Emergence of raccoon rabies in Connecticut, 1991-1994: spatial and temporal characteristics of animal infection and human contact

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

Rabies continues to be one of the deadliest, high risk diseases worldwide, posing a severe threat to public health. The lack of human-to-human transmission means that the spread of rabies is not significantly affected by the distribution of humans or migra- tion. Thus, the spatiotemporal dynamic of cases in both wild and domestic animals is an important issue that can result in human cases. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies for the spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of this disease. It introduces the most representative research progress of spatial aggregation, dynamic transmission, spatiotemporal distribution, epidemiologi- cal analysis and application of modelling in the study of rabies transmission in recent years. This overview should be useful for investigating the spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies, as it could help understanding the spread of cases as well as contribute to the development of better prevention and control strategies in ecology and epidemiology.

Long-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa

Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring cities may behave as the source of these re-introductions. To evaluate this hypothesis, we introduce a spatially explicit metapopulation model for rabies diffusion in Central African Republic. Calibrated on epidemiological data for the capital city, Bangui, the model predicts that long-range movements are essential for continuous re-introductions of rabies-exposed dogs across settlements, eased by the large fluctuations of the incubation period. Bangui's neighborhood, instead, would not be enough to self-sustain the epidemic, contrary to previous expectations. Our findings suggest that restricting long-range travels may be very efficient in limiting rabies persistence in a large and fragmented dog population. Our framework can be applied to other geographical contexts where dog rabies is endemic.

The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China

BACKGROUND

Rabies is a significant public health problem in China. Previous spatial epidemiological studies have helped understand the epidemiology of animal and human rabies in China. However, quantification of effects derived from relevant factors was insufficient and complex spatial interactions were not well articulated, which may lead to non-negligible bias. In this study, we aimed to quantify the role of socio-economic and climate factors in the spatial distribution of human rabies to support decision making pertaining to rabies control in China.

METHODS

We conducted a multivariate analysis of human rabies in China with explicit consideration for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. The panel of 20,368 cases reported between 2005 and 2013 and their socio-economic and climate factors was implemented in regression models. Several significant covariates were extracted, including the longitude, the average temperature, the distance to county center, the distance to the road network and the distance to the nearest rabies case. The GMM was adopted to provide unbiased estimation with respect to heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation.

RESULTS

The analysis explained the inferred relationships between the counts of cases aggregated to 271 spatially-defined cells and the explanatory variables. The results suggested that temperature, longitude, the distance to county centers and the distance to the road network are positively associated with the local incidence of human rabies while the distance to newly occurred rabies cases has a negative correlation. With heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation taken into consideration, the estimation of regression models performed better.

CONCLUSIONS

It was found that climatic and socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the spread of human rabies in China as they continuously affect the living environments of humans and animals, which critically impacts on how timely local citizens can gain access to post-exposure prophylactic services. Moreover, through comparisons between traditional regression models and the aggregation model that allows for heterogeneity and spatial effects, we demonstrated the validity and advantage of the aggregation model. It outperformed the existing models and decreased the estimation bias brought by omission of the spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. Statistical results are readily translated into public health policy takeaways.

Processes Underlying Rabies Virus Incursions across US-Canada Border as Revealed by Whole-Genome Phylogeography

Disease control programs aim to constrain and reduce the spread of infection. Human disease interventions such as wildlife vaccination play a major role in determining the limits of a pathogen’s spatial distribution. Over the past few decades, a raccoon-specific variant of rabies virus (RRV) has invaded large areas of eastern North America. Although expansion into Canada has been largely prevented through vaccination along the US border, several outbreaks have occurred in Canada. Applying phylogeographic approaches to 289 RRV whole-genome sequences derived from isolates collected in Canada and adjacent US states, we examined the processes underlying these outbreaks. RRV incursions were attributable predominantly to systematic virus leakage of local strains across areas along the border where vaccination has been conducted but also to single stochastic events such as long-distance translocations. These results demonstrate the utility of phylogeographic analysis of pathogen genomes for understanding transboundary outbreaks.

Emergence of canine parvovirus subtype 2b (CPV-2b) infections in Australian dogs

Tracing the temporal dynamics of pathogens is crucial for developing strategies to detect and limit disease emergence. Canine parvovirus (CPV-2) is an enteric virus causing morbidity and mortality in dogs around the globe. Previous work in Australia reported that the majority of cases were associated with the CPV-2a subtype, an unexpected finding since CPV-2a was rapidly replaced by another subtype (CPV-2b) in many countries. Using a nine-year dataset of CPV-2 infections from 396 dogs sampled across Australia, we assessed the population dynamics and molecular epidemiology of circulating CPV-2 subtypes. Bayesian phylogenetic Skygrid models and logistic regressions were used to trace the temporal dynamics of CPV-2 infections in dogs sampled from 2007 to 2016. Phylogenetic models indicated that CPV-2a likely emerged in Australia between 1973 and 1988, while CPV-2b likely emerged between 1985 and 1998. Sequences from both subtypes were found in dogs across continental Australia and Tasmania, with no apparent effect of climate variability on subtype occurrence. Both variant subtypes exhibited a classical disease emergence pattern of relatively high rates of evolution during early emergence followed by subsequent decreases in evolutionary rates over time. However, the CPV-2b subtype maintained higher mutation rates than CPV-2a and continued to expand, resulting in an increase in the probability that dogs will carry this subtype over time. Ongoing monitoring programs that provide molecular epidemiology surveillance will be necessary to detect emergence of new variants and make informed recommendations to develop reliable detection and vaccine methods.

Mass vaccination has led to the elimination of rabies since 2014 in South Korea

PURPOSE

Rabies is one of the most fatal diseases, but it is 100% preventable in animals by vaccination. In this study, we present the epidemiological features of, and national preventive measures against, rabies in Korea.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data related to rabies and the population density of raccoon dogs in Korea were collected from the Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Institute of Environmental Research. Rabies diagnosis was confirmed with a fluorescent antibody test using brain samples of animals in accordance with the procedures described by the World Organization for Animal Health. Serological assays for dogs and cattle were conducted using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization test.

RESULTS

From 1993 to 2016, a total of seven human rabies cases and 437 animal rabies cases in five different species were reported. An increase in the distribution of bait vaccine seemed to be related to a dramatic decrease in rabies prevalence in endemic rabies regions. Two Korean provinces and the capital city, Seoul, were involved in rabies outbreaks. Korean rabies strains are most closely related to the eastern Chinese strain belonging to the Arctic-like lineage. The yearly seropositive rates ranged from 50.4% to 81.2% in dogs and from 25% to 60.5% in cattle residing in endemic rabies regions.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that national preventive measures, including mass vaccination and distribution of bait vaccines, have contributed to a substantial decrease in the number of rabies cases in Korea.

High hydrostatic pressure processing: a promising nonthermal technology to inactivate viruses in high-risk foods

Foodborne outbreaks of viral origin have become increasingly a serious public health concern. High-pressure processing (HPP), a nonthermal technology, has come to the forefront for food processing given its minimal effects on food quality. Recent studies have revealed encouraging results for the inactivation of several human viruses by HPP. This review provides comprehensive information on the use of HPP to eliminate viruses in model systems and foods. We address the influences of various parameters, including pressure level, holding time, pH, temperature, and food matrix on the efficacy of pressure inactivation of viruses, as well as insight into the mechanisms for inactivation of enveloped and nonenveloped viruses. HPP is a promising technology for mitigating virus contamination of foods, thus it is essential to identify the optimal parameters for enhancing virus inactivation while ensuring sensory and nutritional quality retention of foods.

Raccoon social networks and the potential for disease transmission

Raccoons are an important vector of rabies and other pathogens. The degree to which these pathogens can spread through a raccoon population should be closely linked to association rates between individual raccoons. Most studies of raccoon sociality have found patterns consistent with low levels of social connectivity within populations, thus the likelihood of direct pathogen transmission between raccoons is theoretically low. We used proximity detecting collars and social network metrics to calculate the degree of social connectivity in an urban raccoon population for purposes of estimating potential pathogen spread. In contrast to previous assumptions, raccoon social association networks were highly connected, and all individuals were connected to one large social network during 15 out of 18 months of study. However, these metrics may overestimate the potential for a pathogen to spread through a population, as many of the social connections were based on relatively short contact periods. To more closely reflect varying probabilities of pathogen spread, we censored the raccoon social networks based on the total amount of time spent in close proximity between two individuals per month. As this time criteria for censoring the social networks increased from one to thirty minutes, corresponding measures of network connectivity declined. These findings demonstrate that raccoon populations are much more tightly connected than would have been predicted based on previous studies, but also point out that additional research is needed to calculate more precise transmission probabilities by infected individuals, and determine how disease infection changes normal social behaviors.

Integrating the landscape epidemiology and genetics of RNA viruses: rabies in domestic dogs as a model

Landscape epidemiology and landscape genetics combine advances in molecular techniques, spatial analyses and epidemiological models to generate a more real-world understanding of infectious disease dynamics and provide powerful new tools for the study of RNA viruses. Using dog rabies as a model we have identified how key questions regarding viral spread and persistence can be addressed using a combination of these techniques. In contrast to wildlife rabies, investigations into the landscape epidemiology of domestic dog rabies requires more detailed assessment of the role of humans in disease spread, including the incorporation of anthropogenic landscape features, human movements and socio-cultural factors into spatial models. In particular, identifying and quantifying the influence of anthropogenic features on pathogen spread and measuring the permeability of dispersal barriers are important considerations for planning control strategies, and may differ according to cultural, social and geographical variation across countries or continents. Challenges for dog rabies research include the development of metapopulation models and transmission networks using genetic information to uncover potential source/sink dynamics and identify the main routes of viral dissemination. Information generated from a landscape genetics approach will facilitate spatially strategic control programmes that accommodate for heterogeneities in the landscape and therefore utilise resources in the most cost-effective way. This can include the efficient placement of vaccine barriers, surveillance points and adaptive management for large-scale control programmes.

Oral rabies vaccination in north america: opportunities, complexities, and challenges

Steps to facilitate inter-jurisdictional collaboration nationally and continentally have been critical for implementing and conducting coordinated wildlife rabies management programs that rely heavily on oral rabies vaccination (ORV). Formation of a national rabies management team has been pivotal for coordinated ORV programs in the United States of America. The signing of the North American Rabies Management Plan extended a collaborative framework for coordination of surveillance, control, and research in border areas among Canada, Mexico, and the US. Advances in enhanced surveillance have facilitated sampling of greater scope and intensity near ORV zones for improved rabies management decision-making in real time. The value of enhanced surveillance as a complement to public health surveillance was best illustrated in Ohio during 2007, where 19 rabies cases were detected that were critical for the formulation of focused contingency actions for controlling rabies in this strategically key area. Diverse complexities and challenges are commonplace when applying ORV to control rabies in wild meso-carnivores. Nevertheless, intervention has resulted in notable successes, including the elimination of an arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) rabies virus variant in most of southern Ontario, Canada, with ancillary benefits of elimination extending into Quebec and the northeastern US. Progress continues with ORV toward preventing the spread and working toward elimination of a unique variant of gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies in west central Texas. Elimination of rabies in coyotes (Canis latrans) through ORV contributed to the US being declared free of canine rabies in 2007. Raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies control continues to present the greatest challenges among meso-carnivore rabies reservoirs, yet to date intervention has prevented this variant from gaining a broad geographic foothold beyond ORV zones designed to prevent its spread from the eastern US. Progress continues toward the development and testing of new bait-vaccine combinations that increase the chance for improved delivery and performance in the diverse meso-carnivore rabies reservoir complex in the US.

Assessing a landscape barrier using genetic simulation modelling: implications for raccoon rabies management

Landscape barriers influence movement patterns of animals, which in turn, affect spatio-temporal spread of infectious wildlife disease. We compare genetic data from computer simulations to those acquired from field samples to measure the effect of a landscape barrier on raccoon (Procyon lotor) movement, enabling risk assessment of raccoon rabies disease spread across the Niagara River from New York State into Ontario, an area currently uninfected by rabies. An individual-based spatially explicit model is used to simulate the expansion of a raccoon population to cross the Niagara River, for different permeabilities of the river to raccoon crossings. Since the model records individual raccoon genetics, the genetic population structure of neutral mitochondrial DNA haplotypes are characterised in the expanding population, every 25 years, using a genetic distance measure, phi ST, Mantel tests and a gene diversity measure. The river barrier effect is assessed by comparing genetic measures computed from model outputs to those calculated from 166 raccoons recently sampled from the same landscape. The "best fit" between modelled scenarios and field data indicate the river prevents 50% of attempts to cross the river. Founder effects dominated the colonizing genetic population structure, and, as the river barrier effect increased, its genetic diversity decreased. Using gene flow to calibrate the effect of the river as a barrier to movement provides an estimate of the effect of a river in reducing the likelihood of cross-river infection. Including individual genetic markers in simulation modelling benefits investigations of disease spread and control.

Pre-spillover prevention of emerging zoonotic diseases: what are the targets and what are the tools?

The uneven standards of surveillance, human- or animal-based, for zoonotic diseases or pathogens maintained and transmitted by wildlife H(R)s, or even domestic species, is a global problem, readily apparent even within the United States, where investment in public health, including surveillance systems, has a long and enviable history. As of 2006, there appears to be little scientific, social, or political consensus that animal-based surveillance for zoonoses merits investment in international infrastructure, other than the fledgling efforts with avian influenza, or targeted nontraditional avenues of surveillance and research. National institutions charged with strategic planning for emerging diseases or intentional releases of zoonotic agents have emphasized improving diagnostic capabilities for detecting human infections, modifying the immune status of human or domestic animals through vaccines, producing better antiviral or antibacterial drugs, and enhancing human-based surveillance as an early warning system. With the possible exception of extensive human vaccination, each of these approaches target post-spillover events and none of these avenues of research will have the slightest impact on reducing the risk of additional emergence of viruses or other pathogens from wildlife. Novel schemes of preventing spillover of human pathogens from animal H(R)s can only spring from improving our understanding of the ecological context and biological interactions of pathogen maintenance among H(R)s. Although the benefit derived from investments to improve surveillance and knowledge of zoonotic pathogens circulating among wildlife H(R) populations is uncertain, our experience with HIV and the looming threat of pandemic avian influenza A inform us of the outcomes we can expect by relying on detection of post-spillover events among sentinel humans.

Animal-based national surveillance for zoonotic disease: quality, limitations, and implications of a model system for monitoring rabies

Surveillance for zoonotic diseases among wildlife is a research and public health challenge. The inherent limitations posed by the requisite human-animal interactions are often undefined and underappreciated. The national surveillance system for animal rabies in the United States was examined as a model system; reporting of animal rabies is legally mandated, each case of rabies is laboratory confirmed, and data have been consistently collected for more than 50 years. Factors influencing the monthly counts of animal rabies tests reported during 1992-2001 were assessed by univariate and multivariable regression methods. The suitability of passively collected surveillance data for determining the presence or absence of the raccoon-associated variant of rabies within states and within individual counties was assessed by determining critical threshold values from the regression analyses. The size of the human population and total expenditures within a county accounted for 72% and 67%, respectively, of the variance in testing. The annual median number of rabies tests performed was seven for counties without rabies, 22 for counties with non-raccoon rabies, and 34 for counties with raccoon rabies. Active surveillance may be required in locales with sparse human populations when a high degree of confidence in the status of rabies is required.

Rabies, an emerging disease in Korea

Since the first rabies case was reported in a dog in 1907, the disease was enzootic up to 1975 in Korea. After a steady decrease in the number of rabies cases from 1976 to 1984, no case was reported for 8 years from 1985 to 1992. Then, a resurgence of the disease was noted in 1993, and a continuous increase of rabies cases was observed during the following years. This report provides information on rabies in South Korea during the reemerging period 1993-2003. A total of 364 rabies cases in five different animal species and five deaths in human beings as a result of rabies were reported. Cattle and dogs accounted for 46.4% and 40.4% of total animal cases, respectively, and raccoon dogs commanded an overwhelming majority (44/48) of rabies cases in wildlife animal species. All animal and human rabies cases occurred only in two provinces, Gyeonggi and Gangwon; majority of them in two counties of Gyeonggi and one county of Gangwon province that border the demilitarized zone. From the three counties, the disease continued to expand to the other areas of the two provinces. The average monthly frequency of animal rabies cases during the 11-year period peaked in January, and the incidence was highest during winter. There were three major rabies outbreaks in animals and the number of animal rabies cases increased with time. Data indicate that the temporal patterns were attributable to the ethology of raccoon dogs in the areas of outbreak.

Assessing the role of long-distance translocation and spatial heterogeneity in the raccoon rabies epidemic in Connecticut

Spatial heterogeneity and long-distance translocation (LDT) play important roles in the spatio-temporal dynamics and management of emerging infectious diseases and invasive species. We assessed the influence of LDT events on the invasive spread of raccoon rabies through Connecticut. We identified several putative LDT events, and developed a network-model to evaluate whether they became new foci for epidemic spread. LDT was fairly common, but many of the LDTs were isolated events that did not spread. Two putative LDT events did appear to become nascent foci that affected the epidemic in surrounding townships. In evaluating the role of LDT, we simultaneously revisited the problem of spatial heterogeneity. The spread of raccoon rabies is associated with forest cover--rabies moves up to three-times slower through the most heavily forested townships compared with those with less forestation. Forestation also modified the effect of rivers. In the best overall model, rabies did not cross the river separating townships that were heavily forested, and the spread slowed substantially between townships that were lightly forested. Our results suggest that spatial heterogeneity can be used to enhance the effects of rabies control by focusing vaccine bait distribution along rivers in lightly forested areas. LDT events are a concern, but this analysis suggests that at a local scale they can be isolated and managed.

Baylisascariasis

The raccoon roundworm, Baylisascaris procyonis, is the most common and widespread cause of clinical larva migrans in animals. In addition, it is increasingly recognized as a cause of devastating or fatal neural larva migrans in infants and young children and ocular larva migrans in adults. Humans become infected by accidentally ingesting infective B. procyonis eggs from raccoon latrines or articles contaminated with their feces. Two features distinguish B. procyonis from other helminthes that cause larva migrans: (i) its aggressive somatic migration and invasion of the central nervous system and (ii) the continued growth of larvae to a large size within the central nervous system. Typically, B. procyonis neural larva migrans presents as acute fulminant eosinophilic meningoencephalitis. Once invasion of the central nervous system has occurred, the prognosis is grave with or without treatment. To date, despite anthelmintic treatment of cases of B. procyonis neural larva migrans, there are no documented neurologically intact survivors. Epidemiologic study of human cases of neural larva migrans demonstrate that contact with raccoon feces or an environment contaminated by infective eggs and geophagia or pica are the most important risk factors for infection. In many regions of the United States, increasingly large populations of raccoons, with high rates of B. procyonis infection, live in close proximity to humans. Although documented cases of human baylisascariasis remain relatively uncommon, widespread contamination of the domestic environment by infected raccoons suggests that the risk of exposure and human infection is probably substantial. In the absence of early diagnosis or effective treatment, prevention of infection is the most important public health measure.

Persistence of elevated rabies prevention costs following post-epizootic declines in rates of rabies among raccoons (Procyon lotor)

Determining the benefits to cost relationships among different approaches to rabies control and prevention has been hindered by the inherent temporal variability in the dynamics of disease among wildlife reservoir hosts and a tangible and objective measure of the cost of rabies prevention. A major and unavoidable component of rabies prevention programs involves diagnostic testing of animals and the subsequent initiation of appropriate public health responses. The unit cost per negative and positive diagnostic test outcome can be reasonably estimated. This metric when linked to methodologies subdividing the epizootic process into distinct temporal stages provided the requisite detail to estimate benefits derived from rabies control strategies. Oral rabies vaccine (ORV), for prevention of the raccoon-associated variant of rabies, has been distributed in Ohio and adjoining states in an effort to develop an immune barrier to the westward spread of epizootic raccoon rabies. The costs of ORV delivery have been quantified. Herein, the cost structures required to assess the benefits accrued by prevention were developed. A regression model was developed effectively predicting (r2=0.70) the total number of rabies diagnostic tests performed by 53 counties in five northeastern (NE) states from 1992 to 2001. Five temporal stages sufficed to capture the range of variability in the raccoon rabies epizootic process. Unit costs, dollars per diagnostic test outcome, were calculated for negative and positive results from published reports. Ohio counties were matched to NE counties based on similar socioeconomic characters. A "pseudo-epizootic" of raccoon rabies was introduced into Ohio and the costs savings from ORV were derived as the excess costs imposed by epizootic spread throughout the state. At 46 km/year (range modeled, 30-60 km/year), the pseudo epizootic spread, and reached the enzootic stage, in all Ohio counties by year 13 (range modeled, 11-17 years). Cumulative excess costs for Ohio ranged between $11 and $21 million; counties of low socioeconomic status experienced the greatest relative excess costs. The costs for rabies prevention activities reached apices during the epizootic stage of raccoon rabies (2.7-10.8 times baseline) an unforeseen finding indicated elevated costs persisted (1.7-7.2 times baseline) into the enzootic stage.

Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort.

A model predicting that the spread of rabies across Ohio will be much more rapid than elsewhere reveals the power of this approach to pro-actively assist targeted surveillance strategies and vaccine delivery

Spatial dynamics and molecular ecology of North American rabies

Rabies, caused by a single-stranded RNA virus, is arguably the most important viral zoonotic disease worldwide. Although endemic throughout many regions for millennia, rabies is also undergoing epidemic expansion, often quite rapid, among wildlife populations across regions of Europe and North America. A current rabies epizootic in North America is largely attributable to the accidental introduction of a particularly well-adapted virus variant into a naive raccoon population along the Virginia/West Virginia border in the mid-1970s. We have used the extant database on the spatial and temporal occurrence of rabid raccoons across the eastern United States to construct predictive models of disease spread and have tied patterns of emergence to local environmental variables, genetic heterogeneity, and host specificity. Rabies will continue to be a remarkable model system for exploring basic issues in the temporal and spatial dynamics of expanding infectious diseases and examining ties between disease population ecology and evolutionary genetics at both micro- and macro-evolutionary time scales.

A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment

Directly transmitted infectious diseases spread through wildlife populations as travelling waves away from the sites of original introduction. These waves often become distorted through their interaction with environmental and population heterogeneities and by long-distance translocation of infected individuals. Accurate a priori predictions of travelling waves of infection depend upon understanding and quantifying these distorting factors. We assess the effects of anisotropies arising from the orientation of rivers in relation to the direction of disease-front propagation and the damming effect of mountains on disease movement in natural populations. The model successfully predicts the local and large-scale prevaccination spread of raccoon rabies through New York State, based on a previous spatially heterogeneous model of raccoon-rabies invasion across the state of Connecticut. Use of this model provides a rare example of a priori prediction of an epidemic invasion over a naturally heterogeneous landscape. Model predictions matched to data can also be used to evaluate the most likely points of disease introduction. These results have general implications for predicting future pathogen invasions and evaluating potential containment strategies.

A Serosurvey of Leptospirosis in Connecticut Peridomestic Wildlife

Recently, leptospirosis has gained attention as a re-emerging infection in domestic dogs in the northeastern United States. In order to gain insight into the epizootiology of leptospirosis in this region, 109 small wild mammals (31 raccoons (Procyon lotor), 30 skunks (Mephitis mephitis), 28 opossums (Didelphis virginiana), and 20 gray squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis)) collected between February 27 and September 17, 2001 were tested for serologic evidence of exposure to five common Leptospira serovars (serovars pomona, icterohemorrhagiae, canicola, hardjo, grippotyphosa). Evidence of exposure to leptospirosis was detected in 36% of raccoons tested; icterohemorrhagiae was the predominant reactive serovar in these animals. Sera from 13% of skunks showed evidence of exposure to serovar grippotyphosa. One squirrel exhibited high antibody titers to serovars grippotyphosa and canicola. All 28 opossums examined tested negative to the five Leptospira serovars. Results from this serosurvey suggest that common peridomestic wildlife species should be considered as potential sources of leptospirosis to dogs and humans in Connecticut. Additional investigation is warranted to clarify their role in the epidemiology of this zoonotic disease in the northeastern United States.

Skunk and raccoon rabies in the eastern United States: temporal and spatial analysis

Since 1981, an epizootic of raccoon rabies has spread throughout the eastern United States. A concomitant increase in reported rabies cases in skunks has raised concerns that an independent maintenance cycle of rabies virus in skunks could become established, affecting current strategies of wildlife rabies control programs. Rabies surveillance data from 1981 through 2000 obtained from the health departments of 11 eastern states were used to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of rabies epizootics in each species. Spatial analysis indicated that epizootics in raccoons and skunks moved in a similar direction from 1990 to 2000. Temporal regression analysis showed that the number of rabid raccoons predicted the number of rabid skunks through time, with a 1-month lag. In areas where the raccoon rabies virus variant is enzootic, spatio-temporal analysis does not provide evidence that this rabies virus variant is currently cycling independently among skunks.

Risk factors for human exposure to raccoon rabies during an epizootic in Connecticut

The emergence of rabies among terrestrial wildlife poses increasing but poorly defined risks to people. In particular, events leading to human exposure to rabies virus via mammalian reservoirs remain elusive. Thus, we determined those risk factors associated with human exposure to rabies-positive animals during a raccoon rabies epizootic in Connecticut. Existing passive surveillance data on animal rabies tests in Connecticut from 1991 through 1994 were evaluated for demographic, ecological, and behavioral characteristics of human exposure. Of 2,525 rabies-positive terrestrial animals identified, human contact was reported on 556 occasions (22%) and involved at least 939 individuals. The annual incidence of exposure rose from none during 1985-1990 to 66 in 1991 and then averaged 291 during 1992-1994. Exposure was most often indirect in nature, involved a rabies-positive raccoon, was mediated through a domestic animal, and occurred most frequently either near or inside the home. These results suggest that human exposure to rabid animals represents a significant, reemerging public health concern in the United States. Analysis of the epizootiology of rabies infection and of individual exposure risks could reduce inappropriate administration of rabies postexposure prophylaxis, as well as inform other proposed interventions.

Spatiotemporal analysis of epizootic raccoon rabies propagation in Connecticut, 1991-1995

The quantitative analysis of pathogen transmission within its specific spatial context should improve our ability to predict and control the epizootic spread of that disease. We compared two methods for calibrating the effect of local, spatially distributed environmental heterogeneities on disease spread. Using the time-of-first-appearance of raccoon rabies across the 169 townships in Connecticut, we estimated local spatial variation in township-to-township transmission rate using Trend Surface Analysis (TSA) and then compared these estimates with those based on an earlier probabilistic simulation using the same data. Both the probabilistic simulation and the TSA reveal significant reduction in transmission when local spatial domains are separated by rivers. The probabilistic simulation suggested that township-to-township transmission was reduced sevenfold for townships separated by a river. The global effect of this sevenfold reduction is to increase the time-to-first-appearance in the eastern townships of Connecticut by approximately 29.7% (spread was from west to east). TSA revealed a similar effect of rivers with an overall reduction in rate of local propagation due to rivers of approximately 22%. The 7.7% difference in these two estimates reveals slightly different aspects of the spatial dynamics of this epizootic. Together, these two methods can be used to construct an overall picture of the combined effects of local spatial variation in township-to-township transmission on patterns of local rate of propagation at scales larger than the immediate nearest neighboring townships.

Rabies epizootics among raccoons vary along a North-South gradient in the Eastern United States

The characteristics of rabies epizootics among raccoons were investigated in 11 eastern states along a North-South gradient from New York to North Carolina. Epizootics were defined as discrete intervals of time of at least 5 months in duration, when reported cases of raccoon rabies from an individual county exceeded the median value of raccoon rabies cases reported by that county over the entire period rabies was present among raccoons in the county. Over the approximately 20-year study period, 35,000 cases of raccoon rabies were reported, and epizootics were detected from 251 (64.4%) of 390 counties. The median annual incidence was 0.14 epizootics per year. During the first defined epizootic in a county, the median total number of raccoons reported rabid was 47, with a median monthly incidence of rabies in raccoons of 3.1. The median lag time from the first report of a rabid raccoon in a county to the beginning of the first epizootic was 4 months. Significant differences in the annual incidence of epizootics and monthly incidence of rabid raccoons during epizootics were observed among different states. Although human population density and per capita health spending within counties were positively associated with increasing magnitude of epizootics, a significant difference in the characteristics of rabies epizootics in northern and southern states was apparent. We hypothesize that environmental conditions and perhaps human influence resulted in rabies epizootics in southern states that were smaller, less-frequent, and lacking in well-defined temporal structure compared with those in northern states.

Trends in national surveillance for rabies among bats in the United States (1993-2000)

OBJECTIVE

To describe surveillance trends and epidemiologic features of rabies in bats in the United States, focusing on 3 bat species primarily associated with variants of the rabies virus that affect humans.

DESIGN

Retrospective study.

ANIMALS

31,380 bats.

PROCEDURE

Data on rabies for bats identified to species and reported by state laboratories from 1993 to 2000 were analyzed, focusing on silver-haired, eastern pipistrelle, and Brazilian free-tailed bats. Categoric variables were derived from other provided information.

RESULTS

Data were reported from 37 states during the study interval; complete species-specific data were not reported by any state for the entire interval. Bats primarily associated with rabies virus variants affecting humans were more likely to yield positive test results for rabies (22.7%), compared with all other bats (5.5%) in most seasons and from most regions of the United States. However, certain other bat species had higher percentages of positive results. Risk of positive results was highest in the fall and highest among bats originating in the southwestern United States.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Increased risk of rabies among certain groups of bat species was consistently found across seasons and most geographic regions of the United States. Results were in general agreement with those of previous studies conducted within smaller geographic regions. There are ongoing efforts to improve surveillance of rabies in bats, although surveillance is incomplete in some regions.

Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes

Often as an epidemic spreads, the leading front is irregular, reflecting spatial variation in local transmission rates. We developed a methodology for quantifying spatial variation in rates of disease spread across heterogeneous landscapes. Based on data for epidemic raccoon rabies in Connecticut, we developed a stochastic spatial model of rabies spread through the state's 169 townships. We quantified spatial variation in transmission rates associated with human demography and key habitat features. We found that large rivers act as semipermeable barriers, leading to a 7-fold reduction in the local rates of propagation. By combining the spatial distribution of major rivers with long-distance dispersal we were able to account for the observed irregular pattern of disease spread across the state without recourse to direct assessment of host-pathogen populations.

Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States

Mathematical models have been developed to explore the population dynamics of viral diseases among wildlife. However, assessing the predictions stemming from these models with wildlife databases adequate in size and temporal duration is uncommon. An epizootic of raccoon rabies that began in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States in the late 1970s has developed into one of the largest and most extensive in the history of wildlife rabies. We analyzed the dynamics of local epizootics at the county level by examining a database spanning more than 20 years and including 35,387 rabid raccoons. The size, number, and periodicity of rabies epizootics among raccoons were compared with predictions derived from a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered model of raccoon rabies [Coyne, J., Smith, G. & McAllister, F. E. (1989) Am. J. Vet. Res. 50, 2148-2154]. After our methods for defining epizootics were applied to solutions of the model, the time series revealed recurrent epizootics in some counties, with a median first epizootic period of 48 months. Successive epizootics declined in size and the epizootic period progressively decreased. Our reanalysis of the model predicted the initial-epizootic period of 4-5 years, with a progressive dampening of epizootic size and progressive decrease in epizootic period. The best quantitative agreement between data and model assumed low levels of immunity (1-5%) within raccoon populations, suggesting that raccoons develop little or no rabies immune class. These results encourage the use of data obtained through wildlife surveillance in assessing and refining epidemic models for wildlife diseases.

Effects of environmental change on emerging parasitic diseases

Ecological disturbances exert an influence on the emergence and proliferation of malaria and zoonotic parasitic diseases, including, Leishmaniasis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, trypanosomiasis, schistosomiasis, filariasis, onchocerciasis, and loiasis. Each environmental change, whether occurring as a natural phenomenon or through human intervention, changes the ecological balance and context within which disease hosts or vectors and parasites breed, develop, and transmit disease. Each species occupies a particular ecological niche and vector species sub-populations are distinct behaviourally and genetically as they adapt to man-made environments. Most zoonotic parasites display three distinct life cycles: sylvatic, zoonotic, and anthroponotic. In adapting to changed environmental conditions, including reduced non-human population and increased human population, some vectors display conversion from a primarily zoophyllic to primarily anthrophyllic orientation. Deforestation and ensuing changes in landuse, human settlement, commercial development, road construction, water control systems (dams, canals, irrigation systems, reservoirs), and climate, singly, and in combination have been accompanied by global increases in morbidity and mortality from emergent parasitic disease. The replacement of forests with crop farming, ranching, and raising small animals can create supportive habitats for parasites and their host vectors. When the land use of deforested areas changes, the pattern of human settlement is altered and habitat fragmentation may provide opportunities for exchange and transmission of parasites to the heretofore uninfected humans. Construction of water control projects can lead to shifts in such vector populations as snails and mosquitoes and their parasites. Construction of roads in previously inaccessible forested areas can lead to erosion, and stagnant ponds by blocking the flow of streams when the water rises during the rainy season. The combined effects of environmentally detrimental changes in local land use and alterations in global climate disrupt the natural ecosystem and can increase the risk of transmission of parasitic diseases to the human population.

Using a spatial filter and a geographic information system to improve rabies surveillance data

The design and coordination of antirabies measures (e.g., oral vaccine and disease awareness campaigns) often depend on surveillance data. In Kentucky, health officials are concerned that the raccoon rabies epizootic that has spread throughout the east coast since the late 1970s could enter the state. The quality of surveillance data from Kentucky's 120 counties, however, may not be consistent. This article presents a geographic model that can be used with a geographic information system (GIS) to assess whether a county has a lower number of animals submitted for rabies testing than surrounding counties. This technique can be used as a first step in identifying areas needing improvement in their surveillance scheme. This model is a variant of a spatial filter that uses points within an area of analysis (usually a circle) to estimate the value of a central point. The spatial filter is an easy-to-use method of identifying point patterns, such as clusters or holes, at various geographic scales (county, intraurban), by using the traditional circle as an area of analysis or a GIS to incorporate a political shape (county boundary).