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In the last 60 years dramatically increased the content of nitrates in groundwater due to intensive use of nitrogen fertilizers in agriculture. Research in post-Chernobyl period has shown that a sharp increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer depends not only on the level of thyroid dose, but also on the level of nitrates in groundwater.

Major Factors Affecting Incidence of Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Belarus after the Chernobyl Accident: Do Nitrates in Drinking Water Play a Role?

One of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in 1986 was a dramatic increase in incidence of thyroid cancer among those who were aged less than 18 years at the time of the accident. This increase has been directly linked in several analytic epidemiological studies to iodine-131 (¹³¹I) thyroid doses received from the accident. However, there remains limited understanding of factors that modify the ¹³¹I-related risk. Focusing on post-Chernobyl pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus, we reviewed evidence of the effects of radiation, thyroid screening, and iodine deficiency on regional differences in incidence rates of thyroid cancer. We also reviewed current evidence on content of nitrate in groundwater and thyroid cancer risk drawing attention to high levels of nitrates in open well water in several contaminated regions of Belarus, i.e. Gomel and Brest, related to the usage of nitrogen fertilizers. In this hypothesis generating study, based on ecological data and biological plausibility, we suggest that nitrate pollution may modify the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer contributing to regional differences in rates of pediatric thyroid cancer in Belarus. Analytic epidemiological studies designed to evaluate joint effect of nitrate content in groundwater and radiation present a promising avenue of research and may provide useful insights into etiology of thyroid cancer.

A review and test of predictive models for the bioaccumulation of radiostrontium in fish

Empirical relations between the (90)Sr concentration factor (CF) and the calcium concentration in freshwater aquatic systems have previously been determined in studies based on data obtained prior to the Chernobyl accident. The purpose of the present research is to review and compare these models, and to test them against a database of post-Chernobyl measurements from rivers and lakes in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Finland. It was found that two independently developed models, based on pre-Chernobyl empirical data, are in close agreement with each other, and with empirical data. Testing of both models against new data obtained after the Chernobyl accident confirms the models' predictive ability. An investigation of the influence of fish size on (90)Sr accumulation showed no significant relationship, though the data set was somewhat limited.

"Blind" testing of models for predicting the 90Sr activity concentration in river systems using post-Chernobyl monitoring data

Two different models for predicting the time-dependent mobility of (90)Sr in river systems have been evaluated using post-Chernobyl monitoring data for five large Belarusian rivers (Dnieper, Pripyat, Sozh, Besed and Iput) in the period between 1990 and 2004. The results of model predictions are shown to be in good agreement (within a factor of 5) with the measurements of (90)Sr activity concentration in river waters over a long period of time after the accident. This verifies the relatively good accuracy of the generalised input parameters of these models which were derived primarily from measurements of (90)Sr deposited after atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (NWT). For the cases studied here, the simpler AQUASCOPE model performed just as well as the more complex "Global" model which used GIS-based catchment data as an input. The reasons for this are discussed. Exponential decay equations were also curve-fitted to the data for each river to help assess the uncertainties in the predictive models.

The "AQUASCOPE" simplified model for predicting 89,90Sr, 131I, and 134,137Cs in surface waters after a large-scale radioactive fallout

Simplified dynamic models have been developed for predicting the concentrations of radiocesium, radiostrontium, and I in surface waters and freshwater fish following a large-scale radioactive fallout. The models are intended to give averaged estimates for radionuclides in water bodies and in fish for all times after a radioactive fallout event. The models are parameterized using empirical data collected for many lakes and rivers in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, UK, Finland, Italy, The Netherlands, and Germany. These measurements span a long time period after fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing and following the Chernobyl accident. The models thus developed were tested against independent measurements from the Kiev Reservoir and Chernobyl Cooling Pond (Ukraine) and the Sozh River (Belarus) after the Chernobyl accident, from Lake Uruskul (Russia), following the Kyshtym accident in 1957, and from Haweswater Reservoir (UK), following atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. The AQUASCOPE models (implemented in EXCEL spreadsheets) and model documentation are available free of charge from the corresponding author.

In situ measurements of the sub-surface gamma dose from Chernobyl fallout

Methods of estimating external radiation exposure of soil-dwelling organisms are currently of much research and regulatory interest. In this paper, we report the first in situ measurements of the sub-surface gamma dose rate for 137Cs contaminated land that quantify variation in dose rate with depth. Two contrasting sites have been investigated. The first site comprised a mineral type soil with a low percentage of organic matter and the second site chosen was in a peat-bog. The different soil compositions afford different 137Cs mobility and this results in variations in the measured gamma dose-rate with soil depth. For each site the paper reports the measured dose rates, the 137Cs activity depth profile, the 137Cs inventory and a description of the soil-characteristics. It is suggested that these data can be used to produce estimates of the sub-surface gamma dose rate in other sites of 137Cs contamination.

A new method to account for the depth distribution of 137Cs in soils in the calculation of external radiation dose-rate

This work reports a new method for calculating the external dose-rate as a function of height above land that has been contaminated with a surface deposition of (137)Cs. Unlike previous work this method accounts for vertical migration of (137)Cs using the Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE) with appropriate parameters. The results have been successfully verified with field measurements from the (137)Cs contaminated regions within the Republic of Belarus. The method also correctly predicts the observed variation of dose-rate with elevation above the soil surface and it is shown how this method can be used to predict the reduction in surface dose-rate after remediation measures such as deep ploughing have taken place.

Uptake and elimination of radiocaesium in fish and the "size effect."

A number of hypotheses have previously been developed concerning the rates of uptake and elimination of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish. These include the influence of potassium and other water chemical parameters on both uptake and elimination, and the effect of fish size on accumulation. In order to test these hypotheses, we have assembled a data set comprising more than 1,000 measurements of radiocaesium (137Cs) in predatory fish (perch, pike and brown trout) in nine European lakes during the years after Chernobyl. These data have been analysed using simple models for uptake and excretion of 137Cs in fish, showing that: 1. Fish-water concentration factors (CF) were inversely proportional to potassium [K+] concentration of the different lakes, in agreement with previous studies. 2. The uptake rate of 137Cs in fish was negatively correlated with lake [K+], but excretion rate was independent of [K+]. 3. Lower than expected CF values were found in one lake, Iso Valkjärvi, Finland. This is attributed to inhibition of the K+ (and therefore 137Cs) high affinity transport system in aquatic plants and fish by low pH and/or low Ca2+. 4. The inclusion of fish weight as a parameter in our dynamic model significantly improves the ability of the model to fit the observed measurements of 137Cs. 5. The model developed from the above hypotheses was able to fit the data from nine different lakes to within approximately a factor of 3 of the observed values.

Mobility of Chernobyl-derived 137Cs in a peatbog system within the catchment of the Pripyat River, Belarus

The behaviour of Chernobyl-derived 137Cs in a hydrologically isolated bog system in the catchment of the Pripyat River, Belarus was investigated. Measurements were made of 137Cs activities in the solids and pore waters of the bog soils, as well as the variability in activity in water draining from the bog. It was found that the radiocaesium activity of the pore water, and hence the measured distribution coefficient, Kd, was dependent upon the pressure at which the water was removed from the soil. Measured values of Kd were of the order 10(2) l/kg at an extraction pressure of 0.8 MPa, approximately one order of magnitude lower than those measured in a similar system, Devoke Water, in the UK [1]. Results of comparative measurements suggested that this was a result of the different pore water extraction techniques used. The vertical migration of radiocaesium was modelled using a solution of the advection-diffusion equation. Using a mass balance approach, it was estimated that 137Cs was removed from the system at a rate of 0.3% of the catchment inventory per year, approximately 8 years after the Chernobyl accident. It was shown that both vertical migration and removal of 137Cs is best modelled using a Kd based on a measurement of pore water held at low pressure in the soil, approximately 10(3) l/kg. 137Cs activities in soil pore waters and in drainage waters were very strongly related to the aqueous potassium concentration, and both showed concentration minima in drainage water during the spring. It was shown that runoff coefficients of radiocaesium from peat bogs 8 years after the Chernobyl accident were approximately one order of magnitude greater than those from unsaturated soils of higher mineral content.