ART in Somali region of Ethiopia. The risk for death was higher in patients with advanced WHO stage, low CD4 count, low Hgb, low BMI, and concomitant TB infection. Intensive case management is recommended for patients with the prognostic factors. Optimal immunologic and weight recoveries in the first 6 months suggest increased effort to retain patients in care at this period.

Treatment outcomes and their determinants in HIV patients on Anti-retroviral Treatment Program in selected health facilities of Kembata and Hadiya zones, Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region, Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has been providing free Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) since 2005 for HIV/AIDS patients. ART improves survival time and quality of life of HIV patients but ART treatment outcomes might be affected by several factors. However, factors affecting treatment outcomes are poorly understood in Ethiopia. Hence, this study assesses treatment outcomes and its determinants for HIV patients on ART in selected health facilities of Kembata and Hadiya zones.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 730 adult HIV/AIDS patients who enrolled antiretroviral therapy from 2007 to 2011 in four selected health facilities of Kembata and Hadiya zones of Southern Ethiopia. Study subjects were sampled from the health facilities based on population proportion to size. Data was abstracted using data extraction format from medical records. Kaplan-Meier survival function was used to estimate survival probability. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify factors associated with time to death.

Result

Median age of patients was 32.4 years with Inter Quartile Range (IQR) [15, 65]. The female to male ratio of the study participants’ was 1.4:1. Median CD4 count significantly increased during the last four consecutive years of follow up. A total of 92 (12.6 %) patients died, 106(14.5 %) were lost to follow-up, and 109(15 %) were transferred out. Sixty three (68 %) deaths occurred in the first 6 months of treatment. The median survival time was 25 months with IQR [9, 43]. After adjustment for confounders, WHO clinical stage IV [HR 2.42; 95 % CI, 1.19, 5.86], baseline CD4 lymphocyte counts of 201 cell/mm³ and 350 cell/mm³ [HR 0.20; 95 % CI; 0.09−0.43], poor regimen adherence [HR 2.70 95 % CI: 1.4096, 5.20], baseline hemoglobin level of 10gm/dl and above [HR 0.23; 95 % CI: 0.14, 0.37] and baseline functional status of bedridden [HR 3.40; 95 % CI: 1.61, 7.21] were associated with five year survival of HIV patients on ART.

Conclusion

All people living with HIV/AIDS should initiate ART as early as possible. Initiation of ART at the early stages of the disease, before deterioration of the functional status of the patients and before the reduction of CD4 counts and hemoglobin levels with an intensified health education on adherence to ART regimen is recommended.

Do loss to follow-up and death rates from ART care vary across primary health care facilities and hospitals in south Ethiopia? A retrospective follow-up study

Background

Decentralization and task shifting has significantly improved access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Many studies conducted to determine the attrition rate in Ethiopia have not compared attrition rates between hospitals and health centers in a relatively recent cohort of patients. This study compared death and loss to follow-up (LTFU) rates among ART patients in hospitals and health centers in south Ethiopia.

Methods

Data routinely collected from patients aged older than 15 years who started ART between July 2011 and August 2012 in 20 selected health facilities (12 being hospitals) were analyzed. The outcomes of interest were LTFU and death. The data were entered, cleaned, and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 20.0 and Stata version 12.0. Competing-risk regression models were used.

Results

The service years of the facilities were similar (median 8 and 7.5 for hospitals and health centers, respectively). The mean patient age was 33.7±9.6 years. The median baseline CD4 count was 179 (interquartile range 93–263) cells/mm³. A total of 2,356 person-years of observation were made with a median follow-up duration of 28 (interquartile range 22–31) months; 24.6% were either dead or LTFU, resulting in a retention rate of 75.4%. The death rates were 3.0 and 1.5 and the LTFU rate were 9.0 and 10.9 per 100 person-years of observation in health centers and hospitals, respectively. The competing-risk regression model showed that the gap between testing and initiation of ART, body mass index, World Health Organization clinical stage, isoniazid prophylaxis, age, facility type, and educational status were independently associated with LTFU. Moreover, baseline tuberculous disease, poor functional status, and follow-up at a health center were associated with an elevated probability of death.

Conclusion

We observed a higher death rate and a lower LTFU rate in health centers than in hospitals. Most of the associated variables were also previously documented. Higher LTFU was noticed for patients with a smaller gap between testing and initiation of treatment.

Assessment of the impact of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on key outcomes among HIV-infected adults in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Cotrimoxazole (CTX) prophylaxis is among the key interventions provided to HIV-infected individuals in resource-limited settings. We conducted a systematic review of the available evidence.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, SOCA, and African Index Medicus (AIM) were used to identify articles relevant to the CTX prophylaxis intervention from 1995 to 2014. Included articles addressed impact of CTX prophylaxis on the outcomes of mortality, morbidity, retention in care, quality of life, and/or prevention of ongoing HIV transmission. We rated the quality of evidence in individual articles and assessed the overall quality of the body of evidence, the expected impact, and the cost effectiveness (CE) for each outcome.

RESULTS

Of the initial 1418 identified articles, 42 met all inclusion criteria. These included 9 randomized controlled trials, 26 observational studies, 2 systematic reviews with meta-analysis, 1 other systematic review, and 4 CE studies. The overall quality of evidence was rated as "good" and the expected impact "high" for both mortality and morbidity. The overall quality of evidence from the 4 studies addressing retention in care was rated as "poor," and the expected impact on retention was rated as "uncertain." The 4 assessed CE studies showed that provision of CTX prophylaxis is cost effective and sometimes cost saving. No studies addressed impact on quality of life or HIV transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

CTX prophylaxis is a cost-effective intervention with expected high impact on morbidity and mortality reduction in HIV-infected adults in resource-limited settings. Benefits are seen in both pre-antiretroviral therapy and antiretroviral therapy populations.

Prevalence and Predictors of Immunological Failure among HIV Patients on HAART in Southern Ethiopia

Immunological monitoring is part of the standard of care for patients on antiretroviral treatment. Yet, little is known about the routine implementation of immunological laboratory monitoring and utilization in clinical care in Ethiopia. This study assessed the pattern of immunological monitoring, immunological response, level of immunological treatment failure and factors related to it among patients on antiretroviral therapy in selected hospitals in southern Ethiopia. A retrospective longitudinal analytic study was conducted using documents of patients started on antiretroviral therapy. Adequacy of timely immunological monitoring was assessed every six months the first year and every one year thereafter. Immunological response was assessed every six months at cohort level. Immunological failure was based on the criteria: fall of follow-up CD4 cell count to baseline (or below), or CD4 levels persisting below 100 cells/mm3, or 50% fall from on-treatment peak value. A total of 1,321 documents of patients reviewed revealed timely immunological monitoring were inadequate. There was adequate immunological response, with pediatric patients, females, those with less advanced illness (baseline WHO Stage I or II) and those with higher baseline CD4 cell count found to have better immunological recovery. Thirty-nine patients (3%) were not evaluated for immunological failure because they had frequent treatment interruption. Despite overall adequate immunological response at group level, the prevalence of those who ever experienced immunological failure was 17.6% (n=226), while after subsequent re-evaluation it dropped to 11.5% (n=147). Having WHO Stage III/IV of the disease or a higher CD4 cell count at baseline was identified as a risk for immunological failure. Few patients with confirmed failure were switched to second line therapy. These findings highlight the magnitude of the problem of immunological failure and the gap in management. Prioritizing care for high risk patients may help in effective utilization of meager resources.

Characteristics and outcomes of adult Ethiopian patients enrolled in HIV care and treatment: a multi-clinic observational study

Background

We describe trends in characteristics and outcomes among adults initiating HIV care and treatment in Ethiopia from 2006-2011.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis of HIV-positive adults (≥15 years) enrolling at 56 Ethiopian health facilities from 2006–2011. We investigated trends over time in the proportion enrolling through provider-initiated counseling and testing (PITC), baseline CD4+ cell counts and WHO stage. Additionally, we assessed outcomes (recorded death, loss to follow-up (LTF), transfer, and total attrition (recorded death plus LTF)) before and after ART initiation. Kaplan-Meier techniques estimated cumulative incidence of these outcomes through 36 months after ART initiation. Factors associated with LTF and death after ART initiation were estimated using Hazard Ratios accounting for within-clinic correlation.

Results

93,418 adults enrolled into HIV care; 53,300 (57%) initiated ART. The proportion enrolled through PITC increased from 27.6% (2006–2007) to 44.8% (2010–2011) (p < .0001). Concurrently, median enrollment CD4+ cell count increased from 158 to 208 cells/mm³ (p < .0001), and patients initiating ART with advanced WHO stage decreased from 56.6% (stage III) and 15.0% (IV) in 2006–2007 to 47.6% (stage III) and 8.5% (IV) in 2010–2011. Median CD4+ cell count at ART initiation remained stable over time. 24% of patients were LTF before ART initiation. Among those initiating ART, attrition was 30% after 36 months, with most occurring within the first 6 months. Recorded death after ART initiation was 6.4% and 9.2% at 6 and 36 months, respectively, and decreased over time. Younger age, male gender, never being married, no formal education, low CD4+ cell count, and advanced WHO stage were associated with increased LTF. Recorded death was lower among younger adults, females, married individuals, those with higher CD4+ cell counts and lower WHO stage at ART initiation.

Conclusions

Over time, enrollment in HIV care through outpatient PITC increased and patients enrolled into HIV care at earlier disease stages across all HIV testing points. However, median CD4+ cell count at ART initiation remained steady. Pre- and post-ART attrition (particularly in the first 6 months) have remained major challenges in ensuring prompt ART initiation and retention on ART.

Effects of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the survival of HIV-infected adult patients in urban slums of Kenya

Recent improvements in access to Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) have radically reduced hospitalizations and deaths associated with HIV infection in both developed countries and sub-Saharan Africa. Not much is known about survival of patients on ART in slums. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with mortality among adult patients on ART in resource poor, urban, sub-Saharan African setting. A prospective open cohort study was conducted with adult patients on ART at a clinic in Kibera slums, Nairobi, Kenya. The patients' enrollment to care was between March 2005 and November 2011. Descriptive statistics were computed and Kaplan-Meier (KM) methods used to estimate survival time while Cox's proportional hazards (CPH) model fitted to determine mortality predictors. A total of 2,011 adult patients were studied, 69% being female. Female gender (p=0.0016), zidovudine-based regimen patients (p<0.0001), CD4 count>351 patients (p<0.0001), WHO stage I patients (p<0.0001) and "Working" functional status patients recorded better survival probability on ART. In CPH analysis, the hazard of dying was higher in patients on Stavudine-based regimen(hazard ratio (HR)=.8; 95% CI, 1.5-2.2; p<0.0001),CD4 count<50 cells/µl (HR=1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7;p<0.0001), WHO Stage IV at ART initiation (HR=1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.6; p=0.016) and bedridden patients (HR=2.7; 95% CI, 1.7-4.4;p<0.0001). There was increased mortality among the males, those with advanced Immunosuppression, late WHO stage and bedridden patients. The findings further justify the need to switch patients on Stavudine-based regimen as per the WHO recommendations.

Predictors of Loss to follow-up in Patients Living with HIV/AIDS after Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background:

Long-term regular follow up of ART is an important component of HIV care. Patients who are lost to follow-up (LTFU) while on treatment compromise their own health and the long-term success of ART programs.

Aim:

This study was aimed at determining the incidence and risk factors for LTFU in HIV patients on ART at ART clinic of Mizan-Aman General Hospital, Ethiopia.

Materials and Methods:

A retrospective cohort study of 2133 people living with HIV/AIDS and attending an ART clinic between 2005 and 2013 was undertaken. LTFU was defined as not taking an ART refill for a period of 3 months or longer from the last attendance for refill and not yet classified as ‘dead’ or ‘transferred-out’. The log-rank test was used to measure differences in time to LTFU between groups and Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to measure predictors of LTFU.

Results:

Of 2133 patients, 53.9% were female. The mean (SD) age of the cohort was 31.5 (8.0), 16 (2.2), and 3.8 (3.0) years for adults, adolescents, and children, respectively. Around 574 (26.7%) patients were defined as LTFU. The cumulative incidence of LTFU was 8.8 (95% CIs 8.1-9.6) per 1000 person months. Patients with regimen substitution (HR 5.2; 95% CIs 3.6-7.3), non-isoniazid (INH) prophylaxis (HR 3.7; 95% CIs 2.3-6.2), adolescent (HR 2.1; 95% CIs 1.3-3.4), and had a baseline CD₄ count < 200 cells/mm³ (HR 1.7, 95% CIs 1.3-2.2) were at higher risk of LTFU. WHO clinical stage III (HR 0.6; 95% CIs 0.4-0.9) and IV (HR 0.8; 95% CIs 0.6-1.0) patients at entry were less likely to be LTFU than clinical stage I patients. There was no significant difference in risk of LTFU in males and females.

Conclusion:

Overall, these data suggested that LTFU in this study was high. Patients phase of life, drug related factors, and clinical stages were associated with LTFU in this study. Effective control measures in the at-risk population need to be implemented to improve retention.

Predictors of Survival in HIV-Infected Patient after Initiation of HAART in Zewditu Memorial Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Introduction. ART has improved the survival of HIV-infected patients. However, patients in resource-poor countries have higher mortality rates, particularly the first months after initiating ART. In this study we tried to determine the survival factors in HIV-infected patients treated with HAART in Zewditu Memorial Hospital. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2008 to 2012. All HIV-infected patients above the age of 14 took first line ART. Data were collected, entered, and analyzed using Epi Info 7 and SPSS Version 20. Life table was used to estimate mortality after initiation of ART, and Kaplan-Meier was used to compare survival curves. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the predictors of mortality. Results. The incidence of mortality was 3.8/100 person-years. Independent predictors of mortality were WHO clinical stages 3-4 (HR = 2.39 at 95% CI (1.26, 5.31)), anemia (hemoglobin level < 10 gm/dL (HR = 5.54 at 95% CI (2.58, 11.86)). Conclusion. Incidence of mortality was found relatively low, majority of deaths occurring within 3 months of starting ART. WHO stages 3-4, anemia (hemoglobin count < 10 gm/dL), and past TB coinfection were the main predictors of mortality. The underlying causes for early death in patients presenting at late stages should be investigated.

Incidence and predictors of recovery from anaemia within an HIV-infected South African Cohort, 2004-2010

Introduction

Anaemia is one of the most frequent haematological complications in HIV-infected persons. Understandingfactors associated with recovery from anaemia during ART is vital in improving clinical outcomes since anaemia is a strong predictor of mortality.

Methods

Cohort study of 12,441 HIV-infected adults initiating ART between 2004-2010 in Johannesburg, South Africa. A further 2,489 patients with prevalent anaemia at ART initiation were examined to determine the incidence and predictors of recovery from anaemia. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to investigate predictors of recovery from anaemia.

Results

Of the 2,489 patients with prevalent anaemia, most patients (n = 2,225, 89.4%) recovered from anaemia. Median time to anaemia recoverywas 3.9 months (IQR: 3.22-6.20) and incidence rate was 180 per 100person years (95% CI: 172-187). In univariateanalysis, sex, CD4 count, BMI, WHO stage, employment status, smoking status and presence of tuberculosis at initiation ofART were significant predictors of recovery from anaemia. However in multivariateanalysis, predictors of recovery from anaemia were: male sex-HR: 1.43 (95% CI: 1.29-1.59) p< 0.001, advanced WHO stage III/IV - HR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07-1.29) p = 0.001). There was no significant association with CD4 count in multivariate analysis.

Conclusion

A large proportion of HIV infected patients with anaemia at baseline recover early during the course of ART. Females and those with less advanced WHO stage seem to be at higher risk of poor recovery from anaemia. Understanding the predictors for poor recovery from anaemia would allow closer follow-up and more targeted interventions thus reducing excess anaemia and mortality burden.

Determinants of survival in adult HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Eastern Uttar Pradesh: a prospective study

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

The National AIDS Control Organization (NACO) of India has been providing free ARV (antiretroviral) drugs since 2004. b0 y 2012, 486,173 patients had received treatment through the antiretroviral therapy (ART) centres. The objective of this observational study was to assess the factors determining survival of patients on ART under routine programme conditions in an ART centre in north India five years after its inception.

METHODS

Treatment naive HIV positive patients who were enrolled in the ART centre between May 2009 and May 2010 and started on ART as per the Revised NACO guidelines 2009, were included in the study and outcome was assessed after two years of follow up.

RESULTS

A total of 1689 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 272 (16.10%) expired, 205 (12.13%) were lost to follow up (LFU), 526 (31.14%) were transferred out to other facilities and 686 (40.63%) were alive at the end of two years. Majority (92%) of the deaths occurred in the first six months of therapy. Age >30 yr, male gender, poor functional status, haemoglobin level <11 g/dl, body weight <45 kg and CD4 count <100/μl at baseline had significantly higher relative hazard of death. Most LFU also occurred in the first six months and these patients had significantly low CD4 count, weight, haemoglobin level and higher number of patients in Stages III and IV as compared to those who survived.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS

The study findings revealed poor survival in the first six months of therapy especially in those with severe immunosuppression. This emphasizes the need for early enrolment into the programme. The high LFU occurring early after initiation of therapy suggests the urgent need to build an efficient patient retrieval system in the programme.

Determinants of Mortality among Adult HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in a Rural Hospital in Southeastern Nigeria: A 5-Year Cohort Study

Background. Study examined the determinants of mortality among adult HIV patients in a rural, tertiary hospital in southeastern Nigeria, comparing mortality among various ART regimens. Methods. Retrospective cohort study of 1069 patients on ART between August 2008 and October 2013. Baseline CD4 counts, age, gender, and ART regimen were considered in this study. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival and Cox proportional hazards models to identify multivariate predictors of mortality. Median follow-up period was 24 months (IQR 6–45). Results. 78 (7.3%) patients died with 15.6% lost to followup. Significant independent predictors of mortality include age (>45), sex (male > female), baseline CD4 stage (<200), and ART combination. Adjusted mortality hazard was 3 times higher among patients with CD4 count <200 cells/μL than those with counts >500 (95% CI 1.69–13.59). Patients on Truvada-based first-line regimens were 88% more likely to die than those on Combivir-based first line (95% CI 1.05–3.36), especially those with CD4 count <200 cells/μL. Conclusion. Study showed lower mortality than most studies in Nigeria and Africa, with mortality higher among males and patients with CD4 count <200. Further studies are recommended to further compare treatment outcomes between Combivir- and Truvada-based regimens in resource-limited settings using clinical indicators.

Anemia in a cohort of HIV-infected Hispanics: prevalence, associated factors and impact on one-year mortality

BACKGROUND

Anemia occurs frequently in HIV-infected patients and has been associated with an increased risk of death in this population. For Hispanic subjects, information describing this blood disorder during HIV is scarce. Therefore, the present study examined data from a cohort of HIV-positive Hispanics to determine the prevalence of anemia, identify its associated factors, and evaluate its relationship with one-year mortality.

METHODS

This study included 1,486 patients who enrolled between January, 2000 and December, 2010 in an HIV-cohort in Bayamón, Puerto Rico. Data were collected through personal interviews and medical record abstractions. To determine the factors independently associated with anemia, a multivariable logistic regression model was used. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were also performed to estimate survival time and to predict death risk.

RESULTS

The prevalence of anemia at enrollment was 41.5%. Factors independently associated with increased odds of anemia were: unemployment (OR = 2.02; 95% CI 1.45-2.79), CD4 count <200 cells/μL (OR = 2.66; 95% CI 1.94-3.66), HIV viral load ≥100,000 copies/mL (OR = 1.94; 95% CI 1.36-2.78), white blood cell count <4,000 cells/μL (OR = 2.42; 95% CI 1.78-3.28) and having clinical AIDS (OR = 2.39; 95% CI 1.39-4.09). Overweight (OR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.32-0.59) and obese (OR = 0.44; 95% CI 0.29-0.67) BMI's were independently associated with reduced odds of anemia. Survival differed significantly by anemia status (log-rank test: p < 0.001). One-year mortality estimates were: 30.8%, 23.3%, 8.4% and 2.5%, for patients with severe, moderate, mild and no anemia, respectively. Having anemia at baseline was independently associated with an increased one-year mortality risk (severe anemia: HR = 9.06; 95% CI: 4.16-19.72; moderate anemia: HR = 6.51; 95% CI: 3.25-13.06; mild anemia: HR = 2.53; 95% CI: 1.35-4.74).

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of anemia at enrollment was observed in this cohort of HIV-infected Hispanics. Unemployment and several adverse prognostic features of HIV infection were independently associated with this blood disorder. Anemia resulted to be the strongest predictor of one-year mortality, evidencing a dose-response effect. Further investigations are needed to evaluate whether recovering from anemia is associated with longer survival, and to identify the types of anemia affecting this particular group of HIV patients.

Predictors of mortality among patients enrolled on antiretroviral therapy in Aksum hospital, northern Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Since launching of antiretroviral (ART) treatment, the numbers of patients enrolled in to ART are increasing in many developing countries. But many studies done across Africa including Ethiopia on antiretroviral therapy programs have shown higher mortality at the first six months of treatment initiation. But the factors associated with this high mortality are poorly characterized. So this study aims to determine mortality and identify predictors of it among patients on ART.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study was employed among a total of 520 records of patients who were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy in Aksum hospital from September 2006 to August 2011. Baseline patient records were extracted from electronic and paper based medical records database and analysed using Kaplan Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard model to identify the independent predictors of mortality of patients on ART.

RESULTS

A total of 46 (8.85%) deaths was observed giving an overall mortality rate of 3.2 per 100 person-years. The independent predictor of mortality identified for this cohort were haemoglobin level <11 mg/dl (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.9, 95%-CI = 1.01, 3.52), CD4 cell counts lower than 50 cells/µl (HR = 2.1, 95%- CI = 1.13,3.89), Male gender (HR = 1.9, 95%-CI = 1.01,3.52), Weight <40 kg (HR = 2.3,95% CI = 1.24,4.55), primary level of education and lower (HR = 2.6, 95%- CI = 1.29,5.55).

CONCLUSIONS

The over all mortality of adults patients on ART was low but higher in the early months of ART initiation. low levels of haemoglobin <11 gm/dl, lower CD4 cell count, male gender, weight <40 Kg and individuals who have primary level of education and lower were identified as the independent predictors of mortality. For this reason, early initiation of ART despite the CD4 count and method of HIV diagnosis, nutritional support and close monitoring of patients in the early periods of ART treatment initiation is very crucial to improve patient survival.

Survival on antiretroviral treatment among adult HIV-infected patients in Nepal: a retrospective cohort study in Far-western region, 2006-2011

Background

Though financial and policy level efforts are made to expand antiretroviral treatment (ART) service free of cost, survival outcome of ART program has not been systematically evaluated in Nepal. This study assesses the mortality rates and determinants among adult HIV-infected patients on ART in Far-western region of Nepal.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included 1024 (51.2% men) HIV-infected patients aged ≥15 years, who started ART between May 15^th 2006 and May 15^th 2011 in five ART sites in the Far-western region, Nepal. Follow-up time was calculated from the date of ART initiation to date of death or censoring (loss to follow-up, transferred out, or 15 November 2011). Mortality rates (per 100 person-years) were calculated. Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression models were used to estimate survival and explore determinants of mortality.

Results

The median follow-up time was 19.1 months. The crude mortality rate was 6.3 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.6) but more than three-times higher in first 3 months after ART initiation (21.9 (95% CI 16.6- 28.8)). About 12% (83% men) of those newly initiated on ART died during follow-up. The independent determinants of mortality were male sex (hazard ratio (HR) 4.55, 95% CI 2.43-8.51), poor baseline performance scale (bedridden <50% of the day during the past month, HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.19-3.52; bedridden >50% of the day during the past month, HR 3.41, 95% CI 1.67-6.98 compared to normal activity), one standard deviation decrease in baseline bodyweight (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07), and poor WHO clinical stage (stage III, HR 2.96, 95% CI 1.31-6.69; stage IV, HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.30-8.29 compared to WHO clinical stage I or II).

Conclusions

High mortality was observed within the first 3 months of ART initiation. Patients with poor baseline clinical characteristics had higher mortality, especially men. Earlier initiation of ART through expanded testing and counselling should be encouraged in HIV-infected patients.

The effect of a maturing antiretroviral program on early mortality for patients with advanced immune-suppression in Soweto, South Africa

Objective

We hypothesize that time to initiate care and maturity of a treatment program impact on outcome of severely immuno-compromised patients with higher risk of mortality.

Design

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis at the Perinatal HIV Research Unit Adult ART clinic, Soweto, South Africa.

Methods

Eligibility criteria for this analysis were: attendance for minimum one visit between August 2004 and August 2010, age >18 years, CD4 count < 50 cells/mm³ and ART-naïve at screening. We followed participants up to one year after ART initiation. We defined years 2004-2007 and 2008-2010 as the early and late eras respectively. Chi-square test and survival analysis methods were used for mortality comparisons between eras.

Results

Of 2357 patients eligible for antiretroviral treatment, 395 (17%) had CD4 counts < 50 cells/mm³ and ART-naïve at screening. Overall 261 (66%) were women. Patients had similar median age (35 vs. 33.5 years, p=0.08), time to HAART initiation (7 days, p=0.18) and baseline CD4 count (20 vs. 23 cells/mm³, p=0.5) between eras. Overall 63 (16%) patients died in their first year of treatment (2 per 100 person-months) and the main cause of death was tuberculosis (n=23, 37%). The proportion of deaths (52/262 vs. 11/133, p=0.003) and time to death from enrolment (logrank p=0.04) were significantly different between eras.

Conclusion

Mortality decreased as the ART program matured in Soweto while time to initiation of treatment remained similar in both eras. Because ART guidelines were consistent during both eras, it is possible that with time, management of patients improved as expertise was gained.

Comparison of cryptococcal antigenemia between antiretroviral naïve and antiretroviral experienced HIV positive patients at two hospitals in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Cryptococcal meningitis is a major cause of HIV/AIDS-related deaths in Africa. Cryptococcosis is a neglected killer. However, meningitis can be prevented by early cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening and preemptive antifungal treatment during a prolonged period of detectable, subclinical infection. We determined the prevalence of cryptococcal antigenemia in comparison to CD4 count and clinical symptoms.

METHODS

We surveyed 254 consenting HIV-infected participants to obtain demographic information and clinical history. Serum CrAg was measured by latex agglutination at two sites in the Oromia region of Ethiopia among all persons receiving a CD4 count.

RESULTS

Of the 254 participants, 127(50.0%) were ART-naïve, 121(47.6%) were ART-experienced, and 6(2.4%) were ART-defaulters. The prevalence of cryptococcal antigenemia was 10.2% overall being 14.2% among ART-naive, 4.1% among ART-experienced, and 50% (3/6) among ART-defaulters, irrespective of CD4 count. Cryptococcal antigenemia was more frequently detected from ART-naïve patients (p = 0.012) and ART-defaulters (p = 0.001) compared with ART-experienced. Serum CrAg positivity was 20.9% in persons with CD4≤150 cells/µL, 12.2% in 151-200 cells/µL, 5.8% among 201-350 CD4/µL, and none above 350 cells/µL. Potential meningitis symptoms were common in the outpatient cohort irrespective of CrAg-status, with only fever and altered mental status statistically more common in CrAg-positive compared to CrAg-negative persons (P<0.05), yet no symptom had a positive predictive value >33%.

CONCLUSION

We report a 20.9% cryptococcal antigenemia prevalence among those with CD4+ T cells count ≤150 cells/µL, irrespective of ART status, with even higher CrAg prevalence in ART-naïves and ART-defaulters. These groups are target populations for CrAg screening at entry into HIV care.

Impact of HIV-associated conditions on mortality in people commencing anti-retroviral therapy in resource limited settings

Objectives

To identify associations between specific WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions diagnosed after ART initiation and all cause mortality for patients in resource-limited settings (RLS).

Design, Setting

Analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010.

Subjects, Participants

36,664 study participants with median ART follow-up of 1.26 years (IQR 0.55–2.27).

Outcome Measures

Using a proportional hazards model we identified factors associated with mortality, including the occurrence of specific WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during the 6-months following ART initiation.

Results

There were 2922 deaths during follow-up (8.0%). The crude mortality rate was 5.41 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 5.21–5.61). The diagnosis of any WHO stage 3 or 4 condition during the first 6 months of ART was associated with increased mortality (HR: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.97–2.47). After adjustment for age, sex, region and pre-ART CD4 count, a diagnosis of extrapulmonary cryptococcosis (aHR: 3.54; 95% CI: 2.74–4.56), HIV wasting syndrome (aHR: 2.92; 95%CI: 2.21 -3.85), non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection (aHR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.80–3.28) and Pneumocystis pneumonia (aHR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.80–3.28) were associated with the greatest increased mortality. Cerebral toxoplasmosis, pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, Kaposi’s sarcoma and oral and oesophageal candidiasis were associated with increased mortality, though at lower rates.

Conclusions

A diagnosis of certain WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions is associated with an increased risk of mortality in those initiating ART in RLS. This information will assist initiatives to reduce excess mortality, including prioritization of resources for diagnostics, therapeutic interventions and research.

Screening HIV-infected adults in Malawi for anaemia: impact on eligibility for antiretroviral therapy

Clinical staging determines antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility when CD4 count is not available. Haemoglobin (Hb) ≤8 g/dL is an indication for the treatment. We measured Hb in HIV-positive Malawian adults undergoing clinical assessment for ART eligibility and calculated the percentage of patients with CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μL deemed eligible for ART by clinical staging with and without Hb measurement, using the existing threshold and an alternative proposed after comparing Hb values to CD4 counts. Three hundred and thirty-eight patients had CD4 counts measured and 226 (67%) had CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μL. Thirty-six (16%) patients with low CD4 count were eligible for ART by clinical assessment alone, 48 (21%) when Hb was also measured with a threshold of ≤8 g/dL and 74 (34%) with a threshold of ≤10 g/dL. Measuring Hb alongside clinical assessment could increase the number of patients with CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μL starting ART by 33% using a threshold of Hb ≤ 8 g/dL or 114% with a threshold of ≤10g/dL.