WEST NILE VIRUS ANTIBODY DECAY RATE IN FREE-RANGING BIRDS

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Multi-Year Comparison of Community- and Species-Level West Nile Virus Antibody Prevalence in Birds from Atlanta, Georgia and Chicago, Illinois, 2005-2016

West Nile virus (WNV) is prevalent in the United States but shows considerable variation in transmission intensity. The purpose of this study was to compare patterns of WNV seroprevalence in avian communities sampled in Atlanta, Georgia and Chicago, Illinois during a 12-year period (Atlanta 2010-2016; Chicago 2005-2012) to reveal regional patterns of zoonotic activity of WNV. WNV antibodies were measured in wild bird sera using ELISA and serum neutralization methods, and seroprevalence among species, year, and location of sampling within each city were compared using binomial-distributed generalized linear mixed-effects models. Seroprevalence was highest in year-round and summer-resident species compared with migrants regardless of region; species explained more variance in seroprevalence within each city. Northern cardinals were the species most likely to test positive for WNV in each city, whereas all other species, on average, tested positive for WNV in proportion to their sample size. Despite similar patterns of seroprevalence among species, overall seroprevalence was higher in Atlanta (13.7%) than in Chicago (5%). Location and year of sampling had minor effects, with location explaining more variation in Atlanta and year explaining more variation in Chicago. Our findings highlight the nature and magnitude of regional differences in WNV urban ecology.

Serologic Investigation on Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus, Kemerovo Virus and Tribeč Virus Infections in Wild Birds

The present study reports on serosurvey on the tick-borne encephalitis virus European subtype (TBEV; genus Flavivirus), and the tick-borne Kemerovo (KEMV) and Tribeč (TRBV) orbivirus (genus Orbivirus) infections in tick-infested and non-infested birds. No virus RNA was detected in the blood clots. Birds were infested mostly by Ixodes ricinus, but Haemaphysalis concinna and I. frontalis were observed too. TBEV, KEMV and TRBV neutralising antibodies (NAb) were detected in the screening microtitration neutralisation test (μVNT). Seropositive samples were further examined in simultaneous μVNT to distinguish TBEV infection from WNV and USUV. KEMV and TRBV infections were also further examined by μVNT against each other. The demonstrated results point to increased TBEV and TRBV seroprevalence in birds over the past several years. This is the first study on KEMV infection in the Slovak bird population, and seropositive juvenile birds suggest its occurrence in a new geographic area. The results indicate the significance of tick infestation rates, seropositivity and specific NAb titre. The reservoir role of birds for TBEV, KEMV and TRBV remains unclear. However, targeted monitoring of birds and vectors is an effective measure of surveillance of arbovirus introduction into new geographic areas.

Assessment of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Dynamics in Greece and Future Implications

The emergence of West Nile Virus lineage 2 (WNV-2) has contributed to multiple major human outbreaks in Greece since 2010. Studies to date investigating biological and environmental factors that contribute to West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission have resulted in complex statistical models. We sought to examine open publicly available data to ascertain if a predictive risk assessment could be employed for WNV-2 in Greece. Based on accessible data, factors such as precipitation, temperature, and range of avian host species did not yield conclusive outcomes. However, by measuring the average rate of temperature change leading up to peak caseloads, we found a predictive characteristic to the timing of outbreaks. Detailed evolutionary studies revealed possible multiple introductions of WNV-2 in Europe, and that Greece acts through a source-sink inversion model, thereby allowing continued reseeding of WNV transmission each year by overwintering the Culex pipiens mosquito vector. Greece has proven an excellent model in WNV surveillance and has demonstrated the importance of rapid reporting for proper preparedness and response to vector-borne diseases.

Influence of herd immunity in the cyclical nature of arboviruses

We review and contrast the evidence for an effect of amplifying host herd immunity on circulation and human exposure to arboviruses. Herd immunity of short-lived West Nile virus avian amplifying hosts appears to play a limited role in levels of enzootic circulation and spillover infections of humans, which are not amplifiers. In contrast, herd immunity of nonhuman primate hosts for enzootic Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses is much stronger and appears to regulate to a large extent the periodicity of sylvatic amplification in Africa. Following the recent Zika and chikungunya pandemics, human herd immunity in the Americas quickly rose to ∼50% in many regions, although seroprevalence remains patchy. Modeling from decades of chikungunya circulation in Asia suggests that this level of herd immunity will suppress for many years major chikungunya and Zika epidemics in the Americas, followed by smaller outbreaks as herd immunity cycles with a periodicity of up to several decades.

Inferring seasonal infection risk at population and regional scales from serology samples

Accurate estimates of seasonal infection risk can be used by animal health officials to predict future disease risk and improve understanding of the mechanisms driving disease dynamics. It can be difficult to estimate seasonal infection risk in wildlife disease systems because surveillance assays typically target antibodies (serosurveillance), which are not necessarily indicative of current infection, and serosurveillance sampling is often opportunistic. Recently developed methods estimate past time of infection from serosurveillance data using quantitative serological assays that indicate the amount of antibodies in a serology sample. However, current methods do not account for common opportunistic and uneven sampling associated with serosurveillance data. We extended the framework of survival analysis to improve estimates of seasonal infection risk from serosurveillance data across population and regional scales. We found that accounting for the right-censored nature of quantitative serology samples greatly improved estimates of seasonal infection risk, even when sampling was uneven in time. Survival analysis can also be used to account for common challenges when estimating infection risk from serology data, such as biases induced by host demography and continually elevated antibodies following infection. The framework developed herein is widely applicable for estimating seasonal infection risk from serosurveillance data in humans, wildlife, and livestock.

West Nile virus host-vector-pathogen interactions in a colonial raptor

Background

Avian host species have different roles in the amplification and maintenance of West Nile virus (WNV), therefore identifying key taxa is vital in understanding WNV epidemics. Here, we present a comprehensive case study conducted on red-footed falcons, where host-vector, vector-virus and host-virus interactions were simultaneously studied to evaluate host species contribution to WNV circulation qualitatively.

Results

Mosquitoes were trapped inside red-footed falcon nest-boxes by a method originally developed for the capture of blackflies and midges. We showed that this approach is also efficient for trapping mosquitoes and that the number of trapped vectors is a function of host attraction. Brood size and nestling age had a positive effect on the number of attracted Culex pipiens individuals while the blood-feeding success rate of both dominant Culex species (Culex pipiens and Culex modestus) markedly decreased after the nestlings reached 14 days of age. Using RT-PCR, we showed that WNV was present in these mosquitoes with 4.2% (CI: 0.9–7.5%) prevalence. We did not detect WNV in any of the nestling blood samples. However, a relatively high seroprevalence (25.4% CI: 18.8–33.2%) was detected with an enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay (ELISA). Using the ELISA OD ratios as a proxy to antibody titers, we showed that older seropositive nestlings have lower antibody levels than their younger conspecifics and that hatching order negatively influences antibody levels in broods with seropositive nestlings.

Conclusions

Red-footed falcons in the studied system are exposed to a local sylvatic WNV circulation, and the risk of infection is higher for younger nestlings. However, the lack of individuals with viremia and the high WNV seroprevalence, indicate that either host has a very short viremic period or that a large percentage of nestlings in the population receive maternal antibodies. This latter assumption is supported by the age and hatching order dependence of antibody levels found for seropositive nestlings. Considering the temporal pattern in mosquito feeding success, maternal immunity may be effective in protecting progeny against WNV infection despite the short antibody half-life measured in various other species. We conclude that red-footed falcons seem to have low WNV host competence and are unlikely to be effective virus reservoirs in the studied region.

Accuracy estimation of an indirect ELISA for the detection of West Nile Virus antibodies in wild birds using a latent class model

West Nile virus (WNV) and Usutu virus (USUV), genus Flavivirus, are members of the Japanese encephalitis virus antigenic complex, and are maintained primarily in an enzootic cycle between mosquitoes and birds. WNV is zoonotic, and poses a threat to public health, especially in relation to blood transfusion. Serosurveillance of wild birds is suitable for early detection of WNV circulation, although concerns remain to be addressed as regards i) the type of test used, whether ELISA, virus neutralization test (VNT), plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT), ii) the reagents (antigens, revealing antibodies), iii) the different bird species involved, and iv) potential cross-reactions with other Flaviviruses, such as USUV. The authors developed an indirect IgG ELISA with pan-avian specificity using EDIII protein as antigen and a monoclonal antibody (mAb 1A3) with broad reactivity for avian IgG. A total of 140 serum samples were collected from juvenile European magpies (Pica pica) in areas where both WNV and USUV were co-circulating. The samples were then tested using this in-house ELISA and VNT in parallel. Estimation of test accuracy was performed using different Bayesian two latent class models. At a cut-off set at an optical density percentage (OD%) of 15, the ELISA showed a posterior median of diagnostic sensitivity (DSe) of 88% (95%PCI: 73-99%) and a diagnostic specificity (DSp) of 86% (95%PCI: 68-99%). At this cut-off, ELISA and VNT (cut-off 1/10) performances were comparable: DSe=91% (95%PCI: 79-99%), and DSp=77% (95%PCI: 59-98%). With the cut-off increased to 30 OD%, the ELISA DSe dropped to 78% (95%PCI: 52-99%), and the DSp rose to 94% (95%PCI: 83-100%). In field conditions, the cut-off that yields the best accuracy for the ELISA appears to correspond to 15 OD%. In areas where other Flaviviruses are circulating, however, it might be appropriate to raise the cut-off to 30 OD% in order to achieve higher specificity and reduce the detection of seropositive birds infected by other Flaviviruses, such as USUV.

Exploring vector-borne infection ecology in multi-host communities: A case study of West Nile virus

In this study, we develop a model to investigate how ecological factors might affect the dynamics of a vector-borne pathogen in a population composed by different hosts which interact with each other. Specifically, we consider the case when different host species compete with each other, as they share the same habitat, and the vector might have different feeding preference, which can also be time dependent. As a prototypical example, we apply our model to study the invasion and spread, during a typical season, of West Nile virus in an ecosystem composed of two competent avian host species and possibly of dead-end host species. We found that competition and vector feeding preferences can profoundly influence pathogen invasion, influencing its probability to start an epidemic, and influencing transmission rates. Finally, when considering time-dependent feeding preferences, as observed in the field, we noted that the virus circulation could be amplified and that the timing of epidemic peaks could be changed. Our work highlights that ecological interactions between hosts can have a profound influence on the dynamics of the pathogen and that, when modeling vector-borne infections, vector feeding behavior should, for this reason, be carefully evaluated.

Overlap in the Seasonal Infection Patterns of Avian Malaria Parasites and West Nile Virus in Vectors and Hosts

Multiple vector-borne pathogens often circulate in the same vector and host communities, and seasonal infection dynamics influence the potential for pathogen interactions. Here, we explore the seasonal infection patterns of avian malaria (Haemosporida) parasites (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) and West Nile virus (WNV) in birds and mosquitoes in suburban Chicago. We show that both pathogens vary seasonally in Culex mosquitoes and avian hosts, but that patterns of covariation are complex. Different putative Plasmodium species varied asynchronously across the season in mosquitoes and birds, suggesting that different forces may govern their transmission. Infections of Culex mosquitoes with Plasmodium parasites were positively associated with WNV infections in pools of individuals aggregated from the same time and site, suggesting that these pathogens respond to common environmental drivers and co-circulate among the same host and vector populations. Future research should focus on these common drivers, and whether these pathogens interact in vectors and hosts.

Field Methods and Sample Collection Techniques for the Surveillance of West Nile Virus in Avian Hosts

Avian hosts play an important role in the spread, maintenance, and amplification of West Nile virus (WNV). Avian susceptibility to WNV varies from species to species thus surveillance efforts can focus both on birds that survive infection and those that succumb. Here we describe methods for the collection and sampling of live birds for WNV antibodies or viremia, and methods for the sampling of dead birds. Target species and study design considerations are discussed.