Radiological Impact of Atmospheric Nuclear Weapons Tests at Mururoa and Fangataufa Atolls to Populations in Oceania, South America and Africa: Comparison with French Polynesia

Objective:

To evaluate the potential radiological impact of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests conducted in 1966-1974 at Mururoa and Fangataufa atolls on populations in Oceania, South America and Africa.

Methods:

Results of measurements of total beta(β)-concentrations in filtered air and ¹³¹I activity concentrations in locally produced cow’s milk in Oceania, South America and Africa after the tests were compared with those in French Polynesia. Radiation doses due to external irradiation and thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake with milk by local populations were also compared.

Results:

Higher total β-concentrations in filtered air, ¹³¹I activity concentrations in locally produced milk and radiation doses to local population were, in general, observed in French Polynesia than in other countries in the southern hemisphere. However, for specific years during the testing period, the radiological impact to South America was found to be similar or slightly higher than that to Tahiti. The resulting thyroid doses in the considered countries were lower than those in French Polynesia with two exceptions: thyroid doses due to ¹³¹I intake with cow’s milk for 1-y old child in 1968 were higher in Peru (0.35 mGy) and in Madagascar (0.30 mGy) than in Tahiti (0.25 mGy). However, the populations outside French Polynesia received doses lower than those from the natural sources of radiation.

Conclusion:

According to the current knowledge in radiation epidemiology, it is very unlikely that nuclear fallout due to French nuclear tests had a measurable radiological and health impact outside French Polynesia.

Association of Radioactive Iodine Treatment With Cancer Mortality in Patients With Hyperthyroidism

IMPORTANCE

Radioactive iodine (RAI) has been used extensively to treat hyperthyroidism since the 1940s. Although widely considered a safe and effective therapy, RAI has been associated with elevated risks of total and site-specific cancer death among patients with hyperthyroidism.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether greater organ- or tissue-absorbed doses from RAI treatment are associated with overall and site-specific cancer mortality in patients with hyperthyroidism.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study is a 24-year extension of the multicenter Cooperative Thyrotoxicosis Therapy Follow-up Study, which has followed up US and UK patients diagnosed and treated for hyperthyroidism for nearly 7 decades, beginning in 1946. Patients were traced using records from the National Death Index, Social Security Administration, and other resources. After exclusions, 18 805 patients who were treated with RAI and had no history of cancer at the time of the first treatment were eligible for the current analysis. Excess relative risks (ERRs) per 100-mGy dose to the organ or tissue were calculated using multivariable-adjusted linear dose-response models and were converted to relative risks (RR = 1 + ERR). The current analyses were conducted from April 28, 2017, to January 30, 2019.

EXPOSURES

Mean total administered activity of sodium iodide I 131 was 375 MBq for patients with Graves disease and 653 MBq for patients with toxic nodular goiter. Mean organ or tissue dose estimates ranged from 20 to 99 mGy (colon or rectum, ovary, uterus, prostate, bladder, and brain/central nervous system), to 100 to 400 mGy (pancreas, kidney, liver, stomach, female breast, lung, oral mucosa, and marrow), to 1.6 Gy (esophagus), and to 130 Gy (thyroid gland).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Site-specific and all solid-cancer mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 18 805 patients were included in the study cohort, and the mean (SD) entry age was 49 (14) years. Most patients were women (14 671 [78.0%]), and most had a Graves disease diagnosis (17 615 [93.7%]). Statistically significant positive associations were observed for all solid cancer mortality (n = 1984; RR at 100-mGy dose to the stomach = 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10; P = .002), including female breast cancer (n = 291; RR at 100-mGy dose to the breast = 1.12; 95% CI, 1.003-1.32; P = .04) and all other solid cancers combined (n = 1693; RR at 100-mGy dose to the stomach = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.10; P = .01). The 100-mGy dose to the stomach and breast corresponded to a mean (SD) administered activity of 243 (35) MBq and 266 (58) MBq in patients with Graves disease. For every 1000 patients with hyperthyroidism receiving typical doses to the stomach (150 to 250 mGy), an estimated lifetime excess of 19 (95% CI, 3-40) to 32 (95% CI, 5-66) solid cancer deaths could occur.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In RAI-treated patients with hyperthyroidism, greater organ-absorbed doses appeared to be modestly positively associated with risk of death from solid cancer, including breast cancer. Additional studies are needed of the risks and advantages of all major treatment options available to patients with hyperthyroidism.

Retrospective Assessment of Exposures to Ionising Radiation: Abstract

Basic dose quantities used in dose reconstruction are defined. The following dose reconstruction methods based on measurements performed for individual persons are reviewed: electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements with tooth enamel, analyses of dicentric chromosomes and chromosome translocations, counting of micronuclei in lymphocytes, somatic-mutation assays, and measurements of radionuclide activities in the human body. Methods based on measurements in environmental media include luminescence methods applied to minerals to determine absorbed doses in ceramics such as bricks or porcelain, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) to determine small quantities of man-made long-lived radionuclides, methods based on existing measurements of absorbed dose rates in air, and modelling based on radionuclide activities in the environment. The application of different methods of dose reconstruction to the same individuals is reviewed for the atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (dosimetry system DS86, EPR with teeth, chromosomal aberrations in lymphocytes, and somatic-mutation assays) and the workers of the Mayak Production Association (occupational film badge dosimetry, EPR with teeth, and fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) with lymphocytes). Examples of reconstruction of absorbed doses in environmental media are Hiroshima and Nagaski (luminescence measurements, AMS and the DS86 system), the Nevada test site (measurements of 137Cs activity in the soil, thermoluminescence of bricks and gamma dose rate in air), and settlements contaminated by the Chernobyl accident (luminescence methods and modelling based on measured 137Cs activity in the ground). The report concludes with an overview the conditions under which the various methods of the dose reconstruction are best applied.

Inventory and vertical distribution of 137Cs, 239+240Pu and 238Pu in soil from Raivavae and Hiva Oa, two French Polynesian islands in the southern hemisphere

Atmospheric nuclear weapons tests carried out by the United States, the former Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France and China between 1945 and 1980 resulted in radioactive fallout over the earth's surface of long-lived radionuclides, such as ¹³⁷Cs, ^239+240Pu and ²³⁸Pu that could be detected more than 50 years after their production. In addition, the burnup in the upper atmosphere of a thermoelectric generator fueled by ²³⁸Pu, SNAP-9A, contributed to the inventory of ²³⁸Pu deposited on the ground. In order to estimate the deposition densities of ¹³⁷Cs, ^239+240Pu and ²³⁸Pu in French Polynesia, we collected undisturbed soil samples up to 30 cm deep at eight sites in two islands (Hiva Oa, 139°W - 10°S and Raivavae, 148°W - 24°S) in 2015-2016. The top 0-10 cm of the soil cores were sliced into five 2-cm layers and the bottom 10-30 cm into four 5-cm layers for gamma spectrometry and alpha spectrometry measurements. We found that more than 50% of the radioactive inventories are still contained within the first 10 cm and that the average vertical migration velocities of ¹³⁷Cs and Pu are less than 0.2 cm y^-1. The average accumulated depositions, deduced from the profile measurements, are 236 ± 11 Bq.m^-2 and 313 ± 39 Bq.m^-2 for ¹³⁷Cs, 12.1 ± 1.5 Bq.m^-2 and 22.1 ± 1.7 Bq.m^-2 for ^239+240Pu, and 1.23 ± 0.46 Bq.m^-2 and 1.58 ± 0.60 Bq.m^-2 for ²³⁸Pu, in Hiva Oa and Raivavae, respectively. The ²³⁸Pu/^239+240Pu ratios are 0.102 ± 0.050 at Hiva Oa and 0.072 ± 0.033 at Raivavae. Both values are higher than the ratio in nuclear weapons tests fallout estimated to be 0.016 in 2016 (Hardy et al., 1973), because of the contribution of ²³⁸Pu fallout from SNAP-9A, which is latitude dependent. The ¹³⁷Cs/^239+240Pu ratios, 19.5 ± 3.2 at Hiva Oa and 14.2 ± 2.8 at Raivavae are in the lower part of the range of values observed in other regions of the world.

Dietary habits during the 2 months following the Chernobyl accident and differentiated thyroid cancer risk in a population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND

The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident occurred in Ukraine on April 26th 1986. In France, the radioactive fallout and thyroid radiation doses were much lower than in highly contaminated areas. However, a number of risk projections have suggested that a small excess in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) might occur in eastern France due to this low-level fallout. In order to investigate this potential impact, a case-control study on DTC risk factors was started in 2005, focusing on cases who were less than 15 years old at the time of the Chernobyl accident. Here, we aim to evaluate the relationship between some specific reports of potentially contaminated food between April and June 1986 - in particular fresh dairy products and leafy vegetables - and DTC risk.

METHODS

After excluding subjects who were not born before the Chernobyl accident, the study included 747 cases of DTC matched with 815 controls. Odds ratios were calculated using conditional logistic regression models and were reported for all participants, for women only, for papillary cancer only, and excluding microcarcinomas.

RESULTS

The DTC risk was slightly higher for participants who had consumed locally produced leafy vegetables. However, this association was not stronger in the more contaminated areas than in the others. Conversely, the reported consumption of fresh dairy products was not statistically associated with DTC risk.

CONCLUSION

Because the increase in DTC risk associated with a higher consumption of locally produced vegetables was not more important in the most contaminated areas, our study lacked power to provide evidence for a strong association between consumption of potentially contaminated food and DTC risk.

Neonatal outcomes following exposure in utero to fallout from Chernobyl

Iodine 131 (I-131), the principal component of nuclear fallout from the Chernobyl accident, concentrates in the thyroid gland and may pose risks to fetal development. To evaluate this, neonatal outcomes following the accident in April of 1986 were investigated in a cohort of 2582 in utero-exposed individuals from northern Ukraine for whom estimates of fetal thyroid I-131 dose were available. We carried out a retrospective review of cohort members' prenatal, delivery and newborn records. The relationships of dose with neonatal anthropometrics and gestational length were modeled via linear regression with adjustment for potentially confounding variables. We found similar, statistically significant dose-dependent reductions in both head circumference (-1.0 cm/Gy, P = 0.005) and chest circumference (-0.9 cm/Gy, P = 0.023), as well as a similar but non-significant reduction in neonatal length (-0.6 cm/Gy, P = 0.169). Gestational length was significantly increased with increasing fetal dose (0.5 wks/Gy, P = 0.007). There was no significant (P > 0.1) effect of fetal dose on birth weight. The observed associations of radioiodine exposure with decreased head and chest circumference are consistent with those observed in the Japanese in utero-exposed atomic bomb survivors.

Are dietary reports in a case-control study on thyroid cancer biased by risk perception of Chernobyl fallout?

BACKGROUND

In retrospective case-control studies performed following nuclear tests or nuclear accidents, individual thyroid radiation dose reconstructions are based on fallout and meteorological data from the residential area, demographic characteristics, and lifestyle as well as dietary information. Collecting the latter is a controversial step, as dietary declarations may be affected by the subjects' beliefs about their risk behavior. This report analyses the potential for such bias in a case-control study performed in eastern France.

METHODS

The study included 765 cases of differentiated thyroid carcinoma matched with 831 controls. Risk perceptions and beliefs of cases and controls were compared using Chi² tests and differences in dietary reports were analyzed using a two-way ANOVA.

RESULTS

In general, atmospheric pollution and living near a nuclear power plant were the two major risks that may influence thyroid cancer occurrence cited by cases and controls. When focusing in particular on the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, cases were more likely to think that the consequences were responsible for thyroid cancer occurrence than controls. Vegetable consumption during the two months after the Chernobyl accident was correlated with the status of subjects, but not to their beliefs. Conversely, consumption of fresh dairy products was not correlated with the status or beliefs of subjects.

CONCLUSION

We found no evidence of systematic bias in dietary reports according to the status or beliefs held by subjects about the link between thyroid cancer occurrence and Chernobyl fallout. As such, these dietary reports may be used in further studies involving individual dosimetric reconstructions.

Clinical characteristics of chronic lymphocytic leukemia occurring in chornobyl cleanup workers

The recently demonstrated radiation-induction of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) raises the question as to whether the amount of radiation exposure influences any of the clinical characteristics of the disease. We evaluated the relationship between bone marrow radiation doses and clinical characteristics and survival of 79 CLL cases diagnosed during 1986-2006 in a cohort of 110 645 male workers who participated in the cleanup work of the Chornobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine in 1986. All diagnoses were confirmed by an independent International Hematology Panel. Patients were followed up to the date of death or end of follow-up on 31 October 2010. The median age at diagnosis was 57 years. Median bone marrow dose was 22.6 milligray (mGy) and was not associated with time between exposure and clinical diagnosis of CLL (latent period), age, peripheral blood lymphocyte count or clinical stage of disease in univariate and multivariate analyses. Latent period was significantly shorter among those older at first exposure, smokers and those with higher frequency of visits to the doctor prior to diagnosis. A significant increase in the risk of death with increasing radiation dose was observed (p = 0.03, hazard ratio = 2.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.11,5.08 comparing those with doses ≥22 mGy to doses <22 mGy). After adjustment for radiation dose, survival of CLL cases was significantly shorter among those with younger age at first exposure, higher peripheral blood lymphocyte count, more advanced clinical stage of disease and older age at diagnosis (all p < 0.05). This is the first study to examine association between bone marrow radiation doses from the Chornobyl accident and clinical manifestations of the CLL in Chornobyl cleanup workers. The current study provides new evidence on the association of radiation dose and younger age at first radiation exposure at Chornobyl with shorter survival after diagnosis. Future studies are necessary with more cases in order to improve the statistical power of these analyses and to determine their significance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

S values for 131I based on the ICRP adult voxel phantoms

To improve the estimates of organ doses from nuclear medicine procedures using (131)I, the authors calculated a comprehensive set of (131)I S values, defined as absorbed doses in target tissues per unit of nuclear transition in source regions, for different source and target combinations. The authors used the latest reference adult male and female voxel phantoms published by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP Publication 110) and the (131)I photon and electron spectra from the ICRP Publication 107 to perform Monte Carlo radiation transport calculations using MCNPX2.7 to compute the S values. For each phantom, the authors simulated 55 source regions with an assumed uniform distribution of (131)I. They computed the S values for 42 target tissues directly, without calculating specific absorbed fractions. From these calculations, the authors derived a comprehensive set of S values for (131)I for 55 source regions and 42 target tissues in the ICRP male and female voxel phantoms. Compared with the stylised phantoms from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) that consist of 22 source regions and 24 target regions, the new data set includes 1662 additional S values corresponding to additional combinations of source-target tissues that are not available in the stylised phantoms. In a comparison of S values derived from the ICRP and ORNL phantoms, the authors found that the S values to the radiosensitive tissues in the ICRP phantoms were 1.1 (median, female) and 1.3 (median, male) times greater than the values based on the ORNL phantoms. However, for several source-target pairs, the difference was up to 10-fold. The new set of S values can be applied prospectively or retrospectively to the calculation of radiation doses in adults internally exposed to (131)I, including nuclear medicine patients treated for thyroid cancer or hyperthyroidism.

Risk of thyroid follicular adenoma among children and adolescents in Belarus exposed to iodine-131 after the Chornobyl accident

Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the (131)I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure.

Shared dosimetry error in epidemiological dose-response analyses

Radiation dose reconstruction systems for large-scale epidemiological studies are sophisticated both in providing estimates of dose and in representing dosimetry uncertainty. For example, a computer program was used by the Hanford Thyroid Disease Study to provide 100 realizations of possible dose to study participants. The variation in realizations reflected the range of possible dose for each cohort member consistent with the data on dose determinates in the cohort. Another example is the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013 which estimates both external and internal exposures and provides multiple realizations of "possible" dose history to workers given dose determinants. This paper takes up the problem of dealing with complex dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of dose in an epidemiologic analysis. In this paper we derive expected scores and the information matrix for a model used widely in radiation epidemiology, namely the linear excess relative risk (ERR) model that allows for a linear dose response (risk in relation to radiation) and distinguishes between modifiers of background rates and of the excess risk due to exposure. We show that treating the mean dose for each individual (calculated by averaging over the realizations) as if it was true dose (ignoring both shared and unshared dosimetry errors) gives asymptotically unbiased estimates (i.e. the score has expectation zero) and valid tests of the null hypothesis that the ERR slope β is zero. Although the score is unbiased the information matrix (and hence the standard errors of the estimate of β) is biased for β≠0 when ignoring errors in dose estimates, and we show how to adjust the information matrix to remove this bias, using the multiple realizations of dose. The use of these methods in the context of several studies including, the Mayak Worker Cohort, and the U.S. Atomic Veterans Study, is discussed.

Analysis of thyroid malignant pathologic findings identified during 3 rounds of screening (1997-2008) of a cohort of children and adolescents from belarus exposed to radioiodines after the Chernobyl accident

BACKGROUND

Recent studies of children and adolescents who were exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine exhibited a significant dose-related increase in the risk of thyroid cancer, but the association of radiation doses with tumor histologic and morphologic features is not clear.

METHODS

A cohort of 11,664 individuals in Belarus who were aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident underwent 3 cycles of thyroid screening during 1997 to 2008. I-131 thyroid doses were estimated from individual thyroid activity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident and from dosimetric questionnaire data. Demographic, clinical, and tumor pathologic characteristics of the patients with thyroid cancer were analyzed using 1-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests or Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, 158 thyroid cancers were identified as a result of screening. The majority of patients had T1a and T1b tumors (93.7%), with many positive regional lymph nodes (N1; 60.6%) but few distant metastases (M1; <1%). Higher I-131 doses were associated with higher frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer (P < .01) and histologic features of cancer aggressiveness, such as lymphatic vessel invasion, intrathyroidal infiltration, and multifocality (all P < .03). Latency was not correlated with radiation dose. Fifty-two patients with self-reported thyroid cancers which were diagnosed before 1997 were younger at the time of the accident and had a higher percentage of solid variant cancers compared with patients who had screening-detected thyroid cancers (all P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

I-131 thyroid radiation doses were associated with a significantly greater frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer and various features of tumor aggressiveness.

Reconstruction of individual thyroid doses to the Ukrainian subjects enrolled in the Chernobyl Tissue Bank

The Chernobyl Tissue Bank (CTB) is an organisation that collects and stores samples of tumoral thyroid tissue obtained from Ukrainian and Russian subjects who were treated surgically for a thyroid cancer and had been exposed to (131)I from the Chernobyl accident. By 2012, the CTB had collected specimens of thyroid tissue from 2267 residents of Ukraine for the purpose of radiation research. Arithmetic mean thyroid doses and uncertainties have been estimated for all but 24 subjects for whom residence at the time of exposure was not found. The subjects have been classified into six groups or sub-groups according to the type of dosimetry-related information that is available for each of them. Excluding the 325 subjects with negligible radiation exposure, the arithmetic mean of the thyroid dose over all subjects is estimated as 0.4 Gy, with individual values ranging from <1 mGy to 13 Gy. The uncertainties in the individual thyroid dose estimates, characterised by the geometric standard deviations of their probability distributions, range from 1.3 to 8.7, with an arithmetic mean of 3.2.

Radiation and the risk of chronic lymphocytic and other leukemias among chornobyl cleanup workers

BACKGROUND

Risks of most types of leukemia from exposure to acute high doses of ionizing radiation are well known, but risks associated with protracted exposures, as well as associations between radiation and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), are not clear.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated relative risks of CLL and non-CLL from protracted exposures to low-dose ionizing radiation.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was conducted in a cohort of 110,645 Ukrainian cleanup workers of the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. Cases of incident leukemia diagnosed in 1986-2006 were confirmed by a panel of expert hematologists/hematopathologists. Controls were matched to cases on place of residence and year of birth. We estimated individual bone marrow radiation doses by the Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation (RADRUE) method. We then used a conditional logistic regression model to estimate excess relative risk of leukemia per gray (ERR/Gy) of radiation dose.

RESULTS

We found a significant linear dose response for all leukemia [137 cases, ERR/Gy = 1.26 (95% CI: 0.03, 3.58]. There were nonsignificant positive dose responses for both CLL and non-CLL (ERR/Gy = 0.76 and 1.87, respectively). In our primary analysis excluding 20 cases with direct in-person interviews < 2 years from start of chemotherapy with an anomalous finding of ERR/Gy = -0.47 (95% CI: < -0.47, 1.02), the ERR/Gy for the remaining 117 cases was 2.38 (95% CI: 0.49, 5.87). For CLL, the ERR/Gy was 2.58 (95% CI: 0.02, 8.43), and for non-CLL, ERR/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI: 0.05, 7.61). Altogether, 16% of leukemia cases (18% of CLL, 15% of non-CLL) were attributed to radiation exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to low doses and to low dose-rates of radiation from post-Chornobyl cleanup work was associated with a significant increase in risk of leukemia, which was statistically consistent with estimates for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Based on the primary analysis, we conclude that CLL and non-CLL are both radiosensitive.

Thyroid cancer in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident (in the framework of the Ukraine-US Thyroid Project)

As a result of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, millions of residents of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were exposed to large doses of radioactive iodine isotopes, mainly I-131. The purpose of the Ukraine-American (UkrAm) and Belarus-American (BelAm) projects are to quantify the risks of thyroid cancer in the framework of a classical cohort study, comprising subjects who were aged under 18 years at the time of the accident, had direct measurements of thyroid I-131 radioactivity taken within two months after the accident, and were residents of three heavily contaminated northern regions of Ukraine (Zhitomir, Kiev, and Chernigov regions). Four two-year screening examination cycles were implemented from 1998 until 2007 to study the risks associated with thyroid cancer due to the iodine exposure caused during the Chernobyl accident. A standardised procedure of clinical examinations included: thyroid palpation, ultrasound examination, blood collection followed by a determination of thyroid hormone levels, urinary iodine content test, and fine-needle aspiration if required. Among the 110 cases of thyroid cancer diagnosed in UkrAm as the result of four screening examinations, 104 cases (94.5%) of papillary carcinomas, five cases (4.6%) of follicular carcinomas, and one case (0.9%) of medullary carcinoma were diagnosed.

Comparison of internal dosimetry factors for three classes of adult computational phantoms with emphasis on I-131 in the thyroid

The S values for 11 major target organs for I-131 in the thyroid were compared for three classes of adult computational human phantoms: stylized, voxel and hybrid phantoms. In addition, we compared specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) with the thyroid as a source region over a broader photon energy range than the x- and gamma-rays of I-131. The S and SAF values were calculated for the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) reference voxel phantoms and the University of Florida (UF) hybrid phantoms by using the Monte Carlo transport method, while the S and SAF values for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) stylized phantoms were obtained from earlier publications. Phantoms in our calculations were for adults of both genders. The 11 target organs and tissues that were selected for the comparison of S values are brain, breast, stomach wall, small intestine wall, colon wall, heart wall, pancreas, salivary glands, thyroid, lungs and active marrow for I-131 and thyroid as a source region. The comparisons showed, in general, an underestimation of S values reported for the stylized phantoms compared to the values based on the ICRP voxel and UF hybrid phantoms and relatively good agreement between the S values obtained for the ICRP and UF phantoms. Substantial differences were observed for some organs between the three types of phantoms. For example, the small intestine wall of ICRP male phantom and heart wall of ICRP female phantom showed up to eightfold and fourfold greater S values, respectively, compared to the reported values for the ORNL phantoms. UF male and female phantoms also showed significant differences compared to the ORNL phantom, 4.0-fold greater for the small intestine wall and 3.3-fold greater for the heart wall. In our method, we directly calculated the S values without using the SAFs as commonly done. Hence, we sought to confirm the differences observed in our S values by comparing the SAFs among the phantoms with the thyroid as a source region for selected target organs--small intestine wall, lungs, pancreas and breast--as well as illustrate differences in energy deposition across the energy range (12 photon energies from 0.01 to 4 MeV). Differences were found in the SAFs between phantoms in a similar manner as the differences observed in S values but with larger differences at lower photon energies. To investigate the differences observed in the S and SAF values, the chord length distributions (CLDs) were computed for the selected source--target pairs and compared across the phantoms. As demonstrated by the CLDs, we found that the differences between phantoms in those factors used in internal dosimetry were governed to a significant degree by inter-organ distances which are a function of organ shape as well as organ location.

Emergency Optically Stimulated Luminescence Dosimetry Using Different Materials

Several materials were tested as possible individual emergency dosimeters using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) as means to assess the exposure. Materials investigated included human nails, business cards and plastic buttons. The OSL properties of these materials were studied in comparison with those of teeth. Most samples revealed OSL signals only after exposure to ionizing radiation; some samples of business cards, however, displayed a strong initial "native" signal (i.e. existing in the samples prior to irradiation). The sensitivity (minimum measurable dose) of the samples was found to vary significantly from sample to sample of the same material and was in the range from several tens of mGy to a few dozens of Gy. The dose response curves were linear for doses below 10 Gy. Fading of the OSL signals was estimated for different lenghts of times and found to be ~95%, 45%, 30% and 15% for samples of teeth, business cards, buttons and nails, respectively, following storage at room temperature in the dark for a period of 3 weeks after exposure. For samples stored under routine laboratory light, fading was much faster and the radiation-induced signals almost disappeared after a few hours of such illumination. It was concluded that the tested materials could be used in triage situations to detect and estimate the possible overexposure of individuals if the measurements can be performed soon enough after exposure.

Emergency Dose Estimation Using Optically Stimulated Luminescence from Human Tooth Enamel

Human teeth were studied for potential use as emergency Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dosimeters. By using multiple-teeth samples in combination with a custom-built sensitive OSL reader, (60)Co-equivalent doses below 0.64 Gy were measured immediately after exposure with the lowest value being 27 mGy for the most sensitive sample. The variability of OSL sensitivity, from individual to individual using multiple-teeth samples, was determined to be 53%. X-ray and beta exposure were found to produce OSL curves with the same shape that differed from those due to ultraviolet (UV) exposure; as a result, correlation was observed between OSL signals after X-ray and beta exposure and was absent if compared to OSL signals after UV exposure. Fading of the OSL signal was "typical" for most teeth with just a few of incisors showing atypical behavior. Typical fading dependences were described by a bi-exponential decay function with "fast" (decay time around of 12 min) and "slow" (decay time about 14 h) components. OSL detection limits, based on the techniques developed to-date, were found to be satisfactory from the point-of-view of medical triage requirements if conducted within 24 hours of the exposure.

Estimation of the thyroid doses for ukrainian children exposed in utero after the chernobyl accident

This paper describes methods for estimating thyroid doses to Ukrainian children who were subjects of an epidemiological study of prenatal exposure and presents the calculated doses. Participants were 2,582 mother-child pairs in which the mother had been pregnant at the time of the Chernobyl accident on 26 April 1986 or in the 2-3 mo following when (131)I in fallout was still present. Among these, 1,494 were categorized as "exposed;" a comparison group of 1,088 was considered "relatively unexposed." Individual in utero thyroid dose estimates were found to range from less than 1 mGy to 3,200 mGy, with an arithmetic mean of 72 mGy. Thyroid doses varied primarily according to stage of pregnancy at the time of exposure and level of radioactive contamination at the location of residence. There was a marked difference between the dose distributions of the exposed and comparison groups, although nine children in the latter group had calculated doses in the range 100-200 mGy. For those children who were born after the accident and prior to the end of June 1986, postnatal thyroid doses were also estimated. About 7.7% (200) of the subjects received thyroid doses after birth that were at least 10% of their cumulative doses.

Organ doses for reference adult male and female undergoing computed tomography estimated by Monte Carlo simulations

PURPOSE

To develop a computed tomography (CT) organ dose estimation method designed to readily provide organ doses in a reference adult male and female for different scan ranges to investigate the degree to which existing commercial programs can reasonably match organ doses defined in these more anatomically realistic adult hybrid phantoms

METHODS

The x-ray fan beam in the SOMATOM Sensation 16 multidetector CT scanner was simulated within the Monte Carlo radiation transport code MCNPX2.6. The simulated CT scanner model was validated through comparison with experimentally measured lateral free-in-air dose profiles and computed tomography dose index (CTDI) values. The reference adult male and female hybrid phantoms were coupled with the established CT scanner model following arm removal to simulate clinical head and other body region scans. A set of organ dose matrices were calculated for a series of consecutive axial scans ranging from the top of the head to the bottom of the phantoms with a beam thickness of 10 mm and the tube potentials of 80, 100, and 120 kVp. The organ doses for head, chest, and abdomen/pelvis examinations were calculated based on the organ dose matrices and compared to those obtained from two commercial programs, CT-EXPO and CTDOSIMETRY. Organ dose calculations were repeated for an adult stylized phantom by using the same simulation method used for the adult hybrid phantom.

RESULTS

Comparisons of both lateral free-in-air dose profiles and CTDI values through experimental measurement with the Monte Carlo simulations showed good agreement to within 9%. Organ doses for head, chest, and abdomen/pelvis scans reported in the commercial programs exceeded those from the Monte Carlo calculations in both the hybrid and stylized phantoms in this study, sometimes by orders of magnitude.

CONCLUSIONS

The organ dose estimation method and dose matrices established in this study readily provides organ doses for a reference adult male and female for different CT scan ranges and technical parameters. Organ doses from existing commercial programs do not reasonably match organ doses calculated for the hybrid phantoms due to differences in phantom anatomy, as well as differences in organ dose scaling parameters. The organ dose matrices developed in this study will be extended to cover different technical parameters, CT scanner models, and various age groups.

Thyroid mass in children and adolescents living in the most exposed areas to Chernobyl fallout in Belarus

This paper aims to determine the thyroid volumes in children and teenagers living in Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts, which are the areas of Belarus that were most affected by the Chernobyl accident. Results of thyroid volume measurements performed in 1991-1996 by the Sasakawa Memorial Health Foundation were used to evaluate the variation by age of the thyroid volumes for girls and boys aged from 5 to 16 y. Thyroid volumes for age groups without measurements were also estimated. For a given age and gender, the differences between children from Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts do not exceed 12 %, which is relatively small when the variability of individual values is considered. For children of a given age, the individual values show a variability characterised by geometric standard deviation (GSD) of 1.25-1.4. Values of thyroid mass that were derived from the measured thyroid volumes are being used within the framework of the on-going Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chernobyl accident to estimate with more accuracy the thyroid doses that were received by the cohort members.

Prevalence of hyperthyroidism after exposure during childhood or adolescence to radioiodines from the chornobyl nuclear accident: dose-response results from the Ukrainian-American Cohort Study

Relatively few data are available on the prevalence of hyperthyroidism (TSH concentrations of <0.3 mIU/liter, with normal or elevated concentrations of free T4) in individuals exposed to radioiodines at low levels. The accident at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) nuclear plant in Ukraine on April 26, 1986 exposed large numbers of residents to radioactive fallout, principally to iodine-131 ((131)I) (mean and median doses  =  0.6 Gy and 0.2 Gy). We investigated the relationship between (131)I and prevalent hyperthyroidism among 11,853 individuals exposed as children or adolescents in Ukraine who underwent an in-depth, standardized thyroid gland screening examination 12-14 years later. Radioactivity measurements taken shortly after the accident were available for all subjects and were used to estimate individual thyroid doses. We identified 76 cases of hyperthyroidism (11 overt, 65 subclinical). Using logistic regression, we tested a variety of continuous risk models and conducted categorical analyses for all subjects combined and for females (53 cases, n  =  5,767) and males (23 cases, n  =  6,086) separately but found no convincing evidence of a dose-response relationship between (131)I and hyperthyroidism. There was some suggestion of elevated risk among females in an analysis based on a dichotomous dose model with a threshold of 0.5 Gy chosen empirically (OR  =  1.86, P  =  0.06), but the statistical significance level was reduced (P  =  0.13) in a formal analysis with an estimated threshold. In summary, after a thorough exploration of the data, we found no statistically significant dose-response relationship between individual (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hyperthyroidism.

Thyroid cancer following nuclear tests in French Polynesia

BACKGROUND

Between 1966 and 1974, France conducted 41 atmospheric nuclear tests in Polynesia, but their potential health effects have not previously been investigated.

METHODS

In a case-control study, we compared the radiation exposure of almost all the French Polynesians diagnosed with differentiated thyroid carcinoma between 1981 and 2003 (n=229) to the exposure of 373 French Polynesian control individuals without cancer from the general population. Radiation exposures were estimated using measurements after the nuclear tests, age at time of each test, residential and dietary information.

RESULTS

The average thyroid dose before 15 years of age was about 1.8 mGy, and 5% of the cases and 3% of the controls received a dose above 10 mGy. Despite this low level of dose, and after adjusting for ethnic group, level of education, body surface area, family history of thyroid cancer and number of pregnancies for women, we observed an increasing risk (P=0.04) of thyroid cancer with increasing thyroid dose received before age of 15 years, which remained after excluding non-aggressive differentiated thyroid micro-carcinomas. This increase of risk per unit of thyroid radiation dose was higher (P=0.03) in women who later experienced four or more pregnancies than among other women.

CONCLUSION

The risk estimate is low, but is based on limited exposure data. The release of information on exposure, currently classified, would greatly improve the reliability of the risk estimation.

Projected lifetime cancer risks from exposure to regional radioactive fallout in the Marshall Islands

Radioactive fallout from nuclear test detonations during 1946-1958 at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls in the Marshall Islands (MI) exposed populations living elsewhere in the MI archipelago. A comprehensive analysis, presented in seven companion papers, has produced estimates of tissue-specific radiation absorbed dose to MI residents at all historically inhabited atolls from internal (ingested) and external irradiation resulting from exposure to radioactive fallout, by calendar year, and by age of the population at time of exposure. The present report deals, for the first time, with the implications of these doses for cancer risk among exposed members of the MI population. Radiation doses differed by geographic location and year of birth, and radiation-related cancer risk depends upon age at exposure and age at observation for risk. Using dose-response models based on committee reports published by the National Research Council and the National Institutes of Health, we project that, during the lifetimes of members of the MI population potentially exposed to ionizing radiation from weapons test fallout deposited during the testing period (1948-1958) and from residual radioactive sources during the subsequent 12 y (1959-1970), perhaps 1.6% (with 90% uncertainty range 0.4% to 3.4%) of all cancers might be attributable to fallout-related radiation exposures. By sub-population, the projected proportion of cancers attributable to radiation from fallout from all nuclear tests conducted in the Marshall Islands is 55% (28% to 69%) among 82 persons exposed in 1954 on Rongelap and Ailinginae, 10% (2.4% to 22%) for 157 persons exposed on Utrik, and 2.2% (0.5% to 4.8%) and 0.8% (0.2% to 1.8%), respectively, for the much larger populations exposed in mid-latitude locations including Kwajalein and in southern locations including Majuro. By cancer type, point estimates of attributable risk varied, by location, between 12% and 95% for thyroid cancer, between 2% and 78% for leukemia, and between 0.8% and 55% for all cancers combined. The largest projected risks pertain to the Rongelap Island community and the lowest risks pertain to the populations resident on the southern-most atolls. While the projected cancer risks are smaller than those estimated by the National Cancer Institute in a more simplistic analysis conducted in 2004, these estimates of cancer risk are the best available as they are based on the most detailed dose reconstruction to date and comprehensively include populations at all locations and dose contributions from all nuclear tests.

Thyroid cancer rates and 131I doses from Nevada atmospheric nuclear bomb tests: an update

Exposure to radioactive iodine ((131)I) from atmospheric nuclear tests conducted in Nevada in the 1950s may have increased thyroid cancer risks. To investigate the long-term effects of this exposure, we analyzed data on thyroid cancer incidence (18,545 cases) from eight Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) tumor registries for the period 1973-2004. Excess relative risks (ERR) per gray (Gy) for exposure received before age 15 were estimated by relating age-, birth year-, sex- and county-specific thyroid cancer rates to estimates of cumulative dose to the thyroid that take age into account. The estimated ERR per Gy for dose received before 1 year of age was 1.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.5-3.2]. There was no evidence that this estimate declined with follow-up time or that risk increased with dose received at ages 1-15. These results confirm earlier findings based on less extensive data for the period 1973-1994. The lack of a dose response for those exposed at ages 1-15 is inconsistent with studies of children exposed to external radiation or (131)I from the Chernobyl accident, and results need to be interpreted in light of limitations and biases inherent in ecological studies, including the error in doses and case ascertainment resulting from migration. Nevertheless, the study adds support for an increased risk of thyroid cancer due to fallout, although the data are inadequate to quantify it.

UV effects in tooth enamel and their possible application in EPR dosimetry with front teeth

The effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation on ionizing radiation biodosimetry were studied in human tooth enamel samples using the technique of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) in X-band. For samples in the form of grains, UV-specific EPR spectra were spectrally distinct from those produced by exposure to gamma radiation. From larger enamel samples, the UV penetration depth was determined to be in the 60-120 mum range. The difference in EPR spectra from UV exposure and from exposure to gamma radiation samples was found to be a useful marker of UV equivalent dose (defined as the apparent contribution to the gamma dose in mGy that results from UV radiation absorption) in tooth enamel. This concept was preliminarily tested on front teeth from inhabitants of the region of the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site (Kazakhstan) who might have received some exposure to gamma radiation from the nuclear tests conducted there as well as from normal UV radiation in sunlight. The technique developed here to quantify and subtract the UV contribution to the measured tooth is currently limited to cumulative dose measurements with a component of UV equivalent dose equal to or greater than 300 mGy.

Subclinical hypothyroidism after radioiodine exposure: Ukrainian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident (1998-2000)

BACKGROUND

Hypothyroidism is the most common thyroid abnormality in patients treated with high doses of iodine-131 (131I). Data on risk of hypothyroidism from low to moderate 131I thyroid doses are limited and inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted to quantify the risk of hypothyroidism prevalence in relation to 131I doses received because of the Chornobyl accident.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional (1998-2000) screening study of thyroid diseases in a cohort of 11,853 individuals < 18 years of age at the time of the accident, with individual thyroid radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months of the accident. We measured thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine, and antibodies to thyroid peroxidase (ATPO) in serum.

RESULTS

Mean age at examination of the analysis cohort was 21.6 years (range, 12.2-32.5 years), with 49% females. Mean 131I thyroid dose was 0.79 Gy (range, 0-40.7 Gy). There were 719 cases with hypothyroidism (TSH > 4 mIU/L), including 14 with overt hypothyroidism. We found a significant, small association between (131)I thyroid doses and prevalent hypothyroidism, with the excess odds ratio (EOR) per gray of 0.10 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.21). EOR per gray was higher in individuals with ATPO < or = 60 U/mL compared with individuals with ATPO > 60 U/mL (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to find a significant relationship between prevalence of hypothyroidism and individual (131)I thyroid doses due to environmental exposure. The radiation increase in hypothyroidism was small (10% per Gy) and limited largely to subclinical hypothyroidism. Prospective data are needed to evaluate the dynamics of radiation-related hypothyroidism and clarify the role of antithyroid antibodies.

A screening study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases among individuals exposed in utero to iodine-131 from Chernobyl fallout

BACKGROUND

Like stable iodine, radioiodines concentrate in the thyroid gland, increasing thyroid cancer risk in exposed children. Data on exposure to the embryonic/fetal thyroid are rare, raising questions about use of iodine 131 (I-131) in pregnant women. We present here estimated risks of thyroid disease from exposure in utero to I-131 fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional thyroid screening study (palpation, ultrasound, thyroid hormones, and, if indicated, fine needle aspiration) from 2003 to 2006. Participants were 2582 mother-child pairs from Ukraine in which the mother had been pregnant at the time of the accident on April 26, 1986, or 2 months after the time during which I-131 fallout was still present (1494 from contaminated areas, 1088 in the comparison group). Individual cumulative in utero thyroid dose estimates were derived from estimated I-131 activity in the mother's thyroid (mean 72 mGy; range 0-3230 mGy).

RESULTS

There were seven cases of thyroid carcinoma and one case of Hurthle cell neoplasm identified as a result of the screening. Whereas the estimated excess odds ratio per gray for thyroid carcinoma was elevated (excess odds ratio per gray 11.66), it was not statistically significant (P = 0.12). No radiation risks were identified for other thyroid diseases.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that in utero exposure to radioiodines may have increased the risk of thyroid carcinoma approximately 20 yr after the Chernobyl accident, supporting a conservative approach to medical uses of I-131 during pregnancy.

Thyroid nodules, polymorphic variants in DNA repair and RET-related genes, and interaction with ionizing radiation exposure from nuclear tests in Kazakhstan

Risk factors for thyroid cancer remain largely unknown except for ionizing radiation exposure during childhood and a history of benign thyroid nodules. Because thyroid nodules are more common than thyroid cancers and are associated with thyroid cancer risk, we evaluated several polymorphisms potentially relevant to thyroid tumors and assessed interaction with ionizing radiation exposure to the thyroid gland. Thyroid nodules were detected in 1998 by ultrasound screening of 2997 persons who lived near the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site in Kazakhstan when they were children (1949-1962). Cases with thyroid nodules (n = 907) were frequency matched (1:1) to those without nodules by ethnicity (Kazakh or Russian), gender and age at screening. Thyroid gland radiation doses were estimated from fallout deposition patterns, residence history and diet. We analyzed 23 polymorphisms in 13 genes and assessed interaction with ionizing radiation exposure using likelihood ratio tests (LRT). Elevated thyroid nodule risks were associated with the minor alleles of RET S836S (rs1800862, P = 0.03) and GFRA1 -193C>G (rs not assigned, P = 0.05) and decreased risk with XRCC1 R194W (rs1799782, P trend = 0.03) and TGFB1 T263I (rs1800472, P = 0.009). Similar patterns of association were observed for a small number of papillary thyroid cancers (n = 25). Ionizing radiation exposure to the thyroid gland was associated with significantly increased risk of thyroid nodules (age and gender adjusted excess odds ratio/Gy = 0.30, 95% CI 0.05-0.56), with evidence for interaction by genotype found for XRCC1 R194W (LRT P value = 0.02). Polymorphisms in RET signaling, DNA repair and proliferation genes may be related to risk of thyroid nodules, consistent with some previous reports on thyroid cancer. Borderline support for gene-radiation interaction was found for a variant in XRCC1, a key base excision repair protein. Other pathways such as genes in double-strand break repair, apoptosis and genes related to proliferation should also be pursued.

Monte Carlo modeling of beta-radiometer device used to measure milk contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident

This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the beta-radiometer device with Geiger-Mueller detector used in Belarus and Russia to measure the radioactive contamination of milk after the Chernobyl accident. This type of detector, which is not energy selective, measured the total beta-activity of the radionuclide mix. A mathematical model of the beta-radiometer device, namely DP-100, was developed, and the calibration factors for the different radionuclides that might contribute to the milk contamination were calculated. The estimated calibration factors for (131)I, (137)Cs, (134)Cs, (90)Sr, (144)Ce, and (106)Ru reasonably agree with calibration factors determined experimentally. The calculated calibration factors for (132)Te, (132)I, (133)I, (136)Cs, (89)Sr, (103)Ru, (140)Ba, (140)La, and (141)Ce had not been previously determined experimentally. The obtained results allow to derive the activity of specific radionuclides, in particular (131)I, from the results of the total beta-activity measurements in milk. Results of this study are important for the purposes of retrospective dosimetry that uses measurements of radioactivity in environmental samples performed with beta-radiometer devices.

The Ukrainian-American study of leukemia and related disorders among Chornobyl cleanup workers from Ukraine: III. Radiation risks

Leukemia is one of the cancers most susceptible to induction by ionizing radiation, but the effects of lower doses delivered over time have not been quantified adequately. After the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) accident in Ukraine in April 1986, several hundred thousand workers who were involved in cleaning up the site and its surroundings received fractionated exposure, primarily from external gamma radiation. To increase our understanding of the role of protracted low-dose radiation exposure in the etiology of leukemia, we conducted a nested case-control study of leukemia in a cohort of cleanup workers identified from the Chornobyl State Registry of Ukraine. The analysis is based on 71 cases of histologically confirmed leukemia diagnosed in 1986-2000 and 501 age- and residence-matched controls selected from the same cohort. Study subjects or their proxies were interviewed about their cleanup activities and other relevant factors. Individual bone marrow radiation doses were estimated by the RADRUE dose reconstruction method (mean dose = 76.4 mGy, SD = 213.4). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate leukemia risks. The excess relative risk (ERR) of total leukemia was 3.44 per Gy [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-9.78, P < 0.01]. The dose response was linear and did not differ significantly by calendar period of first work in the 30-km Chornobyl zone, duration or type of work. We found a similar dose-response relationship for chronic and non-chronic lymphocytic leukemia [ERR = 4.09 per Gy (95% CI < 0-14.41) and 2.73 per Gy (95% CI < 0-13.50), respectively]. To further clarify these issues, we are extending the case-control study to ascertain cases for another 6 years (2001-2006).

The Ukrainian-American study of leukemia and related disorders among Chornobyl cleanup workers from Ukraine: I. Study methods

There are relatively few data on the risk of leukemia among those exposed to external radiation during cleanup operations after the Chornobyl nuclear accident, and results have not been consistent. To investigate this further, we assembled a cohort of 110,645 male cleanup workers from Ukraine and identified cases of leukemia occurring during the period 1986 to 2000. Detailed interviews were conducted and individual bone marrow doses estimated using a new time-and-motion method known as RADRUE described in companion paper II. For the initial analyses we used a nested case-control approach with a minimum of five controls per case, matched for year of birth, oblast (region) of registration, and residence. All identified cases were reviewed by an international panel of experts; 87 of 111 were confirmed. The dose-response analysis and results are given in companion paper III. As background, we describe herein the design, procedures, outcome of case finding and confirmation, control selection, dose estimation and interviewing of subjects.

Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence and radiation dose from fallout

Settlements near the Semipalatinsk Test Site (SNTS) in northeastern Kazakhstan were exposed to radioactive fallout during 1949-1962. Thyroid disease prevalence among 2994 residents of eight villages was ascertained by ultrasound screening. Malignancy was determined by cytopathology. Individual thyroid doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed from fallout deposition patterns, residential histories and diet, including childhood milk consumption. Point estimates of individual external and internal dose averaged 0.04 Gy (range 0-0.65) and 0.31 Gy (0-9.6), respectively, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.46. Ultrasound-detected thyroid nodule prevalence was 18% and 39% among males and females, respectively. It was significantly and independently associated with both external and internal dose, the main study finding. The estimated relative biological effectiveness of internal compared to external radiation dose was 0.33, with 95% confidence bounds of 0.09-3.11. Prevalence of papillary cancer was 0.9% and was not significantly associated with radiation dose. In terms of excess relative risk per unit dose, our dose-response findings for nodule prevalence are comparable to those from populations exposed to medical X rays and to acute radiation from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings.

Contribution of internal exposures to the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident

The main pathways leading to exposure of members of the general public due to the Chernobyl accident were external exposure from radionuclides deposited on the ground and ingestion of contaminated terrestrial food products. The collective dose to the thyroid was nearly 1.5 million man Gy in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine with nearly half received by children and adolescents. The collective effective dose received in 1986-2005 by approximately five million residents living in the affected areas of the three countries was approximately 50,000 man Sv with approximately 40% from ingestion. That contribution might have been larger if countermeasures had not been applied. The main radionuclide contributing to both external and internal effective dose is 137Cs with smaller contributions of 134Cs and 90Sr and negligible contribution of transuranic elements. The major demonstrated radiation-caused health effect of the Chernobyl accident has been an elevated incidence of thyroid cancer in children.

Retrospective biodosimetry among United States radiologic technologists

Measurement of chromosome translocations in peripheral blood lymphocytes has been used to quantify prior exposure to ionizing radiation, including for workers exposed to low, chronic doses. We assessed translocation frequencies in a subset of U.S. radiologic technologists to substantiate ionizing radiation dose estimates developed for 110,418 technologists who worked between 1916 and 1984. From 3,441 cohort members known to have begun working before 1950, we selected a sample of 152, stratified by estimated cumulative dose, over-sampling from higher-dose categories and excluding persons with a prior cancer diagnosis, a personal or family history of chromosomal instability disorders, or a current history of smoking. Estimates of film-badge dose ranged from less than 10 cSv to more than 30 cSv. Blood samples, obtained in 2004, were analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) whole chromosome painting by simultaneously labeling chromosomes 1, 2 and 4 in red and 3, 5 and 6 in green. Translocations were scored in 1800 well-spread metaphase cells and expressed per 100 cell equivalents (CE) per person. Linear Poisson regression models with allowance for overdispersion were used to assess the relationship between estimated occupational red bone marrow absorbed dose in cGy and translocation frequency, adjusted for age, gender and estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose score from personal diagnostic procedures. We observed 0.09 excess translocations per 100 CE per cGy red bone marrow dose (95% CI: -0.01, 0.2; P = 0.07), which is similar to the expected estimate based on previous cytogenetic studies (0.05 excess translocations per 100 CE per cGy). Despite uncertainty in the estimates of occupational red bone marrow absorbed doses, we found good general agreement between the doses and translocation frequencies, lending support to the credibility of the dose assessment for this large cohort of U.S. radiologic technologists.

Radiation exposure to the population of Europe following the Chernobyl accident

On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident an attempt has been made to evaluate the impact of the Chernobyl accident on the global burden of human cancer in Europe. This required the estimation of radiation doses in each of the 40 European countries. Dose estimation was based on the analysis and compilation of data either published in the scientific literature or provided by local experts. Considerable variability has been observed in exposure levels among the European populations. The average individual doses to the thyroid from the intake of (131)I for children aged 1 y were found to vary from approximately 0.01 mGy in Portugal up to 750 mGy in Gomel Oblast (Belarus). Thyroid doses to adults were consistently lower than the doses received by young children. The average individual effective doses from external exposure and ingestion of long-lived radiocaesium accrued in the period 1986-2005 varied from approximately 0 in Portugal to approximately 10 mSv in Gomel Oblast (Belarus) and Bryansk Oblast (Russia). The uncertainties in the dose estimates were subjectively estimated on the basis of the availability and reliability of the radiation data that were used for dose reconstruction in each country.

Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and unshared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) unshared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7.

Questionnaire- and measurement-based individual thyroid doses in Ukraine resulting from the Chornobyl nuclear reactor accident

The U.S. National Cancer Institute (NCI), in cooperation with the Ministries of Health of Belarus and of Ukraine, is involved in epidemiological studies of thyroid diseases presumably related to the Chornobyl accident, which occurred in Ukraine on 26 April 1986. Within the framework of these studies, individual thyroid absorbed doses, as well as uncertainties, have been estimated for all members of the cohorts (13,215 Ukrainians and 11,918 Belarusians), who were selected from the large group of children aged 0 to 18 whose thyroids were monitored for gamma radiation within a few weeks after the accident. Information on the residence history and dietary habits of each cohort member was obtained during personal interviews. The methodology used to estimate the thyroid absorbed doses resulting from intakes of (131)I by the Ukrainian cohort subjects is described. The model of thyroid dose estimation is run in two modes: deterministic and stochastic. In the stochastic mode, the model is run 1,000 times for each subject using a Monte Carlo procedure. The geometric means of the individual thyroid absorbed doses obtained in the stochastic mode range from 0.0006 to 42 Gy. The arithmetic and geometric means of these individual thyroid absorbed doses over the entire cohort are 0.68 and 0.23 Gy, respectively. On average, the individual thyroid dose estimates obtained in the deterministic mode are about the same as the geometric mean doses obtained in the stochastic mode, while the arithmetic mean thyroid absorbed doses obtained in the stochastic mode are about 20% higher than those obtained in the deterministic mode. The distributions of the 1000 values of the individual thyroid absorbed dose estimates are found to be approximately lognormal, with geometric standard deviations ranging from 1.6 to 5.0 for most cohort subjects. For the time being, only the thyroid doses resulting from intakes of (131)I have been estimated for all subjects. Future work will include the estimation of the contributions to the thyroid doses resulting from external irradiation and from intakes of short-lived ((133)I and (132)Te) and long-lived ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) radionuclides, as well as efforts to reduce the uncertainties.

Post-Chornobyl Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: Risk Analysis

On April 26, 1986, the worst nuclear reactor accident to date occurred at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) power plant in Ukraine. Millions of people in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were exposed to radioactive nuclides, especially (131)I. Since then, research has been conducted on various subgroups of the exposed population, and it has been demonstrated that the large increase in thyroid cancer is related to the (131)I exposure. However, because of study limitations, quantified risk estimates are limited, and there remains a need for additional information. We conducted an ecological study to investigate the relationship between (131)I thyroid dose and the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in three highly contaminated oblasts in Northern Ukraine. The study population is comprised of 301,907 persons who were between the ages of 1 and 18 at the time of the Chornobyl accident and were living in 1,293 rural settlements in the three study oblasts. Twenty-four percent of the study population had individual thyroid dose estimates and the other 76% had "individualized" estimates of thyroid dose based on direct thyroid measurements taken from a person of the same age and gender living in the same or nearby settlement. Cases include 232 thyroid cancers diagnosed from January 1990 through December 2001, and all were confirmed histologically. Dose-response analyses took into account differences in the rate of ultrasound examinations conducted in the three study oblasts. The estimated excess relative risk per gray was 8.0 (95% CI = 4.6-15) and the excess absolute risk per 10,000 person-year gray was estimated to be 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2-1.9). In broad terms, these estimates are compatible with results of other studies from the contaminated areas, as well as studies of external radiation exposure.

Normal Organ Radiation Dosimetry and Associated Uncertainties in Nuclear Medicine, with Emphasis on Iodine-131

In many medical applications involving the administration of iodine-131 ((131)I) in the form of iodide (I(-)), most of the dose is delivered to the thyroid gland. To reliably estimate the thyroid absorbed dose, the following data are required: the thyroid gland size (i.e. mass), the fractional uptake of (131)I by the thyroid, the spatial distribution of (131)I within the thyroid, and the length of time (131)I is retained in the thyroid before it is released back to blood, distributed in other organs and tissues, and excreted from the body. Estimation of absorbed dose to nonthyroid tissues likewise requires knowledge of the time course of activity in each organ. Such data are rarely available, however, and therefore dose calculations are generally based on reference models. The MIRD and ICRP have published metabolic models and have calculated absorbed doses per unit intake for many nuclides and radioactive pharmaceuticals. Given the activity taken into the body, one can use such models and make reasonable calculations for average organ doses. When normal retention and excretion pathways are altered, the baseline models need to be modified, and the resulting organ dose estimates are subject to larger errors. This paper describes the historical evolution of radioactive isotopes in medical diagnosis and therapy. We nonmathematically summarize the methods used in current practice to estimate absorbed dose and summarize some of the risk data that have emerged from medical studies of patients with special attention to dose and effects observed in those who received (131)I-iodide in diagnosis and/or therapy.

Cancer consequences of the Chernobyl accident: 20 years on

26 April 2006 marks the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl accident. On this occasion, the World Health Organization (WHO), within the UN Chernobyl Forum initiative, convened an Expert Group to evaluate the health impacts of Chernobyl. This paper summarises the findings relating to cancer. A dramatic increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed among those exposed to radioactive iodines in childhood and adolescence in the most contaminated territories. Iodine deficiency may have increased the risk of developing thyroid cancer following exposure to radioactive iodines, while prolonged stable iodine supplementation in the years after exposure may reduce this risk. Although increases in rates of other cancers have been reported, much of these increases appear to be due to other factors, including improvements in registration, reporting and diagnosis. Studies are few, however, and have methodological limitations. Further, because most radiation-related solid cancers continue to occur decades after exposure and because only 20 years have passed since the accident, it is too early to evaluate the full radiological impact of the accident. Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young people, there are at present no clearly demonstrated radiation-related increases in cancer risk. This should not, however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, given the very large number of individuals exposed.

A transferability study of the EPR-tooth-dosimetry technique

The transferability of a measurement protocol from one laboratory to another is an important feature of any mature, standardised protocol. The electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR)-tooth dosimetry technique that was developed in Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine, AMS, Ukraine (SCRM) for routine dosimetry of Chernobyl liquidators has demonstrated consistent results in several inter-laboratory measurement comparisons. Transferability to the EPR dosimetry laboratory at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was examined. Several approaches were used to test the technique, including dose reconstruction of SCRM-NIST inter-comparison samples. The study has demonstrated full transferability of the technique and the possibility to reproduce results in a different laboratory environment.

Using total beta-activity measurements in milk to derive thyroid doses from Chernobyl fallout

Following the Chernobyl accident, more than 200 childhood thyroid cancer cases have been observed in Brest Oblast of Belarus in territories slightly contaminated with 137Cs, but with suspected relatively high 131I fallout. The most helpful measurements available that can be used to estimate thyroid doses for the population of Brest Oblast are the total beta-activity measurements in cow's milk performed using DP-100 device within a few weeks after the accident. The 131I concentrations in milk were derived from the total beta-activity measurements on the basis of (1) a radioecological model used to estimate the variation with time of the radionuclide composition in milk and (2) the determination of the calibration factors of the DP-100 device for the most important radionuclides present in milk. As a result, 131I concentrations in milk were reconstructed for territories with different levels of 137Cs deposition. A non-linear dependence of the 131I concentration in milk on the 137Cs deposition density was obtained; it was used to estimate the thyroid doses from the consumption of 131I-contaminated cow's milk by the population of Brest Oblast. The average individual thyroid doses have been estimated to be 0.15, 0.18, 0.12, 0.06, 0.04 and 0.03 Gy for newborn, children aged 1, 5, 10 and 15 y and adults, respectively. The collective thyroid dose for the entire population of Brest Oblast is estimated to be 64,500 man Gy, the contribution from the adult population being about one half of the total. The methodology that is described could be applied in the framework of epidemiological studies of the relationship between radiation exposure to the thyroid gland and thyroid cancer in areas where numerous total beta-activity measurements in cow's milk were performed within a few weeks after the accident.

Post-Chornobyl Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine. Report 1: Estimation of Thyroid Doses

About 1.8 EBq of 131I was released into the atmosphere during the Chornobyl accident that occurred in Ukraine on April 26, 1986. More than 10% of this activity was deposited on the territory of Ukraine. Beginning 4-5 years after the accident, an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among children, believed to be caused in part by exposure to 131I, has been observed in different regions of Ukraine. A three-level system of thyroid dose estimation was developed for the reconstruction of thyroid doses from 131I for the entire population of Ukrainian children aged 1 to 18 at the time of accident: (1) At the first level, individual doses were estimated for the approximately 99,000 children and adolescents with direct measurements of radioactivity in the thyroid (so-called direct thyroid measurements) performed in May-June of 1986; (2) at the second level, group doses by year of age and by gender were estimated for the population of 748 localities (with 208,400 children aged 1-18 in 1986) where direct thyroid measurements of good quality were performed on some of the residents; and (3) at the third level, group doses by age and by gender were estimated for the population of the localities where no thyroid measurements were made in 1986. The third-level doses were then aggregated over the population of each oblast. Data, models and procedures required for each level of thyroid dose estimation are described in the paper. At the first level, individual doses were found to range up to 27,000 mGy, with geometric and arithmetic means of 100 and 300 mGy, respectively. At the second level, group doses were found to be highest for the younger children (aged 1 to 4 years); doses for the older children (aged 16 to 18 years) were 3.5 times smaller. At the third level, average population-weighted doses were found to exceed 35 mGy in the five northern oblasts closer to the Chornobyl reactor site; to be in the 14- to 34-mGy range in seven other oblasts, Kyiv city and Crimea; and to be less than 13 mGy in all other oblasts.