Potential for human immunodeficiency virus parenteral transmission in the Middle East and North Africa: An analysis using hepatitis C virus as a proxy biomarker

Hepatitis C risk score as a tool to identify individuals with HCV infection: a demonstration and cross-sectional epidemiological study in Egypt

OBJECTIVES

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country.

METHODS

We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores.

RESULTS

The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.

Variable Proportions of Phylogenetic Clustering and Low Levels of Antiviral Drug Resistance among the Major HBV Sub-Genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major public health threat in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Phylogenetic analysis of HBV can be helpful to study the putative transmission links and patterns of inter-country spread of the virus. The objectives of the current study were to analyze the HBV genotype/sub-genotype (SGT) distribution, reverse transcriptase (RT), and surface (S) gene mutations and to investigate the domestic transmission of HBV in the MENA. All HBV molecular sequences collected in the MENA were retrieved from GenBank as of 30 April 2021. Determination of genotypes/SGT, RT, and S mutations were based on the Geno2pheno (hbv) 2.0 online tool. For the most prevalent HBV SGTs, maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis was conducted to identify the putative phylogenetic clusters, with approximate Shimodaira-Hasegawa-like likelihood ratio test values ≥ 0.90, and genetic distance cut-off values ≤ 0.025 substitutions/site as implemented in Cluster Picker. The total number of HBV sequences used for genotype/SGT determination was 4352 that represented a total of 20 MENA countries, with a majority from Iran (n = 2103, 48.3%), Saudi Arabia (n = 503, 11.6%), Tunisia (n = 395, 9.1%), and Turkey (n = 267, 6.1%). Genotype D dominated infections in the MENA (86.6%), followed by genotype A (4.1%), with SGT D1 as the most common in 14 MENA countries and SGT D7 dominance in the Maghreb. The highest prevalence of antiviral drug resistance was observed against lamivudine (4.5%) and telbivudine (4.3%). The proportion of domestic phylogenetic clustering was the highest for SGT D7 (61.9%), followed by SGT D2 (28.2%) and genotype E (25.7%). The largest fraction of domestic clusters with evidence of inter-country spread within the MENA was seen in SGT D7 (81.3%). Small networks (containing 3-14 sequences) dominated among domestic phylogenetic clusters. Specific patterns of HBV genetic diversity were seen in the MENA with SGT D1 dominance in the Levant, Iran, and Turkey; SGT D7 dominance in the Maghreb; and extensive diversity in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. A low prevalence of lamivudine, telbivudine, and entecavir drug resistance was observed in the region, with almost an absence of resistance to tenofovir and adefovir. Variable proportions of phylogenetic clustering indicated prominent domestic transmission of SGT D7 (particularly in the Maghreb) and relatively high levels of virus mobility in SGT D1.

Key associations for hepatitis C virus genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa

This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) through an analytical and quantitative meta-regression methodology. For the most common genotypes 1, 3, and 4, country/subregion explained more than 77% of the variation in the distribution of each genotype. Genotype 1 was common across MENA, and was more present in high-risk clinical populations than in the general population. Genotype 3 was much more present in Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan than the rest of countries, and was associated with transmission through injecting drug use. Genotype 4 was broadly disseminated in Egypt in all populations, with overall limited presence elsewhere. While genotype 2 was more present in high-risk clinical populations and people who inject drugs, most of the variation in its distribution remained unexplained. Genotypes 5, 6, and 7 had low or no presence in MENA, limiting the epidemiological inferences that could be drawn. To sum up, geography is the principal determinant of HCV genotype distribution. Genotype 1 is associated with transmission through high-risk clinical procedures, while genotype 3 is associated with injecting drug use. These findings demonstrate the power of such analytical approach, which if extended to other regions and globally, can yield relevant epidemiological inferences.

Characterizing the temporal evolution of the hepatitis C virus epidemic in Pakistan

Pakistan has the second largest number of HCV infections in the world. We assessed past, present and future levels and trends of the HCV epidemic in Pakistan. An age-structured mathematical model was developed and analysed to describe transmission dynamics over 1980-2050. The model was fitted to a nationally representative survey and a comprehensive database of systematically gathered HCV Ab prevalence data. HCV Ab and chronic infection prevalences peaked at 5.3% and 3.9% in 2000 but were projected to decline to 4.3% and 3.2% by 2017, 3.4% and 2.6% by 2030 and 2.6% and 1.9% by 2050, respectively. The number of chronically infected individuals was estimated at 6 663 906 in 2017 and was projected to peak at 6 665 900 in 2018 and decline to 6 372 100 in 2030 and 5 131 500 in 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 346 740 in 1992 but was projected to decline to 198 320 in 2017, 151 090 in 2030 and 98 120 in 2050. Incidence rate per 100 000 person-year peaked at 343 in 1988 but was projected to decline to 99 in 2017, 62 in 2030 and 36 in 2050. Prevalence and incidence varied by age, and the majority of new infections occurred in the 20-39 age group. Prevalence and incidence of HCV in Pakistan have been slowly declining for two decades-Pakistan is enduring a large epidemic that will persist for decades if not controlled. Nearly, 10% of global infections are in Pakistan, with about 200 000 additional infections every year. Rapid and mass scale-up of prevention and treatment programmes are critically needed.

Individual-level key associations and modes of exposure for hepatitis C virus infection in the Middle East and North Africa: a systematic synthesis

PURPOSE

To identify, map, and synthesize the individual-level key associations and modes of exposure for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the most affected region by HCV.

METHODS

Source of data was the MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project database, populated through systematic literature searches. Risk factors determined to be statistically significant after adjustment for confounders were extracted and categorized into key associations or modes of exposure.

RESULTS

In total, 329 risk factors were identified from 109 articles in 14 of 24 MENA countries. Among key associations, age was most frequently reported (n = 39; 34.2%), followed by other infections/diseases (n = 20; 17.5%), and incarceration (n = 17; 14.9%). Among modes of exposure, health care-related exposures were most frequently reported (n = 127; 59.5%), followed by injecting drug use exposures (n = 45; 20.9%), community-related exposures (n = 34; 15.8%), and sexual-related exposures (n = 8; 3.7%). Blood transfusion, hemodialysis, surgical and other medical procedures, dental work, and medical injections were identified as key health care-related exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

Health care appears to be the primary driver of prevalent (and possibly incident) infections in MENA, followed by injecting drug use. HCV screening should target the identified modes of exposure. Commitment to prevention should be an integral component of HCV response to achieve HCV elimination by 2030, with focus on strengthening infection control in health care facilities, improving injection safety and blood screening, and expanding harm reduction services for people who inject drugs.

Hepatitis C virus genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa: Distribution, diversity, and patterns

Our objective was to characterize the distribution, diversity and patterns of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Source of data was a database of HCV genotype studies in MENA populated using a series of systematic literature searches. Pooled mean proportions were estimated for each genotype and by country using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects meta-analyses. Genotype diversity within countries was assessed using Shannon Diversity Index. Number of chronic infections by genotype and country was calculated using the pooled proportions and country-specific numbers of chronic infection. Analyses were conducted on 338 genotype studies including 82 257 genotyped individuals. Genotype 1 was dominant (≥50%) in Algeria, Iran, Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, and UAE, and was overall ubiquitous across the region. Genotype 2 was common (10-50%) in Algeria, Bahrain, Libya, and Morocco. Genotype 3 was dominant in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Genotype 4 was dominant in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Genotypes 5, 6, and 7 had limited or no presence across countries. Genotype diversity varied immensely throughout MENA. Weighted by population size, MENA's chronic infections were highest among genotype 3, followed by genotype 4, genotype 1, genotype 2, genotype 5, and genotype 6. Despite ubiquitous presence of genotype 1, the vast majority of chronic infections were of genotypes 3 or 4, because of the sizable epidemics in Pakistan and Egypt. Three sub-regional patterns were identified: genotype 3 pattern centered in Pakistan, genotype 4 pattern centered in Egypt, and genotype 1 pattern ubiquitous in most MENA countries.

Status of HIV and hepatitis C virus infections among prisoners in the Middle East and North Africa: review and synthesis

INTRODUCTION

The status of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections among incarcerated populations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and the links between prisons and the HIV epidemic are poorly understood. This review synthesized available HIV and HCV data in prisons in MENA and highlighted opportunities for action.

METHODS

The review was based on data generated through the systematic searches of the MENA HIV/AIDS Epidemiology Synthesis Project (2003 to December 15, 2015) and the MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project (2011 to December 15, 2015). Sources of data included peer-reviewed publications and country-level reports and databases.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We estimated a population of 496,000 prisoners in MENA, with drug-related offences being a major cause for incarceration. Twenty countries had data on HIV among incarcerated populations with a median prevalence of 0.6% in Afghanistan, 6.1% in Djibouti, 0.01% in Egypt, 2.5% in Iran, 0% in Iraq, 0.1% in Jordan, 0.05% in Kuwait, 0.7% in Lebanon, 18.0% in Libya, 0.7% in Morocco, 0.3% in Oman, 1.1% in Pakistan, 0% in Palestine, 1.2% in Saudi Arabia, 0% in Somalia, 5.3% in Sudan and South Sudan, 0.04% in Syria, 0.05% in Tunisia, and 3.5% in Yemen. Seven countries had data on HCV, with a median prevalence of 1.7% in Afghanistan, 23.6% in Egypt, 28.1% in Lebanon, 15.6% in Pakistan, and 37.8% in Iran. Syria and Libya had only one HCV prevalence measure each at 1.5% and 23.7%, respectively. There was strong evidence for injecting drug use and the use of non-sterile injecting-equipment in prisons. Incarceration and injecting drugs, use of non-sterile injecting-equipment, and tattooing in prisons were found to be independent risk factors for HIV or HCV infections. High levels of sexual risk behaviour, tattooing and use of non-sterile razors among prisoners were documented.

CONCLUSIONS

Prisons play an important role in HIV and HCV dynamics in MENA and have facilitated the emergence of large HIV epidemics in at least two countries, Iran and Pakistan. There is evidence for substantial but variable HIV and HCV prevalence, as well as risk behaviour including injecting drug use and unprotected sex among prisoners across countries. These findings highlight the need for comprehensive harm-reduction strategies in prisons.

Using hepatitis C prevalence to estimate HIV epidemic potential among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to understand the association between HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and to estimate HIV epidemic potential among PWIDs using HCV prevalence.

DESIGN/METHODS

Using data from a systematic review of HIV and HCV among PWID in MENA, we conducted two analyses, stratified by HIV epidemic state: a meta-analysis of the risk ratio of HCV to HIV prevalence (RRHCV/HIV) using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects models, and multivariable linear regression predicting log HIV prevalence. The HCV-HIV association from both analyses was used to estimate HIV prevalence at endemic equilibrium. We compared predicted with current HIV prevalence to classify HIV epidemic potential at country-level as low, medium or high, using predefined criteria.

RESULTS

The review identified 88 HCV prevalence measures among PWID in MENA, of which 54 had a paired HIV prevalence measure. The pooled RRHCV/HIV were 16, 4 and 3 in low-level, emerging and established HIV epidemics, respectively. There was a significant linear relationship between HCV and HIV at endemic equilibrium (P = 0.002). The predicted endemic HIV prevalence ranged between 8% (Tunisia) and 22% (Pakistan). Of the nine countries with data, five have high and three medium HIV epidemic potential. Only one country, Pakistan, appears to have reached saturation.

CONCLUSION

HCV prevalence could be a predictor of future endemic HIV prevalence. In MENA, we predict that there will be further HIV epidemic growth among PWID. The proposed methodology can identify PWID populations that should be prioritized for HIV prevention interventions.

The Epidemiology of Hepatitis C Virus in the Fertile Crescent: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in countries of the Fertile Crescent region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), namely Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed and synthesized available records of HCV incidence and prevalence following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were implemented using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model with inverse weighting to estimate the country-specific HCV prevalence among the various at risk population groups.

RESULTS

We identified eight HCV incidence and 240 HCV prevalence measures in the Fertile Crescent. HCV sero-conversion risk among hemodialysis patients was 9.2% in Jordan and 40.3% in Iraq, and ranged between 0% and 3.5% among other populations in Iraq over different follow-up times. Our meta-analyses estimated HCV prevalence among the general population at 0.2% in Iraq (range: 0-7.2%; 95% CI: 0.1-0.3%), 0.3% in Jordan (range: 0-2.0%; 95% CI: 0.1-0.5%), 0.2% in Lebanon (range: 0-3.4%; 95% CI: 0.1-0.3%), 0.2% in Palestine (range: 0-9.0%; 95% CI: 0.2-0.3%), and 0.4% in Syria (range: 0.3-0.9%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.5%). Among populations at high risk, HCV prevalence was estimated at 19.5% in Iraq (range: 0-67.3%; 95% CI: 14.9-24.5%), 37.0% in Jordan (range: 21-59.5%; 95% CI: 29.3-45.0%), 14.5% in Lebanon (range: 0-52.8%; 95% CI: 5.6-26.5%), and 47.4% in Syria (range: 21.0-75.0%; 95% CI: 32.5-62.5%). Genotypes 4 and 1 appear to be the dominant circulating strains.

CONCLUSIONS

HCV prevalence in the population at large appears to be below 1%, lower than that in other MENA sub-regions, and tending towards the lower end of the global range. However, there is evidence for ongoing HCV transmission within medical facilities and among people who inject drugs (PWID). Migration dynamics appear to have played a role in determining the circulating genotypes. HCV prevention efforts should be targeted, and focus on infection control in clinical settings and harm reduction among PWID.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in the Maghreb region: systematic review and meta-analyses

Objective

To systematically review and synthesize available epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb region and to estimate the country-specific population-level HCV prevalence.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of HCV antibody prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb countries as outlined by the PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were conducted using DerSimonian-Laird random-effect models with inverse variance weighting to pool HCV prevalence estimates among general population groups.

Results

We identified 133 HCV prevalence measures and two HCV incidence measures. Among high risk groups, HCV prevalence ranged between 22% and 94% among people who inject drugs, 20% and 76% among dialysis patients, and 2% and 51% among hemophiliacs. Among intermediate-risk groups, considerable but widely variable HCV prevalence was found. Most common risk factors cited across studies were the duration of dialysis, number of transfusions, and having a history of surgery or dental work. The national HCV prevalence in Algeria was estimated at 0.3% (95%CI: 0.1–0.5), Libya 1.2% (95%CI: 1.1–1.3), Mauritania 1.1% (95%CI: 0–2.3), Morocco 0.8% (95%CI: 0.5–1.2), and Tunisia 0.6% (95%CI: 0.5–0.8).

Conclusions

HCV prevalence in the Maghreb region of the Middle East and North Africa is comparable to that in developed countries of about 1%. HCV exposures appear often to be linked to medical care and are suggestive of ongoing transmission in such settings. Injecting drug use appears also to be a major, though not dominant, contributor to HCV transmission. Further research is needed to draw a more thorough understanding of HCV epidemiology, especially in the countries with limited number of studies. HCV prevention policy and programming in these countries should focus on the settings of exposure.