Models of alien species richness show moderate predictive accuracy and poor transferability

Assessing and Predicting the Distribution of Riparian Invasive Plants in Continental Portugal

The number of alien plant species is growing steadily across all world regions. These numbers tend to be exceptionally high in riparian ecosystems, often with substantial negative consequences for native species communities and ecosystem services provision. Here, we map the richness of invasive alien plant species in riparian ecosystems of continental Portugal, assess the relative importance of human and natural factors in shaping the uncovered patterns, and predict richness values along watercourses and at the municipal level for the whole study area. We found a higher richness of invasive alien plants in low altitudes and in downstream areas where human concentration is high. As time progresses, ongoing and increasing levels of socio-economic activity and globalization of plant trade will conceivably lead to a higher number of alien species becoming established. National and sub-national measures aiming to prevent and manage biological invasions in riparian ecosystems require coordinated efforts involving both local entities and those with responsibilities in the management of upstream catchment areas. These efforts must also be targeted to achieve future biodiversity protection goals as part of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.

Monitoring Plant Diversity to Support Agri-Environmental Schemes: Evaluating Statistical Models Informed by Satellite and Local Factors in Southern European Mountain Pastoral Systems

The spatial monitoring of plant diversity in the endangered species-rich grasslands of European mountain pastoral systems is an important step for fairer and more efficient Agri-Environmental policy schemes supporting conservation. This study assessed the underlying support for a spatially explicit monitoring of plant species richness at parcel level (policy making scale) in Southern European mountain grasslands, with statistical models informed by Sentinel-2 satellite and environmental factors. Twenty-four grassland parcels were surveyed for species richness in the Peneda-Gerês National Park, northern Portugal. Using a multi-model inference approach, three competing hypotheses guided by the species-scaling theoretical framework were established: species–area (P1), species–energy (P2) and species–spectral heterogeneity (P3), each representing a candidate spatial pathway to predict species richness. To evaluate the statistical support of each spatial pathway, generalized linear models were fitted and model selection based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) was conducted. Later, the performance of the most supported spatial pathway(s) was assessed using a leave-one-out cross validation. A model guided by the species–energy hypothesis (P2) was the most parsimonious spatial pathway to monitor plant species richness in mountain grassland parcels (P2, AICc = 137.6, ∆AIC = 0.0, wi = 0.97). Species–area and species–spectral heterogeneity pathways (P1 and P3) were less statistically supported (ΔAICc values in the range 5.7–10.0). The underlying support of the species–energy spatial pathway was based on Sentinel-2 satellite data, namely on the near-infrared (NIR) green ratio in the spring season (NIR/Greenspring) and on its ratio of change between spring and summer (NIR/Greenchange). Both predictor variables related negatively to species richness. Grassland parcels with lower values of near-infrared (NIR) green ratio and lower seasonal amplitude presented higher species richness records. The leave-one-out cross validation indicated a moderate performance of the species–energy spatial pathway in predicting species richness in the grassland parcels covered by the dataset (R2 = 0.44, RMSE = 4.3 species, MAE = 3.5 species). Overall, a species–energy framework based on Sentinel 2 data resulted in a promising spatial pathway for the monitoring of species richness in mountain grassland parcels and for informing decision making on Agri-Environmental policy schemes. The near-infrared (NIR) green ratio and its change in time seems a relevant variable to deliver predictions for plant species richness and further research should be conducted on that.

Increased acclimation ability accompanies a thermal niche shift of a recent invasion

Globalization is removing dispersal barriers for the establishment of invasive species and enabling their spread to novel climates. New thermal environments in the invaded range will be particularly challenging for ectotherms, as their metabolism directly depends on environmental temperature. However, we know little about the role climatic niche shifts play in the invasion process, and the underlining physiological mechanisms. We tested if a thermal niche shift accompanies an invasion, and if native and introduced populations differ in their ability to acclimate thermal limits. We used an alien ant species-Tapinoma magnum-which recently started to spread across Europe. Using occurrence data and accompanying climatic variables, we measured the amount of overlap between thermal niches in the native and invaded range. We then experimentally tested the acclimation ability in native and introduced populations by incubating T. magnum at 18, 25 and 30°C. We measured upper and lower critical thermal limits after 7 and 21 days. We found that T. magnum occupies a distinct thermal niche in its introduced range, which is on average 3.5°C colder than its native range. Critical thermal minimum did not differ between populations from the two ranges when colonies were maintained at 25 or 30°C, but did differ after colony acclimation at a lower temperature. We found twofold greater acclimation ability of introduced populations to lower temperatures, after prolonged incubation at 18°C. Increased acclimation ability of lower thermal limits could explain the expansion of the realized thermal niche in the invaded range, and likely contributed to the spread of this species to cooler climates. Such thermal plasticity could be an important, yet so far understudied, factor underlying the expansion of invasive insects into novel climates.

MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA): disentangling large-scale context dependence in biological invasions

Macroecology is the study of patterns, and the processes that determine those patterns, in the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales, whether they be spatial (from hundreds of kilometres to global), temporal (from decades to centuries), and organismal (numbers of species or higher taxa). In the context of invasion ecology, macroecological studies include, for example, analyses of the richness, diversity, distribution, and abundance of alien species in regional floras and faunas, spatio-temporal dynamics of alien species across regions, and cross-taxonomic analyses of species traits among comparable native and alien species pools. However, macroecological studies aiming to explain and predict plant and animal naturalisations and invasions, and the resulting impacts, have, to date, rarely considered the joint effects of species traits, environment, and socioeconomic characteristics. To address this, we present the MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA). The MAFIA explains the invasion phenomenon using three interacting classes of factors – alien species traits, location characteristics, and factors related to introduction events – and explicitly maps these interactions onto the invasion sequence from transport to naturalisation to invasion. The framework therefore helps both to identify how anthropogenic effects interact with species traits and environmental characteristics to determine observed patterns in alien distribution, abundance, and richness; and to clarify why neglecting anthropogenic effects can generate spurious conclusions. Event-related factors include propagule pressure, colonisation pressure, and residence time that are important for mediating the outcome of invasion processes. However, because of context dependence, they can bias analyses, for example those that seek to elucidate the role of alien species traits. In the same vein, failure to recognise and explicitly incorporate interactions among the main factors impedes our understanding of which macroecological invasion patterns are shaped by the environment, and of the importance of interactions between the species and their environment. The MAFIA is based largely on insights from studies of plants and birds, but we believe it can be applied to all taxa, and hope that it will stimulate comparative research on other groups and environments. By making the biases in macroecological analyses of biological invasions explicit, the MAFIA offers an opportunity to guide assessments of the context dependence of invasions at broad geographical scales.

Scientists' warning on invasive alien species

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long‐term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long‐term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.

Human-mediated dispersal in insects

Central to the problem of biological invasions, human activities introduce species beyond their native ranges and participate in their subsequent spread. Understanding human-mediated dispersal is therefore crucial for both predicting and preventing invasions. Here, we show that decomposing human-mediated dispersal into three temporal phases: departure, transport and arrival, allows to understand how the characteristics of human activities and the biological traits of species influence each phase of the dispersal process, and ultimately govern invasion pathways in insects. Integrating these precise mechanisms into future invasion models should increase their realism and generalization for any potential insect invader. Moreover, understanding these mechanisms can provide insight into why some invasive insects are more widely distributed than others, and to estimate risks posed by species that have not yet been introduced.