Variabilities in Weight and Waist Circumference and Risk of Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, and Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Association of body mass index and blood pressure variability with 10-year mortality and renal disease progression in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Variability in biological parameters may be associated with adverse outcomes. The aim of the study was to determine whether variability in body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure is associated with all-cause, cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality or with renal disease progression in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The diabetes database was accessed, and all the information on patient visits (consultations) carried out in the study period (1 January 2008-31 December 2019) was extracted and linked to the laboratory database and the mortality register.

RESULTS

The total number of patients included in the study population was 26,261, of whom 54.4% were male. Median (interquartile range, IQR) age was 60.2 (51.8-68.3) years. The coefficient of variability of BMI was independently associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular, but not cancer, mortality. Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) was associated with increased all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality as well as with renal progression. Variability in systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse pressure was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in bivariate, but not in multivariate, analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in BMI was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular, but not cancer, mortality in a large real-world contemporary population. Our results also confirm the association of HbA1c with increased all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality as well as with renal progression.

Gender differences in midlife to later-life cumulative burden and variability of obesity measures and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Previous studies have reported the gender-specific association between general and central obesity measures, using snapshot assessments, and mortality events. This study seeks to further explore this link by examining how the longitudinal cumulative burden and variability of obesity measures from midlife to later-life impact mortality events in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study population, specifically in relation to gender differences.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Using data from the ARIC study, a total of 7615 (4360 women) participants free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and early mortality events were included in the data analysis. Longitudinal cumulative burden (estimated by the area under the curve (AUC) using a quadratic mixed-effects method) and variability (calculated according to average successive variability (ASV)) were considered as exposures, separately and all together. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted standardized hazard ratios.

RESULTS

The mean age was 62.4 and the median follow-up was 16.9 years. In men, AUCs of waist-related obesity measures, and also ASVs of all obesity measures were associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. In women, waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio AUCs were associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. Regarding cardiovascular mortality, all adiposity measures ASVs in both genders and waist-related obesity measures AUCs in men were associated with increased risk. Significant gender differences were found for the associations between cumulative and variability of waist-to-hip ratio for all-cause mortality and all adiposity measures ASVs for cardiovascular mortality risk with higher impact among men.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative burden and variability in general and central obesity measures were associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities among men. In women, general obesity measures variability, as well as cumulative and variability of central adiposity measure, increased all-cause mortality risk.

Weight cycling and risk of clinical adverse events in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: a post-hoc analysis of TOPCAT

Background

Previous studies hardly evaluated the association of variability of body mass index (BMI) or waist circumference with clinical adverse events and investigated whether weight cycling had an effect on the prognosis of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

Methods

This study was a post-hoc analysis of TOPCAT. Three outcomes were evaluated: the primary endpoint, cardiovascular disease (CVD) death, and heart failure hospitalization. Among them, CVD death and hospitalization were outcomes of heart failure. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to describe the cumulative risk of outcome and were tested using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95%CIs for outcomes. We also performed a subgroup analysis, and several subgroups were compared.

Results

A total of 3,146 patients were included. In the Kaplan-Meier curves, the coefficients of variation of both BMI and waist circumference were grouped according to quartiles, with the Q4 group having the highest cumulative risk (log-rank P < 0.001). In the coefficient of BMI variation and the outcomes, the HRs for group Q4 of coefficient of variation of BMI were 2.35 (95%CI: 1.82, 3.03) for the primary endpoint, 2.40 (95%CI: 1.69, 3.40) for death, and 2.33 (95%CI: 1.68, 3.22) for HF hospitalization in model 3 (fully adjusted model) compared with group Q1. In the coefficient of waist circumference variation and the outcomes, group Q4 had increased hazard of the primary endpoint [HR: 2.39 (95%CI: 1.84, 3.12)], CVD death [HR: 3.29 (95%CI: 2.28, 4.77)], and HF hospitalization [HR: 1.98 (95%CI 1.43, 2.75)] in model 3 (fully adjusted model) compared with group Q1. In the subgroup analysis, there was a significant interaction in the diabetes mellitus subgroup (P for interaction = 0.0234).

Conclusion

Weight cycling had a negative effect on the prognosis of patients with HFpEF. The presence of comorbid diabetes weakened the relationship between waist circumference variability and clinical adverse events.

Association between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and High-Risk Features in Myocardial Perfusion Imaging: A Multicenter Study

Background

Myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is a noninvasive method with acceptable sensitivity and specificity in diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD) in moderate-risk patients, including those with CAD risk factors.

Methods

The present cross-sectional, prospective study was conducted on 4886 patients from April 2020 through March 2023 at Chamran and Tehran Heart Center hospitals. A questionnaire regarding anthropometric variables, demographic characteristics, CAD risk factors, and MPI findings was designed.

Results

Totally, 2179 patients (44.6%) had abnormal MPI. Patients with abnormal MPI were significantly older than those with normal MPI. Older age (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.2 to 1.72; P<0.001), diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.48; P=0.012), hypertension (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.37; P=0.032), and dyslipidemia (OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.25 to 1.8; P<0.001) were associated with abnormal MPI independently. Patients with more CAD risk factors were more likely to have abnormal MPI. Thus, in patients without or at most with 1 risk factor and those with 8 CAD risk factors, the likelihood of abnormal MPI was 3.7% and 76.2%, respectively. The frequency of left ventricular dilation and right ventricular prominence was significantly higher in patients with older age (P<0.001 and P=0.043, respectively), dyslipidemia (P<0.001 and P=0.007, respectively), DM (P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively), and hypertension (P=0.048 and P=0.057, respectively).

Conclusion

Individuals with CAD risk factors, especially those with older age, DM, hypertension, or dyslipidemia, require meticulous attention during CAD evaluation, particularly via MPI.

Family history, waist circumference and risk of ischemic stroke: A prospective cohort study among Chinese adults

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The associations between genetic factors and waist circumference (WC) with stroke risk have been evaluated in Western studies. However, evidence of this association has rarely been reported in the Chinese population. This study aimed to evaluate the association between WC and family history of stroke (FHS) with ischemic stroke (IS) risk among Chinese adults and to further explore the potential interaction of these associations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study recruited 35,508 participants aged 30-79 years from the Qingdao urban area during 2004-2008. A total of 33,355 participants were included in study. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the independent and interactional associations between FHS and WC and IS risk. Participants with FHS had a 29% (HR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.12-1.50) higher IS risk than those without FHS. Participants with excessive WC (85 cm for males and 80 cm for females) had a 78% (HR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.51-2.10) higher IS risk than those with normal WC. The combined effect of FHS and excessive WC on IS was statistically significant (HR = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.84-2.86). The present study further found statistically significant multiplicative interactions of FHS and WC with IS risk (Pinteraction < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The present study indicated that FHS and WC were significantly associated with an increased risk of IS. The association between FHS and IS was associated with excessive WC.

Weight variability and diabetes complications

Body weight is a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). More recently, weight variability, i.e. the oscillation of body weight over time, has also been suggested to be independently associated with development of CVD and mortality in subjects without diabetes and in people with both type 1 and type 2 diabetes (T2D). In T2D, weight variability emerged as one of the most relevant risk factors for CVD and it was suggested to interact with the variability of other risk factors to identify people at high cardiovascular risk. In addition, weight variability seems also to confer a higher risk for microvascular complications in people with T2D. While the exact mechanism linking weight variability to CVD is unknown, evidence from experimental models suggests that weight cycling promote an enduring pro-inflammatory program in the adipose tissue. Here we review the clinical evidence relative to the association of weight variability with CVD and microvascular complications of diabetes. We then briefly summarize the alterations proposed to explain this association. Finally, we synthesize the possible strategies, e.g. specific dietetic regimens and available glucose-lowering drugs, to minimize weight fluctuations.

Big Data Research in the Field of Endocrine Diseases Using the Korean National Health Information Database

The Korean National Health Information Database (NHID) contains big data combining information obtained from the National Health Insurance Service and health examinations. Data are provided in the form of a cohort, and the NHID can be used to conduct longitudinal studies and research on rare diseases. Moreover, data on the cause and date of death are provided by Statistics Korea. Research and publications based on the NHID have increased explosively in the field of endocrine disorders. However, because the data were not collected for research purposes, studies using the NHID have limitations, particularly the need for the operational definition of diseases. In this review, we describe the characteristics of the Korean NHID, operational definitions of endocrine diseases used for research, and an overview of recent studies in endocrinology using the Korean NHID.

Weight variability and cardiovascular outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The association between body weight variability and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been investigated previously with mixed findings. However, there has been no extensive study which systematically evaluates the current evidence. Furthermore, the impact of ethnicity and type 2 diabetes on this phenomena has not yet been investigated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the effect of weight variability on risk of CVD (any cardiovascular (CV) event, composite CV outcome, CV death, Stroke, Myocardial Infarction) and the influence of ethnicity and type 2 diabetes status on the observed association. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed according to the meta-analyses of observational studies in epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. The electronic databases PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library were searched for studies that investigated the relationship between body weight or BMI variability and CV diseases using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms and keywords. The relative risks (RRs) for the outcomes were collected from studies, pooled, and analysed using a random-effects model to estimate the overall relative risk. Of 5645 articles screened, 23 studies with a total population of 15,382,537 fulfilled the prespecified criteria and were included. Individuals in the highest strata of body weight variability were found to have significantly increased risk of any CV event (RR = 1.27; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.17-1.38; P < 0.0001; I² = 97.28%), cardiovascular death (RR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.03-1.60; P < 0.0001; I² = 55.16%), myocardial infarction (RR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.09-1.59; P = 0.0037; I² = 97.14%), stroke (RR = 1.21; 95% CI 1.19-1.24; P < 0.0001; I² = 0.06%), and compound CVD outcomes (RR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.08-1.73; P = 0.01; I² = 92.41%). Similar RRs were observed regarding BMI variability and per unit standard deviation (SD) increase in body weight variability. Comparable effects were seen in people with and without diabetes, in White Europeans and Asians. In conclusion, body weight variability is associated with increased risk of CV diseases regardless of ethnicity or diabetes status. Future research is needed to prove a causative link between weight variability and CVD risk, as appropriate interventions to maintain stable weight could positively influence CVD.

Waist Circumference and Body Mass Index Variability and Incident Diabetic Microvascular Complications: A Post Hoc Analysis of ACCORD Trial

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with adverse health events among diabetic patients, however, the relationship between obesity fluctuation and risk of microvascular complications among this specific population is unclear. We aimed to examine the effect of waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI) variability on the risk of diabetic microvascular outcome.

METHODS

Annually recorded anthropometric data in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study was used to examine the association of WC and BMI variability defined as variability independent of mean, with the risk of microvascular outcomes, including neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) (Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov., no. NCT00000620).

RESULTS

There were 4,031, 5,369, and 2,601 cases of neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy during a follow-up period of 22,524, 23,941, and 23,850 person-years, respectively. Higher levels of WC and BMI variability were associated with an increased risk of neuropathy. Compared with the lowest quartile, the fully-adjusted HR (95% CI) for the highest quartile of WC and BMI variability for neuropathy risk were 1.21 (1.05 to 1.40) and 1.16 (1.00 to 1.33), respectively. Also, higher quartiles of BMI variability but not WC variability were associated with increased risk of nephropathic events. The fully-adjusted HR (95% CI) for the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile of BMI variability was 1.31 (1.18 to 1.46). However, the results for retinopathic events were all insignificant.

CONCLUSION

Among participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus, WC and BMI variability were associated with a higher risk of neuropathic events, whereas BMI variability was associated with an increased risk of nephropathic events.

Body Mass Index Is Independently Associated with the Presence of Ischemia in Myocardial Perfusion Imaging

Background and Objectives: Obesity has been linked to various cardiovascular risk factors, increased incidence of coronary artery disease, and myocardial perfusion defects. The aim of this study was to investigate if body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were associated with myocardial perfusion defects. Materials and Methods: A total of 308 consecutive patients who had myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and a complete medical record on file were studied retrospectively. Results: The median age was 69 (61−76) years, the BMI was 27.6 (24.4−30.7) kg/m2, and the WC was 110 (102−118) cm. Of the 308 patients, 239 patients (77.6%) had myocardial ischemia. A positive test for ischemia was more frequent in men compared to women (72 vs. 28%, p < 0.001). Within the male group, BMI and WC were not significantly different between the ischemia and non-ischemia groups. In contrast, within the female group, both BMI (30.2 vs. 27.1 kg/m2, p = 0.002) and WC (112 vs. 105.5 cm, p = 0.020) were significantly higher in the ischemia group. Multivariable logistic regression showed that male sex and BMI were the only two independent predictors of ischemia in our patient population. Conclusions: This study showed that BMI was an independent predictor of ischemia in our patient population.

Lipid cutoffs for increased cardiovascular disease risk in nondiabetic young people

AIMS

The relevance of blood lipid abnormalities to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in young populations is unclear. Here, we aimed to identify the cutoff levels of lipid parameters for increased risk of CVD among nondiabetic young adults aged 20-39 years.

METHODS

Using data from a nationally representative Korean National Health Insurance System database, we followed up 6,204,153 subjects who underwent health examinations between 2009 and 2012 until the end of 2018. The primary outcome was incident CVD, defined as a composite of myocardial infarction and stroke. We assessed the associations between pre-specified lipid levels and CVD risk. Subgroup analysis of the number of cardiovascular risk factors (obesity, hypertension, and current smoking) was also conducted.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, there were 14,569 (0.23%) cases of myocardial infarction, 9,459 (0.15%) cases of stroke, and 23,680 (0.38%) cases of composite CVD. Using total cholesterol (TC) level of <140 mg/dL, triglyceride (TG) level of <60 mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol level of <100 mg/dL, and non-HDL-cholesterol level of <130 mg/dL as reference groups, a significantly higher risk of CVD was observed in subjects with a TC level of ≥200 mg/dL, TG level of ≥60 mg/dL, LDL-cholesterol level of ≥130 mg/dL, or non-HDL-cholesterol level of ≥140 mg/dL. The cutoff levels of TC that had statistical significance for increased risk of CVD were 240, 220, and 200 mg/dL in subjects with 0, 1, or 2-3 risk factors, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Even modest increases in lipid levels were associated with increased risk of CVD in this nondiabetic young population. Our data provide potential criteria for stratifying CVD risk based on real-world evidence.

Effects of exercise initiation and smoking cessation after new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus on risk of mortality and cardiovascular outcomes

Lifestyle changes after a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) can affect vascular health outcomes. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of changes in smoking and exercise on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with newly diagnosed DM. Data were analyzed for 181,591 people with newly diagnosed type 2 DM who underwent 2 serial health examinations within 2 years before and after DM diagnosis. The study population was followed from the baseline to the date of death or cardiovascular events, or until December 31, 2018 and median follow-up was 6.07 years. Based on the change in status from before to after the diagnosis, participants were grouped into smoking groups (continuous smokers, quitters, new smokers, and nonsmokers) and exercise groups (constant exercisers, new exercisers, exercise dropouts, and nonexercisers). Compared with the nonexercisers, those who initiated exercise after their DM diagnosis had a lower risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and all-cause mortality: the hazard ratio (HR; 95% confidence interval [CI]) was 0.85 (0.76–0.94) for MI, 0.86 (0.78–0.94) for stroke, and 0.84 (0.89–0.90) for all-cause mortality. Quitters had a higher risk of MI, stroke, and all-cause mortality than nonsmokers, but their risk level was much lower than that in continuous smokers. When the group of continuous smokers and nonexercisers was considered as the reference group, participants who quit smoking and remained nonexercisers had a 21% lower risk of CVD (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.70–0.90). Those who quit smoking and started exercising had a 46% reduced risk of CVD (HR 0.54; 95% CI 0.41–0.71) and a 22% reduced risk in all-cause mortality (HR 0.78; 95% CI 0.63–0.96). Smoking cessation and exercise initiation after a diagnosis of new-onset type 2 DM was associated with a reduced risk of CVD and all-cause mortality.

Association between Variability of Metabolic Risk Factors and Cardiometabolic Outcomes

Despite strenuous efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by improving cardiometabolic risk factors, such as glucose and cholesterol levels, and blood pressure, there is still residual risk even in patients reaching treatment targets. Recently, researchers have begun to focus on the variability of metabolic variables to remove residual risks. Several clinical trials and cohort studies have reported a relationship between the variability of metabolic parameters and CVDs. Herein, we review the literature regarding the effect of metabolic factor variability and CVD risk, and describe possible mechanisms and potential treatment perspectives for reducing cardiometabolic risk factor variability.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of insulin-requiring gestational diabetes

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common chronic liver diseases; however, there has been little research into its impact on gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHODS

This study included 308,095 women registered in the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, who delivered between 2011 and 2015 and received a health examination within 52 weeks before pregnancy. Insulin-requiring GDM was defined as no insurance claims for diabetes mellitus and a fasting blood glucose level of < 126 mg/dL before pregnancy, and initiation of insulin treatment during pregnancy. A fatty liver index (FLI) was calculated using body mass index, waist circumference, and blood triglyceride and γ-glutamyl transferase levels. FLI scores < 30 ruled out hepatic steatosis, while FLI scores ≥ 60 indicated NAFLD.

RESULTS

The prevalence of NAFLD was 0.8% (2355/308,095) and 1984 (0.6%) subjects developed insulin-requiring GDM. FLIs of 30-59 and ≥ 60 were significantly associated with increased risk of insulin-requiring GDM (odds ratio [OR] 3.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.99-4.10; OR 4.19; 95% CI 3.37-5.23), respectively. Further exploration of the association of FLI with GDM across FLI decile categories revealed a steady increase in OR across the categories. The association was more prominent among those without metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSION

NAFLD in women is an independent risk factor for insulin-requiring GDM.

Increased Risk of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Individuals with High Weight Variability

BACKGROUND

Weight loss through lifestyle modification is recommended for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Recent studies have suggested that repeated loss and gain of weight is associated with worse health outcomes. This study aimed to examine the association between weight variability and the risk of NAFLD in patients without diabetes.

METHODS

We examined the health-checkup data of 30,708 participants who had undergone serial examinations between 2010 and 2014. Weight variability was assessed using coefficient of variation and the average successive variability of weight (ASVW), which was defined as the sum of absolute weight changes between successive years over the 5-year period divided by 4. The participants were classified according to the baseline body mass index and weight difference over 4 years.

RESULTS

On dividing the participants into four groups according to ASVW quartile groups, those in the highest quartile showed a significantly increased risk of NAFLD compared to those in the lowest quartile (odds ratio [OR], 1.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.63 to 2.19). Among participants without obesity at baseline, individuals with high ASVW showed increased risk of NAFLD (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.61 to 2.01). Participants with increased weight over 4 years and high ASVW demonstrated higher risk of NAFLD compared to those with stable weight and low ASVW (OR, 4.87; 95% CI, 4.29 to 5.53).

CONCLUSION

Regardless of participant baseline obesity status, high weight variability was associated with an increased risk of developing NAFLD. Our results suggest that further effort is required to minimize weight fluctuations after achieving a desirable body weight.