Genomic epidemiology of the first two waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada

The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries

Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.

How much should we sequence? An analysis of the Swiss SARS-CoV-2 surveillance effort

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many countries directed substantial resources toward genomic surveillance to detect and track viral variants. There is a debate over how much sequencing effort is necessary in national surveillance programs for SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemic threats. We aimed to investigate the effect of reduced sequencing on surveillance outcomes in a large genomic data set from Switzerland, comprising more than 143k sequences. We employed a uniform downsampling strategy using 100 iterations each to investigate the effects of fewer available sequences on the surveillance outcomes: (i) first detection of variants of concern (VOCs), (ii) speed of introduction of VOCs, (iii) diversity of lineages, (iv) first cluster detection of VOCs, (v) density of active clusters, and (vi) geographic spread of clusters. The impact of downsampling on VOC detection is disparate for the three VOC lineages, but many outcomes including introduction and cluster detection could be recapitulated even with only 35% of the original sequencing effort. The effect on the observed speed of introduction and first detection of clusters was more sensitive to reduced sequencing effort for some VOCs, in particular Omicron and Delta, respectively. A genomic surveillance program needs a balance between societal benefits and costs. While the overall national dynamics of the pandemic could be recapitulated by a reduced sequencing effort, the effect is strongly lineage-dependent-something that is unknown at the time of sequencing-and comes at the cost of accuracy, in particular for tracking the emergence of potential VOCs.IMPORTANCESwitzerland had one of the most comprehensive genomic surveillance systems during the COVID-19 pandemic. Such programs need to strike a balance between societal benefits and program costs. Our study aims to answer the question: How would surveillance outcomes have changed had we sequenced less? We find that some outcomes but also certain viral lineages are more affected than others by sequencing less. However, sequencing to around a third of the original effort still captured many important outcomes for the variants of concern such as their first detection but affected more strongly other measures like the detection of first transmission clusters for some lineages. Our work highlights the importance of setting predefined targets for a national genomic surveillance program based on which sequencing effort should be determined. Additionally, the use of a centralized surveillance platform facilitates aggregating data on a national level for rapid public health responses as well as post-analyses.

phytools 2.0: an updated R ecosystem for phylogenetic comparative methods (and other things)

Phylogenetic comparative methods comprise the general endeavor of using an estimated phylogenetic tree (or set of trees) to make secondary inferences: about trait evolution, diversification dynamics, biogeography, community ecology, and a wide range of other phenomena or processes. Over the past ten years or so, the phytools R package has grown to become an important research tool for phylogenetic comparative analysis. phytools is a diverse contributed R library now consisting of hundreds of different functions covering a variety of methods and purposes in phylogenetic biology. As of the time of writing, phytools included functionality for fitting models of trait evolution, for reconstructing ancestral states, for studying diversification on trees, and for visualizing phylogenies, comparative data, and fitted models, as well numerous other tasks related to phylogenetic biology. Here, I describe some significant features of and recent updates to phytools, while also illustrating several popular workflows of the phytools computational software.

Approaches and challenges to inferring the geographical source of infectious disease outbreaks using genomic data

Genomic data hold increasing potential in the elucidation of transmission dynamics and geographical sources of infectious disease outbreaks. Phylogeographic methods that use epidemiological and genomic data obtained from surveillance enable us to infer the history of spatial transmission that is naturally embedded in the topology of phylogenetic trees as a record of the dispersal of infectious agents between geographical locations. In this Review, we provide an overview of phylogeographic approaches widely used for reconstructing the geographical sources of outbreaks of interest. These approaches can be classified into ancestral trait or state reconstruction and structured population models, with structured population models including popular structured coalescent and birth-death models. We also describe the major challenges associated with sequencing technologies, surveillance strategies, data sharing, and analysis frameworks that became apparent during the generation of large-scale genomic data in recent years, extending beyond inference approaches. Finally, we highlight the role of genomic data in geographical source inference and clarify how this enhances understanding and molecular investigations of outbreak sources.

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of "local" when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

Bloodstream Infections in Intensive Care Unit during Four Consecutive SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic Waves

Critically ill COVID-19 patients are at an increased risk of bloodstream infections (BSIs). We performed a retrospective observational single-center study on COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) to assess the incidence of BSIs in four consecutive periods: 21 February-31 July 2020 (W1), 1 August 2020-31 January 2021 (W2), 1 February-30 September 2021 (W3) and 1 October 2021 and 30 April 2022 (W4). BSIs that occurred 48 h after ICU admission were included. The crude incidence of BSIs was estimated by means of Poisson distribution normalized to 1000 patient-days. A total of 404 critically ill COVID-19 patients were admitted to ICU, of whom 284 (61%) developed at least one episode of BSI with an overall crude incidence of 87 events every 1000 patient-days (95% CI 77-98) without a significant difference in consecutive epidemic periods (p = 0.357). Gram-positive bacteria were the most frequent etiological agents of BSIs, contributing to 74.6% episodes. A progressive decrease in BSIs due to Enterococcus spp. was observed (W1 57.4%, W2 43.7%, W3 35.7% and W4 32.7%; p = 0.004). The incidence of BSIs remained stable during different epidemic periods. Enterococcus spp. prevalence was significantly reduced, although still accounted for one third of BSIs in more recent epidemic periods.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 from Uttar Pradesh, India

The various strains and mutations of SARS-CoV-2 have been tracked using several forms of genomic classification systems. The present study reports high-throughput sequencing and analysis of 99 SARS-CoV-2 specimens from Western Uttar Pradesh using sequences obtained from the GISAID database, followed by phylogeny and clade classification. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Omicron lineages BA-2-like (55.55%) followed by Delta lineage-B.1.617.2 (45.5%) were predominantly circulating in this area Signature substitution at positions S: N501Y, S: D614G, S: T478K, S: K417N, S: E484A, S: P681H, and S: S477N were commonly detected in the Omicron variant-BA-2-like, however S: D614G, S: L452R, S: P681R and S: D950N were confined to Delta variant-B.1.617.2. We have also identified three escape variants in the S gene at codon position 19 (T19I/R), 484 (E484A/Q), and 681 (P681R/H) during the fourth and fifth waves in India. Based on the phylogenetic diversification studies and similar changes in other lineages, our analysis revealed indications of convergent evolution as the virus adjusts to the shifting immunological profile of its human host. To the best of our knowledge, this study is an approach to comprehensively map the circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains from Western Uttar Pradesh using an integrated approach of whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. These findings will be extremely valuable in developing a structured approach toward pandemic preparedness and evidence-based intervention plans in the future.

Phylodynamic of SARS-CoV-2 during the second wave of COVID-19 in Peru

At over 0.6% of the population, Peru has one of the highest SARS-CoV-2 mortality rate in the world. Much effort to sequence genomes has been done in this country since mid-2020. However, an adequate analysis of the dynamics of the variants of concern and interest (VOCIs) is missing. We investigated the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru with a focus on the second wave, which had the greatest case fatality rate. The second wave in Peru was dominated by Lambda and Gamma. Analysis of the origin of Lambda shows that it most likely emerged in Peru before the second wave (June-November, 2020). After its emergence it reached Argentina and Chile from Peru where it was locally transmitted. During the second wave in Peru, we identify the coexistence of two Lambda and three Gamma sublineages. Lambda sublineages emerged in the center of Peru whereas the Gamma sublineages more likely originated in the north-east and mid-east. Importantly, it is observed that the center of Peru played a prominent role in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to other regions within Peru.

A tale of two waves: Delineating diverse genomic and transmission landscapes driving the COVID-19 pandemic in Pune, India

BACKGROUND

Modern response to pandemics, critical for effective public health measures, is shaped by the availability and integration of diverse epidemiological outbreak data. Tracking variants of concern (VOC) is integral to understanding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in space and time, both at the local level and global context. This potentially generates actionable information when integrated with epidemiological outbreak data.

METHODS

A city-wide network of researchers, clinicians, and pathology diagnostic laboratories was formed for genome surveillance of COVID-19 in Pune, India. The genomic landscapes of 10,496 sequenced samples of SARS-CoV-2 driving peaks of infection in Pune between December-2020 to March-2022, were determined. As a modern response to the pandemic, a "band of five" outbreak data analytics approach was used. This integrated the genomic data (Band 1) of the virus through molecular phylogenetics with key outbreak data including sample collection dates and case numbers (Band 2), demographics like age and gender (Band 3-4), and geospatial mapping (Band 5).

RESULTS

The transmission dynamics of VOCs in 10,496 sequenced samples identified B.1.617.2 (Delta) and BA(x) (Omicron formerly known as B.1.1.529) variants as drivers of the second and third peaks of infection in Pune. Spike Protein mutational profiling during pre and post-Omicron VOCs indicated differential rank ordering of high-frequency mutations in specific domains that increased the charge and binding properties of the protein. Time-resolved phylogenetic analysis of Omicron sub-lineages identified a highly divergent BA.1 from Pune in addition to recombinant X lineages, XZ, XQ, and XM.

CONCLUSIONS

The band of five outbreak data analytics approach, which integrates five different types of data, highlights the importance of a strong surveillance system with high-quality meta-data for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in Pune. These findings have important implications for pandemic preparedness and could be critical tools for understanding and responding to future outbreaks.

Distribution and Current State of Molecular Genetic Characterization in Pathogenic Free-Living Amoebae

Free-living amoebae (FLA) are protozoa widely distributed in the environment, found in a great diversity of terrestrial biomes. Some genera of FLA are linked to human infections. The genus Acanthamoeba is currently classified into 23 genotypes (T1-T23), and of these some (T1, T2, T4, T5, T10, T12, and T18) are known to be capable of causing granulomatous amoebic encephalitis (GAE) mainly in immunocompromised patients while other genotypes (T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, T10, T11, T12, and T15) cause Acanthamoeba keratitis mainly in otherwise healthy patients. Meanwhile, Naegleria fowleri is the causative agent of an acute infection called primary amoebic meningoencephalitis (PAM), while Balamuthia mandrillaris, like some Acanthamoeba genotypes, causes GAE, differing from the latter in the description of numerous cases in patients immunocompetent. Finally, other FLA related to the pathologies mentioned above have been reported; Sappinia sp. is responsible for one case of amoebic encephalitis; Vermamoeba vermiformis has been found in cases of ocular damage, and its extraordinary capacity as endocytobiont for microorganisms of public health importance such as Legionella pneumophila, Bacillus anthracis, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, among others. This review addressed issues related to epidemiology, updating their geographic distribution and cases reported in recent years for pathogenic FLA.

Leveraging artificial intelligence to optimize COVID-19 robust spread and vaccination roll-out strategies in Southern Africa

The outbreak of coronavirus in the year 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prompted widespread illness, death, and extended economic devastation worldwide. In response, numerous countries, including Botswana and South Africa, instituted various clinical public health (CPH) strategies to mitigate and control the disease. However, the emergence of variants of concern (VOC), vaccine hesitancy, morbidity, inadequate and inequitable vaccine supply, and ineffective vaccine roll-out strategies caused continuous disruption of essential services. Based on Botswana and South Africa hospitalization and mortality data, we studied the impact of age and gender on disease severity. Comparative analysis was performed between the two countries to establish a vaccination strategy that could complement the existing CPH strategies. To optimize the vaccination roll-out strategy, artificial intelligence was used to identify the population groups in need of insufficient vaccines. We found that COVID-19 was associated with several comorbidities. However, hypertension and diabetes were more severe and common in both countries. The elderly population aged ≥60 years had 70% of major COVID-19 comorbidities; thus, they should be prioritized for vaccination. Moreover, we found that the Botswana and South Africa populations had similar COVID-19 mortality rates. Hence, our findings should be extended to the rest of Southern African countries since the population in this region have similar demographic and disease characteristics.