Comparing ancestry calibration approaches for a trans-ancestry colorectal cancer polygenic risk score

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a complex disease with monogenic, polygenic and environmental risk factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are being developed to identify high polygenic risk individuals. Due to differences in genetic background, PRS distributions vary by ancestry, necessitating calibration.

Methods

We compared four calibration methods using the All of Us Research Program Whole Genome Sequence data for a CRC PRS previously developed in participants of European and East Asian ancestry. The methods contrasted results from linear models with A) the entire data set or an ancestrally diverse training set AND B) covariates including principal components of ancestry or admixture. Calibration with the training set adjusted the variance in addition to the mean.

Results

All methods performed similarly within ancestry with OR (95% C.I.) per s.d. change in PRS: African 1.5 (1.02, 2.08), Admixed American 2.2 (1.27, 3.85), European 1.6 (1.43, 1.89), and Middle Eastern 1.1 (0.71, 1.63). Using admixture and an ancestrally diverse training set provided distributions closest to standard Normal with accurate upper tail frequencies.

Conclusion

Although the PRS is predictive of CRC risk for most ancestries, its performance varies by ancestry. Post-hoc calibration preserves the risk prediction within ancestries. Training a calibration model on ancestrally diverse participants to adjust both the mean and variance of the PRS, using admixture as covariates, created standard Normal z-scores. These z-scores can be used to identify patients at high polygenic risk, and can be incorporated into comprehensive risk scores including other known risk factors, allowing for more precise risk estimates.

Genomic data in the All of Us Research Program

Comprehensively mapping the genetic basis of human disease across diverse individuals is a long-standing goal for the field of human genetics1-4. The All of Us Research Program is a longitudinal cohort study aiming to enrol a diverse group of at least one million individuals across the USA to accelerate biomedical research and improve human health5,6. Here we describe the programme's genomics data release of 245,388 clinical-grade genome sequences. This resource is unique in its diversity as 77% of participants are from communities that are historically under-represented in biomedical research and 46% are individuals from under-represented racial and ethnic minorities. All of Us identified more than 1 billion genetic variants, including more than 275 million previously unreported genetic variants, more than 3.9 million of which had coding consequences. Leveraging linkage between genomic data and the longitudinal electronic health record, we evaluated 3,724 genetic variants associated with 117 diseases and found high replication rates across both participants of European ancestry and participants of African ancestry. Summary-level data are publicly available, and individual-level data can be accessed by researchers through the All of Us Researcher Workbench using a unique data passport model with a median time from initial researcher registration to data access of 29 hours. We anticipate that this diverse dataset will advance the promise of genomic medicine for all.

Selection, optimization and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse US populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have improved in predictive performance, but several challenges remain to be addressed before PRSs can be implemented in the clinic, including reduced predictive performance of PRSs in diverse populations, and the interpretation and communication of genetic results to both providers and patients. To address these challenges, the National Human Genome Research Institute-funded Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) Network has developed a framework and pipeline for return of a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children as part of a clinical study. From an initial list of 23 conditions, ten were selected for implementation based on PRS performance, medical actionability and potential clinical utility, including cardiometabolic diseases and cancer. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process, with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. We then developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation (score transfer to a clinical laboratory, validation and verification of score performance), and used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, utilizing genetically diverse data from 13,475 participants of the All of Us Research Program cohort to train and test model parameters. Finally, we created a framework for regulatory compliance and developed a PRS clinical report for return to providers and for inclusion in an additional genome-informed risk assessment. The initial experience from eMERGE can inform the approach needed to implement PRS-based testing in diverse clinical settings.

Detection of Copy-Number Variation in Circulating Cell-Free DNA in Patients With Uveal Melanoma

PURPOSE

Somatic chromosomal alterations, particularly monosomy 3 and 8q gains, have been associated with metastatic risk in uveal melanoma (UM). Whole genome-scale evaluation of detectable alterations in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in UM could provide valuable prognostic information. Our pilot study evaluates the correlation between genomic information using ultra-low-pass whole-genome sequencing (ULP-WGS) of cfDNA in UM and associated clinical outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

ULP-WGS of cfDNA was performed on 29 plasma samples from 16 patients, 14 metastatic UM (mUM) and two non-metastatic, including pre- and post-treatment mUM samples from 10 patients treated with immunotherapy and one with liver-directed therapy. We estimated tumor fraction (TFx) and detected copy-number alterations (CNAs) using ichorCNA. Presence of 8q amplification was further analyzed using the likelihood ratio test (LRT).

RESULTS

Eleven patients with mUM (17 samples) of 14 had detectable circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). 8q gain was detected in all 17, whereas monosomy 3 was detectable in 10 of 17 samples. TFx generally correlated with disease status, showing an increase at the time of disease progression (PD). 8q gain detection sensitivity appeared greater with the LRT than with ichorCNA at lower TFxs. The only patient with mUM with partial response on treatment had a high pretreatment TFx and undetectable on-treatment ctDNA, correlating with her profound response and durable survival.

CONCLUSION

ctDNA can be detected in mUM using ULP-WGS, and the TFx correlates with DS. 8q gain was consistently detectable in mUM, in line with previous studies indicating 8q gains early in primary UM and higher amplification with PD. Our work suggests that detection of CNAs by ULP-WGS, particularly focusing on 8q gain, could be a valuable blood biomarker to monitor PD in UM.

Selection, optimization, and validation of ten chronic disease polygenic risk scores for clinical implementation in diverse populations

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have improved in predictive performance supporting their use in clinical practice. Reduced predictive performance of PRS in diverse populations can exacerbate existing health disparities. The NHGRI-funded eMERGE Network is returning a PRS-based genome-informed risk assessment to 25,000 diverse adults and children. We assessed PRS performance, medical actionability, and potential clinical utility for 23 conditions. Standardized metrics were considered in the selection process with additional consideration given to strength of evidence in African and Hispanic populations. Ten conditions were selected with a range of high-risk thresholds: atrial fibrillation, breast cancer, chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, hypercholesterolemia, prostate cancer, asthma, type 1 diabetes, obesity, and type 2 diabetes. We developed a pipeline for clinical PRS implementation, used genetic ancestry to calibrate PRS mean and variance, created a framework for regulatory compliance, and developed a PRS clinical report. eMERGE's experience informs the infrastructure needed to implement PRS-based implementation in diverse clinical settings.

Returning integrated genomic risk and clinical recommendations: The eMERGE study

PURPOSE

Assessing the risk of common, complex diseases requires consideration of clinical risk factors as well as monogenic and polygenic risks, which in turn may be reflected in family history. Returning risks to individuals and providers may influence preventive care or use of prophylactic therapies for those individuals at high genetic risk.

METHODS

To enable integrated genetic risk assessment, the eMERGE (electronic MEdical Records and GEnomics) network is enrolling 25,000 diverse individuals in a prospective cohort study across 10 sites. The network developed methods to return cross-ancestry polygenic risk scores, monogenic risks, family history, and clinical risk assessments via a genome-informed risk assessment (GIRA) report and will assess uptake of care recommendations after return of results.

RESULTS

GIRAs include summary care recommendations for 11 conditions, education pages, and clinical laboratory reports. The return of high-risk GIRA to individuals and providers includes guidelines for care and lifestyle recommendations. Assembling the GIRA required infrastructure and workflows for ingesting and presenting content from multiple sources. Recruitment began in February 2022.

CONCLUSION

Return of a novel report for communicating monogenic, polygenic, and family history-based risk factors will inform the benefits of integrated genetic risk assessment for routine health care.

Genome-wide polygenic score to predict chronic kidney disease across ancestries

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common complex condition associated with high morbidity and mortality. Polygenic prediction could enhance CKD screening and prevention; however, this approach has not been optimized for ancestrally diverse populations. By combining APOL1 risk genotypes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of kidney function, we designed, optimized and validated a genome-wide polygenic score (GPS) for CKD. The new GPS was tested in 15 independent cohorts, including 3 cohorts of European ancestry (n = 97,050), 6 cohorts of African ancestry (n = 14,544), 4 cohorts of Asian ancestry (n = 8,625) and 2 admixed Latinx cohorts (n = 3,625). We demonstrated score transferability with reproducible performance across all tested cohorts. The top 2% of the GPS was associated with nearly threefold increased risk of CKD across ancestries. In African ancestry cohorts, the APOL1 risk genotype and polygenic component of the GPS had additive effects on the risk of CKD.

Development and validation of a trans-ancestry polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes in diverse populations

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a worldwide scourge caused by both genetic and environmental risk factors that disproportionately afflicts communities of color. Leveraging existing large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS), polygenic risk scores (PRS) have shown promise to complement established clinical risk factors and intervention paradigms, and improve early diagnosis and prevention of T2D. However, to date, T2D PRS have been most widely developed and validated in individuals of European descent. Comprehensive assessment of T2D PRS in non-European populations is critical for equitable deployment of PRS to clinical practice that benefits global populations.

METHODS

We integrated T2D GWAS in European, African, and East Asian populations to construct a trans-ancestry T2D PRS using a newly developed Bayesian polygenic modeling method, and assessed the prediction accuracy of the PRS in the multi-ethnic Electronic Medical Records and Genomics (eMERGE) study (11,945 cases; 57,694 controls), four Black cohorts (5137 cases; 9657 controls), and the Taiwan Biobank (4570 cases; 84,996 controls). We additionally evaluated a post hoc ancestry adjustment method that can express the polygenic risk on the same scale across ancestrally diverse individuals and facilitate the clinical implementation of the PRS in prospective cohorts.

RESULTS

The trans-ancestry PRS was significantly associated with T2D status across the ancestral groups examined. The top 2% of the PRS distribution can identify individuals with an approximately 2.5-4.5-fold of increase in T2D risk, which corresponds to the increased risk of T2D for first-degree relatives. The post hoc ancestry adjustment method eliminated major distributional differences in the PRS across ancestries without compromising its predictive performance.

CONCLUSIONS

By integrating T2D GWAS from multiple populations, we developed and validated a trans-ancestry PRS, and demonstrated its potential as a meaningful index of risk among diverse patients in clinical settings. Our efforts represent the first step towards the implementation of the T2D PRS into routine healthcare.

Search for Boosted Dark Matter Interacting with Electrons in Super-Kamiokande

A search for boosted dark matter using 161.9 kt yr of Super-Kamiokande IV data is presented. We search for an excess of elastically scattered electrons above the atmospheric neutrino background, with a visible energy between 100 MeV and 1 TeV, pointing back to the Galactic center or the Sun. No such excess is observed. Limits on boosted dark matter event rates in multiple angular cones around the Galactic center and Sun are calculated. Limits are also calculated for a baseline model of boosted dark matter produced from cold dark matter annihilation or decay. This is the first experimental search for boosted dark matter from the Galactic center or the Sun interacting in a terrestrial detector.

Search for Nucleon and Dinucleon Decays with an Invisible Particle and a Charged Lepton in the Final State at the Super-Kamiokande Experiment

Search results for nucleon decays p→e^{+}X, p→μ^{+}X, n→νγ (where X is an invisible, massless particle) as well as dinucleon decays np→e^{+}ν, np→μ^{+}ν, and np→τ^{+}ν in the Super-Kamiokande experiment are presented. Using single-ring data from an exposure of  273.4  kton·yr, a search for these decays yields a result consistent with no signal. Accordingly, lower limits on the partial lifetimes of τ_{p→e^{+}X}>7.9×10^{32} yr, τ_{p→μ^{+}X}>4.1×10^{32} yr, τ_{n→νγ}>5.5×10^{32} yr, τ_{np→e^{+}ν}>2.6×10^{32}  yr, τ_{np→μ^{+}ν}>2.2×10^{32} yr, and τ_{np→τ^{+}ν}>2.9×10^{31} yr at a 90% confidence level are obtained. Some of these searches are novel.

Comparison of sampling and culture methods for the diagnosis of Tritrichomonas foetus infection in bulls

Sampling methods for preputial secretions and culture methods for Tritrichomonas foetus were compared in a two-by-two factorial experiment. Fourteen bulls were confirmed as infected by repeated weekly sampling and culture on Diamond's medium over the course of 10 months. In a six-week test of alternative methods of diagnosis, the bulls were randomly assigned to have their preputial contents sampled weekly either by washing or by scraping of the preputial membrane. The samples were cultured on Claussen's medium and in InPouch packets at 37 degrees C in air for seven days. The results were compared by McNemar's chi 2 test for symmetry. Washing yielded 69 positive cultures from 84 samples whereas scraping yielded 65 from 83. These differences were not statistically significant. InPouch culture detected 73 of 83 samples from positive bulls, whereas Claussen's medium detected 61 of 83. The difference in sensitivity between the two culture methods was highly significant (P = 0.0027), with the InPouch method 'missing' two positive samples that were detected by Claussen's medium and Claussen's medium missing 14 positive samples that were detected by InPouch culture.