COVID-19 - The Availability of ICU Beds in Brazil during the Onset of Pandemic

Comparing nursing workload for critically ill adults with and without COVID-19: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Intensive care environments already required complex work, and, furthermore, the recent COVID-19 pandemic increased health care demands, disorganized work teams and limited resources. Nonetheless, the real workload of nursing workers in the care for critical patients during this period was seldom investigated.

AIM

To compare the workload of nursing workers, estimated using the Nursing Activities Score (NAS), in patients with and without COVID-19 who had been hospitalized in an adult intensive care unit (ICU).

STUDY DESIGN

This study was developed in the ICU of a public university hospital in the south of Brazil. The workload of nursing workers was estimated using the NAS, which was developed through a retrospective cohort using reports of the assistance registered in electronic records, including the first 10 days of hospitalization of all patients admitted into the ICU in 2020 and 2021, who had at least one NAS evaluation; then, the workload was compared between patients with and without COVID-19. Generalized estimating equations models were used. The project was approved by the research ethics committee of the institution where the study took place.

RESULTS

The follow-up of 3485 patients resulted in 20 506 days of observation during the first 10 days of ICU hospitalization. The mean NAS score for the entire patient/day sample was 85.6 ± 18.1%, with 87.8 ± 17.8% in the COVID-19 group and 82.6 ± 18.2% in the non-COVID-19 group (p < .001). The use of mechanical ventilation, noradrenaline, sedation and neuromuscular blocking drugs, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and haemodialysis increased the value of NAS for patients with or without COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

The workload of nursing professionals was higher for COVID-19 patients than for patients who did not present the disease in the first 10 days of ICU hospitalization.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

This study presents the impact of COVID-19 on the ICU nursing workload in Brazil. The high workload found can support management decisions regarding quantity and quality of workforce composition.

COVID-19 in Brazil: a 3-year update

Three years into the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic and the world is still struggling with the aftermath of this global health crisis. In Brazil, we are witnessing serious economic, health, social, and political problems. The rapid spread of the virus in our country was the result of a shortage of vaccines and the lack of an effective national campaign to identify and report cases. This health crisis also intensified social inequalities, hitting Indigenous peoples hard due to the lack of access to health services. In addition, rising unemployment and overcrowding of the health system made contagion possible, especially among the most vulnerable, increasing the number of serious cases of the disease. It is important to highlight that emotional problems worsened, the educational system was severely affected, and domestic violence increased during the confinement period, in addition to the fact that the pandemic exposed the great disparities of regional inequalities that exist across the country, mainly concerning health management.

Profile and Outcomes of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients during the Prevalence of the Omicron Variant According to the Brazilian Regions: A Retrospective Cohort Study from 2022

We investigated the clinical-epidemiological profile and outcomes of COVID-19 patients hospitalized in 2022, during the Omicron variant/subvariant prevalence, in different Brazilian regions to identify the most vulnerable subgroups requiring special attention. Data from COVID-19 patients were extracted from the national Information System for Epidemiological Surveillance of Influenza (SIVEP-Gripe database), and analyses stratified by region and age group were conducted. The constructed dataset encompassed clinical-epidemiological information, intensive care unit admission, invasive and non-invasive ventilation requirements, vaccination status, and evolution (cure or death). It was observed that there were significant differences in the vaccination rates between regions, in the occurrence of unfavorable outcomes, and in the pattern of comorbidities in young patients. The north region had higher rates of unvaccinated patients and a lower percentage of those vaccinated with three doses in all age groups compared to other regions. The northeast region had the highest rates of patients admitted to the ICU for all age groups, while the north and northeast were the most affected by IMV requirements and in-hospital death in all age groups. This study showed that extended vaccination coverage, especially booster doses, can protect different population segments from developing severe disease since lower vaccination coverage was observed in regions with higher fatality rates.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID-19 community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic could impact frequency and mortality of non-COVID-19 community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Changes in frequency, patient mix, treatment and organ dysfunction could cascade together to increase mortality of CAP during compared with pre-COVID-19.

METHODS

Hospitalised CAP patients at St. Paul's Hospital, Vancouver, Canada pre-COVID-19 (fiscal years 2018/2019 and 2019/2020) and during COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021 and 2021/2022) were evaluated.

RESULTS

In 5219 CAP patients, there was no significant difference prepandemic versus during pandemic in mean age, gender and Charlson Comorbidity Score. However, hospital mortality increased significantly from pre-COVID-19 versus during COVID-19 (7.5% vs 12.1% respectively, (95% CI for difference: 3.0% to 6.3%), p<0.001), a 61% relative increase, coincident with increases in ICU admission (18.3% vs 25.5%, respectively, (95% CI for difference: 5.0% to 9.5%) p<0.001, 39% relative increase) and ventilation (12.7% vs 17.5%, respectively, (95% CI for difference: 2.8% to 6.7%) p<0.001, 38% relative increase). Results remained the same after regression adjustment for age, sex and Charlson score. CAP hospital admissions decreased 27% from pre-COVID-19 (n=1349 and 1433, 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, respectively) versus the first COVID-19 pandemic year (n=1047 in 2020/2021) then rose to prepandemic number (n=1390 in 2021/2022). During prepandemic years, CAP admissions peaked in winter; during COVID-19, the CAP admissions peaked every 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This is the first study to show that the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in hospital mortality, ICU admission and invasive mechanical ventilation rates of non-COVID-19 CAP and a transient, 1-year frequency decrease. There was no winter seasonality of CAP during the COVID-19 pandemic era. These novel findings could be used to guide future pandemic planning for CAP hospital care.

Prioritization preferences for COVID-19 vaccination are consistent across five countries

Vaccination against COVID-19 is making progress globally, but vaccine doses remain a rare commodity in many parts of the world. New virus variants require vaccines to be updated, hampering the availability of effective vaccines. Policymakers have defined criteria to regulate who gets priority access to the vaccination, such as age, health complications, or those who hold system-relevant jobs. But how does the public think about vaccine allocation? To explore those preferences, we surveyed respondents in Brazil, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States from September to December of 2020 using ranking and forced-choice tasks. We find that public preferences are consistent with expert guidelines prioritizing health-care workers and people with medical preconditions. However, the public also considers those signing up early for vaccination and citizens of the country to be more deserving than later-comers and non-citizens. These results hold across measures, countries, and socio-demographic subgroups.

Hospital characteristics associated with COVID-19 mortality: data from the multicenter cohort Brazilian Registry

The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented pressure over health care systems worldwide. Hospital-level data that may influence the prognosis in COVID-19 patients still needs to be better investigated. Therefore, this study analyzed regional socioeconomic, hospital, and intensive care units (ICU) characteristics associated with in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to Brazilian institutions. This multicenter retrospective cohort study is part of the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. We enrolled patients ≥ 18 years old with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals from March to September 2020. Patients' data were obtained through hospital records. Hospitals' data were collected through forms filled in loco and through open national databases. Generalized linear mixed models with logit link function were used for pooling mortality and to assess the association between hospital characteristics and mortality estimates. We built two models, one tested general hospital characteristics while the other tested ICU characteristics. All analyses were adjusted for the proportion of high-risk patients at admission. Thirty-one hospitals were included. The mean number of beds was 320.4 ± 186.6. These hospitals had eligible 6556 COVID-19 admissions during the study period. Estimated in-hospital mortality ranged from 9.0 to 48.0%. The first model included all 31 hospitals and showed that a private source of funding (β = - 0.37; 95% CI - 0.71 to - 0.04; p = 0.029) and location in areas with a high gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (β = - 0.40; 95% CI - 0.72 to - 0.08; p = 0.014) were independently associated with a lower mortality. The second model included 23 hospitals and showed that hospitals with an ICU work shift composed of more than 50% of intensivists (β = - 0.59; 95% CI - 0.98 to - 0.20; p = 0.003) had lower mortality while hospitals with a higher proportion of less experienced medical professionals had higher mortality (β = 0.40; 95% CI 0.11-0.68; p = 0.006). The impact of those association increased according to the proportion of high-risk patients at admission. In-hospital mortality varied significantly among Brazilian hospitals. Private-funded hospitals and those located in municipalities with a high GDP had a lower mortality. When analyzing ICU-specific characteristics, hospitals with more experienced ICU teams had a reduced mortality.

Syndemic aspects between COVID-19 pandemic and social inequalities

Although the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has reached all over the world population, it has demonstrated a heterogeneous impact on different populations. The most vulnerable communities which coexist daily with the social inequalities like low access to hygiene and personal protection products, crowded residences, and higher levels of chronic diseases have a higher risk of contact and the spread of infection, beyond unfavorable clinical outcomes. The elevation of the risk of infection exposure can be related to gender due to the presence of a larger contingent of women in essential services, as well as frontline and cleaning professionals who regardless of gender have the greatest exposure to the virus. Such exposures can contribute to the development of fear of contaminating themselves or their family members associated also with the work stress, both of which are related to the emergence of mental disturbances in these populations. Furthermore, conditions of unsanitary living and low socioeconomic status, populations at war, pre-existing social barriers, and ethnicity have contributed to more impact of the pandemic both in the exposure to the virus and access to health services, COVID-19 management, and management of other pathologies. At the same time, factors such as the closing of non-essential services, the loss of jobs, and the increase in household spending aggravated the social vulnerabilities and impacted the family economy. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed still more to the impact on women's health since it propitiated a favorable environment for increasing domestic violence rates, through the segregation of women from social life, and increasing the time of the victims with their aggressors.

Investigation of possible preventable causes of COVID-19 deaths in the Kampala Metropolitan Area, Uganda, 2020-2021

BACKGROUND

Identifying preventable causes of COVID-19 deaths is key to reducing mortality. We investigated possible preventable causes of COVID-19 deaths over a six-month period in Uganda.

METHODS

A case-patient was a person testing reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-positive for SARS-CoV-2 who died in Kampala Metropolitan Area hospitals from August 2020 to February 2021. We reviewed records and interviewed health workers and case-patient caretakers.

RESULTS

We investigated 126 (65%) of 195 reported COVID-19 deaths during the investigation period; 89 (71%) were male, and the median age was 61 years. A total of 98 (78%) had underlying medical conditions. Most (118, 94%) had advanced disease at admission to the hospital where they died. A total of 44 (35%) did not receive a COVID-19 test at their first presentation to a health facility despite having consistent symptoms. A total of 95 (75%) needed intensive care unit admission, of whom 45 (47%) received it; 74 (59%) needed mechanical ventilation, of whom 47 (64%) received it.

CONCLUSION

Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who died in this investigation, early opportunities for diagnosis were frequently missed, and there was inadequate intensive care unit capacity. Emphasis is needed on COVID-19 as a differential diagnosis, early testing, and care-seeking at specialized facilities before the illness reaches a critical stage. Increased capacity for intensive care is needed.

Resilience Improves the Quality of Life and Subjective Happiness of Physiotherapists during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Resilience is an individual characteristic that protects mental health. However, its impact on the lives of Brazilian physiotherapists during COVID-19 is not known. This study aimed to analyze whether resilience modulates the perceived quality of life (QoL) and subjective happiness (SH) of physiotherapists who work with COVID-19 patients, compared with those who do not. A cross-sectional study was conducted between 22 August and 22 October 2020. Physiotherapists working in critical and non-critical hospital sectors were invited to participate in the study. The participants completed sociodemographic questionnaires and were graded on the 14-item Resilience Scale, 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36), and the Subjective Happiness Scale. In total, 519 physiotherapists were enrolled in the study. Physiotherapists with low resilience who worked with COVID-19 patients reported lower scores on the SF-36 subscales (except for social functioning) and the Subjective Happiness Scale, compared with those with high resilience who did not work with COVID-19 patients. These responses were modulated by age, sex, absence from work, receipt of personal protective equipment, host leadership, and practice and maintenance of regular physical activity. In conclusion, physiotherapists with low resilience who worked with COVID-19 patients presented lower perceptions of QoL and SH, compared with the other study participants.

COVID-19 Underreporting in Brazil among Patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome during the Pandemic: An Ecological Study

Underreporting of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is a global problem and might hamper Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemiological control. Taking this into consideration, we estimated possible SARS-CoV-2 infection underreporting in Brazil among patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). An ecological study using a descriptive analysis of the SARS report was carried out based on data supplied by the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information (SIVEP)-Flu (in Brazilian Portuguese, Sistema de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe) in the period between January 2015 and March 2021. The number of SARS cases and related deaths after infection by SARS-CoV-2 or Influenzae was described. The estimation of underreporting was evaluated considering the relative increase in the number of cases with undefined etiological agent comparing 2020 to 2015−2019; and descriptive analysis was carried out including data from January−March/2021. In our data, SARS-CoV-2 infection and the presence of SARS with undefined etiological agent were associated with the higher number of cases and deaths from SARS in 2020/2021. SARS upsurge was six times over that expected in 2020, according to SARS seasonality in previous years (2015−2019). The lowest possible underdiagnosis rate was observed in the age group < 2 y.o. and individuals over 30 y.o., with ~50%; while in the age groups 10−19 and 20−29 y.o., the rates were 200−250% and 100%, respectively. For the remaining age groups (2−5 and 5−9 y.o.) underreporting was over 550%, except for female individuals in the age group 2−5 y.o., in which a ~500% rate was found. Our study described that the SARS-CoV-2 infection underreporting rate in Brazil in SARS patients is alarming and presents different indices, mainly associated with the patients’ age groups. Our results, mainly the underreporting index according to sex and age, should be evaluated with caution.

Slums and pandemics

How do slums shape the economic and health dynamics of pandemics? A difference-in-differences analysis using millions of mobile phones in Brazil shows that residents of overcrowded slums engaged in less social distancing after the outbreak of Covid-19. We develop and calibrate a choice-theoretic equilibrium model in which individuals are heterogeneous in income and some people live in high-density slums. Slum residents account for a disproportionately high number of infections and deaths and, without slums, deaths increase in non-slum neighborhoods. Policy analysis of reallocation of medical resources, lockdowns and cash transfers produce heterogeneous effects across groups. Policy simulations indicate that: reallocating medical resources cuts deaths and raises output and the welfare of both groups; mild lockdowns favor slum individuals by mitigating the demand for hospital beds, whereas strict confinements mostly delay the evolution of the pandemic; and cash transfers benefit slum residents to the detriment of others, highlighting important distributional effects.

Human Development Index Is Associated with COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in Brazil: An Ecological Study

The Human Development Index measures a region's development and is a step for development debate beyond the traditional, economic perspective. It can also determine the success of a country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly affecting the case fatality rate among severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to associate the Human Development Index with the case fatality rate due to COVID-19 in each Brazilian state and the Federal District, taking into account comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. We also evaluated the influence of the GINI index, number of intensive care unit beds, and occupied households in subnormal clusters on the case fatality rate. We performed an ecological study including two populations: COVID-19 individuals that did not require the mechanical ventilation protocol; and COVID-19 individuals under invasive mechanical ventilation. We performed a Pearson correlation test and a univariate linear regression analysis on the relationship between Human Development Index, Human Development Index-Education Level, Human Development Index-Life Expectancy, and Human Development Index-Gross National Income per capita and COVID-19 deaths. The same analyses were performed using the other markers. We grouped the patients with COVID-19 according to comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Alpha = 0.05. We included 848,501 COVID-19 individuals, out of which 153,710 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 314,164 died, and 280,533 COVID-19 individuals without comorbidity, out of which 33,312 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 73,723 died. We observed a low negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and death and a moderate negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and deaths of individuals on invasive mechanical ventilation, with or without comorbidity. The univariate linear analysis showed the case fatality rate depends on at least 20-40% of the Human Development Index. In Brazil, regions with a low Human Development Index demonstrated a higher case fatality rate due to COVID-19, mainly in individuals who needed invasive mechanical ventilation, than regions with a higher Human Development Index. Although other indexes studied, such as intensive care unit beds and GINI, were also associated with the COVID-19 case fatality rate, they were not as relevant as the Human Development Index. Brazil is a vast territory comprising cultural, social, and economic diversity, which mirrors the diversity of the Human Development Index. Brazil is a model nation for the study of the Human Development Index's influence on aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as its impact on the case fatality rate.

Coronavirus disease-related in-hospital mortality: a cohort study in a private healthcare network in Brazil

COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality has been reported at 30.7–47.3% in Brazil, however studies assessing exclusively private hospitals are lacking. This is important because of significant differences existing between the Brazilian private and public healthcare systems. We aimed to determine the COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality and associated risk factors in a Brazilian private network from March/2020 to March/2021. Data were extracted from institutional database and analyzed using Cox regression model. Length of hospitalization and death-related factors were modeled based on available independent variables. In total, 38,937 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized of whom 3058 (7.8%) died. Admission to the intensive care unit occurred in 62.5% of cases, and 11.5% and 3.8% required mechanical ventilation (MV) and renal replacement therapy (RRT), respectively. In the adjusted model, age ≥ 61 years-old, comorbidities, and the need for MV and/or RRT were significantly associated with increased mortality (p < 0.05). Obesity and hypertension were associated with the need for MV and RRT (p < 0.05).

Organ dysfunction and death in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in pandemic waves 1 to 3 in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec, Canada: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

There have been multiple waves in the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. We sought to compare mortality and respiratory, cardiovascular and renal dysfunction between waves in 3 Canadian provinces.

METHODS

We conducted a substudy of the ARBs CORONA I study, a multicentre Canadian pragmatic observational cohort study that examined the association of pre-existing use of angiotensin receptor blockers with outcomes in adults admitted to hospital with acute COVID-19 up to April 2021 from 9 community and teaching hospitals in 3 Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec). We excluded emergency department admissions without hospital admission, readmissions and admissions for another reason. We used logistic and 0-1-inflated β regression models to compare 28-day and in-hospital mortality, and the use of invasive mechanical ventilation, vasopressors and renal replacement therapy (RRT) between the first 3 waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in these provinces.

RESULTS

A total of 520, 572 and 245 patients in waves 1, 2 and 3, respectively, were included. Patients in wave 3 were on average younger and had fewer comorbidities than those in waves 1 and 2. The unadjusted 28-day mortality rate was significantly lower in wave 3 (7.8%) than in wave 1 (18.3%) (odds ratio [OR] 0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-0.78) and wave 2 (16.3%) (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.27-0.79). After adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics, the difference in 28-day mortality remained significant (adjusted OR wave 3 v. wave 1: 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81; wave 3 v. wave 2: 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.91). In-hospital mortality findings were similar. Use of invasive mechanical ventilation or vasopressors was less common in waves 2 and 3 than in wave 1, and use of RRT was less common in wave 3 than in wave 1.

INTERPRETATION

Severity of illness decreased (lower mortality and less use of organ support) across waves among patients admitted to hospital with acute COVID-19, possibly owing to changes in patient demographic characteristics and management, such as increased use of dexamethasone. Continued application of proven therapies may further improve outcomes.

STUDY REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT04510623.

Perfil de internações e óbitos hospitalares por síndrome respiratória aguda grave causada por COVID-19 no Piauí: estudo descritivo, 2020-2021

Resumo Objetivo Descrever o perfil e a variação temporal de internações e óbitos hospitalares por síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SRAG) por COVID-19 no Piauí, Brasil, segundo local de internação. Métodos Estudo descritivo sobre dados do Sistema de Informação da Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe de 2020 a 2021. Calculou-se a letalidade entre registros hospitalares com desfecho e respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%). Resultados Foram incluídos 12.649 indivíduos majoritariamente do sexo masculino (57,1%), negros (61,2%), com uma ou duas comorbidades (30,5%). No interior, entre registros hospitalares com desfecho, a letalidade para internados (44,1%; IC95% 42,0;46,3), admitidos em unidades de terapia intensiva (82,3%; IC95% 79,7;84,8) e indivíduos submetidos a ventilação mecânica invasiva (96,6%; IC95% 94,9;97,8) foi maior do que na capital do estado. Conclusão O estudo permitiu a caracterização do perfil das internações devidas a SRAG por COVID-19 no Piauí e demonstrou elevada letalidade entre registros hospitalares com desfechos, mantendo-se alta no período estudado, sobretudo no interior.

Main aspects and prophylatic measures of COVID-19 in Brazil

From the first case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the country became the third in the world in number of cases and deaths. Despite the measures implemented by the government, the number of infected and killed by COVID-19 continues to increase and the country faces several other problems that include social and political aspects, making it difficult to contain the pandemic. The present study aimed to address the general characteristics of SARS-Cov-2, as well as to point out the main socio-epidemiological aspects in Brazil, and the treatment of COVID 19. A literature review was carried out to search for articles in PubMed, Scielo and Google databases. Scholar until October 6, 2020. Patients with COVID-19 may be asymptomatic, but among symptomatic patients the severity of the disease is related to age and pre-existing medical conditions. The lungs are the organs most affected by the virus and, for this reason, respiratory manifestations such as cough, shortness of breath, sputum production, sore throat and nasal congestion are the symptoms most associated with COVID-19 The transmission of SARS-COV-2 between humans occur mainly through respiratory droplets, but they can also occur through contact with contaminated surfaces. Vaccine tests were carried out approved by the World Health Organization (WHO). Brazil stands out in second world position, with five approved vaccines, Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca, /CoronaVac (Sinovac), Janssen /Covishiel

COVID-19 in medium-sized municipalities in the 14 health macro-regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The present study focused on the scenario of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, from March 2020 to March 2021. We evaluated the evolution of COVID-19 prevalence and death in one municipality from each of the 14 health macro-regions of MG state. Socio-demographic characteristics and variables related to the municipalities were analyzed. The raw dataset used in this study was freely sourced from the website Brasil.io. From the raw dataset, two time series were extracted: the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 and cumulative death counts, and they were compared to the state data using a nowcasting approach. In order to make time series comparisons possible, all data was normalized per 100,000 inhabitants. When analyzing in light of colored wave code interventions initiated in August 2020 in MG, for the majority of the municipalities, there was an absence of clear influence on prevalence and deaths. The national holidays in the first semester of 2020 had a small impact on the COVID-19 prevalence of the municipalities, but the holidays in the second semester of 2020 and beginning of 2021 caused important impacts on COVID-19 prevalence. The low number of ICU beds in some municipalities contributed to the higher number of deaths. The analysis showed here is expected to contribute to the improvement of decision making of the MG government, as it opened a huge possibility to have the total macro-regions and state data analyzed.

The hindrances to perform the COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Brazil is one of the epicenters of COVID-19 pandemic and faces several hindrances to make his COVID-19 vaccination plan efficient.

METHODS

The Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination plan was evaluated and the hindrances to make the COVID-19 vaccination plan efficient were described and discussed.

RESULTS

High territorial extension might contribute to a delay on the COVID-19 vaccination, due to difficulty in delivering vaccines to furthest Brazilian states and to all the interior cities. The choice among the vaccines should be done based on the type of storage and must consider the transport conditions necessary to maintain its effectiveness. The indigenous individuals were included with health-care workers as the first group to be vaccinated, inflaming the number of vaccines doses distributed in states where the indigenous population have higher prevalence. The antivaccine movement and the politicization of the vaccine are also hindrances to be overcome in Brazil. The COVID-19 incidence or mortality rate and the distribution of intensive care units (ICUs) are not a criterion to distribute the vaccines, as we did not identify a correlation between these markers and the number of vaccines. However, a strong or very strong correlation occurred between the number of COVID-19 vaccines and the number of COVID-19 cases, deaths by COVID-19, gross domestic product, as well as populational density. A total of 83,280,475 doses of COVID-19 vaccines were distributed in Brazil. In the first dose, the Coronavac (Sinovac™), AZD1222 (AstraZeneca/Oxford™), and BNT162b (Pfizer/BioNTech™) vaccines were responsible to vaccinate, respectively, 9.61%, 6.69%, and 0.35% of the Brazilian population. In the second dose, the Coronavac, AZD1222, and BNT162b vaccines were responsible to vaccinate, respectively, 7.52%, 0.53%, and <0.01% of the Brazilian population.

CONCLUSIONS

The Federal Government must evaluate the hindrances and propose solutions to maximize the immunization against COVID-19 on Brazil.

A Study on COVID-19 Incidence in Europe through Two SEIR Epidemic Models Which Consider Mixed Contagions from Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Individuals

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on the world has been partially controlled through different measures of social isolation and prophylaxis. Two new SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) models are proposed in order to describe this spread through different countries of Europe. In both models the infectivity of the asymptomatic period during the exposed stage of the disease will be taken into account. The different transmission rates of the SEIR models are calculated by considering the different locations and, more importantly, the lockdown measures implemented in each region. A new classification of these intervention measures will be set and their influence on the values of the transmission rates will be estimated through regression analysis.

The impact of super-spreader cities, highways, and intensive care availability in the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil

Although international airports served as main entry points for SARS-CoV-2, the factors driving the uneven geographic spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil remain mostly unknown. Here we show that three major factors influenced the early macro-geographical dynamics of COVID-19 in Brazil. Mathematical modeling revealed that the "super-spreading city" of São Paulo initially accounted for more than 85% of the case spread in the entire country. By adding only 16 other spreading cities, we accounted for 98-99% of the cases reported during the first 3 months of the pandemic in Brazil. Moreover, 26 federal highways accounted for about 30% of SARS-CoV-2's case spread. As cases increased in the Brazilian interior, the distribution of COVID-19 deaths began to correlate with the allocation of the country's intensive care units (ICUs), which is heavily weighted towards state capitals. Thus, severely ill patients living in the countryside had to be transported to state capitals to access ICU beds, creating a "boomerang effect" that contributed to skew the distribution of COVID-19 deaths. Therefore, if (i) a lockdown had been imposed earlier on in spreader-capitals, (ii) mandatory road traffic restrictions had been enforced, and (iii) a more equitable geographic distribution of ICU beds existed, the impact of COVID-19 in Brazil would be significantly lower.

A multipurpose machine learning approach to predict COVID-19 negative prognosis in São Paulo, Brazil

The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a challenge for clinical decision-making and the effective allocation of healthcare resources. An accurate prognostic assessment is necessary to improve survival of patients, especially in developing countries. This study proposes to predict the risk of developing critical conditions in COVID-19 patients by training multipurpose algorithms. We followed a total of 1040 patients with a positive RT-PCR diagnosis for COVID-19 from a large hospital from São Paulo, Brazil, from March to June 2020, of which 288 (28%) presented a severe prognosis, i.e. Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, use of mechanical ventilation or death. We used routinely-collected laboratory, clinical and demographic data to train five machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks, extra trees, random forests, catboost, and extreme gradient boosting). We used a random sample of 70% of patients to train the algorithms and 30% were left for performance assessment, simulating new unseen data. In order to assess if the algorithms could capture general severe prognostic patterns, each model was trained by combining two out of three outcomes to predict the other. All algorithms presented very high predictive performance (average AUROC of 0.92, sensitivity of 0.92, and specificity of 0.82). The three most important variables for the multipurpose algorithms were ratio of lymphocyte per C-reactive protein, C-reactive protein and Braden Scale. The results highlight the possibility that machine learning algorithms are able to predict unspecific negative COVID-19 outcomes from routinely-collected data.

Epidemiology, clinical characteristics and treatment of critically ill patients with COVID-19): a protocol for a living systematic review

INTRODUCTION

In December 2019, the first cases of COVID-19 associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral infection were described in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Since then, it has spread rapidly affecting 188 countries and was declared a pandemic by the WHO on 11 March 2020. Preliminary reports suggest up to 30% of patients require intensive care unit (ICU) admission and case fatality rate estimate is 2.3%-7.2%. The primary reason for ICU admission is hypoxaemic respiratory failure, while factors associated with ICU admission include increased age, presence of comorbidities and cytokine storm. Case series and retrospective trials initially assessed proposed treatments with randomised controlled trials now reporting early outcomes. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify epidemiological factors, treatments and complications that predict mortality among critically ill patients with COVID-19.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Our comprehensive search strategy was developed in consultation with a research librarian. We will search electronic databases: Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, Ovid Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Wiley Cochrane Library. The search strategy combines concepts from COVID-19, validated COVID-19 search filters and geographical locations of large outbreaks. Citation screening, selection, quality assessment and data abstraction will be performed in duplicate. Clinically homogenous epidemiological characteristics, interventions and complications will be pooled in statistical meta-analysis. Within the framework of a living systematic review, the search and data analysis will be updated every 6 months.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Our systematic review will synthesise literature on risk factors and interventions associated with mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Results will be presented at national and international conferences and submitted for peer-reviewed publication. The pooled analysis can provide guidance to inform clinical guidelines for care of critically ill patients with COVID-19. Iterative updates will be made public through open access. Research ethics approval is not required.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020176672.

COVID-19 in Brazil: 150,000 deaths and the Brazilian underreporting

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Monitoring of death indicators is a strategy recommended by the World Health Organization to assess the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The global underreporting is a challenge to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and it is associated with political, technological, and economic burden associated with different territories.

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In our data, the high number of unexpected deaths by natural causes during the COVID-19 pandemic is evident.

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A total of 118,406 unexpected deaths by natural causes was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Maybe, our data represent the Brazilian underreporting for severe patients affected by COVID-19 due to limitations to perform the SARS-CoV-2 screen by RT-PCR.

Brazil is one of the epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic and has reported 5,113,628 cases and 150,998 deaths by the disease. Comparing the deaths by natural causes expected and the excess mortality rate, there is a 22% increase in deaths mainly of male patients and individuals over 60 years old.