Comparison of discriminatory power and accuracy of three lung cancer risk models

Background:

Three lung cancer (LC) models have recently been constructed to predict an individual's absolute risk of LC within a defined period. Given their potential application in prevention strategies, a comparison of their accuracy in an independent population is important.

Methods:

We used data for 3197 patients with LC and 1703 cancer-free controls recruited to an ongoing case–control study at the Harvard School of Public Health and Massachusetts General Hospital. We estimated the 5-year LC risk for each risk model and compared the discriminatory power, accuracy, and clinical utility of these models.

Results:

Overall, the Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) and Spitz models had comparable discriminatory power (0.69), whereas the Bach model had significantly lower power (0.66; P=0.02). Positive predictive values were highest with the Spitz models, whereas negative predictive values were highest with the LLP model. The Spitz and Bach models had lower sensitivity but better specificity than did the LLP model.

Conclusion:

We observed modest differences in discriminatory power among the three LC risk models, but discriminatory powers were moderate at best, highlighting the difficulty in developing effective risk models.

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) gene polymorphism, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) risk

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Background: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of key cancer genes, such as EGF A61G, are associated with an elevated risk of EAC, but the lack of full penetrance indicates that the effects of these SNPs on esophageal carcinogenesis are modified by additional genetic or environmental variables. Since GERD is an established risk factor for EAC, we evaluated whether the association between EGF polymorphism and EAC development is altered by the presence of GERD. Methods: EGF genotyping of DNA samples was performed and GERD history was collected for 309 EAC patients and 275 matched healthy controls. Associations between genotypes and EAC risk were examined with adjusted logistic regression. Genotype-GERD relationships were explored using analyses stratified by GERD history and joint effects models that considered severity and duration of GERD symptoms. Results: Baseline characteristics were comparable between cases and controls except that EGF variants (A/G or G/G) were more common (p=0.02) and GERD was more prevalent (p<0.001) in cases than in controls. When compared to the EGF wild type A/A genotype, the G/G variant was associated with an increased risk of EAC (OR 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2–3.0; p=0.007). Stratified analyses revealed that the G/G variant contributed to a substantial increase in EAC risk among individuals with GERD, but a slight decrease in risk for GERD-free individuals (see table). In the joint effects models, the odds of EAC was also highest for G/G patients who either experienced frequent GERD of more than once per week (OR 21.8; 95% CI, 5.1–94.0; p<0.001) or suffered GERD for longer than 15 years (OR 22.4; 95% CI, 6.5–77.6; p<0.001). There was a highly significant interaction between the G/G genotype and the presence of GERD (p<0.001). Conclusions: EGF A61G polymorphism exerts its effect on EAC susceptibility through an interaction with GERD. Performing EGF genotyping for patients with severe or longstanding GERD can help to identify individuals at the greatest risk of EAC. [Table: see text]

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Association of petrochemical exposure with spontaneous abortion

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between petrochemical exposure and spontaneous abortion, a retrospective epidemiological study in a large petrochemical complex in Beijing, China was conducted.

METHODS

Plant employment records identified 3105 women who were married, were 20-44 years of age, and had never smoked. Of those, 3070 women (98.8%) reported at least one pregnancy. From this group, 2853 (93%) of the women participated in the study. According to their plant employment record, about 57% of these women workers reported occupational exposure to petrochemicals during the first trimester of their pregnancy. Trained interviewers administered a standardised questionnaire to this group of women and their husbands, collecting information on reproductive history, pregnancy outcomes, employment history, occupational exposure, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, indoor air pollution, and demographic variables. The results from the womens' first pregnancies were analysed.

RESULTS

There was a significantly increased risk of spontaneous abortion for women working in all of the production plants with frequent exposure to petrochemicals (8.8%; range of 5.8%-9.8%) compared with those working in nonchemical plants (2.2%; range of 0.0%-7.1%). Also, when a comparison was made between exposed and non-exposed groups within each plant, exposure to petrochemicals was consistently associated with an increased risk of spontaneous abortion. The overall odds ratio (OR) was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.8 to 3.9) after adjusting for potential confounders. When the analysis was performed with the exposure information obtained from the women' interview responses for (self reported) exposures, the estimated OR for spontaneous abortions was 2.9 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.0). The analysis was repeated by excluding those 452 women who provided inconsistent reports between recalled exposure and work history, and a comparable risk of spontaneous abortion (OR 2.9; 95% CI 2.0 to 4.4) was found. In analyses for exposure to specific chemicals, an increased risk of spontaneous abortion was found with exposure to most chemicals, and the results for benzene (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.7 to 3.7), gasoline (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), and hydrogen sulphide (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.2 to 4.4) were significant.

CONCLUSION

An increased risk of spontaneous abortion was found associated with the exposure to petrochemicals, including benzene, gasoline, and hydrogen sulphide.

Conceptual and definitional issues in occupational injury epidemiology

This paper presents several models that further define the concept of occupational injury. While traditional models have proved successful in isolating specific research questions and health phenomena, the conceptual model presented permits a broader view of all injury morbidity. This model is based on both the level and frequency of energy transfers. A process model of occupational injury is also presented to describe the basic pathophysiological relationships associated with tissue effects/damage and recovery/repair. Numerous tradeoffs exist in variable selection, and a third model explores some of these tradeoffs. Differences in terminology and fundamental principles can limit the progress of occupational injury research. Accordingly, an argument is made for consolidation and consensus of terms. Finally, considerations for research are suggested, with an emphasis on the severity of the injury, the risk ratio, and the population at risk.

Expression of inducible nitric oxide synthase by macrophages in rat lung

Nitric oxide (NO) is a short-lived free radical that is secreted by pulmonary macrophages (Mø). An inducible isoform of NO synthase (iNOS) catalyses the production of NO and is activated by lipopolysaccharide and certain T-helper(h) 1 cytokines, including interferon-gamma and TNF-alpha. In the present study, iNOS+ interstitial cells were demonstrated in the alveolar wall of normal Lewis rat lung. Enzymatic digests of normal lung showed that approximately one third of pulmonary ED1+ interstitial Mø (IM) were iNOS+ and secreted modest amounts of NO without ex vivo stimulation, whereas normal alveolar macrophages (AM) were iNOS- and showed no basal NO secretion. When incubated with heat-killed Listeria monocytogenes (HKL) in vitro, AM secreted larger amounts of NO than did IM. Recombinant murine GM-CSF stimulated production of NO by AM but not by IM. However, when IM were costimulated with GM-CSF and IFN-gamma, they expressed a marked increase in NO production. Intratracheal challenge with HKL yielded decreased NO production by IM. We conclude that iNOS+ IM are present in normal rat lung, where they regulate the pulmonary cell-mediated immune response to antigen.

Treatment and survival in diffuse malignant pleural mesothelioma; a study of 83 cases from the Massachusetts General Hospital

The influence of treatment on clinical outcome in pleural mesothelioma (PM) is uncertain. We studied 83 patients with PM treated at our institution to evaluate the impact of treatment modality on survival, Methods. Medical records of 83 patients with PM treated between 1978 and 1994 were reviewed. The following data were tabulated for each patient; age, sex, date of diagnosis, history of asbestos exposure, smoking history, method of diagnosis, histologic subtype, type of treatment and survival from diagnosis. Four treatment groups were analyzed; chemotherapy (C), surgery (S), combined modality (CM i.e. S + C with or without radiation therapy) and supportive care alone (SC). Survival curves were calculated and adjustment made for age. Survival curves were compared using Wilcoxon Chi-square analysis. Results. Seventy-one males and 12 females with a mean age of 67 years were analyzed. Seventy-five percent were smokers and 74% reported definite or probable asbestos exposure. Treatment groups did not vary according to smoking or asbestos history. The CM group and SC groups contained similar proportions of patients with epithelial tumors (54% v 56%). Median survival for patients in the CM group was 23.9 months versus 4.5 months among those receiving SC (p < 0.01). Discussion. This analysis suggest prolonged survival among patients with PM receiving CM versus SC or single modality treatment.

Parental cancer and genetic predisposition in malignant pleural mesothelioma: a case-control study

Familial clustering of pleural mesothelioma (PM) has been previously reported suggesting that genetic factors (predisposition) may be involved in PM. We studied parental cancer history in a cohort of 39 cases of PM and 259 age matched controls to assess the possible influence of family history on PM risk. Cases consisted of 39 patients with PM treated at our institution between 1978 and 1993. An age frequency matched control group (by 5-year age groups) consisted of 259 subjects who were spouses or friends of patients undergoing resection of primary lung cancer. Data were obtained by interview of controls and interview of the patient or next of kin (usually spouse) for cases. The following data were obtained using a standard questionnaire and medical record review; age, sex, date of diagnosis, history of asbestos exposure, smoking history, method of diagnosis, histologic subtype, type of treatment, parental cancer history and tumor type. Cases and control frequency of parental cancer and site specific tumor frequency were compared using chi-square analysis. Twenty-eight (71%) cases reported a parental history of cancer versus 114 (44%) in the control group (P<0.01). Gastrointestinal malignancies were the predominant tumor type among parents of cases, i.e. 11 cases (40%) versus 25% of controls (P<0.01). No other tumor site showed an increased frequency among cases. These data suggest a possible role for family history in the development of PM. Genetic predisposition may be important in the etiology of this tumor.

The left-sided predominance of asbestos-related pleural disease

In a series of 406 subjects with a diagnosis of asbestos-related pleural disease (ARPD), the left-right symmetry of radiographically diagnosed ARPD was assessed using the International Labour Organization (ILO) system for classifying radiographic abnormalities and three different statistical models for testing the degree of symmetry. The extent of chest disease was found to be greater on the left than on the right for a number of parameters of pleural disease, including the width and extent of localized pleural thickening, the extent of enface pleural thickening, and the extent of diaphragmatic and chest wall calcification. Current cigarette smoking significantly enhanced the observed asymmetry, with the most pronounced effect being in diaphragmatic calcification. Using a composite scale for each subject's pleural disease, the left side had 1.6 times more localized disease than did the right (p < 0.001). Asymmetry in one parameter was associated with asymmetry in another for a number of pairs. The most significant of these associations was between enface pleural thickening and chest wall calcification (Kendall's tau B = 0.42). The pathophysiologic mechanisms that explain these findings remain elusive and need further investigation.

A clinical diagnostic model for the assessment of asbestosis: a new algorithmic approach

Asbestosis, one of the pneumoconioses that is defined by a set of clinical, radiographic, and pathologic findings, occurs as a result of exposure to asbestos fibers. Several approaches have attempted to describe the presence, progression, or extent of asbestosis. However, these approaches have attempted to describe the presence, progression, or extent of asbestosis. However, these approaches have limitations or lack correlations with other diagnostic modalities. We propose a comprehensive clinical diagnostic model that uses the sensitivities and specificities of the various clinical, radiographic, and pathologic findings to generate a set of "likelihood numbers." These likelihood numbers, contribute to the calculation of a value that can indicate the probability of asbestosis. The clinical diagnostic model is heuristic in that a specific feature supportive of the diagnosis of asbestosis may be tested as to its sensitivity and specificity, and new features may be added to the model. The model also indicates how probabilistic a given set of findings is in the diagnosis of asbestosis and suggests what additional data may make the diagnosis more or less statistically probable. Regarding the radiologic considerations of asbestosis, the strength of the clinical diagnostic model is that it is capable of supporting a diagnosis of asbestosis in the presence of a normal chest radiograph and, conversely, may reject the diagnosis of asbestosis despite the radiographic finding of pulmonary fibrosis.