Myths versus facts in emergency department overcrowding and hospital access block

Translational artificial intelligence-led optimization and realization of estimated discharge with a supportive weekend interprofessional flow team (TAILORED-SWIFT)

Weekend discharges occur less frequently than discharges on weekdays, contributing to hospital congestion. Artificial intelligence algorithms have previously been derived to predict which patients are nearing discharge based upon ward round notes. In this implementation study, such an artificial intelligence algorithm was coupled with a multidisciplinary discharge facilitation team on weekend shifts. This approach was implemented in a tertiary hospital, and then compared to a historical cohort from the same time the previous year. There were 3990 patients included in the study. There was a significant increase in the proportion of inpatients who received weekend discharges in the intervention group compared to the control group (median 18%, IQR 18-20%, vs median 14%, IQR 12% to 17%, P = 0.031). There was a corresponding higher absolute number of weekend discharges during the intervention period compared to the control period (P = 0.025). The studied intervention was associated with an increase in weekend discharges and economic analyses support this approach as being cost-effective. Further studies are required to examine the generalizability of this approach to other centers.

Evaluation of different models of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a mixed-methods realist evaluation

Background

Emergency healthcare services are under intense pressure to meet increasing patient demands. Many patients presenting to emergency departments could be managed by general practitioners in general practitioner-emergency department service models.

Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness, safety, patient experience and system implications of the different general practitioner-emergency department models.

Design

Mixed-methods realist evaluation.

Methods

Phase 1 (2017-8), to understand current practice: rapid realist literature review, national survey and follow-up key informant interviews, national stakeholder event and safety data analysis. Phase 2 (2018-21), to collect and analyse qualitative (observations, interviews) and quantitative data (time series analysis); cost-consequences analysis of routine data; and case site data for 'marker condition' analysis from a purposive sample of 13 case sites in England and Wales. Phase 3 (2021-2), to conduct mixed-methods analysis for programme theory and toolkit development.

Results

General practitioners commonly work in emergency departments, but delivery models vary widely in terms of the scope of the general practitioner role and the scale of the general practitioner service. We developed a taxonomy to describe general practitioner-emergency department service models (Integrated with the emergency department service, Parallel within the emergency department, Outside the emergency department on the hospital site) and present a programme theory as principal output of the study to describe how these service models were observed to operate. Routine data were of variable quality, limiting our analysis. Time series analysis demonstrated trends across intervention sites for: increased time spent in the emergency department; increased emergency department attendances and reattendances; and mixed results for hospital admissions. Evidence on patient experience was limited but broadly supportive; we identified department-level processes to optimise the safety of general practitioner-emergency department models.

Limitations

The quality, heterogeneity and extent of routine emergency department data collection during the study period limited the conclusions. Recruitment was limited by criteria for case sites (time series requirements) and individual patients (with 'marker conditions'). Pandemic and other pressures limited data collection for marker condition analysis. Data collected and analysed were pre pandemic; new approaches such as 'telephone first' and their relevance to our findings remains unexplored.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that general practitioner-emergency department service models do not meet the aim of reducing the overall emergency department waiting times and improving patient flow with limited evidence of cost savings. Qualitative data indicated that general practitioners were often valued as members of the wider emergency department team. We have developed a toolkit, based on our findings, to provide guidance for implementing and delivering general practitioner-emergency department services.

Future work

The emergency care data set has since been introduced across England to help standardise data collection to facilitate further research. We would advocate the systematic capture of patient experience measures and patient-reported outcome measures as part of routine care. More could be done to support the development of the general practitioner in emergency department role, including a core set of competencies and governance structure, to reflect the different general practitioner-emergency department models and to evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness to guide future policy.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017069741.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/145/04) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 10. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Variations in the intended utilization of emergency care in case of gastrointestinal diseases

Frequent utilization of emergency care and overcrowded emergency departments (EDs) are highly relevant topics due to their harmful consequences for patients and staff. The present study examines variations of intended health care use in urgent and non-urgent cases among the general population. In a cross-sectional telephone survey, a sample of N = 1,204 adults residing in Hamburg, Germany, was randomly drawn. At the beginning of the survey, one of 24 different vignettes (case stories) describing symptoms of inflammatory gastrointestinal diseases were presented to the participants. The vignettes varied in sex (male/female), age (15, 49, 72 years), daytime (Tuesday morning, Tuesday evening), and urgency (low, high). Participants were asked in an open-ended question about their primal intended utilization if they or their children would be affected by such symptoms. Overall, about 14 % chose emergency facilities (ED, ambulance, emergency practice) despite presentation of non-urgent conditions (n = 602). Intended emergency care use varied considerably even if the degree of urgency was comparable. Adolescence, male sex, and symptoms occurring in the evening were associated with increased ED and ambulance use. Inappropriate utilization of ED and ambulance (analyses regarding utilization due to non-urgent problems) was more often observed among male respondents and those with a migration background (1st generation). Information campaigns focused on emergency care use and reorganisation of emergency care wards are possible interventions.

Exploring patient safety risk in an emergency ward for substance use through a mixed-method analysis

BACKGROUND

There is limited knowledge of how psychiatric patient safety measures can detect and understand risk as an emergent property within a healthcare system. Overcrowding poses a risk for patient safety in psychiatric emergency wards and is associated with increased mortality and violence. This paper aims to explore patterns of risk emergence in a psychiatric ward and provide insights into the dynamics of workload pressure.

METHOD

A case study was conducted in a psychiatric emergency ward for patients with substance use disorders. The study employed a four-phased mixed-methods design. Phase one used clinical experts to identify patient safety pressure issues. Phase two used data on patient visits extracted from medical records between 2010 and 2020. In phase three, a quantitative analysis of patient visits and diagnosis was made. Phase four used a focus group of clinical experts for a semi-structured interview, analysing the result from phase three.

RESULT

Trend analysis demonstrated a steady growth of patient visits to the emergency ward over the studied ten-year period. The findings showed a decrease in patients being diagnosed with delirium when visiting the emergency ward and an increase in percentage of patients receiving a psychosis diagnosis. The focus group expressed concerns about delayed treatments, increased violence and underestimating patients' needs.

CONCLUSION

This study indicated that increased workload pressure can be predicted at a system level by analysing patient visits and diagnostics trends over time. The study advocates for ongoing awareness of patient safety risks by monitoring factors identified by clinical front-end workers as potential sources of risk. Healthcare management could employ supportive tools to detect and address emerging risks, including expected workload, overcrowding, staffing issues or bed shortages.

Homelessness and Emergency Department Use: Wait Time Disparities Across Triage Acuity Levels

Introduction Certain patient groups perceive specific barriers to accessing primary care, resulting in increased emergency department (ED) use for non-emergency conditions. There is evidence coming from other countries that homeless people are treated differently in accessing emergency services. Examination of ED wait time by demographic characteristics provides pertinent information to identify subgroups that are more subject to the consequences or causes of access block and delayed treatment.  Methods We analyzed five years of Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) visit records of the largest tertiary care center in Atlantic Canada. The wait time from triage to seeing a physician was the outcome, housing status was the main exposure, and age and gender were the predictors. Quantile regressions were carried out to identify the influence of homeless visits in meeting the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians (CAEP) wait time benchmarks for each Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS) level. The classification and regression tree method was used to quantify and classify the demographic subgroups contributing to wait time disparities across CTAS levels. Results Homeless visit median wait times that exceeded the three-hour CAEP benchmark were significantly longer for urgent (by 40 minutes, CI: 25-55), semi-urgent (by 31 minutes, CI: 17-45), and non-urgent (by 57 minutes, CI: 25-89) than acuity level-matched domiciled visit wait times. At the 50th percentile, one-hour benchmark homeless triaged as semi-urgent waited (median=20 minutes, CI: 12-28) longer, and no other triage-level differences were found at this benchmark. Homeless emergent-level visits that exceeded the three-hour benchmark were 28 minutes, on average, shorter than domiciled patients of the same acuity level. Homeless females above 40 stayed the longest for non-urgent care (mean=173 minutes), 82 minutes longer (p=0.0001) than age-gender-acuity level-matched domiciled patients. Homelessness was the most prominent ED wait time classifier for non-urgent, ED visits. Overall, homeless patients triaged as CTAS-5 waited 30 minutes longer (p=0.0001) than domiciled patients triaged as CTAS-5. Homeless male 16-20-year-olds waited the shortest time of 72 minutes.  Conclusion Homelessness-related wait time disparities exist in the low acuity non-urgent-level ED visits more than in the other levels, supporting the theory that lack of primary care access is a driver of ED use in this group. Our acuity level analysis supports that homeless people of a certain age (older) and gender groups (female) wait longer than their age-gender-matched domiciled patients to be seen by a physician in low acuity level presentations. Given the pattern of the homeless being seen earlier or statistically similar in emergent-level visits compared to matched domiciled patients and that 16-20-year-old homeless males were seen on average within 72 minutes (the shortest mean wait time reported for the triage level CTAS-5), we decline the notion of discrimination at the study site ED. If homeless patients' non-urgent needs were met elsewhere, pressure on the ED to meet benchmarks might be reduced.

Determination of emergency nurse practitioner and plastic surgery trainee disposition decision agreement for plastic surgery emergency department presentations: A prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To examine if there was a high degree of agreement for disposition decisions of emergency nurse practitioners (ENP) compared to plastic surgery trainees (PST) for plastic surgery presentations.

METHODS

A prospective study of disposition decision agreement from February 2020 to January 2021 for patients who required plastic surgery consultation and managed exclusively by an ENP. Absolute percentages were used to determine the exact disposition decision accuracy of ENP and the PST, while Cohen's kappa compared disposition decision agreement. Sub-analyses of age, gender, ENP experience and presenting condition agreement were also completed. To mitigate confounding factors, operative management (OM) and non-OM groups were analysed.

RESULTS

The study recruited 342 patients who presented mostly with finger or hand-related conditions (82%, n = 279) and managed by an ENP with less than 10 years of experience (65%, n = 224). Disposition decisions by ENP compared to PST were the same in 80% (n = 274) of cases. Disposition agreement for all patients was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.78). For the OM and non-OM groups, disposition decisions were the same in 94% (n = 320), with a Cohen's kappa 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.91). Seven patients (2%) were discharged to GP care by the ENP when determined to need further plastic surgery involvement by the PST.

CONCLUSIONS

Disposition decisions by ENP and PST were the same in most cases and had a high overall level of agreement. This may lead to greater autonomy of ENP care and reduced ED length of stay and occupancy.

Measuring emergency physician productivity and work patterns

I propose a methodology to compare individual emergency physician (EP) work patterns. This is intended to generate discussion within the specialty. A work pattern graph shows individual EP productivity and, assuming the EPs case selection is similar, can be used to compare group activity. Using a simple mathematical model, an averaged calculation can be made of the number of patients needed to be seen by each treating clinician during a standard shift.

Calling an ambulance for non-emergency medical situations: Results of a cross-sectional online survey from an Australian nationally representative sample

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the Australian general public's perception of appropriate medical scenarios that warrants a call to an emergency ambulance.

METHODS

An online survey asked participants to identify the likely medical treatment pathway they would take for 17 hypothetical medical scenarios. The number and type of non-emergency scenarios (n = 8) participants incorrectly suggested were appropriate to place a call for an emergency ambulance were calculated. Participants included Australian residents (aged >18 years) who had never worked as an Australian registered medical doctor, nurse or paramedic.

RESULTS

From a sample of 5264 participants, 40% suggested calling an emergency ambulance for a woman in routine labour was appropriate. Other medical scenarios which were most suggested by participants to warrant an emergency ambulance call was 'Lego in ear canal' (11%), 'Older person bruising' (8%) and 'Flu' (7%). Women, people aged 56+ years, those without a university qualification, with lower household income and with lower emotional wellbeing were more likely to suggest calling an emergency ambulance was appropriate for non-emergency scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

Although emergency healthcare system (EHS) capacity not increasing at the same rate as demand is the biggest contributor to EHS burden, non-urgent medical situations for which other low-acuity healthcare pathways may be appropriate does play a small role in adding to the overburdening of the EHS. This present study outlines a series of complaints and demographic characteristics that would benefit from targeted educational interventions that may aid in alleviating ambulance service attendances to low-acuity callouts.

Prospective External Validation of a Commercial Model Predicting the Likelihood of Inpatient Admission From the Emergency Department

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Early notification of admissions from the emergency department (ED) may allow hospitals to plan for inpatient bed demand. This study aimed to assess Epic's ED Likelihood to Occupy an Inpatient Bed predictive model and its application in improving hospital bed planning workflows.

METHODS

All ED adult (18 years and older) visits from September 2021 to August 2022 at a large regional health care system were included. The primary outcome was inpatient admission. The predictive model is a random forest algorithm that uses demographic and clinical features. The model was implemented prospectively, with scores generated every 15 minutes. The area under the receiver operator curves (AUROC) and precision-recall curves (AUPRC) were calculated using the maximum score prior to the outcome and for each prediction independently. Test characteristics and lead time were calculated over a range of model score thresholds.

RESULTS

Over 11 months, 329,194 encounters were evaluated, with an incidence of inpatient admission of 25.4%. The encounter-level AUROC was 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.848 to 0.851), and the AUPRC was 0.643 (95% CI, 0.640 to 0.647). With a prediction horizon of 6 hours, the AUROC was 0.758 (95% CI, 0.758 to 0.759,) and the AUPRC was 0.470 (95% CI, 0.469 to 0.471). At a predictive model threshold of 40, the sensitivity was 0.49, the positive predictive value was 0.65, and the median lead-time warning was 127 minutes before the inpatient bed request.

CONCLUSION

The Epic ED Likelihood to Occupy an Inpatient Bed model may improve hospital bed planning workflows. Further study is needed to determine its operational effect.

Repeated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in an overcrowded Irish emergency department elucidated by whole-genome sequencing

AIM

To provide a detailed genomic-epidemiological description of a complex multi-ward SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, which originated in the crowded emergency department (ED) in our hospital during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and was elucidated promptly by local whole-genome sequencing (WGS).

METHODS

SARS-CoV-2 was detected by reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction on viral RNA extracted from nasopharyngeal swabs. WGS was performed using an Oxford MinION Mk1C instrument following the ARTIC v3 sequencing protocol. High-quality consensus genomes were assembled with the artic-ncov2019 bioinformatics pipeline and viral phylogenetic trees were built, inferred by maximum-likelihood. Clusters were defined using a threshold of 0-1 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between epidemiologically linked sequences.

RESULTS

In April 2021, outbreaks of COVID-19 were declared on two wards at University Hospital Limerick after 4 healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 infections were detected by post-admission surveillance testing. Contact tracing identified 12 further connected cases; all with direct or indirect links to the ED 'COVID Zone'. All sequences were assigned to the Pangolin B.1.1.7 lineage by WGS, and SNP-level analysis revealed two distinct but simultaneous clusters of infections. Repeated transmission in the ED was demonstrated, involving patients accommodated on trolleys in crowded areas, resulting in multiple generations of infections across three inpatient hospital wards and subsequently to the local community. These findings informed mitigation efforts to prevent cross-transmission in the ED.

CONCLUSION

Cross-transmission of SARS-CoV-2 occurred repeatedly in an overcrowded emergency department. Viral WGS elucidated complex viral transmission networks in our hospital and informed infection, prevention and control practice.

Operations management solutions to improve ED patient flows: evidence from the Italian NHS

Background

Overcrowding occurs when the identified need for emergency services outweighs the available resources in the emergency department (ED). Literature shows that ED overcrowding impacts the overall quality of the entire hospital production system, as confirmed by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to identify the most relevant variables that cause ED overcrowding using the input-process-output model with the aim of providing managers and policy makers with useful hints for how to effectively redesign ED operations.

Methods

A mixed-method approach is used, blending qualitative inquiry with quantitative investigation in order to: i) identifying and operationalizing the main components of the model that can be addressed by hospital operation management teams and ii) testing and measuring how these components can influence ED LOS.

Results

With a dashboard of indicators developed following the input-process-output model, the analysis identifies the most significant variables that have an impact on ED overcrowding: the type (age and complexity) and volume of patients (input), the actual ED structural capacity (in terms of both people and technology) and the ED physician-to-nurse ratio (process), and the hospital discharging process (output).

Conclusions

The present paper represents an original contribution regarding two different aspects. First, this study combines different research methodologies with the aim of capturing relevant information that by relying on just one research method, may otherwise be missed. Second, this study adopts a hospitalwide approach, adding to our understanding of ED overcrowding, which has thus far focused mainly on single aspects of ED operations.

Axilla nerve block in the emergency department

The axilla nerve block is versatile and covers injuries from the elbow to the hand, such as wrist fracture reductions, and may be an option to improve patient care, reduce both length of stay and resource allocation.

A scoping review on the challenges, improvement programs, and relevant output metrics for neurotrauma services in major trauma centers

Background:

For a neurotrauma unit to be defined as a structured neurotrauma service (NS) the following criteria must be satisfied: A dedicated neurointensive care unit, endovascular neuroradiology, in-hospital neurorehabilitation unit and helicopter platform within the context of a Level I trauma center. Designing an effective NS can be challenging, particularly when considering the different priorities and resources of countries across the globe. In addition the impact on clinical outcomes is not clearly established.

Methods:

A scoping review of the literature spanning from 2000 to 2020 meant to identify protocols, guidelines, and best practices for the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in NS was conducted on the US National Library of Medicine and National Institute of Health databases.

Results:

Limited evidence is available regarding quantitative and qualitative metrics to assess the impact of NSs and specialist follow-up clinics on patients’ outcome. Of note, the available literature used to lack detailed reports for: (a) Geographical clusters, such as low-to-middle income countries (LMIC); (b) clinical subgroups, such as mild TBI; and (c) long-term management, such as rehabilitation services. Only in the last few years more attention has been paid to those research topics.

Conclusion:

NSs can positively impact the management of the broad spectrum of TBI in different clinical settings; however more research on patients’ outcomes and quality of life metrics is needed to establish their efficacy. The collaboration of global clinicians and the development of international guidelines applicable also to LMIC are warranted.

Emergency Department Overcrowding: Understanding the Factors to Find Corresponding Solutions

It is certain and established that overcrowding represents one of the main problems that has been affecting global health and the functioning of the healthcare system in the last decades, and this is especially true for the emergency department (ED). Since 1980, overcrowding has been identified as one of the main factors limiting correct, timely, and efficient hospital care. The more recent COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the accentuation of this phenomenon, which was already well known and of international interest. Considering what would appear to be a trivial definition of overcrowding, it may seem simple for the reader to hypothesize solutions for what seems to be one of the most avoidable problems affecting the hospital system. However, proposing solutions to overcrowding, as well as their implementation, cannot be separated from a correct and precise definition of the issue, which must consider the main causes and aggravating factors. In light of the need of finding solutions that can put an end to hospital overcrowding, this review aims, through a review of the literature, to summarize the triggering factors, as well as the possible solutions that can be proposed.

Exploration of clinicians’ decision-making regarding transfer of patient care from the emergency department to a medical assessment unit: A qualitative study

Background

Hospitals face immense pressures in balancing patient throughput. Medical assessment units have emerged as a commonplace response to improve the flow of medical patients presenting to the emergency department requiring hospital admission and to ease overcrowding in the emergency department. The aim of this study was to understand factors influencing the decision-making behaviour of key stakeholders involved in the transfer of care of medical patients from one service to the other in a large, tertiary teaching hospital in Queensland, Australia.

Methods

We used a qualitative approach drawing on data from focus groups with key informant health and professional staff involved in the transfer of care. A theoretically-informed, semi-structured focus group guide was used to facilitate discussion and explore factors impacting on decisions made to transfer care of patients from the emergency department to the medical assessment unit. Thematic analysis was undertaken to look for patterns in the data.

Results

Two focus groups were conducted with a total of 15 participants. Four main themes were identified: (1) we have a process—we just don’t use it; (2) I can do it, but can they; (3) if only we could skype them; and (4) why can’t they just go up. Patient flow relies on efficiency in two processes—the transfer of care and the physical re-location of the patient from one service to the other. The findings suggest that factors other than clinical reasoning are at play in influencing decision-making behaviour.

Conclusions

Acknowledgement of the interaction within and between professional and health staff (human factors) with the organisational imperatives, policies, and process (system factors) may be critical to improve efficiencies in the service and minimise the introduction of workarounds that might compromise patient safety.

Association between emergency department length of stay and patient outcomes: A systematic review

In this review, we investigate associations between time spent in the emergency department (ED) and patient reported outcomes. ED staff provide initial assessment, treatment and referral to patients presenting with an acute status to the hospital 24 h a day. ED length of stay, including ED boarding, and treatment received in the ED may affect patient outcomes. In this review we considered published studies that explored the association of ED length of stay of individuals of any age with their subsequent outcomes, including mortality and inpatient length of stay (IPLOS). Joanna Briggs Institute methods for systematic reviews of association were followed. Search strategies were developed to identify studies published in English since 2000 for inclusion. Two reviewers assessed the studies for inclusion and methodological quality and extracted data independently. In total, 34 studies were included in the review, including one case-control, one analytical cross-sectional, and 32 retrospective cohort studies, with a total sample size of 2,308,840 patients. Overall, there were variable associations of time spent in the ED and mortality, IPLOS, time-to-treatment and adverse events. However, findings indicated that older people are at risk for longer ED stays. They may also experience higher mortality. Specific focus should be placed upon elderly people in the ED, to reduce their exposure to the ED environment where possible and to implement focused initiatives that address their specific and complex treatment needs. We conclude that the diversity of individual settings and health systems will require locally defined and relevant solutions to locally identified issues.

Effects of staff grade, overcrowding and presentations on emergency department performance: A regression model

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of staffing levels by experience of medical officers and overcrowding on ED key performance indicators (KPIs).

METHODS

Presentations to Nepean ED from 6 May to 3 November 2019 were examined. Staff were designated either Fellows of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (FACEMs), non-FACEM senior decision-makers (SDMs), non-senior decision-makers greater than 2 years postgraduate (non-SDMs) and junior medical officers up to 2 years postgraduate (JMOs). The number of admitted patients boarded in the ED waiting for a ward bed at 8 am was used as a marker for overcrowding. Multivariable regression analysis was performed using staffing levels, number of admissions at 8 am and total presentations as the independent variables and various ED KPIs as the dependent variables.

RESULTS

FACEM and SDM had a significant effect on most ED KPIs, with the effect of FACEM consistently larger than the effect of SDM. There was minimal effect on performance by non-SDM and JMO staffing. There was significant effect of overcrowding as measured by the number of admitted patients in ED at 8 am on most ED KPIs. Almost no variables had an effect on Emergency Treatment Performance (4-h target) for admitted patients, suggesting poor performance was caused by factors outside of the ED.

CONCLUSION

Increasing numbers of FACEM and non-FACEM SDM, but not junior staff, and a reduction in overcrowding as measured by the number of admitted patients boarded in the ED at 8 am, were associated with improvements in the ED performance.

Predictors of Emergency Room Access and Not Urgent Emergency Room Access by the Frail Older Adults

Background: Emergency rooms (ERs) overcrowded by older adults have been the focus of public health policies during the recent COVID-19 outbreak too. This phenomenon needed a change in the nursing care of older frail people. Health policies have tried to mitigate the frequent use of ER by implementing community care to meet the care demands of older adults. The present study aimed to investigate the predictors of emergency room access (ERA) and not-urgent emergency room access (NUERA) of community-dwelling frail older adults in order to provide an indication for out-of-hospital care services.

Method: Secondary analysis of an observational longitudinal cohort study was carried out. The cohort consisted of 1,246 community-dwelling frail older adults (over 65 years) in the Latium region in Italy. The ER admission rate was assessed over 3 years from the administration of the functional geriatric evaluation (FGE) questionnaire. The ordinal regression model was used to identify the predictors of ERA and NUERA. Moreover, the ERA and NUERA rate per 100 observations/year was analyzed.

Results: The mean age was 73.6 (SD ± 7.1) years, and 53.4% were women. NUERAs were the 39.2% of the ERAs; robust and pre-frail individuals (79.3% of the sample) generated more than two-third of ERAs (68.17%), even if frails and very frails showed the higher ER rates per observation/year. The ordinal logistic regression model highlighted a predictive role on ERAs of comorbidity (OR = 1.13, p < 0.001) and frailty level (OR = 1.29; p < 0.001). Concerning NUERAs, social network (OR 0.54, P = 0.015) and a medium score of pulmo-cardio-vascular function (OR 1.50, P = 0.006) were the predictors.

Conclusion: Comorbidity, lack of social support, and functional limitations increase both ERA and NUERA rates generated by the older adult population. Overall, bio-psycho-social frailty represents an indicator of the frequency of ERAs. However, to reduce the number of ERAs, intervention should focus mainly on the robust and pre-frail needs for prevention and care.

Point-of-care ultrasound-guided regional anaesthesia in older ED patients with hip fractures: a study to test the feasibility of a training programme and time needed to complete nerve blocks by ED physicians after training

OBJECTIVES

Point-of-care ultrasound-guided regional anaesthesia (POCUS-GRA) provides safe, rapid analgesia for older people with hip fractures but is rarely performed in the emergency department (ED). Self-perceived inadequate training and time to perform POCUS-GRA are the two most important barriers. Our objective is to assess the feasibility of a proposed multicentre, stepped-wedge cluster randomised clinical trial (RCT) to assess the impact of a knowledge-to-practice (KTP) intervention on delirium.

DESIGN

Open-label feasibility study.

SETTING

An academic tertiary care Canadian ED (annual visits 60 000).

PARTICIPANTS

Emergency physicians working at least one ED shift per week, excluding those already performing POCUS-GRA more than four times per year.

INTERVENTION

A KTP intervention, including 2-hour structured training sessions with procedure bundle and email reminders.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary feasibility outcome is the proportion of eligible physicians that completed training and subsequently performed POCUS-GRA. Secondary outcome is the time needed to complete POCUS-GRA. We also test the feasibility of the enrolment, consent and randomisation processes for the future stepped-wedge cluster RCT (NCT02892968).

RESULTS

Of 36 emergency physicians, 4 (12%) were excluded or declined participation. All remaining 32 emergency physicians completed training and 31 subsequently treated at least one eligible patient. Collectively, 27/31 (87.1%) performed 102 POCUS-GRA blocks (range 1-20 blocks per physician). The median (IQR) time to perform blocks was 15 (10-20) min, and reduction in pain was 6/10 (3-7) following POCUS-GRA. There were no reported complications.

CONCLUSION

Our KTP intervention, consent process and randomisation were feasible. The time to perform POCUS-GRA rarely exceeded 30 min, Our findings reinforce the existing data on the safety and effectiveness of POCUS-GRA, mitigate perceived barriers to more widespread adoption and demonstrate the feasibility of trialling this intervention for the proposed stepped-wedge cluster RCT.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinicaltrials.gov #02892968.

Review article: Has the implementation of time-based targets for emergency department length of stay influenced the quality of care for patients? A systematic review of quantitative literature

Time-based targets (TBTs) for ED stays were introduced to improve quality of care but criticised as having harmful unintended consequences. The aim of the review was to determine whether implementation of TBTs influenced quality of care. Structured searches in medical databases were undertaken (2000-2019). Studies describing a state, regional or national TBTs that reported processes or outcomes of care related to the target were included. Harvest plots were used to summarise the evidence. Thirty-three studies (n = 34 million) were included. In some settings, reductions in mortality were seen in ED, in hospital and at 30 days, while in other settings mortality was unchanged. Mortality reductions were seen in the face of increasing age and acuity of presentations, when short-stay admissions were excluded, and when pre-target temporal trends were accounted for. ED crowding, time to assessment and admission times reduced. Fewer patients left prior to completing their care and fewer patients re-presented to EDs. Short-stay admissions and re-admissions to wards within 30 days increased. There was conflicting evidence regarding hospital occupancy and ward medical emergency calls, while times to treatment for individual conditions did not change. The evidence for associations was mostly low certainty and confidence in the findings is accordingly low. Quality of care generally improved after targets were introduced and when compliance with targets was high. This depended on how targets were implemented at individual sites or within jurisdictions, with important implications for policy makers, health managers and clinicians.

Effectiveness of clinical criteria in directing patient flow from the emergency department to a medical assessment unit in Queensland, Australia: a retrospective chart review of hospital administrative data

Background

Medical Assessment Units (MAUs) have become a popular model of acute medical care to improve patient flow through timely clinical assessment and patient management. The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a consensus-derived set of clinical criteria for patient streaming from the Emergency Department (ED) to a 15-bed MAU within the highly capacity-constrained environment of a large quaternary hospital in Queensland, Australia.

Methods

Clinically coded data routinely submitted for inter-hospital benchmarking purposes was used to identify the cohort of medical admission patients presenting to the ED in February 2016 (summer) and June 2016 (winter). A retrospective review of patient medical records for this cohort was then conducted to extract MAU admission data, de-identified patient demographic data, and clinical criteria. The primary outcome was the proportion of admissions that adhered to the MAU admission criteria.

Results

Of the total of 540 included patients, 386 (71 %) patients were deemed to meet the MAU eligibility admission criteria. Among patients with MAU indications, 66 % were correctly transferred (95 % CI: 61 to 71) to the MAU; this estimated sensitivity was statistically significant when compared with random allocation (p-value < 0.001). Transfer outcomes for patients with contraindications were subject to higher uncertainty, with a high proportion of these patients incorrectly transferred to the MAU (73 % transferred; 95 % CI: 50 to 89 %; p-value = 0.052).

Conclusions

Based on clinical criteria, approximately two-thirds of patients were appropriately transferred to the MAU; however, a larger proportion of patients were inappropriately transferred to the MAU. While clinical criteria and judgement are generally established as the process in making decisions to transfer patients to a limited-capacity MAU, our findings suggest that other contextual factors such as bed availability, time of day, and staffing mix, including discipline profile of decision-making staff during ordinary hours and after hours, may influence decisions in directing patient flow. Further research is needed to better understand the interplay of other determinants of clinician decision making behaviour to inform strategies for improving more efficient use of MAUs, and the impact this has on clinical outcomes, length of stay, and patient flow measures in MAUs.

Review article: Have emergency department time-based targets influenced patient care? A systematic review of qualitative literature

Time-based targets for ED length of stay were introduced in England in 2000, followed by the rest of the UK, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, and Australia after ED crowding was associated with poor quality of care and increased mortality. This systematic review evaluates qualitative literature to see if ED time-based targets have influenced patient care quality. We included 13 studies from four countries, incorporating 617 interviews. We conclude that time-based targets have impacted on the quality of emergency patient care, both positively and negatively. Successful implementation depends on whole hospital resourcing and engagement with targets.

Emergency nurses' perceptions of their role in responding to escalations of care for clinical deterioration

BACKGROUND

Clinical leadership is fundamental to patient safety. The Emergency Department (ED) nurse-in-charge is a key leadership role; however, few studies have explored the management of clinical deterioration from the ED nurse-in-charge perspective. The aim of this study was to explore ED nurses-in-charge' perceptions of their role in responding to episodes of escalation of care for clinical deterioration of ED patients.

METHODS

A prospective exploratory descriptive design was used to address the study aims. The study was conducted in an urban ED in Melbourne, Australia. Senior emergency nurses who fulfilled the role of being in charge of the ED were invited to participate. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted between December 2015 and March 2016. Interview transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Two major themes, each with two subthemes were identified. The first major theme of Clinical Risk Management comprised sub-themes of Clinical Skills and Confidence. The second major theme of Resource Management comprised sub-themes of Human Resource Management and Logistical Resource Management.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong collaboration, logistical and clinical risk management roles were perceived as fundamental to the nurse-in-charge's capacity to respond to escalations of care for clinical deterioration within in a complex team environment such as the ED.

Prevalence of crowding, boarding and staffing levels in Swedish emergency departments - a National Cross Sectional Study

Background

Emergency Department (ED) crowding occurs when demand for care exceeds the available resources. Crowding has been associated with decreased quality of care and increased mortality, but the prevalence on a national level is unknown in most countries.

Method

We performed a national, cross-sectional study on staffing levels, staff workload, occupancy rate and patients waiting for an in-hospital bed (boarding) at five time points during 24 h in Swedish EDs.

Results

Complete data were collected from 37 (51% of all) EDs in Sweden. High occupancy rate indicated crowding at 12 hospitals (37.5%) at 31 out of 170 (18.2%) time points. Mean workload (measured on a scale from 1, no workload to 6, very high workload) was moderate at 2.65 (±1.25). Boarding was more prevalent in academic EDs than rural EDs (median 3 vs 0). There were an average of 2.6, 4.6 and 3.2 patients per registered nurse, enrolled nurse and physician, respectively.

Conclusion

ED crowding based on occupancy rate was prevalent on a national level in Sweden and comparable with international data. Staff workload, boarding and patient to staff ratios were generally lower than previously described.

Waiting times in emergency departments: a resource allocation or an efficiency issue?

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the flow of patients to the Emergency Departments (ED) of Western countries has steadily increased, thus generating overcrowding and extended waiting times. Scholars have identified four main causes for this phenomenon, related to: continuity of primary care services; availability of specific clinical pathways for chronic patients; ED's personnel endowment; organization of the ED. This study aims at providing a logical diagnostic framework to support managers in investigating specific solutions to be applied to their EDs to cope with high ED waiting times. The framework is based on the ED waiting times and ED admission rate matrix. It was applied to the Tuscan EDs as illustrative example.

METHODS

To provide the factors to be analyzed once the EDs are positioned into the matrix, a list of issues has been identified. The matrix was applied to Tuscan EDs. Data were collected from the Tuscan performance evaluation system, integrated with specific data on Tuscan EDs' personnel. The Tuscan EDs matrix, the descriptive statistics for each quadrant and the Spearman's rank correlation analysis among waiting times, admission rates and a set of performance indicators were conducted to help managers to read the phenomena that they need to investigate.

RESULTS

The combined reading of the correlations and waiting times-admission rates matrix shows that there are no optimal rules for all the EDs in managing admission rates and waiting times, but solutions have to be found considering mixed and personalized strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

The waiting times-admission rates matrix provides a tool able to support managers in detecting the problems related to the management of ED services. In particular, using this matrix, healthcare managers could be facilitated in the identification of possible solutions for their specific situation.

Updated framework on quality and safety in emergency medicine

OBJECTIVES

Quality and safety of emergency care is critical. Patients rely on emergency medicine (EM) for accessible, timely and high-quality care in addition to providing a 'safety-net' function. Demand is increasing, creating resource challenges in all settings. Where EM is well established, this is recognised through the implementation of quality standards and staff training for patient safety. In settings where EM is developing, immense system and patient pressures exist, thereby necessitating the availability of tiered standards appropriate to the local context.

METHODS

The original quality framework arose from expert consensus at the International Federation of Emergency Medicine (IFEM) Symposium for Quality and Safety in Emergency Care (UK, 2011). The IFEM Quality and Safety Special Interest Group members have subsequently refined it to achieve a consensus in 2018.

RESULTS

Patients should expect EDs to provide effective acute care. To do this, trained emergency personnel should make patient-centred, timely and expert decisions to provide care, supported by systems, processes, diagnostics, appropriate equipment and facilities. Enablers to high-quality care include appropriate staff, access to care (including financial), coordinated emergency care through the whole patient journey and monitoring of outcomes. Crowding directly impacts on patient quality of care, morbidity and mortality. Quality indicators should be pragmatic, measurable and prioritised as components of an improvement strategy which should be developed, tailored and implemented in each setting.

CONCLUSION

EDs globally have a remit to deliver the best care possible. IFEM has defined and updated an international consensus framework for quality and safety.

Musculoskeletal injury quality outcome indicators for the emergency department

High standards of care for musculoskeletal injuries presenting to emergency departments (ED) must be maintained despite financial constraints, the model of care in place, or the pressure to reach time-based performance measures. Outcome quality indicators (QIs) provide a tangible way of assessing and improving the outcomes of health-care delivery. This study aimed to develop a set of outcome QIs for musculoskeletal injuries in the ED that are meaningful, valid, feasible to collect, simple to use for clinical quality improvement and chosen by experts in the field. The study used a multi-phase mixed methods design, commencing with a systematic review of available outcome QIs. An expert panel then developed a set of preliminary QIs based on the available scientific evidence. Prospective observational data collection was undertaken across eight EDs with subsequent retrospective chart audits, follow-up phone calls and audit of administrative databases. After statistical analysis, validated results were presented to the expert panel who discussed, refined and formally voted on a final outcome QI set. A total of 41 preliminary outcome QIs were field tested in EDs, with data collected on 633 patients. Using the field study results, the expert panel voted 11 outcome QIs into the final set. These covered effectiveness of pain management, timeliness to discharge, re-presentations to the ED and unplanned visits to health professionals in the community, missed injuries, opioids side effects and the patient experience. An evidence-based set of outcome quality indicators is now available to support clinical quality improvement of musculoskeletal injury care in the ED setting.

Informing diversion strategy: A comparison of parent and general practitioner-referred paediatric patients presenting to a metropolitan hospital

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the characteristics and outcomes of parent-referred children differ substantially from general practitioner (GP)-referred children attending a metropolitan ED.

METHODS

Prospective cross-sectional observational study of consecutive patients aged less than 16 years of age attending a mixed adult and paediatric metropolitan teaching hospital ED in Melbourne. Data collected included patient characteristics (age, sex, arrival mode and triage category) and outcomes (admission, specialty consultation, treatment time >1 h, intravenous or nasogastric therapy, procedural sedation, procedures, imaging studies and pathology collection).

RESULTS

The outcome data of 4580 patients was analysed. Patients brought by parents directly to the ED did not differ from patients referred by their GP in age, sex, or triage category, but were more likely to arrive by ambulance (13% vs 2%, P < 0.01). Low-urgency GP-referred children were more likely to require a procedure (22% vs 15%, risk difference [RD] 0.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.02-0.13) and pathology tests (13% vs 8%, RD 0.05, 95% CI 0.01-0.1) than parent-referred children, but were similar for other outcomes. The proportion of low-urgency children who had no ED-specific care interventions was not significantly different between the groups (27% vs 32%, RD -0.06, 95% CI -0.11 to 0).

CONCLUSIONS

Children brought to ED directly by their parents or carers did not differ substantially from GP-referred children in their characteristics or outcomes. The use of referral source and triage categories to determine patient suitability for diversion to general practice may need to be reconsidered.

Emergency healthcare delivery for young adults during a planned mass gathering: A retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To describe patient presentation characteristics and outcomes for people aged 16-18 years pre, during and post a planned youth mass gathering event (MGE): 'Schoolies week' on the Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational study, including patient presentations by all young adults requiring care in the ED or in-event health services (EHS) over a 21-day period in 2014. Data analysis included descriptive and inferential statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 1029 patient presentations were made by people aged 16-18 years to the ED and EHS over the 21-day study period (139 pre, 695 during [275 in ED, 420 in EHS], 195 post Schoolies week). Some ED patient characteristics and outcomes varied between the pre, during and post Schoolies periods, such as patients age (P < 0.001), usual place of residence (P < 0.001) and not waiting for treatment (P = 0.015). Of the 24 375 registered MGE attendees, 420 (1.72% [95% confidence interval 1.57-1.89], 17.2/1000) presented for in-event care. Most patients were allocated an Australasian Triage Scale category of 4 (n = 162, 65.6%), with toxicology related presentations (n = 169, 44.9%). Transportation to hospital was undertaken for seven MGE attendees (0.03% [95% confidence interval 0.01-0.06], 0.3/1000).

CONCLUSIONS

Establishment of an in-event model of care for 1 week during Schoolies served as an effective hospital avoidance strategy for a planned youth MGE. Such in-event models of care may be considered for other similar future MGE.

Machine learning for prediction of septic shock at initial triage in emergency department

BACKGROUND

We hypothesized utilizing machine learning (ML) algorithms for screening septic shock in ED would provide better accuracy than qSOFA or MEWS.

METHODS

The study population was adult (≥20 years) patients visiting ED for suspected infection. Target event was septic shock within 24 h after arrival. Demographics, vital signs, level of consciousness, chief complaints (CC) and initial blood test results were used as predictors. CC were embedded into 16-dimensional vector space using singular value decomposition. Six base learners including support vector machine, gradient-boosting machine, random forest, multivariate adaptive regression splines and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and ridge regression and their ensembles were tested. We also trained and tested MLP networks with various setting.

RESULTS

A total of 49,560 patients were included and 4817 (9.7%) had septic shock within 24 h. All ML classifiers significantly outperformed qSOFA score, MEWS and their age-sex adjusted versions with their AUROC ranging from 0.883 to 0.929. The ensembles of the base classifiers showed the best performance and addition of CC embedding was associated with statistically significant increases in performance.

CONCLUSIONS

ML classifiers significantly outperforms clinical scores in screening septic shock at ED triage.

Advanced musculoskeletal physiotherapists are effective and safe in managing patients with acute low back pain presenting to emergency departments

Objective The aim of this study was to compare emergency department (ED) key performance indicators for patients presenting with low back pain and seen by an advanced musculoskeletal physiotherapist (AMP) with those seen by other non-AMP clinicians (ED doctors and nurse practitioners). Methods A retrospective audit (October 2012-September 2013) was performed of data from three metropolitan public hospital EDs to compare patients with low back pain seen by AMP and non-AMP clinicians. Outcome measures included ED length of stay, ED wait time, admission rates and re-presentation to the ED. Results One thousand and eighty-nine patients with low back pain were seen during AMP service hours (360 in the AMP group, 729 in the non-AMP group). Patients seen by the AMP had a significantly shorter ED wait time (median 13 vs 32min; P<0.001) and ED length of stay (median 141 vs 175min; P<0.001). Significantly fewer patients seen by the AMP were admitted (P<0.001), and this difference remained after accounting for the difference in triage code between the groups. Conclusions Improved ED metrics were demonstrated in patients with low back pain when managed by an AMP compared with patients seen by doctors and nurse practitioners. What is known about the topic? There is a growing body of literature regarding the role of AMPs in the Australian healthcare system in providing clinical services for patients with musculoskeletal conditions, including settings such as the ED. AMPs have proven to be safe and cost-effective, achieving high patient satisfaction and improved patient outcomes. However, there is little to no information regarding their effect on ED metrics, such as ED length of stay, wait time and admission rates for patients presenting to the ED with low back pain. What does this paper add? This paper demonstrates improved ED metrics for patients presenting to the ED with low back pain when seen by an AMP compared with patients seen by doctors and nurse practitioners. The specific improved metrics for these patients were decreased admission rates, decreased ED length of stay and decreased wait time. What are the implications for clinicians? This paper provides evidence that the AMPs effectively discharge patients admitted to the ED in a timely manner, without evidence of increased readmissions, compared with their medical and nursing colleagues. Support for the role of the AMP within the ED setting is strengthened by these results.

Anatomy of a demand shock: Quantitative analysis of crowding in hospital emergency departments in Victoria, Australia during the 2009 influenza pandemic

Objective

An infectious disease outbreak such as the 2009 influenza pandemic is an unexpected demand shock to hospital emergency departments (EDs). We analysed changes in key performance metrics in (EDs) in Victoria during this pandemic to assess the impact of this demand shock.

Design and setting

Descriptive time-series analysis and longitudinal regression analysis of data from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD) using data from the 38 EDs that submit data to the state’s Department of Health and Human Services.

Main outcome measures

Daily number of presentations, influenza-like-illness (ILI) presentations, daily mean waiting time (time to first being seen by a doctor), daily number of patients who did-not-wait and daily number of access-blocked patients (admitted patients with length of stay >8 hours) at a system and hospital-level.

Results

During the influenza pandemic, mean waiting time increased by up to 25%, access block increased by 32% and did not wait presentations increased by 69% above pre-pandemic levels. The peaks of all three crowding variables corresponded approximately to the peak in admitted ILI presentations. Longitudinal fixed-effects regression analysis estimated positive and statistically significant associations between mean waiting times, did not wait presentations and access block and ILI presentations.

Conclusions

This pandemic event caused excess demand leading to increased waiting times, did-not-wait patients and access block. Increases in admitted patients were more strongly associated with crowding than non-admitted patients during the pandemic period, so policies to divert or mitigate low-complexity non-admitted patients are unlikely to be effective in reducing ED crowding.

Why are people increasingly attending the emergency department? A study of the French healthcare system

Objective

It is often asserted that the crowding phenomenon in emergency departments (ED) can be explained by an increase in visits considered as non-urgent. The aim of our study was to quantify the increase in ED visit rates and to determine whether this increase was explained by non-severe visit types.

Methods

This observational study covers all ED visits between 2002 and 2015 by adult inhabitants of the Midi-Pyrénées region in France. Their characteristics were collected from the emergency visit summaries. We modelled the visit rates per year using linear regression models, and an increase was considered significant when the 95% CIs did not include zero. The severity of the patients’ condition during ED visit was determined through the ‘Clinical Classification of Emergency’ score. Non-severe visits were those where the patient was stable, and the physician deemed no intervention necessary. Intermediate-severity visits concerned patients who were stable but requiring diagnostic or therapeutic procedures.

Results

The 37 studied EDs managed >7 million visits between 2002 and 2015. There was an average increase of +4.83 (95% CI 4.33 to 5.32) visits per 1000 inhabitants each year. The increase in non-severe visit types was +0.88 (95% CI 0.42 to 1.34) per 1000 inhabitants, while the increase in intermediate-severity visit types was +3.26 (95% CI 2.62 to 3.91) per 1000 inhabitants. This increase affected all age groups and all sexes.

Discussion

It appears that the increase in ED use is not based on an increase in non-severe visit types, with a greater impact of intermediate-severity visit types requiring diagnostic or therapeutic procedures in ED.

Emergency department and hospital crowding: causes, consequences, and cures

Overcrowding with associated delays in patient care is a problem faced by emergency departments (EDs) worldwide. ED overcrowding can be the result of poor ED department design and prolonged throughput due to staffing, ancillary service performance, and flow processes. As such, the problem may be addressed by process improvements within the ED. A broad body of literature demonstrates that ED overcrowding can be a function of hospital capacity rather than an ED specific issue. Lack of institutional capacity leads to boarding in the ED with resultant ED crowding. This is a problem not solvable by the ED and must be addressed as an institution-wide problem. This paper discusses the causes of ED overcrowding, provides a brief overview of the drastic consequences, and discusses possible cures that have been successfully implemented.

How psychology might alleviate violence in queues: Perceived future wait and perceived load moderate violence against service providers

INTRODUCTION

Queues are inherent to service encounters, as it is not always possible to provide service to all clients at the exact moment they request service. Queues involve waiting for a service in a specific place that might also be crowded, they obstruct the client's' goal of receiving service, and at times lead clients to mistreat service providers and in extreme cases even attack them violently. We show, in a hospital setting, that perceived predicted future wait and load can buffer the causes of violence towards service staff.

METHODS

We combine objective data on crowdedness, reports of violence, and durations of time people waited, with psychological measures of perceived load and perceived future wait, collected from 226 people in the Emergency Department (ED) of a large hospital. Visitors to the ED were recruited as they waited for service. They indicated their perceived load in the ED and their perceived remaining wait for service. This data was then triangulated with objective operational data regarding the actual number of people waiting for service (i.e., crowdedness) and objective data regarding staff calls to security to stop violent accounts.

RESULTS

We find that with increased crowdedness, there are more calls to security reporting violence. However, this relationship is moderated by two factors: when people perceive the future wait to be short and when they perceive the load on the system to be high. Moreover, a three-way interaction shows that crowdedness is associated with more incidents of violence, however high perceived load and low perceived future wait are associated with fewer violent incidents.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper demonstrates the relationship between crowded queues and violence towards service staff, and suggests two psychological mechanisms for buffering such violence: reducing perceived future wait and elevating perceived load.

The impact of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a rapid realist review

OBJECTIVES

Worldwide, emergency healthcare systems are under intense pressure from ever-increasing demand and evidence is urgently needed to understand how this can be safely managed. An estimated 10%-43% of emergency department patients could be treated by primary care services. In England, this has led to a policy proposal and £100 million of funding (US$130 million), for emergency departments to stream appropriate patients to a co-located primary care facility so they are 'free to care for the sickest patients'. However, the research evidence to support this initiative is weak.

DESIGN

Rapid realist literature review.

SETTING

Emergency departments.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Articles describing general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments.

AIM

To develop context-specific theories that explain how and why general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments affect: patient flow; patient experience; patient safety and the wider healthcare system.

RESULTS

Ninety-six articles contributed data to theory development sourced from earlier systematic reviews, updated database searches (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane DSR & CRCT, DARE, HTA Database, BSC, PsycINFO and SCOPUS) and citation tracking. We developed theories to explain: how staff interpret the streaming system; different roles general practitioners adopt in the emergency department setting (traditional, extended, gatekeeper or emergency clinician) and how these factors influence patient (experience and safety) and organisational (demand and cost-effectiveness) outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple factors influence the effectiveness of emergency department streaming to general practitioners; caution is needed in embedding the policy until further research and evaluation are available. Service models that encourage the traditional general practitioner approach may have shorter process times for non-urgent patients; however, there is little evidence that this frees up emergency department staff to care for the sickest patients. Distinct primary care services offering increased patient choice may result in provider-induced demand. Economic evaluation and safety requires further research.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017069741.

Planning for the future: Modelling daily emergency department presentations in an Australian capital city

OBJECTIVE

To describe and model a decade of ED presentations in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, from July 2000 to June 2010 and to validate the model of ED presentations by testing the model's performance in forecasting the subsequent 2 year period of daily presentations, from July 2010 to June 2012.

METHODS

Retrospective analyses of prospectively collected data sourced from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset were performed and included 13 public hospitals. Time series modelling involved unobserved components modelling and forward selection of variables using incidence rate ratios. Forecasting with the model and validation were performed using the 2 year period up to June 2012. Model performance was calculated using the mean average percentage error.

RESULTS

A total of 7 031 242 patient presentations occurred to the sample metropolitan EDs in the 12 year study period. An absolute increase in mean daily ED presentations of 81.3% was observed. Presentations increased on Sunday and Monday incidence rate ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.11, P < 0.05). No monthly or seasonal pattern was evident. Public holidays were associated with increased presentations, incidence rate ratio of 1.11 (95% CI 1.08-1.15, P < 0.05). The model with the best goodness-of-fit and Wald χ² value included Sunday-Monday (vs Tuesday-Saturday), public holidays, the trend of gradual increase over time and a stochastic (random white noise) cycle. The mean average percentage error for the 2 year forecast period was 3.6%.

CONCLUSION

We have produced and validated a model for predicting daily ED presentations across a major city. Even though ED presentations are multifactorial, city-wide daily presentations are predictable and explained by a small number of variables. The model will have implications for future health planning.

Effects of Real-time EMS Direction on Optimizing EMS Turnaround and Load-balancing Between Neighboring Hospital Campuses

Background: Implemented in September 2017, the "nurse navigator program" identified the preferred emergency department (ED) destination within a single healthcare system using real-time assessment of hospital and ED capacity and crowding metrics. Objective: The primary objective of the navigator program was to improve load-balancing between two closely situated emergency departments, both of which feed into the same inpatient facilities of a single healthcare system. A registered nurse in the hospital command center made real-time recommendations to emergency medical services (EMS) providers via radio, identifying the preferred destination for each transported patient based on such factors as chief complaint, ED volume, and waiting room census. The destination decision was made via the utilization of various real-time measures of health system capacity in conjunction with existing protocols dictating campus-specific clinical service availability. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of this real-time ambulance destination direction program as reflected in changes to emergency medical services (EMS) turnaround time and the incidence of intercampus transports. Methods: A before-and-after time series was performed to determine if program implementation resulted in a change in EMS turnaround time or incidence of intercampus transfers. Results: Implementation of the nurse navigator program was associated with a statistically significant decrease in EMS turnaround times for all levels of dispatch and transport at both hospital campuses. Intercampus transfers also showed significant improvement following implementation of the intervention, although this effect lagged behind implementation by several months. Conclusion: A proactive approach to EMS destination control using a nurse navigator with access to real-time hospital and ED capacity metrics appears to be an effective method of decreasing EMS turnaround time.

Triage in Australian emergency departments: Results of a New South Wales survey

AIM

To describe current models of triage, the preparation and education of triage nurses, and methods of auditing triage practice in New South Wales emergency departments.

BACKGROUND

Triage is a critical component of emergency department practice; affecting patient safety and access to emergency care. Within Australia, triage is an autonomous role predominantly conducted by trained emergency nurses. Patient safety and timely access to emergency care relies upon the experience, education and training of emergency triage nurses. To date, little is known about triage models of care, the preparation and education of triage nurses, and assessment of triage practice and decision accuracy.

METHOD

Descriptive, exploratory study design employing a self-reporting cross-sectional survey of clinical nurse consultants and educators in New South Wales.

RESULTS

The survey results reveal variability in models of triage, and the eligibility, preparation and education requirements of triage nurses; that appear geographically related. Auditing of triage practice was commonly undertaken retrospectively; feedback to triage nurses was infrequent. The survey found evidence of locally developed guidelines directing triage category allocation for specific conditions or symptoms.

CONCLUSION

The purpose of triage is to ensure that the level of emergency care provided is commensurate with clinical urgency. Variability in the preparation, education and evaluation of triage nurses may in and of itself, contribute to poor patient outcomes. Further, workforce size and geography may impede auditing and the provision of feedback, which are critical to improving triage practice and triage nurse performance. It is imperative that the Emergency Triage Education Kit be revised and maintained in tandem with future revisions of the Australasian Triage Scale.

Management of abnormal observations in the emergency department: A review

OBJECTIVE

To assess utility and accuracy of general observation modified early warning score charts; and compare sensitivity and specificity of single- and multiple-parameter-based trigger scores on patient outcomes in the ED.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort clinical audit of all adult Modified Early Warning Score charts in the ED of a mixed tertiary hospital over 4 weeks. Data extracted included recorded parameters required to calculate Modified Early Warning Score and evidence of response.

RESULTS

Of 5901 ED presentations, medical records system identified 2482 Modified Early Warning Score; 347 were missing or blank. Of 2135 Modified Early Warning Score charts, 19.5% contained a calculation error, 51.9% had one or more missing parameters and 36.6% did not have usual/target systolic blood pressure recorded; with 25.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.3-27.0) charts correctly completed. Four hundred and forty-three had a single-abnormal parameter of which chart review showed 96.6% (94.5-97.3) were identified as abnormal by nurses with 25.7% (21.9-30.0); only 5.6% (3.9-8.2) had evidence of recognition by medical staff. Modified Early Warning Score sensitivity and specificity for ward admission was 14.7% and 96.1%, respectively. Modelling using the dataset of a single-abnormal parameter suggested sensitivity and specificity of 31.6% and 85.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights serious deficiencies in documentation of abnormal parameters and emergency response. It has also shown poor accuracy of both single- and multiple-parameter-based trigger scores in predicting patient outcomes within the ED. However, single-parameter-based trigger scores are twice as sensitive as total Modified Early Warning Score for admission and reduces documentation error by 23%.

Improvement attributes in healthcare: implications for integrated care

Purpose Healthcare quality improvement is a key concern for policy makers, regulators, carers and service users. Despite a contemporary consensus among policy makers that integrated care represents a means to substantially improve service outcomes, progress has been slow. Difficulties achieving sustained improvement at scale imply that methods employed are not sufficient and that healthcare improvement attributes may be different when compared to prior reference domains. The purpose of this paper is to examine and synthesise key improvement attributes relevant to a complex healthcare change process, specifically integrated care. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on an integrative literature review on systemic improvement in healthcare. Findings A central theme emerging from the literature review indicates that implementing systemic change needs to address the relationship between vision, methods and participant social dynamics. Practical implications Accommodating personal and professional network dynamics is required for systemic improvement, especially among high autonomy individuals. This reinforces the need to recognise the change process as taking place in a complex adaptive system where personal/professional purpose/meaning is central to the process. Originality/value Shared personal/professional narratives are insufficiently recognised as a powerful change force, under-represented in linear and rational empirical improvement approaches.