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Carlos GC, Beatriz ML, Carles C, Raquel CC, Emmanuel S, Josep Maria LM, Jordi SC, Santiago L, Jorge Ramón LO. Assessing the epidemiological risk at the human-wild boar interface through a one health approach using an agent-based model in Barcelona, Spain. One Health 2023; 17:100598. [PMID: 37520846 PMCID: PMC10372376 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100598] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Revised: 06/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 08/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Wild boar (WB, Sus scrofa) populations are increasing in urban areas, posing an epidemiological risk for zoonotic pathogens such as hepatitis E virus (HEV) and antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter (AMR-CAMP), as well as non-zoonotic pathogens such as African swine fever virus (ASFV). An epidemiological extension of a validated Agent-Based Model (ABM) was developed to assess the one-year epidemiological scenarios of HEV, AMR-CAMP, and ASFV in the synurbic WB-human interface in Barcelona, Spain. The predicted citizen exposure was similar for HEV and AMR-CAMP, at 0.79% and 0.80% of the human population in Barcelona, respectively, despite AMR-CAMP being more prevalent in the WB population than HEV. This suggests a major role of faeces in pathogen transmission to humans in urban areas, resulting in a non-negligible public health risk. The ASFV model predicted that the entire WB population would be exposed to the virus through carcasses (87.6%) or direct contact (12.6%) in 51-71 days after the first case, with an outbreak lasting 71-124 days and reducing the initial WB population by 95%. The ABM predictions are useful for animal and public health risk assessments and to support risk-based decision-making. The study underscores the need for interdisciplinary cooperation among animal, public, and environmental health managers, and the implementation of the One Health approach to address the epidemiological and public health risks posed by the synurbization of WB in urban areas. The spatially explicit epidemiological predictions of the ABM can be adapted to other diseases and scenarios at the wildlife-livestock-human interface.
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Affiliation(s)
- González-Crespo Carlos
- Wildlife Ecology & Health Group and Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Martínez-López Beatriz
- Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA
| | - Conejero Carles
- Wildlife Ecology & Health Group and Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Castillo-Contreras Raquel
- Wildlife Ecology & Health Group and Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Serrano Emmanuel
- Wildlife Ecology & Health Group and Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
| | - López-Martín Josep Maria
- Department of Climatic Action, Food and Rural Agenda, Generalitat de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Serra-Cobo Jordi
- Departament de Biologia Evolutiva, Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals, Universitat de Barcelona, Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Lavín Santiago
- Wildlife Ecology & Health Group and Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
| | - López-Olvera Jorge Ramón
- Wildlife Ecology & Health Group and Servei d'Ecopatologia de Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia Animals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain
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Ko C, Ko DW, Cho W. Predicting Disparity between ASF-Managed Areas and Wild Boar Habitats: A Case of South Korea. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:3482. [PMID: 38003100 PMCID: PMC10668782 DOI: 10.3390/ani13223482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting both domestic and wild boars. Since its first outbreak in South Korea in 2019, substantial efforts have been made to prevent ASF transmission by reducing the wild boar population and eliminating infected carcasses; however, the persistence of ASF transmission has posed challenges to these efforts. To improve ASF management strategies, the limitations of current management strategies must be identified by considering disparities between wild boar habitats and ASF-managed areas with environmental and anthropogenic characteristics of wild boars and their management strategies. Here, ensemble species distribution models were used to estimate wild boar habitats and potential ASF-managed areas, with elevation, distance to urban areas, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as important variables. Binary maps of wild boar habitats and potential ASF-managed areas were generated using the maxSSS as the threshold criterion. Disparity areas of ASF management were identified by overlying regions evaluated as wild boar habitats with those not classified as ASF-managed areas. Dense forests near urban regions like Chungcheongbuk-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do were evaluated as disparity areas having high risk of ASF transmission. These findings hold significant potential for refining ASF management strategies and establishing proactive control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chanwoo Ko
- Department of Forest Resources, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Republic of Korea;
| | - Dongwook W. Ko
- Department of Forest, Environment, and Systems, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Republic of Korea;
| | - Wonhee Cho
- Industry Academic Cooperation Foundation, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Republic of Korea
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Ito S, Kawaguchi N, Bosch J, Aguilar-Vega C, Sánchez-Vizcaíno JM. What can we learn from the five-year African swine fever epidemic in Asia? Front Vet Sci 2023; 10:1273417. [PMID: 37841468 PMCID: PMC10569053 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1273417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Today's global swine industry is exposed to the unprecedented threat of African swine fever (ASF). Asia, the site of the most recent epidemics, could serve as a huge viral reservoir for the rest of the world given the severity of the damage, the huge swine industry, and the high volume of trade with other countries around the world. As the majority of ASF notifications in Asia today originate from pig farms, the movement of live pigs and associated pork products are considered critical control points for disease management. Particularly, small-scale or backyard farms with low biosecurity levels are considered major risk factors. Meanwhile, wild boars account for most notified cases in some countries and regions, which makes the epidemiological scenario different from that in other Asian countries. As such, the current epidemic situation and higher risk factors differ widely between these countries. A variety of studies on ASF control have been conducted and many valuable insights have been obtained in Asia; nevertheless, the overall picture of the epidemic is still unclear. The purpose of this review is to provide an accurate picture of the epidemic situation across Asia, focusing on each subregion to comprehensively explain the disease outbreak. The knowledge gained from the ASF epidemics experienced in Asia over the past 5 years would be useful for disease control in areas that are already infected, such as Europe, as well as for non-affected areas to address preventive measures. To this end, the review includes two aspects: a descriptive analytical review based on publicly available databases showing overall epidemic trends, and an individualized review at the subregional level based on the available literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satoshi Ito
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Nijiho Kawaguchi
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Division of Molecular Pathobiology, Hokkaido University International Institute for Zoonosis Control, Sapporo, Japan
| | - Jaime Bosch
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Cecilia Aguilar-Vega
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Jose Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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Martínez Avilés M, Bosch J, Ivorra B, Ramos ÁM, Ito S, Barasona JÁ, Sánchez-Vizcaíno JM. Epidemiological impacts of attenuated African swine fever virus circulating in wild boar populations. Res Vet Sci 2023; 162:104964. [PMID: 37531717 DOI: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104964] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Revised: 07/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/22/2023] [Indexed: 08/04/2023]
Abstract
African swine fever virus (ASFV) genotype II has been present in wild boar in the European Union since 2014. Control measures have reduced the incidence of the ASF, but highly virulent as well as attenuated ASFV strains continue to circulate. We present the intraherd epidemiological parameters of low and highly virulent ASFV in wild boar from experimental data, and for the first time, evaluate the impact of attenuated strain circulation through unique deterministic compartmental model simulations under various potential scenarios and hypotheses. Using an estimated PCR infectious threshold of TPCR = 36.4, we obtained several transmission parameters, like an Rx (experimental intraherd R0) value of 4.5. We also introduce two novel epidemiological parameters: infectious power and resistance power, which indicate the ability of animals to transmit the infection and the reduction in infectiousness after successive exposures to varying virulence strains, respectively. The presence of ASFV attenuated strains results in 4-17% of animals either remaining in a carrier state or becoming susceptible again when exposed to highly virulent ASFV for more than two years. The timing between exposures to viruses of different virulence also influences the percentage of animals that die or remain susceptible. The findings of this study can be utilized in epidemiological modelling and provide insight into important risk situations that should be considered for surveillance and future potential ASF vaccination strategies in wild boar.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Martínez Avilés
- Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (Animal Health Research Centre), CISA-INIA, CSIC. Madrid, 28130, Spain.
| | - Jaime Bosch
- Animal Health Health Surveillance Centre (VISAVET) and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), 28040, Spain
| | - Benjamin Ivorra
- Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute (IMI), Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), 28040, Spain
| | - Ángel Manuel Ramos
- Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute (IMI), Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), 28040, Spain
| | - Satoshi Ito
- Animal Health Health Surveillance Centre (VISAVET) and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), 28040, Spain
| | - José Ángel Barasona
- Animal Health Health Surveillance Centre (VISAVET) and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), 28040, Spain
| | - José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno
- Animal Health Health Surveillance Centre (VISAVET) and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), 28040, Spain
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Three Years of African Swine Fever in South Korea (2019–2021): A Scoping Review of Epidemiological Understanding. Transbound Emerg Dis 2023. [DOI: 10.1155/2023/4686980] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/25/2023]
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease in domestic pigs and wild boar that causes tremendous socioeconomic damage in related industries. In 2019, the virus emerged in South Korea, which has since reported 21 outbreaks in domestic pig farms and over 2,600 cases in wild boar. In this review, we synthesize the epidemiological knowledge generated on ASF in South Korea during the first three years of the epidemic (2019–2021). We searched four international and one domestic Korean database to identify scientific articles published since 2019 and describing ASF epidemiology in South Korea. Fourteen articles met our selection criteria and were used to synthesize the origin of ASF in South Korea, the risk factors of disease occurrence, the effectiveness of the surveillance and intervention measures that were implemented, and the viral transmission dynamics. We found that timely intensive surveillance and interventions on domestic pig farms successfully blocked between-farm transmission. However, in wild boar, the ASF virus has spread massively towards the south primarily along the mountain ranges despite ongoing fence erection and intensive depopulation efforts, endangering domestic pig farms across the country. The current devastating epidemic is suspected to be the consequence of an ASF control strategy unaligned to the epidemiological context, the challenging implementation of control measures hindered by topological complexities, and inappropriate biosecurity by field workers. To improve our understanding of ASF epidemiology in South Korea and enhance disease management, future research studies should specify the ecological drivers of disease distribution and spread and devise effective control strategies, particularly in relation to Korean topography, and the latent spread of the virus in wild boar populations. Additionally, research studies should explore the psychosocial factors for ASF management, and develop tools to support evidence-based decision-making for managing ASFV in wild boar.
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Ito S, Bosch J, Jeong H, Aguilar-Vega C, Park J, Martínez-Avilés M, Sánchez-Vizcaíno JM. Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea. Viruses 2022; 14:v14122779. [PMID: 36560783 PMCID: PMC9782897 DOI: 10.3390/v14122779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2022] [Revised: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R0) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R0 ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R0 ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Satoshi Ito
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
- Correspondence:
| | - Jaime Bosch
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Hyunkyu Jeong
- Dodram Pig Research Center, Daejeon 35377, Republic of Korea
| | - Cecilia Aguilar-Vega
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Jonghoon Park
- Independent Scholar, Daejeon 35377, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Jose Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno
- VISAVET Health Surveillance Center, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
- Department of Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
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Ryu HW, Tai JH. Object detection and tracking using a high-performance artificial intelligence-based 3D depth camera: towards early detection of African swine fever. J Vet Sci 2022; 23:e17. [PMID: 35088954 PMCID: PMC8799950 DOI: 10.4142/jvs.21252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2021] [Revised: 11/22/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Objectives Methods Results Conclusions
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Affiliation(s)
- Harry Wooseuk Ryu
- Research Institute for Veterinary Science, College of Veterinary Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
- Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1A1, Canada
| | - Joo Ho Tai
- Research Institute for Veterinary Science, College of Veterinary Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
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