Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study

Olfaction in the Anthropocene: NO3 negatively affects floral scent and nocturnal pollination

There is growing concern about sensory pollutants affecting ecological communities. Anthropogenically enhanced oxidants [ozone (O3) and nitrate radicals (NO3)] rapidly degrade floral scents, potentially reducing pollinator attraction to flowers. However, the physiological and behavioral impacts on pollinators and plant fitness are unknown. Using a nocturnal flower-moth system, we found that atmospherically relevant concentrations of NO3 eliminate flower visitation by moths, and the reaction of NO3 with a subset of monoterpenes is what reduces the scent's attractiveness. Global atmospheric models of floral scent oxidation reveal that pollinators in certain urban areas may have a reduced ability to perceive and navigate to flowers. These results illustrate the impact of anthropogenic pollutants on an animal's olfactory ability and indicate that such pollutants may be critical regulators of global pollination.

Dynamic evaluation of modeled ozone concentrations in Germany with four chemistry transport models

Simulating the ozone variability at regional scales using chemistry transport models (CTMs) remains a challenge. We designed a multi-model intercomparison to evaluate, for the first time, four regional CTMs on a national scale for Germany. Simulations were conducted with LOTOS-EUROS, REM-CALGRID, COSMO-MUSCAT and WRF-Chem for January 1st to December 31st, 2019, using prescribed emission information. In general, all models show good performance in the operational evaluation with average temporal correlations of MDA8 O3 in the range of 0.77-0.87 and RMSE values between 16.3 μg m-3 and 20.6 μg m-3. On average, better models' skill has been observed for rural background stations than for the urban background stations as well as for springtime compared to summertime. Our study confirms that the ensemble mean provides a better model-measurement agreement than individual models. All models capture the larger local photochemical production in summer compared to springtime and observed differences between the urban and the rural background. We introduce a new indicator to evaluate the dynamic response of ozone to temperature. During summertime a large ensemble spread in the ozone sensitivities to temperature is found with (on average) an underestimation of the ozone sensitivity to temperature, which can be linked to a systematic underestimation of mid-level ozone concentrations. During springtime we observed an ozone episode that is not covered by the models which is likely due to deficiencies in the representation of background ozone in the models. We recommend to focus on a diagnostic evaluation aimed at the model descriptions for biogenic emissions and dry deposition as a follow up and to repeat the operational and dynamic analysis for longer timeframes.

Distinct seasonality in vertical variations of tropospheric ozone over coastal regions of southern China

The surface ozone pollution is strongly coupled with ozone variations above the ground. Using sufficient airborne ozone profiles during 2012-2018, this study reveals the tropospheric ozone distributions over four cities located in coastal regions of southern China. The 7-year mean tropospheric ozone profiles in the four cities consistently show a double-maxima profile, with a local maximum at 1 km altitude and the other in the middle-to-upper troposphere. Seasonally, springtime ozone is larger than the annual mean throughout the troposphere, while ozone in summer is high in the middle-to-upper troposphere, leading to largest vertical variations among seasons. Ozone in the middle-to-upper troposphere is lower in autumn than in spring and summer. The winter ozone is characterized with a minimum in the lower troposphere, and low values in the middle-to-upper troposphere, leading to least vertical variations among seasons. We untangle the causes for these complicated vertical ozone variations using the GEOS-Chem model. The tropospheric ozone over southern China is partitioned into locally produced ozone, regionally transported native ozone, imported ozone from outside of China (foreign ozone) and natural stratospheric ozone. The results suggest that the springtime ozone abundance is due to the enhanced import of foreign and stratospheric ozone and the intensified regional transport processes of native ozone. In summer, local ozone production is enhanced and regional transport of ozone in the middle-to-upper troposphere is strengthened due to upward air motions, while such transport becomes weaker in autumn leaving low ozone in the middle-to-upper troposphere. In winter, the intensive westerly jets promote foreign and stratospheric ozone again in the middle-to-upper troposphere, but the local ozone production and regional transport are sharply reduced, resulting in low ozone near the surface. This study provides new insights into regional ozone profiles and reveals the significance of vertical ozone variations on surface ozone prevention strategy.

Removal of gaseous volatile organic compounds via vacuum ultraviolet photodegradation: Review and prospect

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have attracted much attention for decades as they are the precursors of photochemical smog and are harmful to the environment and human health. Vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) photodegradation is a simple and effective method to decompose VOCs (ranging from tens to hundreds of ppmV) without additional oxidants or catalysts in the air at atmospheric pressure. In this paper, we review the research progress of VOCs removal via VUV photodegradation. The fundamentals are outlined and the key operation factors for VOCs degradation, such as humidity, oxygen content, VOCs initial concentration, light intensity, and flow rate, are discussed. VUV photodegradation of VOCs mixture is elucidated. The application of VUV photodegradation in combination with ozone-assisted catalytic oxidation (OZCO) and photocatalytic oxidation (PCO) systems, and as the pre-treatment technique for biological purification are illustrated. Based on the summary, we propose the challenges of VUV photodegradation and perspectives for its future development.

The Earth-Observing Aqua Satellite Mission: 20 Years and Counting

The Earth-observing Aqua spacecraft was launched on 4 May 2002 and has now completed 20 years of collecting and transmitting data regarding the Earth's radiation budget, atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice. Although launched with a design life of 6 years, four of its instruments continue to operate and provide high-quality data streams more than 20 years after launch. The Aqua data are readily available to users worldwide and have been used in thousands of scientific publications and in numerous practical applications, including weather forecasting, air-quality assessments, and monitoring of forest fires, dust storms, volcanic ash plumes, oil spills, and crop yields.

Updated trends for atmospheric mercury in the Arctic: 1995-2018

The Arctic region forms a unique environment with specific physical, chemical, and biological processes affecting mercury (Hg) cycles and limited anthropogenic Hg sources. However, historic global emissions and long range atmospheric transport has led to elevated Hg in Arctic wildlife and waterways. Continuous atmospheric Hg measurements, spanning 20 years, and increased monitoring sites has allowed a more comprehensive understanding of how Arctic atmospheric mercury is changing over time. Time-series trend analysis of TGM (Total Gaseous Mercury) in air was performed from 10 circumpolar air monitoring stations, comprising of high-Arctic, and sub-Arctic sites. GOM (gaseous oxidised mercury) and PHg (particulate bound mercury) measurements were also available at 2 high-Arctic sites. Seasonal mean TGM for sub-Arctic sites were lowest during fall ranging from 1.1 ng m^-3 Hyytiälä to 1.3 ng m^-3, Little Fox Lake. Mean TGM concentrations at high-Arctic sites showed the greatest variability, with highest daily means in spring ranging between 4.2 ng m^-3 at Amderma and 2.4 ng m^-3 at Zeppelin, largely driven by local chemistry. Annual TGM trend analysis was negative for 8 of the 10 sites. High-Arctic seasonal TGM trends saw smallest decline during summer. Fall trends ranged from -0.8% to -2.6% yr^-1. Across the sub-Arctic sites spring showed the largest significant decreases, ranging between -7.7% to -0.36% yr^-1, while fall generally had no significant trends. High-Arctic speciation of GOM and PHg at Alert and Zeppelin showed that the timing and composition of atmospheric mercury deposition events are shifting. Alert GOM trends are increasing throughout the year, while PHg trends decreased or not significant. Zeppelin saw the opposite, moving towards increasing PHg and decreasing GOM. Atmospheric mercury trends over the last 20 years indicate that Hg concentrations are decreasing across the Arctic, though not uniformly. This is potentially driven by environmental change, such as plant productivity and sea ice dynamics.

Atmospheric transport drives regional interactions of ozone pollution in China

In recent years, ozone pollution becomes a serious environmental issue in China. A good understanding of source-receptor relationships of ozone transport from aboard and inside China is beneficial to mitigating ozone pollution there. To date, these issues have not been comprehensively assessed, especially for highly polluted regions in the central and eastern China (CEC), including the North China Plain (NCP), Twain-Hu region (THR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD), and Sichuan Basin (SCB). Here, based on simulations over 2013-2020 from a well-validated chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, we show that foreign ozone accounts for a large portion of surface ozone over CEC, ranging from 25.0% in THR to 39.4% in NCP. Focusing on transport of domestic ozone between the five regions in CEC, we find that atmospheric transport can largely modulate regional interactions of ozone pollution in China. At the surface, THR receives the largest amount of ozone from the other four regions (54.2% of domestic ozone in the receptor region, the same in below), followed by PRD (32.3%), SCB (26.7%), YRD (21.1%), and NCP (18.0%). Meanwhile, YRD exports largest amount of ozone to the other regions, ranging from 8.9% in SCB to 28.4% in THR. Although SCB is relatively isolated and thus impacts NCP, YRD, and PRD weakly (< 2.2%), export of SCB ozone to THR reaches 9.3%. The regional ozone transport over CEC, occurring mostly in the lower troposphere, is mainly modulated by the East Asian monsoon circulations, proximity between source and receptor regions, seasonal changes of ozone production, and topography.

Evaluating the Impact of Chemical Complexity and Horizontal Resolution on Tropospheric Ozone Over the Conterminous US With a Global Variable Resolution Chemistry Model

A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM-chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM-chem-SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM-chem-SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM-chem-SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0). Here, MUSICAv0 is evaluated and used to better understand how horizontal resolution and chemical complexity impact ozone and ozone precursors over CONUS as compared to measurements from five aircraft campaigns, which occurred in 2013. This field campaign analysis demonstrates the importance of using finer horizontal resolution to accurately simulate ozone precursors such as nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide. In general, the impact of using more complex chemistry on ozone and other oxidation products is more pronounced when using finer horizontal resolution where a larger number of chemical regimes are resolved. Large model biases for ozone near the surface remain in the Southeast US as compared to the aircraft observations even with updated chemistry and finer horizontal resolution. This suggests a need for adding the capability of replacing sections of global emission inventories with regional inventories, increasing the vertical resolution in the planetary boundary layer, and reducing model biases in meteorological variables such as temperature and clouds.

Legislative and functional aspects of different metrics used for ozone risk assessment to forests

Surface ozone (O₃) is a threat to forests by decreasing photosynthesis and, consequently, influencing the strength of land carbon sink. However, due to the lack of continuous surface O₃ measurements, observational-based assessments of O₃ impacts on forests are largely missing at hemispheric to global scales. Currently, some metrics are used for regulatory purposes by governments or national agencies to protect forests against the negative impacts of ozone: in particular, both Europe and United States (US) makes use of two different exposure-based metrics, i.e. AOT40 and W126, respectively. However, because of some limitations in these metrics, a new standard is under consideration by the European Union (EU) to replace the current exposure metric. We analyse here the different air quality standards set or proposed for use in Europe and in the US to protect forests from O₃ and to evaluate their spatial and temporal consistency while assessing their effectiveness in protecting northern-hemisphere forests. Then, we compare their results with the information obtained from a complex land surface model (ORCHIDEE). We find that present O₃ uptake decreases gross primary production (GPP) in 37.7% of the NH forested area of northern hemisphere with a mean loss of 2.4% year^-1. We show how the proposed US (W126) and the currently used European (AOT40) air quality standards substantially overestimate the extension of potential vulnerable regions, predicting that 46% and 61% of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forested area are at risk of O₃ pollution. Conversely, the new proposed European standard (POD1) identifies lower extension of vulnerability regions (39.6%).

Modeling stratospheric intrusion and trans-Pacific transport on tropospheric ozone using hemispheric CMAQ during April 2010 - Part 2: Examination of emission impacts based on the higher-order decoupled direct method

The state-of-the-science Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, which has recently been extended for hemispheric-scale modeling applications (referred to as H-CMAQ), is applied to study the trans-Pacific transport, a phenomenon recognized as a potential source of air pollution in the US, during April 2010. The results of this analysis are presented in two parts. In the previous paper (Part 1), model evaluation for tropospheric ozone (O3) was presented and an air mass characterization method was developed. Results from applying this newly established method pointed to the importance of emissions as the factor to enhance the surface O3 mixing ratio over the US. In this subsequent paper (Part 2), emission impacts are examined based on mathematically rigorous sensitivity analysis using the higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) implemented in H-CMAQ. The HDDM sensitivity coefficients indicate the presence of a NO x -sensitive regime during April 2010 over most of the Northern Hemisphere. By defining emission source regions over the US and east Asia, impacts from these emission sources are examined. At the surface, during April 2010, the emission impacts of the US and east Asia are comparable over the western US with a magnitude of about 3ppbv impacts on monthly mean O3 all-hour basis, whereas the impact of domestic emissions dominates over the eastern US with a magnitude of about 10ppbv impacts on monthly mean O3. The positive correlation (r = 0.63) between surface O3 mixing ratios and domestic emission impacts is confirmed. In contrast, the relationship between surface O3 mixing ratios and emission impacts from east Asia exhibits a flat slope when considering the entire US. However, this relationship has strong regional differences between the western and eastern US; the western region exhibits a positive correlation (r = 0.36-0.38), whereas the latter exhibits a flat slope (r <0.1). Based on the comprehensive evaluation of H-CMAQ, we extend the sensitivity analysis for O3 aloft. The results reveal the significant impacts of emissions from east Asia on the free troposphere (defined as 750 to 250hPa) over the US (impacts of more than 5ppbv) and the dominance of stratospheric air mass on upper model layer (defined as 250 to 50hPa) over the US (impacts greater than 10ppbv). Finally, we estimate changes of trans-Pacific transport by taking into account recent emission trends from 2010 to 2015 assuming the same meteorological condition. The analysis suggests that the impact of recent emission changes on changes in the contribution of trans-Pacific transport to US O3 levels was insignificant at the surface level and was small (less than 1ppbv) over the free troposphere.

Model Inter-Comparison for PM2.5 Components over urban Areas in Japan in the J-STREAM Framework

A model inter-comparison of secondary pollutant simulations over urban areas in Japan, the first phase of Japan’s study for reference air quality modeling (J-STREAM Phase I), was conducted using 32 model settings. Simulated hourly concentrations of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which are primary pollutant precursors of particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5), showed good agreement with the observed concentrations, but most of the simulated hourly sulfur oxide (SO2) concentrations were much higher than the observations. Simulated concentrations of PM2.5 and its components were compared to daily observed concentrations by using the filter pack method at selected ambient air pollution monitoring stations (AAPMSs) for each season. In general, most models showed good agreement with the observed total PM2.5 mass concentration levels in each season and provided goal or criteria levels of model ensemble statistics in warmer seasons. The good performances of these models were associated with the simulated reproducibility of some dominant components, sulfates (SO42−) and ammonium (NH4+). The other simulated PM2.5 components, i.e., nitrates (NO3−), elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC), often show clear deviations from the observations. The considerable underestimations (approximately 30 µg/m3 for total PM2.5) of all participant models found on heavily polluted days with approximately 40–50 µg/m3 for total PM2.5 indicated some problems in the simulated local meteorology such as the atmospheric stability. This model inter-comparison suggests that these deviations may be owing to a need for further improvements both in the emission inventories and additional formation pathways in chemical transport models, and meteorological conditions also require improvement to simulate elevated atmospheric pollutants. Additional accumulated observations are likely needed to further evaluate the simulated concentrations and improve the model performance.

Sensitivity of Nitrate Aerosol Production to Vehicular Emissions in an Urban Street

This study investigated the sensitivity of nitrate aerosols to vehicular emissions in urban streets using a coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)–chemistry model. Nitrate concentrations were highest at the street surface level following NH3 emissions from vehicles, indicating that ammonium nitrate formation occurs under NH3-limited conditions in street canyons. Sensitivity simulations revealed that the nitrate concentration has no clear relationship with the NOx emission rate, showing nitrate changes of only 2% across among 16 time differences in NOx emissions. NOx emissions show a conflicting effect on nitrate production via decreasing O3 and increasing NO2 concentrations under a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regime for O3 production. The sensitivity simulations also show that nitrate aerosol is proportional to vehicular VOC and NH3 emissions in the street canyon. Changes of VOC emissions affect the nitrate aerosol and HNO3 concentrations through changes in the O3 concentration under a VOC-limited regime for O3 production. Nitrate aerosol concentration is influenced by vehicular NH3 emissions, which produce ammonium nitrate effectively under an NH3-limited regime for nitrate production. This research suggests that, when vehicular emissions are dominant in winter, the control of vehicular VOC and NH3 emissions might be a more effective way to degrade PM2.5 problems than the control of NOx.

Ambient air pollution and the risk of stillbirth: a population-based prospective birth cohort study in the coastal area of China

Accumulating evidence has shown that prenatal ambient air pollution exposure is associated with elevated stillbirth risk; however, the results are inconsistent. This population-based prospective cohort study aimed to explore the association between prenatal air pollution exposure and stillbirth rate in the coastal area in China. Data of air pollution and birth outcomes between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2017, were collected. Among the 59,868 eligible births, there were 587 stillbirths and 59,281 live births. Although the air quality in this study was relatively better than most of the major cities in China, a positive association was still found between prenatal air pollution exposure and stillbirth rate. Every 10 μg/m³ increase of fine particulate matters (PM_2.5) in each trimester, as well as in the entire pregnancy, was associated with increased stillbirth rate (RR = 1.14, 1.11, 1.15, and 1.14 for the first, second, third trimester, and entire pregnancy, respectively). In addition, every 10 μg/m³ increase of PM₁₀ in the first trimester (RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04-1.14), and 10 μg/m³ increase of O₃ in the first (RR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01-1.09) and third (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.08) trimesters was also associated with increased stillbirth rate. The effects of PM_2.5 on stillbirth rate were found to be robust in the two-pollutant models. The findings of this study especially underscored the adverse effects of prenatal exposure of high levels of PM_2.5 on stillbirth. More studies are needed to verify our findings and further investigate the underlying mechanisms.

Seasonal ozone vertical profiles over North America using the AQMEII3 group of air quality models: model inter-comparison and stratospheric intrusions

This study evaluates simulated vertical ozone profiles produced in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3) against ozonesonde observations in North America for the year 2010. Four research groups from the United States (US) and Europe have provided modeled ozone vertical profiles to conduct this analysis. Because some of the modeling systems differ in their meteorological drivers, wind speed and temperature are also included in the analysis. In addition to the seasonal ozone profile evaluation for 2010, we also analyze chemically inert tracers designed to track the influence of lateral boundary conditions on simulated ozone profiles within the modeling domain. Finally, cases of stratospheric ozone intrusions during May-June 2010 are investigated by analyzing ozonesonde measurements and the corresponding model simulations at Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Ozonesonde Network Study (IONS) experiment sites in the western United States. The evaluation of the seasonal ozone profiles reveals that, at a majority of the stations, ozone mixing ratios are underestimated in the 1-6 km range. The seasonal change noted in the errors follows the one seen in the variance of ozone mixing ratios, with the majority of the models exhibiting less variability than the observations. The analysis of chemically inert tracers highlights the importance of lateral boundary conditions up to 250 hPa for the lower-tropospheric ozone mixing ratios (0-2 km). Finally, for the stratospheric intrusions, the models are generally able to reproduce the location and timing of most intrusions but underestimate the magnitude of the maximum mixing ratios in the 2-6 km range and overestimate ozone up to the first kilometer possibly due to marine air influences that are not accurately described by the models. The choice of meteorological driver appears to be a greater predictor of model skill in this altitude range than the choice of air quality model.

Modeling regional pollution transport events during KORUS-AQ: Progress and challenges in improving representation of land-atmosphere feedbacks

This study evaluates the impact of assimilating soil moisture data from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) on short-term regional weather and air quality modeling in East Asia during the Korea-US Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) airborne campaign. SMAP data are assimilated into the Noah land surface model using an ensemble Kalman filter approach in the Land Information System framework, which is semi-coupled with the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model with online chemistry (NUWRF-Chem). With SMAP assimilation included, water vapor and carbon monoxide (CO) transport from northern-central China transitional climate zones to South Korea is better represented in NUWRF-Chem during two studied pollution events. Influenced by different synoptic conditions and emission patterns, impact of SMAP assimilation on modeled CO in South Korea is intense (>30 ppbv) during one event and less significant (<8 ppbv) during the other. SMAP assimilation impact on air quality modeling skill is complicated by other error sources such as the chemical initial and boundary conditions (IC/LBC) and emission inputs of NUWRF-Chem. Using a satellite-observation-constrained chemical IC/LBC instead of a free-running, coarser-resolution chemical IC/LBC reduces modeled CO by up to 80 ppbv over South Korea. Consequently, CO performance is improved in the middle-upper troposphere whereas degraded in the lower troposphere. Remaining negative CO biases result largely from the emissions inputs. The advancements in land surface modeling and chemical IC/LBC presented here are expected to benefit future investigations on constraining emissions using observations, which can in turn enable more accurate assessments of SMAP assimilation and chemical IC/LBC impacts.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Overview of Model Inter-Comparison in Japan’s Study for Reference Air Quality Modeling (J-STREAM)

The inter-comparison of regional air quality models is an effective way to understand uncertainty in ambient pollutant concentrations simulated using various model configurations, as well as to find ways to improve model performance. Based on the outcomes and experiences of Japanese projects thus far, a new model inter-comparison project called Japan’s study for reference air quality modeling (J-STREAM) has begun. The objective of J-STREAM is to establish reference air quality modeling for source apportionment and effective strategy making to suppress secondary air pollutants including PM2.5 and photochemical ozone in Japan through model inter-comparison. The first phase focuses on understanding the ranges and limitations in ambient PM2.5 and ozone concentrations simulated by participants using common input datasets. The second phase focuses on issues revealed in previous studies in simulating secondary inorganic aerosols, as well as on the three-dimensional characteristics of photochemical ozone as a new target. The third phase focuses on comparing source apportionments and sensitivities under heavy air pollution episodes simulated by participating models. Detailed understanding of model performance, uncertainty, and possible improvements to urban-scale air pollution involving secondary pollutants, as well as detailed sector-wise source apportionments over megacities in Japan are expected.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated sur face ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors

Ambient air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter is associated with premature mortality. As emissions from one continent influence air quality over others, changes in emissions can also influence human health on other continents. We estimate global air pollution-related premature mortality from exposure to PM_2.5 and ozone, and the avoided deaths from 20% anthropogenic emission reductions from six source regions, North America (NAM), Europe (EUR), South Asia (SAS), East Asia (EAS), Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) and the Middle East (MDE), three global emission sectors, Power and Industry (PIN), Ground Transportation (TRN) and Residential (RES) and one global domain (GLO), using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2), and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We build on results from previous studies of the TF-HTAP by using improved atmospheric models driven by new estimates of 2010 anthropogenic emissions (excluding methane), with more source and receptor regions, new consideration of source sector impacts, and new epidemiological mortality functions. We estimate 290,000 (95% CI: 30,000, 600,000) premature O₃-related deaths and 2.8 million (0.5 million, 4.6 million) PM_2.5-related premature deaths globally for the baseline year 2010. While 20% emission reductions from one region generally lead to more avoided deaths within the source region than outside, reducing emissions from MDE and RBU can avoid more O₃-related deaths outside of these regions than within, and reducing MDE emissions also avoids more PM_2.5-related deaths outside of MDE than within. Our findings that most avoided O₃-related deaths from emission reductions in NAM and EUR occur outside of those regions contrast with those of previous studies, while estimates of PM_2.5-related deaths from NAM, EUR, SAS and EAS emission reductions agree well. In addition, EUR, MDE and RBU have more avoided O₃-related deaths from reducing foreign emissions than from domestic reductions. For six regional emission reductions, the total avoided extra-regional mortality is estimated as 6,000 (-3,400, 15,500) deaths/year and 25,100 (8,200, 35,800) deaths/year through changes in O₃ and PM_2.5, respectively. Interregional transport of air pollutants leads to more deaths through changes in PM_2.5 than in O₃, even though O₃ is transported more on interregional scales, since PM_2.5 has a stronger influence on mortality. For NAM and EUR, our estimates of avoided mortality from regional and extra-regional emission reductions are comparable to those estimated by regional models for these same experiments. In sectoral emission reductions, TRN emissions account for the greatest fraction (26-53% of global emission reduction) of O₃-related premature deaths in most regions, in agreement with previous studies, except for EAS (58%) and RBU (38%) where PIN emissions dominate. In contrast, PIN emission reductions have the greatest fraction (38-78% of global emission reduction) of PM_2.5-related deaths in most regions, except for SAS (45%) where RES emission dominates, which differs with previous studies in which RES emissions dominate global health impacts. The spread of air pollutant concentration changes across models contributes most to the overall uncertainty in estimated avoided deaths, highlighting the uncertainty in results based on a single model. Despite uncertainties, the health benefits of reduced intercontinental air pollution transport suggest that international cooperation may be desirable to mitigate pollution transported over long distances.

Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions on multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3

In the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), and as contribution to the second phase of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2) activities for Europe and North America, the impacts of a 20 % decrease of global and regional anthropogenic emissions on surface air pollutant levels in 2010 are simulated by an international community of regional-scale air quality modeling groups, using different state-of-the-art chemistry and transport models (CTMs). The emission perturbations at the global level, as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia, are first simulated by the global Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) model from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which provides boundary conditions to the various regional CTMs participating in AQMEII3. On top of the perturbed boundary conditions, the regional CTMs used the same set of perturbed emissions within the regional domain for the different perturbation scenarios that introduce a 20 % reduction of anthropogenic emissions globally as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia. Results show that the largest impacts over both domains are simulated in response to the global emission perturbation, mainly due to the impact of domestic emission reductions. The responses of NO2, SO2 and PM concentrations to a 20 % anthropogenic emission reduction are almost linear (~ 20 % decrease) within the global perturbation scenario with, however, large differences in the geographical distribution of the effect. NO2, CO and SO2 levels are strongly affected over the emission hot spots. O3 levels generally decrease in all scenarios by up to ~ 1 % over Europe, with increases over the hot spot regions, in particular in the Benelux region, by an increase up to ~ 6 % due to the reduced effect of NOx titration. O3 daily maximum of 8 h running average decreases in all scenarios over Europe, by up to ~ 1 %. Over the North American domain, the central-to-eastern part and the western coast of the US experience the largest response to emission perturbations. Similar but slightly smaller responses are found when domestic emissions are reduced. The impact of intercontinental transport is relatively small over both domains, however, still noticeable particularly close to the boundaries. The impact is noticeable up to a few percent, for the western parts of the North American domain in response to the emission reductions over East Asia. O3 daily maximum of 8 h running average decreases in all scenarios over north Europe by up to ~ 5 %. Much larger reductions are calculated over North America compared to Europe. In addition, values of the Response to Extra-Regional Emission Reductions (RERER) metric have been calculated in order to quantify the differences in the strengths of nonlocal source contributions to different species among the different models. We found large RERER values for O3 (~ 0.8) over both Europe and North America, indicating a large contribution from non-local sources, while for other pollutants including particles, low RERER values reflect a predominant control by local sources. A distinct seasonal variation in the local vs. non-local contributions has been found for both O3 and PM2.5, particularly reflecting the springtime long-range transport to both continents.

Scientific assessment of background ozone over the U.S.: Implications for air quality management

Ozone (O3) is a key air pollutant that is produced from precursor emissions and has adverse impacts on human health and ecosystems. In the U.S., the Clean Air Act (CAA) regulates O3 levels to protect public health and welfare, but unraveling the origins of surface O3 is complicated by the presence of contributions from multiple sources including background sources like stratospheric transport, wildfies, biogenic precursors, and international anthropogenic pollution, in addition to U.S. anthropogenic sources. In this report, we consider more than 100 published studies and assess current knowledge on the spatial and temporal distribution, trends, and sources of background O3 over the continental U.S., and evaluate how it inflattainment of the air quality standards. We conclude that spring and summer seasonal mean U.S. background O3 (USB O3), or O3 formed from natural sources plus anthropogenic sources in countries outside the U.S., is greatest at high elevation locations in the western U.S., with monthly mean maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) mole fractions approaching 50 parts per billion (ppb) and annual 4th highest MDA8s exceeding 60 ppb, at some locations. At lower elevation sites, e.g., along the West and East Coasts, seasonal mean MDA8 USB O3 is in the range of 20-40 ppb, with generally smaller contributions on the highest O3 days. The uncertainty in U.S. background O3 is around ±10 ppb for seasonal mean values and higher for individual days. Noncontrollable O3 sources, such as stratospheric intrusions or precursors from wildfires, can make significant contributions to O3 on some days, but it is challenging to quantify accurately these contributions. We recommend enhanced routine observations, focused fi studies, process-oriented modeling studies, and greater emphasis on the complex photochemistry in smoke plumes as key steps to reduce the uncertainty associated with background O3 in the U.S.