Clinical hypoxemia score for outpatient child pneumonia care lacking pulse oximetry in Africa and South Asia

Background

Pulse oximeters are not routinely available in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. We derived clinical scores to identify hypoxemic child pneumonia.

Methods

This was a retrospective pooled analysis of two outpatient datasets of 3-35 month olds with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined pneumonia in Bangladesh and Malawi. We constructed, internally validated, and compared fit & discrimination of four models predicting SpO2 < 93% and <90%: (1) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness guidelines, (2) WHO-composite guidelines, (3) Independent variable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO); (4) Composite variable LASSO.

Results

12,712 observations were included. The independent and composite LASSO models discriminated moderately (both C-statistic 0.77) between children with a SpO2 < 93% and ≥94%; model predictive capacities remained moderate after adjusting for potential overfitting (C-statistic 0.74 and 0.75). The IMCI and WHO-composite models had poorer discrimination (C-statistic 0.56 and 0.68) and identified 20.6% and 56.8% of SpO2 < 93% cases. The highest score stratum of the independent and composite LASSO models identified 46.7% and 49.0% of SpO2 < 93% cases. Both LASSO models had similar performance for a SpO2 < 90%.

Conclusions

In the absence of pulse oximeters, both LASSO models better identified outpatient hypoxemic pneumonia cases than the WHO guidelines. Score external validation and implementation are needed.

Risk and accuracy of outpatient-identified hypoxaemia for death among suspected child pneumonia cases in rural Bangladesh: a multifacility prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hypoxaemic pneumonia mortality risk in low-income and middle-income countries is high in children who have been hospitalised, but unknown among outpatient children. We sought to establish the outpatient burden, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of death from hypoxaemia in children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective community-based cohort study encompassing three upazila (subdistrict) health complex catchment areas in Sylhet, Bangladesh. Children aged 3-35 months participating in a community surveillance programme and presenting to one of three upazila health complex Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) outpatient clinics with an acute illness and signs of difficult breathing (defined as suspected pneumonia) were enrolled in the study; because lower respiratory tract infection mortality mainly occurs in children younger than 1 year, the primary study population comprised children aged 3-11 months. Study physicians recorded WHO IMCI pneumonia guideline clinical signs and peripheral arterial oxyhaemoglobin saturations (SpO2) in room air. They treated children with pneumonia with antibiotics (oral amoxicillin [40 mg/kg per dose twice per day for 5-7 days, as per local practice]), and recommended oxygen, parenteral antibiotics, and hospitalisation for those with an SpO2 of less than 90%, WHO IMCI danger signs, or severe malnutrition. Community health workers documented the children's vital status and the date of any vital status changes during routine household surveillance (one visit to each household every 2 months). The primary outcome was death at 2 weeks after enrolment in children aged 3-11 months (primary study population) and 12-35 months (secondary study population). Primary analyses included estimating the outpatient prevalence, mortality risk, and prognostic accuracy of hypoxaemia for death in children aged 3-11 months with suspected pneumonia. Risk ratios were produced by fitting a multivariable model that regressed predefined SpO2 ranges (<90%, 90-93%, and 94-100%) on the primary 2-week mortality outcome (binary outcome) using Poisson models with robust variance estimation. We established the prognostic accuracy of WHO IMCI guidelines for death with and without varying SpO2 thresholds.

FINDINGS

Participants were recruited between Sept 1, 2015, to Aug 31, 2017. During the study period, a total of 7440 children aged 3-35 months with the first suspected pneumonia episode were enrolled, of whom 3848 (54·3%) with an attempted pulse oximeter measurement and 2-week outcome were included in our primary study population of children aged 3-11-months. Among children aged 3-11 months, an SpO2 of less than 90% occurred in 102 (2·7%) of 3848 children, an SpO2 of 90-93% occurred in 306 (8·0%) children, a failed SpO2 measurement occurred in 67 (1·7%) children, and 24 (0·6%) children with suspected pneumonia died. Compared with an SpO2 of 94-100% (3373 [87·7%] of 3848), the adjusted risk ratio for death was 10·3 (95% CI 3·2-32·3; p<0·001) for an SpO2 of less than 90%, 4·3 (1·5-11·8; p=0·005) for an SpO2 of 90-93%, and 11·4 (3·1-41·4; p<0·001) for a failed measurement. When not considering pulse oximetry, of the children who died, WHO IMCI guidelines identified only 25·0% (95% CI 9·7-46·7; six of 24 children) as eligible for referral to hospital. For identifying deaths, in children with an SpO2 of less than 90% WHO IMCI guidelines had a 41·7% sensitivity (95% CI 22·1-63·4) and 89·7% specificity (88·7-90·7); for children with an SpO2 of less than 90% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 54·2% sensitivity (32·8-74·4) and 88·3% specificity (87·2-89·3); and for children with an SpO2 of less than 94% or measurement failure the guidelines had a 62·5% sensitivity (40·6-81·2) and 81·3% specificity (80·0-82·5).

INTERPRETATION

These findings support pulse oximeter use during the outpatient care of young children with suspected pneumonia in Bangladesh as well as the re-evaluation of the WHO IMCI currently recommended threshold of an SpO2 less than 90% for hospital referral.

FUNDING

Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health (K01TW009988), The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1084286 and OPP1117483), and GlaxoSmithKline (90063241).

Vulnerable newborn types: analysis of subnational, population-based birth cohorts for 541 285 live births in 23 countries, 2000-2021

OBJECTIVE

To examine prevalence of novel newborn types among 541 285 live births in 23 countries from 2000 to 2021.

DESIGN

Descriptive multi-country secondary data analysis.

SETTING

Subnational, population-based birth cohort studies (n = 45) in 23 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) spanning 2000-2021.

POPULATION

Liveborn infants.

METHODS

Subnational, population-based studies with high-quality birth outcome data from LMICs were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We defined distinct newborn types using gestational age (preterm [PT], term [T]), birthweight for gestational age using INTERGROWTH-21st standards (small for gestational age [SGA], appropriate for gestational age [AGA] or large for gestational age [LGA]), and birthweight (low birthweight, LBW [<2500 g], nonLBW) as ten types (using all three outcomes), six types (by excluding the birthweight categorisation), and four types (by collapsing the AGA and LGA categories). We defined small types as those with at least one classification of LBW, PT or SGA. We presented study characteristics, participant characteristics, data missingness, and prevalence of newborn types by region and study.

RESULTS

Among 541 285 live births, 476 939 (88.1%) had non-missing and plausible values for gestational age, birthweight and sex required to construct the newborn types. The median prevalences of ten types across studies were T+AGA+nonLBW (58.0%), T+LGA+nonLBW (3.3%), T+AGA+LBW (0.5%), T+SGA+nonLBW (14.2%), T+SGA+LBW (7.1%), PT+LGA+nonLBW (1.6%), PT+LGA+LBW (0.2%), PT+AGA+nonLBW (3.7%), PT+AGA+LBW (3.6%) and PT+SGA+LBW (1.0%). The median prevalence of small types (six types, 37.6%) varied across studies and within regions and was higher in Southern Asia (52.4%) than in Sub-Saharan Africa (34.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Further investigation is needed to describe the mortality risks associated with newborn types and understand the implications of this framework for local targeting of interventions to prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes in LMICs.

Protocol for validation of the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) for children under 3 years of age in seven countries

INTRODUCTION

Children's early development is affected by caregiving experiences, with lifelong health and well-being implications. Governments and civil societies need population-based measures to monitor children's early development and ensure that children receive the care needed to thrive. To this end, the WHO developed the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) to measure children's early development up to 3 years of age. The GSED includes three measures for population and programmatic level measurement: (1) short form (SF) (caregiver report), (2) long form (LF) (direct administration) and (3) psychosocial form (PF) (caregiver report). The primary aim of this protocol is to validate the GSED SF and LF. Secondary aims are to create preliminary reference scores for the GSED SF and LF, validate an adaptive testing algorithm and assess the feasibility and preliminary validity of the GSED PF.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct the validation in seven countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Pakistan, The Netherlands, People's Republic of China, United Republic of Tanzania), varying in geography, language, culture and income through a 1-year prospective design, combining cross-sectional and longitudinal methods with 1248 children per site, stratified by age and sex. The GSED generates an innovative common metric (Developmental Score: D-score) using the Rasch model and a Development for Age Z-score (DAZ). We will evaluate six psychometric properties of the GSED SF and LF: concurrent validity, predictive validity at 6 months, convergent and discriminant validity, and test-retest and inter-rater reliability. We will evaluate measurement invariance by comparing differential item functioning and differential test functioning across sites.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has received ethical approval from the WHO (protocol GSED validation 004583 20.04.2020) and approval in each site. Study results will be disseminated through webinars and publications from WHO, international organisations, academic journals and conference proceedings.

REGISTRATION DETAILS

Open Science Framework https://osf.io/ on 19 November 2021 (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/KX5T7; identifier: osf-registrations-kx5t7-v1).

Effectiveness of the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pediatric pneumonia confirmed by ultrasound: a matched case-control study

Background

Bangladesh introduced the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) for children aged < 1 year in March 2015. Previous vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies for pneumonia have used invasive pneumococcal disease or chest X-rays. None have used ultrasound. We sought to determine the VE of PCV10 against sonographically-confirmed pneumonia in three subdistrict health complexes in Bangladesh.

Methods

We conducted a matched case–control study between July 2015 and September 2017 in three subdistricts of Sylhet, Bangladesh. Cases were vaccine-eligible children aged 3–35 months with sonographically-confirmed pneumonia, who were matched with two types of controls by age, sex, week of diagnosis, subdistrict health complex (clinic controls) or distance from subdistrict health complex (community controls) and had an illness unlikely due to Streptococcus pneumoniae (clinic controls) or were healthy (community controls). VE was measured using multivariable conditional logistic regression.

Results

We evaluated 8926 children (average age 13.3 months, 58% boys) with clinical pneumonia by ultrasound; 2470 had pneumonia with consolidations ≥ 1 cm; 1893 pneumonia cases were matched with 4238 clinic controls; and 1832 were matched with 3636 community controls. VE increased with the threshold used for consolidation size on ultrasound: the adjusted VE of ≥ 2 doses vs. non-recipients of PCV10 against pneumonia increased from 15.8% (95% CI 1.6–28.0%) for consolidations ≥ 1 cm to 29.6% (12.8–43.2%) for consolidations ≥ 1.5 cm using clinic controls and from 2.7% (− 14.2–17.2%) to 23.5% (4.4–38.8%) using community controls, respectively.

Conclusions

PCV10 was effective at reducing sonographically-confirmed pneumonia in children aged 3–35 months of age when compared to unvaccinated children. VE increased with the threshold used for consolidation size on ultrasound in clinic and community controls alike. This study provides evidence that lung ultrasound is a useful alternative to chest X-ray for case–control studies evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines against pneumonia.

Defining hypoxaemia from pulse oximeter measurements of oxygen saturation in well children at low altitude in Bangladesh: an observational study

Background

WHO defines hypoxaemia, a low peripheral arterial oxyhaemoglobin saturation (SpO₂), as <90%. Although hypoxaemia is an important risk factor for mortality of children with respiratory infections, the optimal SpO₂ threshold for defining hypoxaemia is uncertain in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We derived a SpO₂ threshold for hypoxaemia from well children in Bangladesh residing at low altitude.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled well, children aged 3–35 months participating in a pneumococcal vaccine evaluation in Sylhet district, Bangladesh between June and August 2017. Trained health workers conducting community surveillance measured the SpO₂ of children using a Masimo Rad-5 pulse oximeter with a wrap sensor. We used standard summary statistics to evaluate the SpO₂ distribution, including whether the distribution differed by age or sex. We considered the 2.5th, 5th and 10th percentiles of SpO₂ as possible lower thresholds for hypoxaemia.

Results

Our primary analytical sample included 1470 children (mean age 18.6±9.5 months). Median SpO₂ was 98% (IQR 96%–99%), and the 2.5th, 5th and 10th percentile SpO₂ was 91%, 92% and 94%. No child had a SpO₂ <90%. Children 3–11 months had a lower median SpO₂ (97%) than 12–23 months (98%) and 24–35 months (98%) (p=0.039). The SpO₂ distribution did not differ by sex (p=0.959).

Conclusion

A SpO₂ threshold for hypoxaemia derived from the 2.5th, 5th or 10th percentile of well children is higher than <90%. If a higher threshold than <90% is adopted into LMIC care algorithms then decision-making using SpO₂ must also consider the child’s clinical status to minimise misclassification of well children as hypoxaemic. Younger children in lower altitude LMICs may require a different threshold for hypoxaemia than older children. Evaluating the mortality risk of sick children using higher SpO₂ thresholds for hypoxaemia is a key next step.

Impact of national introduction of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease in Bangladesh: Case-control and time-trend studies

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh introduced the ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) into its national immunization program in March 2015 creating an opportunity to assess the real-world impact of PCV on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD).

METHODS

Between January 2014 and June 2018, children aged 3-35 months in three rural sub-districts of Sylhet district of Bangladesh were visited every two months to collect morbidity and care-seeking data. Children attending sub-district hospitals with pneumonia, meningitis, or sepsis were assessed for IPD after obtaining informed consent. Blood and cerebrospinal fluid were collected from enrolled children to isolate pneumococcus using culture and molecular test. Children who were age-eligible to receive the PCV and had pneumococcus isolated were enrolled as cases. Four age and sex-matched clinic and community controls were selected for each case within one to two weeks of case identification. Data on immunization status and confounders were collected. PCV coverage was estimated using vaccine coverage surveys. Case-control and incidence trend analyses were conducted to assess the impact of PCV on IPD.

RESULTS

The community cohort yielded 217,605 child years of observations and 154,773 sick child-visits to study hospitals. Pneumococcus was isolated from 44 children who were age-eligible to receive PCV; these children were enrolled as cases. The cases were matched with 166 community- and 150 clinic-controls. The matched case-control analyses using community-controls showed 83% effectiveness (95% CI: 1.57-97.1%) and clinic controls showed 90% effectiveness (95% CI: -26.0% to 99.1%) of PCV in preventing IPD. Incidence trend analysis estimated vaccine effectiveness at 80.1% (95% CI: 38.4, 93.6).

CONCLUSION

PCV in this pediatric population in Bangladesh was highly effective in preventing IPD.

Antenatal Dexamethasone for Early Preterm Birth in Low-Resource Countries

BACKGROUND

The safety and efficacy of antenatal glucocorticoids in women in low-resource countries who are at risk for preterm birth are uncertain.

METHODS

We conducted a multicountry, randomized trial involving pregnant women between 26 weeks 0 days and 33 weeks 6 days of gestation who were at risk for preterm birth. The participants were assigned to intramuscular dexamethasone or identical placebo. The primary outcomes were neonatal death alone, stillbirth or neonatal death, and possible maternal bacterial infection; neonatal death alone and stillbirth or neonatal death were evaluated with superiority analyses, and possible maternal bacterial infection was evaluated with a noninferiority analysis with the use of a prespecified margin of 1.25 on the relative scale.

RESULTS

A total of 2852 women (and their 3070 fetuses) from 29 secondary- and tertiary-level hospitals across Bangladesh, India, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan underwent randomization. The trial was stopped for benefit at the second interim analysis. Neonatal death occurred in 278 of 1417 infants (19.6%) in the dexamethasone group and in 331 of 1406 infants (23.5%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 0.97; P = 0.03). Stillbirth or neonatal death occurred in 393 of 1532 fetuses and infants (25.7%) and in 444 of 1519 fetuses and infants (29.2%), respectively (relative risk, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.99; P = 0.04); the incidence of possible maternal bacterial infection was 4.8% and 6.3%, respectively (relative risk, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.56 to 1.03). There was no significant between-group difference in the incidence of adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

Among women in low-resource countries who were at risk for early preterm birth, the use of dexamethasone resulted in significantly lower risks of neonatal death alone and stillbirth or neonatal death than the use of placebo, without an increase in the incidence of possible maternal bacterial infection. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the World Health Organization; Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12617000476336; Clinical Trials Registry-India number, CTRI/2017/04/008326.).

Orthostatic tremor: report of a case and review of the literature

Orthostatic tremor is a rare movement disorder characterized by tremulousness of the lower limbs on standing that disappears on walking, sitting or on lying down and a distinctive electromyographic burst of 14 to 16 Hz. On inspection, fine ripples can sometimes be seen over the quadriceps on standing. The tremor has a tendency to reappear even in the supine posture if the lower limb muscles are put to an isometric contraction state, indicating thereby that in spite of the fact that the tremor occurs on standing, it is essentially 'orthostasis independent' and the central factor is the contraction of the muscles. As a matter of fact, the tremor is abolished if the subject is suspended by harness, thus relieving him of muscle contraction. Doubts are being cast whether it is a variant of essential tremor since a number of families are being reported to be suffering from this disease as well. Positron emission tomography reveals hyperactivity of cerebellum in orthostatic tremor as it shows in essential tremor, therefore lending credence to such a hypothesis. However, lack of response to alcohol, propranolol and primidone in orthostatic tremor stands out as a serious challenge to such a view. Lack of positive family history, synchrony of contracting group of muscles and negative 'resetting' of the tremor by increasing peripheral load-phenomena consistently observed in orthostatic tremor and not in essential tremor, are other features that often help to distinguish between the two conditions. We report a case of orthostatic tremor that presented with the classical clinical and electromyographic features. Relevant literature in this regard is also being reviewed.

The prognostic significance of marrow micrometastases in women with early breast cancer

Twenty-five patients with early breast cancer (T0-T2, N0-N1, M0) have been studied prospectively to determine the relationship between marrow micrometastases, disease-free interval and survival. Marrow specimens were aspirated from three sites immediately prior to breast surgery. An immunocytochemical technique using monoclonal antibody LICR.LON.M8.4 was employed to detect micrometastases. The minimum follow-up was 38 months. Twelve of the 25 patients (48%) had micrometastatic lesions in their marrow at presentation. Four of these patients developed distal recurrence during follow-up, causing death in two of them. Five of the 13 patients with no evidence of micrometastases developed distant recurrence and four of them have died. There was no correlation between the state of the marrow and the development of metastatic disease, although axillary lymph node status, disease stage and tumour volume correlated significantly with outcome (all P less than 0.025). Micrometastatic lesions appear to be common in the marrow of patients with early breast cancer. We have been unable to demonstrate that they have prognostic significance.

Wound sepsis in 10,000 surgical patients

A twelve year prospective wound audit was undertaken in an academic surgical unit. Data from 10,000 operations were analysed. Overall, wound infection rates decreased during this time. Infection rates in contaminated wounds in particular fell from 19.2% to 4.7%. This decrease in wound infection may be related in part to a change in the antibiotic prophylactic regimen and in part to the institution of the wound sepsis audit which provided regular information on the unit infection rates. This audit permitted early detection of adverse trends, and may have had a direct influence on surgical techniques.

High colloidal uptake in axillary nodes with metastatic disease

Axillary lymphoscintigraphy using 99Tcm antimony sulphide colloid has been carried out in 29 patients with suspected breast cancer and was correlated with histology. Of the 23 with proved tumour, axillary node metastases were found in 19 and, although 10 did have diminished uptake on the side of the lesion, 5 had an equal uptake in both sides and 4 had an increased uptake on the side of the lesion. Further, some of the nodes in which the high uptake had occurred were those heavily infiltrated by tumour. It is concluded that: a, lymphoscintigraphy with antimony sulphide colloid is not a reliable technique for the detection of metastatic disease in the regional nodes; b, any lymphoscintigraphy with this or any other agent requires more meticulous histological correlation than hitherto before it can be assumed to have any proved clinical value.

Idiopathic intestinal pseudo-obstruction: a familial visceral neuropathy

Four individuals with idiopathic intestinal pseudo-obstruction (IIP), a familial visceral neuropathy with autosomal dominant inheritance, are presented. The disorder is characterised by abdominal colic, abdominal distension and diarrhoea, and is of a progressive nature with relapses and remissions. The main feature is a disturbance of motility in the affected intestine, with histological evidence of a neuronal disorder, characterised by hyperplasia and eventual atrophy. Management of the condition is difficult; initially, treatment should be conservative by nasogastric suction with intravenous nutrition. When laparotomy is undertaken to exclude mechanical obstruction, resection of the intestine is inadvisable, and ileo-colic anastomosis may be beneficial.

Surgical care in the village

The care of people suffering from surgical disease or injury is unique in requiring, even at its simplest level, a certain degree of psychomotor skill and technological support. This cannot be achieved and maintained in isolation with any consistency. Villages must therefore be interdependent and related to supervision from the district hospital. The responsibility for village care rests with the district physician. He must be adequately trained for this purpose and provided with the simple facilities that are required. He extends his reach into the villages through the auxiliary health workers, who must be taught the skills necessary for simple surgical procedures and be trained to stabilize those patients that they cannot treat for transport to the district hospital. Although the skills and facilities required must be determined locally, there is a need to define the broad principles of training and to develop simple and adequate technology at village and district levels.

Faecal bile acid concentration of patients with carcinoma or increased risk of carcinoma in the large bowel

Faecal 3-hydroxy bile acids were assayed enzymatically in patients with carcinoma, or at increased risk of developing carcinoma of the large bowel. No rise in bile acid concentration was demonstrated in patients with ulcerative colitis, previously resected adenoma, or resected carcinoma. Patients with carcinoma, before treatment, had faecal bile acid concentrations similar to control values, and surgery did not affect the mean level. These findings cast doubt on the importance of the 3-hydroxy bile acid concentration in the faeces in the pathogenesis of large bowel cancer.

The problems of massive small bowel resection and difficulties encountered in management

Massive small bowel resection is imperative in the management of several pathological conditions and is accompanied by high operative mortality. In those that survive, serious nutritional disturbances are inevitable. Intestinal adaptation is said to occur but cannot be relied upon. Long-term parenteral nutrition is problematical and often unsuccessful. Many surgical procedures have been adopted in an effort to improve prognosis and have been found wanting. Controlled experimental studies in the use of reversed segments and a limited number of reported clinical cases using the method after massive resection suggest that this technique may improve the function of the residual intestine to such an extent that other supportive measures are unnecessary.

Rhinophycomycosis entomophthorae occurring in a chimpanzee in the wild in East Africa: further report

The further progress of a wild chimpanzee with rhinophycomycosis entomophthorae is reported. The swellings remained unchanged for about a year but early in 1973 they increased greatly in size, making the animal virtually blind. They regressed following administration of two courses of iodide in massive doses, and the animal in now apparently pregnant.

Epithelial hamartoma of liver

The successful removal of an epithelial hamartoma from the liver of a 7-month-old African child is reported. This hamartoma weighed 1875 g. and is believed to be the largest tumour of this type described in such a young patient. This case indicates that a ‘hopeless abdomen’ is always worth exploring in anticipation of the occasional happy outcome.

Failure of trasylol to reduce intestinal content of trypsin and chymotrypsin in man

The daily output of trypsin and chymotrypsin was measured in the stools of four patients with an established ileostomy under controlled dietary and metabolic conditions for a control period of four days. Trasylol, given intravenously in a dose of 500,000 units over eight hours, failed to affect the output of enzymes over the next two days, or to alter the distribution of bound and soluble enzymes.