Ongoing increase in measles cases following importations, Japan, March 2014: times of challenge and opportunity

Measles and Rubella Elimination in the Western Pacific Region in 2013-2022: Lessons Learned from Progress and Achievements Made during Regional and Global Measles Resurgences

Measles is the most contagious communicable disease, causing an estimated 5.5 million cases and more than 30,000 deaths in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) during 2000. Rubella infection in a pregnant woman can be devastating for the foetus, resulting in congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in 90% of rubella infections in early pregnancy. It was estimated that approximately 9000 CRS cases occurred in the WPR in 2010. World Health Organization (WHO) Member States in the WPR decided in 2003 to eliminate measles and in 2014 to eliminate rubella from the region. While the WPR successfully attained historically low measles incidence in 2012, it experienced a region-wide measles resurgence in 2013-2016. During the regional resurgence, WHO and Member States accumulated greater knowledge on the epidemiology of measles and rubella in the WPR and strategies to maintain gains. The implementation of the resulting new regional strategy and plan of action from 2018 has proven that measles and rubella elimination is achievable and sustainable under the pressure of multiple importations of measles virus during the world-wide measles resurgences in 2018-2019. This article discusses this progress and achievements towards achieving the global eradication of measles and rubella.

Transmission Network of Measles During the Yamagata Outbreak in Japan, 2017

Background

A measles outbreak involving 60 cases occurred in Yamagata, Japan in 2017. Using two different mathematical models for different datasets, we aimed to estimate measles transmissibility over time and explore any heterogeneous transmission patterns.

Methods

The first model relied on the temporal distribution for date of illness onset for cases, and a generation-dependent model was applied to the data. Another model focused on the transmission network. Using the illness-onset date along with the serial interval and geographical location of exposure, we reconstructed a transmission network with 19 unknown links. We then compared the number of secondary transmissions with and without clinical symptoms or laboratory findings.

Results

Using a generation-dependent model (assuming three generations other than the index case), the reproduction number (R) over generations 0, 1, and 2 were 25.3, 1.3, and <0.1, respectively, explicitly yielding the transmissibility over each generation. The network data enabled us to demonstrate that both the mean and the variance for the number of secondary transmissions per primary case declined over time. Comparing primary cases with and without secondary transmission, high viral shedding was the only significant determinant (P < 0.01).

Conclusions

The R declined abruptly over subsequent generations. Use of network data revealed the distribution of the number of secondary transmissions per primary case and also allowed us to identify possible secondary transmission risk factors. High viral shedding from the throat mucosa was identified as a potential predictor of secondary transmission.

Nationwide Molecular Epidemiology of Measles Virus in Japan Between 2008 and 2017

Genotyping evidence that supports the interruption of endemic measles virus (MV) transmission is one of the essential criteria to be verified in achieving measles elimination. In Japan since 2014, MV genotype analyses have been performed for most of the measles cases in prefectural public health institutes nationwide. With this strong molecular epidemiological data, Japan was verified to have eliminated measles in March, 2015. However, even in the postelimination era, sporadic cases and small outbreaks of measles have been detected repeatedly in Japan. This study investigated the nationwide molecular epidemiology of MV between 2008 and 2017. The 891 strains in the total period between 2008 and 2017 belonged to seven genotypes (D5, D4, D9, H1, G3, B3, and D8) and 124 different MV sequence variants, based on the 450-nucleotide sequence region of the N gene (N450). The 311 MV strains in the postelimination era between 2015 and 2017 were classified into 1, 7, 8, and 32 different N450 sequence variants in D9, H1, B3, and D8 genotypes, respectively. Analysis of the detection period of the individual N450 sequence variants showed that the majority of MV strains were detected only for a short period. However, MV strains, MVs/Osaka.JPN/29.15/ [D8] and MVi/Hulu Langat.MYS/26.11/ [D8], which are named strains designated by World Health Organization (WHO), have been detected in many cases over 2 or 3 years between 2015 and 2017. The WHO-named strains have circulated worldwide, causing outbreaks in many countries. Epidemiological investigation revealed repeated importation of these WHO-named strains into Japan. To demonstrate the elimination status (interruption of endemic transmission) in situations with repeated importation of the same strains is challenging. Nevertheless, the detailed sequence analysis of individual MV strains and chronological analysis of these strains provided sufficient evidence to show that Japan has still maintained its measles elimination status in 2017.

Correlates of laboratory-confirmed measles in Japan, 2011-2015

BACKGROUND

With the progressive decline in the incidence of measles in Japan, its diagnosis has become challenging, with fewer physicians having experience in examining measles patients. We aimed to determine the correlates of laboratory-confirmed measles to help physicians improve their measles diagnosis.

METHODS

This study was conducted using the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID) system data during 2011-2015. Among clinically suspected measles patients reported to NESID, measles virus (MV)-positive patients were compared with MV-negative patients. The odds ratios (OR) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) were determined using logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 4168 laboratory-tested patients were notified to NESID. We analysed 618 MV-positive patients (median age, 17 years; interquartile range [IQR], 4-30 years) and 600 MV-negative (median age, 10 years; IQR, 1-29 years) patients after excluding those that met the exclusion criteria or were reported during the rubella epidemic period (the 18th epidemiological week of 2012 to the 46th week of 2013). Having an epidemiological link with a measles patient within 14 days of onset (OR, 14.9; 95% CI, 10.0-23.3), a history of recent international travel (OR, 11.7; 95% CI, 6.9-19.9), and unvaccinated/unknown vaccination status for measles-containing vaccine (MCV; OR, 3.7; 95% CI, 2.3-5.7) were significantly associated with MV-positive status. International travel (adjusted OR, 10.2; 95% CI, 5.9-17.7) and unvaccinated/unknown MCV vaccination status (adjusted OR, 5.8; 95% CI, 3.5-9.8) remained significantly associated with MV-positive status after adjusting for age, sex, and each other.

CONCLUSION

In low-incidence Japan, having an epidemiological link, international travel, and lack of MCV vaccination were correlates of laboratory-confirmed measles. The findings of this study could potentially improve the clinical diagnosis of measles, which can lead to more efficient testing and earlier laboratory confirmation.

Measles elimination and immunisation: national surveillance trends in Japan, 2008-2015

Measles elimination relies on vaccination programmes. In Japan, a major outbreak started in 2007. In response, 5-year two-dose catch-up vaccination programme was initiated in April 2008 for children 13-16-years-old. In this study, we analysed the epidemic curves, incidence rates for each age group, virus genotype, vaccination coverage and ratio of measles gelatin particle agglutination (PA) antibody using surveillance data for 2008-2015. Monthly case counts markedly decreased as vaccination coverage increased. D5, which is the endemic virus type, disappeared after 2011, with the following epidemic caused by imported viruses. Most cases were confirmed to have a no-dose or single-dose vaccination status. Although the incidence rate among all age groups ⩾5-years-old decreased during the study period, for children <5-years-old, the incidence rate remained relatively high and increased in 2014. The ratio of PA antibody (⩾1:128 titres) increased for the majority of age groups, but with a decrease for specific age groups: the 0-5 months and the 2-4, 14, 19 and most of the 26-55- and the 60-year-old groups (-1 to -9%). This seems to be the result of higher vaccination coverage, which would result in decreasing natural immunity booster along with decreasing passive immunity in infants whose mothers did not have the natural immunity booster. The 20-29- and 30-39-year-old age groups had higher number of cases, suggesting that vaccination within these age groups might be important for eliminating imported viruses.

Assessing the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016

OBJECTIVES

Despite the verification of measles elimination, Japan experienced multiple generations of measles transmission following importation events in 2016. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the transmission dynamics of measles in Japan, 2016, estimating the transmission potential in the partially vaccinated population.

METHODS

All diagnosed measles cases were notified to the government, and the present study analyzed two pieces of datasets independently, i.e., the transmission tree of the largest outbreak in Osaka (n=49) and the final size distribution of all importation events (n=23 events). Branching process model was employed to estimate the effective reproduction number R_v, and the analysis of transmission tree in Osaka enabled us to account for the timing of introducing contact tracing and case isolation.

RESULTS

Employing a negative binomial distribution for the offspring distribution, the model with time-dependent decline in R_v due to interventions appeared to best fit to the transmission tree data with R_v of 9.20 (95% CI (confidence interval): 2.08, 150.68) and the dispersion parameter 0.32 (95% CI: 0.07, 1.17) before interventions were introduced. The relative transmissibility in the presence of interventions from week 34 was estimated at 0.005. Analyzing the final size distribution, models for subcritical and supercritical processes fitted equally well to the observed data, and the estimated reproduction number from both models did not exclude the possibility that R_v>1.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results likely reflect the highly contagious nature of measles, indicating that Japan is at risk of observing multiple generations of measles transmission given imported cases. Considering that importation events may continue in the future, supplementary vaccination of adults needs to be considered.

A unique measles B3 cluster in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands linked to air travel and transit at a large international airport, February to April 2014

This report describes a joint measles outbreak investigation between public health officials in the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands following detection of a measles cluster with a unique measles virus strain. From 1 February to 30 April 2014, 33 measles cases with a unique measles virus strain of genotype B3 were detected in the UK and the Netherlands, of which nine secondary cases were epidemiologically linked to an infectious measles case travelling from the Philippines. Through a combination of epidemiological investigation and sequence analysis, we found that measles transmission occurred in flight, airport and household settings. The secondary measles cases included airport workers, passengers in transit at the same airport or travelling on the same flight as the infectious case and also household contacts. This investigation highlighted the particular importance of measles genotyping in identifying transmission networks and the need to improve vaccination, public health follow-up and management of travellers and airport staff exposed to measles.

Antibody Response to Live Attenuated Vaccines in Adults in Japan

The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy rendered with a single dose of live attenuated measles, rubella, mumps, and varicella containing vaccine.

We inoculated healthcare workers (HCWs) with a single dose of vaccine to a disease lacking in antibody titer for those not meeting the criteria of our hospital (measles: <16.0 (IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA)), rubella: ≤1:32 (hemagglutination-inhibition), mumps: <4.0 (IgG EIA), and varicella: <4.0 (IgG EIA)). At 28–60 days after vaccination, the antibody titer was tested again.

We included 48 HCWs. A total of 32, 15, 31, and 10 individuals were inoculated with a single dose of measles-containing, rubella-containing, mumps, or varicella vaccine, respectively, and showed significant antibody elevation (9.2 ± 12.3 to 27.6 ± 215.6, p<0.001; 8 ± 1.2 to 32 ± 65.5, p<0.001; 3.0 ± 1.0 to 13.1 ± 8.6, p<0.05; and 2.6 ± 1.3 to 11.8 ± 8.1, p<0.001, respectively). Major side effects were not observed.

In a limited population, a single dose of live attenuated vaccine showed elevation of antibody titer without any severe adverse reactions. However, whether the post-vaccination response rate criteria of our university was fulfilled could not be determined owing to limited sample size.

Airborne virus detection by a sensing system using a disposable integrated impaction device

There are many respiratory infections such as influenza that cause epidemics. These respiratory infection epidemics can be effectively prevented by determining the presence or absence of infections in patients using frequent tests. We think that self-diagnosis may be possible using a system that can collect and detect biological aerosol particles in the patient's breath because breath sampling is easy work requiring no examiner. In this paper, we report a sensing system for biological aerosol particles (SSBAP) with a disposable device. Using the system and the device, someone with no medical knowledge or skills can safely, easily, and rapidly detect infectious biological aerosol particles. The disposable device, which is the core of the SSBAP, can be an impactor for biological aerosol particles, a flow-cell for reagents, and an optical window for the fluorescent detection of collected particles. Furthermore, to detect the fluorescence of very small collected particles, this disposable device is covered with a light-blocking film that lets only fluorescence of particles pass through a fluorescence detector of the SSBAP. The SSBAP using the device can automatically detect biological aerosol particles by the following process: collecting biological aerosol particles from a patient's breath in a sampling bag by the impaction method, labeling the collected biological aerosol particles with fluorescent dyes by the antigen-antibody reaction, removing free fluorescent dyes, and detecting the fluorescence of the biological aerosol particles. The collection efficiency of the device for microspheres aerosolized in the sampling bag was more than 97%, and the SSBAP with the device could detect more than 8.3  ×  10(3) particles l(-1) of aerosolized influenza virus particles within 10 min.

Progress toward measles elimination—Philippines, 1998-2014

In 2005, the Regional Committee for the World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR) established a goal to eliminate measles by 2012.The recommended elimination strategies in WPR include 1) ≥95% 2-dose coverage with measles-containing vaccine (MCV) through routine immunization services and supplementary immunization activities (SIAs); 2) high-quality case-based measles surveillance; 3) laboratory surveillance with timely and accurate testing of specimens to confirm or discard suspected cases and detect measles virus genotypes; and 4) measles outbreak preparedness, rapid response, and appropriate case management. In the WPR, the Philippines set a national goal in 1998 to eliminate measles by 2008. This report describes progress toward measles elimination in the Philippines during 1998-2014 and challenges remaining to achieve the goal. WHO-United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)-estimated coverage with the routine first dose of MCV (MCV1) increased from 80% in 1998 to 90% in 2013, and coverage with the routine second dose of MCV (MCV2) increased from 10% after nationwide introduction in 2010 to 53% in 2013. After nationwide SIAs in 1998 and 2004, historic lows in the numbers and incidence of reported measles cases occurred in 2006. Despite nationwide SIAs in 2007 and 2011, the number of reported cases and incidence generally increased during 2007-2012, and large measles outbreaks occurred during 2013-2014 that affected infants, young children, older children, and young adults and that were prolonged by delayed and geographically limited outbreak response immunization activities during 2013-2014. For the goal of measles elimination in WPR to be achieved, sustained investments are required in the Philippines to strengthen health systems, implement the recommended elimination strategies, and develop additional strategies to identify and reduce measles susceptibility in specific geographic areas and older age groups.

Resurgence of measles in a country of elimination: interim assessment and current control measures in the Republic of Korea in early 2014

Since the beginning of 2014, the Republic of Korea has experienced a resurgence of measles cases. Among the 220 cases confirmed as measles during epidemiological weeks 1-20 (December 29, 2013 to May 17, 2014), 10 imported cases were identified. The predominant genotype was B3, which reflects the circulating measles virus in adjacent countries. Even with the verification of measles elimination in March 2014 by the World Health Organization, recent importation has been related to international travel. Targeted control measures have been implemented in addition to proper isolation and patient care. A vigilant surveillance system and high levels of vaccine coverage should be maintained to sustain the measles elimination status.