On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event

Natural Time Analysis of Global Seismicity

Natural time analysis enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, which is just the variance of natural time χ, κ1=⟨χ2⟩−⟨χ⟩2. During the last years, there has been significant progress in the natural time analysis of seismicity. Milestones in this progress are the identification of clearly distiguishable minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter κ1 of seismicity both in the regional and global scale, the emergence of an interrelation between the time correlations of the earthquake (EQ) magnitude time series and these minima, and the introduction by Turcotte, Rundle and coworkers of EQ nowcasting. Here, we apply all these recent advances in the global seismicity by employing the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. We show that the combination of the above three milestones may provide useful precursory information for the time of occurrence and epicenter location of strong EQs with M≥8.5 in GCMT. This can be achieved with high statistical significance (p-values of the order of 10−5), while the epicentral areas lie within a region covering only 4% of that investigated.

The impact of COVID-19 on turnover intention among hotel employees: A moderated mediation model

This study examines the influence of COVID-19 event strength on the turnover intention of hotel employees by incorporating perceived operating performance and job insecurity as mediators and hotel size as a moderator. A moderated mediation model was employed to test the relationship between COVID-19 event strength and turnover intention. The study reveals that COVID-19 event strength might not significantly affect turnover intention through perceived operating performance, likely affecting job insecurity perception. We infer that such a finding might result from a series of policies implemented by authorities to prevent job insecurity perception of hotel employees during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, we also reveal that small- and middle-sized hotels mitigate the effect of job insecurity on turnover intention somewhat different from our expectations. We infer that most of the entrepreneurs and employees in such hotels are from the same town and unlikely to intensify the effect of job insecurity on turnover intention because of close friendships among them. This finding is closely related to cultural factors in China and has rarely been discussed in the existing literature.

The Coastal El Niño Event of 2017 in Ecuador and Peru: A Weather Radar Analysis

The coastal regions of South Ecuador and Peru belong to the areas experiencing the strongest impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon. However, the impact and dynamic development of weather patterns during those events are not well understood, due to the sparse observational networks. In spite of neutral to cold conditions after the decaying 2015/16 El Niño in the central Pacific, the coastal region was hit by torrential rainfall in 2017 causing floods, erosion and landslides with many fatalities and significant damages to infrastructure. A new network of X-band weather radar systems in South Ecuador and North Peru allowed, for the first time, the spatio-temporally high-resolution monitoring of rainfall dynamics, also covering the 2017 event. Here, we compare this episode to the period 2014–2018 to point out the specific atmospheric process dynamics of this event. We found that isolated warming of the Niño 1 and 2 region sea surface temperature was the initial driver of the strong rainfall, but local weather patterns were modified by topography interacting with the synoptic situation. The high resolution radar data, for the first time, allowed to monitor previously unknown local spots of heavy rainfall during ENSO-related extreme events, associated with dynamic flow convergence initiated by low-level thermal breezes. Altogether, the coastal El Niño of 2017, at the same time, caused positive rainfall anomalies in the coastal plain and on the eastern slopes of the Andes, the latter normally associated only with La Niña events. Thus, the 2017 event must be attributed to the La Niña Modoki type.

Estimating the Epicenter of a Future Strong Earthquake in Southern California, Mexico, and Central America by Means of Natural Time Analysis and Earthquake Nowcasting

It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area N1035W80120. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude M ≥7.0 that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M ≥7.0 EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone covering only 8.5% of the total area.

Estimating the Epicenter of an Impending Strong Earthquake by Combining the Seismicity Order Parameter Variability Analysis with Earthquake Networks and Nowcasting: Application in the Eastern Mediterranean

The variance κ1 of the natural time analysis of earthquake catalogs was proposed in 2005 as an order parameter for seismicity, whose fluctuations proved, in 2011, to be minimized a few months before the strongest mainshock when studying the earthquakes in a given area. After the introduction of earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns, in 2012, the study of their higher order cores revealed, in 2019, the selection of appropriate areas in which the precursory minima βmin of the fluctuations β of the seismicity order parameter κ1 could be observed up to six months before all strong earthquakes above a certain threshold. The eastern Mediterranean region was studied in 2019, where all earthquakes of magnitude M≥7.1 were found to be preceded by βmin without any false alarm. Combining these results with the method of nowcasting earthquakes, introduced in 2016, for seismic risk estimation, here, we show that the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake can be estimated. This is achieved by employing—at the time of observing the βmin—nowcasting earthquakes in a square lattice grid in the study area and by averaging, self-consistently, the results obtained for the earthquake potential score. This is understood in the following context: The minimum βmin is ascertained to almost coincide with the onset of Seismic Electric Signals activity, which is accompanied by the development of long range correlations between earthquake magnitudes in the area that is a candidate for a mainshock.

Early successional dynamics of ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in the tropical dry forest ecosystem in Colombia

Little is known about the successional dynamics of insects in the highly threatened tropical dry forest (TDF) ecosystem. For the first time, we studied the response of carabid beetles to vegetal succession and seasonality in this ecosystem in Colombia. Carabid beetles were collected from three TDF habitat types in two regions in Colombia: initial successional state (pasture), early succession, and intermediate succession (forest). The surveys were performed monthly for 13 months in one of the regions (Armero) and during two months, one in the dry and one in the wet season, in the other region (Cambao). A set of environmental variables were recorded per month at each site. Twenty-four carabid beetle species were collected during the study. Calosoma alternans and Megacephala affinis were the most abundant species, while most species were of low abundance. Forest and pasture beetle assemblages were distinct, while the early succession assemblage overlapped with these assemblages. Canopy cover, litter depth, and soil and air temperatures were important in structuring the assemblages. Even though seasonality did not affect the carabid beetle assemblage, individual species responded positively to the wet season. It is shown that early successional areas in TDF could potentially act as habitat corridors for species to recolonize forest areas, since these successional areas host a number of species that inhabit forests and pastures. Climatic variation, like the El Niño episode during this study, appears to affect the carabid beetle assemblage negatively, exasperating concerns of this already threatened tropical ecosystem.

Following the infection dynamics of the tropical trematode Oligogonotylus mayae in its intermediate and definitive hosts for 13 years

We present a time series of 13 years (2003-2016) of continuous monthly data on the prevalence and mean abundance of the trematode Oligogonotylus mayae for all the hosts involved in its life cycle. We aimed to determine whether annual (or longer than annual) environmental fluctuations affect these infection parameters of O. mayae in its intermediate snail host Pyrgophorus coronatus, and its second and definitive fish host Mayaheros urophthalmus from the Celestun tropical coastal lagoon, Yucatan, Mexico. Fourier time series analysis was used to identify infection peaks over time, and cross-correlation among environmental forcings and infection parameters. Our results suggest that the transmission of O. mayae in all its hosts was influenced by the annual patterns of temperature, salinity and rainfall. However, there was a biannual accumulation of metacercarial stages of O. mayae in M. urophthalmus, apparently associated with the temporal range of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (five years) and the recovery of the trematode population after a devasting hurricane. Taking O. mayae as an example of what could be happening to other trematodes, it is becoming clear that environmental forcings acting at long-term temporal scales affect the population dynamics of these parasites.

Natural Time Analysis of Seismicity within the Mexican Flat Slab before the M7.1 Earthquake on 19 September 2017

One of the most important subduction zones in the world is located in the Mexican Pacific Coast, where the Cocos plate inserts beneath the North American plate. One part of it is located in the Mexican Pacific Coast, where the Cocos plate inserts beneath the North American plate with different dip angles, showing important seismicity. Under the central Mexican area, such a dip angle becomes practically horizontal and such an area is known as flat slab. An earthquake of magnitude M7.1 occurred on 19 September 2017, the epicenter of which was located in this flat slab. It caused important human and material losses of urban communities including a large area of Mexico City. The seismicity recorded in the flat slab region is analyzed here in natural time from 1995 until the occurrence of this M7.1 earthquake in 2017 by studying the entropy change under time reversal and the variability β of the order parameter of seismicity as well as characterize the risk of an impending earthquake by applying the nowcasting method. The entropy change ΔS under time reversal minimizes on 21 June 2017 that is almost one week after the observation of such a minimum in the Chiapas region where a magnitude M8.2 earthquake took place on 7 September 2017 being Mexico’s largest quake in more than a century. A minimum of β was also observed during the period February–March 2017. Moreover, we show that, after the minimum of ΔS, the order parameter of seismicity starts diminishing, thus approaching gradually the critical value 0.070 around the end of August and the beginning of September 2017, which signals that a strong earthquake is anticipated shortly in the flat slab.

Understanding marine larval dispersal in a broadcast-spawning invertebrate: A dispersal modelling approach for optimising spat collection of the Fijian black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera

Fisheries and aquaculture industries worldwide remain reliant on seed supply from wild populations, with their success and sustainability dependent on consistent larval recruitment. Larval dispersal and recruitment in the marine environment are complex processes, influenced by a multitude of physical and biological factors. Biophysical modelling has increasingly been used to investigate dispersal and recruitment dynamics, for optimising management of fisheries and aquaculture resources. In the Fiji Islands, culture of the black-lip pearl oyster (Pinctada margaritifera) is almost exclusively reliant on wild-caught juvenile oysters (spat), through a national spat collection programme. This study used a simple Lagrangian particle dispersal model to investigate current-driven larval dispersal patterns, identify potential larval settlement areas and compare simulated with physical spat-fall, to inform targeted spat collection efforts. Simulations successfully identified country-wide patterns of potential larval dispersal and settlement from 2012–2015, with east-west variations between bi-annual spawning peaks and circulation associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation. Localised regions of larval aggregation were also identified and compared to physical spat-fall recorded at 28 spat collector deployment locations. Significant and positive correlations at these sites across three separate spawning seasons (r(26) = 0.435; r(26) = 0.438; r(26) = 0.428 respectively, p = 0.02), suggest high utility of the model despite its simplicity, for informing future spat collector deployment. Simulation results will further optimise black-lip pearl oyster spat collection activity in Fiji by informing targeted collector deployments, while the model provides a versatile and highly informative toolset for the fishery management and aquaculture of other marine taxa with similar life histories.

On the Statistical Significance of the Variability Minima of the Order Parameter of Seismicity by Means of Event Coincidence Analysis

Natural time analysis has led to the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity when considering earthquakes as critical phenomena. The study of the fluctuations of this order parameter has shown that its variability exhibits minima before strong earthquakes. In this paper, we evaluate the statistical significance of such minima by using the recent method of event coincidence analysis. Our study includes the variability minima identified before major earthquakes in Japan and Eastern Mediterranean as well as in global seismicity.

Comparative Analysis of the Soluble Proteome and the Cytolytic Activity of Unbleached and Bleached Millepora complanata ("Fire Coral") from the Mexican Caribbean

Coral bleaching caused by global warming has resulted in massive damage to coral reefs worldwide. Studies addressing the consequences of elevated temperature have focused on organisms of the class Anthozoa, and up to now, there is little information regarding the mechanisms by which reef forming Hydrozoans face thermal stress. In this study, we carried out a comparative analysis of the soluble proteome and the cytolytic activity of unbleached and bleached Millepora complanata ("fire coral") that inhabited reef colonies exposed to the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Mexican Caribbean. A differential proteomic response involving proteins implicated in key cellular processes, such as glycolysis, DNA repair, stress response, calcium homeostasis, exocytosis, and cytoskeleton organization was found in bleached hydrocorals. Four of the proteins, whose levels increased in bleached specimens, displayed sequence similarity to a phospholipase A2, an astacin-like metalloprotease, and two pore forming toxins. However, a protein, which displayed sequence similarity to a calcium-independent phospholipase A2, showed lower levels in bleached cnidarians. Accordingly, the hemolytic effect of the soluble proteome of bleached hydrocorals was significantly higher, whereas the phospholipase A2 activity was significantly reduced. Our results suggest that bleached M. complanata is capable of increasing its toxins production in order to balance the lack of nutrients supplied by its symbionts.

A multi-class classification system for continuous water quality monitoring

The issue addressed in this exposition is the classification of multivariate data collected through different sensors for water quality monitoring. Multivariate data are sequences that have various attributes in every instance of the sequences. A few endeavours exist to address this issue; however, none of them has given full emphasis on continuous dataset. Another solution for this issue is to reduce the instances to a single attribute while losing significant information. Different arrangements address both the multivariate and the sequential part of the data yet give an un-versatile solution. The proposed algorithm is not only able to monitor continuous water quality, but it also produces a better classification model for other continuous datasets as well. Instead of decreasing the attributes of the dataset, we introduce three additional reference indicators which are dependent on the actual attributes. We compare the classification accuracy of our proposed algorithm with standard classification models. The proposed method gives better classification accuracy compared to existing methods.

Effects of ENSO on Temperature, Precipitation, and Potential Evapotranspiration of North India’s Monsoon: An Analysis of Trend and Entropy

The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the north Indian temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) change patterns were evaluated during the monsoon season across the last century. Trends and shifts in 146 districts were assessed using nonparametric statistical tests. To quantify their temporal variation, the concept of apportionment entropy was applied to both the annual and seasonal scales. Results suggest that the El Niño years played a greater role in causing hydro-climatological changes compared to the La Niña or neutral years. El Niño was more influential in causing shifts compared to trends. For certain districts, a phase change in ENSO reversed the trend/shift direction. The century-wide analysis suggested that the vast majority of the districts experienced significant decreasing trends/shifts in temperature and PET. However, precipitation experienced both increasing and decreasing trends/shifts based on the location of the districts. Entropy results suggested a lower apportionment of precipitation compared to the other variables, indicating an intermittent deviation of precipitation pattern from the generic trend. The findings may help understand the effects of ENSO on the hydro-climatological variables during the monsoon season. Practitioners may find the results useful as monsoon is the most important season for India causing climate extremes.

Water quality variation during a strong El Niño event in 2016: a case study in Kampar River, Malaysia

El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural forcing that affects global climate patterns, thereon influencing freshwater quality and security. In the advent of a strong El Niño warming event in 2016 which induced an extreme dry weather in Malaysia, water quality variation was investigated in Kampar River which supplies potable water to a population of 92,850. Sampling points were stratified into four ecohydrological units and 144 water samples were examined from October 2015 to March 2017. The Malaysian Water Quality Index (WQI) and some supplementary parameters were analysed in the context of reduced precipitation. Data shows that prolonged dry weather, episodic and sporadic pollution incidents have caused some anomalies in dissolved oxygen (DO), total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity and ammoniacal nitrogen (AN) values recorded and the possible factors are discussed. The month of March and August 2016 recorded the lowest precipitation, but the overall resultant WQI remained acceptable. Since the occurrence of a strong El Niño event is infrequent and far between in decadal time scale, this paper gives some rare insights that may be central to monitoring and managing freshwater resource that has a crucial impact to the mass population in the region of Southeast Asia.

Integrative overview of the herpetofauna from Serra da Mocidade, a granitic mountain range in northern Brazil

The Brazilian mountain ranges from the Guiana Shield highlands are largely unexplored, with an understudied herpetofauna. Here the amphibian and reptile species diversity of the remote Serra da Mocidade mountain range, located in extreme northern Brazil, is reported upon, and biogeographical affinities and taxonomic highlights are discussed. A 22-days expedition to this mountain range was undertaken during which specimens were sampled at four distinct altitudinal levels (600, 960, 1,060 and 1,365 m above sea level) using six complementary methods. Specimens were identified through an integrated approach that considered morphological, bioacoustical, and molecular analyses. Fifty-one species (23 amphibians and 28 reptiles) were found, a comparable richness to other mountain ranges in the region. The recorded assemblage showed a mixed compositional influence from assemblages typical of other mountain ranges and lowland forest habitats in the region. Most of the taxa occupying the Serra da Mocidade mountain range are typical of the Guiana Shield or widely distributed in the Amazon. Extensions of known distribution ranges and candidate undescribed taxa are also recorded. This is the first herpetofaunal expedition that accessed the higher altitudinal levels of this mountain range, contributing to the basic knowledge of these groups in remote areas.

Swept away: ocean currents and seascape features influence genetic structure across the 18,000 Km Indo-Pacific distribution of a marine invertebrate, the black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera

BACKGROUND

Genetic structure in many widely-distributed broadcast spawning marine invertebrates remains poorly understood, posing substantial challenges for their fishery management, conservation and aquaculture. Under the Core-Periphery Hypothesis (CPH), genetic diversity is expected to be highest at the centre of a species' distribution, progressively decreasing with increased differentiation towards outer range limits, as populations become increasingly isolated, fragmented and locally adapted. The unique life history characteristics of many marine invertebrates such as high dispersal rates, stochastic survival and variable recruitment are also likely to influence how populations are organised. To examine the microevolutionary forces influencing population structure, connectivity and adaptive variation in a highly-dispersive bivalve, populations of the black-lip pearl oyster Pinctada margaritifera were examined across its ~18,000 km Indo-Pacific distribution.

RESULTS

Analyses utilising 9,624 genome-wide SNPs and 580 oysters, discovered differing patterns of significant and substantial broad-scale genetic structure between the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. Indian Ocean populations were markedly divergent (F st = 0.2534-0.4177, p < 0.001), compared to Pacific Ocean oysters, where basin-wide gene flow was much higher (F st = 0.0007-0.1090, p < 0.001). Partitioning of genetic diversity (hierarchical AMOVA) attributed 18.1% of variance between ocean basins, whereas greater proportions were resolved within samples and populations (45.8% and 35.7% respectively). Visualisation of population structure at selectively neutral loci resolved three and five discrete genetic clusters for the Indian and Pacific Oceans respectively. Evaluation of genetic structure at adaptive loci for Pacific populations (89 SNPs under directional selection; F st = 0.1012-0.4371, FDR = 0.05), revealed five clusters identical to those detected at neutral SNPs, suggesting environmental heterogeneity within the Pacific. Patterns of structure and connectivity were supported by Mantel tests of isolation by distance (IBD) and independent hydrodynamic particle dispersal simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

It is evident that genetic structure and connectivity across the natural range of P. margaritifera is highly complex, and produced by the interaction of ocean currents, IBD and seascape features at a broad scale, together with habitat geomorphology and local adaptation at regional levels. Overall population organisation is far more elaborate than generalised CPH predictions, however valuable insights for regional fishery management, and a greater understanding of range-wide genetic structure in a highly-dispersive marine invertebrate have been gained.