Prediction models of hepatocellular carcinoma development in chronic hepatitis B patients

Risk predictive model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma before initiating long-term antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

It is generally acknowledged that antiviral therapy can reduce the incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there remains a subset of patients with chronic HBV infection who develop HCC despite receiving antiviral treatment. This study aimed to develop a model capable of predicting the long-term occurrence of HCC in patients with chronic HBV infection before initiating antiviral therapy. A total of 1450 patients with chronic HBV infection, who received initial antiviral therapy between April 2006 and March 2023 and completed long-term follow-ups, were nonselectively enrolled in this study. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox regression analysis was used to construct the model. The results were validated in an external cohort (n = 210) and compared with existing models. The median follow-up time for all patients was 60 months, with a maximum follow-up time of 144 months, during which, 32 cases of HCC occurred. The nomogram model for predicting HCC based on GGT, AFP, cirrhosis, gender, age, and hepatitis B e antibody (TARGET-HCC) was constructed, demonstrating a good predictive performance. In the derivation cohort, the C-index was 0.906 (95% CI = 0.869-0.944), and in the validation cohort, it was 0.780 (95% CI = 0.673-0.886). Compared with existing models, TARGET-HCC showed promising predictive performance. Additionally, the time-dependent feature importance curve indicated that gender consistently remained the most stable predictor for HCC throughout the initial decade of antiviral therapy. This simple predictive model based on noninvasive clinical features can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients with chronic HBV infection for HCC before the initiation of antiviral therapy.

Predictive Risk Factors and Scoring Systems Associated with the Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection constitutes a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. The identification of HCC risk factors and the development of prognostic risk scores are essential for early diagnosis and prognosis. The aim of this observational, retrospective study was to evaluate baseline risk factors associated with HCC in CHB. Six hundred thirty-two consecutive adults with CHB (n = 632) [median age: 46 (IQR: 24)], attending the outpatients' Hepatology clinics between 01/1993-09/2020 were evaluated. Core promoter mutations and cirrhosis-HCC (GAG-HCC), Chinese University-HCC (CU-HCC), risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (REACH-B), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and Platelet Age Gender-HBV (PAGE-B) prognostic scores were calculated, and receiver operating curves were used to assess their prognostic performance. HCC was developed in 34 (5.38%) patients. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (HR: 1.086, 95% CI: 1.037-1.137), male sex (HR: 7.696, 95% CI: 1.971-30.046), alcohol abuse (HR: 2.903, 95% CI: 1.222-6.987) and cirrhosis (HR: 21.239, 95% CI: 6.001-75.167) at baseline were independently associated with the development of HCC. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed the highest performance with c-statistics of 0.895 (95% CI: 0.829-0.961) and 0.857 (95% CI: 0.791-0.924), respectively. In the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis, the performance of all scores declined. When treated and untreated patients were studied separately, the discriminatory ability of the scores differed. In conclusion, HCC development was independently associated with advanced age, male sex, alcohol abuse, and baseline cirrhosis among a diverse population with CHB. GAG-HCC and PAGE-B showed high discriminatory performance to assess the risk of HCC development in these patients, but these performances declined in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. Further research to develop scores more specific to certain CHB subgroups is needed.

A pathologic scoring system for predicting postoperative prognosis in patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of pathological factors to predict the prognosis of patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) is unclear. We aimed to develop and validate a novel scoring system based on pathological factors to predict the postoperative survival of patients with rHCC.

METHOD

Patients with rHCC who underwent hepatectomy were recruited from three hospitals and allocated to the training (n = 221) and validation (n = 194) cohorts. A new scoring system, namely the MSE (microvascular invasion-satellite foci-Edmondson Steiner) score, was established based on three pathological factors using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses, including microvascular invasion, satellite foci, and differentiation grade. Finally, patients were stratified into three groups based on their risk of prognosis (low, intermediate, or high) according to their MSE score. We also constructed MSE score-based nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was assessed by receiver operating characteristic and calibration curve analyses and validated using the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Three pathological factors were significantly correlated with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), three of which were included in the MSE score. The score can clearly stratify rHCC patients after hepatectomy (P < 0.05). And we established nomograms based on the MSE score (MSE score, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, and alpha-fetoprotein concentration) to predict postoperative OS and RFS in patients with rHCC. The nomograms showed good discrimination, with C-indices over 0.760 for OS and RFS at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. The calibration curve showed excellent nomogram calibration, which was also verified in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The clinical MSE score were accurate in predicting OS and RFS in patients with rHCC with resectable lesions after hepatectomy.

Evaluation of PAGE-B Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients: Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) constitutes a major global public health issue, affecting millions of individuals. Despite the implementation of robust vaccination programs, the hepatitis B virus (HBV) significantly influences morbidity and mortality rates. CHB emerges as one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), introducing a major challenge in the effective management of CHB patients. Therefore, it is of utmost clinical importance to diligently monitor individuals with CHB who are at high risk of HCC development. While various prognostic scores have been developed for surveillance and screening purposes, their accuracy in predicting HCC risk may be limited, particularly in patients under treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. The PAGE-B model, incorporating age, gender, and platelet count, has exhibited remarkable accuracy, validity, and reliability in predicting HCC occurrence among CHB patients receiving HBV treatment. Its predictive performance stands out, whether considered independently or in comparison to alternative HCC risk scoring systems. Furthermore, the introduction of targeted adjustments to the calculation of the PAGE-B score might have the potential to further improve its predictive accuracy. This review aims to evaluate the efficacy of the PAGE-B score as a dependable tool for accurate prediction of the development of HCC in CHB patients. The evidence discussed aims to provide valuable insights for guiding recommendations on HCC surveillance within this specific population.

Love-hate relationship between hepatitis B virus and type 2 diabetes: a Mendelian randomization study

Objective

The impact of hepatitis B virus (HBV) on the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains a controversial topic. This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between HBV and T2D using Mendelian randomization (MR).

Methods

Single nucleotide polymorphisms on chronic hepatitis B (CHB), liver fibrosis, liver cirrhosis, and T2D were obtained from BioBank Japan Project, European Bioinformatics Institute, and FinnGen. Mendelian randomization was utilized to evaluate exposure-outcome causality. Inverse variance weighted was used as the primary method for MR analysis. To assess horizontal pleiotropy and heterogeneity, we conducted MR-Egger intercept analysis and Cochran's Q test, and the robustness of the MR analysis results was evaluated through leave-one-out sensitivity analysis.

Results

MR analysis revealed that CHB was associated with a decreased genetic susceptibility to T2D (OR, 0.975; 95% CI, 0.962-0.989; p < 0.001) while liver cirrhosis (OR, 1.021; 95% CI, 1.007-1.036; p = 0.004) as well as liver cirrhosis and liver fibrosis (OR, 1.015; 95% CI, 1.002-1.028; p = 0.020) were associated with an increased genetic susceptibility to T2D. MR-Egger intercept showed no horizontal pleiotropy (p > 0.05). Cochran's Q showed no heterogeneity (p > 0.05). Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust.

Conclusion

CHB has the potential to act as a protective factor for T2D, but its effectiveness is constrained by viral load and disease stage. This protective effect diminishes or disappears as viral load decreases, and it transforms into a risk factor with the progression to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis.

Liver Carcinogenesis Suppression in Chronic Hepatitis B in the Nucleoside Analogues Era

There is a strong association between the distribution of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) carriers and the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). About 60% of HCC in Japan is caused by viral hepatitis. Ten to 15 percent of hepatitis virus-related HCCs derive from HBV. Recently, antiviral therapy against HBV has developed, and interferon therapy and nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) are currently the standard of care. NAs exhibit antiviral activity by inhibiting DNA polymerase and suppressing HBV replication. NAs are highly effective in suppressing HBV-DNA and improving alanine aminotransferase. The long-term treatment goal for chronic hepatitis B is HB surface antigen (HBsAg) loss. However, the number of patients who achieve HBsAg loss by NA (i.e., functional cure) is low and there have been cases of HCC incidence during (or after) NA therapy. In this article, we review the efficacy of NA therapy in suppressing HBV-derived carcinogenesis.

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT).

METHODS

Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

A hierarchical multilabel graph attention network method to predict the deterioration paths of chronic hepatitis B patients

OBJECTIVE

Estimating the deterioration paths of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients is critical for physicians' decisions and patient management. A novel, hierarchical multilabel graph attention-based method aims to predict patient deterioration paths more effectively. Applied to a CHB patient data set, it offers strong predictive utilities and clinical value.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The proposed method incorporates patients' responses to medications, diagnosis event sequences, and outcome dependencies to estimate deterioration paths. From the electronic health records maintained by a major healthcare organization in Taiwan, we collect clinical data about 177 959 patients diagnosed with hepatitis B virus infection. We use this sample to evaluate the proposed method's predictive efficacy relative to 9 existing methods, as measured by precision, recall, F-measure, and area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

We use 20% of the sample as holdouts to test each method's prediction performance. The results indicate that our method consistently and significantly outperforms all benchmark methods. It attains the highest AUC, with a 4.8% improvement over the best-performing benchmark, as well as 20.9% and 11.4% improvements in precision and F-measures, respectively. The comparative results demonstrate that our method is more effective for predicting CHB patients' deterioration paths than existing predictive methods.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

The proposed method underscores the value of patient-medication interactions, temporal sequential patterns of distinct diagnosis, and patient outcome dependencies for capturing dynamics that underpin patient deterioration over time. Its efficacious estimates grant physicians a more holistic view of patient progressions and can enhance their clinical decision-making and patient management.

Transcriptomic Analysis of Hepatitis B Infected Liver for Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular cancer (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, and chronic hepatitis B virus infection (CHB) has been a major risk factor for HCC development. The pathogenesis of HBV-related HCC has been a major focus revealing the interplay of a multitude of intracellular signaling pathways, yet the precise mechanisms and their implementations to clinical practice remain to be elucidated. This study utilizes publicly available transcriptomic data from the livers of CHB patients in order to identify a population with a higher risk of malignant transformation. We report the identification of a novel list of genes (PCM1) which can generate clear transcriptomic sub-groups among HBV-infected livers. PCM1 includes genes related to cell cycle activity and liver cancer development. In addition, markers of inflammation, M1 macrophages and gamma delta T cell infiltration are present within the signature. Genes within PCM1 are also able to differentiate HCC from normal liver, and some genes within the signature are associated with poor prognosis of HCC at the mRNA level. The analysis of the immunohistochemical stainings validated that proteins coded by a group of PCM1 genes were overexpressed in liver cancer, while minimal or no expression was detected in normal liver. Altogether, our findings suggest that PCM1 can be developed into a clinically applicable method to identify CHB patients with a higher risk of HCC development.

Association between probiotic therapy and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis

Objective

Probiotics may offer cancer-prevention benefits, based on experimental investigation results. This study aimed to determine the potential association between probiotics and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis (HBC) receiving antiviral therapy.

Design

This retrospective study included 1267 patients with HBC treated with entecavir or tenofovir between January 2013 and December 2017. The risk of developing HCC was compared between two cohorts of 449 probiotic users (taking a cumulative defined daily doses [cDDD] of ≥ 28) and 818 non-probiotic users (< 28 cDDD). To eliminate the bias caused by confounding factors, propensity score matching (PSM) was used.

Results

On multivariate regression analysis, probiotic consumption was an independent protective factor for HCC occurrence. After PSM, the incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the probiotic users than that in the nonusers (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.70, 95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.83, P < 0.001). The aHRs for probiotics with 28-89, 90-180, and >180 cDDD were 0.58, 0.28, and 0.12, respectively, indicating a dose-response pattern. In 28-89, 90-180, and >180 cDDD, the 3-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 8.7%, 4.7%, and 3.0%, respectively. A multivariate stratified analysis confirmed that the administration of probiotics could help patients.

Conclusion

Adjuvant probiotic therapy may reduce the risk of HCC in patients receiving antiviral medication for HBC. However, further clinical research is required to confirm these findings.

Development of a nomogram to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis B-related cirrhosis on antivirals

Objective

Patients with compensated hepatitis B-related cirrhosis receiving antivirals are at the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the incidence of HCC in patients with hepatitis-B related cirrhosis.

Design

A total of 632 patients with compensated hepatitis-B related cirrhosis treated with entecavir or tenofovir between August 2010 and July 2018 were enrolled. Cox regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for HCC and a nomogram was developed using these factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analyses were used to evaluate the nomogram performance. The results were validated in an external cohort (n = 324).

Results

In the multivariate analysis, age per 10 years, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 1.6, and platelet count < 86×10⁹/L were independent predictors of HCC occurrence. A nomogram was developed to predict HCC risk using these three factors (ranging from 0 to 20). The nomogram showed better performance (AUC: 0.83) than that of the established models (all P < 0.05). The 3-year cumulative HCC incidences in the low- (scores < 4), medium- (4-10), and high-risk (> 10) subgroups were 0.7%, 4.3%, and 17.7%, respectively, in the derivation cohort, and 1.2%, 3.9%, and 17.8%, respectively, in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration in estimating HCC risk in patients with hepatitis-B related cirrhosis on antivirals. High-risk patients with a score > 10 points require close surveillance.

What to do about hepatocellular carcinoma: Recommendations for health authorities from the International Liver Cancer Association

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major public health problem worldwide for which the incidence and mortality are similar, pointing to the lack of effective treatment options. Knowing the different issues involved in the management of HCC, from risk factors to screening and management, is essential to improve the prognosis and quality of life of affected individuals. This document summarises the current state of knowledge and the unmet needs for all the different stakeholders in the care of liver cancer, meaning patients, relatives, physicians, regulatory agencies and health authorities so that optimal care can be delivered to patients. The document was commissioned by the International Liver Cancer Association and was reviewed by senior members, including two ex-presidents of the Association. This document lays out the recommended approaches to the societal management of HCC based on the economic status of a given region.

A roadmap for serum biomarkers for hepatitis B virus: current status and future outlook

Globally, 296 million people are infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), and approximately one million people die annually from HBV-related causes, including liver cancer. Although there is a preventative vaccine and antiviral therapies suppressing HBV replication, there is no cure. Intensive efforts are under way to develop curative HBV therapies. Currently, only a few biomarkers are available for monitoring or predicting HBV disease progression and treatment response. As new therapies become available, new biomarkers to monitor viral and host responses are urgently needed. In October 2020, the International Coalition to Eliminate Hepatitis B Virus (ICE-HBV) held a virtual and interactive workshop on HBV biomarkers endorsed by the International HBV Meeting. Various stakeholders from academia, clinical practice and the pharmaceutical industry, with complementary expertise, presented and participated in panel discussions. The clinical utility of both classic and emerging viral and immunological serum biomarkers with respect to the course of infection, disease progression, and response to current and emerging treatments was appraised. The latest advances were discussed, and knowledge gaps in understanding and interpretation of HBV biomarkers were identified. This Roadmap summarizes the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges of HBV biomarkers.

A predictive model of bowel resection for incarcerated inguinal hernia based on the systemic immune-inflammation index

Background and Purpose

An inguinal hernia is a common surgical disease. Once incarcerated or strangulated, it may endanger the life of the patient. Therefore, it is essential to study the risk factors of incarcerated inguinal hernia (IIH) and strangulated inguinal hernia (SIH). One of the serious complications of IIH and SIH is intestinal necrosis, which occurs owing to blood supply disorder. The study explores the risk factors of intestinal resection and establishes a simple model to assess the incidence of intestinal resection to provide significant assistance and limited guidance for clinical work.

Patients and Methods

Our research team collected and retrospectively analysed the clinical data of 338 patients with IIH who were hospitalized in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between September 2008 and December 2016. According to the surgical plan, we divided the included cases into two groups, non-intestinal and intestinal resection groups, and the clinical case characteristics of these groups were statistically analysed.

Results

Based on multivariable logistic regression analysis, we found that increased risk of bowel resection was highly correlated among the elderly (≥70 years), and for people with high temperature (≥37.3°C), high systemic immune-inflammation index(SII) values (≥1230.13), presence of bowel obstruction, and signs of peritonitis. Further, we processed the five independent risk factors using special software to obtain a simple model called a nomogram. To verify the nomogram’s accuracy and predictive ability, we calculate the C-index: 0.806 and use the calibration curve to evaluate its stability and predictive performance. We constructed the ROC curve nomogram and other sub-variables, and calculated the area under the curve (AUC) corresponding to the nomogram (AUC = 0.808, 95% CI = 0.762 to 0.848), SII (AUC = 0.752, 95% CI = 0.703 to 0.797), age (AUC = 0.641, 95% CI = 0.587 to 0.692), temperature (AUC = 0.579, 95% CI = 0.524 to 0.632), bowel obstruction (AUC = 0.685, 95% CI = 0.633 to 0.734), and signs of peritonitis (AUC = 0.580, 95% CI = 0.525 to 0.633).

Conclusion

It can be said that we found for the first time that clinical variables such as SII are independent risk factors for enterectomy for IIH. The nomogram based on SII and other variables can accurately and easily predict the probability of IIH requiring bowel resection.

Arthrospira Enhances Seroclearance in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Nucleos(t)ide Analogue through Modulation of TNF-α/IFN-γ Profile

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) virus infection, causing immune dysfunction and chronic hepatitis, is one of the leading risk factors for hepatocellular cancer. We investigated how Arthrospira affected hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) reduction in CHB patients under continued nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA). Sixty CHB patients who had been receiving NA for at least one year with undetectable HBV DNA were randomized into three groups: control and oral Arthrospira at 3 or 6 g daily add-on therapy groups. Patients were followed up for 6 months. Oral Arthrospira-diet mice were established to investigate the possible immunological mechanism of Arthrospira against HBV. Within 6 months, mean quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg) decreased in the oral Arthrospira add-on therapy group. Interestingly, interferon gamma (IFN-γ) increased but TNF-α, interleukin 6 (IL-6), hepatic fibrosis, and steatosis decreased in the add-on groups. In mice, Arthrospira enhanced both innate and adaptive immune system, especially natural killer (NK) cell cytotoxicity, B cell activation, and the interleukin 2 (IL-2), IFN-γ immune response. Arthrospira may modulate IL-2- and TNF-α/IFN-γ-mediated B and T cell activation to reduce HBsAg. Also, Arthrospira has the potential to restore immune tolerance and enhance HBsAg seroclearance in CHB patients through promoting T, B, and NK cell activation.

Genetic associations in chronic hepatitis B infection: toward developing polygenic risk scores

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection results in multiple clinical phenotypes of varying severity. One of the critical gaps in CHB management is the lack of a genetic-based tool to aid existing hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhosis risk stratification models for patients with active CHB. Such individual predictive models for CHB are plagued by an inherent limitation of discriminatory power that clearly indicates the need for their improvement. In this article, we highlight genetic association studies in CHB that identified HLA and cytokine genetic susceptibility loci to CHB. We advance the position that translating CHB genetic susceptibility loci into polygenic risk scores will be a welcome addendum to the current arsenal of CHB outcome predictive models. We conclude with comments on hurdles that future research efforts should address within the research enclave of CHB and advocate for increased genetic data representation from sub-Saharan Africa.

A simple CD4+ T cells to FIB-4 ratio for evaluating prognosis of BCLC-B hepatocellular carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction

Immunotherapy has become a new therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC); however, its treatment results are considerably different. CD4+ T cells (CD4+) are the key to immunotherapy, but patients with HCC that have low CD4+ are rarely observed for clinical evidence. Hepatitis B virus-related HCC is often accompanied by cirrhosis and portal hypertension; therefore, CD4+ tend to be relatively low in number. TACE is the standard treatment for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC)-B HCC, which may further reduce the number of CD4 + .

Methods

This retrospective cohort study further reduced CD4+ by including patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) to observe the relationship between CD4+ and Chronic hepatitis B virus (CHB) induced HCC. A total of 170 BCLC-B HCC patients (42 HIV+) were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses, and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to evaluate the independent risk factors for the two-year survival.

Results

The statistical analysis of the two-year survival rate showed that the main factors influencing survival were liver function and immune indices, including CD4+, platelet, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) (P < 0.05). Compared with that in other indices, in logistic and ANN multivariate analysis, CD4 + -to-FIB-4 ratio (CD4+/FIB-4) had the highest importance with 0.716 C-statistic and 145.93 cut-off value. In terms of overall survival rate, HIV infection was not a risk factor (P = 0.589); however, CD4+/FIB-4 ≤ 145.93 significantly affected patient prognosis (P = 0.002).

Conclusion

HIV infection does not affect the prognosis of BCLC-B HCC, but CD4+ have a significant predictive value. CD4+ played a vital role in HCC and this deserves the attention from physicians. Further, the CD4+/FIB-4 is a clinically valuable effective prognostic indicator for these patients.

Comparative performance of risk prediction models for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines recommend hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance in patients with chronic HBV infection. Several HCC risk prediction models are available to guide surveillance decisions, but their comparative performance remains unclear.

METHODS

Using a retrospective cohort of patients with HBV treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues at 130 Veterans Administration facilities between 9/1/2008 and 12/31/2018, we calculated risk scores from 10 HCC risk prediction models (REACH-B, PAGE-B, m-PAGE-B, CU-HCC, HCC-RESCUE, CAMD, APA-B, REAL-B, AASL-HCC, RWS-HCC). We estimated the models' discrimination and calibration. We calculated HCC incidence in risk categories defined by the reported cut-offs for all models.

RESULTS

Of 3,101 patients with HBV (32.2% with cirrhosis), 47.0% were treated with entecavir, 40.6% tenofovir, and 12.4% received both. During a median follow-up of 4.5 years, 113 patients developed HCC at an incidence of 0.75/100 person-years. AUC values for 3-year HCC risk were the highest for RWS-HCC, APA-B, REAL-B, and AASL-HCC (all >0.80). Of these, 3 (APA-B, RWS-HCC, REAL-B) incorporated alpha-fetoprotein. AUC values for the other models ranged from 0.73 for PAGE-B to 0.79 for CAMD and HCC-RESCUE. Of the 7 models with AUC >0.75, only APA-B was poorly calibrated. In total, 10-20% of the cohort was deemed low-risk based on the published cut-offs. None of the patients in the low-risk groups defined by PAGE-B, m-PAGE-B, AASL-HCC, and REAL-B developed HCC during the study timeframe.

CONCLUSION

In this national cohort of US-based patients with HBV on antiviral treatment, most models performed well in predicting HCC risk. A low-risk group, in which no cases of HCC occurred within a 3-year timeframe, was identified by several models (PAGE-B, m-PAGE-B, CAMD, AASL-HCC, REAL-B). Further studies are warranted to examine whether these patients could be excluded from HCC surveillance.

LAY SUMMARY

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) could guide HCC surveillance decisions. In this large cohort of US-based patients receiving treatment for HBV, most published models discriminated between those who did or did not develop HCC, although the RWS-HCC, REAL-B, and AASL-HCC performed the best. If confirmed in future studies, these models could help identify a low-risk subset of patients on antiviral treatment who could be excluded from HCC surveillance.

Viral hepatitis in 2021: The challenges remaining and how we should tackle them

Viral hepatitis results in 1.4 million deaths annually. The World Health Organization (WHO) set an ambitious target to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030, but significant challenges remain. These include inequalities in access to healthcare, reaching at risk populations and providing access to screening and effective treatment. Stigma around viral hepatitis persists and must be addressed. The WHO goal of global elimination by 2030 is a worthy aim, but remains ambitious and the coronavirus 2019 pandemic undoubtedly has set back progress. This review article will focus on hepatitis A to E, highlighting problems that have been resolved in the field over the past decade, those that remain to be resolved and suggest directions for future problem solving and research.

Risk of liver cirrhosis in HBV/HCV-infected individuals with first-degree relatives who have liver cancer: development and validation of a simple model

Identification of high-risk population among HBV/HCV-infected individuals with first-degree relatives (FDRs) who have liver cancer is important to implement precise intervention. A cross-sectional study was conducted under the framework of a population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC), aimed to develop and validate a simple non-invasive model that could assess and stratify cirrhosis risk, in HBV/HCV-infected individuals with FDRs who have liver cancer. People who participated in liver cancer screening in Henan province were enrolled. Using the dataset consisting of participants admitted from October 1,2013 to December 31, 2016, a 24-point scale risk score model was developed through logistic regression, based on education background, dietary habit, smoking index, cooking oil fume exposure, history of severe trauma, HBV/HCV infection status, history of diabetes, history of hyperlipidaemia, and parent history of liver cancer. The model showed excellent discrimination with AUROC of 0.875 (95%CI: 0.853-0.896) and fair calibration with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.106. The prevalence rates in the medium- and high-risk groups were 2.87 (95%CI: 1.94-4.25) and 47.57 (95%CI: 31.59-71.63) times of low-risk group, respectively. After internal validation, bias-corrected AUROC was 0.874 (95%CI: 0.873-0.875). In the external validation dataset consisting of participants admitted from January 1,2017 to October 31, 2018, the model had achieved similar discrimination, calibration and risk stratification ability. In conclusion, this risk score model we developed can be a practical tool for the screening and prevention of liver cirrhosis among HBV/HCV-infected individuals with FDRs who have liver cancer.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in hepatitis B and D virus co-infected patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection causes a severe chronic viral hepatitis with accelerated development of liver cirrhosis and decompensation, but whether it further increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. We performed a comprehensive systematic review of the published literature and meta-analysis to assess the risk of HCC in HDV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infected, compared to HBV mono-infected patients. The study was conducted per a priori defined protocol, including only longitudinal studies, thus excluding cross-sectional studies. Random-effects models were used to determine aggregate effect sizes (ES) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Meta-regression was used to examine the associations among study level characteristics. Twelve cohort studies comprising a total of 6099 HBV/HDV co-infected and 57,620 chronic HBV mono-infected patients were analysed. The overall pooled ES showed that HBV/HDV co-infected patients were at 2-fold increased risk of HCC compared to HBV mono-infected patients (ES = 2.12, 95% CI 1.14-3.95, I²  = 72%, N = 12). A six-fold significant increased risk of HCC was noted among HIV/HBV/HDV triple-infected, compared to HIV/HBV co-infected patients. The magnitude of ES did not differ significantly after adjustment for study design and quality, publication year and follow-up duration in univariable meta-regression analysis. This systematic review and meta-analysis shows that infection with HDV is associated with a 2-fold higher risk of HCC development compared to HBV mono-infection. HCC surveillance strategies taking this increased risk into account, and new treatment options against HDV, are warranted.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic viral hepatitis: Is it time to personalize it?

Surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein is recommended by clinical practice guidelines for patients who are considered to be at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including those with cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis and special subgroups of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Application of the standard surveillance strategy to all patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis imposes major sustainability and economic burdens on healthcare systems. Thus, a number of HCC risk scores were constructed, mainly from Asian cohorts, to stratify the HCC prediction in patients with CHB. Similarly, even if less than for CHB, a few scoring systems were developed for chronic hepatitis C patients or cirrhotic patients with CLD of different etiologies. Recently, a few newsworthy HCC-risk algorithms were developed for patients with cirrhosis using the combination of serologic HCC markers and clinical parameters. Overall, the HCC risk stratification appears at hand by several validated multiple score systems, but their optimal performance is obtained only in populations who show highly homogenous clinic-pathologic, epidemiologic, etiologic and therapeutic characteristics and this limitation poses a major drawback to their sustainable use in clinical practice. A better understanding of the dynamic process driving the progression from CLD to HCC derived from studies based on molecular approaches and genetics, epigenetics and liquid biopsy will enable the identification of new biomarkers to define the individual risk of HCC in the near future, with the possibility to achieve a real and cost/effective personalization of surveillance.

Prediction of the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma in health screening examinees: a Korean cohort study

Background

Almost all Koreans are covered by mandatory national health insurance and are required to undergo health screening at least once every 2 years. We aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on the screening results and insurance claim data.

Methods

The National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening database was used for this study (NHIS-2020-2-146). Our study cohort consisted of 417,346 health screening examinees between 2004 and 2007 without cancer history, which was split into training and test cohorts by the examination date, before or after 2005. Robust predictors were selected using Cox proportional hazard regression with 1000 different bootstrapped datasets. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting algorithms were used to develop a prediction model for the 9-year risk of HCC development after screening. After optimizing a prediction model via cross validation in the training cohort, the model was validated in the test cohort.

Results

Of the total examinees, 0.5% (1799/331,694) and 0.4% (390/85,652) in the training cohort and the test cohort were diagnosed with HCC, respectively. Of the selected predictors, older age, male sex, obesity, abnormal liver function tests, the family history of chronic liver disease, and underlying chronic liver disease, chronic hepatitis virus or human immunodeficiency virus infection, and diabetes mellitus were associated with increased risk, whereas higher income, elevated total cholesterol, and underlying dyslipidemia or schizophrenic/delusional disorders were associated with decreased risk of HCC development (p < 0.001). In the test, our model showed good discrimination and calibration. The C-index, AUC, and Brier skill score were 0.857, 0.873, and 0.078, respectively.

Conclusions

Machine learning-based model could be used to predict the risk of HCC development based on the health screening examination results and claim data.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08498-w.

Prediction and clinical utility of a liver cancer risk model in Chinese adults: A prospective cohort study of 0.5 million people

China has made rapid progress in reducing the incidence of HBV infection in the past three decades, along with a rapidly changing lifestyle and aging population. We aimed to develop and validate an up-to-date liver cancer risk prediction model with routinely available predictors and evaluate its applicability for screening guidance. Using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, we included 486 285 participants in this analysis. Fifteen risk factors were included in the model. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate the 10-year absolute risk of liver cancer. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of the model to quantify clinical utility. A total of 2706 participants occurred liver cancer over the 4 814 320 person-years of follow-up. Excellent discrimination of the model was observed in both development and validation datasets, with c-statistics (95% CI) of 0.80 (0.79-0.81) and 0.80 (0.78-0.82) respectively, as well as excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. Decision curve analysis revealed that use of the model in selecting participants for screening improved benefit at a threshold of 2% 10-year risk, compared to current guideline of screening all HBsAg carriers. Our model was more sensitive than current guideline for cancer screening (28.17% vs 25.96%). We developed and validated a CKB-PLR (Prediction for Liver cancer Risk Based on the China Kadoorie Biobank Study) model to predict the absolute risk of liver cancer for both HBsAg seropositive and seronegative populations. Application of the model is beneficial for precisely identifying the high-risk groups among the general population.

Noninvasive Assessment of Hepatitis C Virus Infected Patients Using Vibration-Controlled Transient Elastography

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading causes of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Surveillance of these patients is an essential strategy in the prevention chain, including in the pre/post-antiviral treatment states. Ultrasound elastography techniques are emerging as key methods in the assessment of liver diseases, with a number of advantages such as their rapid, noninvasive, and cost-effective characters. The present paper critically reviews the performance of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in the assessment of HCV patients. VCTE measures liver stiffness (LS) and the ultrasonic attenuation through the embedded controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), providing the clinician with a tool for assessing fibrosis, cirrhosis, and steatosis in a noninvasive manner. Moreover, standardized LS values enable proper staging of the underlying fibrosis, leading to an accurate identification of a subset of HCV patients that present a high risk for complications. In addition, VCTE is a valuable technique in evaluating liver fibrosis prior to HCV therapy. However, its applicability in monitoring fibrosis regression after HCV eradication is currently limited and further studies should focus on extending the boundaries of VCTE in this context. From a different perspective, VCTE may be effective in identifying clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). An emerging prospect of clinical significance that warrants further study is the identification of esophageal varices. Our opinion is that the advantages of VCTE currently outweigh those of other surveillance methods.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Liver Cirrhosis Prediction in Untreated and Treated Chronic Hepatitis B

BACKGROUND

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis, but there are limited noninvasive tools available to estimate cirrhosis risk, including in patients receiving antiviral therapy. This study developed and validated a simple model to assess risk in CHB patients.

METHODS

The derivation cohort included 3000 CHB patients from 6 centers in the United States, with 52.60% receiving antiviral therapy. External validation was performed for 4552 CHB individuals from similar cohorts in Taiwan, with 21.27% receiving therapy. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen predictors and develop the risk score for cirrhosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated for predictive value.

RESULTS

Sex, age, diabetes, antiviral treatment status/duration, hepatitis B e-antigen, and baseline alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase levels were significantly associated with increased cirrhosis risk. A 13-point risk score was developed based on these predictors. The AUROCs for predicting cirrhosis risk were 0.82 at 3 years, 0.85 at 5 years, and 0.89 at 10 years in the derivation cohort, and 0.82, 0.79, and 0.77 in the validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a simple cirrhosis prediction model with an independent external cohort that can be applied to both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced CHB patients in diverse settings and locations.

Prediction models for development of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health problem in Asian-Pacific regions. Antiviral therapy reduces, but does not completely prevent, HCC development. Thus, there is a need for accurate risk prediction to assist prognostication and decisions on the need for antiviral therapy and HCC surveillance. A few risk scores have been developed to predict the occurrence of HCC in CHB patients. Initially, the scores were derived from untreated CHB patients. With the development and extensive clinical application of nucleos(t)ide analog(s) (NA), the number of risk scores based on treated CHB patients has increased gradually. The components included in risk scores may be categorized into host factors and hepatitis B virus factors. Hepatitis activities, hepatitis B virus factors, and even liver fibrosis or cirrhosis are relatively controlled by antiviral therapy. Therefore, variables that are more dynamic during antiviral therapy have since been included in risk scores. However, host factors are more difficult to modify. Most existing scores derived from Asian populations have been confirmed to be accurate in predicting HCC development in CHB patients from Asia, while these scores have not offered excellent predictability in Caucasian patients. These findings support that more relevant variables should be considered to provide individualized predictions that are easily applied to CHB patients of different ethnicities. CHB patients should receive different intensities of HCC surveillance according to their risk category.

Comparable Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated with Entecavir or Tenofovir

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Adherence to medication and maintained virologic response (MVR) are related to the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to compare the efficacy of entecavir (ETV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) in relation to the adverse clinical outcomes among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients stratified according to adherence to medication and MVR.

METHODS

A total of 1794 treatment-naive CHB patients treated with ETV (n = 894) or TDF (n = 900) for > 1 year were identified.

RESULTS

Adherence rates were significantly higher in the TDF than in the ETV (93.4% vs. 89.1%, respectively; P < 0.001). The MVR of ETV and TDF were 64.5% and 71.7%, respectively (P = 0.001). The MVR of ETV and TDF in the good adherence group were 72.1% and 76.4%, respectively (P = 0.083); in the poor adherence group, the MVR of ETV and TDF were 63.0% and 54.0%, respectively (P = 0.384) Multivariate analysis showed that the risk of HCC and death or transplantation was similar between groups (HR 0.826, 95% CI 0.522-1.306; P = 0.413 and HR 0.636, 95% CI 0.258-1.569; P = 0.325, respectively) after adjusting for adherence to medication and MVR. In the 589 propensity-matched pairs of patients, risk of HCC and death or transplantation was similar between treatment groups after stratification according to adherence rates and MVR.

CONCLUSIONS

After adjustment for adherence and MVR, ETV, and TDF did not differ in terms of the risk of HCC and death or transplantation in all patients and propensity score-matched cohorts.

Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen: From Virology to Clinical Application

Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a composite measure of the serum levels of hepatitis B e antigen, hepatitis B core antigen, and a 22-kDa precore protein. It has been shown to reflect the level and transcriptional activity of covalently closed circular DNA in the liver. Longitudinal cohort studies have improved our understanding of the role of this novel viral marker in the natural history of chronic hepatitis B. HBcrAg kinetics reflect the response to peginterferon, and its role in defining guidelines for stopping peginterferon therapy has been evaluated. HBcrAg is a marker of intrahepatic viral activity, which may influence the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. In this article, we review the virology and role of HBcrAg in defining phases of chronic hepatitis B. Furthermore, the function of HBcrAg in predicting treatment outcomes and its role in monitoring response to novel antiviral agents will be discussed.

Clinical Value Evaluation of microRNA-324-3p and Other Available Biomarkers in Patients With HBV Infection-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are at high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to evaluate the expression of microRNA-324-3p (miR-324-3p) in HBV-related HCC and explore the clinical significance of serum miR-324-3p and other available biomarkers in the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-related HCC.

Methods

Expression of miR-324-3p in HBV infection–related cells and patients was estimated using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of serum miR-324-3p, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and protein induced by vitamin K absence/antagonist II (PIVKA-II) in the differentiation of HBV-related HCC from healthy controls and chronic hepatitis B patients (CHB). The relationship between serum miR-324-3p and patients’ clinical features was assessed using the chi-square test, and the value of miR-324-3p to predict overall survival prognosis was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox regression assay in patients with HBV-related HCC.

Results

HBV-related HCC cells had significantly increased miR-324-3p compared with normal and HBV-unrelated HCC cells, and serum miR-324-3p in HCC patients with HBV infection was also higher than that in healthy controls and CHB. Serum miR-324-3p had relatively high diagnostic accuracy for the screening of HCC cases with HBV infection, and the combination of miR-324-3p, AFP, and PIVKA-II showed improved diagnostic performance. Additionally, high-serum miR-324-2p in HBV-related HCC patients was associated with cirrhosis, tumor size, clinical stage, and poor overall survival prognosis.

Conclusions

High-serum miR-324-3p may be involved in the progression of HBV-related hepatitis to HCC and may serve as a candidate biomarker for the diagnosis and prognosis of HBV-related HCC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Step Forward for Better Evaluation Using Ultrasound Elastography

Simple Summary

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) attracts a lot of attention, due to the increasing prevalence and progression to fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Consequently, new non-invasive, cost-effective diagnostic methods are needed. This review aims to explore the diagnostic performance of ultrasound (US) elastography in NAFLD and NAFLD-related HCC, adding a new dimension to the conventional US examination—the liver stiffness quantification. The vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE), and 2D-Shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) are effective in staging liver fibrosis in NAFLD. VCTE presents the upside of assessing steatosis through the controlled attenuation parameter. Hereby, we critically reviewed the elastography techniques for the quantitative characterization of focal liver lesions (FLLs), focusing on HCC: Point shear wave elastography and 2D-SWE. 2D-SWE presents a great potential to differentiate malignant from benign FLLs, guiding the clinician towards the next diagnostic steps. As a disease-specific surveillance tool, US elastography presents prognostic capability, improving the NAFLD-related HCC monitoring.

Abstract

The increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in the general population prompts for a quick response from physicians. As NAFLD can progress to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and even hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), new non-invasive, rapid, cost-effective diagnostic methods are needed. In this review, we explore the diagnostic performance of ultrasound elastography for non-invasive assessment of NAFLD and NAFLD-related HCC. Elastography provides a new dimension to the conventional ultrasound examination, by adding the liver stiffness quantification in the diagnostic algorithm. Whilst the most efficient elastographic techniques in staging liver fibrosis in NAFLD are vibration controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and 2D-Shear wave elastography (2D-SWE), VCTE presents the upside of assessing steatosis through the controlled attenuation parameter (CAP). Hereby, we have also critically reviewed the most important elastographic techniques for the quantitative characterization of focal liver lesions (FLLs), focusing on HCC: Point shear wave elastography (pSWE) and 2D-SWE. As our paper shows, elastography should not be considered as a substitute for FLL biopsy because of the stiffness values overlap. Furthermore, by using non-invasive, disease-specific surveillance tools, such as US elastography, a subset of the non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients at risk for developing HCC can be detected early, leading to a better outcome. A recent ultrasomics study exemplified the wide potential of 2D-SWE to differentiate benign FLLs from malignant ones, guiding the clinician towards the next steps of diagnosis and contributing to better long-term disease surveillance.

Astragaloside IV suppresses development of hepatocellular carcinoma by regulating miR-150-5p/β-catenin axis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), a common malignant tumor, has been regarded as a leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally. Astragaloside IV (AS-IV) was reported to participate in the regulation of multiple tumors. However, the role of AS-IV in HCC was still unclear in HCC. Bioinformatics analysis and function or mechanism experiments including RT-qPCR, MTT assay, flow cytometry, Western blot, luciferase reporter assay and xenografts assays were applied to investigate the function of AS-IV, miR-150-5p and CTNNB1. We discovered that AS-IV treatment was supposed to significantly increase miR-150-5p level. In addition, AS-IV accelerated cell apoptosis by inducing miR-150-5p in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, AS-IV increased cell apoptosis rate through reducing β-catenin level in vitro and in vivo. In detail, AS-IV triggered a decline of Bax and a rise of Bcl-2 in HCC cells and xenograft tissues. In mechanism, we validated the combination between miR-150-5p and CTNNB1. Moreover, miR-150-5p could negatively regulate CTNNB1 level by binding to its3'UTR. Finally, rescue assay demonstrated that CTNNB1 overexpression partially rescued the inhibitive effect on tumor growth and promotive influence on cell apoptosis caused by miR-150-5p amplification. The up-regulation of miR-150-5p induced by AS-IV suppressed the progression of HCC by repressing β-catenin, providing a new molecular target for the utilization of AS-IV In the treatment of HCC.

Prolyl Isomerase Pin1 Regulates the Stability of Hepatitis B Virus Core Protein

The dynamic interplay between virus and host proteins is critical for establishing efficient viral replication and virus-induced pathogenesis. Phosphorylation-dependent prolyl isomerization by Pin1 provides a unique mechanism of molecular switching to control both protein function and stability. We demonstrate here that Pin1 binds and stabilizes hepatitis B virus core protein (HBc) in a phosphorylation-dependent manner, and promotes the efficient viral propagation. Phos-tag gel electrophoresis with various site-directed mutants of HBc revealed that Thr160 and Ser162 residues within the C terminal arginine-rich domain are phosphorylated concomitantly. GST pull-down assay and co-immunoprecipitation analysis demonstrated that Pin1 associated with phosphorylated HBc at the Thr160-Pro and Ser162-Pro motifs. Chemical or genetic inhibition of Pin1 significantly accelerated the rapid degradation of HBc via a lysosome-dependent pathway. Furthermore, we found that the pyruvate dehydrogenase phosphatase catalytic subunit 2 (PDP2) could dephosphorylate HBc at the Pin1-binding sites, thereby suppressing Pin1-mediated HBc stabilization. Our findings reveal an important regulatory mechanism of HBc stability catalyzed by Pin1 and may facilitate the development of new antiviral therapeutics targeting Pin1 function.

Current perspectives into the evaluation and management of hepatitis B: a review

Hepatitis B is a widespread disease which affects millions of people worldwide. Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can lead to significant morbidity and mortality due to complications such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The pathophysiology of hepatitis is critical to diagnosing CHB. Deciding which patients with CHB should be treated is an important decision as treatment can often lead to better outcomes in the appropriate patient population. The nucleos(t)ide analog inhibitors entecavir and tenofovir are currently the mainstay of treatment as they are able to successfully suppress the virus and lead to fewer complications. Novel therapies are currently being developed which may offer a potential cure for this disease in the future.

Risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma development for indeterminate hepatic nodules in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background/Aims

A risk prediction model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from indeterminate nodules detected on computed tomography (CT) (Rad_CT score) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related cirrhosis was proposed. We validated this model for indeterminate nodules on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

Methods

Between 2013 and 2016, Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) 2/3 nodules on MRI were detected in 99 patients with CHB. The Rad_CT score was calculated.

Results

The median age of the 72 male and 27 female subjects was 58 years. HCC history and liver cirrhosis were found in 47 (47.5%) and 44 (44.4%) patients, respectively. The median Rad_CT score was 112. The patients with HCC (n=41, 41.4%) showed significantly higher Rad_CT scores than those without (median, 119 vs. 107; P=0.013); the Chinese university-HCC and risk estimation for HCC in CHB (REACH-B) scores were similar (both P>0.05). Arterial enhancement, T2 hyperintensity, and diffusion restriction on MRI were not significantly different in the univariate analysis (all P>0.05); only the Rad_CT score significantly predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR]=1.018; P=0.007). Multivariate analysis showed HCC history was the only independent HCC predictor (HR=2.374; P=0.012). When the subjects were stratified into three risk groups based on the Rad_CT score (<60, 60–105, and >105), the cumulative HCC incidence was not significantly different among them (all P>0.05, log-rank test).

Conclusions

HCC history, but not Rad_CT score, predicted CHB-related HCC development from LI-RADS 2/3 nodules. New risk models optimized for MRI-defined indeterminate nodules are required.

RNA protein kinase SNP at -226 C<T is a biomarker for the clearance of HCV among Egyptian patients

BACKGROUND

RNA-dependant protein kinase R (PKR) is a primary mediator in the defence mechanism of interferon against viral replication and pathogenesis during Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. In the present study, we have examined the role of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) in the promoter region of PKR and the serum level of the same protein on the outcome of HCV-infected Egyptian patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Genomic DNA was extracted from a total of 135 subjects, including 15 healthy controls, 40 HCV spontaneous resolvers (SRs), and 80 patients with chronic HCV infection. PKR genotyping was assessed using DNA sequencing. Finally, serum levels of PKR, TNF-α, INF-γ, and IL-10 were measured using ELISA technique.

RESULTS

Serum levels of PKR, TNF-α, and INF-γ showed a significant increase in SRs as compared to chronic HCV patients. On the other hand, serum levels of IL-10 were significantly higher in chronic HCV patients compared to SRs. The present study demonstrated two novel SNPs in the PKR promoter region: at -226 C/T and -141 C/G. The PKR SNP at -226 C < T correlated with HCV-infected patients (genotype 4a) outcome among Egyptians. Our data showed the unique presence of the TT genotype in SRs group (three patients: 7.5%) in PKR -226 C/T. Interestingly, subjects with the TT genotype were more likely to clear their HCV infection than those with the CC genotype.

CONCLUSION

Our work provides more detail about PKR gene polymorphism in HCV genotype 4a as a new clinical tool for anticipating HCV-4a infection outcome.

Decreased liver stiffness by transient elastography indicates lower incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

The prognositc value of dynamic liver stiffness (LS) variation on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains to be explored. We aim to compare HCC incidence in patients with compensated CHB-related cirrhosis with increased and decreased LS after nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) regimens.A total of 168 patients with CHB-related compensated cirrhosis were divided into groups according to LS variation post to NA treatment. The laboratory results of 2 groups were reviewed and investigated. The probability of HCC development among each group was analyzed and compared.A total of 168 patients with CHB with compensated cirrhosis received NA treatment and Fibroscan. Child-Pugh score, alanine aminotransferase, total bilirubin level, status of hepatitis B e antigen, and serum hepatitis B virus DNA level were compared between groups. The cumulative probability of HCC development in patients with decreased LS was significantly lower than in patients with increased LS (P < .05). Multi-variant analysis indicated that decreased LS was significantly associated with lower probability of HCC development (hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval range, 0.33-0.84, P < .05).Decreased LS after NA treatment indicates a lower HCC incidence in patients with CHB with compensated cirrhosis.

High percentage atypical hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs

Nucleos(t)ide analogs are used for preventing liver cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B patients, but the risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in these patients remain unclear. We designed this retrospective cohort study, the aim is to determine the risk factors for HCC development and its image presentation under nucleos(t)ide analogs treatment.In this study, patients were treated with lamivudine (LAM), entecavir 0.5 mg (ETV), or telbivudine (LdT), and followed-up for at least 2 years to detect HCC and its presentation. Assessment of the risk factors for HCC included age, sex, HBeAg, viral load, liver cirrhosis, current and previous medications, and liver function tests.Totally, 396 patients were recruited, and 18 patients developed HCC. The mean time from the treatment to HCC development was 28.5 ± 16.7 months. The clinical characteristics in HCC and no-HCC groups showed significant differences among age (52.8 ± 6.1 vs 47.1 ± 12.6 years, P <.01), baseline alanine transaminase (ALT) levels (161.4 ± 177.3 vs 361.7 ± 496.3, P <.01), and baseline liver cirrhosis (72.2% vs 29.9%, P <.01). In patients aged ≥45 years, the hazard ratio of HCC was 10.2 and liver cirrhosis was 4.1. Majority of HCCs developed in the right liver (14/18), were single numbered (13/18), had tumor size about 1.9 ± 0.7 cm, were classified as T1 (14/18, TNM staging), and the atypical image occupied 88% of the HCC cases.The patients aged ≧45 years on long-term nucleos(t)ide analog therapy, and with baseline liver cirrhosis were at a high risk of HCC. Regular alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) assessment and image study of these patients are the gold standards for early HCC detection in patients with high percentage atypical HCC appearances.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients with low hepatitis B surface antigen and high hepatitis B core-related antigen titers have a high risk of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

Although the viral markers hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HbcrAg) could reflect intrahepatic hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication activity and constitute important biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the value of using these two markers in combination for assessing HCC risk has not been clarified in detail.

METHODS

Four hundred and forty-nine consecutive patients with chronic HBV infection were included in the study and the association of HBsAg and HBcrAg with HCC risk was investigated cross-sectionally, as well as longitudinally.

RESULTS

When the high value cut-offs of HBsAg and HBcrAg were defined as 3.0 log IU/mL and 3.0 log U/mL, respectively, patients with a history of HCC were found frequently in the low HBsAg group (P = 0.002) and high HBcrAg group (P < 0.001). When HBsAg and HBcrAg were combined, an HCC history was most frequent in the subset with low HBsAg and high HBcrAg, among the HBeAg-negative patients (odds ratio [OR], 7.83; P < 0.001), irrespective of nucleos(t) ide analogue (NA) therapy (NA: OR, 4.76; P < 0.001; non-NA: OR, 9.60; P < 0.001). In a longitudinal analysis of the subsequent development of HCC, carried out on the 338 patients without an HCC history at enrollment, HCC developed significantly more frequently in the low HBsAg/high HBcrAg group (P = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with low HBsAg/high HBcrAg values are at high risk of developing HBV-related HCC, according to this cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, indicating that the combination of HBsAg and HBcrAg values is an excellent biomarker for assessing HCC risk.

Influence of antiviral therapy on the liver stiffness in chronic HBV hepatitis

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of antiviral therapy on liver stiffness measurement (LSM).

METHODS

Two hundred HBV patients were enrolled from four hospital centers in southern Italy; median age was 50.7 (25-75) males were 68%; 171 patients underwent to liver biopsy and 200 patients had LSM at baseline and 189 at the end of follow-up. One hundred and forty-nine patients were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs, while 51 patients were untreated. The cutoffs of the LSM, related to the fibrosis stages, were as follows: non-advanced fibrosis ≤ 8.1 kPa and advanced fibrosis ≥ 8.2 Kpa.

RESULTS

At baseline, the median value of LSM was 14.1 kPa for advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis and 6.9 kPa for non-advanced fibrosis. LSM was performed at 24 months from the start of therapy. The treated patients (68% received Entecavir and 32% Tenofovir) showed a decrease in liver stiffness measurement of 1.5 kPa (p < 0.001) in non-advanced fibrosis and of 6 kPa (p < 0.001) in advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. In the patients not undergoing antiviral treatment, no statistically significant change of the LSM was observed (p = 0.26). A logistic binary regression model showed that the only independent factor associated with a significant change in the LSM was the liver stiffness value at baseline (odd ratio 2.855; 95% CI 1.456-5.788; (p = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

Long-term antiviral therapy induced a significant reduction of liver stiffness measurement and this result may be related to the reduction of liver fibrosis.

Unmet Needs in Clinical and Basic Hepatitis B Virus Research

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has become a treatable and controllable disease. The current nucleos(t)ide analogue (NUC) and pegylated interferon therapies effectively help slow disease progression and reduce the risk of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and CHB-associated mortality. Long-term viral suppression is easily achievable by NUC therapy, with limited adverse reactions. However, several unmet requirements still exist, including safety and risk-stratified HCC surveillance among patients who received long-term NUC therapy. Criteria for determining which patients should receive finite-duration NUC therapy and which should receive combination therapy with both NUC and pegylated interferon remain unsettled. The management of hepatitis B virus (HBV) e antigen-positive viremic patients with normal liver function and the incorporation of new biomarkers to help manage CHB require further exploration. To achieve functional cure (ie, HBV surface antigen seroclearance) and complete cure (ie, eradication of covalently closed circular DNA) of CHB, several challenges in basic research must be addressed, including the development of an efficient cell culture system and animal models for HBV investigation, development of treatment to eradicate covalently closed circular HBV DNA, and development of immunotherapy for CHB. This brief review focuses on unmet needs in both clinical and basic HBV research.

Validation of risk prediction models for the development of HBV-related HCC: a retrospective multi-center 10-year follow-up cohort study

Recently, modified REACH-B (mREACH-B) risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was proposed. We validated the accuracy of the mREACH-B model and compared its accuracy with those of other prediction models. Between 2006 and 2012, 1,241 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were recruited. All patients underwent transient elastography at enrollment. The median age of the study population (840 males, 401 females) was 49 years. The median PAGE-B, LSM-HCC, and mREACH-B values were 10, 10, and 8, respectively. Among patients without cirrhosis (n = 940, 75.7%), the median REACH-B value was 9. During the follow-up period (median 77.4 months), 66 (5.3%) and 83 (6.7%) patients developed HCC and liver-related events (LRE), respectively. Higher liver stiffness (LS) independently predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.047) and LRE development (HR = 1.047) (all P < 0.05). The mREACH-B significantly predicted HCC (AUC = 0.824 at 3-year and 0.750 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.782 at 3-year and 0.739 at 5-year) (all P < 0.001) and it performed similarly or significantly better than the PAGE-B and LSM-HCC (AUC = 0.715-0.809 at 3-year and 0.719-0.742 at 5-year for HCC; AUC = 0.704-0.777 at 3-year and 0.721-0.735 at 5-year for LRE). Among patients without cirrhosis, mREACH-B predicted HCC (AUC = 0.803 vs. 0.654-0.816 at 3-year and 0.684 vs. 0.639-0.738 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.734 vs. 0.619-0.789 at 3-year and 0.674 vs. 0.626-0.729 at 5-year) similarly to PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC. mREACH-B appropriately predicted HCC and LRE development in patients with CHB and showed similar or superior accuracy to those of PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC.

PRMT5: A novel regulator of Hepatitis B virus replication and an arginine methylase of HBV core

In mammals, protein arginine methyltransferase 5, PRMT5, is the main type II enzyme responsible for the majority of symmetric dimethylarginine formation in polypeptides. Recent study reported that PRMT5 restricts Hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication through epigenetic repression of HBV DNA transcription and interference with encapsidation of pregenomic RNA. Here we demonstrate that PRMT5 interacts with the HBV core (HBc) protein and dimethylates arginine residues within the arginine-rich domain (ARD) of the carboxyl-terminus. ARD consists of four arginine rich subdomains, ARDI, ARDII, ARDIII and ARDIV. Mutation analysis of ARDs revealed that arginine methylation of HBc required the wild-type status of both ARDI and ARDII. Mass spectrometry analysis of HBc identified multiple potential ubiquitination, methylation and phosphorylation sites, out of which lysine K7 and arginines R150 (within ARDI) and R156 (outside ARDs) were shown to be modified by ubiquitination and methylation, respectively. The HBc symmetric dimethylation appeared to be linked to serine phosphorylation and nuclear import of HBc protein. Conversely, the monomethylated HBc retained in the cytoplasm. Thus, overexpression of PRMT5 led to increased nuclear accumulation of HBc, and vice versa, down-regulation of PRMT5 resulted in reduced levels of HBc in nuclei of transfected cells. In summary, we identified PRMT5 as a potent controller of HBc cell trafficking and function and described two novel types of HBc post-translational modifications (PTMs), arginine methylation and ubiquitination.

Current clinical evidence for nucleos(t)ide analogues in patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of death globally and is frequently seen following Hepatitis B virus (HBV) or Hepatitis C virus infection. Areas with high HBV infection rates, such as Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, are therefore also high-risk areas for HCC. Areas covered: This review identifies and discusses the current evidence from robust clinical trials which have investigated the benefits of Nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) antiviral therapy in HBV-related HCC patients, including HCC patients that underwent liver transplantation and HCC patients with or without curative treatment. In addition, we assess how this evidence has influenced current clinical practice, with a particular focus on those areas of high HBV infection rates. Expert commentary: A number of studies have assessed whether NA antiviral treatment can improve the prognosis of HBV-related HCC patients. In this review we evaluate the current evidence, including that from trials in Asia, for antiviral NA treatments in HBV-related HCC patients. We also focus on those NAs with a high genetic barrier to resistance (i.e. ETV or TDF), on different therapeutic approaches, and on the future evidence that is required in this field.

Study on the value of serum miR-106b for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

To analyze the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a population that underwent health checkups and had high serum miR-106b levels.

METHODS

A total of 335 subjects who underwent checkups in the Digestive and Liver Disease Department of our hospital were randomly selected. RT-PCR was used to detect the level of miR-106b in serum samples. Laboratory and imaging examinations were carried out to confirm the HCC diagnosis in patients who had a > 2-fold change in miR-106b levels. Ultrasound-guided biopsy was also used for HCC diagnosis when necessary. On this basis, the clinical data of these subjects, including history of hepatitis virus infection, obesity, long-term history of alcohol use and stage of HCC, were collected. Then, the impact of these factors on the level of miR-106b in serum was analyzed. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of miR-106b for HCC.

RESULTS

A total of 35 subjects had abnormal serum miR-106b levels, of which 20 subjects were diagnosed with HCC. t-test revealed that the difference in serum miR-106b level in terms of sex, age, history of hepatitis virus infection, obesity and long-term history of alcohol use was not statistically significant. However, serum miR-106b levels in patients with advanced HCC (stage III/IV) was higher than in patients with early HCC (stage I/II), and the difference was statistically significant (P = 0.000). Moreover, the ROC curve revealed that the area under the curve value for miR-106b was 0.885, which shows that serum miR-106b level has a certain clinical value for HCC diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The random sampling survey shows that serum miR-106b level is a valuable diagnostic marker for HCC. However, the diagnostic threshold value needs to be further researched.

Immune Tolerant Chronic Hepatitis B: The Unrecognized Risks

Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) progresses through multiple phases, including immune tolerant, immune active, immune control, and, in a subset of patients who achieve immune control, reactivation. The first, the immune tolerant phase, is considered to be prolonged in duration but essentially benign in nature, lacking long-term consequences, and thus not recommended for antiviral therapy. This review challenges the notion that the immune tolerant phase is truly benign and considers the possibility that events during this phase may contribute significantly to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and the premature death of 25% of HBV carriers worldwide. Thus, earlier treatment than recommended by current guidelines should be considered. Low therapeutic coverage exacerbated by restrictive treatment guidelines may facilitate disease progression in many patients but also increase the risk of neonatal and horizontal transmission from untreated mothers to their children. While a prophylactic vaccine exists, there are many areas worldwide where the treatment of adults and the delivery of an effective vaccination course to newborns present difficult challenges.