Outbreak-related mumps vaccine effectiveness among a cohort of children and of young adults in Germany 2011

A heterogeneous continuous age-structured model of mumps with vaccine

In classical mumps models, individuals are generally assumed to be uniformly mixed (homogeneous), ignoring population heterogeneity (preference, activity, etc.). Age is the key to catching mixed patterns in developing mathematical models for mumps. A continuous heterogeneous age-structured model for mumps with vaccines has been developed in this paper. The stability of age-structured models is a difficult question. An explicit formula of R 0 was defined for the various mixing modes (isolation, proportional and heterogeneous mixing) with or without the vaccine. The results show that the endemic steady state is unique and locally stable if R 0 > 1 without any additional conditions. A number of numerical examples are given to support the theory.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children

BACKGROUND

Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) are serious diseases that can lead to serious complications, disability, and death. However, public debate over the safety of the trivalent MMR vaccine and the resultant drop in vaccination coverage in several countries persists, despite its almost universal use and accepted effectiveness. This is an update of a review published in 2005 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and long- and short-term adverse effects associated with the trivalent vaccine, containing measles, rubella, mumps strains (MMR), or concurrent administration of MMR vaccine and varicella vaccine (MMR+V), or tetravalent vaccine containing measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella strains (MMRV), given to children aged up to 15 years.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2019, Issue 5), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 2 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 2 May 2019), the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (2 May 2019), and ClinicalTrials.gov (2 May 2019).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), prospective and retrospective cohort studies (PCS/RCS), case-control studies (CCS), interrupted time-series (ITS) studies, case cross-over (CCO) studies, case-only ecological method (COEM) studies, self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies, person-time cohort (PTC) studies, and case-coverage design/screening methods (CCD/SM) studies, assessing any combined MMR or MMRV / MMR+V vaccine given in any dose, preparation or time schedule compared with no intervention or placebo, on healthy children up to 15 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We grouped studies for quantitative analysis according to study design, vaccine type (MMR, MMRV, MMR+V), virus strain, and study settings. Outcomes of interest were cases of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, and harms. Certainty of evidence of was rated using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 138 studies (23,480,668 participants). Fifty-one studies (10,248,159 children) assessed vaccine effectiveness and 87 studies (13,232,509 children) assessed the association between vaccines and a variety of harms. We included 74 new studies to this 2019 version of the review. Effectiveness Vaccine effectiveness in preventing measles was 95% after one dose (relative risk (RR) 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13; 7 cohort studies; 12,039 children; moderate certainty evidence) and 96% after two doses (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28; 5 cohort studies; 21,604 children; moderate certainty evidence). The effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts or preventing transmission to others the children were in contact with after one dose was 81% (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.89; 3 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence), after two doses 85% (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75; 3 cohort studies; 378 children; low certainty evidence), and after three doses was 96% (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.23; 2 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness (at least one dose) in preventing measles after exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50; 2 cohort studies; 283 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn containing MMR vaccine in preventing mumps was 72% after one dose (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.76; 6 cohort studies; 9915 children; moderate certainty evidence), 86% after two doses (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.35; 5 cohort studies; 7792 children; moderate certainty evidence). Effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.49; 3 cohort studies; 1036 children; moderate certainty evidence).  Vaccine effectiveness against rubella, using a vaccine with the BRD2 strain which is only used in China, is 89% (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.42; 1 cohort study; 1621 children; moderate certainty evidence).  Vaccine effectiveness against varicella (any severity) after two doses in children aged 11 to 22 months is 95% in a 10 years follow-up (rate ratio (rr) 0.05, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.08; 1 RCT; 2279 children; high certainty evidence). Safety There is evidence supporting an association between aseptic meningitis and MMR vaccines containing Urabe and Leningrad-Zagreb mumps strains, but no evidence supporting this association for MMR vaccines containing Jeryl Lynn mumps strains (rr 1.30, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.56; low certainty evidence). The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR/MMR+V/MMRV vaccines (Jeryl Lynn strain) and febrile seizures. Febrile seizures normally occur in 2% to 4% of healthy children at least once before the age of 5. The attributable risk febrile seizures vaccine-induced is estimated to be from 1 per 1700 to 1 per 1150 administered doses. The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopaenic purpura (ITP). However, the risk of ITP after vaccination is smaller than after natural infection with these viruses. Natural infection of ITP occur in 5 cases per 100,000 (1 case per 20,000) per year. The attributable risk is estimated about 1 case of ITP per 40,000 administered MMR doses. There is no evidence of an association between MMR immunisation and encephalitis or encephalopathy (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.61; 2 observational studies; 1,071,088 children; low certainty evidence), and autistic spectrum disorders (rate ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.01; 2 observational studies; 1,194,764 children; moderate certainty). There is insufficient evidence to determine the association between MMR immunisation and inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.16; 3 observational studies; 409 cases and 1416 controls; moderate certainty evidence). Additionally, there is no evidence supporting an association between MMR immunisation and cognitive delay, type 1 diabetes, asthma, dermatitis/eczema, hay fever, leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, gait disturbance, and bacterial or viral infections.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Existing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of MMR/MMRV vaccines support their use for mass immunisation. Campaigns aimed at global eradication should assess epidemiological and socioeconomic situations of the countries as well as the capacity to achieve high vaccination coverage. More evidence is needed to assess whether the protective effect of MMR/MMRV could wane with time since immunisation.

Vaccines for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella in children

BACKGROUND

Measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (chickenpox) are serious diseases that can lead to serious complications, disability, and death. However, public debate over the safety of the trivalent MMR vaccine and the resultant drop in vaccination coverage in several countries persists, despite its almost universal use and accepted effectiveness. This is an update of a review published in 2005 and updated in 2012.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness, safety, and long- and short-term adverse effects associated with the trivalent vaccine, containing measles, rubella, mumps strains (MMR), or concurrent administration of MMR vaccine and varicella vaccine (MMR+V), or tetravalent vaccine containing measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella strains (MMRV), given to children aged up to 15 years.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2019, Issue 5), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 2 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 2 May 2019), the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (2 May 2019), and ClinicalTrials.gov (2 May 2019).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), prospective and retrospective cohort studies (PCS/RCS), case-control studies (CCS), interrupted time-series (ITS) studies, case cross-over (CCO) studies, case-only ecological method (COEM) studies, self-controlled case series (SCCS) studies, person-time cohort (PTC) studies, and case-coverage design/screening methods (CCD/SM) studies, assessing any combined MMR or MMRV / MMR+V vaccine given in any dose, preparation or time schedule compared with no intervention or placebo, on healthy children up to 15 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the methodological quality of the included studies. We grouped studies for quantitative analysis according to study design, vaccine type (MMR, MMRV, MMR+V), virus strain, and study settings. Outcomes of interest were cases of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, and harms. Certainty of evidence of was rated using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 138 studies (23,480,668 participants). Fifty-one studies (10,248,159 children) assessed vaccine effectiveness and 87 studies (13,232,509 children) assessed the association between vaccines and a variety of harms. We included 74 new studies to this 2019 version of the review. Effectiveness Vaccine effectiveness in preventing measles was 95% after one dose (relative risk (RR) 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.13; 7 cohort studies; 12,039 children; moderate certainty evidence) and 96% after two doses (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.28; 5 cohort studies; 21,604 children; moderate certainty evidence). The effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts or preventing transmission to others the children were in contact with after one dose was 81% (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.89; 3 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence), after two doses 85% (RR 0.15, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.75; 3 cohort studies; 378 children; low certainty evidence), and after three doses was 96% (RR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.23; 2 cohort studies; 151 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness (at least one dose) in preventing measles after exposure (post-exposure prophylaxis) was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.50; 2 cohort studies; 283 children; low certainty evidence). The effectiveness of Jeryl Lynn containing MMR vaccine in preventing mumps was 72% after one dose (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.76; 6 cohort studies; 9915 children; moderate certainty evidence), 86% after two doses (RR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.35; 5 cohort studies; 7792 children; moderate certainty evidence). Effectiveness in preventing cases among household contacts was 74% (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.49; 3 cohort studies; 1036 children; moderate certainty evidence). Vaccine effectiveness against rubella is 89% (RR 0.11, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.42; 1 cohort study; 1621 children; moderate certainty evidence). Vaccine effectiveness against varicella (any severity) after two doses in children aged 11 to 22 months is 95% in a 10 years follow-up (rate ratio (rr) 0.05, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.08; 1 RCT; 2279 children; high certainty evidence). Safety There is evidence supporting an association between aseptic meningitis and MMR vaccines containing Urabe and Leningrad-Zagreb mumps strains, but no evidence supporting this association for MMR vaccines containing Jeryl Lynn mumps strains (rr 1.30, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.56; low certainty evidence). The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR/MMR+V/MMRV vaccines (Jeryl Lynn strain) and febrile seizures. Febrile seizures normally occur in 2% to 4% of healthy children at least once before the age of 5. The attributable risk febrile seizures vaccine-induced is estimated to be from 1 per 1700 to 1 per 1150 administered doses. The analyses provide evidence supporting an association between MMR vaccination and idiopathic thrombocytopaenic purpura (ITP). However, the risk of ITP after vaccination is smaller than after natural infection with these viruses. Natural infection of ITP occur in 5 cases per 100,000 (1 case per 20,000) per year. The attributable risk is estimated about 1 case of ITP per 40,000 administered MMR doses. There is no evidence of an association between MMR immunisation and encephalitis or encephalopathy (rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.61; 2 observational studies; 1,071,088 children; low certainty evidence), and autistic spectrum disorders (rate ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.01; 2 observational studies; 1,194,764 children; moderate certainty). There is insufficient evidence to determine the association between MMR immunisation and inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.42, 95% CI 0.93 to 2.16; 3 observational studies; 409 cases and 1416 controls; moderate certainty evidence). Additionally, there is no evidence supporting an association between MMR immunisation and cognitive delay, type 1 diabetes, asthma, dermatitis/eczema, hay fever, leukaemia, multiple sclerosis, gait disturbance, and bacterial or viral infections.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Existing evidence on the safety and effectiveness of MMR/MMRV vaccines support their use for mass immunisation. Campaigns aimed at global eradication should assess epidemiological and socioeconomic situations of the countries as well as the capacity to achieve high vaccination coverage. More evidence is needed to assess whether the protective effect of MMR/MMRV could wane with time since immunisation.

Immunogenicity and safety of the new MMR vaccine containing measles AIK-C, rubella Takahashi, and mumps RIT4385 strains in Japanese children: a randomized phase I/II clinical trial

Domestic measles, mumps, and rubella combined (MMR) vaccines were discontinued in 1993 in Japan because of the unexpected high incidence of aseptic meningitis. The introduction of an effective MMR vaccine with lower reactogenicity has been expected. A new MMR vaccine (JVC-001) was developed, using mumps RIT4385 strain in combination with Japanese measles AIK-C strain and rubella Takahashi strain (MR) vaccine. An open-label, randomized, phase I/II clinical study was conducted in 100 healthy Japanese children equally randomized to a JVC-001 group and an MR with monovalent mumps vaccine (Hoshino strain) group. Immunogenicity was assessed using a neutralization test (NT) for measles, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test for rubella, and NT and enzyme-linked immune-sorbent assay (ELISA) for mumps strain with different genotypes (genotype A, B, D and G) on Day 0 and Day 42–56. Solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AEs) were recorded. Seroconversion rates of measles and rubella were both 100%. JVC-001 induced higher immunogenicity against mumps virus genotype G with seroconversion rate of 77.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62.7–88.0%) compared to 65.3% (95% CI: 50.4–78.3%) in the control group. Geometric mean titer (GMT) was 12.5 (95% CI: 8.6–18.3) in the JVC-001 group and 7.1 (95% CI: 5.0–10.1) in the control group. JVC-001 also induced good immunogenicity against other genotypes (A, B and D). There was no apparent difference in the incidence of AEs between JVC-001 and the control groups. JVC-001 is safe and induces effective immunogenicity against measles, mumps, and rubella compared with the currently marketed vaccines in Japan.

Pre-vaccination IgG screening for mumps is the most cost-effectiveness immunization strategy among Health Care Workers

Health Care Workers (HCWs) have an increased risk of contracting contagious disease, including mumps. In January 2017 the Italian National Vaccine Prevention Plan 2017-2019, recommended the administration of a dose of MMR vaccine (Measles-Mumps-Rubella) to the Health Care Workers (HCWs) that, working in a risky environment, did not carry out the complete vaccination cycle of MMR or that are seronegative for at least one of the three vaccine viruses. In October of the same year, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended a third dose of a vaccine containing Mumps Virus for people previously vaccinated with 2 doses, belonging to a group or to a population at increased risk of acquire mumps in the event of an epidemic. We analyzed the clinical records and values of mumps-specific IgG antibodies of 3032 HCWs (mean age 32.80 ± 10.75 years), that underwent occupational health surveillance between January 1st 2017 and March 31th 2018. The HCWs were also screened for measles, rubella, mumps using serological methods. 13% (405) was seronegative for mumps, especially among HCWs between 18 and 36 years. We calculated the cost-effectiveness of two-doses and three-doses MMR vaccination. The cost of vaccination without screening was significantly more expensive (cost difference: 99 712 € and 184 996 €) both in case of two-dose and three-dose MMR vaccination respectively. Our study suggests that, in HCWs, the assessment of the mumps antibody titer before vaccination may be a useful complement to vaccination itself, because it is more accurate and cost-effective than direct immunization of unvaccinated subjects.

Dynamic transmission model of routine mumps vaccination in Japan

The mumps vaccine is not included in the national immunisation programme (NIP) of approximately 80 countries including Japan. To investigate the vaccine's cost-effectiveness, we developed a dynamic transmission model for routine one- and two-dose mumps vaccination programs in Japan. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with a current programme over a projected 50-year period. We created a Japanese population model and performed dynamic simulation to estimate the number of patients enrolled in the current programme, the routine one-dose programme, and the routine two-dose programme over the next 50 years using the Berkeley Madonna program. We estimated the medical and social costs of natural mumps infections and vaccinations to analyse cost-effectiveness. Finally, we performed a sensitivity analysis with parameters including vaccine cost, vaccine efficacy, medical costs per case, social costs per case, incidence of adverse events and discount rate. Base case analysis showed that both the one-dose and two-dose programmes predominated and that quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were saved, compared with the current programme. The medical costs, total cost and QALYs saved during the study period in the two-dose programme compared with the current programme were 217 billion JPY, 860 billion JPY and 184 779, respectively. The two-dose programme surpassed the one-dose programme throughout the study period. In all the scenarios of the sensitivity analysis, two-dose vaccination was better than the one-dose programme. This simulation confirmed that the routine two-dose vaccination programme was more cost-effective and QALY-saving than either the one-dose programme or the current programme. Because of the variability of the results between the various models, further simulations with different models should be conducted.

Mumps in the Vaccination Age: Global Epidemiology and the Situation in Germany

Vaccination against mumps virus (MuV) (mostly measles-mumps-rubella) is routinely performed in more than 120 countries and has resulted in a distinct decrease of mumps incidence. However, alteration of mumps epidemiology has been observed in several countries after implementation of the vaccine but is sparsely documented. Moreover, outbreaks have occurred after starting vaccination, even in highly vaccinated populations. In the former German Democratic Republic (DDR) mumps was a notifiable disease but vaccination against mumps was not implemented. In the five eastern German states forming the DDR until 1990, mumps was not notifiable until 2001. Except for the lack of reporting between 1990–2000, data from Eastern Germany allow analysis of mumps epidemiology after initiating the vaccination campaign. For the period from 2001 to 2016 the data show that the incidence of mumps dropped notably after initiating vaccines, and was accompanied by an increase of the median age of patients with mumps. In Eastern Germany, no outbreaks were noted, while several outbreaks occurred in Western Germany, possibly due to a lower vaccination rate. Further literature analysis revealed that outbreaks were facilitated by waning immunity and crowding. Nevertheless, although vaccination prevented infection, the course of illness, once infected, was sometimes more complicated. In comparison to non-vaccinated populations, high rates of complicated courses occurred and were marked by orchitis, due to higher age of mumps patients. Therefore, refusing vaccination against mumps increases the risk of severe courses when living in a vaccinated population.

Characteristics of a large mumps outbreak: Clinical severity, complications and association with vaccination status of mumps outbreak cases

In recent years, large mumps outbreaks, involving mainly adolescents and young adults, have re-emerged in several countries. We investigated a large mumps outbreak, evaluated the association between mumps clinical severity (complications, hospitalization) and vaccination status (number of previous measles, mumps and rubella - MMR vaccine doses), and assessed vaccine effectiveness. The first mumps cases emerged in an ultra-orthodox boys' school in Jerusalem and were epidemiologically linked to the mumps outbreak in New York. Overall, 3130 mumps cases were notified in the Jerusalem district during September 2009-August 2011 (median age 13y, 64% males). Most cases were reported from community clinics. Patients with systemic symptoms and/or complications (419, 13.4%) were either hospitalized (n = 79) or treated in an emergency medical center (n = 340). The main complications included orchitis (3.8% males> age 12y) and meningoencephalitis (0.5%). The mumps virus genotype was G5. The distribution of previous MMR vaccine doses (n = 0,1,2) was: 24.8%, 28.3% and 46.9%, respectively. The number of previous vaccine doses was inversely associated with clinical severity. Adjusted values for MMR vaccine effectiveness against complications were estimated as 52.1% (95% CI -4 -78%) for one vaccine dose and 62.7% (95% CI 25.7-81.3%) for 2 doses. The outbreak was characterized by predominance of male students; the majority of whom had been previously vaccinated. The reported complication rate was relatively low. Vaccination status was associated with age and disease severity. The combination of limited mumps vaccine effectiveness and the specific school setting (dense learning and living conditions) probably contributed to the disease spread.

Laboratory-based investigation of suspected mumps cases submitted to the German National Reference Centre for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella, 2008 to 2013

From 2008 to 2013, sample sets from 534 patients displaying clinical symptoms of mumps were submitted to the German Reference Centre for Measles, Mumps and Rubella. Mumps virus infection was confirmed in 216 cases (40%) by PCR and/or serology. Confirmed cases were more frequently seen in male than in female patients (128 vs. 81); the age group predominantly affected was 15 to 29 years old (65%, median age: 26.4 years). The majority of the confirmed cases had a remote history of vaccination with one or two doses of a mumps-containing vaccine (69%). Our results indicate that mumps virus caused two outbreaks in Bavaria in 2008 and 2010/2011 and a third one in Lower Saxony in 2011. Mumps virus genotype G was preponderantly detected from 2008 to 2013. For 107 of the 216 patients with a confirmed mumps infection, we correlated the results from PCR and serology. PCR detected cases during the first week after onset of symptoms (74% positive results). PCR worked best with throat swabs and oral fluids (61% and 60% positive results, respectively). IgM was more reliable with a longer time after onset of symptoms (67%), but indirect IgM serology was of insufficient sensitivity for vaccinated mumps cases (30%); the IgM μ-capture assay detected more cases in this group. Mumps virus is able to initiate an infection in vaccinated patients (secondary vaccine failure, SVF) although it is unclear to what extent. Since SVF does occur in highly vaccinated populations and IgM will not increase to detectable levels in all SVF patients, we strongly recommend using PCR plus serology tests to avoid false-negative diagnoses in vaccinated individuals with clinical signs of mumps.

[Clinical, epidemiological and etiological studies of adult aseptic meningitis: Report of 13 cases with mumps meningitis]

We experienced 13 cases (29.8 ± 7.0 years) of mumps meningitis and 365 cases of adult aseptic meningitis during 11 years from 2004 to 2014. A small epidemic of mumps occurred for 3-4 years, and the incidence rate of adult mumps meningitis coincided with the epidemic without seasonal fluctuation. Parotitis was observed in 8 of the 13 mumps meningitis patients (61.5%) and orchitis in 2 of 7 male patients (28.6%). There were no differences in clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, and outcome between patients with adult mumps meningitis and those with echovirus 9 meningitis (9 patients), except for the low frequency of nausea/vomiting and a high percentage of mononuclear cells of the cerebrospinal fluid in those with mumps. Eight patients had contact with persons with mumps before the symptomatic stage of meningitis. Only one patient had received mumps vaccination in childhood. On the basis of the values of the anti-mumps IgM and IgG antibodies, we speculated primary infection and the re-infection of mumps in 6 and 2 patients, respectively. Moreover, second vaccine failure was suggested in the vaccinated patient.