Pancreatic Cancer Multidisciplinary Clinic is Associated with Improved Treatment and Elimination of Socioeconomic Disparities

OBJECTIVE

To identify the association between multidisciplinary clinic (MDC) management and disparities in treatment for patients with pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic status (SES) predicts treatment and survival for pancreatic cancer. Multidisciplinary clinics (MDCs) may improve surgical management for these patients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study (2010-2018) of all pancreatic cancer patients within a large, regional hospital system with a high-volume pancreatic cancer MDC. The primary outcome was receipt of treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, radiation, clinical trial participation, and palliative care); the secondary outcomes were overall survival and MDC management. Multiple logistic regressions were used for binary outcomes. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards, and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW).

RESULTS

Of the 4141 patients studied, 1420 (34.3%) were managed by the MDC. MDC management was more likely for patients who were younger age, married, and privately insured, while less likely for low SES patients (all p < 0.05). MDC patients were more likely to receive all treatments, including neoadjuvant chemotherapy (OR 3.33, 95% CI 2.82-3.93), surgery (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.15-1.68), palliative care (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.05-1.38), and clinical trial participation (OR 3.76, 95% CI 2.86-4.93). Low SES patients were less likely to undergo surgery outside of the MDC (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.31-0.73) but there was no difference within the MDC (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.68-1.77). Across multiple survival analyses, low SES predicted inferior survival outside of the MDC, but there was no association among MDC patients.

CONCLUSION

Multidisciplinary team-based care increases rates of treatment and eliminates socioeconomic disparities for pancreatic cancer patients.

Failure to Thrive Following Cytoreduction and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy: Causes and Consequences

BACKGROUND

Failure to thrive (FTT) is a complex syndrome of nutritional failure and functional decline. Readmission for FTT following cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS HIPEC) is common but underexamined. This study aims to determine features, risk factors, and prognostic significance of FTT following CRS HIPEC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We reviewed patients who underwent CRS HIPEC from 2010 to 2018 at our institution. Patients were categorized into no readmission, FTT readmission, and other readmission. FTT was determined by coding and chart review. We compared baseline characteristics, oncologic data, perioperative outcomes, and survival among the three cohorts.

RESULTS

Of 1068 discharges examined, 379 patients (36%) were readmitted within 90 days, of which 134 (12.5%) were labeled as FTT. Patients with FTT readmission had worse preoperative functional status, higher rates of malnutrition, more complex resections, longer hospital stays, and more postoperative complications (all p < 0.001). Ostomy creation [relative risk ratio (RRR) 4.06], in-hospital venous thromboembolism (VTE), discharge to nursing home (RRR 2.48), pre-CRS HIPEC chemotherapy (RRR 1.98), older age (RRR 1.84), and female gender (RRR 1.69) were all independent predictors for FTT readmission on multinomial regression (all p < 0.01). FTT readmission was associated with worse median overall survival on multivariate analysis [hazard ratio (HR) 1.60, p < 0.001] after controlling for oncologic, perioperative, and baseline factors.

CONCLUSIONS

FTT is common following CRS HIPEC and appears to be associated with baseline patient characteristics, operative burden, and postoperative complications. Perioperative strategies for improving nutrition and activity, along with early recognition and intervention in FTT may improve patient outcomes.

Impact of postoperative pancreatic fistula on long-term oncologic outcomes after pancreatic resection

BACKGROUND

The short-term morbidity associated with post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is well established, however data regarding the long-term impact are lacking. We aim to characterize long-term oncologic outcomes of POPF after pancreatic resection through a single institution, retrospective study of pancreatic resections performed for adenocarcinoma from 2009 to 2016.

METHODS

Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, logistic regression, and multivariate analysis (MVA) were used to evaluate impact of POPF on overall survival (OS), disease free survival (DFS), and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC).

RESULTS

767 patients were included. 82 (10.6%) developed grade B (n = 67) or C (n = 15) POPF. Grade C POPF resulted in decreased OS when compared to no POPF (20.22 vs 26.33 months, p = 0.027) and to grade B POPF (20.22 vs. 26.87 months, p = 0.049). POPF patients were less likely to receive AC than those without POPF (59.5% vs 74.9%, p = 0.003) and grade C POPF were less likely to receive AC than all others (26.7% vs 74.2%, p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

POPF patients are less likely to receive AC and more likely to have delay in time to AC. These factors are exacerbated in grade C POPF and likely contribute to decreased OS. These findings validate the clinical significance of the ISGPF definition of POPF.

Optimal management of patients with operable pancreatic head cancer: A Markov decision analysis

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is an emerging strategy for operable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). While NAT increases multimodal therapy completion, it risks functional decline and treatment dropout. We used decision analysis to determine optimal management of localized PDAC and consider risks faced by elderly patients.

METHODS

A Markov cohort decision analysis model evaluated treatment options for a 60-year-old patient with resectable PDAC: (1) upfront pancreaticoduodenectomy or (2) NAT. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. A subanalysis considered the scenario of a 75-year-old patient.

RESULTS

For the base case, NAT offered an incremental survival gain of 4.6 months compared with SF (overall survival: 26.3 vs. 21.7 months). In one-way sensitivity analyses, findings were sensitive to recurrence-free survival for NAT patients undergoing adjuvant, probability of completing NAT, and probability of being resectable at exploration after NAT. On probabilistic analysis, NAT was favored in a majority of trials (97%) with a median survival benefit of 5.1 months. In altering the base case for the 75-year-old scenario, NAT had a survival benefit of 3.8 months.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates a significant benefit to NAT in patients with localized PDAC. This benefit persists even in the elderly cohort.

Definition and Prediction of Early Recurrence and Mortality Following Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy for Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases: Towards Predicting Oncologic Futility Preoperatively

INTRODUCTION

Early recurrence (ER) is a significant challenge for patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM) following cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS HIPEC). Preoperative risk stratification for ER would improve preoperative decision making.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study examining patients who underwent CRS HIPEC for CRPM from 2000 to 2018. Optimal definition of ER was determined via minimum p-value approach based on differentiation of post-recurrence survival. Risk factors for ER were assessed in a derivation cohort by uni- and multivariate logistic regression. A predictive score for ER was generated using preoperative variables and validated in an independent cohort.

RESULTS

384 patients were analyzed, 316 (82%) had documented recurrence. Optimal length of post-operative RFS to distinguish ER (n = 144, 46%) vs. late recurrence (LR) (n = 172, 63%) was 8 mos (p<0.01). ER patients had shorter median OS post-CRS-HIPEC (13.6 vs. 39.4 mos, p<0.01). Preoperative BMI (OR 1.88), liver lesions (OR 1.89), progression on chemotherapy (OR 2.14), positive lymph nodes (OR 2.47) and PCI score (16-20: OR 1.7; >20: OR 4.37) were significant predictors of ER (all p<0.05). Using this model, patients were assigned risk scores from 0 to 9. Intermediate (scores 4-6) and high-risk patients (score 7-9) had observed rates of ER of 56% and 79% and overall 2-year survival rates of 27% and 0% respectively. The model showed fair discrimination (AUC 0.72) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF p = 0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

ER predicts markedly worse OS following surgery. Preoperative factors can accurately stratify risk for ER and identify patients in whom CRS-HIPEC for CPRM is futile.

Medicaid expansion and the management of pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act has improved access to screening and treatment for certain cancers. It is unclear how this policy has affected the diagnosis and management of pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) approach, we analyzed Medicaid and uninsured patients in the National Cancer Data Base during two time periods: pre-expansion (2011-2012) and postexpansion (2015-2016). We investigated changes in cancer staging, treatment decisions, and surgical outcomes.

RESULTS

In this national cohort, pancreatic cancer patients in expansion states had increased Medicaid coverage relative to those in nonexpansion states (DID = 17.49, p < 0.01). Medicaid expansion also led to an increase in early-stage diagnoses (Stage I/II, DID = 4.71, p = 0.03), higher comorbidity scores among surgical patients (Charlson/Deyo score 0: DID = -13.69, p = 0.02), a trend toward more neoadjuvant radiation (DID = 6.15, p = 0.06), and more positive margins (DID = 11.69, p = 0.02). There were no differences in rates of surgery, postoperative outcomes, or overall survival.

CONCLUSION

Medicaid expansion was associated with improved insurance coverage and earlier stage diagnoses for Medicaid and uninsured pancreatic cancer patients, but similar surgical outcomes and overall survival. These findings highlight both the benefits of Medicaid expansion and the potential limitations of policy change to improve outcomes for such an aggressive malignancy.

Optimal Management of Resectable Pancreatic Head Cancer in the Elderly Patient: Does Neoadjuvant Therapy Offer a Survival Benefit?

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is a growing strategy for patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Elderly patients are at increased risk of treatment withdrawal due to functional decline, and the benefit of NAT in this cohort remains to be studied.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to compare outcomes of elderly patients with resectable head PDAC who underwent NAT or a surgery-first (SF) approach.

METHODS

All patients 75 years of age and older with radiographically resectable (National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria) PDAC who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy at a single institution from 2008 to 2017 were analyzed. Baseline characteristics and perioperative outcomes were compared between the SF and NAT cohorts. Recurrence-free survival and overall survival (OS) were analyzed by treatment strategy.

RESULTS

Overall, 158 patients were identified: SF cohort = 90 (57%) and NAT cohort = 68 (43%). Patients in the SF cohort were older (80 vs. 78 years; p = 0.01) but there were no differences in preoperative comorbidities or frailty indices. SF patients had a trend toward higher rates of major complications (38% vs. 24%; p = 0.06) with higher Comprehensive Complication Index totals (20.9 vs. 20; p = 0.03). There were similar rates of adjuvant therapy. NAT was associated with significantly longer OS (24.6 vs. 17.6 months; p = 0.01) in both the intent-to-treat and resected cohorts. On multivariable analysis (MVA), NAT remained an independent predictor of OS (hazard ratio 0.60; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

NAT is safe and effective for elderly patients with PDAC. This study suggests NAT is associated with fewer complications after surgery, equal rates of adjuvant therapy receipt, and increased OS over a surgery-first approach.

Impact of Socioeconomic Status on Presentation and Outcomes in Colorectal Peritoneal Metastases Following Cytoreduction and Chemoperfusion: Persistent Inequalities in Outcomes at a High-Volume Center

BACKGROUND

Cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemoperfusion (CRS HIPEC) can offer significant survival advantage for select patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (CRPM). Low socioeconomic status (SES) is implicated in disparities in access to care. We analyze the impact of SES on postoperative outcomes and survival at a high-volume tertiary CRS HIPEC center.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study examining patients who underwent CRS HIPEC for CRPM from 2000 to 2018. Patients were grouped according to SES. Baseline characteristics, perioperative outcomes, and survival were examined between groups.

RESULTS

A total of 226 patients were analyzed, 107 (47%) low-SES and 119 (53%) high-SES patients. High-SES patients were younger (52 vs. 58 years, p = 0.01) and more likely to be White (95.0% vs. 91.6%, p = 0.06) and privately insured (83% vs. 57%, p < 0.001). They traveled significantly further for treatment and had lower burden of comorbidities and frailty (p = 0.01). Low-SES patients more often presented with synchronous peritoneal metastases (48% vs. 35%, p = 0.05). Following CRS HIPEC, low-SES patients had longer length of stay and higher burden of postoperative complications, 90-day readmission, and 30-day mortality. Median overall survival following CRS HIPEC was worse for low-SES patients (17.8 vs. 32.4 months, p = 0.02). This disparity persisted on multivariate survival analysis (low SES: HR = 1.46, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improving therapies for CRPM, low-SES patients remain at a significant disadvantage. Even patients who overcome barriers to care experience worse short- and long-term outcomes. Improving access and addressing these disparities is crucial to ensure equitable outcomes and improve patient care.

Development and validation of a five-factor score for prediction of pathologic pneumatosis

BACKGROUND

The significance of pneumatosis intestinalis (PI) remains challenging. While certain clinical scenarios are predictive of transmural ischemia, risk models to assess the presence of pathologic PI are needed. The aim of this study was to determine what patient factors at the time of radiographic diagnosis of PI predict the risk for pathologic PI.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study examining patients with PI from 2010 to 2016 at a multicenter hospital network. Multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model for pathologic PI in a derivation cohort. Using regression-coefficient-based methods, the final multivariate model was converted into a five-factor-based score. Calibration and discrimination of the score were then assessed in a validation cohort.

RESULTS

Of 305 patients analyzed, 102 (33.4%) had pathologic PI. We identified five factors associated with pathologic PI at the time of radiographic diagnosis: small bowel PI, age 70 years or older, heart rate 110 bpm or greater, lactate of 2 mmol/L or greater, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio 10 or greater. Using this model, patients in the validation cohort were assigned risk scores ranging from 0 to 11. Low-risk patients were categorized when scores are 0 to 4; intermediate, score of 5 to 6; high, score of 7 to 8; and very high risk, 9+. In the validation cohort, very high-risk patients (n = 17; 18.1%) had predicted rates of pathologic pneumatosis of 88.9% and an observed rate of 82.4%. In contrast, patients labeled as low risk (n = 37; 39.4%) had expected rates of pathologic pneumatosis of 1.3% and an observed rate of 0%. The model showed excellent discrimination (area under the curve, 0.90) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, p = 0.37).

CONCLUSION

Our score accurately stratifies patient risk of pathologic pneumatosis. This score has the potential to target high-risk individuals for expedient operation and spare low-risk individuals invasive interventions.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic Study, Level III.

Current Management of Appendiceal Neoplasms

Appendiceal neoplasms include a heterogeneous group of epithelial and nonepithelial tumors that exhibit varying malignant potential. This review article summarizes current diagnostic criteria, classification systems, and optimal therapeutic strategies for the five main histopathologic subtypes of appendiceal neoplasms. In particular, the management of epithelial appendiceal neoplasms has evolved. Although their treatment has historically been extrapolated from colon cancer, improved understanding of their unique histopathologic and molecular characteristics and a growing body of published clinical data support a more nuanced approach to their management.

A Pancreatic Cancer Multidisciplinary Clinic Eliminates Socioeconomic Disparities in Treatment and Improves Survival

AIMS

National studies have demonstrated disparities in the treatment and survival of pancreatic cancer patients based on socioeconomic status (SES). This study aimed to identify specific differences in perioperative management and outcomes based on patient SES and to study the role of a multidisciplinary clinic (MDC) in mitigating any variations.

METHODS

The study analyzed patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in a large hospital system. The patients were categorized into groups of high and low SES and whether they were managed by the authors' pancreatic cancer MDC or not. The study compared differences in disease characteristics, receipt of multimodality therapy, perioperative outcomes, and recurrence-free and overall survival.

RESULTS

Of the 162 low-SES patients and 119 high-SES patients, 54% were managed in the MDC. Outside the MDC, low-SES patients were less likely to receive neoadjuvant chemotherapy and had less minimally invasive surgery, a longer OR time, less enhanced recovery participation, and more major complications (p < 0.05). No SES disparities were observed among the MDC patients. Despite similar tumor characteristics, the low-SES patients had inferior median overall survival (21 vs 32 months; p = 0.005), but the MDC appeared to eliminate this disparity. Low SES correlated with inferior survival for the non-MDC patients (17 vs 32 months; p < 0.001), but not for the MDC patients (24 vs 25 months; p = 0.33). These findings persisted in the multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

A pancreatic cancer MDC standardizes treatment decisions, eliminates disparities in surgical outcomes, and improves survival for low-SES patients.

Predischarge Prediction of Readmission After Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy: Derivation and Validation of a Risk Prediction Score

BACKGROUND

Ninety-day hospital readmission rates following cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) range from 20 to 40%.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a simple score to predict readmissions following CRS/HIPEC.

STUDY DESIGN

Using a prospectively maintained database, we retrospectively reviewed clinicopathologic, perioperative, and day-of-discharge data for patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC for peritoneal surface malignancies between 2010 and 2018. In-hospital mortalities and discharges to hospice were excluded. Multivariate logistic regression was utilized to identify predictors of unplanned readmission, with three-quarters of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-quarter as the validation cohort. Using regression coefficient-based scoring methods, we developed a weighted 7-factor, 10-point predictive score for risk of readmission.

RESULTS

Overall, 1068 eligible discharges were analyzed; 379 patients were readmitted within 90 days (35.5%). Seven factors were associated with readmission: stoma creation, Peritoneal Cancer Index score ≥ 15, hyponatremia, in-hospital major complication, preoperative chemotherapy, anemia, and discharge to nursing home. In the validation cohort, 25 patients (9.2%) were categorized as high risk for readmission, with a predicted rate of readmission of 69.3% and an observed rate of 76.0%. The score had fair discrimination (area under the curve 0.70) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.77).

CONCLUSION

Our proposed risk score, easily obtainable on day of discharge, distinguishes patients at high risk for readmission over 90 days following CRS/HIPEC. This score has the potential to target high-risk individuals for intensive follow-up and other interventions.

Association Between Medicaid Expansion and Diagnosis and Management of Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

The Affordable Care Act facilitated improved insurance coverage for states that expanded Medicaid coverage, but the impact on cancer outcomes is unclear. This study compared changes in the diagnosis and management of colon cancer in states that did and did not participate in Medicaid expansion.

STUDY DESIGN

Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) approach, we analyzed Medicaid and uninsured patients in the National Cancer Data Base during 2 time periods: pre (2011-2012) and post expansion (2015-2016). Patients in non-expansion states were compared with those in January 2014 expansion states with regard to changes in patient and facility characteristics, cancer staging, treatment decisions, and surgical outcomes.

RESULTS

Along with increased Medicaid coverage (DID = 20.27; p < 0.001), patients in expansion states had an increase in stage I diagnoses (DID = 2.97; p = 0.035), distance traveled (miles, DID = 6.67; p = 0.005), and treatment at integrated network programs (DID = 2.67; p = 0.045). More early-stage patients were treated within 30 days (DID = 7.24; p = 0.035) and more stage IV patients received palliative care (DID = 5.01; p = 0.048). Among surgical patients, Medicaid expansion correlated with fewer urgent cases (< 7 days, DID = -5.88; p = 0.008) and more minimally invasive surgery (DID = 5.00; p = 0.022). There were no observed differences in postoperative outcomes or adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Medicaid expansion correlated with earlier diagnosis, enhanced access, and improved surgical care for colon cancer patients. These findings highlight the importance of improving health insurance coverage and can help guide future policy efforts.

CA19-9 Change During Neoadjuvant Therapy May Guide the Need for Additional Adjuvant Therapy Following Resected Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is increasingly utilized for pancreatic cancer, however the added benefit of adjuvant therapy (AT) in this setting is unknown. We hypothesized that the magnitude of CA19-9 response to NAT can guide the need for further AT in resected pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

CA19-9 secretors who received NAT for pancreatic cancer during 2008-2016 at a single institution were analyzed and CA19-9 response (difference between pre- and post-NAT values) was measured. Kaplan-Meier estimators and Cox proportional hazard ratio models were used to determine the optimal CA19-9 response at which AT ceases to confer any additional survival benefit after NAT.

RESULTS

A total of 241 patients (mean age 65.4 years, 50% female) with complete CA19-9 data who underwent NAT followed by resection were analyzed. In a cohort of patients (n = 78) in whom CA19-9 normalized with a decrease > 50% after NAT (optimal responders), AT was not associated with additional survival benefit (40.6 vs. 39.0 months, p = 0.815). Conversely, in the cohort of patients (n = 163) in whom NAT was not associated with normalization and a decrease of ≤ 50% in CA19-9 (suboptimal responders), receipt of AT was associated with a survival benefit (34.5 vs. 19.1 months, p < 0.001) following NAT. A Cox proportional hazards model confirmed CA19-9 normalization and decrease > 50% during NAT to predict no additional survival benefit from AT.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of CA19-9 response to NAT may predict the need for further AT in resected pancreatic cancer. Prospective studies are needed to elucidate the optimal interplay of NAT and AT in pancreatic cancer.

Prognostic Value of the Systemic Immune-Inflammation Index (SII) After Neoadjuvant Therapy for Patients with Resected Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

The systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), calculated using absolute platelet, neutrophil, and lymphocyte counts, has recently emerged as a predictor of survival for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) when assessed at diagnosis. Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is increasingly used in the treatment of PDAC. However, biomarkers of response are lacking. This study aimed to determine the prognostic significance of SII before and after NAT and its association with the pancreatic tumor biomarker carbohydrate-antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9).

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed all PDAC patients treated with NAT before pancreatic resection at a single institution between 2007 and 2017. Pre- and post-NAT lab values were collected to calculate SII. Absolute pre-NAT, post-NAT, and change in SII after NAT were evaluated for their association with clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

The study analyzed 419 patients and found no significant correlation between pre-NAT SII and clinical outcomes. Elevated post-NAT SII was an independent, negative predictor of overall survival (OS) when assessed as a continuous variable (hazard ratio [HR], 1.0001; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00003-1.00014; p = 0.006). Patients with a post-NAT SII greater than 900 had a shorter median OS (31.9 vs 26.1 months; p = 0.050), and a post-NAT SII greater than 900 also was an independent negative predictor of OS (HR, 1.369; 95% CI 1.019-1.838; p = 0.037). An 80% reduction in SII independently predicted a CA 19-9 response after NAT (HR, 4.22; 95% CI 1.209-14.750; p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

Post-treatment SII may be a useful prognostic marker in PDAC patients receiving NAT.

Correction to: Serum CA19-9 Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy Predicts Tumor Size Reduction and Survival in Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

In the original article, Caroline J. Rieser's last name is spelled wrong. It is correct as reflected here.

CA19-9 on Postoperative Surveillance in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: Predicting Recurrence and Changing Prognosis over Time

BACKGROUND

Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) correlates with response to therapy and overall survival (OS) for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to define the chronologic relationship between CA19-9 elevation and radiographic recurrence to develop a model that can predict the risk of recurrence (RFS) and prognosis during interval surveillance for patients with resected PDAC.

METHODS

A retrospective review examined patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic adenocarcinoma from January 2010 to May 2016. Their CA19-9 levels were classified at diagnosis, after surgery, and at 6-month surveillance intervals. Recurrence was defined by radiographic evidence. The CA19-9 levels were correlated with RFS and OS at every time point using multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The study examined 525 patients. Five patterns of CA19-9 were identified: normal ("nonsecretors," 18.5%), always elevated, and high at diagnosis but normal after resection involving three patterns with varied behavior during surveillance. These five patterns had implications for RFS and OS. When elevation of CA19-9, as assessed at 6-month intervals, was analyzed relative to detection of radiographic disease, CA19-9 had poor positive predictive value (average, 35%) but high negative predictive value (average, 92%) for radiographic recurrence. Conditional RFS showed that CA19-9 elevation did not equal radiographic recurrence but predicted subsequent RFS. Additionally, conditional OS showed that CA19-9 elevation alone was predictive at each time point.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that CA19-9 patterns beyond the post-resection period predict RFS and OS. High CA19-9 frequently is discordant with recurrence on imaging and may precede it by more than 6 months. At each surveillance interval, CA19-9 is predictive of prognosis, which may help in counseling patients and could be used to direct protocols of salvage chemotherapy.