External validation of postnatal gestational age estimation using newborn metabolic profiles in Matlab, Bangladesh

Post-natal gestational age assessment using targeted metabolites of neonatal heel prick and umbilical cord blood: A GARBH-Ini cohort study from North India

Background

Accurate assessment of gestational age (GA) and identification of preterm birth (PTB) at delivery is essential to guide appropriate post-natal clinical care. Undoubtedly, dating ultrasound sonography (USG) is the gold standard to ascertain GA, but is not accessible to the majority of pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), particularly in rural areas and small secondary care hospitals. Conventional methods of post-natal GA assessment are not reliable at delivery and are further compounded by a lack of trained personnel to conduct them. We aimed to develop a population-specific GA model using integrated clinical and biochemical variables measured at delivery.

Methods

We acquired metabolic profiles on paired neonatal heel prick (nHP) and umbilical cord blood (uCB) dried blood spot (DBS) samples (n = 1278). The master data set consists of 31 predictors from nHP and 24 from uCB after feature selection. These selected predictors including biochemical analytes, birth weight, and placental weight were considered for the development of population-specific GA estimation and birth outcome classification models using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm.

Results

The nHP and uCB full model revealed root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.82-1.18) and of 1.26 (95% CI = 0.88-1.32) to estimate the GA as compared to actual GA, respectively. In addition, these models correctly estimated 87.9 to 92.5% of the infants within ±2 weeks of the actual GA. The classification models also performed as the best fit to discriminate the PTB from term birth (TB) infants with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.84-0.94) for nHP and an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI = 0.85-0.95) for uCB.

Conclusion

The biochemical analytes along with clinical variables in the nHP and uCB data sets provide higher accuracy in predicting GA. These models also performed as the best fit to identify PTB infants at delivery.

Estimating Gestational Age and Prediction of Preterm Birth Using Metabolomics Biomarkers

Preterm birth (PTB) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children aged under 5 years globally, especially in low-resource settings. It remains a challenge in many low-income and middle-income countries to accurately measure the true burden of PTB due to limited availability of accurate measures of gestational age (GA), first trimester ultrasound dating being the gold standard. Metabolomics biomarkers are a promising area of research that could provide tools for both early identification of high-risk pregnancies and for the estimation of GA and preterm status of newborns postnatally.

Accuracy of prenatal and postnatal biomarkers for estimating gestational age: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Knowledge of gestational age (GA) is key in clinical management of individual obstetric patients, and critical to be able to calculate rates of preterm birth and small for GA at a population level. Currently, the gold standard for pregnancy dating is measurement of the fetal crown rump length at 11-14 weeks of gestation. However, this is not possible for women first presenting in later pregnancy, or in settings where routine ultrasound is not available. A reliable, cheap and easy to measure GA-dependent biomarker would provide an important breakthrough in estimating the age of pregnancy. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of prenatal and postnatal biomarkers for estimating gestational age (GA).

Methods

Systematic review prospectively registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020167727) and reported in accordance with the PRISMA-DTA. Medline, Embase, CINAHL, LILACS, and other databases were searched from inception until September 2023 for cohort or cross-sectional studies that reported on the accuracy of prenatal and postnatal biomarkers for estimating GA. In addition, we searched Google Scholar and screened proceedings of relevant conferences and reference lists of identified studies and relevant reviews. There were no language or date restrictions. Pooled coefficients of correlation and root mean square error (RMSE, average deviation in weeks between the GA estimated by the biomarker and that estimated by the gold standard method) were calculated. The risk of bias in each included study was also assessed.

Findings

Thirty-nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria: 20 studies (2,050 women) assessed prenatal biomarkers (placental hormones, metabolomic profiles, proteomics, cell-free RNA transcripts, and exon-level gene expression), and 19 (1,738,652 newborns) assessed postnatal biomarkers (metabolomic profiles, DNA methylation profiles, and fetal haematological components). Among the prenatal biomarkers assessed, human chorionic gonadotrophin measured in maternal serum between 4 and 9 weeks of gestation showed the highest correlation with the reference standard GA, with a pooled coefficient of correlation of 0.88. Among the postnatal biomarkers assessed, metabolomic profiling from newborn blood spots provided the most accurate estimate of GA, with a pooled RMSE of 1.03 weeks across all GAs. It performed best for term infants with a slightly reduced accuracy for preterm or small for GA infants. The pooled RMSEs for metabolomic profiling and DNA methylation profile from cord blood samples were 1.57 and 1.60 weeks, respectively.

Interpretation

We identified no antenatal biomarkers that accurately predict GA over a wide window of pregnancy. Postnatally, metabolomic profiling from newborn blood spot provides an accurate estimate of GA, however, as this is known only after birth it is not useful to guide antenatal care. Further prenatal studies are needed to identify biomarkers that can be used in isolation, as part of a biomarker panel, or in combination with other clinical methods to narrow prediction intervals of GA estimation.

Funding

The research was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-000368). ATP is supported by the Oxford Partnership Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre with funding from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre funding scheme. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the UK National Health Service, the NIHR, the Department of Health, or the Department of Biotechnology. The funders of this study had no role in study design, data collection, analysis or interpretation of the data, in writing the paper or the decision to submit for publication.

Trends and risk of recurrent preterm birth in pregnancy cohorts in rural Bangladesh, 1990-2019

INTRODUCTION

A history of preterm birth reportedly increases the risk of subsequent preterm birth. This association has primarily been studied in high-income countries and not in low-income settings in transition with rapidly descending preterm birth figures. We evaluated the population-based trends of preterm births and recurrent preterm births and the risk of preterm birth recurrence in the second pregnancy based on prospectively studied pregnancy cohorts over three decades in Matlab, Bangladesh.

METHODS

A population-based cohort included 72 160 live births from 1990 to 2019. We calculated preterm birth and recurrent preterm birth trends. We assessed the odds of preterm birth recurrence based on a subsample of 14 567 women with live-born singletons in their first and second pregnancies. We used logistic regression and presented the associations by OR with a 95% CI.

RESULTS

The proportion of preterm births decreased from 25% in 1990 to 13% in 2019. The recurrent preterm births had a similar, falling pattern from 7.4% to 3.1% across the same period, contributing 27% of the total number of preterm births in the population. The odds of second pregnancy preterm birth were doubled (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.96 to 2.43) in women with preterm birth compared with the women with term birth in their first pregnancies, remaining similar over the study period. The lower the gestational age at the first birth, the higher the odds of preterm birth in the subsequent pregnancy (test for trend p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

In this rural Bangladeshi setting, recurrent preterm births contributed a sizeable proportion of the total number of preterm births at the population level. The increased risk of recurrence remained similar across three decades when the total proportion of preterm births was reduced from 25% to 13%.

Validation of gestational age determination from ultrasound or a metabolic gestational age algorithm using exact date of conception in a cohort of newborns conceived using assisted reproduction technologies

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimates of gestational age in pregnancy are important for the provision of optimal care. Although current guidelines generally recommend estimating gestational age via first-trimester ultrasound measurement of crown-rump length, error associated with this method can range from 3 to 8 days of gestation. In pregnancies resulting from assisted reproductive technology, estimated due date can be calculated on the basis of the age of the embryo and the date of embryo transfer, arguably providing the most accurate estimates possible. We have developed and extensively validated statistical models to estimate gestational age postnatally using metabolomic markers from blood samples in combination with clinical and demographic data. These models have shown high accuracy compared with first-trimester ultrasound, the recommended method for estimating gestational age in spontaneous pregnancies. We hypothesized that gestational age derived from date and stage of embryo at transfer in newborns conceived using assisted reproduction therapy would provide the most accurate reference standard possible to evaluate and compare the accuracy of both first-trimester ultrasound and metabolomic model-based gestational dating.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to validate both first-trimester ultrasound dating and postnatal metabolomic gestational age estimation models against gestational age derived from date and stage of embryo at transfer in a cohort of newborns conceived via assisted reproductive technology, both overall and in important subgroups of interest (preterm birth, small for gestational age, and multiple birth).

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of infants born in Ontario, Canada between 2015 and 2017 and captured in the provincial birth registry. Spontaneous conceptions were randomly partitioned into a model derivation sample (80%) and a test sample (20%) for model validation. A cohort of assisted conceptions resulting from fresh embryo transfers was derived to evaluate the accuracy of both ultrasound and model-based gestational dating. Postnatal gestational age estimation models were developed with multivariable linear regression using elastic-net regularization. Gestational age estimates from dating ultrasound and from postnatal metabolomic models were compared with date of embryo transfer reference gestational age in the independent test cohorts. Accuracy was quantified by calculating mean absolute error and the square root of mean squared error.

RESULTS

Our model derivation cohort included 202,300 spontaneous conceptions, and the testing cohorts included 50,735 spontaneous conceptions and 1924 assisted conceptions. In the assisted conception cohort, first-trimester dating ultrasound was accurate to within approximately ±1.5 days compared with date of embryo transfer reference overall (mean absolute error, 0.21 [95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.23]). When compared with gestational age derived from date of embryo transfer, the metabolomic estimation models were accurate to within approximately ±5 days overall (0.79 [0.76-0.81] weeks). When ultrasound was used as the reference in validating the metabolomic model, the mean absolute error was slightly higher overall (0.81 [0.78-0.84] weeks). In general, the accuracy of gestational age estimates derived from ultrasound or metabolomic models was highest in term infants and lower in preterm and small-for-gestational-age newborns.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the accuracy of ultrasound as a gestational age dating tool. They also support the potential utility of metabolic gestational age dating algorithms in settings where ultrasound or other accurate methods of estimating gestational age are not available because of lack of infrastructure or specialized training (eg, low-income countries). However, the accuracy of metabolomic model-based dating was generally lower than that of ultrasound.

Targeted newborn metabolomics: prediction of gestational age from cord blood

OBJECTIVE

Our study sought to determine whether metabolites from a retrospective collection of banked cord blood specimens could accurately estimate gestational age and to validate these findings in cord blood samples from Busia, Uganda.

STUDY DESIGN

Forty-seven metabolites were measured by tandem mass spectrometry or enzymatic assays from 942 banked cord blood samples. Multiple linear regression was performed, and the best model was used to predict gestational age, in weeks, for 150 newborns from Busia, Uganda.

RESULTS

The model including metabolites and birthweight, predicted the gestational ages within 2 weeks for 76.7% of the Ugandan cohort. Importantly, this model estimated the prevalence of preterm birth <34 weeks closer to the actual prevalence (4.67% and 4.00%, respectively) than a model with only birthweight which overestimates the prevalence by 283%.

CONCLUSION

Models that include cord blood metabolites and birth weight appear to offer improvement in gestational age estimation over birth weight alone.

Real world external validation of metabolic gestational age assessment in Kenya

Using data from Ontario Canada, we previously developed machine learning-based algorithms incorporating newborn screening metabolites to estimate gestational age (GA). The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of these algorithms in a population of infants born in Siaya county, Kenya. Cord and heel prick samples were collected from newborns in Kenya and metabolic analysis was carried out by Newborn Screening Ontario in Ottawa, Canada. Postnatal GA estimation models were developed with data from Ontario with multivariable linear regression using ELASTIC NET regularization. Model performance was evaluated by applying the models to the data collected from Kenya and comparing model-derived estimates of GA to reference estimates from early pregnancy ultrasound. Heel prick samples were collected from 1,039 newborns from Kenya. Of these, 8.9% were born preterm and 8.5% were small for GA. Cord blood samples were also collected from 1,012 newborns. In data from heel prick samples, our best-performing model estimated GA within 9.5 days overall of reference GA [mean absolute error (MAE) 1.35 (95% CI 1.27, 1.43)]. In preterm infants and those small for GA, MAE was 2.62 (2.28, 2.99) and 1.81 (1.57, 2.07) weeks, respectively. In data from cord blood, model accuracy slightly decreased overall (MAE 1.44 (95% CI 1.36, 1.53)). Accuracy was not impacted by maternal HIV status and improved when the dating ultrasound occurred between 9 and 13 weeks of gestation, in both heel prick and cord blood data (overall MAE 1.04 (95% CI 0.87, 1.22) and 1.08 (95% CI 0.90, 1.27), respectively). The accuracy of metabolic model based GA estimates in the Kenya cohort was lower compared to our previously published validation studies, however inconsistency in the timing of reference dating ultrasounds appears to have been a contributing factor to diminished model performance.

Machine learning guided postnatal gestational age assessment using new-born screening metabolomic data in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Babies born early and/or small for gestational age in Low and Middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute substantially to global neonatal and infant mortality. Tracking this metric is critical at a population level for informed policy, advocacy, resources allocation and program evaluation and at an individual level for targeted care. Early prenatal ultrasound examination is not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is estimated using new-born assessment, last menstrual period (LMP) recalls and birth weight, which are unreliable. Algorithms in developed settings, using metabolic screen data, provided GA estimates within 1-2 weeks of ultrasonography-based GA. We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms to improve accuracy and applicability of this approach to LMICs settings.

METHODS

This study uses data from AMANHI-ACT, a prospective pregnancy cohorts in Asia and Africa where early pregnancy ultrasonography estimated GA and birth weight are available and metabolite screening data in a subset of 1318 new-borns were also available. We utilized this opportunity to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms. Random Forest Regressor was used where data was randomly split into model-building and model-testing dataset. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate performance. Bootstrap procedures were used to estimate confidence intervals (CI) for RMSE and MAE. For pre-term birth identification ROC analysis with bootstrap and exact estimation of CI for area under curve (AUC) were performed.

RESULTS

Overall model estimated GA had MAE of 5.2 days (95% CI 4.6-6.8), which was similar to performance in SGA, MAE 5.3 days (95% CI 4.6-6.2). GA was correctly estimated to within 1 week for 85.21% (95% CI 72.31-94.65). For preterm birth classification, AUC in ROC analysis was 98.1% (95% CI 96.0-99.0; p < 0.001). This model performed better than Iowa regression, AUC Difference 14.4% (95% CI 5-23.7; p = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning algorithms and models applied to metabolomic gestational age dating offer a ladder of opportunity for providing accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMICs settings. These findings also point to an opportunity for investigation of region-specific models, more focused feasible analyte models, and broad untargeted metabolome investigation.

Using AMANHI-ACT cohorts for external validation of Iowa new-born metabolic profiles based models for postnatal gestational age estimation

BACKGROUND

Globally, 15 million infants are born preterm and another 23.2 million infants are born small for gestational age (SGA). Determining burden of preterm and SGA births, is essential for effective planning, modification of health policies and targeting interventions for reducing these outcomes for which accurate estimation of gestational age (GA) is crucial. Early pregnancy ultrasound measurements, last menstrual period and post-natal neonatal examinations have proven to be not feasible or inaccurate. Proposed algorithms for GA estimation in western populations, based on routine new-born screening, though promising, lack validation in developing country settings. We evaluated the hypothesis that models developed in USA, also predicted GA in cohorts of South Asia (575) and Sub-Saharan Africa (736) with same precision.

METHODS

Dried heel prick blood spots collected 24-72 hours after birth from 1311 new-borns, were analysed for standard metabolic screen. Regression algorithm based, GA estimates were computed from metabolic data and compared to first trimester ultrasound validated, GA estimates (gold standard).

RESULTS

Overall Algorithm (metabolites + birthweight) estimated GA to within an average deviation of 1.5 weeks. The estimated GA was within the gold standard estimate by 1 and 2 weeks for 70.5% and 90.1% new-borns respectively. Inclusion of birthweight in the metabolites model improved discriminatory ability of this method, and showed promise in identifying preterm births. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis estimated an area under curve of 0.86 (conservative bootstrap 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83 to 0.89); P < 0.001) and Youden Index of 0.58 (95% CI = 0.51 to 0.64) with a corresponding sensitivity of 80.7% and specificity of 77.6%.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic gestational age dating offers a novel means for accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMIC settings and help preterm birth surveillance initiatives. Further research should focus on use of machine learning and newer analytic methods broader than conventional metabolic screen analytes, enabling incorporation of region-specific analytes and cord blood metabolic profiles models predicting gestational age accurately.

External validation of machine learning models including newborn metabolomic markers for postnatal gestational age estimation in East and South-East Asian infants

Background: Postnatal gestational age (GA) algorithms derived from newborn metabolic profiles have emerged as a novel method of acquiring population-level preterm birth estimates in low resource settings. To date, model development and validation have been carried out in North American settings. Validation outside of these settings is warranted.  

Methods: This was a retrospective database study using data from newborn screening programs in Canada, the Philippines and China. ELASTICNET machine learning models were developed to estimate GA in a cohort of infants from Canada using sex, birth weight and metabolomic markers from newborn heel prick blood samples. Final models were internally validated in an independent sample of Canadian infants, and externally validated in infant cohorts from the Philippines and China. 

Results: Cohorts included 39,666 infants from Canada, 82,909 from the Philippines and 4,448 from China.  For the full model including sex, birth weight and metabolomic markers, GA estimates were within ±5 days of ultrasound values in the Canadian internal validation (mean absolute error (MAE) 0.71, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.72), and within ±6 days of ultrasound GA in both the Filipino (0.90 (0.90, 0.91)) and Chinese cohorts (0.89 (0.86, 0.92)). Despite the decreased accuracy in external settings, our models incorporating metabolomic markers performed better than the baseline model, which relied on sex and birth weight alone. In preterm and growth-restricted infants, the accuracy of metabolomic models was markedly higher than the baseline model.

Conclusions: Accuracy of metabolic GA algorithms was attenuated when applied in external settings.  Models including metabolomic markers demonstrated higher accuracy than models using sex and birth weight alone. As innovators look to take this work to scale, further investigation of modeling and data normalization techniques will be needed to improve robustness and generalizability of metabolomic GA estimates in low resource settings, where this could have the most clinical utility

Metabolic gestational age assessment in low resource settings: a validation protocol

Preterm birth is the leading global cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Reliable gestational age estimates are useful for quantifying population burdens of preterm birth and informing allocation of resources to address the problem. However, evaluating gestational age in low-resource settings can be challenging, particularly in places where access to ultrasound is limited. Our group has developed an algorithm using newborn screening analyte values derived from dried blood spots from newborns born in Ontario, Canada for estimating gestational age within one to two weeks. The primary objective of this study is to validate a program that derives gestational age estimates from dried blood spot samples (heel-prick or cord blood) collected from health and demographic surveillance sites and population representative health facilities in low-resource settings in Zambia, Kenya, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. We will also pilot the use of an algorithm to identify birth percentiles based on gestational age estimates and weight to identify small for gestational age infants. Once collected from local sites, samples will be tested by the Newborn Screening Ontario laboratory at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) in Ottawa, Canada. Analyte values will be obtained through laboratory analysis for estimation of gestational age as well as screening for other diseases routinely conducted at Ontario's newborn screening program. For select conditions, abnormal screening results will be reported back to the sites in real time to facilitate counseling and future clinical management. We will determine the accuracy of our existing algorithm for estimation of gestational age in these newborn samples. Results from this research hold the potential to create a feasible method to assess gestational age at birth in low- and middle-income countries where reliable estimation may be otherwise unavailable.

Body mass index in early-pregnancy and selected maternal health outcomes: Findings from two cohorts in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Maternal nutrition is one of the most influential factors that affect the health of the mother and her offspring and remains a significant public health challenge globally. There is a lack of studies evaluating the trends of maternal nutrition and its impact on the burden of pregnancy complications from low-income countries, including Bangladesh. We aimed to determine the burden of early-pregnancy nutrition status based on body mass index (BMI), and the associations of nutritional status with pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH), cesarean section (CS) delivery, perineal tear and postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in a rural area in Bangladesh.

METHODS

This prospective study analyzed data from two cohorts: the Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health (MNCH) project carried out from January 2008 to June 2010, and the Preterm and Stillbirth Study, Matlab (PreSSMat) conducted from October 2015 to March 2018. In total, information of 9287 women who gave birth from the two cohorts was available for analysis. Early-pregnancy BMI was categorized into underweight, normal-weight, and overweight groups. The change in the burden of malnutrition between two cohort periods and the associations between women's BMI and maternal health outcomes were presented in odds ratios (ORs) with their 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Between the two cohort periods, the prevalence of underweight decreased from 17.5% to 15.4%, and overweight increased from 10.8% to 20.9%. The risk of being overweight in pregnant women was about two times (OR = 2.19; 95% CI = 1.94-2.46) higher in the PreSSMat cohort than in the MNCH cohort. After multivariate-adjustment for socio-demographic factors, the pooled ORs of PIH, CS delivery, perineal tear, and PPH were 2.41 (95% CI = 1.95-2.99), 2.12 (95% CI = 1.86-2.41), 2.46 (95% CI = 1.54-3.92), and 1.68 (95% CI = 1.12-2.53), respectively, in women with overweight compared to the normal-weight group.

CONCLUSIONS

The results confirmed the existence of a double burden of malnutrition in rural women in Bangladesh. Women with overweight had an increased risk of selected pregnancy complications. The findings call for the adoption of appropriate prenatal counseling and preparedness tailored to women's nutritional status to prevent possible adverse health outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of a gestational age metabolic algorithm for preterm and small-for-gestational-age classification

Background

Preterm birth complications are the leading cause of death among children under 5 years of age, and this imposes a heavy burden on healthcare and social systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where reliable estimates of gestational age may be difficult to obtain. Metabolic analyte data can aid in accurately estimating gestational age. However, important costs are associated with this approach, which are related to the collection and analysis of newborn samples, and its cost-effectiveness has yet to be determined.

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an internationally validated gestational age estimation algorithm based on neonatal blood spot metabolite data in combination with clinical and demographic variables (birthweight, sex, and multiple birth status) compared with a basic algorithm that uses only clinical and demographic variables in classifying infants as preterm or term (using a 37-week dichotomous preterm or term classification) and determining gestational age.

Study Design

The cost per correctly classified preterm infant and per correctly classified small-for-gestational-age infant for the metabolic algorithm vs the basic algorithm were estimated with data from an implementation study in Bangladesh.

Results

Over 1 year, the metabolic algorithm correctly classified an average of 8.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.3–14.7) additional preterm infants and 145.3 (95% confidence interval, 128.0–164.7) additional small-for-gestational-age infants per 1323 infants screened compared with the basic algorithm using only clinical and demographic variables. The incremental annual cost of adopting the metabolic algorithm was $100,031 (95% confidence interval, $86,354–$115,725). If setup costs were included, the cost was $120,496 (95% confidence interval, $106,322–$136,656). Compared with the basic algorithm, the incremental cost per preterm infant correctly classified by the metabolic algorithm is $11,542 ($13,903 with setup), and the incremental cost per small-for-gestational-age infant is $688 ($829 with setup).

Conclusion

This research quantifies the cost per detection of preterm or small-for-gestational-age infant in the implementation of a newborn screening program to aid in improved classification of preterm and, in particular, small-for-gestational-age infants in low- and middle-income countries.

External validation of ELASTIC NET regression models including newborn metabolomic markers for postnatal gestational age estimation in East and South-East Asian infants

Background: Postnatal gestational age (GA) algorithms derived from newborn metabolic profiles have emerged as a novel method of acquiring population-level preterm birth estimates in low resource settings. To date, model development and validation have been carried out in North American settings. Validation outside of these settings is warranted.   Methods: This was a retrospective database study using data from newborn screening programs in Canada, the Philippines and China. ELASTICNET machine learning models were developed to estimate GA in a cohort of infants from Canada using sex, birth weight and metabolomic markers from newborn heel prick blood samples. Final models were internally validated in an independent group of infants, and externally validated in cohorts of infants from the Philippines and China.  Results: Cohorts included 39,666 infants from Canada, 82,909 from the Philippines and 4,448 from China.  For the full model including sex, birth weight and metabolomic markers, GA estimates were within 5 days of ultrasound values in the Canadian internal validation (mean absolute error (MAE) 0.71, 95% CI: 0.71, 0.72), and within 6 days of ultrasound GA in both the Filipino (0.90 (0.90, 0.91)) and Chinese cohorts (0.89 (0.86, 0.92)). Despite the decreased accuracy in external settings, our models incorporating metabolomic markers performed better than the baseline model, which relied on sex and birth weight alone. In preterm and growth-restricted infants, the accuracy of metabolomic models was markedly higher than the baseline model. Conclusions: Accuracy of metabolic GA algorithms was attenuated when applied in external settings.  Models including metabolomic markers demonstrated higher accuracy than models using sex and birth weight alone. As innovators look to take this work to scale, further investigation of modeling and data normalization techniques will be needed to improve robustness and generalizability of metabolomic GA estimates in low resource settings, where this could have the most clinical utility.

Metabolic gestational age assessment in low resource settings: a validation protocol

Preterm birth is the leading global cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Reliable gestational age estimates are useful for quantifying population burdens of preterm birth and informing allocation of resources to address the problem. However, evaluating gestational age in low-resource settings can be challenging, particularly in places where access to ultrasound is limited. Our group has developed an algorithm using newborn screening analyte values derived from dried blood spots from newborns born in Ontario, Canada for estimating gestational age within one to two weeks. The primary objective of this study is to validate a program that derives gestational age estimates from dried blood spot samples (heel-prick or cord blood) collected from health and demographic surveillance sites and population representative health facilities in low-resource settings in Zambia, Kenya, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. We will also pilot the use of an algorithm to identify birth percentiles based on gestational age estimates and weight to identify small for gestational age infants. Once collected from local sites, samples will be tested by the Newborn Screening Ontario laboratory at the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO) in Ottawa, Canada. Analyte values will be obtained through laboratory analysis for estimation of gestational age as well as screening for other diseases routinely conducted at Ontario’s newborn screening program. For select conditions, abnormal screening results will be reported back to the sites in real time to facilitate counseling and future clinical management. We will determine the accuracy of our existing algorithm for estimation of gestational age in these newborn samples. Results from this research hold the potential to create a feasible method to assess gestational age at birth in low- and middle-income countries where reliable estimation may be otherwise unavailable.

Postnatal gestational age estimation via newborn screening analysis: application and potential

Introduction: Preterm birth is a major global health concern, contributing to 35% of all neonatal deaths in 2016. Given the importance of accurately ascertaining estimates of preterm birth and in light of current limitations in postnatal gestational age (GA) estimation, novel methods of estimating GA postnatally in the absence of prenatal ultrasound are needed. Previous work has demonstrated the potential for metabolomics to estimate GA by analyzing data captured through routine newborn screening. Areas covered: Circulating analytes found in newborn blood samples vary by GA. Leveraging newborn screening and demographic data, our group developed an algorithm capable of estimating GA postnatally to within approximately 1 week of ultrasound-validated GA. Since then, we have built on the model by including additional analytes and validating the model's performance through internal and external validation studies, and through implementation of the model internationally. Expert opinion: Currently, using metabolomics to estimate GA postnatally holds considerable promise but is limited by issues of cost-effectiveness and resource access in low-income settings. Future work will focus on enhancing the precision of this approach while prioritizing point-of-care testing that is both accessible and acceptable to individuals in low-resource settings.