From never partnered to serial cohabitors: Union trajectories to childlessness

Partnership trajectories preceding medically assisted reproduction

The number of people who undergo medically assisted reproduction (MAR) to conceive has increased considerably in recent decades. However, existing research into the demographics and the partnership histories of this growing subgroup is limited. Using unique data from Finnish population registers on nulliparous women born in Finland in 1971-77 (n = 21,129; ∼10 per cent of all women) who had undergone MAR treatment, we created longitudinal partnership histories from age 16 until first MAR treatment. We identified six typical partnership trajectories and used relative frequency sequence plots to investigate heterogeneity in partnership transitions within and between these groups. The majority of women (60.7 per cent) underwent MAR with their first partner, followed by women who underwent MAR in a second (21.5 per cent) or higher-order partnership (7.1 per cent), while 10.7 per cent underwent MAR without a partner. On average, women undergoing MAR were relatively young (with around half starting treatment before age 30) and were highly educated with high incomes.

Diverse pathways to permanent childlessness in Singapore: A latent class analysis

The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region's childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon's entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive cohorts. Results revealed five distinct profiles of pathways to childlessness: the Never-Married Semi-Professionals, the Low-Flex Blue-Collars, the Highly Educated Professionals, the Ever-Married Semi-Professionals, and the Flexible Blue-Collars. These pathway profiles were significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics such as gender and family background. Women's pathways to childlessness were more standardized and heavily influenced by partnership characteristics, compared to those of men. The childless from privileged family background were less likely to follow pathways characterized by disadvantageous education and occupational status. There were also rising trends of voluntary childlessness among married childless individuals and increasing heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness across successive birth cohorts. In sum, our findings are consistent with some of the predictions of the Second Demographic Transition theory, suggesting that Singapore may be experiencing a demographic transition characterized by rising childlessness, decoupling of marriage and childbearing, and de-standardization of the life course.

First Partner Choice in a Native Minority: The Role of Own and Parental Ethnolinguistic Affiliation

Despite increasing diversity within many societies, ethnically endogamous unions remain common. In contexts where one ethnic minority has lived alongside the majority for centuries, understanding who partners with whom is central to understanding how ethnic boundaries are maintained or dissolved. This study examines the role of own and parental ethnolinguistic affiliation for the first partner choice in Finland. We provide a unique test of the relevance of ethnic endogamy across two generations, in a context where both groups are native, but one (Finnish speakers) overwhelmingly outnumbers the other (Swedish speakers). Using register data on the total population, we examine how a person's ethnolinguistic affiliation and background affect the choice of the first cohabiting partner in terms of the partner's ethnolinguistic affiliation and background. We apply discrete-time competing risk models for men and women born 1970-1983. Results indicate that Swedish-registered individuals with two Swedish-registered parents are, by far, the most likely to partner with another Swedish-registered person with endogamous background. Partnering with a Swedish-registered person with exogamous background is most likely among individuals who themselves come from mixed unions. Patterns are remarkably consistent across gender, and adjustments for education and residential area only marginally alter the results.

Partnership dynamics and entry into parenthood: Comparison of Finnish birth cohorts 1969-2000

During the past decade, the stability of close-to-replacement-level fertility ended in all Nordic countries, with its decline to the lowest level in Finland. It is unclear whether and how partnership dynamics have changed, and whether they play a role in fertility developments. We focus on the patterns and associations between the formation and stability of co-residential partnerships and first birth among Finnish women and men, and on whether and how these associations have changed across birth cohorts. We utilise total population register data on persons born between 1969 and 2000 in Finland, and adopt the event history method. Our results indicate that half of the women formed their first co-residential partnerships by the age of 22 years. Cohorts born in the early 1990s were the first to delay the formation of non-marital first partnerships. In contrast, first births are increasingly postponed, and the proportion of women and men, who become parents, has declined across recent cohorts. Among men, we observe higher median ages for family formation events and higher likelihoods of not forming a family. As a result of fertility decline and increase in partnership instability, for the first time, the probability of separation is higher than that of first births among partnered women born in the 1990s. Our findings show that at a behavioural level, the once close link between partnership formation and parenthood has progressively eroded across consecutive birth cohorts. Together with the ongoing tendency to delay first births, decreasing partnership stability, and first indications of delaying partnership formation, the potential of witnessing a marked increase of fertility levels in the near future is delimited. Our study's results contribute to a better understanding of the demographic mechanisms behind the decline in fertility in Finland, over the recent decade.

Partnership trajectories and their consequences over the life course. Evidence from the German LifE Study

OBJECTIVE

Following a life course perspective, this study examines the link between partnership trajectories and three dimensions of psychological well-being: psychological health, overall sense of self-worth and quality of life.

BACKGROUND

Assuming that life outcomes are the result of prior decisions, experiences and events, partnership histories can be seen as a resource for psychological well-being. Furthermore, advantages or disadvantages from living with or without a partner should accumulate over time. While previous cross-sectional research has mainly focused on the influence of partnership status or a status change on well-being, prior longitudinal studies could not control for reverse causality of well-being and partnership trajectories. This research addresses the question of how different patterns of partnership biographies are related to a person's well-being in middle adulthood. Selection effects of pre-trajectory well-being as well as current life conditions are also taken into account.

METHOD

Using data from the German LifE Study, the partnership trajectories between ages of 16 and 45 are classified by sequence and cluster analysis. OLS regression is then used to examine the link between types of partnership trajectories and depression, self-esteem and overall life satisfaction at age 45.

RESULTS

For women, well-being declined when experiencing unstable non-cohabitational union trajectories or divorce followed by unpartnered post-marital trajectories. Men suffered most from being long-term single. The results could not be explained by selection effects of pre-trajectory well-being.

CONCLUSION

While women seem to 'recover' from most of the negative effects of unstable partnership trajectories through a new partnership, for men it was shown that being mainly unpartnered has long-lasting effects on their psychological well-being.

Association between depression and the likelihood of having children: a nationwide register study in Finland

BACKGROUND

Depression may be associated with a lower likelihood of having children, but the findings are inconsistent. Previous population-based studies on this topic are limited.

OBJECTIVE

We examined associations between depression and the likelihood of having children, the number of children, and the parental age at first birth. We also evaluated whether these associations differ for people with low, middle, and high educational levels.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a nationwide register cohort study including all individuals born in Finland from 1960 to 1980 (n=1,408,951). Depression diagnoses were identified from the Care Register for Health Care (containing records of inpatient hospital episodes for the period 1969 to 2017 and of specialist outpatient visits for the period 1996 to 2017). The main outcomes-having biological children, the number of biological children, and the parental age at first birth-were identified from the Population Register of Statistics Finland and were defined either in the last year of the follow-up in 2017 or the last year alive or living in Finland. The association between depression and the likelihood of having children was examined using a logistic regression analysis; the association between depression and the number of children was evaluated using Poisson regression analyses, and the association between depression and the age at first birth was evaluated using a linear regression analysis. All analyses were conducted separately for men and women.

RESULTS

For both men and women, secondary care-treated depression was associated with a lower likelihood of having children (odds ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.67 for men; odds ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.85 for women) and with having fewer children (incidence rate ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.87 for men; incidence rate ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-0.96 for women). Depression was associated with a slightly lower parental age at first birth (33.1 vs 34.0; P<.001 for men; 31.3 vs 32.1; P<.001 for women). Dose-response associations between the severity of depression and a decreased likelihood of having children, as well as having fewer children, were observed. Earlier onset of depression was related to a lower likelihood of having children and to having fewer children. Among men and women in middle- and high-level educational groups, depression was associated with a lower likelihood of having children and with having fewer children. Among men with a low level of education, no associations were observed. Among women with a low level of education, depression was associated with a higher likelihood of having children and with having more children.

CONCLUSION

Both men and women with secondary care-treated depression have a lower likelihood of having children and have fewer children. Our findings suggest that depression may be one of the factors that contribute to the likelihood of having children, which should be addressed by policy makers.

Couple Formation is Prolonged not Postponed. New Paths to Union Formation in Contemporary France

In France, as in other European countries, the age at first cohabiting union has risen over the past decades, as a result of longer school enrolment, structural economic changes, and new family norms. While the median age at first co-resident couple was 23.8 for men born in France in the beginning of the 1950s, it was 26.0 among the generation born in the beginning of the 1970s. This tendency is often referred to as a postponement of couple formation and as a part of a broader delay in the transition to adulthood. This article argues, on the contrary, that couple formation has not been postponed but prolonged. In fact, age at first couple formation has remained stable across generations born since the mid-twentieth century in France. Starting from there, we take on a biographical approach to examine the nature, duration, and articulation of the successive stages that make up young people's conjugal trajectories in France. What are the different pathways into couple life, and how have these changed over time? In order to answer these questions, we use optimal matching methods to identify ideal typical trajectories and then logistic regressions in order to see how these relate to generational differences as well as sociodemographic characteristics. We observe three traditional, three timeless and five new paths to couple life. The main historical change is the increasingly gradual nature of union formation, a trend that reflects a dual pattern. First, unions are progressively institutionalized: the time laps between different relationship stages, such as "going out," "settling in," and eventually marrying, have expanded. Second, young people increasingly experience several relationships during youth: the different steps of couple formation are taken with different partners. We conclude that couple formation is not delayed per se; it is rather the material and institutional formalization of unions that is put off for the future. We discuss the scientific and methodological implications of this finding.

Life-Course Trajectories of Childless Women: Country-Specific or Universal?

While existing research has documented complexities in biographies of childless women, few studies to date have systematically examined the life-course pathways of the childless from a comparative, cross-country perspective. In this paper, we analyse biographies of childless women in four countries-Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States-in order to investigate whether pathways into childlessness are country-specific or commonly shared across institutional, cultural, and geographical settings. Partnership, education, and employment histories are examined using sequence analysis with dynamic Hamming distance and cluster analysis. Discrepancy analysis indicates a country-effect in women's biographies although life-course patterns identified in each country share similarities. Overall, seven life-course trajectories have been identified, with the most numerous cluster comprising single, working women who completed their education at a relatively young age. The results highlight a marked variation in the life-courses of childless women. Put together, these findings provide descriptive evidence for both country-specificity and cross-country similarity in the pathways to childlessness.

Understanding the early life mediators behind the intergenerational transmission of partnership dissolution

Whilst research has demonstrated an intergenerational transmission of partnership dissolution, there is limited evidence as to the early life course pathways through which these associations operate, and whether these differ by gender. Many studies have not considered prospective data from early childhood, thus potentially neglecting the importance of the early childhood period in explaining this intergenerational transmission. Given that serial partnering has become increasingly commonplace it is important research considers those who experience multiple partnership dissolution. This paper examines, using data from the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study, the early life mediators underpinning the association between parental separation and the number of offspring partnership dissolutions. Among both men and women there is a significant unadjusted relationship between parental separation and the experience of multiple partnership dissolutions in adulthood. These associations were reduced once parental confounders and childhood mediators are included. Formal mediation analyses demonstrated that early life mediators accounted for more of the association in men than women. Mediators included childhood living standards, and for men child cognition and child behaviour, and for women maternal mental wellbeing. Parental separation and many early life mediators were related to the likelihood of multiple partnership dissolutions through age at first partnership.

Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union–first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual simulations showed that, for the decline in first births since 2010, fertility within unions matters more (three-quarters) than union dynamics (one-quarter): that is, lower fertility in cohabitating and married individuals explained 42% and 13% of the decline, respectively, and decreasing fertility rates among couples entering cohabitation explained a further 17%. Decreasing marriage (19%) and cohabitation rates (2–4%) as well as higher union dissolution rates (6%) explained a smaller share of the first birth decline. The decline in first births was somewhat sharper among the lower social strata, but across strata the decreasing first birth transitions in unions explained most of the decline. To conclude, while changing union dynamics provide a partial explanation, postponing or foregoing fertility within unions represents the primary reason for the fertility decline.

A new perspective on the generational structures of families - Generational placements over the life course

With data from the German Ageing Survey (https://www.dza.de/en/research/deas), for men and women of the birth cohorts 1939-43, 1944-48, and 1949-53 (n = 2607), the occurrence, timing, and ordering of generational placements defined through the (simultaneous) presence of biological parents, children, and grandchildren up to the age of 60 is examined using sequence and cluster analyses. Cohort, gender, and regional differences are examined with multinomial logistic regressions. Six different typical patterns of individual trajectories were identified, ranging from clusters with multiple transitions early in life to more stable clusters with fewer transitions later on. The most common were three-generation families, while patterns without children were the most uncommon. Across cohorts, generational structures of families changed towards "more stable" trajectories. Clusters characterised by early (grand)parenthood were more likely experienced by women and individuals growing up in former East Germany. The presented patterns of individual trajectories reveal novel detailed insights into how the opportunity structures for intergenerational family support differ between individuals and develop across individual age and socio-historical context.

Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000

After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.

Male childlessness across the adult life course: A case study addressing a potentially 'vulnerable' population

BACKGROUND

Like other Latin American countries, over the past half-century, Colombia has experienced rapid urbanization, dramatic fertility decline, and massive educational expansion. These socio-demographic changes have transformed gender roles and, with them, the landscape surrounding reproductive decisions, family life, and opportunities in other life 'domains.' I draw on the 'life course cube' (LCC) approach, which frames individual actions within a multidimensional behavioral process shaped by interdependencies between time, life domains, and levels to explore Colombian male childlessness.

OBJECTIVE

I seek to answer two questions: How does Colombian non-fatherhood vary across the life course (with respect to overall prevalence and associated factors)? and How do men frame their non-fatherhood, and, especially, how do they envision a future without children?

METHODOLOGY

To address the first question, I used the 2015 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey's men's dataset (N > 30,000) to explore the overall level of male childlessness across age/generational groups and separate voluntary/involuntary childlessness. Then, using generalized linear models, I analyzed the relationships between different life domains (e.g. education, employment) and non-fatherhood at time points representing early-, mid-, and later-life childlessness (among men in their thirties, forties, and fifties). To address the second question, I used qualitative data from in-depth life history interviews I conducted with male (N = 7) and female (N = 28) parents/non-parents in Bogotá, analyzing connections between different 'levels' of men's experiences: their inner feelings, past and (envisioned) future actions, and societal factors framing childlessness.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The quantitative findings indicate that male childlessness across the adult life course is strongly associated with later start of first union/never entering a union, and with small ideal family size. Later-life, definitive childlessness is also strongly associated with relative economic disadvantage and lower-prestige occupations, though early-life fatherhood postponement is not. Qualitatively, interviewed men expressed more worry and less preparation for the future than childless women. Understanding 'vulnerability' as 'the dynamics of stress and resources across the life course', I discuss these findings, paying attention to older non-fathers' potential psycho-social, relational, and socioeconomic vulnerability. Therefore, this work seeks to contribute to the literature on the determinants and experiences of male childlessness, focusing on a Latin American perspective.

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Intergenerational persistence of family formation trajectories among teenage-mothers and -fathers in Sweden

In this paper, we address the questions of whether early family trajectories of parents are reflected in childbearing teenagers, and how socio-economic and family background factors impact these intergenerational correlations. We use within-dyad sequence analysis to examine combined marital and childbearing trajectories, up to age 30, of two generations of a representative sample of childbearing teenagers born between 1975 and 1985 and their progenitors, drawn from the Swedish population register data. We find evidence for within-family persistence of early family trajectories, with better matches across family state sequences for dyads composed of childbearing teenagers and their parents, than for dyads composed of childbearing teenagers and parents of random birth cohort peers. Regression analysis shows that these intergenerational associations are stronger and occur among later-born siblings from non-traditional family backgrounds, and among families with lower socio-economic backgrounds. This study fills gaps in the knowledge of intergenerational family life course dynamics beyond the early parenthood event.

Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries

During the 2010s, fertility rates fell across the Nordic region. The onset of these declines seems linked to the Great Recession of 2008-2009, but their continuation cannot easily be linked to subsequent economic change. The 1990s, too, brought episodes of economic crises to the Nordic region that were followed by different degrees of fertility decline. In this study, we provide an empirical overview of parity-, age- and education-specific fertility developments in the five Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in 2008 and the early 1990s, respectively. We demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in fertility developments across countries after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are much more similar across the five countries. Likewise, the educational differences in birth hazards that characterized the developments after 1990 were much smaller in the initial years after 2008-2009. This reversal from heterogeneity to homogeneity in the fertility response to recessions calls for an expansion of theories on the cyclicality of fertility in relation to uncertainty and economic and social change. In our discussion, we consider the role of a set of factors that also incorporates the state, crisis management, and perceptions of economic and welfare uncertainty.

Pathways into childbearing delay of men and women in Australia

Childbearing delay is a pervasive feature of Australian society, but little research has been conducted to examine how socio-economic factors are linked to childbearing timing among Australian men and women. This paper addresses this by analysing the timing of first childbirth for a large sample of Australian residents (N = 4,444). The findings indicate that childbearing delay is socially patterned and that life course experiences shape the risk of delaying childbearing across genders. Having a tertiary qualification delays the transition to parenthood, especially for women. An uninterrupted career prolongs time to parenthood for women but accelerates it for men. Low occupational prestige, being married and having been in only one co-residential union are associated with earlier parenthood for both men and women. For each increase in education level, not being married is associated with increasing levels of childlessness. Clear-cut gender differences are found in the relationship between childlessness and childbearing delay.

The diversity of pathways to childlessness in the Czech Republic: The union histories of childless men and women

Despite the fact that not having a partner is a strong predictor for remaining childless, few studies have explored the heterogeneity of partnership trajectories among childless persons. This article fills the gap in knowledge about the pathways to childlessness in Central Europe by exploring the within-group diversity of partnership trajectories among childless persons between the ages of 18 and 40 under state socialism and during the post-1989 transformation in the Czech Republic. Based on data from the Gender and Generations Survey, we identify different types of union history among childless persons using sequence analysis and optimal matching-based clustering. Moreover, we directly assess variations in partnership trajectories across gender, education, and birth cohorts by analysing sequence discrepancy and the complexity index. In both the state-socialist and post-socialist contexts the most prevalent trajectory types were 'never partnered' and 'long-term partnerships', with only a small proportion of unstable partnership trajectories. Childless women experience more diverse and complex trajectories than childless men and their partnership trajectories vary more pronouncedly across educational groups than those of men. In contrast, cohort differences are more pronounced among childless men. We discuss the findings against the backdrop of the transition from a state-socialist to a post-socialist welfare state. The findings thus contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the social and historical embeddedness of pathways to childlessness and show how the links between gender, education, and family life-courses are context-specific.

Using sequence analysis to test if human life histories are coherent strategies

Life history theory, a prominent ecological model in biology, is widely used in the human sciences to make predictions about human behaviour. However, its principal assumptions have not been empirically tested. We address this gap with three research questions: (1) do humans exhibit coherent life history strategies; (2) do individuals adopt strategies along a slow-fast continuum; and (3) are socioeconomic circumstances during childhood associated with the pace of the life history strategy that an individual adopts? Data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study is used to reconstruct the life histories of US women including information on puberty, fertility, menopause and death. We introduce a novel methodological approach to evolutionary anthropology, sequence analysis, to assess if human life histories are coherent strategies and how these strategies are patterned. In subsequent analyses we used multinomial logistic regressions to test whether childhood socioeconomic status predicts the life history patterns women follow. Results provide little evidence that humans follow coherent life-history strategies; Wisconsin women are clustered by the number of children they have but not by ages at life events. Socioeconomic status does not predict which cluster women fall into, suggesting that less well-off women do not have higher fertility, as predicted.

The Heterogeneity of Partnership Trajectories to Childlessness in Germany

In recent decades, childlessness has increased across many European countries. In addition to socioeconomic characteristics, having a partner is considered a prerequisite in most fertility studies. Yet, still little is known about the partnership biographies of childless women and men. We assess the heterogeneity in the partnership trajectories of childless persons in Germany and explore compositional differences of partnership trajectories by gender and education. We use data from the German Family Panel to reconstruct partnership biographies reflecting the occurrence and frequency of different partnership states (singleness, living apart together, cohabitation, marriage). The sample comprises women and men born 1971-1973 whose life courses are observed from age 18-40. Applying sequence and cluster analysis, we identify five patterns of partnership trajectories: (1) 'Marriage' (14.6%); (2) 'Long-term cohabitation' (11.8%) with one partner; (3) 'Serial cohabitation' (15.6%); (4) 'LAT' (18.8%), long-term/multiple living-apart-together relationships; and (5) 'Single' (39.3%), long-term singleness. Men are overrepresented in the 'Single' cluster, especially if highly educated. Women are more often married and more likely to experience long-lasting singleness or multiple LAT episodes when being highly educated. We speculate that theories predicting high levels of childlessness in contexts where gender norms and work-family policies do not account for the increasing gender equality in education and labor force participation might also explain differences in the pathways leading to childlessness. Generally, our findings point at a more elaborate conceptualization of childlessness that moves away from a binary cross-sectional indicator and set the ground for future cross-national comparisons.

Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

Systematic comparisons of fertility developments based on education, gender and country context are rare. Using harmonized register data, we compare cohort total fertility and ultimate childlessness by gender and educational attainment for cohorts born beginning in 1940 in four Nordic countries. Cohort fertility (CTF) initially declined in all four countries, although for cohorts born in the 1950s and later, the CTF remained stable or declined only modestly. Childlessness, which had been increasing, has plateaued in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Women's negative educational gradient in relation to total fertility has vanished, except in Finland, while men's positive gradient has persisted. The highest level of men's childlessness appears among the least educated. In the oldest female cohorts, childlessness was highest among the highly educated, but these patterns have changed over the cohorts as childlessness has increased among the low educated and remained relatively stable among higher educated women. In Denmark, Norway and Sweden, childlessness is now highest among the least educated women. We witness both a new gender similarity and persistent (among men) and new (among women) educational disparities in childbearing outcomes in the Nordic region. Overall, the number of low educated has decreased remarkably over time. These population segments face increasing social and economic disadvantages that are reflected as well in their patterns of family formation.

Childlessness and union histories: evidence from Finnish population register data

From an evolutionary perspective, childlessness may be considered a failure, as it implies that there will be no direct transmission of one's genetic material to later generations. It is also a pressing social issue, because in many contemporary advanced societies, levels of childlessness have increased, and particularly so among men. The absence of a partner is naturally a fundamental determinant of childlessness. Empirical evidence on how childlessness relates to individuals' partnership histories is nevertheless limited. This issue was analysed with Finnish population register data, which allow the complete cohabitation and marriage histories of individuals from age 18 years to be observed. For women and men born between 1969 and 1971, logistic regression models were estimated for childlessness at age 40 by partnership histories in terms of various stages in the process of union formation and dissolution, and accounting for several socioeconomic variables. A strong link between union histories and childlessness was found, with short partnership spells raising the risk of not becoming a parent. Later age when leaving the parental home raised female childlessness, while a short first-union duration related more strongly to male childlessness. These findings may be considered as providing insights into how specific life-history strategies affect reproductive outcomes, and highlight the need to develop new approaches to understand this feature of social inequality.

Destination as a process: Sibling similarity in early socioeconomic trajectories

This paper proposes a process-oriented life course perspective on intergenerational mobility by comparing the early socioeconomic trajectories of siblings to those of unrelated persons. Based on rich Finnish register data (N = 21,744), the findings show that social origin affects not only final outcomes at given points in the life course but also longitudinal socioeconomic trajectories from ages 17-35 in early adulthood. We contribute to previous literature in three ways. First, we show that there is a pronounced similarity in the early socioeconomic trajectories of siblings. This similarity is stronger for same-sex siblings and stronger for brothers than for sisters. Second, we show that sibling similarity in full trajectories cannot be reduced to similarity in outcomes, i.e., siblings are not only more similar in the final outcomes that they obtain but also in the pathways that lead them to these outcomes. Third, our findings support that sibling similarity follows a U-shaped pattern by social class, i.e., similarity is especially strong in disadvantaged trajectories, weak among middle-class young adults, and increases again within the most advantaged trajectories. We conclude that measures of social mobility that concentrate on final outcomes are at risk of underestimating the association between social origin and destination because social inequalities are formed across the life course, not just at the end of specific life phases.

Trends in Childlessness Among Highly Educated Men in Sweden

Among men with post-secondary degrees in Sweden, one in four are childless by age 45, and this level has been constant over time (in this study, for men born 1956–1972). This high level of childlessness is somewhat surprising in the context of a significant gender imbalance among the highly educated (and thus the relative scarcity of highly educated men). In this study, I examine differences in childlessness among the highly educated by studying how educational prestige, social class, and income are associated with the likelihood of becoming a father. Higher income and social class background are positively associated with fatherhood, and this association has not changed over time. Educational prestige (higher degrees, or degrees from traditional universities) is not positively associated with fatherhood, while 2-year degrees have become more positively associated with fatherhood over time. The findings of this study suggest that socioeconomic resources are important for men's family formation in Sweden compared to educational resources, contrary to expectations from educational homophily and partner market perspectives.