Tip dating with fossil sites and stratigraphic sequences

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

Geologically calibrated mammalian tree and its correlation with global events, including the emergence of humans

A robust timetree for Mammalia was constructed using the time calibration function of BEAST v1.10.4 and MEGA 11. The analysis involved the application of times of the most recent common ancestors, including a total of 19 mammalian fossil calibration ages following Benton et al. (Palaeontologia Electronica, 2015, 1-106) for their minimum ages. Additionally, fossil calibration ages for Gorilla, Pan, and a geologic event calibration age for otters were incorporated. Using these calibration ages, I constructed a geologically calibrated tree that estimates the age of the Homo and Pan splitting to be 5.69 Ma. The tree carries several significant implications. First, after the initial rifting at 120 Ma, the Atlantic Ocean expanded by over 500 km around Chron 34 (84 Ma), and vicariant speciation between Afrotheria (Africa) and Xenarthra (South America) appears to have commenced around 70 Ma. Additionally, ordinal level differentiations began immediately following the K-Pg boundary (66.0 Ma), supporting previous hypothesis that mammalian radiation rapidly filled ecological niches left vacant by non-avian dinosaurs. I constructed a diagram depicting the relationship between base substitution rate and age using an additional function in BEAST v1.10.4. The diagram reveals an exponential increase in the base substitution rate approaching recent times. This increased base substitution rate during the Neogene period may have contributed to the expansion of biodiversity, including the extensive adaptive radiation that led to the evolution of Homo sapiens. One significant driving factor behind this radiation could be attributed to the emergence and proliferation of C4 grasses since 20 Ma. These grasses have played a role in increasing carbon fixation, reducing atmospheric CO2 concentration, inducing global cooling, and initiating Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles, thereby causing significant climatic changes.

Integrative Phylogenetics: Tools for Palaeontologists to Explore the Tree of Life

The modern era of analytical and quantitative palaeobiology has only just begun, integrating methods such as morphological and molecular phylogenetics and divergence time estimation, as well as phenotypic and molecular rates of evolution. Calibrating the tree of life to geological time is at the nexus of many disparate disciplines, from palaeontology to molecular systematics and from geochronology to comparative genomics. Creating an evolutionary time scale of the major events that shaped biodiversity is key to all of these fields and draws from each of them. Different methodological approaches and data employed in various disciplines have traditionally made collaborative research efforts difficult among these disciplines. However, the development of new methods is bridging the historical gap between fields, providing a holistic perspective on organismal evolutionary history, integrating all of the available evidence from living and fossil species. Because phylogenies with only extant taxa do not contain enough information to either calibrate the tree of life or fully infer macroevolutionary dynamics, phylogenies should preferably include both extant and extinct taxa, which can only be achieved through the inclusion of phenotypic data. This integrative phylogenetic approach provides ample and novel opportunities for evolutionary biologists to benefit from palaeontological data to help establish an evolutionary time scale and to test core macroevolutionary hypotheses about the drivers of biological diversification across various dimensions of organisms.

Early cephalopod evolution clarified through Bayesian phylogenetic inference

BACKGROUND

Despite the excellent fossil record of cephalopods, their early evolution is poorly understood. Different, partly incompatible phylogenetic hypotheses have been proposed in the past, which reflected individual author's opinions on the importance of certain characters but were not based on thorough cladistic analyses. At the same time, methods of phylogenetic inference have undergone substantial improvements. For fossil datasets, which typically only include morphological data, Bayesian inference and in particular the introduction of the fossilized birth-death model have opened new possibilities. Nevertheless, many tree topologies recovered from these new methods reflect large uncertainties, which have led to discussions on how to best summarize the information contained in the posterior set of trees.

RESULTS

We present a large, newly compiled morphological character matrix of Cambrian and Ordovician cephalopods to conduct a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis and resolve existing controversies. Our results recover three major monophyletic groups, which correspond to the previously recognized Endoceratoidea, Multiceratoidea, and Orthoceratoidea, though comprising slightly different taxa. In addition, many Cambrian and Early Ordovician representatives of the Ellesmerocerida and Plectronocerida were recovered near the root. The Ellesmerocerida is para- and polyphyletic, with some of its members recovered among the Multiceratoidea and early Endoceratoidea. These relationships are robust against modifications of the dataset. While our trees initially seem to reflect large uncertainties, these are mainly a consequence of the way clade support is measured. We show that clade posterior probabilities and tree similarity metrics often underestimate congruence between trees, especially if wildcard taxa are involved.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide important insights into the earliest evolution of cephalopods and clarify evolutionary pathways. We provide a classification scheme that is based on a robust phylogenetic analysis. Moreover, we provide some general insights on the application of Bayesian phylogenetic inference on morphological datasets. We support earlier findings that quartet similarity metrics should be preferred over the Robinson-Foulds distance when higher-level phylogenetic relationships are of interest and propose that using a posteriori pruned maximum clade credibility trees help in assessing support for phylogenetic relationships among a set of relevant taxa, because they provide clade support values that better reflect the phylogenetic signal.

Empirical and Methodological Challenges to the Model-Based Inference of Diversification Rates in Extinct Clades

Changes in speciation and extinction rates are key to the dynamics of clade diversification, but attempts to infer them from phylogenies of extant species face challenges. Methods capable of synthesizing information from extant and fossil species have yielded novel insights into diversification rate variation through time, but little is known about their behavior when analyzing entirely extinct clades. Here, we use empirical and simulated data to assess how two popular methods, PyRate and Fossil BAMM, perform in this setting. We inferred the first tip-dated trees for ornithischian dinosaurs, and combined them with fossil occurrence data to test whether the clade underwent an end-Cretaceous decline. We then simulated phylogenies and fossil records under empirical constraints to determine whether macroevolutionary and preservation rates can be teased apart under paleobiologically realistic conditions. We obtained discordant inferences about ornithischian macroevolution including a long-term speciation rate decline (BAMM), mostly flat rates with a steep diversification drop (PyRate) or without one (BAMM), and episodes of implausibly accelerated speciation and extinction (PyRate). Simulations revealed little to no conflation between speciation and preservation, but yielded spuriously correlated speciation and extinction estimates while time-smearing tree-wide shifts (BAMM) or overestimating their number (PyRate). Our results indicate that the small phylogenetic datasets available to vertebrate paleontologists and the assumptions made by current model-based methods combine to yield potentially unreliable inferences about the diversification of extinct clades. We provide guidelines for interpreting the results of the existing approaches in light of their limitations, and suggest how the latter may be mitigated.

A Bayesian approach to dynamic homology of morphological characters and the ancestral phenotype of jawed vertebrates

Phylogenetic analysis of morphological data proceeds from a fixed set of primary homology statements, the character-by-taxon matrix. However, there are cases where multiple conflicting homology statements can be justified from comparative anatomy. The upper jaw bones of placoderms have traditionally been considered homologous to the palatal vomer-dermopalatine series of osteichthyans. The discovery of 'maxillate' placoderms led to the alternative hypothesis that 'core' placoderm jaw bones are premaxillae and maxillae lacking external (facial) laminae. We introduce a BEAST2 package for simultaneous inference of homology and phylogeny, and find strong evidence for the latter hypothesis. Phenetic analysis of reconstructed ancestors suggests that maxillate placoderms are the most plesiomorphic known gnathostomes, and the shared cranial architecture of arthrodire placoderms, maxillate placoderms and osteichthyans is inherited. We suggest that the gnathostome ancestor possessed maxillae and premaxillae with facial and palatal laminae, and that these bones underwent divergent evolutionary trajectories in placoderms and osteichthyans.