Influence of alternative thresholds for initiating HIV treatment on quality-adjusted life expectancy: a decision model

Impact of Decarceration Plus Alcohol, Substance Use, and Mental Health Screening on Life Expectancies of Black Sexual Minority Men and Black Transgender Women Living With HIV in the United States: A Simulation Study Based on HPTN 061

BACKGROUND

Given the disproportionate rates of incarceration and lower life expectancy (LE) among Black sexual minority men (BSMM) and Black transgender women (BTW) with HIV, we modeled the impact of decarceration and screening for psychiatric conditions and substance use on LE of US BSMM/BTW with HIV.

METHODS

We augmented a microsimulation model previously validated to predict LE and leading causes of death in the US with estimates from the HPTN 061 cohort and the Veteran's Aging Cohort Studies. We estimated independent associations among psychiatric and substance use disorders, to simulate the influence of treatment of one condition on improvement on others. We used this augmented simulation to estimate LE for BSMM/BTW with HIV with a history of incarceration under alternative policies of decarceration (ie, reducing the fraction exposed to incarceration), screening for psychiatric conditions and substance use, or both.

RESULTS

Baseline LE was 61.3 years. Reducing incarceration by 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100% increased LE by 0.29, 0.31, 0.53, and 1.08 years, respectively, versus no reductions in incarceration. When reducing incarceration by 33% and implementing screening for alcohol, tobacco, substance use, and depression, in which a positive screen triggers diagnostic assessment for all psychiatric and substance use conditions and linkage to treatment, LE increased by 1.52 years compared with no screening or decarceration.

DISCUSSION

LE among BSMM/BTW with HIV is short compared with other people with HIV. Reducing incarceration and improving screening and treatment of psychiatric conditions and substance use could substantially increase LE in this population.

Viral Breakthrough Episodes Among Persons with HIV in Care in Alberta, Canada: Clinical and Public Health Implications

Unsuppressed HIV viremia damages immunity and increases the risk for secondary HIV transmission. Successful engagement of persons with HIV (PWH) into care resulting in viral suppression is vital. PWH already engaged in care, who, after achieving viral suppression, experience viral breakthrough episodes (VBEs) with a sequence of suppressed/unsuppressed/suppressed viral loads remain problematic. We examined the frequency and outcomes of PWH experiencing VBE. HIV care is provided at no cost to all patients under Alberta's universal health program. All PWH followed at Southern Alberta Clinic, Canada, with two or more viral load tests between January 1, 2010, and January 1, 2020, were evaluated. Sociodemographic, clinical, and lifestyle variables were determined along with health outcomes (CD4 levels, HIV-related hospitalizations, and HIV/AIDS-related mortality). Descriptive and multi-variable analyses were performed comparing PWH with and without VBEs. Of 2096 PWH, 386 (18%) experienced one or more VBEs. A higher risk of VBEs was seen in adjusted analyses in those diagnosed age ≤40 years. Increased risk of VBE was seen with injection drug use (46%) and in heterosexuals (56%) compared with MSM. Experience of intimate partner violence, unstable housing, homelessness, and past incarceration also increased risks by 36%, 44% 79%, and 51%, respectively. PWH with VBEs experienced lower CD4 counts (median -417/mm³ vs. 576/mm³), higher rates of HIV-related hospitalizations (16% vs. 5%), and a 67% increased risk of death (95% confidence interval 1.17-2.39) over the study period. Nearly 20% of all PWH, after achieving viral suppression, experienced VBEs. Distinct clinical, lifestyle, and life experiences predict PWH at greatest risk for more than one VBEs. Serious negative health outcomes of VBEs were identified, suggesting that novel customized care programming is required for PWH at greatest risk.

Association of Retinal Vascular Caliber and Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Patients With the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

Purpose

To evaluate the relationship between retinal vascular caliber and AMD in patients with AIDS.

Methods

Participants enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS had retinal photographs taken at enrollment. Retinal vascular caliber (central retinal artery equivalent [CRAE] and central retinal vein equivalent [CRVE]) and intermediate-stage AMD were determined from these retinal photographs. Photographs were evaluated by graders at a centralized reading center, using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study grading system for AMD and semiautomated techniques for evaluating retinal vascular caliber.

Results

Of the 1171 participants evaluated, 110 (9.4%) had AMD and 1061 (90.6%) did not. Compared with participants without AMD, participants with AMD had larger mean CRAEs (151 ± 16 μm versus 147 ± 16 μm; P = 0.009) and mean CRVEs (228 ± 24 μm versus 223 ± 25 μm; P = 0.02). The unadjusted differences were: CRAE, 4.3 μm (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-7.5; P = 0.009) and CRVE, 5.5 μm (95% CI 0.7-10.3; P = 0.02). After adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, sex, human immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV) transmission category, smoking, enrollment and nadir CD4+ T cells, and enrollment and maximum HIV load, the differences between patients with and without AMD were as follows: CRAE, 5.4 μm (95% CI 2.3-8.5; P = 0.001) and CRVE, 6.0 μm (95% CI 1.4-10.6; P = 0.01).

Conclusions

In patients with AIDS, AMD is associated with greater retinal arteriolar and venular calibers, suggesting a role for shared pathogenic mechanisms, such as persistent systemic inflammation.

Is more research always needed? Estimating optimal sample sizes for trials of retention in care interventions for HIV-positive East Africans

INTRODUCTION

Given the serious health consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy, randomised control trials of interventions to improve retention in care may be warranted. As funding for global HIV research is finite, it may be argued that choices about sample size should be tied to maximising health.

METHODS

For an East African setting, we calculated expected value of sample information and expected net benefit of sampling to identify the optimal sample size (greatest return on investment) and to quantify net health gains associated with research. Two hypothetical interventions were analysed: (1) one aimed at reducing disengagement from HIV care and (2) another aimed at finding/relinking disengaged patients.

RESULTS

When the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold was within a plausible range (1-3 × GDP; US$1377-4130/QALY), the optimal sample size was zero for both interventions, meaning that no further research was recommended because the pre-research probability of an intervention's effectiveness and value was sufficient to support a decision on whether to adopt the intervention and any new information gained from additional research would likely not change that decision. In threshold analyses, at a higher WTP of $5200 the optimal sample size for testing a risk reduction intervention was 2750 per arm. For the outreach intervention, the optimal sample size remained zero across a wide range of WTP thresholds and was insensitive to variation. Limitations, including not varying all inputs in the model, may have led to an underestimation of the value of investing in new research.

CONCLUSION

In summary, more research is not always needed, particularly when there is moderately robust prestudy belief about intervention effectiveness and little uncertainty about the value (cost-effectiveness) of the intervention. Users can test their own assumptions at http://torchresearch.org.

Insurance status and mortality among patients with AIDS

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to evaluate risk factors for mortality, including health care insurance status, among patients with AIDS in the era of modern combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

METHODS

This study was part of the prospective, multicentre, observational Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS (LSOCA). Patients were classified as having private health care insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, or no insurance. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death were calculated using proportional hazards regression models and staggered entries, anchored to the AIDS diagnosis date.

RESULTS

Among 2363 participants with AIDS, 97% were treated with cART. At enrolment, 31% of participants had private insurance, 29% had Medicare, 24% had Medicaid, and 16% were uninsured. Noninfectious, age-related diseases, such as hypertension, diabetes, and renal disease, were more frequent among persons with Medicare than among those with private insurance. Compared with those who were privately insured, mortality was greater among participants with Medicare [adjusted HR (HR_adj ) 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.67; P = 0.008]. Among participants with a suppressed HIV viral load, compared with those who were privately insured, HR_adj values for mortality were 1.93 (95% CI 1.08-3.44; P = 0.02) for those with Medicare and 2.09 (95% CI 1.02-4.27; P = 0.04) for those with Medicaid. Mortality among initially uninsured participants was not significantly different from that for privately insured participants, but these participants typically obtained ART and insurance during follow-up. Compared with privately insured participants, time-updated HR_adj values for mortality were 1.34 (95% CI 1.05-1.70; P = 0.02) for those with Medicare, 1.34 (95% CI 1.01-1.80; P = 0.05) for those with Medicaid, and 1.35 (95% CI 0.97-1.88; P = 0.05) for those who were uninsured.

CONCLUSIONS

In persons with AIDS, compared with those with private insurance, those with public insurance had increased mortality, possibly as a result of a greater burden of noninfectious, age-related diseases.

Incidence of Intermediate-stage Age-related Macular Degeneration in Patients With Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome

PURPOSE

To evaluate the incidence of intermediate-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

Patients enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS (LSOCA) underwent 5- and 10-year follow-up retinal photographs. Intermediate-stage AMD (AREDS stage 3) was determined from these photographs by graders at a centralized Reading Center, using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study-2 grading system. The incidence of AMD in LSOCA was compared with that in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-uninfected cohort, which used a similar photographic methodology.

RESULTS

The incidence of AMD in LSOCA was 0.65/100 person-years (PY). In a multivariate analysis the only significant risk factor for AMD in LSOCA was smoking; the relative risk vs never-smokers was 3.4 for former smokers (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3, 9.5; P = .02) and 3.3 for current smokers (95% CI 1.1, 9.7; P = .03). Compared with the MESA cohort, the race/ethnicity- and sex-adjusted risk of AMD in LSOCA was 1.75 (95% CI 1.16, 2.64; P = .008), despite the fact that the mean age of the MESA cohort was 17 years greater than the LSOCA cohort (61 ± 9 years vs 44 ± 8 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with AIDS have a 1.75-fold increased race- and sex-adjusted incidence of intermediate-stage AMD compared with that found in an HIV-uninfected cohort. This increased incidence is consistent with the increased incidence of other age-related diseases in antiretroviral-treated, immune-restored, HIV-infected persons when compared with HIV-uninfected persons.

Using the multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) to optimize an HIV care continuum intervention for vulnerable populations: a study protocol

BACKGROUND

More than half of persons living with HIV (PLWH) in the United States are insufficiently engaged in HIV primary care and not taking antiretroviral therapy (ART), mainly African Americans/Blacks and Hispanics. In the proposed project, a potent and innovative research methodology, the multiphase optimization strategy (MOST), will be employed to develop a highly efficacious, efficient, scalable, and cost-effective intervention to increase engagement along the HIV care continuum. Whereas randomized controlled trials are valuable for evaluating the efficacy of multi-component interventions as a package, they are not designed to evaluate which specific components contribute to efficacy. MOST, a pioneering, engineering-inspired framework, addresses this problem through highly efficient randomized experimentation to assess the performance of individual intervention components and their interactions. We propose to use MOST to engineer an intervention to increase engagement along the HIV care continuum for African American/Black and Hispanic PLWH not well engaged in care and not taking ART. Further, the intervention will be optimized for cost-effectiveness. A similar set of multi-level factors impede both HIV care and ART initiation for African American/Black and Hispanic PLWH, primary among them individual- (e.g., substance use, distrust, fear), social- (e.g., stigma), and structural-level barriers (e.g., difficulties accessing ancillary services). Guided by a multi-level social cognitive theory, and using the motivational interviewing approach, the study will evaluate five distinct culturally based intervention components (i.e., counseling sessions, pre-adherence preparation, support groups, peer mentorship, and patient navigation), each designed to address a specific barrier to HIV care and ART initiation. These components are well-grounded in the empirical literature and were found acceptable, feasible, and promising with respect to efficacy in a preliminary study.

METHODS/DESIGN

Study aims are: 1) using a highly efficient fractional factorial experimental design, identify which of five intervention components contribute meaningfully to improvement in HIV viral suppression, and secondary outcomes of ART adherence and engagement in HIV primary care; 2) identify mediators and moderators of intervention component efficacy; and 3) using a mathematical modeling approach, build the most cost-effective and efficient intervention package from the efficacious components. A heterogeneous sample of African American/Black and Hispanic PLWH (with respect to age, substance use, and sexual minority status) will be recruited with a proven hybrid sampling method using targeted sampling in community settings and peer recruitment (N = 512).

DISCUSSION

This is the first study to apply the MOST framework in the field of HIV prevention and treatment. This innovative study will produce a culturally based HIV care continuum intervention for the nation's most vulnerable PLWH, optimized for cost-effectiveness, and with exceptional levels of efficacy, efficiency, and scalability.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02801747 , Registered June 8, 2016.

Economic evaluation of mobile phone text message interventions to improve adherence to HIV therapy in Kenya

BACKGROUND

A surge in mobile phone availability has fueled low cost short messaging service (SMS) adherence interventions. Multiple systematic reviews have concluded that some SMS-based interventions are effective at improving antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, and they are hypothesized to improve retention in care. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of SMS-based adherence interventions and explore the added value of retention benefits.

METHODS

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of weekly SMS interventions compared to standard care among HIV+ individuals initiating ART for the first time in Kenya. We used an individual level micro-simulation model populated with data from two SMS-intervention trials, an East-African HIV+ cohort and published literature. We estimated average quality adjusted life years (QALY) and lifetime HIV-related costs from a healthcare perspective. We explored a wide range of scenarios and assumptions in one-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

We found that SMS-based adherence interventions were cost-effective by WHO standards, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $1,037/QALY. In the secondary analysis, potential retention benefits improved the cost-effectiveness of SMS intervention (ICER = $864/QALY). In multivariate sensitivity analyses, the interventions remained cost-effective in most analyses, but the ICER was highly sensitive to intervention costs, effectiveness and average cohort CD4 count at ART initiation. SMS interventions remained cost-effective in a test and treat scenario where individuals were assumed to initiate ART upon HIV detection.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective SMS interventions would likely increase the efficiency of ART programs by improving HIV treatment outcomes at relatively low costs, and they could facilitate achievement of the UNAIDS goal of 90% viral suppression among those on ART by 2020.

HIV Treatment in Resource-Limited Environments: Treatment Coverage and Insights

BACKGROUND

The effects of antiretroviral treatment on the HIV epidemic are complex. HIV-infected individuals survive longer with treatment, but are less likely to transmit the disease. The standard coverage measure improves with the deaths of untreated individuals and does not consider the fact that some individuals may acquire the disease and die before receiving treatment, making it susceptible to overestimating the long-run performance of antiretroviral treatment programs.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to propose an alternative coverage definition to better measure the long-run performance of HIV treatment programs.

METHODS

We introduced cumulative incidence-based coverage as an alternative to measure an HIV treatment program's success. To numerically compare the definitions, we extended a simulation model of HIV disease and treatment to represent a dynamic population that includes uninfected and HIV-infected individuals. Also, we estimated the additional resources required to implement various treatment policies in a resource-limited setting.

RESULTS

In a synthetic population of 600,000 people of which 44,000 (7.6%) are infected, and eligible for treatment with a CD4 count of less than 500 cells/mm(3), assuming a World Health Organization (WHO)-defined coverage rate of 50% of eligible people, and treating these individuals with a single treatment regimen, the gap between the current WHO coverage definition and our proposed one is as much as 16% over a 10-year planning horizon.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative incidence-based definition of coverage yields a more accurate representation of the long-run treatment success and along with the WHO and other definitions of coverage provides a better understanding of the HIV treatment progress.

Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypothetical Strategies to Enhance Retention in Care within HIV Treatment Programs in East Africa

OBJECTIVES

Attrition from care among HIV infected patients can lead to poor clinical outcomes. Our objective was to evaluate hypothetical interventions seeking to improve retention-in-care (RIC) for HIV-infected patients in East Africa, asking whether they could offer favorable value compared to earlier ART initiation.

METHODS

We used a micro-simulation model to analyze two RIC focused strategies within an East African HIV treatment program--"risk reduction," defined as intervention(s) that decrease the risk of attrition from care; and "outreach," defined as interventions that find patients and relink them with care. We compared this to earlier ART treatment as a measure of the potential health benefits forgone (e.g., opportunity cost).

RESULTS

Reducing attrition by 40% at an average cost of $10 per person remains a less efficient use of resources compared to ensuring full access to ART (cost- effectiveness ratio $1300 vs $3700) for ART eligible patients. An outreach intervention had limited clinical benefit in our simulation. If intervention costs are <$10 per person, however, an intervention able to achieve a 40% (or greater) reduction in attrition may be a cost-effective next implementation option following implementation of earlier ART treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that programs should consider retention focused programs once they have already achieved high degrees of ART coverage among eligible patients. It is important that decision makers understand the epidemiology and associated outcomes of those patients who are classified as lost to follow up in their systems prior to implementation in order to achieve the highest value.

Implementing tobacco use treatment guidelines in community health centers in Vietnam

Background

Vietnam has a smoking prevalence that is the second highest among Southeast Asian countries (SEACs). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), most reductions in mortality from tobacco use in the near future will be achieved through helping current users quit. Yet, largely due to a lack of research on strategies for implementing WHO-endorsed treatment guidelines in primary care settings, services to treat tobacco dependence are not readily available to smokers in low middle-income countries (LMICs) like Vietnam. The objective of this study is to conduct a cluster randomized controlled trial that compares the effectiveness of two system-level strategies for implementing evidence-based guidelines for the treatment of tobacco use in 26 public community health centers (CHCs) in Vietnam.

Methods/Design

The current study will use a cluster-randomized design and multiple data sources (patient exit interviews, provider and village health worker (VHW) surveys, and semi-structured provider/VHW interviews) to study the process of adapting and implementing clinical practice guidelines in Vietnam and theory-driven mechanisms hypothesized to explain the comparative effectiveness of the two strategies for implementation. CHCs will be randomly assigned to either of the following: (1) training plus clinical reminder system (TC) or (2) TC + referral to a VHW (TCR) for three in person counseling sessions. The primary outcome is provider adherence to tobacco use treatment guidelines. The secondary outcome is 6-month biochemically verified smoking abstinence.

Discussion

The proposed implementation strategies draw on evidence-based approaches and a growing literature that supports the effectiveness of integrating community health workers as members of the health care team to improve access to preventive services. We hypothesize that the value of these implementation strategies is additive and that incorporating a referral resource that allows providers to delegate the task of offering counseling (TCR) will be superior to TC alone in improving delivery of cessation assistance to smokers. The findings of this research have potential to guide large-scale adoption of promising strategies for implementing and disseminating tobacco use treatment guidelines throughout the public health system in Vietnam and will serve as a model for similar action in other LMICs.

Trial registration

NCT01967654

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13012-015-0328-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Measuring the Potential Impact of Combination HIV Prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa

A public health approach to combination HIV prevention is advocated to contain the epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We explore the implications of universal access to treatment along with HIV education scale-up in the region. We develop an HIV transmission model to investigate the impacts of universal access to treatment, as well as an analytical framework to estimate the effects of HIV education scale-up on the epidemic. We calibrate the model with data from South Africa and simulate the impacts of universal access to treatment along with HIV education scale-up on prevalence, incidence, and HIV-related deaths over a course of 15 years. Our results show that the impact of combined interventions is significantly larger than the summation of individual intervention impacts (super-additive property). The combined strategy of universal access to treatment and HIV education scale-up decreases the incidence rate by 74% over the course of 15 years, whereas universal access to treatment and HIV education scale up will separately decrease that by 43% and 8%, respectively. Combination HIV prevention could be notably effective in transforming HIV epidemic to a low-level endemicity. Our results suggest that in designing effective combination prevention in sub-Saharan Africa, priorities should be given to achieving universal access to treatment as quickly as possible and improving compliance to condom use.

Prevalence of intermediate-stage age-related macular degeneration in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prevalence of intermediate-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study of patients with AIDS enrolled in the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS.

METHODS

Intermediate-stage AMD was determined from enrollment retinal photographs by graders at a centralized Reading Center, using the Age-Related Eye Disease Study grading system. Graders were masked as to clinical data.

RESULTS

Of 1825 participants with AIDS and no ocular opportunistic infections, 9.9% had intermediate-stage AMD. Risk factors included age, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6, 2.3, P < .001) for every decade of age; the prevalence of AMD ranged from 4.0% for participants 30-39 years old to 24.3% for participants ≥60 years old. Other risk factors included the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk groups of injection drug use (OR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5, 3.9, P < .001) or heterosexual contact (OR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.3, 2.8, P = .001). Compared with the HIV-uninfected population in the Beaver Dam Offspring Study, there was an approximate 4-fold increased age-adjusted prevalence of intermediate-stage AMD.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with AIDS have an increased age-adjusted prevalence of intermediate-stage AMD compared with that found in a non-HIV-infected cohort evaluated with similar methods. This increased prevalence is consistent with the increased prevalence of other age-related diseases in antiretroviral-treated, immune-restored, HIV-infected persons when compared to non-HIV-infected persons.

Long-term Outcomes of Cytomegalovirus Retinitis in the Era of Modern Antiretroviral Therapy: Results from a United States Cohort

PURPOSE

To describe the long-term outcomes of patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis and AIDS in the modern era of combination antiretroviral therapy.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with AIDS and CMV retinitis.

METHODS

Immune recovery, defined as a CD4+ T-cell count >100 cells/μl for ≥3 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality, visual impairment (visual acuity <20/40), and blindness (visual acuity ≤20/200) on logarithmic visual acuity charts and loss of visual field on quantitative Goldmann perimetry.

RESULTS

Patients without immune recovery had a mortality of 44.4/100 person-years (PYs) and a median survival of 13.5 months after the diagnosis of CMV retinitis, whereas those with immune recovery had a mortality of 2.7/100 PYs (P < 0.001) and an estimated median survival of 27.0 years after the diagnosis of CMV retinitis. The rates of bilateral visual impairment and blindness were 0.9 and 0.4/100 PYs, respectively, and were similar between those with and without immune recovery. Among those with immune recovery, the rate of visual field loss was approximately 1% of the normal field per year, whereas among those without immune recovery it was approximately 7% of the normal field per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Among persons with CMV retinitis and AIDS, if there is immune recovery, long-term survival is likely, whereas if there is no immune recovery, the mortality rate is substantial. Although higher than the rates in the population not infected by human immunodeficiency virus, the rates of bilateral visual impairment and blindness are low, especially when compared with rates in the era before modern antiretroviral therapy.

Incidence and long-term outcomes of the human immunodefıciency virus neuroretinal disorder in patients with AIDS

PURPOSE

Patients with AIDS have an abnormality of retina/optic nerve function, manifested as decreased contrast sensitivity (in the absence of ocular opportunistic infections or media opacity), abnormalities on automated perimetry, and loss of retinal nerve fiber layer, even among those with good visual acuity, termed the "human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) neuroretinal disorder." The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence, incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of HIV neuroretinal disorder.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1822 patients with AIDS without ocular infections or media opacities.

METHODS

Patients with HIV neuroretinal disorder were identified by a contrast sensitivity <1.50 log units in either eye in the absence of ocular opportunistic infections or media opacity.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence of HIV neuroretinal disorder, mortality, visual impairment (visual acuity ≤20/50), and blindness (≤20/200) on logarithmic visual acuity charts.

RESULTS

Sixteen percent of participants had HIV neuroretinal disorder at enrollment. The estimated cumulative incidence by 20 years after AIDS diagnosis was 51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 46-55). Human immunodeficiency virus neuroretinal disorder was more common in women and African Americans. Risk factors for HIV neuroretinal disorder included hepatitis C infection, low CD4+ T cells, and detectable HIV RNA in the blood. Patients with HIV neuroretinal disorder had a 70% excess mortality versus those without it, even after adjusting for CD4+ T cells and HIV load (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.1; P < 0.0001). Patients with HIV neuroretinal disorder had increased risks of bilateral visual impairment (HR, 6.5; 95% CI, 2.6-10.6; P < 0.0001) and blindness (HR, 5.9; 95% CI, 2.8-13.7; P = 0.01) versus those without HIV neuroretinal disorder.

CONCLUSIONS

Human immunodeficiency virus neuroretinal disorder is a common finding among patients with AIDS, and it is associated with an increased mortality and an increased risk of visual impairment. Successful antiretroviral therapy decreases but does not eliminate the risk of HIV neuroretinal disorder.

Role of Bax in death of uninfected retinal cells during murine cytomegalovirus retinitis

PURPOSE

Extensive death of uninfected bystander neuronal cells is an important component of the pathogenesis of cytomegalovirus retinitis. Our previous results have shown that caspase 3-dependent and -independent pathways are involved in death of uninfected bystander cells during murine cytomegalovirus (MCMV) retinitis and also that Bcl-2, an important inhibitor of apoptosis via the Bax-mediated mitochondrial pathway, is downregulated during this process. The purpose of this study was to determine whether Bax-mediated mitochondrial damage has a significant role in the death of uninfected retinal cells.

METHODS

BALB/c mice, Bax(-/-) mice, or Bax(+/+) mice were immunosuppressed with methylprednisolone and infected with 5 × 10(3) plaque-forming units (PFU) of the K181 strain of MCMV via the supraciliary route. Injected eyes were analyzed by plaque assay, electron microscopy, hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) staining, TUNEL assay, Western blot (for caspase 3, caspase 12, Bax, receptor interacting protein-1 [RIP1] and receptor interacting protein-3 [RIP3]), as well as immunohistochemical staining for MCMV early antigen and cleaved caspase 3.

RESULTS

Significantly more Bax was detected in mitochondrial fractions of MCMV-infected eyes than in mitochondrial fractions of mock-infected control eyes. Furthermore, the level of cleaved caspase 3 was significantly lower in MCMV-infected Bax(-/-) eyes than in MCMV-infected Bax(+/+) eyes. However, more caspase 3-independent cell death of uninfected bystander retinal cells and more cleaved RIP1 were observed in Bax(-/-) than in Bax(+/+) eyes.

CONCLUSIONS

During MCMV retinitis, Bax is activated and has an important role in death of uninfected bystander retinal cells by caspase 3-dependent apoptosis. Although the exact mechanism remains to be deciphered, active Bax might also prevent death of some types of uninfected retinal cells by a caspase 3-independent pathway.

Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

Background

Many analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Objectives

To determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS.

Methods

We enhanced a previously described simulation model of the optimal time to initiate ART to incorporate the rate of availability of new antiviral drugs. We assumed that the future rate of availability of new drugs would be similar to the past rate of availability of new drugs, and we estimated the past rate by fitting a statistical model to actual HIV drug approval data from 1982–2010. We then tested whether or not the future availability of new drugs affected the model-predicted optimal time to initiate ART based on clinical outcomes, considering treatment initiation thresholds of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm³. We also quantified the impact of the future availability of new drugs on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE).

Results

In base case analysis, considering the availability of new drugs raised the optimal starting CD4 threshold for most patients to 500 cells/mm³. The predicted gains in outcomes due to availability of pipeline drugs were generally small (less than 1%), but for young patients with a high viral load could add as much as a 4.9% (1.73 years) increase in LE and a 8% (2.43 QALY) increase in QALE, because these patients were particularly likely to exhaust currently available ART regimens before they died. In sensitivity analysis, increasing the rate of availability of new drugs did not substantially alter the results. Lowering the toxicity of future ART drugs had greater potential to increase benefit for many patient groups, increasing QALE by as much as 10%.

Conclusions

The future availability of new ART drugs without lower toxicity raises optimal treatment initiation for most patients, and improves clinical outcomes, especially for younger patients with higher viral loads. Reductions in toxicity of future ART drugs could impact optimal treatment initiation and improve clinical outcomes for all HIV patients.

Evidence informing the intersection of HIV, aging and health: a scoping review

The growing number of people over age 50 with HIV requires research, policy, and practice to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the health consequences of HIV in older individuals. We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed and grey literature published since 1996 to explore the impacts of aging on the health of older people with HIV (50 years or older). We included 209 studies (two systematic reviews, 174 quantitative studies, 28 qualitative studies, and five mixed methods studies). Health topics addressed include: HIV- and aging-related comorbidities, disease progression, neurocognitive functioning, mental health conditions, psychological well-being, social supports, stigma, antiretroviral adherence, health care utilization/access, and sexual risk behaviour. We recommend that future research takes a broader view of health, looks at aging from a strength-based perspective and examines the issue using diverse perspectives (i.e., geographic location, multiple methods, time of diagnosis, time on antiretroviral therapy (ART), demographic diversity).

Expanded HIV testing in the US Department of Veterans Affairs, 2009-2011

OBJECTIVES

We measured HIV testing and seropositivity among veterans in Veterans Affairs (VA) care for calendar years 2009 through 2011 and analyzed 2011 results by patient demographics.

METHODS

We performed a repeated-measures cross-sectional study using standardized electronic data extraction from the VA electronic health records for all veterans with at least 1 outpatient visit during 2009 through 2011. We analyzed testing rates and seropositivity by demographic characteristics for 2011.

RESULTS

Of veterans with an outpatient visit, 20.0% had an HIV test in 2011, compared with 9.2% in 2009. Documented HIV testing rates were highest in women and Blacks. Of confirmed positive test results, 67.0% were in outpatients older than 50 years. Seropositivity was highest among men aged 30 to 49 years, women aged 50 to 69 years, and Black outpatients of both genders. Implementation of an electronic clinical reminder was associated with higher testing rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The significant effect of an electronic clinical reminder suggests that such decision support tools can substantially increase testing rates. The frequency of positive test results in older individuals suggests the need for additional work to define optimum approaches to HIV testing in this population.

Life expectancy living with HIV: recent estimates and future implications

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically increased since effective antiretroviral therapy has been available, and still continues to improve. Here, we review the latest literature on estimates of life expectancy and consider the implications for future research.

RECENT FINDINGS

With timely diagnosis, access to a variety of current drugs and good lifelong adherence, people with recently acquired infections can expect to have a life expectancy which is nearly the same as that of HIV-negative individuals. Modelling studies suggest that life expectancy could improve further if there were increased uptake of HIV testing, better antiretroviral regimens and treatment strategies, and the adoption of healthier lifestyles by those living with HIV. In particular, earlier diagnosis is one of the most important factors associated with better life expectancy. A consequence of improved survival is the increasing number of people with HIV who are aged over 50 years old, and further research into the impact of ageing on HIV-positive people will therefore become crucial. The development of age-specific HIV treatment and management guidelines is now called for.

SUMMARY

Analyses on cohort studies and mathematical modelling studies have been used to estimate life expectancy of those with HIV, providing useful insights of importance to individuals and healthcare planning.

Balancing immunological benefits and cardiovascular risks of antiretroviral therapy: when is immediate treatment optimal?

We developed a mathematical model to identify the timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation that optimizes patient outcomes as a function of patient CD4 count, age, cardiac mortality risk, sex, and personal preferences. Our goal was to find the conditions that maximize patient quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) in the context of our model. Under the assumption that ART confers disease progression and mortality benefits at any CD4 count, immediate treatment initiation yields the greatest remaining QALE for young patients under most circumstances. The timing of ART initiation depends on the magnitude of benefit from ART at high CD4 counts, the magnitude of increases in cardiac risk, and patients' preferences. If ART reduces HIV progression at high CD4 counts, immediate ART is preferable for most newly infected individuals <35 years even if ART doubles age- and sex-specific cardiac risk.

Lessons learned from the first wave of aging with HIV

In this perspective piece, the authors consider what has been learned and is being studied about aging with HIV in resource-rich settings. The authors argue that although there is much that will be different about aging with HIV in other parts of the globe, there are common themes and approaches to care. These include the observation that most patients have more than one health condition, and the need to assess individual risk, prioritize care, and consider the total burden of disease when considering further testing and treatment.

Alternative antiretroviral monitoring strategies for HIV-infected patients in east Africa: opportunities to save more lives?

Background

Updated World Health Organization guidelines have amplified debate about how resource constraints should impact monitoring strategies for HIV-infected persons on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We estimated the incremental benefit and cost effectiveness of alternative monitoring strategies for east Africans with known HIV infection.

Methods

Using a validated HIV computer simulation based on resource-limited data (USAID and AMPATH) and circumstances (east Africa), we compared alternative monitoring strategies for HIV-infected persons newly started on cART. We evaluated clinical, immunologic and virologic monitoring strategies, including combinations and conditional logic (e.g., only perform virologic testing if immunologic testing is positive). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in units of cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. Costs were measured in 2008 US dollars, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. We compared the ICER of monitoring strategies with those of other resource-constrained decisions, in particular earlier cART initiation (at CD4 counts of 350 cells/mm³ rather than 200 cells/mm³).

Results

Monitoring strategies employing routine CD4 testing without virologic testing never maximized health benefits, regardless of budget or societal willingness to pay for additional health benefits. Monitoring strategies employing virologic testing conditional upon particular CD4 results delivered the most benefit at willingness-to-pay levels similar to the cost of earlier cART initiation (approximately $2600/QALY). Monitoring strategies employing routine virologic testing alone only maximized health benefits at willingness-to-pay levels (> $4400/QALY) that greatly exceeded the ICER of earlier cART initiation.

Conclusions

CD4 testing alone never maximized health benefits regardless of resource limitations. Programmes routinely performing virologic testing but deferring cART initiation may increase health benefits by reallocating monitoring resources towards earlier cART initiation.

Development and validation of decision rules to guide frequency of monitoring CD4 cell count in HIV-1 infection before starting antiretroviral therapy

Background

Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We built up two prediction rules (“Snap-shot rule” for a single sample and “Track-shot rule” for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior ≥5% or <5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200×10⁶/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.

Conclusions/Significance

Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count >650 for a threshold of 200, >900 for 350, or >1150 for 500×10⁶/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Cytomegalovirus retinitis and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome--bench to bedside: LXVII Edward Jackson Memorial Lecture

PURPOSE

To update information on cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis in patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and to integrate information on its pathogenesis and clinical outcomes.

DESIGN

Literature review.

METHODS

Selected articles from the medical literature, particularly large epidemiologic studies, including the Johns Hopkins Cytomegalovirus Retinitis Cohort Study, the Longitudinal Study of the Ocular Complications of AIDS, and the Cytomegalovirus Retinitis and Viral Resistance Study, were reviewed. Clinical information is discussed in light of knowledge on CMV, its pathogenesis, and its interactions with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

RESULTS

Cytomegalovirus uses several mechanisms to evade the immune system and establish latent infection in immunologically normal hosts. With immune deficiency, such as late-stage AIDS, CMV reactivates, is disseminated to the eye, and establishes a productive infection, resulting in retinal necrosis. HIV and CMV potentiate each other: CMV accelerates HIV disease, and CMV retinitis is associated with increased mortality. Randomized clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of treatments for CMV retinitis. Systemically administered treatment for CMV retinitis decreases AIDS mortality. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) effectively suppresses HIV replication, resulting in immune recovery, which, if sufficient, controls retinitis without anti-CMV therapy. Resistant CMV, detected in the blood, correlates with resistant virus in the eye and is associated with worse clinical outcomes, including mortality. Host factors, including host genetics and access to care, play a role in the development of CMV retinitis.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical outcomes of CMV retinitis in patients with AIDS are dependent on characteristics of the virus and host and on HIV-CMV interactions.

Assessing agreement in the timing of treatment initiation determined by repeated measurements of novel versus gold standard technologies with application to the monitoring of CD4 counts in HIV-infected patients

Repeated biomarker measurements are often taken over time to help assess risk of disease progression and guide clinical decision-making, such as whether to start treatment. Unfortunately, gold standard methodologies for measuring biomarkers are often prohibitively expensive or unavailable in resource-limited settings. For example, the costs of monitoring HIV-infected subjects to decide when to start or change treatments are a significant burden for many countries, often exceeding the costs of treatments. A major issue concerns how to evaluate changes in timing of key clinical decisions if a new, simpler or less expensive technology were used instead of the gold standard. We develop a framework for addressing this problem and apply it to the case of monitoring CD4 counts in HIV-infected patients. We focus on the practically important situation in which longitudinal natural history data are available for the gold standard (flow cytometry for CD4 counts), but where the first data expected for a new technology will come from a cross-sectional method comparison study, allowing for estimation of variability and systematic differences (bias) between the two technologies. In a case study, we illustrate how a combination of statistical modeling and simulation study might be used to evaluate the potential impact of using a new technology on treatment starting times in a population of HIV-infected subjects. This gives developers of new CD4 measurement technologies insight into what might constitute acceptable increases in variability and/or bias for novel methods. We finish with a discussion of our findings and some statistical problems that need further work.

Evaluating interventions to improve antiretroviral adherence: how much of an effect is required for favorable value?

OBJECTIVE

Uncertainty about the value of antiretroviral therapy (ARV) adherence interventions may be a barrier to implementation and evaluation. Our objective is to estimate the minimum effectiveness required for ARV adherence interventions to deliver acceptable value.

METHODS

We used a validated HIV computer simulation to estimate the impact of ARV adherence interventions on incremental costs and life expectancy. Across a wide range of intervention costs ($1000-10,000, one time or per year), we estimated the smallest effect size compatible with acceptable value (incremental cost-effective ratio < or =$100,000 per life-year). Effect sizes were measured using relative risk (RR) and absolute risk reduction (ARR), and these metrics were applied to nonadherence and nonadherence risk factors. Costs were estimated from a societal perspective ($2003) discounted at 3%.

RESULTS

To give acceptable value, a one-time $1000 intervention must reduce ARV nonadherence by RR < or = 0.82 (ARR > or = 0.04) for moderately nonadherent patients (20% of ARV doses missed) and RR < or = 0.90 (ARR > or = 0.05) for severely nonadherent patients (50% of ARV doses missed). A one-time $5000 intervention has an unacceptable value regardless of effect size for moderately nonadherent patients, and must reduce ARV nonadherence by RR <or = 0.31 (ARR > or = 0.69) for severely nonadherent patients. Interventions aimed at behavioral risk factors (e.g., unhealthy alcohol use) may confer acceptable value (e.g., if < or = $2000 and effect RR < or = 0.71 [ARR > or = 0.29]).

CONCLUSIONS

ARV adherence interventions with plausible effect sizes may offer favorable value if they cost <$5000 one time or per year. ARV adherence interventions with a favorable value should become more integral components of HIV care.

Optimal time for initiation of antiretroviral therapy in asymptomatic, HIV-infected, treatment-naive adults

BACKGROUND

According to consensus, initiation of therapy is best based on CD4 cell count, a marker of immune status, rather than on viral load, a marker of virologic replication. For patients with advanced symptoms, treatment should be started regardless of CD4 count. However, the point during the course of HIV infection at which antiretroviral therapy (ART) is best initiated in asymptomatic patients remains unclear. Guidelines issued by various agencies provide different initiation recommendations according to resource availability. This can be confusing for clinicians and policy-makers when determining the best time to initiate therapy. Optimizing the initiation of ART is clearly complex and must, therefore, be balanced between individual and broader public health needs.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the evidence for the optimal time to initiate ART in treatment-naive, asymptomatic, HIV-infected adults

SEARCH STRATEGY

We formulated a comprehensive and exhaustive search strategy in an attempt to identify all relevant studies regardless of language or publication status (published, unpublished, in press, and in progress). In August 2009, we searched the following electronic journal and trial databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL. We also searched the electronic conference database of NLM Gateway, individual conference proceedings and prospective trials registers. We contacted researchers and relevant organizations and checked reference lists of all included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomized controlled trials that compared the effect of ART consisting of three drugs initiated early in the disease at high CD4 counts as defined by the trial. Early initiation could be at levels of 201-350, 351-500, or >500 cells/microL, with the comparison group initiating ART at CD4 counts below 200 x 10(6) cells/microL or as defined by the trial.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed study eligibility, extracted data, and graded methodological quality. Data extraction and methodological quality were checked by a third author who resolved differences when these arose. Where clinically meaningful to do so, we meta-analysed dichotomous outcomes using the relative risk (RR) and report the 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

MAIN RESULTS

One completed trial (N = 816) and one sub-group (N = 249) of a larger trial met inclusion criteria. We combined the mortality data for both trials comparing initiating ART at CD4 levels at 350 cells/microL or between 200 and 350 cells/microL with deferring initiation of ART to CD4 levels of 250 cells/microL or 200 cells/microL. There was a statistically significant reduction in death when starting ART at higher CD4 counts. Risk of death was reduced by 74% (RR = 0.26; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.62; P = 0.002). Risk of tuberculosis was reduced by 50% in the groups starting ART early; this was not statistically significant, with the reduction as much as 74% or an increased risk of up to 12% (RR = 0.54; 95% CI: 0.26, 1.12; P = 0.01). Starting ART at enrollment (when participants had CD4 counts of 350 cells/microL) rather than deferring to starting at a CD4 count of 250 cells/microL reduced the risk of disease progression by 70%; this was not statistically significant, with the reduction in risk as much as 97% or an increased risk of up to 185% (RR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.03, 2.85; P = 0.29).One RCT found no statistically significant difference in the number of independent Grade 3 or 4 adverse events occurring in the early and standard ART groups when we conducted an intention-to-treat analysis (RR = 1.72; 95% CI: 0.98, 3.03; P = 0.06). However, when analyzing only participants who actually commenced ART in the deferred group (n = 160), the trial authors report a statistically significant increase in the incidence of zidovudine-related anaemia (8.1%) compared with those in the early initiation group (3.4%) (RR = 0.42; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.88; P = 0.02).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence of moderate quality that initiating ART at CD4 levels higher than 200 or 250 cells/microL reduces mortality rates in asymptomatic, ART-naive, HIV-infected people. Practitioners and policy-makers may consider initiating ART at levels </= 350 cells/microL for patients who present to health services and are diagnosed with HIV early in the infection.

Antiretroviral therapy in the clinic

Antiretroviral therapy in the developed world has resulted in substantial reductions in HIV-associated morbidity and mortality, changing an HIV diagnosis from a likely death sentence into a manageable chronic infection (F. J. Palella, Jr., K. M. Delaney, A. C. Moorman, M. O. Loveless, J. Fuhrer, G. A. Satten, D. J. Aschman, and S. D. Holmberg, N. Engl. J. Med. 338:853-860, 1998). Several million years of life have been saved by effective anti-HIV treatment, although these successes should not obscure the magnitude of the ongoing worldwide HIV epidemic (R. P. Walensky, A. D. Paltiel, E. Losina, L. M. Mercincavage, B. R. Schackman, P. E. Sax, M. C. Weinstein, and K. A. Freedberg, J. Infect. Dis. 194:11-19, 2006). Readers of the Journal of Virology are doubtless aware of the fundamental advances in retrovirology that have made possible the development of potent inhibitors of HIV replication. In this review, we focus on the issues surrounding how these drugs and drug regimens are actually used in clinical settings. Their proper use requires detailed knowledge of the natural history of HIV infection, the pharmacology of the individual drugs, the complexities of drug-drug interactions, and the use of sophisticated molecular tests for monitoring of viral load, immunologic response, and drug resistance.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings

BACKGROUND

The results of international clinical trials that are assessing when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) will not be available for several years.

OBJECTIVE

To inform HIV treatment decisions about the optimal CD4 threshold at which to initiate ART in South Africa while awaiting the results of these trials.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis by using a computer simulation model of HIV disease.

DATA SOURCES

Published data from randomized trials and observational cohorts in South Africa.

TARGET POPULATION

HIV-infected patients in South Africa.

TIME HORIZON

5-year and lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Modified societal.

INTERVENTION

No treatment, ART initiated at a CD4 count less than 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L, and ART initiated at a CD4 count less than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Morbidity, mortality, life expectancy, medical costs, and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

If 10% to 100% of HIV-infected patients are identified and linked to care, a CD4 count threshold for ART initiation of 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L would reduce severe opportunistic diseases by 22,000 to 221,000 and deaths by 25,000 to 253,000 during the next 5 years compared with ART initiation at 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L; cost increases would range from $142 million (10%) to $1.4 billion (100%). Either ART initiation strategy would increase long-term survival by at least 7.9 years, with a mean per-person life expectancy of 3.8 years with no ART and 12.5 years with an initiation threshold of 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L. Compared with an initiation threshold of 0.250 x 10(9) cells/L, a threshold of 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1200 per year of life saved.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Initiating ART at a CD4 count less than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L would remain cost-effective over the next 5 years even if the probability that the trial would demonstrate the superiority of earlier therapy is as low as 17%.

LIMITATION

This model does not consider the possible benefits of initiating ART at a CD4 count greater than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L or of reduced HIV transmission.

CONCLUSION

Earlier initiation of ART in South Africa will probably reduce morbidity and mortality, improve long-term survival, and be cost-effective. While awaiting trial results, treatment guidelines should be liberalized to allow initiation at CD4 counts less than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L, earlier than is currently recommended.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation.

Early antiretroviral therapy: the role of cohorts

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To review the data that contribute to the debate on the optimal time to initiate highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected individuals, with a focus on the information that is available from cohort studies.

RECENT FINDINGS

The findings from cohort studies generally support initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy at CD4 cell counts more than 350 cells/microl. In particular, the findings that death rates among treated HIV-infected individuals are higher than those in the general population, and that the risks of AIDS and serious non-AIDS events are higher in those with lower CD4 cell counts (even when the count remains >350 cells/microl), suggest that earlier initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy may prevent some excess morbidity and mortality. However, given the lack of adjustment for lead-time bias in many analyses, the potential for residual confounding and the possible incomplete ascertainment of relevant outcomes in cohorts, it cannot be concluded that the benefits of highly active antiretroviral therapy when started at higher CD4 cell counts will outweigh the possible detrimental effects.

SUMMARY

Whereas the data from cohort studies currently support initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy at CD4 cell counts more than 350 cells/microl, there is an urgent need for data from randomized trials to inform this decision.

Early treatment of HIV: implications for resource-limited settings

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review the current literature supporting adoption of higher CD4 thresholds for initiation of antiretroviral treatment and survey progress in adoption of early treatment policies in resource-limited settings. We highlight some of the challenges and opportunities implementation of early treatment will bring.

RECENT FINDINGS

The initial success of combination antiretroviral treatment resulted in the recommendation to treat early all individuals with HIV. However, the gradual realization that antiretroviral treatment was associated with toxicity led to a more tempered approach. Recent cohort studies and some clinical trials have shown that delaying treatment is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

SUMMARY

Early treatment is routinely practiced in developed countries. Now, early treatment is being adopted as a strategy in many resource-limited settings. The implications of this policy shift are not known, but we predict early treatment will have important consequences for the health system, the individual, and the community. Whereas these consequences will bring significant challenges, the increased numbers of HIV-infected individuals on treatment will result in many new opportunities - antiretroviral treatment will become less expensive, systems to deliver chronic care will be strengthened, and the policy shift will focus greater attention on pregnant women and children. Finally, some authors postulate that early treatment may impact HIV transmission.

Do benefits of earlier antiretroviral treatment initiation outweigh harms for individuals at risk for poor adherence?

Clinicians may defer antiretroviral treatment for patients with suboptimal adherence. We used a validated computer simulation of HIV disease progression to compare alternative treatment thresholds for patients with suboptimal adherence. Earlier treatment increased life expectancy across a wide adherence range (50%-100% of doses taken). Delaying treatment for patients with suboptimal adherence may not always be appropriate.

Considerations for the antiretroviral management of women in 2008

Clinicians should be familiar with sex-specific considerations when managing antiretroviral (ARV) treatment among women. Pregnancy is a critical influence on when to start treatment and what ARVs should be included in a regimen. Sex, pregnancy and hormonal contraceptive therapies can each influence ARV pharmacokinetic profiles. Women may be prone to have higher serum levels with selected ARV treatments, which may improve potency but also increase the risk for toxicities. Several studies have demonstrated that women do have higher frequencies of selected ARV-associated adverse events when compared with men. Although HIV treatment guidelines for nonpregnant women do not differ from men, clinicians should be aware of the high potential for certain ARV-related toxicities and follow suggestions in order to decrease the risk of side effects.

The therapeutic implications of timely linkage and early retention in HIV care

Following HIV diagnosis, linkage to outpatient treatment, antiretroviral initiation, and longitudinal retention in care represent the foundation for successful treatment. While prior studies have evaluated these processes in isolation, a systematic evaluation of successive steps in the same cohort of patients has not yet been performed. To ensure optimal long-term outcomes, a better understanding of the interplay of these processes is needed. Therefore, a retrospective cohort study of patients initiating outpatient care at the University of Alabama at Birmingham 1917 HIV=AIDS Clinic between January 2000 and December 2005 was undertaken. Multivariable models determined factors associated with: late diagnosis=linkage to care (initial CD4 < 350 cells=mm3), timely antiretroviral initiation, and retention across the first two years of care. Delayed linkage was observed in two-thirds of the overall sample (n = 567) and was associated with older age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.31 per 10 years; 95%confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-1.62) and African American race (OR = 2.45; 95% CI = 1.60-3.74). Attending all clinic visits (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.45; 95% CI = 4.47-9.31) and lower initial CD4 counts led to earlier antiretroviral initiation. Worse retention in the first 2 years was associated with younger age (OR = 0.68 per 10 years;95% CI = 0.56-0.83), higher baseline CD4 count, and substance abuse (OR = 1.78; 95% CI = 1.16-2.73). Interventions to improve timely HIV diagnosis and linkage to care should focus on older patients and African Americans while efforts to improve retention should address younger patients, those with higher baseline CD4 counts, and substance abuse. Missed clinic visits represent an important obstacle to the timely initiation of antiretroviral therapy. These data inform development of interventions to improve linkage and retention in HIV care, an emerging area of growing importance.

Reasons for loss to follow-up among mothers registered in a prevention-of-mother-to-child transmission program in rural Malawi

This study was conducted to identify reasons for a high and progressive loss to follow-up among HIV-positive mothers within a prevention-of-mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program in a rural district hospital in Malawi. Three focus group discussions were conducted among a total of 25 antenatal and post-natal mothers as well as nurse midwives (median age 39 years, range 22-55 years). The main reasons for loss to follow-up included: (1) not being prepared for HIV testing and its implications before the antenatal clinic (ANC) visit; (2) fear of stigma, discrimination, household conflict and even divorce on disclosure of HIV status; (3) lack of support from husbands who do not want to undergo HIV testing; (4) the feeling that one is obliged to rely on artificial feeding, which is associated with social and cultural taboos; (5) long waiting times at the ANC; and (6) inability to afford transport costs related to the long distances to the hospital. This study reveals a number of community- and provider-related operational and cultural barriers hindering the overall acceptability of PMTCT that need to be addressed urgently. Mothers attending antenatal services need to be better informed and supported, at both community and health-provider level.