Survival and predictors of mortality among human immunodeficiency virus patients on anti-retroviral treatment at Jinka Hospital, South Omo, Ethiopia: a six years retrospective cohort study

Highly active antiretroviral therapy is necessary but not sufficient. A systematic review and meta-analysis of mortality incidence rates and predictors among HIV-infected adults receiving treatment in Ethiopia, a surrogate study for resource-poor settings

BACKGROUND

Owing to the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the trajectory of mortality and morbidity associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has significantly decreased in developed countries. However, this remains a formidable public health challenge for people living with HIV in resource-poor settings. This study was undertaken to determine the pooled person-time incidence rate of mortality, analyze the trend, and identify predictors of survival among HIV-infected adults receiving HAART.

METHODS

Quantitative studies were searched in PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, and Web of Science. The Joana Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of the included articles. The data were analyzed using the random-effects Dersimonian-Laird model.

RESULTS

Data abstracted from 35 articles involving 39,988 subjects were analyzed. The pooled person-time incidence rate of mortality (all-cause) was 4.25 ([95% uncertainty interval (UI), 3.65 to 4.85]) per 100 person-years of observations. Predictors of mortality were patients aged ≥ 45 years (hazard ratio (HR), 1.70 [95% UI,1.10 to 2.63]), being female (HR, 0.82 [95% UI, 0.70 to 0.96]), history of substance use (HR, 3.10 [95% UI, 1.31 to 7.32]), HIV positive status non disclosure (HR, 3.10 [95% UI,1.31 to 7.32]), cluster of differentiation 4 + T cell - count < 200 cells/mm3 (HR, 3.23 [95% UI, [2.29 to 4.75]), anemia (HR, 2.63 [95% UI, 1.32 to 5.22]), World Health Organisation classified HIV clinical stages III and IV (HR, 3.02 [95% UI, 2.29 to 3.99]), undernutrition (HR, 2.24 [95% UI, 1.61 to 3.12]), opportunistic infections (HR, 1.89 [95% UI, 1.23 to 2.91]), tuberculosis coinfection (HR, 3.34 [95% UI, 2.33 to 4.81]),bedridden or ambulatory (HR,3.30 [95% UI, 2.29 to 4.75]), poor treatment adherence (HR, 3.37 [95% UI,1.83 to 6.22]), and antiretroviral drug toxicity (HR, 2.60 [95% UI, 1.82 to 3.71]).

CONCLUSION

Despite the early introduction of HAART in Ethiopia, since 2003, the mortality rate has remained high. Therefore, guideline-directed intervention of identified risk factors should be in place to improve overall prognosis and increase quality-adjusted life years.

Incidence rate of mortality and its predictors among tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among HIV-infected adults and children globally. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia.

Methods

Extensive database searching was done via PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Google from the time of idea conception on March 1, 2023, to the last search via Google on March 31, 2023. A meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to determine the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients. Heterogeneity was handled using subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis.

Results

Out of 2,100 records, 18 articles were included, with 26,291 total patients. The pooled incidence rate of mortality among TB/HIV patients was 12.49 (95% CI: 9.24-15.74) per 100 person-years observation (PYO); I2 = 96.9%. The mortality rate among children and adults was 5.10 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 2.15-8.01; I2 = 84.6%) and 15.78 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 10.84-20.73; I2 = 97.7%), respectively. Age ≥ 45 (pooled hazard ratios (PHR) 2.58, 95% CI: 2.00- 3.31), unemployed (PHR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.37-3.46), not HIV-disclosed (PHR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.65-4.70), bedridden (PHR 5.89, 95% CI: 3.43-10.12), OI (PHR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.16-5.66), WHO stage IV (PHR 3.16, 95% CI: 2.18-4.58), BMI < 18.5 (PHR 4.11, 95% CI: 2.28-7.40), anemia (PHR 4.43, 95% CI: 2.73-7.18), EPTB 5.78, 95% CI: 2.61-12.78 significantly affected the mortality. The effect of TB on mortality was 1.95 times higher (PHR 1.95, 95% CI: 1.19-3.20; I2 = 0) than in TB-free individuals.

Conclusions

The mortality rate among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia was higher compared with many African countries. Many clinical factors were identified as significant risk factors for mortality. Therefore, TB/HIV program managers and clinicians need to design an intervention early.

Survival rate and predictors of mortality among TB/HIV co-infected adult patients: retrospective cohort study

Nowadays, Tuberculosis remains the major cause of HIV-associated mortality, which accounts for 1 out of every 5 HIV-related mortality worldwide. This study aimed to determine the survival rate and predictors of mortality among TB/HIV co-infected patients. An institution-based retrospective cohort study was undertaken on adult TB/HIV co-infected individuals between 1st February 2014 and 30th January 2022 at Mettu Karl Referral Hospital. A Cox regression model was used to identify predictors of survival time to death among TB/HIV co-infected patients. This study comprised 402 TB and HIV co-infected adult patients. Among these, 84 (20.9%) died, and 318 (79.1%) were censored. The study subjects have been followed up for 6920 person-months with an overall median survival time of 17.6 months. The overall incidence rate was 12.1 per 1000 person months [95% CI: 9.77-14.98]. The results of a multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that being at an older age, urban residence, WHO clinical stage II & IV, CD4 count of ≥ 200 cells/mm³, bedridden functional status, using INH, and using CPT were associated with the survival time of TB and HIV co-infected patients at a significance level of alpha = 0.05. This retrospective study found that high mortality of TB/HIV co-infected patients occurred in the earlier months of treatment initiation. Close monitoring of patients with low CD4, who do not utilize CPT, who are in advanced WHO stages, and who have poor functional levels can help them improve their health and live longer.

Effect of active tuberculosis on the survival of HIV-infected adult patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy at public hospitals of Eastern Ethiopia: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In resource-limited countries such as Ethiopia, tuberculosis is the major cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with the human immunodeficiency virus. In the era of antiretroviral therapy, the effect of tuberculosis on the survival of patients who are living with human immunodeficiency virus has been poorly understood in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the effect of active tuberculosis on the survival of HIV-infected adult patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy in public hospitals in Eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 566 participants from January 1, 2014, to June 30, 2018. The collected data were entered into EpiData version 3.1 before being exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the effect of active tuberculosis on the survival of HIV-infected adult patients who initiated antiretroviral therapy, and a p-value less than 0.05 and a 95% confidence level were used to declare statistical significance.

RESULT

Of the 566 patients included in the study, 76 died. The mortality rate was 11.04 per 100 person-years in tuberculosis co-infected patients, while it was 2.52 per 100 person-years in non-tuberculosis co-infected patients. The patients with tuberculosis co-infection had a 2.19 times higher hazard of death (AHR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.17, 4.12) compared to those without tuberculosis. Advanced clinical stage, low CD4+ cell count, and previous episodes of an opportunistic infection other than tuberculosis were found to be independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Co-infection with tuberculosis at antiretroviral therapy initiation increases the hazard of death approximately two-fold. Hence, we recommend key organizations to enhance the region's collaborative interventional and preventative strategies for TB and HIV.

Survival probability and factors associated with time to loss to follow-up and mortality among patients on antiretroviral treatment in central Kenya

BACKGROUND

Retention of patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains a challenge especially in the setting of rapid expansion of HIV services. Retention in care remains vital to the HIV care continuum, and has been associated with viral suppression and improved survival. This study aimed to ascertain survival rates, time to loss to follow-up (LTFU) or mortality events and factors associated with time to LTFU or mortality among patients enrolled on antiretroviral therapy at health facilities in central Kenya.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study among patients initiated on ART between 2004 and 2012 in central Kenya. Demographic characteristics, clinical characteristics and outcomes data were analyzed using Stata version 15.1. Competing risks regression analysis and cummulative incidence functions were used to estimate survival.

RESULTS

A total of 31,346 patients were included, of whom 65.6% were female, 76.0% were aged between 20 and 50 years old, and 38.9% were diagnosed at WHO stage III. At 36 months, overall retention was 68.8%, LTFU was 27.1%, and mortality was 4.1%. The total person-years of follow up was 74,986. The incidence rate of LTFU was 9.99 per 100 person years for a total of 9383.25 person-years of follow up. The mortality rate was 1.25 per 100 person years for a total of 875.5 person-years among those who died. The median time to LTFU was 11 months (IQR 3-22) while median time to death was 3 months (IQR 0-13). Men, unmarried patients, patients presenting with advanced HIV, not on TB treatment, and enrolled into the HIV program in later cohorts, had a shorter time to mortality and LTFU.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated evidence of scale-up of HIV treatment programs in central Kenya. While most patients were enrolled at an advanced WHO clinical stage, overall 36-month mortality remained low, but occurred earlier during follow-up. Cohort LTFU at 36-months reduced in later years with the losses occurring within the 1st year of follow-up. Predictors of early mortality and LTFU included being male, single, separated or divorced, advanced WHO clinical stage, and among patients not on TB treatment.

Early mortality in a cohort of people living with HIV in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2004-2015: a persisting problem

Background

Global mortality from AIDS-related diseases has been declining since 2005, resulting primarily from the widespread use and early initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. Despite the significant improvements, high rates of early mortality, usually defined as that occurring within the 1st year of entry to care, have been observed, especially in resource-limited settings. This analysis draws upon data from an observational cohort of people with HIV (PWH) followed at a reference center for HIV/AIDS care and research in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to identify the pattern and factors associated with early mortality.

Methods

The study population includes PWH aged 18 or older followed at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases Evandro Chagas who were enrolled between 2004 and 2015. The primary outcome was early mortality, defined as deaths occurring within 1 year of inclusion in the cohort, considering two follow-up periods: 0 to 90 days (very early mortality) and 91 to 365 days (early mortality). Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the variables associated with the hazard of very early and early mortality.

Results

Overall, 3879 participants contributed with 3616.4 person-years of follow-up. Of 220 deaths, 132 happened in the first 90 days and 88 between 91 and 365 days. Very early mortality rate ratios (MRR) show no statistically significant temporal differences between the periods 2004–2006 to 2013–2015. In contrast, for early mortality, a statistically significant decreasing trend was observed: mortality rates in the periods 2004–2006 (MR = 5.5; 95% CI 3.9–7.8) and 2007–2009 (MR = 3.9; 95% CI 2.7–5.7) were approximately four and three-fold higher when compared to 2013–2015 (MR = 1.4; 95% CI 0.7–2.7). Low CD4 count and prior AIDS-defining illness were strongly associated with higher hazard ratios of death, especially when considering very early mortality.

Conclusions

The present study shows an excess of mortality in the 1st year of follow-up with no changes in the mortality rates within 90 days among PWH from Rio de Janeiro. We note the significant impact of initiating treatment with immunosuppression, as evidenced by the increased risk of death among those with low CD4 cell count and with AIDS-defining illnesses.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07451-x.

Predictors of Survival Time Among HIV-Infected Adults After Initiating Anti-Retroviral Therapy in Kombolcha Town: A 5-Year Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) enhances the survival of HIV-infected patients by reducing viral load and increasing CD4. As CD4 count increases, patients are more protected against opportunistic infections. In developing countries including Ethiopia, there were limited studies about the survival benefit of ART particularly no study in Kombolcha Town. Thus, this study was aimed to address the gap.

Methods

A hospital-based retrospective cohort study was employed in Kombolcha town among 510 patients’ records from January 2015 to December 2019. A systematic random sampling technique was used to select patient records. The collected data were checked, coded, and entered into Epidata version 4.6 and exported to Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 26 for data cleaning and analysis. Kaplan–Meier was used to estimate the probability of category of each predictor and a log rank test was used to compare survival curves. Bivariate and multivariate Cox-regression were employed using a 95% CI and variables with p-value <0.05 were declared as predictors of poor survival time.

Results

In this cohort, out of 510 HIV-infected patients, 39 (7.65%) were died, and 471 (92.35%) were censored. Fair drug adherence (AHR=6.88, 95% CI: 4.31–24.04), Poor drug adherence (AHR=9.58, 95% CI: 8.72–30.97), CD4 count <50 cell/µL (AHR=9.38, 95% CI: 1.48–59.31), CD4 count 50–99 cell/µL (AHR=9.67, 95% CI: 1.80–51.73), bedridden (AHR=9.5, 95% CI: 4.49–18.66), opportunistic infections (AHR=4.58, 95% CI: 1.20–5.65), weight <60kg (AHR=2.48, 95% CI:1.59, 10.38), WHO stage III (AHR=3.56, 95% CI: 1.71–17.89), WHO stage IV (AHR=4.42, 95% CI:1.75–25.93) were predictors of poor survival time.

Conclusion

The Kaplan–Meier result showed that the estimated median survival time of patients after ART initiation in Kombolcha town was higher (32 months) as compared to other studies. Poor drug adherence, WHO stage III & IV, Lower baseline CD4 count, presence of opportunistic infections, weight <60kg, and being bedridden were predictors of poor survival time. Thus, early initiation of ART ought to be encouraged among HIV-infected patients and good patient counseling on the level of adherence should be strengthened.

Predictors of Mortality Among Adult HIV-Infected Patients Taking Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) in Harari Hospitals, Ethiopia

Introduction

Despite the world has made efforts, the reduction of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related mortality by giving antiretroviral therapy (ART), still HIV/AIDS is killing people while they are on ART. However, the current progress and associated factors of mortality among ART-taking patients are hardly available. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine predictors of mortality among HIV-infected adult patients after starting antiretroviral therapy in Harar Hospitals, Harari region, Ethiopia.

Methods

A facility-based retrospective cohort study was employed with randomly selected 610 medical records of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to identify predictors of mortality using multivariate Cox proportional hazard model.

Results

Among 610 medical records analyzed with a total of 1410.7 follow-up years, 67 (11%) deaths were found giving an overall mortality rate of 4.75 per 100 person-years. The independent predictor of mortality identified was ambulatory/bedridden functional status (AHR=2.48; 95% CI: 1.43-4.28), taking other than Tenofovir-based regimen (AHR=2.5,95% CI; 1.04-5.94), not taking isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) (AHR=2.8; 95% CI: 1.61,4.71), hemoglobin <11g/dl (AHR=3.33,95% CI 1.94-5.69), and poor adherence to ART (AHR= 3.62, 95% CI: 1.87-7.0).

Conclusion

This study demonstrated that poor ART adherence, not taking IPT, and initiating ART with a non-Tenofovir-based regimen and low hemoglobin count were significantly associated with the risk of death. For this reason, addressing these all significant predictors is essential to prevent early death.

Incidence and predictors of mortality within the first year of antiretroviral therapy initiation at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: A retrospective follow up study

BACKGROUND

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the most fatal infectious diseases in the world, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Even though Antiretroviral therapy (ART) significantly decreases mortality overall, death rates are still highest especially in the first year of ART initiation.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence and predictors of mortality within the first year of ART initiation among adults on ART at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among 514 newly enrolled adults to ART from 2014 to 2018 at Debre-Markos Referral Hospital. Patients' chart number was selected from the computer using a simple random sampling technique. Data were entered into EPI- INFO 7.2.2.6 and analyzed using Stata 14.0. The mortality rate within the first year was computed and described using frequency tables. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models were fitted to show predictors of early mortality.

RESULTS

Out of 494 patient records included in the analysis, a total of 54 deaths were recorded within one year follow-up period. The overall mortality rate within 398.37 person years (PY) was 13.56 deaths/100 PY with the higher rate observed within the first three months. After adjustment, rural residence (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 1.97; 95% CI: 1.05-3.71), ≥ 6 months pre-ART duration (AHR = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.24-3.79), ambulatory or bedridden functional status at enrolment (AHR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.01-4.74), and didn't take Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) during follow-up (AHR = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.04-3.41) were associated with early mortality of adults on ART.

CONCLUSION

Mortality within the first year of ART initiation was high and rural residence, longer pre-Art duration, ambulatory or bedridden functional status and didn't take CPT during follow-up were found to be independent predictors. Hence, giving special attention for patients from rural area and provision of CPT is crucial to reduce mortality.

Predictors of mortality rate among adult HIV-positive patients on antiretroviral therapy in Metema Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Background

Globally Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is an ongoing public health issue associated with high morbidity and mortality. Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy. However, the incidence and predictors of mortality in border areas like Metema were not investigated. This study aimed to assess predictors of mortality rate among adult HIV-positive patients on antiretroviral therapy at Metema Hospital.

Methods

Retrospective follow-up study was employed among ART patients from January 1, 2013, to December 30, 2018. Data were entered in Epi-data 3.1 and exported to STATA 14 for analysis. Kaplan–Meier and Log-Rank test was used to compare survival differences among categories of different variables. In bi-variable analysis p-values < 0.20 were entered into a multivariable analysis. Multivariate Weibull model was used to measure the risk of death and identify the significant predictors of death. Variables that were statistically significant at p-value < 0.05 were concluded as predictors of mortality.

Result

A total of 542 study participants were included. The overall incidence rate was 6.7 (95% CI: 5.4–8.4) deaths per 100 person-years of observation. Being male (HR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.24–4.62), STAGE IV (HR = 5.64; 95% CI: 2.53–12.56), stage III (HR = 3.31; 95% CI: 1.35–8.10), TB-coinfection (HR = 3.71; 95% CI: 1.59–8.64), low hemoglobin (HR = 4.14; 95% CI: 2.18–7.86), BMI ≤ 15.4 kg/m² (HR = 2.45; 95% CI: 1.17–5.10) and viral load > 1000 copy/ml (HR = 6.70; 95% CI: 3.4–13.22) were found to be a significant predictor for mortality among HIV patients on ART treatment.

Conclusion

The incidence of death was high. Being male, viral load, those with advanced STAGE (III & IV), TB co-infected, low BMI, and low hemoglobin were at a higher risk of mortality. Special attention should be given to male patients and high public interventions needed among HIV patients on ART to reduce the mortality rate.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12981-021-00353-z.

Survival and Prognostic Factors of HIV-positive Patients after Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation at a Malaysian Referral Hospital

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and significantly improved survival rates, but there is lack of such survival data from Malaysia.

Objective

The objective was to determine the survival rates and prognostic factors of survival in HIV-infected adults treated with ART in Malaysia.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective cohort study considered all HIV-positive adult patients registered in Sungai Buloh Hospital, a major referral center in Malaysia, between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2016. Then, patients were selected through a systematic sampling method. Demographic, clinical, and treatment data were extracted from electronic medical records. Person-years at risk and incidence of mortality rate per 100 person-years were calculated. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log-rank test were used to compare the overall survival rates. Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to determine the prognostic factors for survival.

Results

A total of 339 patients were included. The estimated overall survival rates were 93.8%, 90.4%, 84.9%, and 72.8% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively, from ART initiation. The results of multiple Cox proportional hazard regression indicated that anemic patients were at a 3.76 times higher risk of mortality (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.97-7.18; P < 0.001). The hazard risk was 2.09 times higher for HIV patients co-infected with tuberculosis (95% CI: 1.10, 3.96; P = 0.024).

Conclusion

The overall survival rates among HIV-infected adults in this study are higher than that from low-income countries but lower than that from high-income countries. Low baseline hemoglobin levels of <11 g/dL and tuberculosis co-infection were strong prognostic factors for survival.

Survival and Predictors of Mortality Among HIV Positive Adult Patients on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Public Hospitals of Kambata Tambaro Zone, Southern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Human Immune Deficiency Virus (HIV) infection remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia, despite test and treat all HIV positives are adopted, a significant number of people eligible for Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART) show up with advanced disease and at lower CD4 count. There is currently paucity of studies conducted that investigate predictors of mortality among adults on ART in the study area.

Objective

To explore Survival and predictors of mortality among adult HIV-positive patients on ART in Kambata Tambaro Zone, Ethiopia, from August 2013 to February 2019.

Methods

A health facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among records of 467 adult HIV-positive patients on ART selected using simple random sampling. Data were collected using standardized abstraction tool. Kaplan–Meier, Log rank tests and Cox regression model was applied to estimate survival status and identify predictors of mortality, respectively.

Results

Of the total 467 study subjects, 59 (12.63%) of them died in the study period. The median follow-up time of the cohort was 40.1 (IQR=13.6–59.0) months. The mortality rate of the cohort was 4.1 per 100 PYO. The overall survival probability of the cohort was 84.38% (95 CI=80.08–87.82) at 66 months. Bedridden function AHR=3.0 (95% CI, 1.44–6.64), Fair-adherence AHR=3.3 (95% CI, 1.50–7.07), Poor-adherence AHR=3.8 (95% CI, 1.88–7.96), presence of OIs AHR=4.2 (95% CI, 1.98–8.50), Late diagnosis (CD4 count >/=350) AHR=3.0 (95% CI, 1.91–6.42) and Immunologic failure AHR=3.5 (95% CI, 1.41–6.29) were independent predictors of time to death in Cox-Regression.

Conclusion

Late Diagnosis, poor adherence, being bedridden, having OI and Immunologic failure were independently associated with time to death. Early diagnosis to start treatment and emphasizing on close follow-up care to improve treatment adherence should be given special emphasis.

Rate and Predictors of Mortality Among Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, North West Ethiopia

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a chronic communicable disease with devastating global socio-economic, and political impacts commonly affecting the young and early adult populations. Ethiopia is doing well in controlling HIV/AIDS epidemic infection among African countries. This study set out to determine the mortality rate and its predictors among adults on antiretroviral therapy at Debre Markos Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted from February to March 2018. A computer-generated simple random sample selected 480 cards of patients on antiretroviral therapy who were enrolled between February 2010 to January 2018. Epi-data Version 4.2 software was used for data entry and SPSS Version 25 for management and analysis. An adjusted hazard rate with a 95% confidence interval was used to identify significant predictors of mortality.

Results

The mortality rate was about 3.9 per 100 person-years. Cotrimoxazole prophylactic therapy (AHR: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.58, 5.70), being single (AHR: 2.37: 95% CI: 1.15, 4.87), non-disclosed status (AHR: 7.77; 95% CI: 3.76, 16.06), anemia (AHR: 2.16; 95% CI: 1.14, 4.09), bedridden (AHR: 6.11; 95% CI: 2.42, 15.41) or ambulatory (AHR: 2.16; 95%: 1.04, 4.51), presence of opportunistic infections (OIs) (AHR: 5.02; 95% CI: 1.70, 14.83) and tuberculosis (TB) co-infection (AHR: 5.57; 95% CI: 2.23, 13.88) were the significant predictors.

Conclusion and Recommendation

This study had a high mortality rate. Being single, bedridden, TB coinfection, anemia, and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis were the predictors of mortality. Therefore, psychological support and close follow-up for single, non-disclosed, non-adherent patients and early detection and treatment of anemia, tuberculosis, and OIs to reduce mortality is recommended.

Statistical Joint Modeling for Predicting the Association of CD4 Measurement and Time to Death of People Living with HIV Who Enrolled in ART, Southwest Ethiopia

Background

In much epidemiological HIV research, patients are often followed over a period of time to predict their survival on the basis of repeatedly measured CD4 status. To predict survival, statistical models of the association between mortality and longitudinal CD4 measurement have been conducted widely using time-varying Cox models. However, in the presence of repeated measure, this approach leads to biased estimates. In view of the limitation of time-varying Cox models, in the present study, we considered joint modeling to predict the association of longitudinal CD4 measurement and time to death among patients initiated on ART.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was employed for five years from 2009 to 2014 on a randomly selected 358 samples. Data were collected from patients’ ART and pre-ART follow-up registration book, database and other clinical records. Data were analyzed using joint latent class modeling of repeated CD4 measurement and time-to-event (HIV death).

Results

We have studied a total of 358 HIV-positive patients. The median and interquartile ranges of the age of patients were 30.31 years and 13.82, respectively. Males constitute the larger proportion, 51.68%. The square root of CD4 count has declined on average over time. This has been indicated with the negative sign of the coefficient for the time effect. The deterioration of health of individuals is severe in class 1, it has been observed with a worse decline in CD4 cell counts over time in this class than other classes (β= −0.488). Women had a larger risk rate than men (β=−2.475, p-value=0.013). Besides, the CD4 counts measurement of patients has been revealed to decrease as age increases (β= −0.016, p=0.008).

Conclusion

The finding indicated that the square root CD4 cell measurement dropped over time in the three classes. This clearly suggested deterioration in the health of individuals. Women were found to have a higher hazard rate than men.

Incidence of Mortality and Its Predictors Among HIV Positive Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Despite the accessibility and higher coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Ethiopia also shares the high burden of HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence of mortality and its predictors among adult HIV patients on ART in the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, northwest Ethiopia.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective follow-up study was conducted from January 2015 to January 2019 at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A total of 475 patients who were on follow-up in this Hospital were included. The Cox proportional hazard model was fitted to assess the predictors of mortality. Both crude and adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) with their 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to show the strength of association. In multivariable analysis, variables with a P-value <0.05 were considered as statistically significant predictors of mortality.

Results

In this study, a total of 45 (9.5%) patients died with an incidence rate of 5.3 [95% CI: 3.4–7.1] per 100 person-years of observation. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the last known WHO stage III/IV [AHR= 15.02; 95% CI: 5.79–38.92], being anemic at baseline [AHR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.02–4.78], and fair last known adherence level [AHR = 3.29; 95% CI: 1.39–7.78] were found to be significant predictors of mortality.

Conclusion

In this study, the incidence of mortality was relatively high. The rate of mortality may be minimized by paying particular attention to individuals with advanced WHO stage, anemia at the baseline, and those with adherence problems.

Survival and Predictors of Mortality Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Initiating Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Debre-Berhan Referral Hospital, Amhara, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study

Background

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome is one of the most destructive epidemics the world has ever witnessed. An estimated 36.9 million people were living with HIV in 2017. HIV/AIDS is the major contributing factor for morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Although different studies on survival and predictors of mortality among HIV/AIDS patients after initiation of antiretroviral therapy were conducted, there are inconsistencies in the findings of those studies. Furthermore, to the authors’ knowledge, there was a dearth of studies conducted in this study area.

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to assess the survival and predictors of mortality among adult patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy at Debre Berhan Referral Hospital, North Showa, Amhara, Ethiopia.

Patients and Methods

An institution-based retrospective study was conducted among the medical records of 447 study subjects’ selected using simple random sampling from January 1t, 2013 to December 30, 2018. The data was collected using a structured data abstraction checklist and analyzed using Kaplan–Meier statistics and Cox regression models.

Results

Among 447 adult patients, 54 patients (12.1%) had died, giving a crude death rate of 4.18 per 100 person years (95% CI=3.20–5.45). The overall estimated survival rate after initiation of antiretroviral therapy was 81.7% (95% CI=75.36–86.54%) at 72 months of follow-up. The independent predictors of mortality were clinical stage IV (HR=15.6, 95% CI=6.609–36.948), baseline opportunistic infections (HR=1.86, 95% CI=1.048–3.330), baseline Hgb<10 mg/dL (HR=4.655, 95% CI=2.253–9.619), baseline CD4<200 cells/µL (HR=4.71, 95% CI=2.275–9.751), the presence of comorbidity (HR=2.56 95% CI=1.391–4.740), being widowed (HR=3.475, 95% CI=1.412–8.550), and bedridden functional status (HR=3.069, 95% CI=1.111–8.480).

Conclusion

Patients with opportunistic infections, advanced clinical stage disease, bedridden functional status, baseline Hgb<10 mg/dL, baseline CD4<200 cells/µL, and comorbidity should be given special care.

Epidemiology of survival pattern and its predictors among HIV positive patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy in Southern Ethiopia public health facilities: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In resource poor countries like Ethiopia, little is known about the survival of patients treated with antiretroviral therapy which depends on different factors. Evidence shows that mortality has been high particularly in the first 3 to 6 months of initiating antiretroviral therapy. Hence, the study aimed to assess the Epidemiology of survival pattern and its determinants among adult HIV positive patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study was employed among a total of 455 records of patients who were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy from September 2006 to August 2010. Socio-demographic, clinical, immunological, behavioral, and date of antiretroviral treatment initiation including date of follow up status were extracted. Significant predictor variables were identified by fitting Cox's proportional hazard model using a backward stepwise method and statistical significance variables were declared based on a p-value less than 0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 455 adult HIV/AIDS patients on ART contributed to 886.05-person-year of observation and 65.7% were alive and on treatment, 17.1% were lost to follow up and 7.5% died. The study showed that the estimated mortality was 4.4%, 5.3%, 6.1%, 7%, 7.5% and 7.5% at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months of follow up period, respectively. The overall incidence rate of mortality was 4.2 per 100 person-years of observation. In multivariate analysis age 45 and above (AHR: 3.72, 95% CI 1.21-11.4), bedridden functional status (AHR: 17.4, 95% CI 6.21-48.79), poor ART drug adherence (AHR: 4.52,95% CI 2.05-9.96), Tuberculosis co-infection (AHR: 4.1, 95% CI 1.84-9.13), non-disclosure (AHR: 4.9, 95% CI 1.82-12.89) and severe anemia (AHR: 5.1, 95% CI 1.81-14.21) were found predictors.

CONCLUSION

Patients with older age, tuberculosis infection, bedridden patients and severe anemia were predictors. Tracing poorly adhered patients and giving drug counseling as well as encouraging them for disclosure to their families is crucial to improve their survival.

Factors Affecting Survival Rates Among Adult TB/HIV Co-Infected Patients in Mizan Tepi University Teaching Hospital, South West Ethiopia

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection was responsible for approximately 300,000 deaths worldwide in 2017. Despite this burden of death, factors associated with the survival of TB-HIV co-infected patients were not adequately studied; and some of the existing evidences are inconsistent. This study was aimed to identify factors associated with survival rates of TB/HIV co-infected patients.

Methods

The current study was a retrospective analysis of data extracted from 364 TB/HIV co-infected patients treated at Mizan Tepi University Teaching Hospital, Ethiopia, during the years 2007-2017. Time to event was measured from the date of TB treatment initiation till death, loss to follow-up or completion of treatment. Since the event was death, patients lost from follow-up and those on follow-up were considered as censored. Using Cox-regression, the 95% CI of hazard ratio (HR) and P-value <0.05 were used to identify the significant variables in multivariable analysis.

Results

All the 364 patients were followed up for 1654 person-months. There were 83 (22.8%) deaths and the majority, 38 (45.8%), were occurring within the first two months of anti-TB treatment initiation. The overall incidence rate and median survival time were 5.02 per 100 person-months (95% CI: 4.05, 6.22) and 10 months, respectively. Not using CPT (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] =1.72; P=0.023), bedridden functional status (AHR=2.55; P=0.007), not disclosing HIV status (AHR=4.03; P<0.001) and CD4 < 200 cells/mm³ (AHR=6.05; P<0.001) were factors associated with survival rates of TB/HIV co-infected patients.

Conclusion

Our finding signals that care and attention should be given to the victims of these synergistic diseases. There is room to improve the survival of the patients if those with low CD4 count and bedridden functional status are closely monitored; and if CPT is promptly initiated with encouraging HIV status disclosure.

Sex difference in survival status among antiretroviral therapy users in Yirgalem general hospital, Sidama zone, south nations nationalities and peoples' region (SNNPR), Ethiopia: retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has been shown to enhance the survival of people living with HIV worldwide. In Ethiopia, the number of ART users has increased from 47,422 in 2005 to 703,516 in 2017; yet, early mortality of patients has presented challenges to the success of the ART program. Because of gender roles, it is assumed that females are at risk of dying earlier after the start of the medications. Hence, this study aimed to assess the sex difference in the survival status among the ART users.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in March 2017 among sample of 687 ART users registered from 2010 to 2015. Data were extracted from patient records by using a structured checklist. The extracted data were analyzed by STATA version 13. Survival analysis and Cox regression were used to determine survival status and identify associated factors.

RESULTS

Among 685 reviewed records of ART users, 20 males and 64 females died in the 5 years period of ART initiation. This makes the overall 5 years survival rate of 84.23%. Females had lower survival probability (80.10%) as compared to males (91.18%) (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 1.79; 95% CI: 1.04, 3.06). Divorced individuals as compared to married (AHR = 2.09; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.97), individuals with less education (AHR = 2.54 95% CI: 1.29, 4.98) or those who attended only primary education (AHR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.65) as compared to those who attended secondary or above had low survival probability. Those who never disclosed their HIV status (AHR = 3.62; 95% CI: 1.25, 10.46) as compared to disclosed, bedridden individuals as compared to normal functional status (AHR = 2.7; 95% CI: 1.24, 5.89) and those who had tuberculosis (TB)-co infection (AHR = 2.60; 1.48, 4.45) had lower rates of survival.

CONCLUSION

Females were at higher risk of dying within 5 years of ART initiation as compared to males. Hence, intervention to further reduce mortality should take sex differences into account. Behavioral interventions and HIV counseling service should also be strengthened to improve rate of disclosure and functional status as well as reduce TB co-infections.

Prognostic Factors of Mortality among Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in India: A Hospital Based Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

HIV related deaths still continue to occur in large numbers in spite of good quality drugs being freely available in India. This study was therefore done to assess the prognostic factors of mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART). This would help in planning strategies for further improving their survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Record based data from baseline and follow-up visits of a cohort of patients aged above 14 years on ART was retrospectively reviewed over a seven-year period. The Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate life time survival probability, and Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to determine independent prognostic factors of death, among patients, after initiation of ART.

RESULTS

Mean age of the total 285 patients enrolled in this study was 45.8±9.7 years. Mean duration of treatment on ART was 1127±611.8 days. During the follow-up period, 44/285(15.4%) patients died, resulting in incidence density of death rate as 3.12 per 100 person years. Good adherence with treatment was reported by 267(93.7%) patients. Nearly half of the deaths, i.e., 21(47.7%), occurred within three months of them starting ART. The mean survival time after initiation of ART was 2084.0±55.3 days (95% CI is 1975.5-2192.5). The presence of opportunistic infections (OIs) and tuberculosis before and poor/average adherence to ART and alcohol usage after starting ART were independent prognostic factors of mortality among patients.

CONCLUSION

Several prognostic factors influencing mortality among adult HIV patients receiving treatment were identified in this study. Screening efforts is essential in early detection and management of OIs among PLHIV. Good counselling and monitoring is recommended to improve adherence and also to prevent alcohol usage after initiation of ART. Such measures would help in further reducing mortality among HIV patients in the settings.

Early mortality among children and adults in antiretroviral therapy programs in Southwest Ethiopia, 2003-15

Background

Several studies reported that the majority of deaths in HIV-infected people are documented in their early antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-ups. Early mortality refers to death of people on ART for follow up period of below 24 months due to any cause. The current study assessed predictors of early HIV mortality in Southwest Ethiopia.

Methods

We have conducted a retrospective analysis of 5299 patient records dating from June 2003- March 2015. To estimate survival time and compare the time to event among the different groups of patients, we used a Kaplan Meir curve and log-rank test. To identify mortality predictors, we used a cox regression analysis. We used SPSS-20 for all analyses.

Results

A total of 326 patients died in the 12 years follow-up period contributing to 6.2% cumulative incidence and 21.7 deaths per 1000 person-year observations incidence rate. Eighty-nine percent of the total deaths were documented in the first two years follow up—an early-term ART follow up. Early HIV mortality rates among adults were 50% less in separated, divorced or widowed patients compared with never married patients, 1.6 times higher in patients with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/μL compared to baseline CD4 count ≥200 cells/μL, 1.5 times higher in patients with baseline WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 compared to baseline WHO clinical stage 1 or 2, 2.1 times higher in patients with immunologic failure compared with no immunologic failure, 60% less in patients with fair or poor compared with good adherence, 2.9 times higher in patients with bedridden functional status compared to working functional status, and 2.7 times higher with patients who had no history of HIV testing before diagnosis compared to those who had history of HIV testing. Most predictors of early mortality remained the same to the predictors of an overall HIV mortality. When discontinuation was assumed as an event, the predictors of an overall HIV mortality included age between 25–50 years, base line CD4 count, developing immunologic failure, bedridden functional status, and no history of HIV testing before diagnosis.

Conclusions

The great majority of deaths were documented in the first two years of ART, and several predictors of early HIV mortality were also for the overall mortality when discontinuation was assumed as event or censored. Considering the above population, interventions to improve HIV program in the first two years of ART follow up should be improved.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Mortality among Adult HIV Patients Initiating ART in Rural Setting of HIV Care and Treatment Services in North Western Tanzania: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction

HIV still causes high mortality despite use of ART. This study was designed to determine the prevalence and risk factors of mortality among HIV patients receiving ART in northwestern rural Tanzania.

Methods

A retrospective study of HIV patients on ART was done at Sengerema in Mwanza, Tanzania. The data on demography, date of HIV diagnosis, WHO stage, opportunistic infections, CD4, hemoglobin, ART regimen, and time and outcome on treatment as dead or alive were collected and analyzed using STATA version 11.

Results

In total, 740 patients were studied. The median age was 35 (27–42) years with female predominance of 465 (62.8%). Of the participants, 261 (35.3%) had WHO stages 3 and 4 diseases. Most participants, 258 (34.9%), had baseline CD4 counts <200 cells/μl. Deaths occurred in 86 (11.6%) patients which were independently associated with male gender (16.0% versus 9.0%, p = 0.015), being divorced (OR = 2.7, p < 0.001), WHO stages 3 and 4 (OR = 2.3, p = 0.05), CD4 <200 cells/μl (OR = 3.4, p < 0.001), and severe anemia (OR = 6.6, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The mortality is high among HIV patients receiving ART in northwestern rural Tanzania. Universal testing could increase early diagnosis and treatment. A close follow-up of at-risk patients within the first year of ART could reduce the mortality of this subgroup of patients.

Risk Factors for Mortality among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients Following Antiretroviral Therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An Assessment through Survival Models

Introduction: Efforts have been made to reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality by delivering antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment. However, HIV patients in resource-poor settings are still dying, even if they are on ART treatment. This study aimed to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality in Southwestern Ethiopia. Method: A non-concurrent retrospective cohort study which collected data from the clinical records of adult HIV/AIDS patients, who initiated ART treatment and were followed between January 2006 and December 2010, was conducted, to explore the factors associated with HIV/AIDS-related mortality at Jimma University Specialized Hospital (JUSH). Survival times (i.e., the time from the onset of ART treatment to the death or censoring) and different characteristics of patients were retrospectively examined. A best-fit model was chosen for the survival data, after the comparison between native semi-parametric Cox regression and parametric survival models (i.e., exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic). Result: A total of 456 HIV patients were included in the study, mostly females (312, 68.4%), with a median age of 30 years (inter-quartile range (IQR): 23–37 years). Estimated follow-up until December 2010 accounted for 1245 person-years at risk (PYAR) and resulted in 66 (14.5%) deaths and 390 censored individuals, representing a median survival time of 34.0 months ( IQR: 22.8–42.0 months). The overall mortality rate was 5.3/100 PYAR: 6.5/100 PYAR for males and 4.8/100 PYAR for females. The Weibull survival model was the best model for fitting the data (lowest AIC). The main factors associated with mortality were: baseline age (>35 years old, AHR = 3.8, 95% CI: 1.6–9.1), baseline weight (AHR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.90–0.97), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR = 6.2, 95% CI: 2.2–14.2), and low adherence to ART treatment (AHR = 4.2, 95% CI: 2.5–7.1). Conclusion: An effective reduction in HIV/AIDS mortality could be achieved through timely ART treatment onset and maintaining high levels of treatment adherence.