A novel low-cost approach to estimate the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in the catchment area of three hospitals in Bangladesh

Informing an investment case for Japanese encephalitis vaccine introduction in Bangladesh

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major threat to human health. Bangladesh is considering introducing a JEV vaccine; however, the investment case is hampered by a limited understanding of key aspects of JEV ecology. We conducted a seroprevalence study in a high-incidence region using an assay that limits cross-reactivity with dengue virus. We also trapped mosquitoes and collected information about potential host species. We used mathematical models to recover risk factors for infection and underlying probabilities of severe disease and death. We observed 19.0% [95% confidence interval (CI):17.1 to 21.1] of JEV antibodies. On average, 0.7% (95% CI: 0.2 to 2.0) of the susceptible population gets infected yearly, with pig proximity being the main human infection risk factor. Our traps captured 10 different mosquito species that have been linked with JEV transmission. We estimated that 1 in 1000 infections results in severe disease, 1 in 10,000 results in death, and 76% of severe cases are missed by surveillance.

Priority setting of vaccine introduction in Bangladesh: a multicriteria decision analysis study

OBJECTIVE

To prioritise vaccines for introduction in Bangladesh.

METHODS

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) process was used to prioritise potential vaccines for introduction in Bangladesh. A set of criteria were identified, weighted and assigned scores by relevant stakeholders (n=14) during workshop A. The performance matrix of the data of vaccines against the criteria set was constructed and validated with the experts (n=6) in workshop B. The vaccines were ranked and appraised by another group of stakeholders (n=10) in workshop C, and the final workshop D involved the dissemination of the findings to decision-makers (n=28).

RESULTS

Five criteria including incidence rate, case fatality rate, vaccine efficacy, size of the population at risk and type of population at risk were used quantitatively to evaluate and to score the vaccines. Two other criteria, cost-effectiveness and outbreak potentiality, were considered qualitatively. On deliberation, the Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine was ranked top to be recommended for introduction in Bangladesh.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the MCDA results, JE vaccine is planned to be recommended to the decision-makers for introduction into the national vaccine benefit package. The policymakers support the use of systematic evidence-based decision-making processes such as MCDA for vaccine introduction in Bangladesh, and to prioritise health interventions in the country.

The current burden of Japanese encephalitis and the estimated impacts of vaccination: Combining estimates of the spatial distribution and transmission intensity of a zoonotic pathogen

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a major cause of neurological disability in Asia and causes thousands of severe encephalitis cases and deaths each year. Although Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a WHO reportable disease, cases and deaths are significantly underreported and the true burden of the disease is not well understood in most endemic countries. Here, we first conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE to identify the areas suitable for sustained JEV transmission and the size of the population living in at-risk areas. We then estimated the force of infection (FOI) for JE-endemic countries from age-specific incidence data. Estimates of the susceptible population size and the current FOI were then used to estimate the JE burden from 2010 to 2019, as well as the impact of vaccination. Overall, 1,543.1 million (range: 1,292.6-2,019.9 million) people were estimated to live in areas suitable for endemic JEV transmission, which represents only 37.7% (range: 31.6-53.5%) of the over four billion people living in countries with endemic JEV transmission. Based on the baseline number of people at risk of infection, there were an estimated 56,847 (95% CI: 18,003-184,525) JE cases and 20,642 (95% CI: 2,252-77,204) deaths in 2019. Estimated incidence declined from 81,258 (95% CI: 25,437-273,640) cases and 29,520 (95% CI: 3,334-112,498) deaths in 2010, largely due to increases in vaccination coverage which have prevented an estimated 314,793 (95% CI: 94,566-1,049,645) cases and 114,946 (95% CI: 11,421-431,224) deaths over the past decade. India had the largest estimated JE burden in 2019, followed by Bangladesh and China. From 2010-2019, we estimate that vaccination had the largest absolute impact in China, with 204,734 (95% CI: 74,419-664,871) cases and 74,893 (95% CI: 8,989-286,239) deaths prevented, while Taiwan (91.2%) and Malaysia (80.1%) had the largest percent reductions in JE burden due to vaccination. Our estimates of the size of at-risk populations and current JE incidence highlight countries where increasing vaccination coverage could have the largest impact on reducing their JE burden.

Japanese encephalitis is a vector-transmitted, zoonotic disease that is endemic throughout a large portion of Asia. Vaccination has significantly reduced the JE burden in several formerly high-burden countries, but vaccination coverage remains limited in several other countries with high JE burdens. A better understanding of both the spatial distribution and the magnitude of the burden in endemic countries is critical for future disease prevention efforts. To estimate the number of people living in areas within Asia suitable for JEV transmission we conducted a spatial analysis of the risk factors associated with JE. We estimate that over one billion people live in areas suitable for local JEV transmission. We then combined these population-at-risk estimates with estimates of the force of infection (FOI) to model the national-level burden of JE (annual cases and deaths) over the past decade. Increases in vaccination coverage have reduced JE incidence from over 80,000 cases in 2010 to fewer than 57,000 cases in 2019. We estimate that vaccination has prevented almost 315,000 cases and 115,000 deaths in the past decade. Our results also call attention to the countries, and high-risk areas within countries, where increases in vaccination coverage are most needed.

Major zoonotic diseases of public health importance in Bangladesh

Zoonotic diseases cause repeated outbreaks in humans globally. The majority of emerging infections in humans are zoonotic. COVID‐19 is an ideal example of a recently identified emerging zoonotic disease, causing a global pandemic. Anthropogenic factors such as modernisation of agriculture and livestock farming, wildlife hunting, the destruction of wild animal habitats, mixing wild and domestic animals, wildlife trading, changing food habits and urbanisation could drive the emergence of zoonotic diseases in humans. Since 2001, Bangladesh has been reporting many emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks such as nipah, highly pathogenic avian influenza, pandemic H1N1, and COVID‐19. There are many other potential zoonotic pathogens such as Ebola, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Kyasanur forest disease virus and Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever that may emerge in the future. However, we have a limited understanding of zoonotic diseases’ overall risk in humans and associated factors that drive the emergence of zoonotic pathogens. This narrative review summarised the major emerging, re‐emerging, neglected and other potential zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh and their associated risk factors. Nipah virus and Bacillus anthracis caused repeated outbreaks in humans. More than 300 human cases with Nipah virus infection were reported since the first outbreak in 2001. The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H5N1) caused more than 550 outbreaks in poultry, and eight human cases were reported so far since 2007. People of Bangladesh are frequently exposed to zoonotic pathogens due to close interaction with domestic and peri‐domestic animals. The rapidly changing intensified animal–human–ecosystem interfaces and risky practices increase the risk of zoonotic disease transmission. The narrative review's findings are useful to draw attention to the risk and emergence of zoonotic diseases to public health policymakers in Bangladesh and the application of one‐health approach to address this public health threat.

Hospital-based surveillance for Japanese encephalitis in Bangladesh, 2007-2016: Implications for introduction of immunization

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Japanese encephalitis (JE) is largely preventable through vaccination.

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Several JE vaccines prequalified by World Health Organization are available.

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Hospital-based surveillance were conducted in Bangladesh to describe JE epidemiology.

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JE cases were identified each year, among all age groups, and from a widespread geographical area.

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Routine childhood immunization program or mass vaccination need to be examined.

Background

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus is recognized as a major cause of encephalitis in Bangladesh. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends human immunization as the most effective means to control JE. Several WHO-prequalified vaccines are available to prevent JE but no vaccination program has been implemented in Bangladesh.

Methods

We conducted hospital-based surveillance for acute meningitis-encephalitis syndrome (AMES) to describe JE epidemiology and help inform policy decisions about possible immunization strategies for Bangladesh.

Results

During 2007–2016, a total of 6543 AMES patients were identified at four tertiary hospitals. Of the 6525 patients tested, 548 (8%) were classified as JE cases. These 548 patients resided in 36 (56%) out of 64 districts of Bangladesh, with the highest proportion of JE cases among AMES patients (12% and 7%) presenting at two hospitals in the northwestern part of the country. The median age of JE cases was 30 years, and 193 (35%) were aged ≤15 years. The majority of JE cases (80%) were identified from July through November.

Conclusions

Surveillance results suggest that JE continues to be an important cause of meningo-encephalitis in Bangladesh. Immunization strategies including JE vaccine introduction into the routine childhood immunization program or mass vaccination in certain age groups or geographic areas need to be examined, taking into consideration the cost-effectiveness ratio of the approach and potential for decreasing disease burden.

Febrile Illness Evaluation in a Broad Range of Endemicities (FIEBRE): protocol for a multisite prospective observational study of the causes of fever in Africa and Asia

INTRODUCTION

Fever commonly leads to healthcare seeking and hospital admission in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. There is only limited guidance for clinicians managing non-malarial fevers, which often results in inappropriate treatment for patients. Furthermore, there is little evidence for estimates of disease burden, or to guide empirical therapy, control measures, resource allocation, prioritisation of clinical diagnostics or antimicrobial stewardship. The Febrile Illness Evaluation in a Broad Range of Endemicities (FIEBRE) study seeks to address these information gaps.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

FIEBRE investigates febrile illness in paediatric and adult outpatients and inpatients using standardised clinical, laboratory and social science protocols over a minimum 12-month period at five sites in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeastern and Southern Asia. Patients presenting with fever are enrolled and provide clinical data, pharyngeal swabs and a venous blood sample; selected participants also provide a urine sample. Laboratory assessments target infections that are treatable and/or preventable. Selected point-of-care tests, as well as blood and urine cultures and antimicrobial susceptibility testing, are performed on site. On day 28, patients provide a second venous blood sample for serology and information on clinical outcome. Further diagnostic assays are performed at international reference laboratories. Blood and pharyngeal samples from matched community controls enable calculation of AFs, and surveys of treatment seeking allow estimation of the incidence of common infections. Additional assays detect markers that may differentiate bacterial from non-bacterial causes of illness and/or prognosticate illness severity. Social science research on antimicrobial use will inform future recommendations for fever case management. Residual samples from participants are stored for future use.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval was obtained from all relevant institutional and national committees; written informed consent is obtained from all participants or parents/guardians. Final results will be shared with participating communities, and in open-access journals and other scientific fora. Study documents are available online (https://doi.org/10.17037/PUBS.04652739).

Using healthcare-seeking behaviour to estimate the number of Nipah outbreaks missed by hospital-based surveillance in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Understanding the true burden of emergent diseases is critical for assessing public-health impact. However, surveillance often relies on hospital systems that only capture a minority of cases. We use the example of Nipah-virus infection in Bangladesh, which has a high case-fatality ratio and frequent person-to-person transmission, to demonstrate how healthcare-seeking data can estimate true burden.

METHODS

We fit logistic-regression models to data from a population-based, healthcare-seeking study of encephalitis cases to characterize the impact of distance and mortality on attending one of three surveillance hospital sites. The resulting estimates of detection probabilities, as a function of distance and outcome, are applied to all observed Nipah outbreaks between 2007 and 2014 to estimate the true burden.

RESULTS

The probability of attending a surveillance hospital fell from 82% for people with fatal encephalitis living 10 km away from a surveillance hospital to 54% at 50 km away. The odds of attending a surveillance hospital are 3.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.6, 6.6) times greater for patients who eventually died (i.e. who were more severely ill) compared with those who survived. Using these probabilities, we estimated that 119 Nipah outbreaks (95% confidence interval: 103, 140)-an average of 15 outbreaks per Nipah season-occurred during 2007-14; 62 (52%) were detected.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest hospital-based surveillance missed nearly half of all Nipah outbreaks. This analytical method allowed us to estimate the underlying burden of disease, which is important for emerging diseases where healthcare access may be limited.

Integrating Facility-Based Surveillance With Healthcare Utilization Surveys to Estimate Enteric Fever Incidence: Methods and Challenges

Cohort studies and facility-based sentinel surveillance are common approaches to characterizing infectious disease burden, but present trade-offs; cohort studies are resource-intensive and may alter disease natural history, while sentinel surveillance underestimates incidence in the population. Hybrid surveillance, whereby facility-based surveillance is paired with a community-based healthcare utilization assessment, represents an alternative approach to generating population-based disease incidence estimates with moderate resource investments. Here, we discuss this method in the context of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) study. We describe how data are collected and utilized to adjust enteric fever incidence for blood culture sensitivity, facility-based enrollment, and healthcare seeking, incorporating uncertainty in these parameters in the uncertainty around incidence estimates. We illustrate how selection of surveillance sites and their coverage may influence precision and bias, and we identify approaches in the study design and analysis to minimize and control for these biases. Rigorously designed hybrid surveillance systems can be an efficient approach to generating population-based incidence estimates for infectious diseases.

A Low-Cost, Community Knowledge Approach to Estimate Maternal and Jaundice-Associated Mortality in Rural Bangladesh

In the absence of a civil registration system, a house-to-house survey is often used to estimate cause-specific mortality in low- and middle-income countries. However, house-to-house surveys are resource and time intensive. We applied a low-cost community knowledge approach to identify maternal deaths from any cause and jaundice-associated deaths among persons aged ≥ 14 years, and stillbirths and neonatal deaths in mothers with jaundice during pregnancy in five rural communities in Bangladesh. We estimated the method's sensitivity and cost savings compared with a house-to-house survey. In the five communities with a total of 125,570 population, we identified 13 maternal deaths, 60 deaths among persons aged ≥ 14 years associated with jaundice, five neonatal deaths, and four stillbirths born to a mother with jaundice during pregnancy over the 3-year period before the survey using the community knowledge approach. The sensitivity of community knowledge method in identifying target deaths ranged from 80% for neonatal deaths to 100% for stillbirths and maternal deaths. The community knowledge approach required 36% of the staff time to undertake compared with the house-to-house survey. The community knowledge approach was less expensive but highly sensitive in identifying maternal and jaundice-associated mortality, as well as all-cause adult mortality in rural settings in Bangladesh. This method can be applied in rural settings of other low- and middle-income countries and, in conjunction with hospital-based hepatitis diagnoses, used to monitor the impact of programs to reduce the burden of cause-specific hepatitis mortality, a current World Health Organization priority.

Incidence of human brucellosis in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania in the periods 2007-2008 and 2012-2014

Background

Brucellosis causes substantial morbidity among humans and their livestock. There are few robust estimates of the incidence of brucellosis in sub-Saharan Africa. Using cases identified through sentinel hospital surveillance and health care utilization data, we estimated the incidence of brucellosis in Moshi Urban and Moshi Rural Districts, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania, for the periods 2007–2008 and 2012–2014.

Methods

Cases were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals and were defined as having either a 4-fold increase in Brucella microscopic agglutination test titres between acute and convalescent serum or a blood culture positive for Brucella spp. Findings from a health care utilization survey were used to estimate multipliers to account for cases not seen at sentinel hospitals.

Results

Of 585 patients enrolled in the period 2007–2008, 13 (2.2%) had brucellosis. Among 1095 patients enrolled in the period 2012–2014, 32 (2.9%) had brucellosis. We estimated an incidence (range based on sensitivity analysis) of brucellosis of 35 (range 32–93) cases per 100 000 persons annually in the period 2007–2008 and 33 (range 30–89) cases per 100 000 persons annually in the period 2012–2014.

Conclusions

We found a moderate incidence of brucellosis in northern Tanzania, suggesting that the disease is endemic and an important human health problem in this area.

Nationally-representative serostudy of dengue in Bangladesh allows generalizable disease burden estimates

Serostudies are needed to answer generalizable questions on disease risk. However, recruitment is usually biased by age or location. We present a nationally-representative study for dengue from 70 communities in Bangladesh. We collected data on risk factors, trapped mosquitoes and tested serum for IgG. Out of 5866 individuals, 24% had evidence of historic infection, ranging from 3% in the north to >80% in Dhaka. Being male (aOR:1.8, [95%CI:1.5–2.0]) and recent travel (aOR:1.3, [1.1–1.8]) were linked to seropositivity. We estimate that 40 million [34.3–47.2] people have been infected nationally, with 2.4 million ([1.3–4.5]) annual infections. Had we visited only 20 communities, seropositivity estimates would have ranged from 13% to 37%, highlighting the lack of representativeness generated by small numbers of communities. Our findings have implications for both the design of serosurveys and tackling dengue in Bangladesh.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that infects millions of people each year. Often the countries most affected by the virus, such as Bangladesh, do not have the resources needed to tackle the disease. For resources sent to these countries to have the greatest impact, it is important to know which areas are most affected, and which subsets of the population are most at risk. A way to gather this information is to test for dengue virus antibodies a protein produced by the immune system in response to the infection in the blood of individuals. However, previous efforts to use these tests to understand dengue risk in communities have generally only been done in single locations, typically a major city, and the findings of these tests are unlikely to be applicable to the wider population.

Now, Salje et al. have visited 70 different communities from all around Bangladesh and used these tests on blood samples collected from over 5,000 individuals from a range of age-groups. From these measurements it was estimated that an average 2.4 million people are infected with dengue each year in Bangladesh, with major cities, such as Dhaka, experiencing more concentrated levels. The exposure to dengue outside major cities was much lower, and men, who tend to travel more, were found to be at greater risk of infection.

Salje et al. also showed that using a small number of communities to estimate national levels of infection led to misleading results. This highlights the danger of using information collected from a limited number of places to represent the effects of a disease on the wider population.

Public health agencies in Bangladesh will be able to use this information to tackle dengue more effectively, focusing on the areas and the populations most affected by the disease. In addition, the design and analytical approaches used in this study could be applied to other countries, and to different diseases.

Evolving Epidemiology of Japanese Encephalitis: Implications for Vaccination

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We examine the present global burden of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in endemic populations, summarize published cases in travelers since 2009, examine current guidelines for vaccination for international travelers, and consider challenges in prevention of this vector-borne disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

We identified 11 JE cases in travelers that were published in peer-reviewed literature since 2009. JE incidence in endemic countries appears to be declining but the number of JE cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) varied from estimates derived from other published reports based on serosurveys or sentinel surveillance. Current JE vaccines appear to be safe and are not associated with delayed hypersensitivity in contrast to the older mouse brain vaccine. Given differences between WHO-reported cases and local surveillance data, future research on true incidence is needed. Regular assessment will inform JE risk in travelers. National and international guidelines on JE vaccination varied; we suggest areas for improvement.

Estimation of the Burden of Serious Human Fungal Infections in Malaysia

Fungal infections (mycoses) are likely to occur more frequently as ever-increasingly sophisticated healthcare systems create greater risk factors. There is a paucity of systematic data on the incidence and prevalence of human fungal infections in Malaysia. We conducted a comprehensive study to estimate the burden of serious fungal infections in Malaysia. Our study showed that recurrent vaginal candidiasis (>4 episodes/year) was the most common of all cases with a diagnosis of candidiasis (n = 501,138). Oesophageal candidiasis (n = 5850) was most predominant among individuals with HIV infection. Candidemia incidence (n = 1533) was estimated in hospitalized individuals, some receiving treatment for cancer (n = 1073), and was detected also in individuals admitted to intensive care units (ICU) (n = 460). In adults with asthma, allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) was the second most common respiratory mycoses noticed (n = 30,062) along with severe asthma with fungal sensitization (n = 39,628). Invasive aspergillosis was estimated in 184 cases undergoing anti-cancer treatment and 834 ICU cases. Cryptococcal meningitis was diagnosed in 700 subjects with HIV/AIDS and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonitis (PCP) in 1286 subjects with underlying HIV disease. The present study indicates that at least 590,214 of the Malaysian population (1.93%) is affected by a serious fungal infection annually. This problem is serious enough to warrant the further epidemiological studies to estimate the burden of human fungal infections in Malaysia.

Incidence of Acute Diarrhea-Associated Death among Children < 5 Years of Age in Bangladesh, 2010-12

Although acute diarrheal deaths have declined globally among children < 5 years, it may still contribute to childhood mortality as an underlying or contributing cause. The aim of this project was to estimate the incidence of acute diarrhea-associated deaths, regardless of primary cause, among children < 5 years in Bangladesh during 2010-12. We conducted a survey in 20 unions (administrative units) within the catchment areas of 10 tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh. Through social networks, our field team identified households where children < 5 years were reported to have died during 2010-12. Trained data collectors interviewed caregivers of the deceased children and recorded illness symptoms, health care seeking, and other information using an abbreviated international verbal autopsy questionnaire. We classified the deceased based upon the presence of diarrhea before death. We identified 880 deaths, of which 36 (4%) died after the development of acute diarrhea, 17 (2%) had diarrhea-only in the illness preceding death, and 19 (53%) had cough or difficulty breathing in addition to diarrhea. The estimated annual incidence of all-cause mortality in the unions < 13.6 km of the tertiary hospitals was 26 (95% confidence interval [CI] 16-37) per 1,000 live births compared with the mortality rate of 37 (95% CI 26-49) per 1,000 live births in the unions located ≥ 13.6 km. Diarrhea contributes to childhood death at a higher proportion than when considering it only as the sole underlying cause of death. These data support the use of interventions aimed at preventing acute diarrhea, especially available vaccinations for common etiologies, such as rotavirus.

Estimates of seasonal influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh, 2010-2012

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza-associated mortality estimates help identify the burden of disease and assess the value of public health interventions such as annual influenza immunization. Vital registration is limited in Bangladesh making it difficult to estimate seasonal influenza mortality.

OBJECTIVES

Our study aimed to estimate seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates for 2010-2012 in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We conducted surveillance among hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) for persons aged ≥5 years and severe pneumonia for children <5 years in 11 sites across Bangladesh. We defined the catchment areas of these sites and conducted a community survey in 22 randomly selected unions (administrative units) within the catchment areas to identify respiratory deaths. We multiplied the proportion of influenza-positive patients at our surveillance sites by the age-specific number of respiratory deaths identified to estimate seasonal influenza-associated mortality.

RESULTS

Among 4221 surveillance case-patients, 553 (13%) were positive for influenza viruses. Concurrently, we identified 1191 persons who died within 2 weeks of developing an acute respiratory illness within the catchment areas of the surveillance hospitals. In 2010-2011, the estimated influenza-associated mortality rate was 6 (95% CI 4-9) per 100 000 for children <5 years and 41 (95% CI 35-47) per 100 000 for persons >60 years. During 2011-2012, the estimated influenza-associated mortality rate was 13 (95% CI 10-16) per 100 000 among children <5 years and 88 (95% CI 79-98) per 100 000 among persons aged >60 years.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a substantial burden of influenza-associated deaths in Bangladesh suggesting that the introduction of prevention and control measures including seasonal vaccination should be considered by local public health decision-makers.

Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data

BACKGROUND

The International Health Regulations outline core requirements to ensure the detection of public health threats of international concern. Assessing the capacity of surveillance systems to detect these threats is crucial for evaluating a country's ability to meet these requirements.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We propose a framework to evaluate the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance and apply it to severe neurological infectious diseases and fatal respiratory infectious diseases in Bangladesh. We identified cases in selected communities within surveillance hospital catchment areas using key informant and house-to-house surveys and ascertained where cases had sought care. We estimated the probability of surveillance detecting different sized outbreaks by distance from the surveillance hospital and compared characteristics of cases identified in the community and cases attending surveillance hospitals. We estimated that surveillance detected 26% (95% CI 18%-33%) of severe neurological disease cases and 18% (95% CI 16%-21%) of fatal respiratory disease cases residing at 10 km distance from a surveillance hospital. Detection probabilities decreased markedly with distance. The probability of detecting small outbreaks (three cases) dropped below 50% at distances greater than 26 km for severe neurological disease and at distances greater than 7 km for fatal respiratory disease. Characteristics of cases attending surveillance hospitals were largely representative of all cases; however, neurological disease cases aged <5 y or from the lowest socioeconomic group and fatal respiratory disease cases aged ≥60 y were underrepresented. Our estimates of outbreak detection rely on suspected cases that attend a surveillance hospital receiving laboratory confirmation of disease and being reported to the surveillance system. The extent to which this occurs will depend on disease characteristics (e.g., severity and symptom specificity) and surveillance resources.

CONCLUSION

We present a new approach to evaluating the sensitivity and representativeness of hospital-based surveillance, making it possible to predict its ability to detect emerging threats.

Comparison of the Estimated Incidence of Acute Leptospirosis in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania between 2007-08 and 2012-14

Background

The sole report of annual leptospirosis incidence in continental Africa of 75–102 cases per 100,000 population is from a study performed in August 2007 through September 2008 in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. To evaluate the stability of this estimate over time, we estimated the incidence of acute leptospirosis in Kilimanjaro Region, northern Tanzania for the time period 2012–2014.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Leptospirosis cases were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals in the Kilimanjaro Region. Leptospirosis was diagnosed by serum microscopic agglutination testing using a panel of 20 Leptospira serovars belonging to 17 separate serogroups. Serum was taken at enrolment and patients were asked to return 4–6 weeks later to provide convalescent serum. Confirmed cases required a 4-fold rise in titre and probable cases required a single titre of ≥800. Findings from a healthcare utilisation survey were used to estimate multipliers to adjust for cases not seen at sentinel hospitals. We identified 19 (1.7%) confirmed or probable cases among 1,115 patients who presented with a febrile illness. Of cases, the predominant reactive serogroups were Australis 8 (42.1%), Sejroe 3 (15.8%), Grippotyphosa 2 (10.5%), Icterohaemorrhagiae 2 (10.5%), Pyrogenes 2 (10.5%), Djasiman 1 (5.3%), Tarassovi 1 (5.3%). We estimated that the annual incidence of leptospirosis was 11–18 cases per 100,000 population. This was a significantly lower incidence than 2007–08 (p<0.001).

Conclusions

We estimated a much lower incidence of acute leptospirosis than previously, with a notable absence of cases due to the previously predominant serogroup Mini. Our findings indicate a dynamic epidemiology of leptospirosis in this area and highlight the value of multi-year surveillance to understand leptospirosis epidemiology.

Leptospirosis is an infectious disease that causes a fever. It can be severe or fatal. Understanding how many people get leptospirosis helps to determine priorities in allocating resources for disease diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. There are few data about leptospirosis incidence in sub-Saharan African countries. The only mainland estimate is from northern Tanzania for the years 2007–08. To see if leptospirosis incidence had changed since 2007–08, we measured leptospirosis incidence in the same location in 2012–2014. To do this, we systematically approached people at two hospitals in the Kilimanjaro Region and tested them for leptospirosis. We adjusted the number of identified cases of leptospirosis found at the hospitals to account for people with fever who did not come to hospital for testing and care. We also adjusted for imperfect testing methods. We found that the number of people who developed leptospirosis annually had dropped from 75–102 cases per 100,000 people during 2007–08 to 11–18 cases per 100,000 people during 2012–14. Also, the subtype of leptospirosis responsible for the most cases during 2007–08 was not present during 2012–14. The number of people developing leptospirosis was not stable, highlighting the value of measuring how commonly leptospirosis occurs over several years.

Estimating the burden of fungal disease in Vietnam

Data regarding the prevalence of fungal infections in Vietnam are limited yet they are likely to occur more frequently as increasingly sophisticated healthcare creates more iatrogenic risk factors. In this study, we sought to estimate baseline incidence and prevalence of selected serious fungal infections for the year 2012. We made estimates with a previously described actuarial method, using reports on the incidence and prevalence of various established risk factors for fungal infections from Vietnam, or similar environments, supplemented by personal communications. Global data were used if local data were unavailable. We estimated 2 352 748 episodes of serious fungal infection occurred in Vietnam in 2012. Frequent conditions included recurrent vaginal candidiasis (3893/100 000 women annually), tinea capitis (457/100 000 annually) and chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (61/100 000/5 year period). We estimated 140 cases of cryptococcal meningitis, 206 of penicilliosis and 608 of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia. This is the first summary of Vietnamese fungal infections. The majority of severe disease is due to Aspergillus species, driven by the high prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis. The AIDS epidemic highlights opportunistic infections, such as penicilliosis and cryptococcosis, which may complicate immunosuppressive treatments. These estimates provide a useful indication of disease prevalence to inform future research and resource allocation but should be verified by further epidemiological approaches.

Seasonal Distribution and Climatic Correlates of Dengue Disease in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dengue has been regularly reported in Dhaka, Bangladesh, since a large outbreak in 2000. However, to date, we have limited information on the seasonal distribution of dengue disease and how case distribution correlates with climate. Here, we analyzed dengue cases detected at a private diagnostic facility in Dhaka during 2010-2014. We calculated Pearson cross-correlation coefficients to examine the relationship between the timing of cases and both rainfall and temperature. There were 2,334 cases diagnosed during the study period with 76% over the age of 15 years. Cases were reported in every month of the study; however, 90% of cases occurred between June and November. Increases in rainfall were correlated with increases in cases 2 months later (correlation of 0.7). The large proportion of adult cases is consistent with substantial population susceptibility and suggests Dhaka remains at risk for outbreaks. Although cases occurred year-round, public health preparedness should be focused during peak months.

Sampling Design Influences the Observed Dominance of Culex tritaeniorhynchus: Considerations for Future Studies of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Transmission

Mosquito sampling during Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV)-associated studies, particularly in India, has usually been conducted via aspirators or light traps to catch mosquitoes around cattle, which are dead-end hosts for JEV. High numbers of Culex tritaeniorhynchus, relative to other species, have often been caught during these studies. Less frequently, studies have involved sampling outdoor resting mosquitoes. We aimed to compare the relative abundance of mosquito species between these two previously used mosquito sampling methods. From September to December 2013 entomological surveys were undertaken in eight villages in a Japanese encephalitis (JE) endemic area of Bangladesh. Light traps were used to collect active mosquitoes in households, and resting boxes and a Bina Pani Das hop cage were used near oviposition sites to collect resting mosquitoes. Numbers of humans and domestic animals present in households where light traps were set were recorded. In five villages Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was more likely to be selected from light trap samples near hosts than resting collection samples near oviposition sites, according to log odds ratio tests. The opposite was true for Cx. pseudovishnui and Armigeres subalbatus, which can also transmit JEV. Culex tritaeniorhynchus constituted 59% of the mosquitoes sampled from households with cattle, 28% from households without cattle and 17% in resting collections. In contrast Cx. pseudovishnui constituted 5.4% of the sample from households with cattle, 16% from households with no cattle and 27% from resting collections, while Ar. subalbatus constituted 0.15%, 0.38%, and 8.4% of these samples respectively. These observations may be due to differences in timing of biting activity, host preference and host-seeking strategy rather than differences in population density. We suggest that future studies aiming to implicate vector species in transmission of JEV should consider focusing catches around hosts able to transmit JEV.

The relative numbers of individuals of each mosquito species in an area are important to estimate when identifying species that contribute the most to vector-borne pathogen transmission. However, methods to sample mosquitoes and enumerate the number of individuals collected often vary in their catch efficacy between species. For example, species that take a bloodmeal during daylight hours are less likely to be caught using a light trap than a species that feeds predominantly at night. Similarly, sampling near a mammalian host will more likely collect mosquitoes with a preference for mammals than those with a preference for birds. In this study we compare sampling methods for assessing the relative abundance of mosquito species that may be involved in Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission. Collections near cattle- a species unable to transmit JEV- have been influential in implicating Cx. tritaeniorhynchus as the primary vector of JEV in South Asia, due to the high number of individuals of this species caught relative to other species. Indeed, this mosquito constituted the majority of the mosquitoes collected by light traps in households with cattle in this study. However, other species were more common when sampling households without cattle or resting mosquitoes near oviposition sites. We propose that methods used to sample mosquitoes in studies aiming to implicate species in JEV transmission in South Asia be reconsidered given that there are other mosquito species that are able to transmit JEV, and these species may be underrepresented when sampling using light traps near cattle.

Cultural and Economic Motivation of Pig Raising Practices in Bangladesh

The interactions that pig raisers in Bangladesh have with their pigs could increase the risk of zoonotic disease transmission. Since raising pigs is a cultural taboo to Muslims, we aimed at understanding the motivation for raising pigs and resulting practices that could pose the risk of transmitting disease from pigs to humans in Bangladesh, a predominantly Muslim country. These understandings could help identify acceptable strategies to reduce the risk of disease transmission from pigs to people. To achieve this objective, we conducted 34 in-depth interviews among pig herders and backyard pig raisers in eight districts of Bangladesh. Informants explained that pig raising is an old tradition, embedded in cultural and religious beliefs and practices, the primary livelihood of pig herders, and a supplemental income of backyard pig raisers. To secure additional income, pig raisers sell feces, liver, bile, and other pig parts often used as traditional medicine. Pig raisers have limited economic ability to change the current practices that may put them at risk of exposure to diseases from their pigs. An intervention that improves their financial situation and reduces the risk of zoonotic disease may be of interest to pig raisers.

Incidence of severe diarrhoea due to Vibrio cholerae in the catchment area of six surveillance hospitals in Bangladesh

Cholera is an important public health problem in Bangladesh. Interventions to prevent cholera depend on their cost-effectiveness which in turn depends on cholera incidence. Hospital-based diarrhoeal disease surveillance has been ongoing in six Bangladeshi hospitals where a systematic proportion of patients admitted with diarrhoea were enrolled and tested for Vibrio cholerae. However, incidence calculation using only hospital data underestimates the real disease burden because many ill persons seek treatment elsewhere. We conducted a healthcare utilization survey in the catchment areas of surveillance hospitals to estimate the proportion of severe diarrhoeal cases that were admitted to surveillance hospitals and estimated the population-based incidence of severe diarrhoea due to V. cholerae by combining both hospital surveillance and catchment area survey data. The estimated incidence of severe diarrhoea due to cholera ranged from 0.3 to 4.9/1000 population in the catchment area of surveillance hospitals. In children aged <5 years, incidence ranged from 1.0 to 11.0/1000 children. Diarrhoeal deaths were most common in the Chhatak Hospital's catchment area (18.5/100 000 population). This study provides a credible estimate of the incidence of severe diarrhoea due to cholera in Bangladesh, which can be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of cholera prevention activities.

Towards sustainable public health surveillance for enteric fever

Enteric fever that results from infection by the typhoidal Salmonellas (Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A, B and C) is a life-threatening preventable illness. Surveillance of enteric fever is important to understand current burden of disease, to track changes in human health burden from increasing antimicrobial resistance and to assess the impact of efforts to reduce disease burden. Since enteric fever occurs predominantly in low income communities, expensive surveillance is not sustainable. Traditional hospital-based surveillance does not estimate population burden and intensive community-based cohort studies do not capture the severe disease that is crucial to policy decisions. While cohort studies have been considered the gold standard for incidence estimates, the resources required to conduct them are great; as a consequence, estimates of enteric fever burden have been highly geographically and temporally restricted. A hybrid approach combining laboratory diagnosis that is already being conducted in healthcare centers with community-based surveillance of health care facility use offers a low-cost, sustainable approach to generate policy relevant data.

Epidemiology of Japanese encephalitis: past, present, and future prospects

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is one of severe viral encephalitis that affects individuals in Asia, western Pacific countries, and northern Australia. Although 67,900 JE cases have been estimated among 24 JE epidemic countries annually, only 10,426 have been reported in 2011. With the establishment of JE surveillance and vaccine use in some countries, the JE incidence rate has decreased; however, serious outbreaks still occur. Understanding JE epidemics and identifying the circulating JE virus genotypes will improve JE prevention and control. This review summarizes the current epidemiology data in these countries.

Expansion of syndromic vaccine preventable disease surveillance to include bacterial meningitis and Japanese encephalitis: evaluation of adapting polio and measles laboratory networks in Bangladesh, China and India, 2007-2008

BACKGROUND

Surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis with laboratory confirmation has been a key strategy in the global polio eradication initiative, and the laboratory platform established for polio testing has been expanded in many countries to include surveillance for cases of febrile rash illness to identify measles and rubella cases. Vaccine-preventable disease surveillance is essential to detect outbreaks, define disease burden, guide vaccination strategies and assess immunization impact. Vaccines now exist to prevent Japanese encephalitis (JE) and some etiologies of bacterial meningitis.

METHODS

We evaluated the feasibility of expanding polio-measles surveillance and laboratory networks to detect bacterial meningitis and JE, using surveillance for acute meningitis-encephalitis syndrome in Bangladesh and China and acute encephalitis syndrome in India. We developed nine syndromic surveillance performance indicators based on international surveillance guidelines and calculated scores using supervisory visit reports, annual reports, and case-based surveillance data.

RESULTS

Scores, variable by country and targeted disease, were highest for the presence of national guidelines, sustainability, training, availability of JE laboratory resources, and effectiveness of using polio-measles networks for JE surveillance. Scores for effectiveness of building on polio-measles networks for bacterial meningitis surveillance and specimen referral were the lowest, because of differences in specimens and techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

Polio-measles surveillance and laboratory networks provided useful infrastructure for establishing syndromic surveillance and building capacity for JE diagnosis, but were less applicable for bacterial meningitis. Laboratory-supported surveillance for vaccine-preventable bacterial diseases will require substantial technical and financial support to enhance local diagnostic capacity.

Serological evidence of henipavirus exposure in cattle, goats and pigs in Bangladesh

Background

Nipah virus (NiV) is an emerging disease that causes severe encephalitis and respiratory illness in humans. Pigs were identified as an intermediate host for NiV transmission in Malaysia. In Bangladesh, NiV has caused recognized human outbreaks since 2001 and three outbreak investigations identified an epidemiological association between close contact with sick or dead animals and human illness.

Methodology

We examined cattle and goats reared around Pteropus bat roosts in human NiV outbreak areas. We also tested pig sera collected under another study focused on Japanese encephalitis.

Principal Findings

We detected antibodies against NiV glycoprotein in 26 (6.5%) cattle, 17 (4.3%) goats and 138 (44.2%) pigs by a Luminex-based multiplexed microsphere assay; however, these antibodies did not neutralize NiV. Cattle and goats with NiVsG antibodies were more likely to have a history of feeding on fruits partially eaten by bats or birds (PR = 3.1, 95% CI 1.6–5.7) and drinking palmyra palm juice (PR = 3.9, 95% CI 1.5–10.2).

Conclusions

This difference in test results may be due to the exposure of animals to one or more novel viruses with antigenic similarity to NiV. Further research may identify a novel organism of public health importance.

Nipah virus (NiV), is an emerging disease that causes severe encephalitis and respiratory illness in humans. Pigs were identified as an intermediate host for NiV transmission in Malaysia, and in Bangladesh three NiV outbreak investigations since 2001 identified an epidemiological association between close contact with sick or dead animals and human illness. We collected samples from cattle and goats reared around Pteropus bat roosts in human NiV outbreak areas in Bangladesh, and tested pig sera collected for a Japanese encephalitis study. We detected antibodies against NiV glycoprotein in 26 (6.5%) cattle, 17 (4.3%) goats and 138 (44.2%) pigs by a Luminex-based multiplexed microsphere assay, but none were virus neutralizing. There may have been exposure of Luminex positive animals to one or more novel viruses with antigenic similarity to NiV. Further research may identify a novel organism of public health importance.

Strengthening the partnership between routine immunization and the global polio eradication initiative to achieve eradication and assure sustainability

Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988, the number of polio endemic countries has declined from 125 to 3 in 2013. Despite this remarkable achievement, ongoing circulation of wild poliovirus in polio-endemic countries and the increase in the number of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus cases, especially those caused by type 2, is a cause for concern. The Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan 2013-2018 (PEESP) was developed and includes 4 objectives: detection and interruption of poliovirus transmission, containment and certification, legacy planning, and a renewed emphasis on strengthening routine immunization (RI) programs. This is critical for the phased withdrawal of oral poliovirus vaccine, beginning with the type 2 component, and the introduction of a single dose of inactivated polio vaccine into RI programs. This objective has inspired renewed consideration of how the GPEI and RI programs can mutually benefit one another, how the infrastructure from the GPEI can be used to strengthen RI, and how a strengthened RI can facilitate polio eradication. The PEESP is the first GPEI strategic plan that places strong and clear emphasis on the necessity of improving RI to achieve and sustain global polio eradication.

Dynamics of Japanese encephalitis virus transmission among pigs in Northwest Bangladesh and the potential impact of pig vaccination

Background

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus infection can cause severe disease in humans, resulting in death or permanent neurologic deficits among survivors. Studies indicate that the incidence of JE is high in northwestern Bangladesh. Pigs are amplifying hosts for JE virus (JEV) and a potentially important source of virus in the environment. The objectives of this study were to describe the transmission dynamics of JEV among pigs in northwestern Bangladesh and estimate the potential impact of vaccination to reduce incidence among pigs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a comprehensive census of pigs in three JE endemic districts and tested a sample of them for evidence of previous JEV infection. We built a compartmental model to describe JEV transmission dynamics in this region and to estimate the potential impact of pig vaccination. We identified 11,364 pigs in the study area. Previous JEV infection was identified in 30% of pigs with no spatial differences in the proportion of pigs that were seropositive across the study area. We estimated that JEV infects 20% of susceptible pigs each year and the basic reproductive number among pigs was 1.2. The model suggest that vaccinating 50% of pigs each year resulted in an estimated 82% reduction in annual incidence in pigs.

Conclusions/Significance

The widespread distribution of historic JEV infection in pigs suggests they may play an important role in virus transmission in this area. Future studies are required to understand the contribution of pig infections to JE risk in humans and the potential impact of pig vaccination on human disease.

Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus infection can cause severe neurological disease in man. More JE cases are seen in northwestern districts in Bangladesh. Pigs are the most common amplifying host of the virus and can act as a potential environmental source. We conducted a comprehensive census of pigs in three JE endemic districts and tested a sample of them for evidence of previous JEV infection. We built a compartmental model to describe JEV transmission dynamics in this region and to estimate the potential impact of pig vaccination. We identified 11,364 pigs in our study area, mostly raised in backyards. About 30% of the pigs had evidence of previous JE virus infection. Our model suggests that vaccinating 50% of pigs each year resulted in an estimated 82% reduction in annual incidence in pigs. Pigs in northwestern Bangladesh may play a significant role in JE virus transmission. JE incidence may be substantially reduced through reasonable pig vaccination coverage.

Estimating leptospirosis incidence using hospital-based surveillance and a population-based health care utilization survey in Tanzania

Background

The incidence of leptospirosis, a neglected zoonotic disease, is uncertain in Tanzania and much of sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in scarce data on which to prioritize resources for public health interventions and disease control. In this study, we estimate the incidence of leptospirosis in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a population-based household health care utilization survey in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania and identified leptospirosis cases at two hospital-based fever sentinel surveillance sites in the Kilimanjaro Region. We used multipliers derived from the health care utilization survey and case numbers from hospital-based surveillance to calculate the incidence of leptospirosis. A total of 810 households were enrolled in the health care utilization survey and multipliers were derived based on responses to questions about health care seeking in the event of febrile illness. Of patients enrolled in fever surveillance over a 1 year period and residing in the 2 districts, 42 (7.14%) of 588 met the case definition for confirmed or probable leptospirosis. After applying multipliers to account for hospital selection, test sensitivity, and study enrollment, we estimated the overall incidence of leptospirosis ranges from 75–102 cases per 100,000 persons annually.

Conclusions/Significance

We calculated a high incidence of leptospirosis in two districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, where leptospirosis incidence was previously unknown. Multiplier methods, such as used in this study, may be a feasible method of improving availability of incidence estimates for neglected diseases, such as leptospirosis, in resource constrained settings.

Leptospirosis is a zoonotic infection that occurs worldwide and is caused by a spirochete, Leptospira spp. The incidence of leptospirosis is unknown in most of sub-Saharan Africa, including Tanzania. Incidence estimates are important in prioritizing resources for disease prevention and control. In this study, we calculated leptospirosis incidence in 2 districts in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania using a multiplier method. We used responses from a population-based survey that asked where participants and their household members would seek health care in the event of fever along with the number of leptospirosis cases found at 2 hospitals under surveillance to calculate estimated incidence. We calculated a high incidence of leptospirosis in the study area that was previously unrecognized. This has important implications for prioritizing further research and consideration of public health control measures for leptospirosis in Tanzania.

Influenza-associated mortality in 2009 in four sentinel sites in Bangladesh

OBJECTIVE

To estimate influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh in 2009.

METHODS

In four hospitals in Bangladesh, respiratory samples were collected twice a month throughout 2009 from inpatients aged < 5 years with severe pneumonia and from older inpatients with severe acute respiratory infection. The samples were tested for influenza virus ribonucleic acid (RNA) using polymerase chain reaction. The deaths in 2009 in five randomly selected unions (the smallest administrative units in Bangladesh) in each hospital's catchment area were then investigated using formal records and informal group discussions. The deaths of those who had reportedly died within 14 days of suddenly developing fever with cough and/or a sore throat were assumed to be influenza-associated. The rate of such deaths in 2009 in each of the catchment areas was then estimated from the number of apparently influenza-associated deaths in the sampled unions, the proportion of the sampled inpatients in the local hospital who tested positive for influenza virus RNA, and the estimated number of residents of the sampled unions.

FINDINGS

Of the 2500 people known to have died in 2009 in all 20 study unions, 346 (14%) reportedly had fever with cough and/or sore throat within 14 days of their deaths. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated mortality in these unions was 11 per 100,000 population: 1.5, 4.0 and 125 deaths per 100,000 among those aged < 5, 5-59 and > 59 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The highest burden of influenza-associated mortality in Bangladesh in 2009 was among the elderly.

Estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To update the estimated global incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) using recent data for the purpose of guiding prevention and control efforts.

METHODS

Thirty-two areas endemic for JE in 24 Asian and Western Pacific countries were sorted into 10 incidence groups on the basis of published data and expert opinion. Population-based surveillance studies using laboratory-confirmed cases were sought for each incidence group by a computerized search of the scientific literature. When no eligible studies existed for a particular incidence group, incidence data were extrapolated from related groups.

FINDINGS

A total of 12 eligible studies representing 7 of 10 incidence groups in 24 JE-endemic countries were identified. Approximately 67,900 JE cases typically occur annually (overall incidence: 1.8 per 100,000), of which only about 10% are reported to the World Health Organization. Approximately 33,900 (50%) of these cases occur in China (excluding Taiwan) and approximately 51,000 (75%) occur in children aged 0-14 years (incidence: 5.4 per 100,000). Approximately 55,000 (81%) cases occur in areas with well established or developing JE vaccination programmes, while approximately 12,900 (19%) occur in areas with minimal or no JE vaccination programmes.

CONCLUSION

Recent data allowed us to refine the estimate of the global incidence of JE, which remains substantial despite improvements in vaccination coverage. More and better incidence studies in selected countries, particularly China and India, are needed to further refine these estimates.